*Article* **Suitable Pattern of the Natural Environment of Human Settlements in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River**

#### **Fan Song, Xiaohua Yang \* and Feifei Wu**

State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 201621180014@mail.bnu.edu.cn (F.S.); wufeifei\_bnu@163.com (F.W.) **\*** Correspondence: xiaohuayang@bnu.edu.cn; Tel.: +86-010-5880-6050

Received: 27 February 2019; Accepted: 9 April 2019; Published: 12 April 2019

**Abstract:** The human settlement environment is the object on which human survival depends. In this study, six single factor suitability models and a comprehensive index model of the human settlement natural environment were established. The six single factor models included topography, hydrology, vegetation, soil, temperature and humidity, and land surface temperature. This study took 1 km × 1 km as the pixel size and relied on the ArcGIS platform to systematically and quantitatively evaluate the human settlement environment of the lower reaches of the Yangtze river. The results show that: (1) From the evaluation results of single natural elements, the topography of the study area is relatively flat, with a small number of hydraulic erosion areas. Besides, there are significant differences between the north and the south in temperature and humidity, hydrology, vegetation, and land surface temperature. (2) In 2015, the most suitable areas of human settlement environment were mainly distributed in the plains along the Yangtze river, the plain of northern Zhejiang, and the Poyang plain. The most unsuitable areas are mainly distributed in mountainous areas, such as the mountain area of southern Zhejiang and Dabie mountain area. Topography and vegetation are the dominant factors for classification. (3) From the perspective of space, the score of the human settlement natural environment in Shanghai is above the average, and the best among the other provinces is Jiangsu province, while Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces have little difference. From the perspective of time, the overall level of the suitability in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river has been improved from 2005 to 2015, mainly due to the influence of temperature and humidity index and water resource index.

**Keywords:** human settlement suitability; human settlement natural environment index; GIS; lower reaches of Yangtze River

#### **1. Introduction**

The human settlement environment is the place where people work, live, and play. It is also the dependent object of human survival and the main transformation object of human activities [1]. The quality of the human settlement environment not only directly affects the residents' living experience, but also indirectly affects the economic and social progress of a region. The earliest research on the human settlement environment was in 1958, when the Greek scholar Doxiadis established the science of human settlement and conducted a lot of basic research on the problems of the human settlement environment [2]. The second Habitat Conference of United Nations in the 1990s put forward the "Habitat Agenda"; there were two important issues: "comfortable housing for everyone" and "sustainable development of human settlements in the process of urbanization". This indicated that sustainable human settlements should be established in a human living environment so that human beings can enjoy a harmonious, healthy, and fulfilling life with nature. In the 21st century, the

concept of sustainable development has become the guiding ideology of the research on the human settlement environment. In recent years, many international scholars have done a lot of research on the sustainable development of a human settlement environment from multiple perspectives. For example, Muhammad Rusdi et al. [3] assessed the land suitability of the Banda Aceh, Indonesia region 10 years after the tsunami. The study was conducted primarily from the perspective of soil permeability, topography, and geology, so as to determine the level of suitability of the area for human habitat. Safa Mazahreh et al. [4] made a land suitability map in Jordan through an approach that integrated soil and climatic data. The analyses not only identified key factors limiting land use but also provided the type of land use for which the region was suitable. Walter Musakwa [5] and Ingrida Bagdanaviˇciut¯ e [ ˙ 6], respectively, established evaluation standards from the perspectives of nature-society and pollution sources, and then selected the most suitable areas for human settlement in their respective study areas, so as to provide a basis for land reform and creation of smart cities. Although their researches have their own emphases, they all make great contributions to the study of human settlement.

In China, the research on the human settlement environment started in the 1990s. Tsinghua University established the research center for human settlements in 1995. Professor Wu Liang-yong classified the human settlement environment system into five systems: natural system, human system, social system, residential system, and supporting system [7,8]. Around these five systems, scholars in different fields have conducted a lot of studies from different perspectives. Scholars in the field of architecture are more focused on the study of the residential system and support system, among the five major systems, while sociologists are more concerned with human systems and social systems [9], and environmental and ecologists are more inclined to study natural systems. There are also some scholars who study complex systems [10]. A review article by MA Ren-feng gave a detailed description of the history and current situation of research on the human settlement environment in China [11], and the evaluation method of human settlement natural environment suitability, introduced in the article, is also the main idea of this paper.

In addition to the system divisions described above, the research on the human settlement environment can also be divided from the spatial scale, which can be divided into five scales including global, regional, urban, community, and architecture [12]. Numerous classifications have also generated numerous research methods. Currently, the commonly used method is analysis in Geographic Information System. At the same time, many mathematical methods such as fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [13], factor analysis [14], and genetic algorithm [15] have been applied in this field. With the development and maturity of Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing technology, it is possible to show the advantages and disadvantages of the human settlement environment with pictures and texts. The joint analysis of GIS tool and other methods is also gradually developed [16], which is of great significance to the research on the human settlement environment suitability.

Natural system is the basic system of the human settlement environment, which directly relates to human health and body surface feeling, and indirectly constitutes the construction foundation of other systems. Among the numerous natural factors, this study selects some basic elements that are most closely related to human survival and life, including six natural elements: topography, hydrology, vegetation, soil, temperature and humidity, and land surface temperature. On the basis of the study of each individual element, the model of the human settlement natural environment index (HNEI) is established, and different weights are assigned to each element according to the actual situation of the research area. The lower reaches of the Yangtze river are one of the most developed regions in China. During a long period of economic development, a series of resource and environmental problems have emerged. The purpose of this study is as follows: 1. To reveal the spatial pattern of the human settlement natural environment suitability of five provinces in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river; 2. to explore the advantage and restriction of the human settlement environment in this region, so as to provide the corresponding research basis and decision-making support for local population spatial planning and land function planning.

#### **2. Study Area**

The study area covered the lower reaches of the Yangtze river, including five provincial-level administrative regions of Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, with a total of 51 prefecture-level cities and one municipality directly under the central government. The region is located in longitude E113◦34 –E123◦25 and latitude N24◦29 –N35◦20 . The total area is about 526,080 km2. The location of the study area is shown in Figure 1. At the end of 2016, the permanent resident population of the five provinces was about 267.82 million, accounting for 19.37% of the total population of China, with a high population density. Most of the region is located in the economic radiation zone of the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze river delta. Relying on the excellent geographical advantages and economic foundation, the study area has become the region with the highest urbanization level and the most developed economy in China. Most of the region belongs to the subtropical monsoon climate zone, with obvious monsoon characteristics. In the process of rapid urbanization in this region, a lot of resources and environmental problems have been caused, resulting in great changes in the natural environment. In this study, the grid of 1 × 1 km was taken as the basic unit, which can satisfy the analysis of different spatial scales, so as to make an appropriate evaluation of the natural suitability of human settlement.

**Figure 1.** Location of study area.

#### **3. Materials and Methods**

#### *3.1. Data Sources*

The six indexes selected in this study were: relief degree of land surface (RDLS), water resource index (WRI), land cover index (LCI), soil suitability index (SSI), temperature–humidity index (THI), and land surface temperature index (LSTI). The data used for calculation included: digital elevation model data, land use data, annual precipitation spatial interpolation data, normalized difference vegetation index data [17], soil erosion spatial distribution data [18], annual data for natural indicators of weather stations, and MODIS land surface temperature data. The data types, year of data, and data source are shown in the Table 1.


**Table 1.** Details of the data.

#### *3.2. Methods of Single Factor Model*

#### 3.2.1. Relief Degree of Land Surface

Relief degree of land surface refers to the difference between the highest and lowest elevations in an area. It reflects the macroscopic changes of the region's terrain, which is of great reference value for the site selection of human settlements [19]. The key to calculate RDLS is to determine the size of the reference area, which can well express the topographic characteristics of the study area. Referring to the research results of Feng Zhi-ming [20], Wang Yong-li [21], and other scholars, the formula of RDLS established in this paper is as follows:

$$RDLS = ALT/1000 + \{ [\text{max}(\text{H}) - \text{min}(\text{H})] \times [1 - P(\text{A})/\text{A}] \}/500\tag{1}$$

where, ALT refers to the average altitude within the selected reference area; Max(H) and min(H) refer to the highest and lowest elevations within the reference area; P(A) refers to the flat area within the reference area, whose slope is less than 5◦; A refers to the total area of the reference area; and 500 refers to China's benchmark mountain height.

The neighborhood analysis method based on raster data was used to calculate the size of the reference area [22]. The neighborhood analysis tool of ArcGIS was used to analyze the altitude difference within the grid, from 3 × 3 pixels to 69 × 69 pixels. According to the calculation results, the scatter diagram of the corresponding relationship between the grid size and the altitude difference was established, and the logarithmic function of the curve equation was determined. The size of the reference area grid can be determined according to the change of curve growth rate. In this study, the determined optimal grid size was 19 <sup>×</sup> 19 (2.92 km2). According to Formula (1), the RDLS of the lower reaches of the Yangtze river can be obtained. The result in 2015 is shown in Figure 3a.

#### 3.2.2. Water Resource Index

Water is the source of life, and the basic need of human settlement construction and development. Although the lower reaches of the Yangtze river are relatively rich in water resources, they are unevenly distributed. In order to express this difference, referred to the environmental assessment standards of the ministry of environmental protection of the People's Republic of China, and relevant research results [23,24], we selected two indexes of "rainfall" and "distance from water source" to build the water resource index model. The formula of WRI is as follows:

$$\text{WRI} = \text{aP} + \beta \text{D} \tag{2}$$

where P is the normalized rainfall; D is the normalized distance from the water source; A and B are the weights of two factors, which are respectively 0.8 and 0.2 in this study. In order to reduce the contingency of data, the average rainfall in 2004–2006, 2009–2011, and 2014–2016 was used as the values in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. The required water source location was obtained by extracting the "water area" type in the land use data and the "Euclidean Distance" in ArcGIS was used to calculate the "distance from water source". In this paper, the distance within 10 km from the water source was calculated and reversely normalized, and the value of the remaining areas was assigned to zero. The calculation result in 2015 is shown in Figure 3b.

#### 3.2.3. Land Cover Index

Land is an important material for human survival and development. Land coverage and utilization not only affect the stability of natural ecosystem, but also continuously affect the development of social economy [25]. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization, inappropriate land use has become more and more serious. Inappropriate land use has become a problem of universal concern, among which vegetation cover has been a hot topic. Vegetation is an important intermediate link connecting the atmospheric environment, soil environment, and water environment, which can regulate the climate and have a significant impact on the human settlement environment [26]. In this paper, the land cover index model was constructed by referring to the ecological environment evaluation standard of the State Environmental Protection Administration [27] and previous research results [24]:

$$LCI = LT\_{\bar{i}} \times NDVI \tag{3}$$

where, *LTi* refers to the weight of each land use type, and *NDVI* refers to the normalized difference vegetation index.

According to the research purpose, relevant literatures [28,29] and technical specifications, weight was assigned to each land use type, and the results are shown in Table 2. Then, the land cover index can be obtained according to Formula (3). The calculation result in 2015 is shown in Figure 3c.


**Table 2.** Weight of each land use type.

#### 3.2.4. Soil Suitability Index

Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem, which not only damages land resources and affects normal industrial and agricultural behaviors, but also may aggravate drought and waterlogging. It is one of the important evaluation indexes of the human settlement environment [30]. China is one of the countries with serious soil erosion, which has affected the economic and social development. It can be known from the existing studies that soil erosion exists in some areas of the study area, especially in Jiangxi province [31,32]. Therefore, soil erosion was taken as an evaluation index in this study. We used soil erosion data for reclassification to obtain soil suitability index of five provinces in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river, as shown in Figure 3d.

#### 3.2.5. Temperature–Humidity Index

Among the many climatic elements, air temperature directly affects the exchange of heat and water between human body and the outside world, so the air temperature directly affects the comfort degree of human body. Due to the difference in humidity between the north and the south, there will be a difference in apparent temperature [33]. Therefore, this study adopted the widely used temperature–humidity index (THI) to express this effect [34,35], so as to reflect the temperature suitability through the comprehensive effect of temperature and humidity. The calculation formula is as follows:

$$\begin{cases} THI = \mathcal{T} - 0.55(1 - f)(\mathcal{T} - 58) \\ \mathcal{T} = 1.8t + 32 \end{cases} \tag{4}$$

where t is Celsius, T is Fahrenheit, and *f* is relative humidity. In order to reduce the contingency of data, the average temperature and relative humidity data in 2004–2006, 2009–2011, and 2014–2016 was used as the values in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Firstly, the location of weather stations in the study area and the corresponding temperature and humidity information were input in ArcGIS. The locations of weather stations are shown in Figure 2. After data processing, the kriging interpolating model was used to carry out spatial interpolation processing in five provinces, and the spatial distribution data of various climatic elements were obtained. We mainly used the "Spatial Analyst tools-interpolation-Kriging" function in ArcGIS. Finally, according to Formula (4), the 2015 result is shown in Figure 3e.

**Figure 2.** Locations of weather stations.

#### 3.2.6. Land Surface Temperature Index

The rapid development of urbanization has changed the urban climate, and one of the remarkable characteristics is the urban heat island effect. On the one hand, the urban heat island effect directly affects the energy utilization, hydrological environment, and air quality. On the other hand, the urban heat island effect also indirectly affects the quality of urban living environment and the health status of residents [36]. Land surface temperature is a key parameter of urban surface energy balance and a very important parameter for monitoring urban heat island effect.

The classification method of land surface temperature was to segment the temperature density on the basis of the original land surface temperature data [37]. The surface temperature in the region was divided into five grades, which were: low temperature (T < Tmean − 1.5Tstd); sub-low temperature (Tmean − 1.5Tstd < T < Tmean − 0.5Tstd); medium temperature (Tmean − 0.5Tstd < T < Tmean + 0.5Tstd); sub-high temperature (Tmean + 0.5Tstd < T < Tmean + 1.5Tstd); high temperature (T > Tmean + 1.5Tstd). Where Tmean is the average value of land surface temperature and Tstd is the standard deviation of land surface temperature. The result of land surface temperature index in 2015 is shown in Figure 3f.

#### *3.3. Methods of Human Settlement Natural Environment Model*

#### 3.3.1. Scoring Criteria

After the completion of the single factor evaluation, it is necessary to carry out the graph superposition to complete the evaluation of human settlement natural environment. Therefore, each single factor model should be graded according to the actual situation of the study area and existing studies [38]. The single factor evaluation results in 2015 were divided into five grades and assigned with scoring values, as shown in Table 3.



Note: RDLS refers to Relief Degree of Land Surface; WRI refers to Water Resource Index; LCI refers to Land Cover Index; SSI refers to Soil Suitability Index; THI refers to Temperature–Humidity Index; LSTI refers to Land Surface Temperature Index.

#### 3.3.2. Establishment of Human Settlement Natural Environment Index

On the basis of single factor evaluation, a human settlement natural environment index (HNEI) model was constructed to evaluate the natural suitability of human settlement in five provinces of the lower reaches of the Yangtze river. The formula is as follows:

$$HNEI = aRDS + \beta WRI + \chi LCI + \delta SSI + \gamma THI + \varepsilon LSTI + 0.2GDPI \tag{5}$$

where αβχδγε are the corresponding weights of each index respectively, which were obtained by referring to existing studies [4,28,38] through the analytic hierarchy process. The results were as follows: α = 0.2324, β = 0.0794, χ = 0.3579, δ = 0.0435, γ = 0.1697, ε = 0.1172.

0.2GDPI (Gross Domestic Product Index) is the economic correction coefficient. Since selected natural indexes such as LCI and LSTI are affected largely by population distribution, the economic coefficient was added to eliminate such influence. At the same time, economically developed areas have relatively complete residential infrastructure, which is also one of the necessary conditions for human settlement. The classification of GDPI is shown in Table 4.


**Table 4.** The classification of Gross Domestic Product Index (GDPI).

#### **4. Results and Discussion**

#### *4.1. Results of Single Natural Factor*

(1) RDLS: As can be seen from Figure 3a, the RDLS in most areas was low, with the maximum of 3.3 and the minimum of −0.03. From the perspective of province, there were some high-RDLS areas in Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi provinces, which were distributed in the Dabie Mountain area, mountainous area of southern Anhui, mountain area of southern Zhejiang, and the Mufu Mountain, Jiuling Mountain in northwest Jiangxi province.

(2) WRI: As can be seen from Figure 3b, the WRI showed a trend of gradual decrease from south to north, with high suitability areas concentrated in central and northern Jiangxi, southern Anhui, and most areas of southwest Zhejiang. The low suitability areas were mainly concentrated in the central and northern Anhui and most areas of Jiangsu province.

(3) LCI: As shown in Figure 3c, the LCI had the following characteristics: 1. In terms of spatial distribution, a medium-high-low pattern was formed from north to south. The dominant vegetation types in the three regions were dry field, paddy field, and woodland, respectively. 2. In terms of provinces, Jiangsu province had the best suitability. Except for the uninhabitable lake areas, the scores of the other regions were all above the average. The LCI of Anhui from north to south also presented a medium-high-low distribution. Because the built-up areas in Shanghai were too concentrated, the LCI of the northern Shanghai was poor. The most suitable areas of Jiangxi and Zhejiang were the areas of basins and plains.

(4) SSI: As can be seen from Figure 3d, soil erosion in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river was only caused by hydraulic erosion without wind erosion and freeze–thaw erosion, which was related to the geographical location of the region. The numerous tributaries along the Yangtze river and the abundant rainfall contributed to this phenomenon.

(5) THI: According to Figure 3e and the reference standard, the THI of the lower reaches of the Yangtze river was suitable for human habitation. From the perspective of distribution, the THI basically increased with the increase of latitude. The overall temperature–humidity index of Jiangxi province was the highest, while that of Anhui province and Jiangsu province was lower. In addition, the THI of mountainous areas was obviously lower than that of plain areas at the same latitude.

(6) LSTI: According to the actual situation of the research area, we believed that the lower the land surface temperature is, the better the habitability is. Figure 3f shows that Shanghai had the highest land surface temperature among the five provinces, because Shanghai had a high population density and a high proportion of built-up area. Due to the existence of a large number of lakes, such as Tai Lake and Hongze Lake, Jiangsu province had reserved a large area of low temperature area, while the high temperature area was mostly concentrated in the urban agglomeration in southern Jiangsu. There was a close relationship between land surface temperature and topography in Zhejiang and Anhui provinces. High temperature areas were mainly concentrated in plain and basin areas; low

temperatures areas were concentrated in hilly and mountainous areas. Jiangxi province is located in the south of the five provinces, the sun is the strongest, so the land surface temperature was relatively high.

**Figure 3.** Suitability evaluation of single natural elements. (**a**) RDLS; (**b**) WRI; (**c**) LCI; (**d**) SSI; (**e**) THI; (**f**) LSTI.

#### *4.2. Results of Human Settlement Natural Environment*

The distribution diagram of Human Settlement Natural Environment Index (HNEI) obtained after superposition calculation is shown in Figure 4a. It can be seen from the figure that the range of HNEI was 22.2–99.3. The results are expressed in five levels respectively: very unsuitable (22 ≤ HNEI ≤ 48), unsuitable (48 < HNEI ≤ 57), medium suitable (57 < HNEI ≤ 66), suitable (66 < HNEI ≤ 77), and very suitable (77 < HNEI ≤ 100).

**Figure 4.** Evaluation results of Human Settlement Natural Environment Index (HNEI). (**a**) HNEI; (**b**) HNEI classification; (**c**) HNEI rank.

As can be seen from Figure 4b, the regions with high HNEI were mainly distributed along the Yangtze river, the northern Zhejiang plain, and the Poyang lake plain. The specific analysis is as follows:

(1) Very unsuitable area: This area was the most unsuitable area for human habitation in the study area, which was not suitable for development and had a fragile ecological environment. This area accounted for 7.27% of the total area. As can be seen from the figure, this part of the region was mainly distributed in southern Zhejiang mountain, Dabie mountain, and southern Anhui mountain. Besides, there was Mufu mountain and Jiuling mountain in northwest Jiangxi province. The dominant factor in these areas was RDLS. In addition, these areas also tended to be consistent in other single factor evaluation results. As for the LCI, most of these areas were covered by forest, and the scoring criteria was IV (30 grades). In terms of LSTI, due to the high vegetation coverage, most scoring criteria in these areas were II (70 grades) or above. In terms of THI, due to the high terrain, the somatosensory temperature in these areas was relatively cold, and most of the scoring criteria were III (50 grades) or below. Finally, in addition to the southern Zhejiang mountains, other areas had varying degrees of erosion.

(2) Unsuitable area: This area accounted for 20.14% of the total area and was widely distributed. The reasons for the formation of such areas were complex and can be roughly divided into five categories: The first category was the surrounding area of the very unsuitable area. The terrain and other factors in this area were better than those in the very unsuitable area. The second category was distributed in mountainous and hilly areas in southern Jiangxi. The terrain of this category was between mountain and plain, and the score of RDLS increased, but correspondingly, the score of LSTI decreased. The WRI of this area differed widely, there was less rainfall in southern Jiangxi and more in eastern Jiangxi. The biggest difference from the first category was in the THI. Such a category had lower latitudes and higher temperatures, making it more suitable for settlement. The third category was the western Zhejiang hilly region and the eastern Zhejiang hilly region. Similar to the first category, the dominant factors were RDLS and LCI. In general, this category was limited by THI, so the natural ecological conditions were slightly worse than those of the second category. However, the GDP of this area was higher than that of the second category; there was a strong ability to construct and transform the residential environment. After correction, they were all in the unsuitable area. The fourth category was located in the lake area of northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu. The water area itself was uninhabitable and the temperature was low, so it was in the unsuitable area. The fifth category was the northern region of the study area. The limiting factor in this category was the THI, and the temperature was relatively cold.

(3) Very suitable area: This area had the most harmonious combination of various natural factors, and was the most suitable place for human production and life. This category accounted for 21.19% of the total area, mostly distributed in the plain areas along the Yangtze river, the plain areas in northern Zhejiang, and the Poyang lake plain. There were two dominant factors in this area. The first one was LCI, with scores of 70 or above. The vegetation coverage in these regions was basically paddy fields, which were suitable for living. The second was RDLS. These areas were all flat and suitable for large-scale group living.

(4) Suitable area: This category was also suitable for human habitation, accounting for 16.91% of the total area. This area was relatively complex, which can be roughly divided into three categories: The first category was the area around the Yangtze river basin, which was distributed around the very suitable area. The dominant factor in this region was the LCI, and most of the vegetation was paddy field. The second category was parts of Nantong city, Yancheng city, and part of northern Jiangsu. The dominant factor of this region was still the LCI, and most of them were dryland regions with relatively good hydrothermal conditions. In addition, the correlation degree between this category and the LSTI was relatively high, and most of them were located in the region with medium temperature. The third category was the area around Poyang lake plain in Jiangxi province and the basin area in the south of Poyang lake. The dominant factors in this part were WRI and RDLS, and most of them were in flat areas and areas with abundant water resources.

(5) Medium suitable area: This category covered the largest area among the five categories, accounting for 34.56% of the total area, with a large distribution in each province. Generally, there

were the following distribution areas: The first category was the part of northern Anhui and northern Zhejiang province, the dominant factor was the land cover index, and the land use type was mostly dry land. The limiting factors were the THI and WRI. The temperature in most regions was low and the amount of water resources was small; the score of the two indexes were mostly below 30 points. The second category covered most of Shanghai and some parts of southern Jiangsu province. The dominant factor of this category was LCI, and the limiting factor was LSTI. The main land use type was construction land, and the natural conditions of this region were more suitable for living. However, it was located in the Yangtze river delta region, and the built-up area had a large population density, so the LSTI was higher. In fact, it was no longer suitable for adding too many people, so it was classified in the medium suitable area. The third category was Tai lake, Poyang lake, and other lake areas, which were similar to the lake in unsuitable areas. The fourth category was the area between the suitable areas and the unsuitable areas. If such areas can follow the local development rules and make rational development and utilization in the development process, they are highly likely to become suitable areas. On the contrary, if the ecological environment is damaged or the climate changes greatly, they are also likely to become unsuitable areas.

The ranking of HNEI in 2015 is shown in Figure 4c. Similar to Figure 4b, cities with a high index were mainly distributed along the Yangtze river, the northern Zhejiang plain, and the Poyang lake plain. Shanghai's HNEI ranked twelfth. Among the other four provinces, Jiangsu province had the best HNEI. There were six cities in the top 15: Taizhou, Nantong, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, and Nanjing. The overall scores of the other three provinces were similar. The top 15 cities in Zhejiang province are Jiaxing and Zhoushan. Jiangxi province had Nanchang, Xinyu. Anhui province had Wuhu, Hefei, Ma'anshan, and Tongling.

#### *4.3. Time Evolution Analysis of HNEI*

In order to explore the evolution of HNEI in the study area, WRI, LCI, THI, and LSTI in 2010 and 2005 were recalculated using relevant data to obtain the HNEI of 2010 and 2005. The results were graded using the same criteria as in 2015, as shown in Figure 5 and Table 5.

**Figure 5.** Results of natural suitability of human settlements in 2005 and 2010. HNEI classification in 2005; HNEI classification in 2010.

According to the results in Figure 5 and the result of 2015, the natural suitability of human settlement in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river showed little change, and the high suitability areas were still concentrated along the Yangtze river, the northern Zhejiang plain, and the Poyang lake plain. However, the overall level of HENI was slightly improved; it can be seen from the results in

Table 5 that the area of very unsuitable was significantly reduced, while the area of very suitable was significantly increased. It was found that the leading factors are THI and WRI, and the improvement of these two indexes increased the overall score, making the natural suitability of human settlement somewhat improved compared with that of ten years ago.


**Table 5.** The change of area proportion of each district.

#### **5. Conclusions**

(1) In this paper, six natural factors, including relief degree of land surface (RDLS), water resource index (WRI), land cover index (LCI), soil suitability index (SSI), temperature-humidity index (THI), and land surface temperature index (LSTI), were selected to establish the human settlement natural environment index (HNEI) model. With ArcGIS as a tool, the natural suitability of human settlement in five provinces in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river was quantitatively evaluated and analyzed.

(2) The human settlement environment includes five major systems: nature, human, society, residence, and support. There is a strong correlation between each system. The main research object of this study is the natural system, and the GDP Index was used to correct the repeated interference of human factors on various elements. The method is feasible to restore the human ecological system objectively and truly from the angle of nature.

(3) In 2015, the most suitable areas accounted for 22.06% of the total area. The areas with the highest suitability index were mainly distributed in the plains along the Yangtze river, the northern Zhejiang plain, and the Poyang lake plain. The dominant factors were RDLS and LCI, and the vegetation cover was basically paddy field, which is suitable for living. Suitable areas accounted for 16.85% of the total area. Some areas were distributed around very suitable areas. In addition, there were parts of paddy fields and dry lands in Jiangsu province, and areas with better hydrothermal conditions in Jiangxi province. The most unsuitable areas accounted for 7.27% of the total area, and were mainly distributed in southern Zhejiang mountain, Dabie mountain, southern Anhui mountain, Mufu mountain, and Jiuling mountain. Relief degree of land surface (RDLS) was the dominant factor, and soil erosion areas were also mainly distributed in these areas. The unsuitable areas accounted for 20.49% of the total area. Some areas were distributed around the very unsuitable areas, while others were mainly distributed in southern Jiangxi (the dominant factors were RDLS and THI), western and eastern Zhejiang (the dominant factor was RDLS), and northern Anhui (the dominant factor was THI). The area of medium suitable area accounted for 33.33%, which was widely distributed in each province. Whether these areas will develop into suitable or unsuitable areas in the future depends, to a great extent, on urban development policies and means, which are the key areas that should be paid attention to.

(4) From the perspective of space, the human settlement natural environment index of Shanghai in 2015 was above the average. The best among the rest of the provinces was Jiangsu province, with six cities ranking in the top 15. Zhejiang province, Jiangxi province, and Anhui province had two, two, and four cities, respectively. From the perspective of time, the spatial distribution of the natural suitability of human settlements did not change much from 2005 to 2015, but the overall suitability level was improved for a certain extent, mainly due to the improvement of the temperature–humidity index (THI) and the water resource index (WRI).

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, F.S. and X.H.Y.; methodology, F.S. and F.F.W.; data curation, F.S.; writing, F.S.; visualization, F.S.; project administration, X.H.Y.

**Funding:** This research was funded by the Project of the National Key Research Program of China (Nos. 2017YFC0506603, 2016YFC0401305), National Natural Foundation of China (No. 51679007), and the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (No. 41530635).

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


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### *Article* **Anthropogenic CH4 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Based on A "Top-Down" Method**

**Wenjing Huang 1,2, Wei Xiao 1,2, Mi Zhang 1, Wei Wang 1, Jingzheng Xu 3, Yongbo Hu 1, Cheng Hu 1,4, Shoudong Liu <sup>1</sup> and Xuhui Lee 1,2,5,\***


Received: 3 March 2019; Accepted: 2 April 2019; Published: 5 April 2019

**Abstract:** There remains significant uncertainty in the estimation of anthropogenic CH4 emissions at local and regional scales. We used atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration data to constrain the anthropogenic CH4 emission in the Yangtze River Delta one of the most populated and economically important regions in China. The observation of atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration was carried out from May 2012 to April 2017 at a rural site. A tracer correlation method was used to estimate the anthropogenic CH4 emission in this region, and compared this "top-down" estimate with that obtained with the IPCC inventory method. The annual growth rates of the atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fractions are 2.5 ± 0.7 ppm year−<sup>1</sup> and 9.5 ± 4.7 ppb year<sup>−</sup>1, respectively, which are 9% and 53% higher than the values obtained at Waliguan (WLG) station. The average annual anthropogenic CH4 emission is 4.37 (± 0.61) × <sup>10</sup><sup>9</sup> kg in the YRD (excluding rice cultivation). This "top-down" estimate is 20–70% greater than the estimate based on the IPCC method. We suggest that possible sources for the discrepancy include low biases in the IPCC calculation of emission from landfills, ruminants and the transport sector.

**Keywords:** "top-down" method; the Yangtze River Delta; CO2; CH4; annual growth rate; anthropogenic CH4 emissions

#### **1. Introduction**

The source apportionment of CH4 is important for the study of carbon cycle and climate change. The mole fraction of CH4 in the atmosphere increased by 157% from 1750 to 2011 [1,2]. As the second largest greenhouse gas next to CO2, CH4 has a warming potential of 28 times that of CO2 with a 100-year time horizon [2]. In addition to the greenhouse effect, CH4 also affects the chemical and photochemical reactions in the atmosphere [3]. The annual growth rate of atmospheric CH4 was 6.9 ± 2.4 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> from 2007 to 2017 [4]. However, the source contributions of CH4 have so far not been accurately quantified, especially at the regional and the city scale [5].

Anthropogenic CH4 emissions account for 50–65% of the global CH4 emissions of 5.82 (± 0.5) × <sup>10</sup><sup>11</sup> kg year−<sup>1</sup> [6,7]. Large uncertainties still exist in regional anthropogenic emission estimates. These estimates are usually based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inventory method. The IPCC method aggregates the CH4 emissions generated by different anthropogenic activities and sums up the individual components to the domain of interest. One problem is that

activity data, such as landfill and livestock, and emission factors cannot be accurately determined at the regional and the city scale [8–10]. A study in Beijing found that the uncertainty caused by landfill accounts for nearly half of the total uncertainty in the CH4 emission estimate [11]. Accurate and timely calculations of anthropogenic CH4 emissions at the regional scale are necessary for assessing the effectiveness of emission reduction policies.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions can also be estimated from observations of the gaseous concentrations in the atmosphere ("top-down" methods). The "atmospheric method" used in this study is one of the "top-down" approaches. One reason for using the atmospheric method is that many sources of anthropogenic CH4 cannot be quantified with traditional methods, such as the chamber method [12–14]. The atmospheric method requires simultaneous concentration measurements of the target gas (CH4) and a tracer gas (usually CO2) when there is no disturbance from sinks or other natural sources [15]. In an observational study using aircraft profile measurement over a broad region of Alaska and Canada, the concentrations of CH4 and CO2 increase synchronously with height, showing a strong positive correlation between the two gases [16]. A similar positive relationship also exists in the surface air in a moderately polluted urban atmosphere of Boulder, USA [16]. The explanation for the positive relationship is that the two gases share common source areas and undergo the same long-range transport [17,18]. The concentration ratio between the two gases were used to estimate the CH4 emissions in the densely populated urban areas in Southern California, showing that inventory CH4 emission estimates for these urban areas are lower in comparison to the "top-down" atmospheric estimate [19]. In a study of anthropogenic CH4 emissions in the Los Angeles megacity, a ground-based remote sensing concentration measurement with 29 different surface targets was used to spatially resolve CH4:CO2 emission ratio, once again relying on the linear relationship between the two gaseous concentrations [20].

The atmospheric method is based on a strong correlation between the observed concentration values of two relatively inert gases CH4 and CO2. Because the lifetime of these two gases in the atmosphere (7–11 years and 50–200 years, respectively) [21] is much longer than hourly time scales at which the observations are made, the linear slope value of the regression is essentially equivalent to the ratio of their anthropogenic emission strengths. In the applications cited above, the CH4 emission flux is computed as the product of the concentration regression slope and the anthropogenic CO2 emission flux, the latter of which can be obtained reliably with the IPCC inventory method [22].

The atmospheric method has been used to track emissions of other gas species besides CH4. This method was used to infer anthropogenic Hg emissions in Northeast USA, with wintertime Hg and CO2 concentration data and CO2 as the tracer [23]. Simultaneous observations of the CO2 and CO concentrations in a suburban site outside Beijing was used to determine the efficiency of fossil fuel combustion [24]. The concentrations of CO2 and CO observed in the Asian outflow air combined with a three-dimensional global chemical transport model were used to quantify CO2 emissions in East Asia [25].

In this paper, we report long-term (five years), near-continuous, and simultaneous observations of atmospheric CH4 and CO2 at a lake site near Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China. Our main objective was to quantify the CH4 emission in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and its interannual variability, using the atmospheric tracer method described above. The second objective was to evaluate the validity of the CH4 emissions calculated with the "bottom-up" IPCC inventory method against the atmospheric or "top-down" emission estimates.

#### **2. Experiments**

#### *2.1. Study Area and Observational Site*

The YRD in East China occupies only 2.1% of the land area of China (including Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Anhui Province and Shanghai), but contributes 1/4 of the total economic output [26]. The Wuxi Municipality is located roughly in the middle of the Yangtze River Delta, with a population of about 5 million. Other major cities in this region are Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Hefei.

The observational site is located at the Taihu Lake Ecosystem Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (31.4197◦ N, 120.2139◦ E) in Wuxi. Measurements of the CO2 and CH4 concentrations were made on a platform about 200 m from the north shore of the lake (Figure 1). The platform was once also part of the Lake Taihu Eddy Flux Network (site id MLW) [27]. The site is surrounded by water, scattered farmlands and residential buildings. The closest traffic road is about 10 km away. The prevailing wind is northwesterly in the winter (Figure S1) and southerly in the summer. In the winter season, the landscape upwind is mostly rural (Figure S1).

**Figure 1.** Location of the MLW site (pentagram in red color), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) and three Chinese WMO/GAW stations, including Lin'an (LAN), Shangdianzi (SDZ) and Waliguang (WLG).

#### *2.2. Trace Gas Analyzer*

The analyzer we used was based on wavelength scanning cavity ring-down spectroscopy (model G1301 from 14 May 2012 to 6 July 2013 and model G2301 from 20 October 2013 until now, Picarro Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA). The measurement frequency is 1 Hz (sampling rate) and the precision (5-s mean) is 0.15 ppm for CO2 and 1 ppb for CH4. The air inlet is placed at a height of 3.5 m above the water surface. The water vapor concentration measured by the instrument was used to remove the water vapor dilution effect so the concentrations of CH4 and CO2 are expressed as molar ratio of CH4 or CO2 to dry air.

The observation period in this study was from May 2012 to April 2017. A large data gap occurred between July and October 2013 owing to instrument malfunction. In the second half of 2016, some data were lost because of loss of power on the platform.

The data from the analyzer were averaged to half-hour intervals. Standard deviation in half an hour and a five-point moving average method with a threshold of 1.5 times the standard deviation were used to filter the outliers. The daily average was achieved when daily data exceeded 75%.

For model G1301, the CO2 and CH4 measurements were calibrated twice (2 May 2012 and 22 June 2012) and the details can be found in the supplementary materials of a previously published paper [28]. Model G2301 was calibrated three times on 11 September 2013, 4 November 2015 and 25 August 2016, respectively. The mole fractions of CO2 and CH4 were calibrated against two standard CO2 gases (concentration: 490 ppm or 491 ppm and 385 ppm, National Primary Standard prepared by the National Institute of Meteorology (NIM), China) and two standard CH4 gases (2.02 ppm and 3.05 ppm

or 3.52 ppm, National Primary Standard) each time. The relative error is 0.62–0.37% for CO2 and 0.81–0.41% for CH4. We used a dew-point generator (model 610, LI-COR, Inc., Lincoln, NE, USA) to correct the analyzers humidity measurement. The humidity level of the air coming out of the dew-point generator was regulated at five levels and measurement at each humidity level lasted 15 min. The first several minutes when the measurement was transitional were excluded from the analysis. A linear regression fit generated from saturation vapor mixing ratio and observed vapor mixing ratio resulted in a slope value of 0.97–0.99.

No standards were available for us to trace our calibration gases to the WMO scale. NIM participated in two inter-agency comparison experiments on calibration standards including standards traceable to the WMO scale. The results can be found in references [29,30].

#### *2.3. The IPCC Inventory Calculation*

The IPCC emissions inventory is a "bottom-up" approach. It takes emission activity data from different economic sectors into account and multiplies them by the corresponding emission factors to estimate the emission. The activity data used in this study were obtained from China Energy Statistical Yearbook [31–34], China Statistical Yearbook [35–38], China Rural Statistical Yearbook [39–42], Jiangsu Statistical Bureau, Auhui Statistical Bureau, Zhejiang Statistical Bureau, Shanghai Statistical Bureau and Wuxi Statistical Bureau. The data on crop straw burning were derived from crop yields combined with grain-to-straw ratio [43]. The data on firewood usage from 1991 to 2006 were estimated with the ratio of firewood usage in the YRD combined with the total firewood usage [44]. Then a time-varying line of the firewood usage was fitted to estimate the 2012–2015 firewood usage in the YRD. We used the default emission factors provided by IPCC if no domestic values are available, such as industry energy consumption, industry processes and livestock. CH4 emissions from landfills were based on the first order decay model provided by IPCC, taking into account local climatic conditions, the landfill waste volume, organic carbon content and waste age [11,45,46]. CH4 emissions from rice paddies accounted for different varieties of rice acreage and the corresponding growth period [47–49]. The proportion of open-pit mining to the total mining volume has increased year by year in the YRD region [50]. The CH4 fugitive emissions in the YRD mainly come from coal mining in Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province and Huainan, Huaibei, Fuyang, etc. in Anhui Province. The remaining emission factors for other sectors not listed here were obtained from the relevant literature [51,52].

The Monte Carlo method [52,53] was used to obtain uncertainty ranges of the inventory calculations. The uncertainties of the IPCC method arise from the choice of emission factors and from uncertainties in the activity data. These uncertainties were assumed to follow uniform distributions. The range of variations of the emission factors were given by IPCC or domestic values. For the activity data, an uncertainty range of 10% was assumed. A total of 400,000 ensemble members were calculated to determine a probability distribution function and estimate the emission uncertainties. A 95% confidence interval was used to quantify the random errors.

The CO2 inventory is well quantified and with less uncertainty. For example, in Austria, Norway, the Netherlands, the UK and the USA, the uncertainty of CO2 emission factors and activity data for main sources is between ± 0.5% and ± 7% of the means [54]. In comparison, the uncertainty of the CH4 factors sector is ± 20% to ± 50% of the means [54]. The overall uncertainty of the CO2 emission estimates is 2–4%, much smaller than that of CH4 (17–48%) or N2O (34–230%) [54–56].

#### *2.4. Application of the Atmospheric Method*

We used a geometric mean regression to determine the slope of the CH4 molar mixing ratio against the CO2 molar mixing ratio. Because uncertainties exist in both CO2 and CH4 concentration measurements, geometric mean regression gives more robust parameter estimates than the ordinary least squares regression [57]. Moreover, there is slight variations between the four seasons according to the national level fuel consumption [58], so we focused on wintertime (December to February inclusive) measurements because plant photosynthesis is minimal and atmospheric CO2 variations are driven

primarily by anthropogenic sources. The annual anthropogenic CH4 emission flux is the product of the regression slope in winter and the anthropogenic CO2 flux derived from the IPCC inventory method. We refer to this flux as the "top-down" estimate.

The uncertainty of the atmospheric method comes from two aspects. The first is a result of the regression procedure, and is characterized by the standard deviation of the regression estimate of the geometric mean slope. The second source of uncertainty is caused by the anthropogenic CO2 emission calculation using the IPCC method. The overall uncertainty of the atmospheric CH4 emission estimate was calculated with the Monte Carlo method that combines these two sources of uncertainty.

The daytime CO2 and CH4 concentrations are indicative of source contributions at the regional scale if there are no direct nearby emissions. This is because the daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is well mixed and there is no nearby direct emission disturbance. At a suburban site in Xiamen in southeastern China, the vertical profile of CO2 concentration shows little variation with altitude (below 350 m) between 8:40 and 15:45 [59]. At the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory, CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere becomes well-mixed and their concentrations become nearly indistinguishable at six height levels (4, 52, 92, 157, 227 and 301 m) during day in summer [60]. The ABL height at the MLW site in the winters of 2014–2016, simulated with the Meteoinfo open-source software [61], varies between 570 m and 970 m in the midday period (10:00–17:00; Figure 2). The Meteoinfo program used the Data Assimilation System (GDAS1) as input data, and the predicted ABL height was interpolated spatially to the MLW site. The analysis of Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) calculated with the HYSPLIT trajectory model with the 500-m height, the approximate mean height of the mid-point of the ABL, as the end point is shown in Figure 3. The PSCF value can be interpreted as the conditional probability for the specific grid cell, or the ratio of the number of endpoints falling in the grid cell with high concentration (>85th percentile concentration at the receptor site) to the total number of endpoints falling in the grid cell. Grid points having high PSCF values are likely to be potential source regions contributing to the observed concentrations [62]. A weighting function was introduced to deal with the bias brought by PSCF value when the number of endpoints falling in the grid cell was small. The choice of the function was set according to that reported by Sigler and Lee [63]. The calculation was performed for December 2014 with 48-h backward trajectories at 10:00, 13:00 and 16:00 LST each day. In Figure 3, the area with the PSCF value greater than the typical threshold of 0.1 [51,64] is 3.8 × <sup>10</sup><sup>5</sup> km2, of which 76% fall in the political boundary of the YRD. As a result, the daytime observational data at the MLW site can represent the source signatures of the YRD, consistent with a similar study conducted in Nanjing [51].

**Figure 2.** Diurnal variation of the boundary layer height at the MLW site. Error bars are ± 1 standard deviation of the mean.

**Figure 3.** Spatial distribution of the potential source region contributions simulated for December 2014.

The footprint analysis revealed the source region mostly likely to have impacted the daytime measurement at MLW. The actual probability value, or weighting factor, was not used later when we aggregated the inventory emission data to the whole YRD region.

At night (23:00–05:00), an inversion layer typically prevails near the ground surface, with high atmospheric stability. The mean height of the boundary layer is 260 m (Figure 2). Because of the strong stability, the CO2 and CH4 emitted by anthropogenic sources are trapped near the surface. The lack of mixing implies that the source areas of the observed concentration may span only several kilometers [65]. In other words, the regression slope represents more the emission ratio of local sources than the emission ratio of regional sources, although the exact spatial representation of nighttime observations needs to be further studied.

#### **3. Results**

#### *3.1. Temporal Variations of CO2 and CH4 Concentrations*

Figure 4 shows the temporal variations of half-hourly atmospheric CH4 and CO2 mole fractions during the observation period. The data show significant periodic fluctuations through the 24-h cycle, especially for CO2. Data for 2014 and 2015 are nearly gap-free and are representative of seasonal variations.

**Figure 4.** The half-hourly CO2 and CH4 mole fractions during the observation period (black dots). The white points are 14-day moving averages.

Figure 5 shows the diurnal composite concentrations for each of the four seasons in 2014. The diurnal variations of CO2 and CH4 show similar patterns in all seasons. In the spring (March, April and May) and autumn (June, July and August), the peaks appear at about 07:00 and the troughs appear at around 17:00. In the summer, the peaks occur at 04:00 and the minimum still appear around 17:00. In the winter (December, and January and February in the next year), the diurnal variations are gentler than in the other three seasons.

Figure 6 shows a comparison of our monthly mean CO2 and CH4 concentrations with those observed at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST; 32.20◦ N, 118.72◦ E), about 170 km to the northwest of the MLW site. The concentrations observed during the same time period at Mt. Waliguan (WLG, 36.28◦ N, 100.90◦ E, 3810 m above the mean sea level), a WMO baseline station representing the background atmosphere for Asia, are also shown [66,67]. NUIST is located at the outskirt of Nanjing, surrounded by residential areas and traffic roads and in the vicinity of two industrial complexes [68]. The atmospheric CO2 molar fraction is highest at NUIST, followed by MLW and lowest at WLG. Among the three sites, the strongest seasonality of the atmospheric CO2 molar fraction occurs at the MLW site, with low values in the summer and high values in the winter. The atmospheric CH4 molar fraction at the MLW site shows an opposite seasonality to CO2, with high values in the summer and low values in the winter.

**Figure 5.** Diurnal variations of the molar fraction of CH4 and CO2 in the atmosphere in the four seasons in 2014: (**a**) spring; (**b**) summer; (**c**) autumn; and (**d**) winter.

**Figure 6.** Variations of monthly molar fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), WLG and MLW and monthly molar fraction of CH4 at WLG and MLW from 2012 to 2017.

The monthly time series were deseasonalized to avoid the interference of seasonality of CH4 and CO2. A relative anomaly of CH4 and CO2 in a particular month of a given year was computed as the difference between the given concentration and the average of all years in that month, divided by the standard deviation of all the concentrations during the research period for that specific month. Then, the least square method was used to obtain the growth rates of CO2 and CH4. At the MLW site, the growth rates are 2.5 ± 0.7 ppm year−<sup>1</sup> for CO2 and 9.5 ± 4.7 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> for CH4. These rates are higher than those at WLG (2.3 ± 0.2 ppm year−<sup>1</sup> for CO2 and 6.2 ± 1.7 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> for CH4).

#### *3.2. Diurnal and Inter-Annual Variations of the CH4 Versus CO2 Regression Slope*

Figure 7 shows the diurnal variations of the CH4 versus CO2 regression slope and their linear correlation coefficients (R) for the summer and the winter in 2015. The slope value was determined for each half-hour period of the day, using all the data collected in the same half-hourly period. In the summer, the regression slope is marked by a sudden rise at around 18:00, coinciding with the onset of the surface inversion layer. The summertime R is high at night but has very low values in the afternoon. In the winter, the slope value is generally smaller than the summer value, and its diurnal variation is weak. The wintertime R fluctuates around 0.8. The fact that the regression slope is stable and that the R value is high in the winter is not a surprise. In the winter months, biological sources of CO2 and CH4 are much weaker than the anthropogenic sources. For this reason, the data in winter were selected for further study.

**Figure 7.** Diurnal variation of CH4:CO2 emission ratio in the summer (June, July, and August) in 2014 and in the winter (December, January and February) during 2014–2015. The arrow indicates the linear correlation at the *p* value of 0.05.

An important biological CH4 source is wetland, including natural wetlands (offshore, coastal, swamp, lakes and rivers) and constructed wetlands. The total wetland area in the YRD is 5.4 × 104 km<sup>2</sup> (2013 value) [36], or 15% of the total area of the YRD. However, wintertime wetland CH4 flux is generally weak. A study found that the methane emission rate in a freshwater wetland in Australia is less than 0.01 mmol m−<sup>2</sup> h−<sup>1</sup> in the winter, which is much lower than that in the summer (1.3–3.3 mmol <sup>m</sup>−<sup>2</sup> <sup>h</sup>−1) [69]. Similarly, CH4 emissions from natural wetlands in the YRD are 1.98 × 108 kg [51], far less than anthropogenic emissions in winter (3.10 × 109 kg, Section 3.3). The Xixi wetland, one of the four major wetlands in the YRD, even becomes a weak sink of CH4 in the winter (0.0019 mg m−<sup>2</sup> h−1) [70]. Thus, CH4 emissions from wetlands could be omitted when we compared the "top-down" and "bottom-up" estimates using wintertime observations.

Rice paddies are another important biological CH4 source, contributing about 3.3–7.0% (18.3 × <sup>10</sup><sup>9</sup> kg year−<sup>1</sup> to 8.8 × 109 kg year−1, 1901–2010) [71] of the global CH4 emissions (5.58 × <sup>10</sup><sup>11</sup> kg year<sup>−</sup>1, 2003–2012) [72]. China accounts for 20% of the rice production area in the world and the rice planting area in the YRD accounts for 18% of the China's total [35–38]. The important conditions for CH4 production are organic matter applied (such as rice straw) and anoxic soils established in flooded paddies. As a typical monsoon climate zone in southeastern China, the growth period for rice is from May to October [73]. During non-rice growing season in the winter, CH4 emissions from non-permanently flooded rice paddies are about 4–6% of the emissions in the growth season [74], and were ignored in the comparison with our "top-down" estimation.

Figures 8 and 9 are regression results using winter time observations made during 2012–2016. The regression was done separately for daytime (10:00–17:00 Beijing time) and nighttime (23:00–05:00 Beijing time) periods for consideration of different mixing conditions and source regions during the day and at night. In this regression, each data sample is a daytime or nighttime mean value. Taking the maximum drift over 24 h in CO2 and CH4 values (<120 ppb for CO2 and <1 ppb for CH4) for each point caused by the observational instrument into consideration, the slope was affected by <0.0001 ppm:ppm, which can be ignored comparing with the standard error caused by the fitting method (0.0005 in 2013). The daytime regression slope fluctuates between 0.0055 ± 0.0006 and 0.0068 ± 0.0005 ppm CH4 per ppm CO2 without an obvious interannual trend. The correlation coefficient R is greater than 0.8, and all four winters passed the 0.01 significance test.

**Figure 8.** Scatter plots of winter (December–February) daytime CH4 and CO2 concentrations at MLW from 2012 to 2016. Each data point represents one daytime mean value. Regression statistics (regression equation, linear correlation R and number of samples) are also shown. Parameter ranges in the parentheses are 95% confidence bounds: (**a**) December 2012–February 2013; (**b**) December 2013–February 2014; (**c**) December 2014–February 2015; and (**d**) December 2015–February 2016.

**Figure 9.** Same as Figure 8 except for winter (December–February) nighttime: (**a**) December 2012–February 2013; (**b**) December 2013–February 2014; (**c**)December 2014–February 2015; and (**d**) December 2015–February 2016.

The nighttime slope value increases from 0.0056 ± 0.0005 ppm/ppm for the winter of 2012–2013 to 0.0075 ± 0.0008 ppm/ppm for the winter of 2015–2016. With the exception of winter 2013–2014, the nighttime slope values are greater than the daytime values, implying more CH4 emission per mole of CO2 release by local anthropogenic sources than by regional sources. The correlation also passed the 0.01 significance test but the R values are slightly lower than the daytime R values.

An alternative approach to obtain the emissions ratio is to divide the CH4 concentration enhancement over a background value by the CO2 concentration enhancement. Here, we defined the clean background as the concentration at the 5th percentile. The emissions ratio, calculated as (CH4, mean−CH4, 5%)/(CO2, mean−CO2, 5%) for the winter, is in good agreement with the slope of the CH4 concentration versus CO2 concentration (Figure S2).

In this study, we assumed that the daytime observations were influenced by sources located in the YRD. We used the EDGARv4.3.2 inventory data (2012) to understand the sensitivity of the emissions ratio to the spatial footprint. We found that by expanding the source region by 100 km from all sides of the YRD boundary, the CH4:CO2 emissions ratio changed by less than 1%.

#### *3.3. Inventory Results*

Table 1 shows the results of the CO2 emission in the YRD in 2012. Industrial energy consumption is the largest emitter, followed by industrial processes, and the residential sector is the smallest emitter. The emission estimate for the transportation sector has the largest relative uncertainty, mainly due to the lack of accurate data on the annual driving range and the emission factor for different vehicle types and driving conditions [75]. The total emission amount was 19.18 ×10<sup>11</sup> kg in 2012. The Monte Carlo method gives an overall uncertainty of 10%. For comparison the total emission amount in 2009 was 15.35 × <sup>10</sup><sup>11</sup> kg [51].


**Table 1.** Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the YRD in 2012.

<sup>1</sup> CO2 emissions in manufacturing, commerce, and construction are also included in this sector.

The annual CO2 emission for 2012–2015 is shown in Figure 10. The growth rate was 3% from 2012 to 2013 and decreased to 0.5% from 2014 to 2015. The reduced growth was mainly caused by the decrease in the industrial energy emission.

**Figure 10.** Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions from different sectors in the YRD from 2012 to 2015, based on the IPCC inventory method.

Similarly, Table 2 shows the anthropogenic CH4 emissions in the YRD in 2012. Rice cultivation and coal mining are the major sources of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Emission estimates for landfills, wastewater treatment and fuel burning (traffic) emissions have large uncertainties. The total regional emission was 5.78 × 109 kg in 2012, increasing by 9.7% compared to that reported for 2009 [51]. The uncertainty of the total estimate (21%) is much greater than the uncertainty (10%) of the CO2 emission estimate (Table 1), supporting the use of CO2 as a tracer gas to calculate the CH4 emission with the atmospheric method.

**Table 2.** Anthropogenic CH4 emissions in the Yangtze River Delta in 2012, based on the IPCC inventory method.


Figure 11 shows the annual anthropogenic CH4 emission in the YRD from 2012 to 2015. There was a slight downward trend during the study period, but there was a slight increase from 2014 to 2015.

**Figure 11.** Annual anthropogenic CH4 emissions from different sectors in the YRD from 2012 to 2015, based on the IPCC inventory method.

#### *3.4. Comparison of CH4 Emission Estimates between the Methods*

Figure 12 shows the comparison of the annual anthropogenic CH4 emissions obtained with the two methods. In this comparison, emissions from rice cultivation were excluded from the IPCC estimate because no rice is grown in the winter months. The "top-down" atmospheric estimate fluctuates year by year, in the range from 3.84 × 109 kg to 4.89 × 109 kg, which is 1.2–1.7 times the IPCC result.

**Figure 12.** Annual anthropogenic CH4 emissions (excluding rice cultivation) in the YRD from 2012 to 2015. Error bars indicate the uncertainty at a confidence level of 97.5%.

#### **4. Discussion**

#### *4.1. Annual Growth Rates of CH4 and CO2 Concentrations*

The observation lasted nearly five years. Due to the lack of data in some months, the annual average is not representative, thus the linear increase rate of monthly averages was used to characterize the annual growth rate. The CO2 growth rate at the MLW site from 2012 to 2017 was 2.5 ± 0.7 ppm year−1, which is 9% higher than observed at the WLG background station (2.3 ± 0.2 ppm year−1). A similar result was obtained from observations near Beijing, showing a 24% higher growth rate than at WLG [76]. The large growth rate is consistent with the anthropogenic CO2 emissions trend in the YRD with an increase of 30% from 15.35 × 1011 kg in 2009 [51] to 19.95 × <sup>10</sup><sup>11</sup> kg in 2015 (Figure 10). In this period, emissions from the transport sector increased by 88%, in line with the increasing car ownership, while emissions from industrial processes were nearly unchanged [51].

The annual growth rate of CH4 at MLW (9.5 ± 4.7 ppb year−1) is nearly twice that at WLG (6.2 ± 1.7 ppb year<sup>−</sup>1). The increasing trend at MLW is close to that in the Lin'an station in Zhejiang Province, which is also located in the center of YRD, with a growth rate of 8.0 ± 1.2 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> from 2009 to 2011 [77]. The growth rate at WLG from 2012 to 2016 was quite similar to global mean growth rate (about 6 ppb year<sup>−</sup>1, 2010–2014) [78,79]. The annual trend of CH4 is 4.8 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> (2008–2013) at the Zhongshan station in Antarctica, which is the least influenced by human activities [80,81]. At the Shangdianzi regional background station in Beijing, atmospheric CH4 concentration influenced by airmasses passing through the highly developed Beijing Municipality, Tianjin Municipality and Hebei Province increased at a rate of 10 ± 0.1 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> from 2009 to 2013, whereas atmospheric CH4 concentrations influenced by airmasses originating from Russia, Mongolia, and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China increased at a rate of 6 ± 0.1 ppb year−<sup>1</sup> over the same period [82].

One reason for the high CH4 growth rate at the MLW site is the steady increase in anthropogenic emissions according to the inventory data, although the "top-down" estimate does not reveal such a trend in anthropogenic emissions. Another reason may be related to the expansion of wetland areas. According to two national surveys of wetland resources, the total wetland area in the YRD obtained by the second census (2009–2013) increased by 54% in comparison with the first (1995–2003), from 3.5 × <sup>10</sup><sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> to 5.4 × 104 km2 [36]. About 67% of this growth is contributed by constructed wetlands, which increased by nearly 700%. In natural wetlands around the world, the CH4 emission flux, ranging from 7.0 × 103 to 2.8 × <sup>10</sup><sup>4</sup> kg km−<sup>2</sup> year−<sup>1</sup> with an average of 2.1 × <sup>10</sup><sup>4</sup> kg km−<sup>2</sup> year−<sup>1</sup> [83,84] is lower than in constructed wetlands (ranging from 1.3 × 103 to 1.5 × <sup>10</sup><sup>5</sup> kg km−<sup>2</sup> year−1, with an average of 4.7 × 104 kg km−<sup>2</sup> year−1) [85]. The annual total emissions by wetlands for the two time periods (1995–2003 and 2009–2013) aere 1.89 × 108 kg year−<sup>1</sup> (range 1.6 × 108 to 14.8 × 108 kg year−1) and 2.98 × <sup>10</sup><sup>8</sup> kg year−<sup>1</sup> (range 2.5 × 108 to 23.3 × 108 kg year−1), respectively, using the Tier 1 approach provided by 2006 IPCC guidelines for moist and warm climates [8]. This method only considers diffusive emissions for natural wetlands during ice-free periods. Emissions from wetlands in two national surveys were 6.1% and 9.6% anthropogenic emission (excluding rice cultivation) in 2012 (3.1 (± 0.5) × <sup>10</sup><sup>9</sup> kg, Table 2).

#### *4.2. Comparison of the CH4/CO2 Emissions Ratio*

Some sources, such as transportation and landfills, release both CH4 and CO2, but their CH4/CO2 emissions ratios are very different. The average CH4/CO2 emissions ratio of vehicle traffic is 4.6 (± 0.2) × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>5</sup> ppm/ppm according to observations in traffic tunnels in Switzerland [86], indicating that CH4 emissions from traffic emissions account for only a small fraction of the anthropogenic emission. In a study of eight cities in China, the traffic emissions ratio is 7.0 (± 3.6) × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>3</sup> ppm/ppm [87]. The ratio is much larger than that in Switzerland. In comparison, CH4 comprises up to 61% (median: 34%) of the total volume of landfill gas, with the remaining 3% to 69% (median: 33%) being CO2 [88,89]. In the case of wetlands, the emissions ratio varies with the type of wetlands and sometimes is negative

because they act as sources of CH4 but sinks of CO2 [90–92]. The emissions ratio estimated from the regression slope is a composite signal of all the sources at the regional scale.

Table S1 summarizes the CH4/CO2 emissions ratio observed in different parts of the world. All these values were obtained as the regression slope of atmospheric CH4 concentration against the CO2 concentration. Some of these slope values were given by the cited literature, while others were estimated from the original concentration data. Our emissions ratio is close to those observed in Los Angeles and Pasadena, USA, but is higher than that observed in the daytime in Nanjing, China. The highest values occur in northern latitude remote sites far away from major industrial activities, such as Barrow, USA and Alert, Canada, due to abundant wetlands at these latitudes (>50% land area) [93]. About 60% of the total CH4 emission from natural wetlands come from those between latitude 50◦ N to 70◦ N [83].

#### *4.3. Comparison between the IPCC Method and the Atmospheric Method*

Shen et al. measured atmospheric CO2 and CH4 molar fraction at a suburban site in Nanjing from June 2010 to April 2011 [51]. They argued that the regression slope from daytime data represents emissions ratio of sources in the YRD, and the regression slope from nighttime data represents emissions ratio of the local sources in the Nanjing Municipality. Their atmospheric estimate for CH4 emission for sources in Nanjing is 200% higher than the IPCC estimate [51]. If we assume that the nighttime data in this study are also indicative of local sources in the Wuxi Municipality, our atmospheric estimate of the CH4 emission in the winter would be 1.8 × <sup>10</sup>8–2.3 ×10<sup>8</sup> kg, which is 4.4–5.7 times as large as the value calculated with the IPCC method (after exclusion of rice paddy emissions; Table 3). The IPCC method is far more uncertain at the urban scale than at the regional scale, for several reasons. First, cities do not have clear boundaries and direct emissions calculated based on urban statistics ignore some emissions of cities, such as aviation and waterways, so the total emission will be underestimated [94]. As the spatial scale increases, the dependence of the accounting area on cross-boundary transport of energy and material is smaller, and errors due to indirect emissions are reduced [95]. Second, emission factors at the cities are not measured accurately. Third, wastewater treatment and landfill are the two largest source categories in Wuxi, accounting for 45.6% of the city's total CH4 emissions; these two sources have the largest uncertainty.


**Table 3.** Anthropogenic CH4 emissions in Wuxi in 2012 based on the IPCC inventory method.

In comparison with the IPCC estimate for the YRD in the winter, the "top-down" atmospheric estimate in this study is 1.2–1.7 times the IPCC result. Shen et al.'s estimate of CH4 emission from the atmospheric method is 20% lower [51] than the IPCC estimate, even though their measurement and our measurement both took place in the same region (YRD) and not too far from each other (170 km apart). One possible reason for the difference is that Shen et al.'s observation site is not far away from industrial complexes and traffic roads. Traffic CH4/CO2 emissions ratio is generally much lower than regional emissions ratios, as noted above. According to the "bottom-up" results provided by the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), the global CH4/CO2 emissions ratios in the chemical production sector, the metal production sector, and the public electricity and heat production sector were 1.2 × <sup>10</sup>−3, 6.4 × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>4</sup> and 7.6 × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>5</sup> ppm/ppm, respectively in 2012 (http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=432&SECURE=123) [96]. The situation is

a little different in China. The CH4/CO2 emissions ratio is bigger for the chemical production sector (1.8 × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>3</sup> ppm/ppm), and is smaller for the metal production sector (4.7 × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>4</sup> ppm/ppm) and the public electricity and heat production sector (3.4 × <sup>10</sup>−<sup>5</sup> ppb/ppm). Thus, the CH4/CO2 emissions ratio for industrial complexes should be lower than regional emissions ratios. Because our measurement was made at a rural system not directly impacted by local traffic and industrial emissions (Figure S1), our emissions ratio should be more representative than that reported in [51].

Another reason for the difference between our study and the study by Shen et al. [51] is different source areas between Nanjing and MLW. Hu et al. [97] simulated the atmospheric CO2 concentration in Nanjing City using the WRF-STILT model. They found that the NUIST site is mainly affected by the central and eastern regions of Anhui Province and the central and western regions of Jiangsu Province, with greater concentration contribution weights than other regions in the YRD.

Previous studies have also reported that estimates of CH4 emission based on the "top-down" atmospheric method are higher than the "bottom-up" inventory estimates. In the Los Angeles metropolitan area in California, USA, anthropogenic CH4 emissions calculated from two "top-down" approaches are 1.3–1.8 and 1.2–1.6 times, respectively, of the "bottom-up" estimates [20,98]. The US EPA inventory and EDGAR, two "bottom-up" methods, are shown to underestimate CH4 emissions in the United States by a factor of about 1.5 and 1.7, with the underestimation coming from two sectors: livestock and fossil fuel extraction and processing [99]. That "bottom-up" results are generally smaller indicate that there are unknown emission sources or underestimates of the emission capacity of known sources, such as landfills, coal mining and wastewater treatment. Some scholars have found that based on carbon isotope observations, CH4 emissions from landfills and ruminants are underestimated by the IPCC method [100]. In China, the methane emission rate is reported to be eight times the IPCC emission estimate for natural gas vehicles [78]. If this result is taken into consideration, the anthropogenic CH4 emissions in the YRD would increase by 2.4% in 2015. In the urban Boston area, USA, natural gas loss rate from transmission, distribution and end use was 2.7 ± 0.6% of the total delivered gas, which is more than twice the result of the emission inventory [101]. In 2016, the length of natural gas pipeline reached 5.51 × <sup>10</sup><sup>5</sup> km in China, although the CH4 concentration measurements along urban street transects in eight Chinese cities show no evidence of pipeline leakage [87].

#### **5. Conclusions**

Continuous observation of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fraction was made at the MLW station near Wuxi at Lake Taihu from May 2012 to April 2017. These measurements were combined with anthropogenic CO2 emission data in a "top-down" method to obtain an estimate of the anthropogenic CH4 emission in the YRD. For comparison, the CH4 emission was also calculated with the IPCC inventory method. The key results are as follows:

(1) The growth rates of the CO2 and CH4 molar fractions at the MLW site were 2.5 ± 0.7 ppm year−<sup>1</sup> and 9.5 ± 4.7 ppb year−1, respectively, which are 9% and 53% higher than that observed at WLG over the same period.

(2) To avoid the interference of biological sources, we used the wintertime CO2 and CH4 concentration data to obtain the CH4/CO2 emissions ratio. Results indicate that the emissions ratio fluctuates between 0.0055 ± 0.0006 ppm/ppm (winters of 2012–2013 and 2014–2015) and 0.0068 ± 0.0005 ppm/ppm (winter of 2013–2014). These ratios are similar to those observed in Los Angeles and Pasadena, USA.

(3) According to the "top-down" method, the annual average anthropogenic emission of CH4 in the YRD from 2012 to 2015 is 4.37 (± 0.61) × 109 kg year−<sup>1</sup> (excluding rice cultivation), which is 1.2–1.7 times the result from the IPCC inventory.

(4) The "top-down" method also suggests that at the local scale, the IPCC inventory estimate for anthropogenic CH4 emission in the Wuxi municipality may be biased low by 4.4−5.7 times.

**Supplementary Materials:** Figure S1: Prevailing wind direction measured at the MLW site in winter (December 2015–February 2016). Figure S2: CH4/CO2 emissions ratio (ppm/ppm) estimated with different methods in

different regions, Table S1: Summary of CH4/CO2 emissions ratio (ppb/ppm) estimated with the atmospheric method found in the literature. Supplementary data file is available at: https://yncenter.sites.yale.edu/dataaccess.

**Author Contributions:** Data curation, W.H., J.X. and Y.H.; Formal analysis, W.H.; Investigation, W.H.; Methodology, W.H.; Resources, W.X., J.X., Y.H. and S.L.; Supervision, W.X., M.Z., W.W., C.H. and X.L.; Validation, C.H. and X.L.; Writing—original draft, W.H.; and Writing—review and editing, X.L.

**Funding:** This research was supported by internal grants from NUIST-Wuxi Research Institute.

**Acknowledgments:** We are grateful to all of the staff who work at the WMO/GAW stations in China for collecting the data, and to the Greenhouse Gases Research Laboratory of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) for data analysis. We appreciate Ed Dlugokencky, Andy Crotwell, and Kirk Thoning of NOAA for their help and support of the research measurements.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


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