*Article* **Physics-Based Simulation of Sequences with Foreshocks, Aftershocks and Multiple Main Shocks in Italy**

**Rodolfo Console 1,2,†, Paola Vannoli 1,\*,†, and Roberto Carluccio 1,†**


† These authors contributed equally to this work.

**Abstract:** We applied a new version of physics-based earthquake simulator upon a seismogenic model of the Italian seismicity derived from the latest version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS). We elaborated appropriately for their use within the simulator all fault systems identified in the study area. We obtained synthetic catalogs spanning hundreds of thousands of years. The resulting synthetic seismic catalogs exhibit typical magnitude, space and time features that are comparable to those obtained by real observations. A typical aspect of the observed seismicity is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple main shocks of similar magnitude. Special attention was devoted to verifying whether the simulated catalogs include this notable aspect, by the use of an especially developed computer code. We found that the phenomenon of Coulomb stress transfer from causative to receiving source patches during an earthquake rupture has a critical role in the behavior of seismicity patterns in the simulated catalogs. We applied the simulator to the seismicity of the northern and central Apennines and compared the resulting synthetic catalog with the observed seismicity for the period 1650–2020. The result of this comparison supports the hypothesis that the occurrence of sequences containing multiple mainshocks is not just a casual circumstance.

**Keywords:** numerical modeling; earthquake simulator; statistical methods; earthquake clustering; northern and central Apennines
