*4.3. Analysis of Land Use Transitions*

#### 4.3.1. Inter-Period Transition

To understand agricultural land transition dynamics, the series is divided into three equal periods. The first period from 2009–2012 shows a decrease in grassland in favor of other variables. 944.58 km<sup>2</sup> of grassland was transformed into cropland. Then, 12.23 km<sup>2</sup> of grassland transformed into a permanent wetland, and 2.12 km<sup>2</sup> became urban and built up. This first approach shows a significant decrease of grassland at the expense of urbanism and permanent wetland indeed. Urbanism and permanent wetland have occupied about 14.35 km<sup>2</sup> of grassland. Urban and built-up alone, records 2.27 km2 on the grassland.

Transition in the second period (2012–2015) appears to be less intensive than in the first period. The transformation of cropland decreased. The area transformed from grassland to cropland went from 944.58 km2 to 363 km2, a decreasing 580.8 km2. Dynamic continues with the changes from grassland to permanent wetland with 2 km2. Similarly, 1.15 km2 of grassland has been converted to urban up and built. This situation shows a relatively slow evolution of urbanization. Therefore, compared to the first period, the results reflect a difference of 1.03 km2 of grassland converted to urban up. Concerning the last period, it witnesses transition compared to the second period. Indeed, we still note an extension of agricultural land compared to the grassland, representing 772.12 km2.

In this last part, our analysis points to a reversal of the permanent wetland and grassland. About 10.96 km<sup>2</sup> of permanent wetland have been transformed into grassland. Urbanization as for it evolved. We observed a 2.21 km<sup>2</sup> of grassland are again transformed into urban and built up. The inter-period analysis of land transition shows significant fluctuations. A few areas of cropland were transformed into urban and built up, in other cases, the grassland was transformed into cropland or urban and built up.
