*3.1. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of PLES*

As shown in Table 1, land use in the Yellow River Basin was reclassified into living– production space (LPS), production–ecological space (PES), ecological–production space (EPS), and ecological space (ES) by using LUCC data. Additionally, the PLES distribution patterns in 2010, 2015, and 2018 were obtained (Figures 2–4). The CA–Markov model was applied to predict and analyze the distribution pattern of PLES in the Yellow River Basin in 2025, using the kappa coefficient to test the consistency between the simulation results and the current distribution of land-use types in 2018; the results suggested that the kappa value was greater than 0.85, indicating that the simulation results of the CA–Markov model were more satisfactory. The spatial pattern of PLES in the Yellow River Basin in 2025 is shown in Figure 5.

From 2010 to 2025, EPS remains the most prominent among PLES categories in the Yellow River Basin, which is concentrated and widely distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, with an annual average area that exceeds 50% of the total area of the basin. PES in the Yellow River Basin is widely distributed as well, with an annual mean area of about 36%, concentrated in the Yellow Huaihai Plain, Fenwei Plain, Ning-Meng Plain, and other major agricultural production areas, and also widely scattered in the Loess Plateau and other areas. ES is spread mostly in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin and the source region of the Yellow River, mainly in form of desert, sand, Gobi, bare land, and other unused land types, with an average area of about 9% for many years. LPS is found mostly in Jinan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Taiyuan, Hohhot, Yinchuan, Lanzhou, Xining, and their surrounding areas, with a cluster-like concentrated distribution, sharing only a minimum area of about 4%.

**Figure 2.** Spatial pattern of PLES in the Yellow River Basin in 2010.

**Figure 3.** Spatial pattern of PLES in the Yellow River Basin in 2015.

**Figure 4.** Spatial pattern of PLES in the Yellow River Basin in 2018.

**Figure 5.** Predicted spatial pattern of PLES in the Yellow River Basin in 2025.

Table 2 shows the changes in the PLES area and their proportion in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2025. Overall, EPS and PES are still the dominant PLES types in this period—the combined area of both exceeds 85% of the total area of the basin. The spatial area of the two does not vary significantly with time, and the year-to-year variation is mostly less than 0.1%, which is basically a stable state. In contrast, the LPS area of the Yellow River Basin shows a yearly growth trend, expected to increase from 2.51 × 104 km<sup>2</sup> in 2010 to 4.28 × 104 km2 in 2025—an expansion of nearly 70% in 15 years, and the growth rate is increasing year by year. In addition, the ES area of the Yellow River Basin is gradually decreasing, from 7.59 × 104 km<sup>2</sup> in 2010 to 6.48 × 104 km2 in 2025, and the decreasing trend is expected to gradually intensify from 2018 to 2025.

