*4.3. Prediction of the Land-Use Spatial Pattern*

The predicted pattern of land use for 2030 shows that if the original land-use evolution law remains unchanged, the acreage of forest land will decrease by 53,586 ha and the acreage of construction land will increase by 25,719 ha compared to 2018. The acreage of cultivated land, grassland, and water areas is also predicted to increase by 20,796, 3656, and 1637 ha, respectively. The construction land area changed the most, reaching a growth rate of 29%, while the rate of decrement in the woodland area reached 8.2%. According to the land use transfer matrix, 28% of the reduced woodland area was converted into construction land and 61% was converted into cultivated land. A total of 47% of the increase in construction land came from cultivated land and 52% came from the conversion of woodland. As for the spatial pattern of land use, the predicted results for 2030 (Figure 5) show that the majority of new construction land is likely to be concentrated in the flat central corridor, mainly due to a radiant expansion of the existing construction land to the cultivated land around it. In the east and south, Yongkang and Dongyang have relatively larger areas of new construction land. The intensity of land development on the secondary development axis of the central Zhejiang urban agglomeration is greater.

**Figure 5.** Image of predicted land-use in 2030.

Based on the forecasted results for the land-use pattern in 2030, carbon emissions were predicted. The carbon sources are expected to increase by 29.6% by 2030. Carbon sinks are predicted to reduce by 7.8%, and total carbon emissions are predicted to increase by 30% compared to 2018. Compared with the 2005-2018 period, the growth rate of carbon emissions is predicted to drop significantly but still remain at a relatively high level. With the gradual decrease in the average carbon emissions intensity of construction land after 2015, the continued rapid growth of carbon emissions will be largely due to the unreasonable spatial layout of land use, which needs to be adjusted and optimized.

#### *4.4. Optimization of the Land-Use Spatial Pattern*

Through the linear programming model, we determined the land-use structure plan after low-carbon optimization (Table 9). In terms of quantity, in the optimized scheme, the construction land area is reduced by 18% compared with the predicted scheme, and the grassland, water area, and unused land areas reduce in accordance with the law of land use evolution in Jinhua. The woodland area increases by 11%, indicating that improving the forest coverage is an important way to increase carbon sinks to achieve carbon reduction and promote the green development mechanism. As for the direction of transfer, 59% of the additional construction land from 2018 to 2030 comes from cultivated land and 38% comes from forestland. In the optimized land-use pattern, the proportion of construction land converted from woodland is smaller than in the predicted result.


**Table 9.** Carbon emissions in 2030 for the predicted and optimized land-use patterns.

The quantitative targets and driving factors for low-carbon optimization were added to the FLUS model to determine the optimized land-use spatial pattern for Jinhua in 2030 (Figure 6). The additional construction land area was shown to mainly come from the radial expansion of existing construction land in the urban areas of Jinhua and Yiwu, but it was more directional compared with the forecasted expansion in all directions. The proportion of newly added construction land in the northeast of Jinhua city and the southwest of Yiwu city of the central corridor area was found to increase, which is consistent with the east–west expansion strategy of Jinhua and presents more obvious ribbon-form and cluster characteristics. Compared with the forecasted results, the expansion of the construction land area around Yongkang and Dongyang was predicted to decrease. The construction land areas in the southwest of Jinhua and the northeast of Yiwu were shown to decrease and concentrate more around the main axis of the Jinhua-Yiwu metropolitan area. They will be distributed around the Jinhua-Yiwu Expressway, which will contribute to the addition of production factors to the traffic arterial line. The green ecological zone in the central basin will be less affected by the expansion of construction land, and the acreage of cultivated land will decrease, and the acreage of woodland will increase. Total carbon emissions from the optimized land-use pattern will reduce by 19% compared with the value shown by the predicted results. Carbon sinks will increase by 11%. Carbon sources will reduce by 18%. In the scenario of low-carbon optimization, the growth rate of land-use carbon emissions is predicted to be only 6.2% from 2018–2030, lower than that of each period in the past.

**Figure 6.** Optimized land-use spatial pattern in 2030.
