*3.1. Spatiotemporal Pattern of PLE Space: Economic Development Is Related to the Decline of Ecological Space and General Agricultural Production Space*

The spatial distribution of PLE spaces is shown in Figure 5. Restricted ecological space (ER) is mainly distributed in the western part of Zhaotong city, but it is more concentrated in the southwestern part. The priority ecological space (EP) is distributed in the south and northwest of the city. The general ecological space (EG) is more scattered. The area of accommodated ecological space (EA) is small. Priority agricultural production space (PP) is distributed in the city's central part and is more concentrated and contiguous, while general agricultural production space (PG) is in the northeastern part. In addition, industrial production space (PI), urban living space (LU), and rural living space (LR) are more scattered.

The land areas of the PLE spaces in 2010, 2015, and 2018 are shown in Table S14. Detailed subclass areas are shown in Table S15. Table S20 shows that the ecological space extends over an area of more than 16,200 km2, accounting for more than 72% of the total, followed by the production space at approximately 6000 km2, accounting for approximately 27%, and then by the living space, the smallest area at only approximately 1%. Among ecological spaces, the areas of priority ecological space and general ecological space accounted for more than 90%. Living spaces are mainly rural living space, accounting for approximately 70%.

In terms of changing trends, the ecological space area decreased from 2010 to 2018 but not significantly. Figure 6 shows that between 2010 and 2018, Zhaotong's GDP continued to increase, while at the same time, the space for priority ecological space continued to decrease. Conversely, production space decreased significantly from 6031 km2 in 2010 to 6000 km2 in 2018, which was mainly due to the decrease in general agricultural production space. There was a clear trend of growth in living space, from 194.67 km2 in 2010 to 232.97 km<sup>2</sup> in 2018, with an increase of approximately 20%. This increase is mainly due to the expansion of urban living space, which was only 40.78 km2 in 2010, reaching 72.76 km2 in 2018, with an increase of approximately 78%.

The transfer matrix between 2010 and 2015 is shown in Table S16. The most significant growth between 2010 and 2015 was in industrial production space, which increased from 15.74 to 32.75 km2. The expansion of industrial production space mainly encroached on priority agricultural production space (8.69 km2) and priority ecological space (4.96 km2), accounting for 51% and 29% of the expansion space, respectively. The main distribution of industrial space is in the central region. The most significant growth between 2015 and 2018 was in urban living space, which increased from 42.97 to 72.76 km2 (Table S17). Urban living space expansion mainly encroached on priority agricultural production space (16.74 km2) and industrial production space (12 km2), accounting for 56% and 41% of the total expansion space, respectively. This change in use was concentrated in the central region.

(**b**)

(**a**)

**Figure 5.** *Cont.*

(**c**)

**Figure 5.** (**a**–**c**) represent the spatial distribution of PLE space in 2010, 2015, and 2018, respectively.ER is restricted ecological space. EP is priority ecological space. EG is general ecological space. EA is accommodated ecological space. PP is priority agricultural production space. PG is general agricultural production space. PI is industrial production space. LU is urban living space. LR is rural living space.

**Figure 6.** Changing trends of PLE space and GDP from 2010 to 2018.

#### *3.2. Assessment of the Optimization Scenarios from the View of Total Amount: A High Level of Development Is More Conducive for Achieving the Planned Target of 2030*

The planning goal for economic and social development in the "Urban Master Planning of Zhaotong City (2011–2030)" was used as a basis for reference. The economic development target is to reach a regional GDP of 410 billion RMB and a per capita GDP of approximately 67,000 RMB by 2030. For the social development target, the total population is 6.15 million, and the urbanization rate is 55%.

Based on the constructed SD model of PLE space, the simulated values of the main variables under different scenarios in 2030 were obtained, as shown in Table S18. This result indicates that under the base scenario, the regional GDP is 340.508 billion yuan by 2030, with a total population of 6,245,700 people, the GDP per capita of 54,500 yuan, and an urbanization rate of 68.33%. This means that under the base scenario, the regional GDP and GDP per capita cannot meet the planning target, although the population and urbanization rate can.

As shown in Table S18 and Figure 7, A1, B1, and C1 can meet the planning requirements. The remaining six scenarios show the opposite. Under Scenario A1, the regional GDP is 461.444 billion yuan by 2030, the total population is approximately 6.424 million, the GDP per capita is 71.8 thousand yuan, and the urbanization rate is 71.27%. Since the difference between Scenario B and Scenario C is mainly reflected in the constraints on agricultural space during spatial allocation, the quality is the same. Under Scenarios B and C, the regional GDP is 460.220 billion yuan, the total population is 6,424,400 people, the GDP per capita is 71,600 yuan, and the urbanization rate is 71.24%.

**Figure 7.** Development target in 2030 and simulation results of different scenarios.
