*2.3. Contextual Variables*

*2.3. Contextual Variables* 

*2.2. Data and Indicators*  The resident population was derived from ten-year censuses of population and buildings whose results were disseminated by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT, the former ESYE, National Statistical Service of Greece). The analyzed period encompasses eight decades between 1940 and 2019 reflecting a cycle from urbanization to re-urbanization with sequential economic expansion and stagnation waves. For a few prefectures, the population at the beginning of the study period (1940) was reconstructed using published census reports of population count at municipal and village scale for the respective geographic area or administrative region. The territorial context that characterizes each prefecture in Greece was delineated considering eight ancillary variables: (i) population density ('Den'), linear distance from (ii) downtown Athens ('DistAth') and (iii) downtown Thessaloniki ('DistSal'), (iv) a dummy illustrating the North–South gradient in Greece and classifying prefectures as belonging to Northern regions (1: Trace, Macedonia, Epirus) or Southern regions (0: the rest of the country), (v) a dummy illustrating the East–West (Aegean-Ionian gradient) and classifying prefectures bordering the Aegean Sea with 1 and the remaining prefectures with 0, (vi) a dummy identifying prefectures hosting the head town of 13 administrative regions of Greece, considered as the largest cities in the country (1) compared with the remaining prefectures

intermediate spatial scale of the investigation was selected (prefectures) to assure a refined comparison of demographic trends over time instead of more detailed domains (e.g., municipalities), which revealed sometimes less stable in the first two decades of study. Annual population growth rates over each decade (1940–1951, 1951–1961, 1961–1971, 1971–1981, 1981–1991, 1991–2001, 2001– 2011, 2011–2019) were calculated and normalized subtracting the column mean and then dividing by the column standard deviation before analysis. Population density (inhabitants/km2) at prefectural level was computed for each year in the time series, deriving the total surface area of each analysis' spatial unit from a shapefile provided by ELSTAT. The same shapefile was used to regionalize

The territorial context that characterizes each prefecture in Greece was delineated considering eight ancillary variables: (i) population density ('Den'), linear distance from (ii) downtown Athens ('DistAth') and (iii) downtown Thessaloniki ('DistSal'), (iv) a dummy illustrating the North–South

demographic indicators and selected results of the analysis run in our work.

Despite small changes over time, census sources were widely selected in the analysis of longterm population dynamics at the regional scale. In our case, the population census was the most (0), (vii) a dummy identifying internal districts, i.e., mainland prefectures that do not have borders in common with the Ionian or the Aegean Sea (1) in respect with coastal prefectures (0) and, finally, (viii) a dummy identifying prefectures that include only islands (1) in respect with all the remaining prefectures (0). All these variables were made available from official statistics or derived from digital maps (www.geodata.gov.gr) using tools available in ArcGIS software (Redlands, USA). Considering the long time interval investigated in this study and the evident heterogeneity in the time series of many other relevant indicators, these variables—sometimes based on proxies of more complex demographic and socioeconomic processes—represent a satisfactory information ensemble contributing to clarify spatiotemporal population dynamics in Greek prefectures.
