**5. Conclusions**

This paper showcases the use of the two modern profitability analysis techniques, the fuzzy pay-off method, and simulation decomposition, in the environmental policy analysis. Both methods are able to depict uncertainty, and when used in conjunction, provide important insights for ex-ante analysis of policy effects. Both methods are relatively easy to implement, and their results are easy to visualize and interpret, which, coupled with their analytical power, make them appealing candidates for tools used for policy analysis. We analyzed policies to incentivize investments in biofuel production in the transportation sector. The illustrative conclusion reached is that a combination of penalties and tax-relief is a realistic policy alternative for sustainability transition.

Our conclusions are based on a stylized investment case and numerical assumptions available for Finland. If the analysis is performed for another country, the numerical assumptions need to be modified. However, we are employing methods that can handle uncertainty, data variation and imprecision. Wide ranges of input factors are considered. Therefore, we believe that our conclusions hold under a variety of circumstances and are generalizable.

Extending the range of applications and exploring complementarity of the considered techniques with other approaches are possible directions for future research.

**Author Contributions:** I.R.: conceptualization, data curation, methodology, writing—original draft preparation, and visualization; M.K.: conceptualization, data curation, methodology, writing original draft preparation, writing—review and editing, and visualization; M.C.: conceptualization, methodology, and writing—review and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** The authors acknowledge funding received from the Foundation of Economic Education, grant number 200153, and the support from the Finnish Strategic Research Council (SRC) at the Academy of Finland through the Manufacturing 4.0-project, grant number 335980 and grant number 335990.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Data Availability Statement:** All used data is presented in the manuscript.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
