*Article* **Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case**

**Ernesto Alberto Alvarez 1, Mika Korkeakoski 2,\*, Ariel Santos Fuentefría 1, Miriam Lourdes Filgueiras Sainz de Rozas 1, Ramsés Arcila Padura 1 and Jyrki Luukkanen 2**


**Abstract:** The use of renewable energy sources (RES) has increased exponentially worldwide, as an alternative to the indiscriminate use of fossil fuels and to mitigate their effects on the environment. Cuba is not lagging behind in this development since the government's plan until 2030 includes the contribution of renewable sources as a fundamental component in the national energy mix. This paper models possible scenarios based on 2019 statistics for achieving a 25% and 100% penetration of renewable sources by 2030 in the Isla de la Juventud's (an island south of the main island of Cuba) electrical power system (EPS). This modeling is carried out utilizing and open source Excel-based accounting framework Long-range Integrated Development Analysis (LINDA). For this purpose, international and national trends in the use and development of renewable energy sources and the influence of the characteristics of each renewable source (wind, solar, biodiesel, battery storage) were analyzed. The analysis of Isla de la Juventud's electrical power system was based on the characteristics of its energy mix, the possibilities of renewable energy penetration and the current and future energy demand by sector. Based on the analysis, two probable scenarios were modeled with LINDA model: a 25% renewable energy-based scenario (RENES) and a 100% renewablesbased scenario (MAXRES). Results from RENES and MAXRES scenarios show high penetration of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is theoretically possible with the abundance of renewable energy resources, and thus it is possible for Cuba to move towards 100% renewable energy mix. However, the choices regarding the best fit energy mix need to be carefully analyzed in order to design a least cost system that answers the needs of the future demand.

**Keywords:** Isla de la Juventud; electrical power system; renewable energy; long-term planning; LINDA model
