**4. Results**

#### *4.1. Changes in Potential Land-Use Conflicts*

The quantitative results (Table 2) showed that the potential land-use conflicts between agricultural space and ecological space in Lin'an District showed an increasing trend during the study period. Specifically, the proportion of spatial units with controlled grades in 2008– 2018 was 86.19~88.33%, which accounted for nearly 90% of the total units of agricultural and ecological spaces in Lin'an District. The proportion of spatial units with stable and controlled grades fluctuated, showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing; the proportion increased by 0.47% during 2013 and 2018, but that increase was far lower than the decline during 2008 and 2013 (0.83%). The proportion of basically controlled spatial units continued to decline during 2008 and 2018. The proportion of basically uncontrolled spatial units increased over time, and the increase in 2013–2018 was 2.14 times that in 2008– 2013. The proportion of severely uncontrolled spatial units also continuously increased, from 3.23% in 2008 to 4.24% in 2018.

**Table 2.** Changes in the degree of land-use conflict between agricultural and ecological spaces in Lin'an District, 2008–2018.


The spatial distribution (Figure 2) clearly shows the expansion trend of uncontrolled (basically uncontrolled and severely uncontrolled) spatial units, and the distribution area of controlled spatial units continuously decreased over the study period. The distribution of stable and controlled spatial units in 2008–2018 was scattered throughout the Towns and Streets. The basically controlled spatial units were the most widely distributed, and their distribution area decreased during 2008 and 2018. The land-use types inside these spatial units mainly included forestland. In 2008, Yuqian town was the center of the zonal distribution of basically uncontrolled spatial units, and cultivated land was the main land-use type in these spatial units. Between 2013 and 2018, these spatial units were increasingly widely distributed and scattered. In 2008, the severely uncontrolled spatial units were mainly distributed in Qingshanhu Street, Jinnan Street, Qianchuan town, Qingliangfeng town and so on. With the passage of time, these spatial units gradually spread to the surrounding areas. By 2018, some spatial units gradually changed from basically uncontrolled to severely uncontrolled. The main areas of this change included Tianmushan town, Yuqian town and Longgang town.
