*5.3. Twitter Analysis*

The Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises appears not to have a Twitter account. Similarly, due to the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas's frequent Tweeting, the extracted data using Twitter's standard API could only collect Tweets between July 2020 and May 2020, as this timeline was beyond the scope of this research, so the position of the minster could not be taken into account.

For the automotive industry actors, it was observed that the automobile manufacturer Mahindra & Mahindra frequently referred to their chief's, Mr. Anand Mahindra, Twitter account, so the data collection was expanded to include the Tweets from the chief. Similarly, we considered including the tweets from the presidents of SIAM, ACMA, FADA, ASDC, and other automobile manufacturers; but the industry associations in most cases retweeted the positions of their presidents, which were collected from the association's account. None of the other automobile manufacturers referred to the company presidents or any particular person.

This resulted in data collection from 17 actors from the ministries, ministers, industry associations, automobile skill enhancement organisation, and automobile manufacturers. The list of all the selected actors and their analysed Twitter timelines is indicated in Table 2.


**Table 2.** Selected actors and their analysed Twitter timeline.

The Minister of Environment Forest and Climate Change, who also led the Ministry of Heavy Industry and Public Enterprises, did not Tweet on either BS4 or BS6 emission control norms. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways mostly tweeted in Devnagari script, which was beyond the scope of this research. SIAM tweeted most frequently about the BS4 to BS6 transition, followed by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, FADA, and TVS Motors. The frequency of tweets is indicated in Figure 1.

**Figure 1.** Frequency of tweets on BS4 and BS6.

### *5.4. BS4-to-BS6 Transition: Key Events*

Based on aggregating the analysed Twitter data and its linked news articles, speeches of actors at automobile industry events, blogs, industry reports, and the policy documents, the following key events were identified. Some of these events were initiated by the identified actors, while others were actor's reactions to externalities. Figure 2 provides a quick overview of key events.

**Figure 2.** Overview of the BS4 to BS6 transition timeline.

### 5.4.1. Introduction of the BS4-to-BS6 Draft Policy (February 2016)

The draft policy for BS4-to-BS6 leapfrog, introduced in 2016 as an outcome of an interministerial meeting, was contested by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). SIAM appealed to the Supreme Court of India to negotiate the timeline on the ban on the sales of new BS4 vehicles. They underlined that after the introduction of BS6- compliant fuels, it will take their members three to six months to completely shift to BS6 vehicles and clear BS4 inventory; hence, the timeline for fuel availability and BS4 vehicle ban shall be one after the another [98]. SIAM represented its members, comprising about 40 Indian and foreign automobile manufacturers operating in India.

### 5.4.2. Finalisation of BS4-to-BS6 Transition (October 2018)

The Supreme Court of India rejected SIAM's appeal in October 2018 in a seminal judgement that supported the national government's decision to adopt BS6 from 2020 and prohibiting the sales of new BS4 vehicles beyond 31 March 2020. The court cited an urgency to act against air pollution and framing air pollution as an intergenerational equity issue [98].

### 5.4.3. Automobile Industry Slowdown (June 2019)

In 2019, the Indian automobile industry experienced one of the worst and unforeseen slowdowns. SIAM and FADA shared about the slowdown on their Twitter accounts. The plunge of 31% in the sales of passenger vehicles compared to the previous year indicates the magnitude of the crisis [99].

### 5.4.4. Announcement of Tax Reductions (July 2019)

The National Ministry of Finance addressed some of SIAM's and FADA's demands by reducing tax and easing the corporate social responsibility expenditure to include R&D activities [100]. After these measures, SIAM became optimistic for the growth in sales.

### 5.4.5. Public Events on BS4 (September 2019)

Along with the industry slowdown, the confusion among consumers about the validity of BS4-compliant vehicles throughout their registration period was a concern. This lowered the sales of BS4 vehicles. News about these events was shared on Twitter by SIAM, FADA, and the Minister of Road Transport and Highways.

### 5.4.6. Launch of First BS6 Compliant Vehicle (September 2019)

Honda Motors was the first to launch BS6 compliant two-wheeled vehicles, almost six months ahead of the national government's mandated timeline. The Minister of Road Transport and Highways shared about the launch on his Twitter account.

### 5.4.7. Launch of BS6-Compliant Fuel (October 2019)

BS6-compliant fuel was introduced in October 2019. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas shared this news on their Twitter account. This assured the automobile manufacturers and helped them plan for their BS6 inventories.

### 5.4.8. Renegotiation of the BS4 Transition Timeline by FADA (December 2019)

Members of FADA shared on Twitter that they had high levels of unsold BS4 vehicle inventory due to the auto industry slowdown and approached Supreme Court to renegotiate the timeline.

### 5.4.9. Massive Discounts on BS4 Vehicles (January 2020)

Promotion activities for BS4 vehicles surged. BS4 vehicles were promoted as technically on par with BS6 vehicles and lighter on the (customers) pockets. Individual automobile manufacturers like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, TVS Motors, FADA, and ASDC shared about the discounts and promoted BS4 vehicles on their Twitter accounts.

### 5.4.10. Advancement of Transition Timeline (February 2020)

Some sub-national governments and financial institutes set their own timelines to stop registration and lending for the BS4 vehicles ahead of the government's timeline. This was shared by SIAM in their Twitter feed.

### 5.4.11. Bank Crisis (March 2020)

One of the leading private banks in India was placed under a moratorium, limiting regular banking operations. Indian consumers rely up to 74% on external finance when purchasing automobiles [101], which further affected the BS4 inventory. This was tweeted by FADA.

### 5.4.12. Covid-19 National Lockdown (24 March 2020)

The Indian governmen<sup>t</sup> announced a countrywide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which further reduced the days available to liquidate BS4 inventory. The twowheeled dealers, which are often small and medium-sized businesses, had relatively higher BS4 inventories.

#### 5.4.13. Extension of the Sale of BS4 Vehicles: (27 March 2020)

Due to the COVID-19-induced countrywide lockdown, the Supreme Court of India allowed the members of FADA to sell their unsold vehicle inventory affected by the pandemic [102].

#### 5.4.14. Announcement on Completion of the BS4 to BS6 Transition (1 April 2020)

ACMA, SIAM, ASDC, and the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas announced the successful completion of transition on Twitter.

### 5.4.15. Evaluation of Transition Timeline Extension (July 2020)

The Supreme Court Reflected upon the extension to sell BS4-compliant vehicles and concluded that some dealers misused the extension; as a result, more BS4 vehicles were sold than anticipated [102].
