*3.3. Population Growth and Territorial Background*

significant coefficient at *p* < 0.1).

A principal component analysis of population growth rates and territorial variables corroborates earlier results of this work (Figure 7). principal component analysis (Table 2) selected two axes accounting for 57.5% of the total variance. This analysis decomposed the most relevant processes of urban expansion (and the underlying drivers) in two independent gradients based on (i) population density and distance from Athens (component 1) and (ii) population dynamics and distance from Thessaloniki (component 2). component 2 discriminated between earlier phases of population growth (positive loadings) in turn associated with the North–South gradient, and later phases of growth (negative loadings). *Sustainability* **2020**, *12*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 19

**Figure 7.** Biplot of a principal component analysis decomposing population dynamics (1940–2019) in two independent dimensions of metropolitan growth in Greece. **Figure 7.** Biplot of a principal component analysis decomposing population dynamics (1940–2019) in two independent dimensions of metropolitan growth in Greece.

**Table 2.** Results of multiple regression models between the annual population growth rate (%) and predictors delineating the socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures in Greece (\* indicates

Constant 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.99 Constant 0.00 0.10 −0.01 0.99 Density −0.22 0.17 −1.31 0.20 Density 0.26\* 0.15 1.74 0.09 North–South 0.19 0.28 0.69 0.49 North–South 0.43\* 0.22 1.91 0.06 West–East −0.17 0.15 −1.13 0.26 West–East 0.22\* 0.12 1.83 0.07 DistAthens −0.55\* 0.22 −2.48 0.02 DistAthens −0.15 0.18 −0.81 0.42 DistSalonika −0.43\* 0.21 −2.07 0.04 DistSalonika 0.01 0.17 0.04 0.97 RegCapital 0.36\* 0.13 2.70 0.01 RegCapital 0.20\* 0.11 1.79 0.08 Internal dist. −0.03 0.16 −0.19 0.85 Internal dist. 0.13 0.13 0.94 0.35 Island 0.71\* 0.25 2.84 0.01 Island −0.30 0.21 −1.42 0.16

1940–1951: Adj-R2 = 0.19; F = 2.43; p = 0.03 1951–1961: Adj-R2 = 0.47; F = 6.53; p < 0.01

1961–1971: Adj-R2 = 0.60; F = 10.48; p < 0.001 1971–1981: Adj-R2 = 0.33; F = 4.12; p < 0.001

1981–1991: Adj-R2 = 0.08; F = 1.57; p = 0.16 1991–2001: Adj-R2 = 0.14; F = 1.98; p = 0.08

2001–2011: Adj-R2 = 0.56; F = 9.08; p < 0.001 2011–2019: Adj-R2 = 0.22; F = 2.81; p < 0.01

Constant 0.00 0.09 0.00 1.00 Constant 0.00 0.12 −0.01 0.99 Density 0.09 0.14 0.66 0.51 Density −0.22 0.20 −1.12 0.27 North–South 0.36\* 0.21 1.78 0.08 North–South 0.57\* 0.28 2.07 0.05 West–East 0.12 0.11 1.15 0.26 West–East 0.25\* 0.14 1.76 0.09 DistAthens 0.07 0.17 0.39 0.70 DistAthens −0.43\* 0.23 −1.88 0.07

Constant 0.00 0.13 0.00 1.00 Constant 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.99 Density −0.05 0.20 −0.23 0.82 Density −0.27 0.20 −1.36 0.18 North–South −0.05 0.30 −0.17 0.87 North–South −0.15 0.29 −0.52 0.61 West–East 0.12 0.15 0.79 0.43 West–East −0.01 0.15 −0.07 0.95 DistAthens −0.19 0.25 −0.76 0.45 DistAthens −0.06 0.24 −0.23 0.82 DistSalonika −0.19 0.22 −0.84 0.41 DistSalonika −0.39\* 0.22 −1.78 0.08 RegCapital 0.23 0.16 1.49 0.14 RegCapital 0.24 0.15 1.53 0.13 Internal dist. −0.26 0.17 −1.47 0.15 Internal dist. −0.14 0.17 −0.83 0.41 Island 0.17 0.26 0.64 0.53 Island 0.56\* 0.25 2.22 0.03

Constant 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.99 Constant 0.00 0.11 0.00 1.00 Density 0.37\* 0.12 2.96 0.01 Density 0.15 0.17 0.88 0.38 North–South 0.10 0.20 0.50 0.62 North–South 0.10 0.25 0.40 0.69 West–East 0.21\* 0.10 2.00 0.05 West–East 0.36\* 0.13 2.71 0.01 DistAthens −0.34\* 0.16 −2.12 0.04 DistAthens −0.02 0.21 −0.11 0.91 DistSalonika -0.18 0.15 −1.25 0.22 DistSalonika −0.01 0.19 −0.06 0.96 RegCapital 0.31\* 0.10 3.16 0.00 RegCapital 0.40\* 0.13 3.08 0.00 Internal dist. −0.07 0.11 −0.66 0.51 Internal dist. −0.01 0.15 −0.05 0.96 Island −0.07 0.18 −0.38 0.70 Island −0.21 0.23 −0.93 0.36


**Table 2.** Results of multiple regression models between the annual population growth rate (%) and predictors delineating the socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures in Greece (\* indicates significant coefficient at *p* < 0.1).

Multiple linear regression was carried out to delineate the predictors of population growth over each investigated decade in Greece (Table 2). Regression models were particularly significant for specific decades (1951–1961, 1961–1971, 1971–1981, 2001–2011) and less significant for the remaining time intervals. Regression analysis identified distance from Athens and Thessaloniki (negative impact), the regional capital city and insular contexts (positive impact) as the main factors associated with population growth during 1940–1951. Geographic gradients including the North–South and the East–West gradient and the presence of a regional capital city were identified as the main drivers of population increase during 1951–1961. Density, distance from Athens, the regional capital city and the East–West gradient were found significant predictors of population growth for 1961–1971. These last two variables were found significant also for 1971–1981. No significant variables were detected for 1981–1991. Distance from Thessaloniki and insular contexts were found significant during 1991–2001. North–south gradient, the regional capital city and insular contexts were significant during 2001–2011. Conversely, internal districts, together with the two geographic gradients and the distance from Athens, influenced population growth rates during the last decade (2011–2019). from Athens, influenced population growth rates during the last decade (2011–2019).

2001–2011. Conversely, internal districts, together with the two geographic gradients and the distance

*Sustainability* **2020**, *12*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 19

DistSalonika 0.14 0.16 0.86 0.39 DistSalonika −0.13 0.21 −0.63 0.53 RegCapital 0.29\* 0.11 2.60 0.01 RegCapital 0.01 0.15 0.09 0.93 Internal dist. −0.14 0.12 −1.18 0.25 Internal dist. −0.46\* 0.16 −2.85 0.01 Island 0.70\* 0.18 3.79 0.00 Island 0.40 0.25 1.58 0.12

Multiple linear regression was carried out to delineate the predictors of population growth over each investigated decade in Greece (Table 2). Regression models were particularly significant for specific decades (1951–1961, 1961–1971, 1971–1981, 2001–2011) and less significant for the remaining time intervals. Regression analysis identified distance from Athens and Thessaloniki (negative impact), the regional capital city and insular contexts (positive impact) as the main factors associated with population growth during 1940–1951. Geographic gradients including the North–South and the East–West gradient and the presence of a regional capital city were identified as the main drivers of population increase during 1951–1961. Density, distance from Athens, the regional capital city and the East–West gradient were found significant predictors of population growth for 1961–1971. These last two variables were found significant also for 1971–1981. No significant variables were detected
