*3.2. Spatial Regime of Long-Term Population Growth (or Decline) in Greece*

with positive (or negative) growth rates over 1981–2019).

*3.2. Spatial Regime of Long-Term Population Growth (or Decline) in Greece*  Hierarchical clustering illustrates similarities in long-term population dynamics across Greek prefectures. The analysis separated Attica and Thessaloniki, the largest urban areas in the country, from the remaining prefectures. Coastal areas and islands (from Kefallinia to Iraklio), expanding the most during the last decades, were also separated from the rest of the sample. However, island prefectures (Chios, Samos, Lesvos) in more peripheral locations of Northern Aegean were clustered together with coastal and inland prefectures in Peloponnese, depicting areas that experienced a more recent population expansion in response to suburbanization, decentralization of economic activities and development policies improving the attractiveness of peripheral coastal places (Figure 6). The remaining prefectures, representing the 'core' of the dendrogram, were mainly internal areas with variable population dynamics that are less correlated with the main waves of urbanization and Hierarchical clustering illustrates similarities in long-term population dynamics across Greek prefectures. The analysis separated Attica and Thessaloniki, the largest urban areas in the country, from the remaining prefectures. Coastal areas and islands (from Kefallinia to Iraklio), expanding the most during the last decades, were also separated from the rest of the sample. However, island prefectures (Chios, Samos, Lesvos) in more peripheral locations of Northern Aegean were clustered together with coastal and inland prefectures in Peloponnese, depicting areas that experienced a more recent population expansion in response to suburbanization, decentralization of economic activities and development policies improving the attractiveness of peripheral coastal places (Figure 6). The remaining prefectures, representing the 'core' of the dendrogram, were mainly internal areas with variable population dynamics that are less correlated with the main waves of urbanization and *Sustainability*  suburbanization at the national scale. **2020**, *12*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 19

**Figure 6.** Hierarchical clustering (Ward's agglomeration rule, Euclidean distance) classifying Greek prefectures on the base of long-term population dynamics. growth (negative loadings). **Figure 6.** Hierarchical clustering (Ward's agglomeration rule, Euclidean distance) classifying Greek prefectures on the base of long-term population dynamics.

**Table 1.** Spearman rank correlation analysis between the percent rate of population growth by time

**Variable Percent Rate of Population Growth** 

A principal component analysis of population growth rates and territorial variables corroborates earlier results of this work (Figure 7). principal component analysis (Table 2) selected two axes accounting for 57.5% of the total variance. This analysis decomposed the most relevant processes of urban expansion (and the underlying drivers) in two independent gradients based on (i) population density and distance from Athens (component 1) and (ii) population dynamics and distance from Thessaloniki (component 2). component 2 discriminated between earlier phases of population growth (positive loadings) in turn associated with the North–South gradient, and later phases of

Density 0.05 −0.07 0.36\* North–South 0.04 0.19 −0.23 West–East 0.44\* 0.31\* 0.37\* DistAthens −0.04 −0.05 0.00 DistSalonika −0.06 −0.25 0.32\* RegCapital 0.42\* 0.39\* 0.31\* Internal dis. −0.22 0.01 −0.49\* Island 0.04 −0.25 0.55\*

**1940–2019 1940–1980 1981–2019** 

interval and selected predictors of the local context (\* indicates significance at *p* < 0.05).

on population growth in Greece. Population density, the distance from Thessaloniki and being an island district had a positive impact only in the most recent period (1981–2019). Internal

districts harmed population growth during 1981–2019.

*3.3. Population Growth and Territorial Background* 

The relationship between population increase and background conditions in each prefecture was investigated considering nonparametric Spearman coefficients (Table 1). The

The relationship between population increase and background conditions in each prefecture was investigated considering nonparametric Spearman coefficients (Table 1). The West–East gradient and the presence of a regional capital city had the highest (positive) impact on population growth in Greece. Population density, the distance from Thessaloniki and being an island district had a positive impact only in the most recent period (1981–2019). Internal districts harmed population growth during 1981–2019.


**Table 1.** Spearman rank correlation analysis between the percent rate of population growth by time interval and selected predictors of the local context (\* indicates significance at *p* < 0.05).
