**2. Methods and Data**

Both methods presented here are based on the fundamental concept of the time value of money and discounted cash-flows [33]. Both methods require constructing a cash-flow model of the investment project and computing its net present value (NPV). Both methods are based on constructing a distribution of possible project NPVs to present and handle the uncertainty that surrounds the investment. The fuzzy pay-off method operates partly in the possibilistic framework and builds a possibilistic NPV distribution or, put simply, a fuzzy number NPV. Simulation decomposition is based on probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation and utilizes the resulting probability distribution of NPVs further to decompose it into input-output analysis-based cohorts. The two methods are described in more detail below.
