**Image 5. Cafeteria of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)** Richiamo Cafe UTM Cafeteria

Source from https://www.utm.my (accessed on 26 May 2021)

Source from https://www.utm.my (accessed on 26 May 2021) Source from https://www.utm.my (accessed on 26 May 2021) Source from https://www.utm.my (accessed on 26 May 2021)

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Source from https://news.usm.my (accessed on 26 May 2021) Source from https://news.usm.my (accessed on 26 May 2021) **Image 4. Cafeteria of Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM)** Kolej 13 Cafeteria Kolej 16 Cafeteria

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## *Article* **A Co-Created Methodological Approach to Address the Relational Dimension of Environmental Challenges: When Critical Legal Analysis Meets Illustrated Storytelling**

**Margherita Paola Poto 1,2,\* and Arianna Porrone <sup>3</sup>**


**Abstract:** Environmental education research needs to take into account the relational dimension of the ecological challenges of our time. It requires the development of methodological techniques that prioritize community concerns, and generally foster positive relational dynamics of the research and study group. This leads to the construction of a research and educational approach around the collective and cocreated interpretation of stories related to ecological bonds and knowledge, and the adoption of illustrations enabling participation, inclusion, and interaction among the parties. Through the lens of critical legal analysis and participatory research, we explore the beneficial effects of cocreating knowledge with the help of a specific learning toolkit (LT), built around storytelling and designed to stimulate respectful relationships between participants. The LT addresses a wide audience of indigenous and local communities, students, and researchers. Founded on participated storytelling, collective interpretation, and illustration, the toolkit includes (1) the project cover, (2) an illustrated handbook based on an indigenous story, and (3) the illustration and conceptualization of a silent book. Through the interpretation of stories on the ecological bonds between humans and nonhumans, we analyze how the process of looking for common solutions to environmental threats makes participants reflect on their relational connection to the theme and each other. We also observe how the discussion generates a sense of responsibility that comes with bringing a new idea into being. The result is that both education and research become part of the solution to the challenge itself in the shape of a harmonious relational and transformative experience. The solution lies in the recognition of the individual and collective capacity to change systems by changing relationships. Only through a collective effort towards a common sense of relational accountability and trust we can heal the wounds of our planet, and our individual and collective wounds.

**Keywords:** participatory; learning; critical; legal; theory; integral; ecology; relational

## **1. Introduction**

"The idea of a system of infinite relationships *between everything and everything else*" (I. Calvino, Six Memos for the Next Millennium, 1988).

Legal, philosophical, and spiritual reflections on environmental ethics converge in the belief that the ecological crisis of our time reflects the dysfunction of the human and nonhuman relationship [1–9]. As Karen O'Brien puts it, 'Adaptation involves more than simply accommodating the impacts of climate change: it is also about confronting the societal context in which these changes are occurring' [5]. This study develops from the premise that a participatory approach in environmental legal studies contributes to the improvement of the societal context in academia and research. Such an improvement is crucial to address environmental challenges, considering the key role played by academia and research as fundamental incubators in the support and advancement of environmental

**Citation:** Poto, M.P.; Porrone, A. A Co-Created Methodological Approach to Address the Relational Dimension of Environmental Challenges: When Critical Legal Analysis Meets Illustrated Storytelling. *Sustainability* **2021**, *13*, 13212. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su132313212

Academic Editors: António Raposo and Heesup Han

Received: 9 October 2021 Accepted: 25 November 2021 Published: 29 November 2021

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

solutions. Therefore, in the attempt to provide a scientific response to ecological relational dysfunctions, this study explores the applications of a novel methodological approach that combines critical legal thinking, participatory learning and action (PLA), and art-based (ARB) research. The interdisciplinary study of the ecological crisis applies a lens that brings together legal reflections, indigenous models of research and knowledge, and the narrative of ecofeminism, united in the aim of 'changing the system, not the climate' [10]. The system can be changed precisely by starting from the production, research, and teaching of knowledge, and thus from the world of research and education.

The novel combination of critical legal analysis with PLA [11–14] and ARB [15,16] is relevant in light of Leavy's argument [16], according to which scientific and artistic methodologies bear intrinsic similarities since they both attempt to illuminate aspects of the human condition. The participatory and artistic inquiry is structured through workshops that involve communities of researchers and students, and foster their interaction.

The workshops are further embedded in the context of integral ecology (IE), intended as the integrated framework encompassing visible and nonvisible aspects of natural and social systems, which allows for decentering from the human dimension and focusing on the relational one [17,18]. In the world of research and scientific methodologies, the IE perspective translates exactly in the need for employing participatory processes aimed at cocreating solutions to current ecological challenges, which result in a relational problem or dysfunction. In this system, where 'the whole is greater than the part' [18]: (i) ecological solutions transcend disciplinary and sectoral boundaries; (ii) the subject–object dichotomy of research is critically revisited and overcome; and (iii) hierarchical power structures that are established in the scientific community are generally rethought, reread, and reinterpreted in the light of the values of care, relational accountability, respect, reciprocity, and responsibility.

An artistic and participatory process that looks into the environmental threats of our times through the perspective of IE may be more likely to find fertile terrain for an effective cocreation of the solution to the challenges insofar as IE unifies life as an intersubjective system [17,18]. IE looks into the ecological challenges to detect the symptoms of a relationship problem in the planetary wounds [19]. The transformational change that an artistic participatory approach of knowledge cocreation generates is expected to advance the body of solutions to the relational problems in the intersubjective system that is the IE.

## **2. Materials and Methods**

## *2.1. From Indigenous Methodology and Legal Design (LD) to the Learning Toolkit (LT)*

Our understanding of the role of cocreation of knowledge in the relational study of ecological issues is supported by theoretical and empirical approaches, both inspired by the (1) indigenous methodology [20] and (2) legal design. First, we developed our approach to relational research thanks to the training and the experience gained from the Indigenous Law Research Unit (ILRU), Victoria, British Columbia, Canada [21]. The ontological set of values that indigenous methodology brings to the table of a scientific approach to law and social studies is rooted in the idea that a continuously informed consciousness is generated within the community of research participants, where the relation of researcher–researched becomes irrelevant if not highly questionable, and where the ultimate goal is to explore how to change and improve the relational flow between participants and reality. In such a realization, there are numerous angles from which we draw insights, all valid and including ecofeminism, critical analysis, storytelling, and other multisensory experiences such as visual and illustrated narratives.

Second, we also developed our materials around the study of the communicative and evocative power of images in legal communication. The use of illustrations is a relatively new technique in legal research. Thanks to the research carried out by the Legal Design Lab at Standford University, coordinated by Margaret Hagan, in collaboration with the Faculty of Law and the Faculty of Design, illustrated language and legal research are also gradually establishing themselves as a discipline of study and an object of research [22–25].

Margaret Hagan, in particular, studied the stages of design thinking, observing how illustrations can complement the process of creating legal solutions centered on human needs. The researcher used the expression 'human-centred design approach' to define a methodological approach that aims to generate new forms of intervention and solutions to complex problems [25]. Using the technique of human-centredness, the needs of the parties are identified and graphically represented. This approach, according to Margaret Hagan, fits perfectly with PLA.

A final related field is legal participatory action research. Like a human-centered design approach, this form of action research also involves close work with the stakeholders in a given challenge area, and it encourages researchers to use interactions and creative work to produce new insights. Legal design borrows from the social science participatory action research approach. It involves researchers working alongside people whom they are studying or in the context that they want to understand [25].

Another cluster of excellence in the study of legal design, which integrates aspects of visual law and illustrated legal research on environmental issues, is being consolidated in Brazil, at the Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, thanks to the research team coordinated by Giulia Parola, which sees the collaboration of a law firm, young researchers belonging to the indigenous Chiquitano people from Mato Grosso (in Brazil), and a group of legal design consultants [26–28].

Against this background, our methodology consists of a three-step process conveying into our LT that includes the following materials: (1) The ideation of the concept idea or project cover (2019); (2) development and testing of a handbook (2020); (3) illustration and conceptualization of a silent book (2021).

The concept idea of the LT was first launched with project cover An Illustrated Storybook on Indigenous Stories (Step 1, Figure 1) representing the interaction between two shape-shifter feminine spirits that voice (indigenous) stories. Both stories and storytellers mirror the fluid and immanent governing water and earth in such a way that can be understood by students, indigenous and nonindigenous researchers, and community members at large. The two spirits of water and earth intend to accompany the overall project as if it was an illustrated story of stories in itself, collecting narratives, ideas, and observations on the symbiotic relationship that governs communities and nature. The cover representing the idea was presented in 2019 during international workshop Kjønnsforskning NÅ!, endorsed by the Gender Research Group, at the UiT The Arctic University of Norway [29]. The idea to build bridges between different legal cultures and orders with the help of illustrations led to a successful and well-received first project outcome, and the cover was published as a final scientific product. Hence, the inspiration to continue developing the idea to open creative venues for legal reflections.

Step 2 (Figure 2) of our LT was largely inspired by this work, with the creation and publication of handbook A Story About Knowledge, inspired by an Arctic story (based on the learning materials of the University of the Arctic, training module 4, edited by Gord Bruyere and Einar Bergland), and specifically rooted around an illustrated episode of the story [30].

The story was chosen for the focus on the search for the best place where to find and guard knowledge. The search is triggered by the Creator's request addressed to a trickster spirit, to find that place, and it is delegated from the trickster spirit to the animals of Earth (symbolically represented by a bear, an eagle, a salmon, and a mole). The search becomes an interactive, situated, and yet delocalized thought-provoking process. One of the protagonists of the story is the mole, gifted without apparent eyesight and with great vision. Knowledge is found and guarded in the heart of Earth, and it is the mole that, at a first sight, seems to solve the enigma. At a deeper level, though, the audience realizes that the solution is the result of a collective sum of apparently vain individual efforts of the other animals. The illustration, the narration of the story based on the illustration, and a series of lessons are the three core elements of the handbook. The lessons are developed

*Sustainability* **2021**, *13*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 10

around a character of the story, and are intended to stimulate reflections and debate around the roles of the characters in the unfolding of the story.

**Figure 1.** Concept idea. Illustrated storybook of indigenous stories as a learning tool for scholars and communities; illustration by Valentina Russo, Mucho Amor, 2019, published in https://doi.org/10.7557/5.5040. **Figure 1.** Concept idea. Illustrated storybook of indigenous stories as a learning tool for scholars and communities; illustration by Valentina Russo, Mucho Amor, 2019, published in https://doi.org/10.7 557/5.5040. *Sustainability* **2021**, *13*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 10

**Figure 2.** Handbook, colored version of the official book cover. A Story About Knowledge, illustrated by Valentina Russo, Mucho Amor, 2020. **Figure 2.** Handbook, colored version of the official book cover. A Story About Knowledge, illustrated by Valentina Russo, Mucho Amor, 2020.

colored settings (the mountainside, airspace, the waterside, the underground). Five art prototypes display the five crucial moments of the animals' search for knowledge, and consequent full immersion in and interaction with their own environment. The key episodes were developed in the form of an illustrated book for kids of all ages, and ultimately as a silent book. The book aims to become eligible for the program of Silent Books: Final Destination Lampedusa, The IBBY Network [32], a book network that donates wordless books to a newly created library in Lampedusa. Our LT addresses a composite audience of university students, researchers, and the community at large, in person and face to face,

**Figure 3.** Image 4, excerpt, Russo, V. (illustrator). *A Story About Knowledge*. *Illustrated version*. ed. by

A. Porrone and M. P. Poto, Aracne: Roma, forthcoming 2021.

and with digital research or facilitation.

Step 3 (Figure 3), or the silent book [31], continues along the line of the conceptual idea (working on the relational aspect of ecology), this time situated in geographical and colored settings (the mountainside, airspace, the waterside, the underground). Five art prototypes display the five crucial moments of the animals' search for knowledge, and consequent full immersion in and interaction with their own environment. The key episodes were developed in the form of an illustrated book for kids of all ages, and ultimately as a silent book. The book aims to become eligible for the program of Silent Books: Final Destination Lampedusa, The IBBY Network [32], a book network that donates wordless books to a newly created library in Lampedusa. Our LT addresses a composite audience of university students, researchers, and the community at large, in person and face to face, and with digital research or facilitation. idea (working on the relational aspect of ecology), this time situated in geographical and colored settings (the mountainside, airspace, the waterside, the underground). Five art prototypes display the five crucial moments of the animals' search for knowledge, and consequent full immersion in and interaction with their own environment. The key episodes were developed in the form of an illustrated book for kids of all ages, and ultimately as a silent book. The book aims to become eligible for the program of Silent Books: Final Destination Lampedusa, The IBBY Network [32], a book network that donates wordless books to a newly created library in Lampedusa. Our LT addresses a composite audience of university students, researchers, and the community at large, in person and face to face, and with digital research or facilitation.

**Figure 2.** Handbook, colored version of the official book cover. A Story About Knowledge, illus-

Step 3 (Figure 3), or the silent book [31], continues along the line of the conceptual

*Sustainability* **2021**, *13*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 10

trated by Valentina Russo, Mucho Amor, 2020.

**Figure 3.** Image 4, excerpt, Russo, V. (illustrator). *A Story About Knowledge*. *Illustrated version*. ed. by A. Porrone and M. P. Poto, Aracne: Roma, forthcoming 2021. **Figure 3.** Image 4, excerpt, Russo, V. (illustrator). *A Story About Knowledge*. *Illustrated version*. ed. by A. Porrone and M. P. Poto, Aracne: Roma, forthcoming 2021.

## *2.2. Testing the Foundations with Communities of Students and Researchers*

Enhancing Environmental Reflections through a Consolidated Classroom Practice

In mid-2020, we brought into play the LT through a set of seminars and a series of academic lectures that we held for young researchers and students in the fields of global studies, law, economics, and interdisciplinarity.

In particular, we integrated our Step 2 into university curricula: in an elective undergraduate course on administrative law and the agenda 2030, and on public law for economics (University of Turin, Italy, Department of Management; academic years: 2019– 2022); in a module of the master's program on food security and safety (University of Turin, Italy, academic year: 2020). Moreover, we used the teaching material to lead a seminar on the theme of situated knowledges as part of the core activities complementing Year I and II students' doctoral training in Global Studies. Justice, Rights, Politics (University of Macerata, Italy, Department of Political Science, Communication and International Relations, Academic year: 2019–2020). Eventually, the teaching methodology was adopted in an interdisciplinary master's program on global health with a specific focus on Arctic governance (McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada 2021).

Our approach to Step 2 of the LT steers the process of learning and environmental problem solving through a consolidated practice. Seminars and classes were designed to deepen the individual and collective awareness of the root causes of ecological wounds, and the role that participatory research and education can play in the wound-healing

process. Before the seminar or class starts, we send an invitation to the participants to come prepared on a general reflection about their understanding of why their environment is degraded, and the role that they and other members of their communities and society at large play in this process. Where possible, we send the text of the story to the participants before the session with instructions for a preliminary reading.

Engagement with Step 2 of the LT follows a protocol that contains care and gratitude at its core. We thank the audience, the territory that embraces us (especially in cases of occupied lands), and the virtual space that hosts our meeting. At times, we initiate the conversation by reading the text of the story out loud, respecting breaks and silences in the text to slowly accompany readers into the story. Every time, we experience the power of reading out loud, the fully engaging exercise where all our energy as readers–narrators is put into the task without any distraction. It is a multisensory activity (engaging voice, hear, sight) that builds a strong connection between the mind and voice of the readers and the listeners. It seems comparable to the work of a solo player who interacts with an orchestra. The spoken word helps to strengthen our minds and take ownership of our ideas, filling in the room with sound and meaning, building bridges and connections between participants.

When our time is limited, after giving attendees time to read and reflect, we summarize the story's main points, focusing on the physical and psychological features of the animals and the symbolic integration in their environment.

After the story reading or telling, we listen to the audience's impressions and report back preliminary impressions (first reactions to an unconventional academic text, potential common themes, summaries of previous experiences with the same story or with illustrated storytelling) before initiating a deeper conversation around the subject matter. When we use the learning toolkit in teaching environments, we tend to ask our audience to work as a team to provide feedback, identify common key ideas that require refining, changing, or additions, and emphasize themes or ideas that resonate with them. Each animal's action or decision making is associated with a specific lesson, composed of an objective, keywords, questions, and an interactive activity.

Before, during, and after the sessions, participants are encouraged to engage with the handbook by providing written answers and their creativity. Creative answers by designing and coloring journaling prompts are highly encouraged and recommended. Multisensory experiences are part of the learning process and a proactive way to respond to the sequence of questions specifically designed for the project. Engaging with the story lesson through journaling exercises and prompts is part of a collective therapeutic process to bring about awareness on the need to heal the planet by healing our relationships and improving our overall health conditions by creatively engaging with inner and outer conflicts. The work outside the seminar room contributes to spur new conversations, allowing for us to discuss key issues in greater depth, elevating the richness and complexity of mutual understanding. Through these continued conversations, the key underlying principles forming a common conceptual framework of integral ecology were identified, for instance, in how the relationship with the environment and the peoples emerges from narratives, stories, and dreams, and what it entails in terms of rules and obligations for the communities.

Our sessions aim to self-empower and motivate participants to take action, develop relational strength through empathy, compassion, and care for each other and for the environment that surrounds them.

A typical structure for the conduction of activity through Step 2 of our LT is provided in Table 1.

**Table 1.** Example of participatory techniques of self- and collective reflection through storytelling applied to education and research.

## **Reading of the Story—A Story About Knowledge**

Brainstorming—participants are asked to think about the role played by one of the characters of the story, e.g., in the case of the bear, we ask participants to reflect on the role of leaders and decision makers. This process can be developed through different steps, involving the intellectual ability to:


Sharing session—participants are asked to work in a group:


Ranking engagement: participants are asked to:


## **3. Results and Discussion**

The research results of the cocreated approach include the organization of a workshop on Donna Haraway [33], with a focus on the need to rethink and reframe current ecological challenges through new stories with research group Social Dynamics in Marine and Coastal Areas (Kiel University, Germany, Department of Geography, Academic year: 2020–2021).

In particular, the workshop was held on a digital platform (Zoom) and accompanied by an interactive ppt (Canva) with research group Social Dynamics in Marine and Coastal Areas (Kiel University, Germany, Department of Geography), and benefited from a relaxed, friendly, and open atmosphere. Engagement with the story led the participants to unexpected scenarios. Reflecting with the help of an illustrated story is an unconventional method, especially in Western-based research contexts. The session facilitator played a key role by creating the rules of the game and the atmosphere to engage all participants in the common working space. The session opened with the story reading and the assignment of an active role to the participants. Participants were asked to reflect on the main research question with the help of the story, compare the story with other resources, share their opinions, and synthesize the results in a common conceptual framework. Results were then collectively reassessed, and rereading the story ends the workshop. In this case, it was the illustration of the mole and her underground world, filled with important questions (Porrone, Poto, 2021, such as 'How is wisdom related to the senses?', 'How is it related to individual and collective efforts?', and 'What does the earth teach to the researchers?') that guided the meditation.

Take-away reflections included questions on epistemology and methodology (e.g., on the actors involved in knowledge production, on the way knowledge is achieved, and on the purpose of such an achievement). Such issues and many others were discussed in a final group session, collectively and in a nonjudgmental space. All participants contribute to the cocreation of a healthy and respectful environment. A participant referred to this as a form of 'collective intelligence', open to unpredictable possibilities, a process that should also translate into the vocabulary of law and global studies. A research environment based on a healthy relationship between researchers has beneficial effects on the quality of the research content and ultimately on a healthy planet.

The experience of delving into collaborative educational and research activities, and thus engaging in a reciprocal effort of cocreating and looking for solutions, shifts the conversation towards purpose, intention, and the consciousness of a common interconnected world. Discussing concerns for the natural environment, increased climate change threats, economic and social disparity, or inadequacy of the international legal tools to overcome the fragmentation of the actors and solutions, led us to reflective questions (e.g., "What is the ontological structure of nature that law should mimic?" and "How can we make the international community shift towards a novel conceptual structure?") or evaluative statements about action (e.g., "It will be the next generations who will suffer the most, which is why we have to build a sustainable model for future generations"). In a sense, these reflections develop a sense of relational accountability, as knowledge exchange and collective search for solutions are understood to be part of a ceremony [34], which raises the level of consciousness of our reciprocal duties to respect, honor, and care for each other and our environment.

Overall, the positive impact that the research has on the principal investigators is part of the success of the project. Following a protocol of respect and care for the place that is hosting gatherings teaches the coordinators the value of intellectual humility by the act of establishing a connection between people and the physical space that hosts them [35].

Moreover, erasing the divide of researchers and researched gives a new dimension to equality, where barriers between teacher and learner vanish, and the relational flow does not encounter hierarchical obstacles. Dealing with problems and solutions with the help of nonverbal languages, such as illustrations, silences, and sounds, provides a richer experience of the diverse approaches and relational attitudes towards a problem.

## **4. Conclusions**

This paper analyzed the conceptually and methodologically rigorous approach to developing effective cocreated participatory and inclusive methods and techniques to deal with the challenges presented to the world of research and education by the ecological crisis. The cocreation of participatory and artistic approaches to research and teaching is configured as a methodological response to ecological challenges, through a perspective that takes into account the relational aspect that emerges from the ecological dysfunctionality. The theoretical approach to IE needs to be complemented with participatory empirical research that places the relationship between subject and object of research at the center of the investigation, suggesting a *modus operandi* that reconciles and ultimately overcomes the divide between researchers and object of research.

The new conceptual and methodological framework described here is extremely demanding for the communities of participants, researchers, and learners: it requires a considerable time commitment and engages participants' involvement in defining the relational dynamics between them, around the research question they are asked to answer. In these ways, our approach creates opportunities for transformative research and education to be propagated around inclusive and collective research and education spaces.

To gain further empirical evidence to support our approach, we are extending our participatory approach to focus groups from nature-connected community members, such as the indigenous river communities of Brazil and Northern Norway [36–38]. Along this path, future research could explore how this community-based approach could support environmental justice research, where researchers and learners could become actors of change and paladins of environmental justice [39,40].

The whole process of cocreated methodological approaches to compelling legal questions on the environmental challenges contributes to an active and continuous process of knowledge shaping. Moreover, through the collective reflections of the participants, the approach contributes to the building of a new collective narrative and visualization of ecology, as a space where legal and global reflections are accompanied by the development of strong relational bonds among the parties involved in the research and education pat. The collective sharing of concerns for the natural environment, increased climate change

threats, and the inadequacy of international legal tools to overcome the fragmentation of the actors and solutions develop a sense of relational accountability, as knowledge exchange and collective search for solutions are understood to be part of a ceremony [34,41] that raises the level of consciousness of our duties to respect, honor, and care for each other and our environment.

By raising the environmental consciousness through collective research, it is possible to heal relational wounds and in this sense offer a solution to the environmental challenges, which are also and above all relational challenges, of our time. When brought into practice, the idea of a system of infinite relationships between everything and everything else becomes the collective solution to the ecological challenges of our times.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, M.P.P. and A.P.; methodology, M.P.P. and A.P.; draft preparation, M.P.P. and A.P.; writing—review and editing, M.P.P. and A.P. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** M.P.P.'s research was funded by UiT The Arctic University of Norway grant number ID—2061344 and by the funding HKDIR-Utforsk 2021-2024 (ECO\_CARE).

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Acknowledgments:** The authors would like to thank Val Napoleon and Rebecca Johnson, ILRU, Canada, for the continuous inspiration, and Valentina Russo for illustrating our project ideas.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

## **References**


## *Article* **A Study on the Sustainable Use Intention of Restaurant Companies Using the Information Attributes of SNS: The Dual Process Theory**

**Sangmook Lee <sup>1</sup> , Gumkwang Bae <sup>2</sup> and Hyojin Kim 3,\***


**Abstract:** This study was conducted to define detailed factors by combining the factors of SNS (social network services) information attributes and dual processing process theory and to investigate the relationship between customer satisfaction, brand attitude, and sustainable use intention. An empirical analysis was conducted using data collected from 361 participants who have experience in SNSs for searching for restaurant information. The major results are as follows: First, two intuitive SNS information attributes (reliability and liveliness) and two analytical attributes (usefulness and conciseness) have a significant positive influence on customer satisfaction to use an SNS. In particular, the reliability was the most significant antecedent of the SNS information attributes in this study. In addition, the current study verified the significant relationships among customer satisfaction, brand attitude, and sustainable use intention. Based on these research results, it was verified that SNS information characteristics are important attributes in eliciting customer satisfaction, attitude toward the brand, and sustainable use intention from customers. This study will contribute to providing various practical implications to establish valuable marketing strategies.

**Keywords:** dual processing theory; SNS information attribute; satisfaction; brand attitude; sustainable use intention

## **1. Introduction**

With the development of SNS, human lifestyles and consumption behaviors have also brought about great changes, and this is directly affecting the PR and marketing strategies of corporate management. Currently, most companies do not use SNSs simply to promote their products and services, but to communicate with customers and utilize customer characteristics through SNSs. In particular, these approaches can develop customer trust and increase purchase intention through customer relationship management, along with analyzing their products and services [1,2].In the food service industry, SNSs create several channels and generate revenue through service functions that connect customers and restaurant companies, and most of the consumers who have purchased or used food services through SNS information are affected by the SNS [3–5] (Cho an Shin, 2020; Chun, Lee, and Park, 2020; Kim and Lee, 2017). According to the Korea Rural Economic Research Institute (2019), online food purchases are rapidly increasing, and the online sales of fresh foods (concentrated and marine products) also increased steadily from KRW 315.7 billion in the first quarter of 2014 to KRW 518.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Currently, research related to SNS is being actively reported in previous studies related to the food service industry. Ji, Hu, and Byun (2013) [6] analyzed the influence relationships among the efficiency of promotion, user satisfaction, and impulse purchases of the SNS information characteristics of catering companies, and the study verified the positive

**Citation:** Lee, S.; Bae, G.; Kim, H. A Study on the Sustainable Use Intention of Restaurant Companies Using the Information Attributes of SNS: The Dual Process Theory. *Sustainability* **2021**, *13*, 12922. https:// doi.org/10.3390/su132212922

Academic Editors: António Raposo and Heesup Han

Received: 12 October 2021 Accepted: 17 November 2021 Published: 22 November 2021

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

relationship between SNS information characteristics and customer satisfaction. Joung and Kim (2015) [7] classified the characteristics of SNS information into playfulness, neutrality, and reliability of information and verified that the site characteristics of SNSs directly affect the intention to visit a restaurant. In addition, Kim, Hwang, and Park (2018) [8] identified the structural relationship between word-of-mouth information characteristics (consensuality, vividness, neutrality, timeliness), trust, purchase intention, and wordof-mouth intention of restaurant consumers on SNSs, and the results confirmed that when the perceived benefits of dining-out products on SNSs are high, word-of-mouth or recommending information about dining products to others was increased.

Dual processing theory is actively used in various fields from cognitive psychology to behavioral economics to consumer studies by understanding how individuals process information according to the characteristics of thought processing and the decision-making process through analysis of these processes [9]. In particular, the dual processing theory understands the consumer from the perspective of two types of human thought processing: the intuitive part and the analytical part [9,10]. Previous studies applying this dual processing theory mainly explain the decision-making process that pursues persuasion communication and information effectiveness, so it is useful to explain the information processing process through recommended online information and persuasion in the information system field. Therefore, dual-processing theory is a theoretical foundation for the better understanding of consumers because the foodservice business can make decisions based on various information provided online through SNSs and directly affect sustainable purchase intentions.

The theoretical contribution of this study lies in its examination of six elements of restaurant SNS information attributes that sustainably influence customer satisfaction, brand attributes, and intention to use services. First, the present study draws lessons from the dual processing theory model, and it focus on the information characteristics of individual SNS users. In addition, the present research considers the impact of the SNS information based on the intuitive and analytical concept of the dual processing theory, and this study applied the theory to restaurant consumers. Second, this study considered the customer satisfaction and brand attitude responding to sustainable use intention. There are enough studies related to use intention in foodservice, while there are only a few studies combining the sustainable use intention of restaurants through attributes of information on SNSs, satisfaction, and brand attitude. In addition, in previous studies, research related to SNS has been actively conducted, but most of the research has focused on the information characteristics and quality of SNSs without theoretical support. Recently, as the proportion of dining out has increased due to the influence of COVID-19, consumers' interest in dining-out information on SNSs such as Instagram, Facebook, and blogs is increasing, and it is considered to be important to prepare a differentiation strategy to build and develop a marketing strategy using a blog or SNS app. Therefore, this study proposed to define the detailed factors by combining the factors of SNS information characteristics based on the dual processing process theory and to investigate the relationships between brand attitudes, customer satisfaction, and sustainable purchase intention by using empirical analysis. It has academic originality in that it understands the sustainable behavior of restaurant consumers through SNS information attributes based on logical theory. Furthermore, this study has academic originality in that it predicts the future behavior of restaurant consumers through various SNS information provided by restaurant companies.

## **2. Literature Review**

## *2.1. Theoretical Framework*

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs and the Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corporation selected "Multi-streaming Consumption" as the key word for the restaurant trend in 2020. This trend is a major phenomenon that stimulates the emotions of dining out, and it is actively promoted through SNSs such as YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. Even in the current COVID-19 situation, in particular, the food and

dining economy reported that the restaurant market has expanded from offline (stores) to online after COVID-19. In addition, the concept of physical space is disappearing, and e-commerce, home shopping, distribution companies (convenience stores, marts), and shared kitchens are establishing themselves as new dining trends. In a situation where the flow of consumption through the Internetis changing as such, the increase in sales using online spaces such as SNSs continues, and the importance of online marketing is emerging in an age of continuous dining out.

Chaiken's (1980) [11] heuristic systematic model (HSM) is the most widely used in dual process theory. HSM explains the information processing process by dividing it into heuristic information processing and systematic information processing. In particular, the peripheral-systematic model is a suitable theory for explaining the personal information processing process through the Internet community, SNSs, etc., and is used as a theory specialized in online information technology [12]. Specifically, systematic information processing is a process similar to the central route concept asserted in the elaboration and possibility model and refers to the process in which the user analytically processes a large amount of information. On the other hand, the heuristic information processing process is considered to be similar to the peripheral route of the elaboration possibility model, and it is information processing that puts weight on the peripheral information related to itself rather than the quality of the information [13]. In other words, in the case of online information exchange, trust in the person delivering the information is required, and source credibility is an important factor in the process of peripheral information processing since it is not a face-to-face process [14]. In addition, the consumer accepts the information after judging the usefulness of the information based on the trust, and it is effective in individual decision-making and problem solving because it influences behavior by acquiring knowledge [12].

Previous studies applying the dual processing theory to SNSs are as follows. First, Hu, Ji, and Byun (2012) [15] said that the dual processing theory is the result of the continuous development of a change in attitude as a kind of information processing through a traditional attitude. Ji, Hu, and Byun (2013) [6] extended the existing research and verified the dual process theory as a theory that specialized in information reliability pursuit, persuasion communication, and online information technology. Seok (2020) [16] applies the dual process theory to consumer product purchase decision making, which occurs when a consumer purchases a product according to two ways of thinking: intuitive and analytical. The previous studies employed a dual processing theory that has focused on the psychological aspect so far, but this study expands and applies the theory to the consumer's psychology through the SNS information characteristics of the restaurant business. Hence, the current study intends to classify SNS information characteristics as detailed factors based on the heuristic and systematic viewpoint of the dual processing theory.

## *2.2. SNS Information Attributes*

SNS is an abbreviation for social network service, and an SNS has a unique characteristic in that users form a social network and disclose it to others, rather than simply providing a connection with people [17]. An SNS is an online system that forms and strengthens social relationships through free communication, information sharing, delivery, and expansion of personal connections between users [18]. Information attributes of SNSs are classified into various factors. Choi and Kim (2012) [19] found that consumers generally search online information to reduce decision-making time and make better purchase decisions, and the SNS information characteristics were divided into broadness, storability, accessibility, anonymity, transcendence of space and time, and rapid dissemination. Hong (2011) [20] classified SNS information characteristics into interactivity, accessibility, information provision, reliability, and up-to-dateness, and Kwok (2013) [21] classified the SNS characteristics of catering companies into informational, up-to-date, lively, concise, and playful for a study on the effect of SNS characteristics on technology acceptance attitudes and behavioral intentions. In addition, Bae, Yang, and Park (2018) [22] classified the information

characteristics of SNS into information provision, reliability, liveliness, and interactivity and studied consumers' attitudes toward snack products, word of mouth, and purchase intentions. Therefore, this study intends to classify SNS information characteristics that consumers can recognize through food service companies based on previous studies into consent, reliability, liveliness, up-to-dateness, usefulness, and conciseness. First, according to Kelly's (1973) [23] attribution theory, people become convinced when experiencing the same effect for the same entity, and information with such consent has a greater and stronger communication effect than information without consent. Accordingly, consent can be defined as the degree to which two or more individuals agree on the performance of a product and a plurality of information recipients agree on the performance of the product [24]. Second, reliability can be defined as information perceived by the recipient that the source will provide unbiased opinions and objective information with knowledge, skills, and experience related to the subject of communication [25]. Third, the vitality of information is easily remembered and exerts a relatively greater influence than other factors, and detailed information, personal experiences, and advice or aphorisms to others play a very effective role in the diffusion of information [26]. Fourth, up-to-dateness is the degree to which various contents used by users are generated and provided in time [27]. Fifth, usability can be defined as the usefulness and usable value, and generally refers to the degree to which the usefulness of information satisfies a need for information that users can use and obtain [28].Last, conciseness means that the content the user is looking for should be provided in an appropriate amount at the right time and place, and although it may be considered that it does not contain a sufficient amount of information, it is rather an attribute that excludes unnecessary content and facilitates intensive understanding [29].

## *2.3. Customer Satisfaction*

Satisfaction has been considered as an important variable for predicting behavioral attitudes in the marketing field, because it is possible to evaluate customer needs or expectations and predict the evaluation after use [30]. Hoffman and Bateson (1997) [31] defined satisfaction as a customer's perceived response that satisfies or exceeds customer expectations through a service provider. Satisfaction on SNSs is an important factor in the evaluation process. It refers to the emotional state that users feel when the provided product or service meets their expectations and is also defined as the degree of satisfaction experienced by using an SNS [32]. Im (2012) [33] reported that enhancing a customer relationship through customer satisfaction and customer loyalty can increase the reuse of products and services. This study found that the SNS activity of a restaurant company had a significant effect on customer value as well as customer satisfaction and behavioral intention. Jo (2017) [34] divided the SNS quality of travel companies into information quality, interface quality, and system quality and demonstrated that service quality directly affects customer satisfaction and purchase intention. In addition, Ahn and Go (2017) [35] analyzed the correlation between customer satisfaction and purchase intention in the SNS characteristics of restaurant companies and verified that the most important key factor in predicting and understanding customer behavior is SNS information along with satisfaction. Hence, previous studies confirmed that the characteristics of various information provided by SNSs and customer satisfaction can be closely linked in the restaurant business. Therefore, in this study, the variable of customer satisfaction is considered as a factor that plays a mediating role with the outcome variables such as SNS information characteristics and continuous use intention.

## *2.4. Brand Attitude*

Attitude is a consistent reaction and psychological response that appears favorably or unfavorably to an object through learning and experience, and this attitude can be determined according to the importance of major attributes of an object [36]. Fishbein (1963) [37] stated that brand attitude refers to emotions such as positive or negative and favorable or unfavorable, which are specific individual feelings toward a brand. In addition,

Keller (1993) [38] reported that a brand attitude is an individual's consistently favorable or unfavorable response to a specific brand and that it is the highest level of an abstract and powerful form of association. Similarly, Grace and O'Cass (2005) [39] identified that brand attitude is the sum of the positive or negative tendencies that appear as a result of perception and satisfaction with the experience of service brand elements in the past. In previous studies, brand attitude was set as an important outcome variable or a parameter between key factors such as customer satisfaction and loyalty. For example, Kwon (2016) [40] studied the correlation between blog immersion and such brand attitudes and intentions to visit and verified that they have a significant positive (+) influence relationship with each other. Jo (2017) [34] verified how a hotel company's SNS characteristics affect brand attitudes and purchase intentions. The study defined the brand attitude as the positive or negative attitude of consumers toward the brand and the position in which the attitude appears. Due to its characteristic of being stable and consistent, it can be said that brand attitude is an important variable for understanding and predicting consumer behavior [41–43]. In addition, Byun, Kim, and Lee (2013) [41] studied the causal relationship between brand information and consumer attitudes targeting family restaurant users. As a result of the study, it was verified that positive or negative information about the brand of a family restaurant directly affects the brand image, brand attitude, and purchase intention. Based on previous studies, therefore, the present study considered that various SNS information attributes of restaurants have a causal relationship directly or indirectly on the brand attitude.

## *2.5. Sustainable Use Intention*

The intention of continuous use online can be interpreted in more various forms than offline, and it is characterized by being very free of time and place restrictions [43]. In previous studies, continuous use intention has been defined as a concept explaining a consumer's plan to continue to use a service or product [44]. A prior study found that consumers who are satisfied about a specific service or product have driven the continuous use of branded content and reuse intention [44]. In recent years, the issue related to sustainable consumption of a branded product has been reported by only a few studies [45–47]. For instance, Hong (2018) [45] performed a study to identify the predictors of the sustainable intention to use Facebook in Korea and showed that the attitude factor has a direct influence on the behavioral intention to use an SNS. In addition, Kim and Lee (2021) [46] conducted a study to verify how motivation affects sustainable use intention for webtoon brands. More specifically, the study demonstrated that the attitude towards the webtoon brand was a critical antecedent of sustainable use intention, and the attitude was influenced by motivation factors.

Therefore, in the context of the foodservice business, understanding the concept of sustainable use intention through various elements that can influence the sustainable use intention from consumers is a major point. However, very little research has sought to examine the concept of sustainable use intention along with satisfaction and brand attitude in the context of the foodservice sector.

## *2.6. Hypothesis Development*

## 2.6.1. Relationships between SNS Information Attributes and Customer Satisfaction

Satisfaction is used as a variable to measure performance or efficiency after users actually use the system in the field of information systems [48]. The satisfaction that consumers feel after using online services such as SNSs can be a major variable to explain the influence of online services, and the properties of information systems can be used as important measurement variables to evaluate satisfaction. Ahn and Ko (2017) [35] classified the characteristics of SNS into interactivity, information availability, and convenience of access and verified the significant relationships among the SNS characteristics of catering companies, customer satisfaction, and purchase intention. In addition, Sung, Ko, and Kim (2012) [49] demonstrated that that users' satisfaction with SNS information had a positive effect on their continued use intention and recommendation intention in retrieving dining-out information. Therefore, this study divided SNS information characteristics into intuitive elements (synonymy, reliability, and liveliness) and analytical elements (up-todateness, usefulness, and conciseness) based on the dual-processing process theory and assumed that the characteristics of SNS information would have a positive effect on user satisfaction in terms of the following hypotheses.

**Hypothesis 1a (H1a).** *SNS information attributes will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

**Hypothesis 1b (H1b).** *Consent will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

**Hypothesis 1c (H1c).** *Reliability will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

**Hypothesis 1d (H1d).** *Liveliness will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

**Hypothesis 1e (H1e).** *Up-to-dateness will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

**Hypothesis 1f (H1f).** *Usefulness will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

**Hypothesis 1g (H1g).** *Conciseness will have a positive effect on customer satisfaction*.

2.6.2. Relationships between Customer Satisfaction, Brand Attitude, and Sustainable Use Intention

Brand attitude is a stable and continuous characteristic for predicting and understanding consumer behavior such as choosing a brand or motivating purchase behavior. Previous studies verified that customer satisfaction can directly influence brand attitude as well as purchase intention. For example, Byun, Kim, and Lee (2013) [41] verified the significant relationship between information factors and brand attitude from family restaurant consumers. Taylor and Hunter (2014) [50] identified the direct relationship between e-satisfaction and loyalty from consumers, and the e-satisfaction loyalty relationship appears to be mediated by brand attitudes in this study. In addition, Hwang, Choe, Kim, and Kim (2021) [51] investigated the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction as perceived by customers who used a coffee shop operated by robot baristas and customers who used a coffee shop operated by human baristas. The study demonstrated that consumer satisfaction has a significant impact on bran attitude as well as loyalty.As such, studies on the relationship between customer satisfaction and brand attitude by applying SNSs were insufficient, but several previous studies assumed that customer satisfaction could have a direct effect on brand attitude. Therefore, the current study established the following hypothesis.

**Hypothesis 2 (H2).** *Customer satisfaction will have a positive effect on brand attitude*.

In previous studies, a significant causal relationship between customer satisfaction and continuous use intention was verified in various fields. For example, Hossain and Kim (2018) [44] verified the relationship between satisfaction and sustainable use intention as perceived by Facebook users. Therefore, the present study established the following hypothesis. In addition, previous studies confirmed the important about the SNS factor as a predictor of behavioral intention [52,53]. For example, Suh, Won, and Hong (2010) [52] empirically investigated the effects of six SNS website quality factors (interface quality, system quality, information quality, service quality, emotion quality, and authoring environment quality) on user satisfaction and the intention of continuous use as well as word-of-mouth. Their study found that the system quality, emotion quality, and authoring environment quality were critical antecedents of customer satisfaction, and the customer satisfaction influenced the intention of continuous use as well as word-of-mouth.

**Hypothesis 3 (H3).** *Customer satisfaction will have a positive effect on sustainable use intention.*

Prior studies have verified the significant relationships between brand attitude and loyalty or behavioral intention in various sectors. For example, Kim and Lee (2021) [46] identified that the attitude towards a webtoon brand can directly influence sustainable use intention. Similarly, Hossain and Kim (2018) [44] found that consumers who are satisfied with Facebook's website have sustainable use intention about the site. In addition, Hwang, Choe, Kim, and Kim (2021) [51] verified that brand attitude has a significant influence on brand loyalty from coffee shop visitors. Therefore, this study developed the following hypothesis based on the previous research.

## **Hypothesis 4 (H4).** *Brand attitude will have a positive effect on sustainable use intention.*

Based on above hypotheses we suggested the following research model on Figure 1.

**Figure 1.** Research frame.

## **3. Methodology**

## *3.1. Measurement of Variables and Survey Method*

In order to conduct this study, a preliminary survey was conducted with50 customers who used a restaurant service through an SNS in 2020. Reliability verification and validity verification of the questionnaire items were performed through a preliminary survey, and the items with low reliability were corrected and supplemented with relevant professors and graduate students to create the final questionnaire. After modifications from the pilot test, the developed survey was conducted in February 2021 through the online survey method. The online survey was conducted for consumers who searched for and used SNSbased dining-out information, and it was commissioned by a consumer panel survey expert company (MicromillEmbrain). A self-administrated questionnaire was designed, and the questionnaire comprised three sections. The first part included six constructs related to SNS information attributes: synonymy, conciseness, up-to-dateness, reliability, usefulness, and liveness. The second part included customer satisfaction, brand attitude, and sustainable use intention. All questions from the sections included three to four items using a 7-point Likert-type scale (1: strongly disagree to 7: strongly agree) for the following: "Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statement". The final section of the questionnaire included participants' personal information, such as age, gender, education

level, frequency of visiting the SNS for choosing a restaurant, and so on. To measure the attributes of SNS information on restaurant businesses, our study adopted 20 items from Bae et al. (2018) [22] and Lim (2019) [54]. The four items for customer satisfaction were based on earlier research by Ahn and Go (2017) [35], Hellier, et al (2003) [55], Oliver (1980) [56] and Kim et al (2009) [57]. Brand attitude was measured using four items that were modified from Fishbein (1963) [37]. In addition, the sustainable use intention was measured using four items that were identified by Hossainand Kim (2018) [44]. The final section of the questionnaire included respondents' relevant personal information, such as age, gender, household income, and dining motivation.

## *3.2. Data Collection and Statistical Analyses*

Distribution of the questionnaire encompassed 500 restaurant customers who were using SNSs for searching for a restaurant. From these samples, 450consumers participated in the survey (90% response rate). There were 35 questionnaires with missing values, and 29 disqualifications were due to the last visit on any SNS site for finding information about a restaurant being more than one month earlier. In addition, multivariate and univariate outliers found 33 outliers, which were also excluded. After all checks for sample validity, 361 responses from participants remained for hypotheses testing. Statistical analysis used SPSS25.0 and AMOS 23.0 programs. Specifically, this study performed the data analysis method by Anderson and Gerbing (1988) [58]. First, a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) tested whether or not the observed variables reflected the hypothesized latent constructs using a covariance matrix, and composite reliability confirmed the measurement reliability. Second, validity tests (convergent and discriminate) were conducted using factor loading and average variance extracted (AVE). After verifying the measurement model, structural equation modeling (SEM) examined the overall fit of the proposed model along with assessing the hypotheses.

## **4. Results**

## *4.1. Demographic Chatacteristics*

Table 1 shows the participants' characteristics. Among the 361 valid questionnaires, 165 were male (45.7%) and 196 were female (54.3%). The occupations of respondents were office worker (34.1%), student (33.0%), professional worker (10.5%), personal business (10.2%), government officer (7.5%), and others (4.7%). The result of the age group shows that 20~29 was the highest (32.4%), followed by 40~49(24.1%), 30–39(22.7%), and over 50(20.8%). The results of education level found that university and graduate school graduates accounted for more than 70% of the respondents. Last, the results of the frequency of SNS use for dining out indicated that 3~4 times per week was the highest (47.1%), followed by everyday (17.2%), 5~6 times per week (16.1%), and 1~2 times per week (13.0%).

**Table 1.** Results of respondent characteristics.



**Table 1.** *Cont.*

## *4.2. Reliability Verification of Variables*

In this study, the attributes of SNS information characteristics were measured with a total of six variables (synonymy, conciseness, up-to-dateness, reliability, usefulness, liveness) based on previous studies. The measurement items for each factor consisted of a total of 20 items: three items of synonymy, conciseness, reliability, and liveliness, and four items of up-to-dateness and usefulness. Customer satisfaction consisted of three items, and brand attitude and sustainable use of intention consisted of four items each. Using Cronbach's alpha value, it was verified whether the measurement factors consisted of homogeneous variables. According to previous studies, a Cronbach's alpha value of 0.6 or higher for exploratory research and of 0.7 or higher for confirmatory research is considered appropriate. All of Cronbach's alpha values for six variables related to SNS information attributes exceeded the standard value of 0.6 (synonymy: 0.799; conciseness: 0.860; upto-dateness: 0.875; reliability: 0.860; usefulness: 0.907; liveness: 0.875), so the reliability of information characteristic factors could be verified. In addition, the Cronbach's alpha value of customer satisfaction was 0.860, brand attitude was 0.898, and sustainable use of intention was 0.942. Therefore, the reliability of all variables was verified (Table 2).


**Table 2.** Results of demographic characteristic.


## **Table 2.** *Cont.*

## *4.3. Confirmatory Factor Analysis*

In this study, structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to more specifically verify the causal relationship and direction between measurement variables. Structural equations can be analyzed in consideration of measurement errors of independent and dependent variables, and parameters can be measured at the same time as setting a system of equations, so more complex and step-by-step theoretical structural analysis can be effectively performed [59,60]. In this study, the overall fit of the model was measured and verified using both the absolute fit index and the incremental fit index [60,61]. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis for the validation of the validity and fit of the measurement variables and the validation of the relationship between the constructs were presented in more detail. First, the *x* <sup>2</sup> value was 815.448, the degree of freedom (df) was 394, the CMIN/DF was 2.07(*p* = 0.000), the GFI was 0.877, the AGFI was 0.845, the RMR value was 0.046, and the RMSEA value was 0.055. Based on these results, this study verified that the degree of absolute fit was acceptable [60,62]. Next, the NFI value was 0.916, the IFI value was 0.955, the TLI value was 0.946, and the CFI value

was 0.954 to verify the intermediate fit [60,62]. Checking factor loading and average variance extracted assessed convergent validity in this study. Composite reliability for all elements was calculated for assessing the instrument's reliability. As shown in Table 3, all constructs represented desirable levels of CR (composite reliability), ranging from 0.800 to 0.937, so the current study satisfies convergent validity [61]. In addition, AVE values of all measurement factors exceeded the reference values of 0.7 and 0.5, except for five relationships (up-to-dateness and usefulness, up-to-dateness and brand attitude, satisfaction and brand attitude, satisfaction and sustainable use intention, brand attitude and sustainable use intention) [60,61]. To identify the discriminant validity, therefore, the variables combined and compared the constrained model and unconstrained model using the *x* <sup>2</sup> differences. The results show thatall paired comparisons of the constructs have significant *x* <sup>2</sup> differences between the measurement model and alternative model (up-to-dateness and usefulness: ∆χ <sup>2</sup> = 126.316, ∆*df* = 8; up-to-dateness and brand attitude: ∆χ <sup>2</sup> = 133.291, ∆*df* = 8; satisfaction and brand attitude: ∆χ <sup>2</sup> = 69.922, ∆*df* = 8; brand attitude and sustainable use intention:∆χ <sup>2</sup> = 221.255, ∆*df* = 8).Therefore, the discriminant validity of the designed research model was also verified [60,62] (see Tables 3 and 4).

**Table 3.** Confirmatory factor analysis for the measurement model.



**Table 3.** *Cont.*

**Table 4.** Comparison of AVE and squared correlations of paired constructs.


Note. AVE is on the diagonal. Squared correlations of paired constructs are on the off-diagonal.

## *4.4. Result of Structural Equation Model*

Measuring the fit of the designed model was confirmed before the validation of the causal relationship for hypothesis testing. Results show that the *x* <sup>2</sup> was 863.618, the degree of freedom (df) was 405, *p* = 0.000, and the GFI was 0.871. The AGFI was 0.842, the sRMR value was 0.035, and the RMSEA value was 0.056, confirming the absolute fit of the measurement factors. In addition, the NFI value was 0.911, the IFI value was 0.951, the TLI value was 0.943, and the CFI value was 0.951, so the intermediate fit of the research model for hypothesis testing was also verified. All but two of the path coefficients in the model were positive and significant. Therefore, empirical support accrues to all the hypotheses

except for Hypotheses 1-1 and 1-4, which referred to the path from synonymy to customer satisfaction and up-to-dateness to customer satisfaction. In other words, four elements of SNS information attributes (conciseness, reliability, usefulness, and liveliness) have significantly influenced customer satisfaction. Furthermore, the relationships between customer satisfaction, brand attribute, and sustainable use intention were statistically significant. The more specific hypothesis test results are as follows. The results confirm the proposed effects of intuitive SNS information attributes on customer satisfaction, reliability (Hypothesis 1–2: β = 0.28; *t* = 5.098 \*\*\*), and liveliness (Hypothesis 1–3: β = 0.12; *t* = 2.146 \*). In addition, usefulness (Hypothesis 1–5: β = 0.26; *t* = 3.534 \*\*\*) and conciseness (Hypothesis 1–6: β = 0.22; *t* = 4.149 \*\*\*) among the analytical attributes of SNS information positively influenced customer satisfaction. Among all the predictors of SNS information attributes, reliability (*t* = 5.098 \*\*\*) has the strongest effect on customer satisfaction followed by conciseness (*t* = 4.149 \*\*\*), usefulness (*t* = 3.534 \*\*\*), and liveliness (*t* = 2.146 \*). In addition, customer satisfaction was a very critical antecedent of the brand attitude (Hypothesis 2: β = 0.95; *t* = 17.578 \*\*\*), and the customer satisfaction (Hypothesis 3: β = 0.26; *t* = 2.201 \*) and brand attribute (Hypothesis 4: β = 0.77; *t* = 6.528 \*\*\*) have a direct effect on sustainable use intention. Overall, the study produces significant support for the notion that SNS information attributes of foodservice businesses, as perceived by customers during their consumption experience in a restaurant after finding information about food, positively affects their perceptions of satisfaction and, in turn, has a positive effect on the brand attitude and sustainable use intention with regard to that restaurant (see Table 5, Figure 2).

**Table 5.** Results of structural parameter estimates.


Note. \* *p* < 0.05; \*\*\* *p* < 0.001.

**Figure 2.** Result of hypothesis test.

## **5. Conclusions and Limitations**

## *5.1. Conclusions*

This study was conducted to verify the influence relationship between SNS information attributes perceived by restaurant SNS users, customer satisfaction, brand attitude, and sustainable use intention. Through this hypothesis test, we intend to present various practical marketing implications not only for academia but also for the food service industry, which is facing many difficulties due to the COVID-19 crisis. More specific academic and practical implications are as follows.

First, this study applied the attribute of SNS information characteristics to the dual processing theory that verified the causal relationship between satisfaction, brand attitude, and sustainable use intention through the SNS information perceived by restaurant visitors. In particular, previous studies that used dual processing theory mainly applied the concept to identify the effectiveness of SNS information in the engineering field [9,12] or in studies on psychological aspects to understand the psychology of consumers [16]. Therefore, this study identifies the important elements of SNS information attributes as an important marketing promotion strategy by considering various intuitive (consent, reliability, liveliness) attributes and analytical (up-to-dateness, usefulness, conciseness) attributes that consumers can recognize through SNSs in the restaurant.

Second, this study verified the influence relationship between SNS information characteristics and customer satisfaction, and it was verified that reliability, liveliness, usefulness, and conciseness, among the six attributes, had a direct effect on customer satisfaction. According to the results of previous studies that employed the SNS information attributes as a major variable, it was confirmed once again that the influence relationship between perceived SNS information characteristics and customer satisfaction may depend on the research subject or research field.

Third, the present study found that reliability is the most significant factor that can influence customer satisfaction among restaurant SNS information attributes. In addition, conciseness, usefulness, and liveliness also had a directly positive (+) effect on customer satisfaction. Therefore, foodservice companies or restaurants should deliver concise infor-

mation, including meaningful information that is provided on SNSs, and provide reliable information based on their expertise in the provided information. In addition, the information provider needs to provide well-organized and accurate information, including store name, location, menu, and price, to improve the usefulness of SNS information. For example, restaurant-related companies are promoting information on their SNS accounts based on consumers' visiting experiences by using experience groups on Instagram or blogs.

Fourth, it was verified that conciseness and usefulness among the analytical attributes of SNS information characteristics had a significant effect on customer satisfaction. Therefore, in order to increase customer satisfaction and further increase positive sustainable use intention, the concise and essential content-oriented information provided will have a positive effect on the consumers who view the information. Therefore, food service companies should accurately deliver the store name, location, menu, and price to searchbased services.

Last, this study verified that consumers who were satisfied with the information provided by SNSs also increased their positive attitude toward the brand and sustainable use intention. This result re-verified that there is a significant causal relationship between satisfaction, attitude, and continuous use intention, and this can be applied to the food service industry from previous studies [44,45,51,52].

Recently, the proportion of dining out has increased due to the influence of COVID-19 [63,64], and consumers' interest in dining-out information on SNSs such as Instagram, Facebook, and blogs has also increased. Therefore, this study is considered to prepare a differentiated strategy to improve and develop a marketing strategy using the SNS information attributes by considering other critical elements such as satisfaction, brand attitude, and sustainable use intention. These findings are expected to help establish marketing strategies for restaurant business and develop academic grounds.

## *5.2. Limitations*

This research conducted a meaningful study based on the information characteristics of SNSs (Instagram, Facebook, etc.) that, recently, consumers mainly visit to find information on dining out, but the following limitations were not overcome. First, the residence of the survey respondents was not investigated in this study, and data were collected in South Korea only. Therefore, the SNS information can be different based on the size of the city, country, or area of residence. Therefore, it is difficult to generalize the research results. Thus, it is necessary to overcome the limitations of the study subject by considering or comparing various areas.

Second, this study was conducted only focusing on a general SNS setting, such as Instagram, Facebook users, and blog users, among various dining-related SNS websites. However, this study did not distinguish the type of SNS setting, and the results can be different based on the SNS setting. In future research, therefore, a broader investigation of more diverse SNS websites is needed to overcome these limitations.

Third, this study requested a single response rather than multiple responses, for the main purpose of using SNSs to search for information on dining out. This was a single inquiry to check which reason is the most important in searching for dining-out information through SNSs. Therefore, it will be meaningful to inquire with multiple responses in future studies.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, S.L.; methodology, H.K.; software, G.B.; validation, G.B.; formal analysis, S.L.; investigation and resources, H.K.; data curation, G.B.; writing—original draft preparation, S.L.; writing—review and editing, G.B.; visualization, H.K.; supervision, S.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

## **References**


## *Article* **Exploring Consumers' Attitudes towards Food Products Derived by New Plant Breeding Techniques**

**Gabriella Vindigni, Iuri Peri , Federica Consentino, Roberta Selvaggi and Daniela Spina \***

Department of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Catania, Via Santa Sofia 100, 95123 Catania, Italy; vindigni@unict.it (G.V.); peri@unict.it (I.P.); federica.consentino@outlook.it (F.C.); roberta.selvaggi@unict.it (R.S.)

**\*** Correspondence: daniela.spina@unict.it

**Abstract:** New plant breeding techniques (NPBTs) are seen as promising and innovative tools to achieve food security and food safety. Biotechnological innovations have great potential to address sustainable food development, and they are expected in the near future to play a critical role in feeding a growing population without exerting added pressure on the environment. There is, however, a considerable debate as to how these new techniques should be regulated and whether some or all of them should fall within the scope of EU legislation on genetically modified organisms (GMOs), despite the product obtained being free from genes foreign to the species. In the EU, the adoption of these methods does not rely only on the scientific community but requires social acceptance and a political process that leads to an improved regulatory framework. In this paper, we present the results of an online survey carried out in Italy with 700 randomly selected participants on consumer attitudes towards food obtained by NPBTs. By applying the decision tree machine learning algorithm J48 to our dataset, we identified significant attributes to predict the main drivers of purchasing such products. A classification model accuracy assessment has also been developed to evaluate the overall performance of the classifier. The result of the model highlighted the role of consumers' self-perceived knowledge and their trust in the European approval process for NPBT, as well as the need for a detailed label. Our findings may support decision makers and underpin the development of NPBT products in the market.

**Keywords:** agricultural biotechnology; new plant breeding technique; NPBT; consumers' attitude; food safety; machine learning; data mining

## **1. Introduction**

The selection of more efficient and productive varieties is a practice that began with the birth of agriculture itself when farmers chose the best plants from the wild for domestication [1]. For a long time, conventional breeding techniques have been the only methods to improve cultivated plants [2], requiring many generations to achieve the intended results [3]. In the past, the need to increase yields and obtain quality products has usually been addressed with the use of inputs such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation water, in some cases raising environmental concerns [4].

Scientific advances in molecular biology over the past 50 years have contributed to significant progress in plant breeding and the establishment of genetics as a science [5] with a great potential to increase the resilience of food systems and guarantee food security and food safety. Genetic improvement may provide tools able to stabilize yields, increase resistance to biotic or abiotic stresses, increase drought tolerance, reduce adverse effects of climate change, improve nutritional quality, increase shelf life and reduce allergenicity [6]. Despite these advantages, gene editing may cause unintentional implications and genetic errors, and the effect on human health and the environment has still to be proven.

The recombinant DNA technique has been the most innovative method introduced thus far. It has made it possible to insert genes into organisms to encode desirable traits [7],

**Citation:** Vindigni, G.; Peri, I.; Consentino, F.; Selvaggi, R.; Spina, D. Exploring Consumers' Attitudes towards Food Products Derived by New Plant Breeding Techniques. *Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, 5995. https:// doi.org/10.3390/su14105995

Academic Editors: Heesup Han and António Raposo

Received: 25 January 2022 Accepted: 13 May 2022 Published: 15 May 2022

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

reducing the time required to achieve varieties with improved agronomic and nutritional characteristics [8]. These kinds of organisms have been designated genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and are often considered transgenic cultures because of the introduction of foreign genes [9].

The new genome editing methodologies fall into a broader category of techniques defined as new plant breeding techniques or NPBTs, which have aroused great interest in the scientific community [10–14]. They have been developed to improve the accuracy and speed of breeding [15,16] and to modify existing genes rather than adding genes from other species [17], a technique used in many GMO technologies. According to some experts, this makes it difficult to determine the difference between varieties obtained from NPBT and varieties obtained from conventional breeding since identical point mutations could also occur naturally [18]. The main applications of NPBT are cisgenesis and intragenesis, direct mutagenesis by oligonucleotides, independent DNA and RNA methylation, reverse varietal selection, and agroinfiltration [19].

Notwithstanding the positive opinion of many experts in the field of molecular biology and the interest shown by stakeholders, many policymakers and lobby groups are unconvinced. The differing opinions on safety and related regulatory policies have led to substantial controversy.

Today, European legislation appears to be stringent, generating a debate regarding Directive 2001/18 EC, which categorizes NPBT products as GMOs and, therefore, are subject to a risk assessment to obtain EU authorization [12]. This discourages breeders and biotech companies, which instead pursue possibilities in other countries where plant breeding regulations are less rigorous.

The agricultural biotech industry and connected groups encourage the use of new genetic modification techniques, claiming that they are precise, safe, and controlled and provide us the tools to meet the challenges of environmental overexploitation and climate change.

However, these claims are used to assert that these techniques should be exempted from the EU's GMO regulations and not subject to safety and traceability rules or GMO labeling since they are essentially traditionally bred varieties. On the other side, environmental groups, food retailers, small farmers, and the organic industry criticize this position, insisting that these techniques are fundamentally different from natural processes and that there may be unintentional negative effects. The issue has, therefore, wide implications for investments in plant breeding and trade in agricultural products [20].

In light of this debate, this research aimed to explore consumers' opinions and attitudes toward food derived from NPBTs. It reports the results of a survey conducted in Italy in which respondents had the possibility to express their potential intentions to purchase products derived from NPBTs. To this purpose, we have applied a data mining methodology to discover the relation among attributes, applying a classification algorithm (J48) to predict consumers' behavior.

## **2. EU Regulation of NPBTs and the Ongoing Debate**

The varieties obtained from NPBTs are regulated as GMOs, according to Directive 2001/18 EC [12]. Article 2 defines GMOs as "an organism, except humans, in which the genetic material has been altered in a way that does not occur naturally by mating and/or natural recombination". The Directive aims to protect human health and the environment [12]. The Directive does not apply directly to approvals for the import and processing of genetically modified food and feed, which are governed by Regulation 1829/2003 (EC 2003a) and are defined as "containing, consisting of or produced from GMOs" [21]. It is worth noting that all food and feed covered by Regulation 1829/2003 are also subject to labeling and traceability requirements (EC 2003b) [22].

European Union decides whether to authorize the release of new varieties based on the scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which assesses plant varieties resulting from genetic techniques based on compositional analysis, molecular characteristics, mode of action of the protein expressed by the newly introduced gene, changes in metabolic pathways, and environmental exposure [23]. The process of obtaining the authorization demands high costs and long waiting times for breeders who instead find more possibilities for growth in other countries. In the European Union, approval of a GM crop costs between 11 and 17 million euros and takes, on average, 6 years [24].

On 25 July 2018, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), upon the request of the French Council of State, has further confirmed that organisms obtained by mutagenesis are GMOs, therefore subject to the requirements of the EU GMO legislation and the obligations of EU-wide authorization processes, traceability, and labeling rules [25,26]. This judgment discouraged European breeders, scientists, and stakeholders, stirring up debate on how the new techniques should be regulated. The focal point is whether the regulation of NPBTs should be product-based or process-based [2].

There are two main points of view: The first is that of advocates for unregulated use and approval of these techniques, which call for an evidence-based approach to proving an organism's harm to human health and the environment [27]. On the opposite side are proponents of a regulatory approach, favoring a comprehensive risk evaluation of GMOs. Advocates of this point of view believe that in the absence of scientific data regarding the probability that an organism will cause harm, products should be removed from the market until they are proven safe [28].

On 29 April 2021, the European Commission published a new study on NPBTs based on the opinions of EFSA and main stakeholders in the member countries of the EU. The study reaffirmed that organisms obtained through NPBTs are considered GMOs, but it also expressed concerns about the current legislation, whose lack of definitions or clarity on the meanings of the key terms causes ambiguity. As NPBTs constitute a heterogeneous group of techniques, EFSA has identified some techniques that have no new hazards compared to conventional techniques [13].

The report stressed the need to develop specific risk assessment procedures for NPBTs. Moreover, the study highlighted the possibility that the EU could encounter problems in international trade relations with countries that approve and use the new genetic engineering techniques. It is extremely complex to distinguish varieties of genetic techniques derived from natural or induced mutants, with consequent implications on world trade, such as a substantial decrease in the number of raw materials imported from third countries, on which the European Union and Italy, in particular, rely.

Therefore, in light of the different regulatory frameworks for NPBTs in other countries, such as the United States and Brazil, which do not specifically regulate genome edited crops, the EU could run into commercial limitations and confusion and thus put European stakeholders at a competitive disadvantage [29]. As a consequence, plant breeding companies have stronger motivations to relocate their research to other countries.

The GMO regulatory process is seen as time consuming and very costly, especially for small–medium enterprises (SMEs) that may lack the know-how and the financial power to face this challenge [30].

Furthermore, EFSA confirms that many of the plant products obtained from NPBTs have the potential to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals through the EU's Green Deal goals and "Farm to Fork" strategy. The study highlights "the need to make legislation more resilient, future-proof and uniformly applied". The current European regulatory system on NPBTs still remains unclear in its scope and implementation, ill-suited to the advances of the scientific community regarding rapid developments in genetics and genome editing, and poorly harmonized with equivalent systems.

During the development of the study, the issue of consumer perspective remains the key point to consider, as they remain the most important players in influencing the trajectories of agricultural biotechnology innovation.

## **3. Research Design and Data Analysis**

## *3.1. Data Collection*

An online survey was carried out in Italy from March 2021 to June 2021 and disseminated via social media channels. A snowball sampling technique was used to gather responses to our survey [31]. It was adopted to generate a pool of participants for our study through referrals made by individuals to recruit people who have heard of genetic improvement techniques, although they were not well informed. The final sample size was made up of 700 respondents.

The study was grounded in literature concerning consumers' attitudes towards food purchasing habits with the aim to further validate previous research and address the research questions. The questionnaire included only closed questions. It consisted of three parts: the first part focused on the socio-demographic profile of the respondents; the second part explored consumers' food purchasing behavior; the third part addressed the respondents' acceptance and intention to purchase products derived from new breeding techniques. The surveys provided fundamental information, starting with the definition of new plant breeding techniques. The difference between NPBTs and GMOs was highlighted since, in common perception, the two terms often overlap. Participants were also informed that to date, the cultivation of plants and the marketing of products derived from NPBTs is not allowed in Italy, as well as in most European countries, and as such, the products fall under the regulation of GMOs.

## *3.2. Socio-demographic Characteristics of the Respondents*

The socio-demographic profile of the participants is presented in Table 1. Most of the respondents were women (65%), with 39% of all respondents aged under 25, 38% between 26 and 49, and 23% over 50. The respondents' average level of education is high: most have a high school degree (42.6%) or a university degree (43%). The respondents' level of income corresponds to the average distribution of the Italian population: 46.1% have an income between 20,000 € and 50,000 € and 42.3% less than 20,000 €. Considering the country in terms of Northern, Central, and Southern Italy, as conventionally used in official Italian statistics, most of the responses were from southern Italy (77.6%) and a smaller percentage from northern Italy (17%) and central Italy (5.4%).


**Table 1.** Demographic distribution of survey participants (number and percentage of responses).


**Table 1.** *Cont.*

## *3.3. Consumers' Food Purchasing Behaviour* We adopted a 5‐point Likert scale (1 = Strongly Disagree, 2 = Disagree, 3 = Uncertain,

*3.3. Consumers' Food Purchasing Behaviour*

We adopted a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly Disagree, 2 = Disagree, 3 = Uncertain, 4 = Agree, 5 = Strongly Agree) to analyze consumers' food purchasing behavior and to measure the intensity of respondents' opinions [32], thereby collecting more detailed information than a dichotomous survey [33]. We proposed some topics of interest to respondent consumers to evaluate to what extent these issues guide consumers' purchasing choices. 4 = Agree, 5 = Strongly Agree) to analyze consumers' food purchasing behavior and to measure the intensity of respondents' opinions [32], thereby collecting more detailed in‐ formation than a dichotomous survey [33]. We proposed some topics of interest to re‐ spondent consumers to evaluate to what extent these issues guide consumers' purchasing choices.

The software Tableau was used to create a graph of the survey results. Tableau provides multiple tools such as analytics, data mining, data visualization, and data infrastructure, allowing the user to visualize a large amount of information [34]. The software Tableau was used to create a graph of the survey results. Tableau pro‐ vides multiple tools such as analytics, data mining, data visualization, and data infrastruc‐ ture, allowing the user to visualize a large amount of information [34].

From Figure 1, it is possible to observe the aspects which drive consumer purchasing choices. From Figure 1, it is possible to observe the aspects which drive consumer purchasing choices.

**Figure 1.** Survey results on factors driving consumers' choice of food. Source: our elaboration with Tableau Software. **Figure 1.** Survey results on factors driving consumers' choice of food. Source: our elaboration with Tableau Software.

The most important aspect for respondents is health qualities of the product (53.6%). Moreover, consumers pay attention to environmental issues. Hence they may be likely to purchase "green" products (44.1%). The most important aspect for respondents is health qualities of the product (53.6%). Moreover, consumers pay attention to environmental issues. Hence they may be likely to purchase "green" products (44.1%).

The consideration of the process used to obtain the product is more diversified among the respondents. The highest percentage (32.6%) consider this aspect very im‐ portant or somewhat important (26%), but a relatively high percentage is indifferent to the topic (24.5%). The consideration of the process used to obtain the product is more diversified among the respondents. The highest percentage (32.6%) consider this aspect very important or somewhat important (26%), but a relatively high percentage is indifferent to the topic (24.5%).

The importance of the product label is also, in this case, diverse: the respondents seem split between those who pay a lot of attention to the label (29.8%) and those who do not pay particular attention to its content (24%). The importance of the product label is also, in this case, diverse: the respondents seem split between those who pay a lot of attention to the label (29.8%) and those who do not pay particular attention to its content (24%).

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the application of artificial intel‐ ligence (AI) tools for the identification of regularity phenomena in a set of complex data. Data extraction using specific AI algorithms allow the user to obtain higher levels of in‐

of others. This process is known as data mining, which is only one of the phases of a larger

Data mining techniques are mainly used to build predictive models for determining the future behavior of some relevant attributes. Classification, one of the major aims of

*3.4. Prediction of Acceptance and Intention to buy NPBTs: A Decision Tree Classification* 

interactive process called knowledge discovery in database (Kdd).

## *3.4. Prediction of Acceptance and Intention to buy NPBTs: A Decision Tree Classification*

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) tools for the identification of regularity phenomena in a set of complex data. Data extraction using specific AI algorithms allow the user to obtain higher levels of information synthesis and to study the possible cause-effect relationships among the available data [35,36]. This highlights the strategic role of some information and the irrelevance of others. This process is known as data mining, which is only one of the phases of a larger interactive process called knowledge discovery in database (Kdd).

Data mining techniques are mainly used to build predictive models for determining the future behavior of some relevant attributes. Classification, one of the major aims of data mining, is used to discover the relationship between the class attribute and other attributes. This knowledge can be utilized to predict the class label, which is not known in advance. The decision tree, a supervised machine learning algorithm, is a multidimensional classification method that is widely adopted for classification purposes [37]. This method predicts class membership by recursively splitting the dataset into smaller subsets for each branch [38] based on the "divide and conquer strategy" often applied in data analysis [39]. This process is then repeated at each node on the branch until a leaf node is reached. The output is a hierarchical decision tree structure where instances are ordered down the tree from the root node to a leaf node, which provides the classification of the instances. Basically, a decision tree defines a set of paths from the root node to the leaf nodes by running a series of tests. Based on information theory approach, the algorithm employs entropy in relation to the information contained in a probability distribution. The goal is to select the attribute that is most useful for classifying instances according to the so-called information gain, a measure that reveals how much information a feature provides about a class. Information gain helps to determine the order of attributes in the nodes of a decision tree [40].

In our study, we adopted decision tree J48, one of the best machine learning algorithms for classification of data [41]. It is an improved version of C4.5 algorithms developed by Quinlan and implemented in Weka, an open-source machine learning software. Weka contains a collection of visualization tools and algorithms for data analysis and predictive modeling, together with graphical user interfaces for easy access to these functions. The software supports several standard data mining tasks, more specifically, data preprocessing, clustering, classification, regression, visualization, and feature selection. In this research, the J48 decision tree has proved to be a suitable method to explore consumers' attitudes towards NPBT products since it is an exploratory analysis process in which we gather to predict a future outcome. Decision tree is a data mining technique for solving classification and prediction problems. Data mining consists of different methods and algorithms used for discovering knowledge from large datasets.

For this purpose, the classification attribute considered was intention to purchase.

Based on literature analysis [42–46], we have identified a set of attributes that have been included in the database: conditions of purchasing, concerns, barriers, degree of self-perceived knowledge, detailed label, and trust in EU food safety. All the information included in the model is shown in Table 2. For each attribute, the respective items, response count, and response percentage are shown.

Based on our set of attributes, a decision tree was induced to predict the relationship of each attribute to consumers' intention to purchase. Table 3 shows the main branches of the tree for predicting consumers' attitudes toward NPBT products. The table reports the decision rules that can be read as a simple IF-THEN statement, consisting of a condition and a prediction. For example: IF the knowledge is high AND the products are perceived as environmentally friendly (condition), THEN the consumer is willing to buy it (prediction).


## **Table 2.** Model information.

**Table 3.** J48 Decision tree model for consumers' attitude towards NPBT products.


**Table 3.** *Cont.*


Data visualization (Figure 2) provides clear information efficiently and in an understandable way.

Detailed label = Not important: No (2.0/0.0)

**Figure 2.** J48 Graphical representation of decision tree model.

**Figure 2.** J48 Graphical representation of decision tree model. Weka software applies the conventional 10‐fold cross‐validation to estimate the skill of a machine learning model to uncover hidden patterns. Often the procedure has a single parameter k that refers to the number of groups into which a provided data sample is to be split. Therefore, it is called k‐fold cross‐validation. In our case study, we have chosen a specific value for k, i.e., k = 10, becoming 10‐fold cross‐validation. Cross‐validation is a resampling procedure used to evaluate machine learning models on a limited data sam‐ ple. During this process, the software trains and evaluates 10 subsets to estimate how use‐ ful the learned model is for prediction. In Table 3 and in Figure 2, the statistic in brackets summarizes the performance of the classification. The first value is the total number of instances in each leaf. The second value shows the number of instances incorrectly classi‐ fied in that leaf. When a value of the attribute in a tree is not known, the system splits the case and sends a fraction down each branch. The three important attributes according to Weka software applies the conventional 10-fold cross-validation to estimate the skill of a machine learning model to uncover hidden patterns. Often the procedure has a single parameter k that refers to the number of groups into which a provided data sample is to be split. Therefore, it is called k-fold cross-validation. In our case study, we have chosen a specific value for k, i.e., k = 10, becoming 10-fold cross-validation. Cross-validation is a resampling procedure used to evaluate machine learning models on a limited data sample. During this process, the software trains and evaluates 10 subsets to estimate how useful the learned model is for prediction. In Table 3 and in Figure 2, the statistic in brackets summarizes the performance of the classification. The first value is the total number of instances in each leaf. The second value shows the number of instances incorrectly classified in that leaf. When a value of the attribute in a tree is not known, the system splits the case and sends a fraction down each branch. The three important attributes according to the model are: level of self-perceived knowledge, factors affecting purchasing, and detailed label. The "level of self-perceived knowledge" appears as the first splitting attribute in

the model are: level of self‐perceived knowledge, factors affecting purchasing, and de‐ tailed label. The "level of self‐perceived knowledge" appears as the first splitting attribute

are reasonable results, considering the well‐established axiom that lack of information can generate skepticism and mistrust towards specific scientific and technological innova‐

The model shows that if the degree of self‐perceived knowledge is high, respondents who have an adequate or very good understanding of the issue are willing to buy these products when there is a strong association with specific benefits for human health and for the environment, whereas the price does not seem to be such a relevant driver of mo‐ tivation to purchase. If the degree of knowledge is low, the model predicts that a detailed

tions.

the decision tree, i.e., the attribute that can best discriminate among the others. These are reasonable results, considering the well-established axiom that lack of information can generate skepticism and mistrust towards specific scientific and technological innovations.

The model shows that if the degree of self-perceived knowledge is high, respondents who have an adequate or very good understanding of the issue are willing to buy these products when there is a strong association with specific benefits for human health and for the environment, whereas the price does not seem to be such a relevant driver of motivation to purchase. If the degree of knowledge is low, the model predicts that a detailed label is crucial if it is associated with a collective benefit. This occurs in the presence of a high level of trust in European food safety authorities. Even if there is a lack of knowledge, a detailed label plays an important role, although consumers still seem to be undecided.

## *3.5. Assessing Classifier Performance*

We have used the classification accuracy and confusion matrix in order to analyze how predictive our model is. In the present work, the accuracy is estimated as 94.3%. Classification accuracy by class (Table 4) summarizes the performance of a classification model as the number of correct predictions divided by the total number of predictions. However, using accuracy as a performance measure assumes that the class distribution is known and, more importantly, that the errors of incorrectly classified instances are equal. Accuracy may be particularly problematic as a performance measure when the dataset studied is biased in favor of a majority class [47]. In addition, we have used the statistical metrics Precision (P), Recall (R), and F-Measure (the harmonic mean of precision and recall values, it allows us to evaluate P and R together). Specifically, recall is the ability of a model to find all the relevant cases within a dataset. It is defined as the number of true positives divided by the number of true positives plus the number of false negatives. Precision quantifies the number of positive class predictions that rightfully belong to the positive class. As precision increases, recall decreases and vice-versa. Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) is a robust metric that summarizes the classifier performance in a single value if positive and negative cases are of equal importance.


**Table 4.** Detailed accuracy by class.

In machine learning, performance can also be calculated using the AUC (Area Under the Curve) and ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) area to summarize the overall accuracy of the classifier. It takes values from 0, which indicates a perfectly inaccurate classification, to 1, which reflects a perfectly accurate test. The precision–recall curve (PRC) can be interpreted as the relationship between precision and recall (sensitivity) and is considered to be an appropriate measure for unbalanced datasets.

An alternative method to gain better insight into the classification and misclassification distribution is the confusion matrix (Table 5). It contains information about actual and predicted classifications made by a classification system [47]. It shows the correct classification against the predicted classification for each class. The number of correct predictions can be found on the diagonal of the matrix. All other numbers represent the numbers of misclassification errors. Misclassifications occur when the row and column classes of a cell do not match. If the intersection across predicted and actual classes of different levels is empty (or zero), then no misclassification has occurred. In our case, the matrix can be

interpreted as 212 instances correctly classified in class "a" (Maybe), 5 instances incorrectly classified in class "b" (Yes), and 0 incorrectly classified in class "c" (No).

**Table 5.** Confusion Matrix.


## **4. Results and Discussion**

Data analysis has shown how the degree of self-perceived knowledge affects the consumers' intention to purchase food obtained by NPBTs. Results of the study demonstrate that perceived knowledge is the most relevant driver of people's risk, benefit, and value perception.

Evidence from previous studies confirms that higher levels of knowledge promote positive acceptance to purchase [48,49], especially when consumers perceive benefits for human health and for the environment, which are issues considered by consumers during their purchasing decisions. This is confirmed by the increasing attention to sustainable food consumption and by people's awareness of their role and responsibilities towards the environment, individual and public health, habitat and biodiversity, social cohesion, and economy [50]. This consciousness leads to a change in consumer attitudes towards a "green" lifestyle, starting with everyday consumption choices [51].

Our results show that consumers who are familiar with NPBTs are more positive toward and more willing to buy such products, especially in relation to their impact on reducing inputs such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve water use efficiency [52]. Health considerations are also crucial drivers in food purchasing decisions. Respondents who consider themselves informed about genetic techniques would be willing to buy NPBT products if they enhance the food's nutritional and health benefits. Despite that, in economic literature, price is usually considered one of the main drivers of food consumer behavior [53], in the case of NPBT products, it appears to be not so relevant. Our findings show that consumers do not pay as much attention to economic convenience as they are interested in products with specific characteristics such as health and environmental aspects [54].

However, several studies underline the differences between stated and revealed preferences, finding that consumers tend to overestimate their valuation of a particular good, service, or outcome, which can lead to misleading estimates of relative value [55]. Therefore, in our study, individuals' stated preferences may not correspond closely to their actual preferences, and this can be considered a drawback of the results obtained.

The model has also revealed that consumers' concerns about NPBT food products are not seen as a threat to the type made in Italy's agri-food system, which is strongly linked in local production with certification labels [56].

When consumers' self-perceived knowledge is low, our model highlights the importance of a detailed label. Hence, a poor self-perceived knowledge does not result in the intention to purchase if not supported by clear and understandable information on the product characteristics [57]. Literature about consumption stresses the key role that the label plays in communicating information about the improved characteristics of novel food and how the food was produced [45]. Consumers' interest in the characteristics of the process makes label essential to learn more about the new food and how it is derived. This output is in line with the notion that consumers routinely rely on experts in the case of complex decisions, which is an admission of knowledge inadequacy [55].

For this group of respondents, the degree of confidence in EU food security is a discriminating factor: if trust is high, consumers are more confident in buying food derived from agricultural biotechnology. This suggests that if the European food safety authorities approved the diffusion of NPBT products, consumers would feel more comfortable buying them.

The lack of knowledge about agricultural biotechnologies brings out a psychological bias derived from the perceived distance between these products and the conventional ones. Consumers that consider NPBT unfamiliar mistrust and fear these products [58–61]. Indeed, familiarity with the product usually leads to a different perception of uncertainty. Consumers who are not familiar with a product tend to believe that they are a higher risk [62]. This behavior in food consumption is called neophobia, the reluctance of individuals to try novel food [63], and can also be seen as the averseness toward new methods of production [64–66].

Our model shows that this gap in knowledge may be compensated for with a detailed label. Indeed, in an increasingly complex food system, consumers need to have accurate information on the characteristics of the food purchased [67,68]. This is in line with the overall EU regulations on labeling, traceability, and quality assurance systems which offer extensive and accessible information to the consumer [69].

The results of the study highlighted that attitude and acceptance change with knowledge. Therefore, in the framework of consumers' concerns arises the need for balanced information and the importance of translating science into laymen's language, which can help informed decisions of consumers.

## **5. Concluding Remarks**

Few studies have investigated the attitude of Italian consumers toward NPBT foods products, and this work tried to contribute to filling this gap in the literature. In this paper, we have used machine learning to classify potential consumers and to acquire efficient information on the attributes that are most important in predicting their behavior towards NPBT products. This study confirms that J48 is a useful tool for the construction of a hierarchical decision support model. The study revealed that consumers are still fearful and uncertain but somehow positive, especially those concerned about the environment and human health. Our study attempted to go beyond a binary "for" or "against" genetic techniques to provide more nuanced data about consumer attitudes that depend on a hierarchy of attributes.

We have seen how the viewpoint of the consumer changes in relation to their level of self-perceived knowledge on the topic. In general terms, being informed greatly reduces the fear and the perception of the risk consumers associate with the product. Knowledge helps consumers understand and, therefore, not reject a priori possibilities that may be advantageous. Mandatory labeling is probably the way to promote consistent decisions. However, current EU regulations do not allow consumers to distinguish NBTs from transgenic products, as the European Court of Justice has ruled that NBTs must fall under the GMO Directive. Policymakers should address advancements in genome editing technologies with proper regulation.

Moreover, there is not an information strategy that may change the trend and empower consumers to deliberately choose among different food options without diffidence. To reverse consumer uncertainty toward NPBT foods, targeted communication campaigns to disseminate their benefits may have major implications for further development and commercialization in the European market. Additionally, a full understanding of the diffusion of NPBT technologies would require further research work. In particular, it would be interesting to analyze the pressure of interest groups in contributing to the social construction of risk.

This study presents some limitations. Firstly, the analysis of the potential willingness to buy intention to purchase new products was carried out in the absence of a real market, hence, stated preference survey responses may not predict actual behavior, leading to hypothetical bias. Future validation of these findings will be possible once NPBT foods are widely available in the EU market. In addition, the sample size is not representative of the overall Italian population, and therefore the quantitative outcomes should not be

interpreted as such. However, we have accepted this biased sample since our goal was to survey opinion at an informative level and not for a study of a target population. From our point of view, the outcome does not affect the validity of the results, and they can be accepted because, in this study, consumers' opinion is generalizable across a population in the same geographical area.

Finally, although online surveys are recognized as valid methods that have quickly gained popularity in research due to their low cost and time savings [70,71], they could present a lack of potential depth and suffer correct guessing.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, G.V. and D.S.; methodology, G.V.; software, G.V. and D.S.; validation, I.P.; formal analysis, R.S.; investigation, F.C.; data curation, G.V. and D.S.; writing—original draft preparation, G.V. and D.S.; writing—review and editing, G.V. and D.S.; visualization, F.C.; supervision, I.P. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** All participants consented to the processing of their data in anonymous and confidential form. Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.

**Data Availability Statement:** The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author (D.S.).

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

## **References**


## *Article* **The Impact of Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors on the Migration of the Rural Arctic Population of Western Siberia**

**Elena Bogdanova 1,2,\* , Konstantin Filant <sup>3</sup> , Ekaterina Sukhova <sup>3</sup> , Maria Zabolotnikova <sup>4</sup> , Praskovia Filant <sup>5</sup> , Dele Raheem <sup>6</sup> , Olga Shaduyko <sup>2</sup> , Sergei Andronov 2,7 and Andrey Lobanov 2,7**


**Abstract:** Environmental and anthropogenic factors represent challenges impacting the lifestyle and demographic rural population's behaviour in the Russian Arctic that threaten its social and food security. We aim to explore (1) which key "push" factors are jeopardising social sustainability and increasing migration outflows in the Arctic rural communities of Western Siberia (2) and how the Siberian population's sustainable development could be secured. The methodology and analysis were based on Lee's theory of migration factors with the main focus on the "push" factors forcing people to migrate to other Arctic and non-Arctic territories. The primary sources included fieldwork data and interviews collected during expeditions to the Arctic zone of Western Siberia between 2000 and 2021. Both men and women confirmed the insignificant impact of environmental factors on their emigration plans. However, they signified social and personal motives related to low standards of living that threatened their social and food security. The rural Siberian population's migration strategies could be re-evaluated only by increasing the physical availability of food products and developing the social infrastructure of the settlements as either "models of rural cities" or "service centres for nomadic and rural population".

**Keywords:** migration; rural arctic population; sustainable development; food security; Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug

## **1. Introduction**

Human migration in the Arctic is a complex socioeconomic phenomenon driven by historical, geographical, cultural, economic, and political factors [1–4]. It is also accompanied by the need to adapt to environmental shifts including climate change [5–8]. Rural to urban migration, or "outmigration", is particularly disruptive to many Arctic local communities [9–12]. For example, over the last decades, nine of the twenty-four Alaskan census regions in the state experienced population loss more than twice that of the United States national average in rural areas [13].

The main drivers of the outmigration in the Arctic are the many environmental and social risks [14,15] faced by the population due to harsh climatic conditions, extremely

**Citation:** Bogdanova, E.; Filant, K.; Sukhova, E.; Zabolotnikova, M.; Filant, P.; Raheem, D.; Shaduyko, O.; Andronov, S.; Lobanov, A. The Impact of Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors on the Migration of the Rural Arctic Population of Western Siberia. *Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, 7436. https:// doi.org/10.3390/su14127436

Academic Editors: Michael S. Carolan and Gideon Baffoe

Received: 5 February 2022 Accepted: 13 June 2022 Published: 17 June 2022

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

low population density, insufficient transport logistics, and social infrastructures, fragile ecological systems, climate change, disproportionate industrial and economic development in the Arctic territories. High costs of living result in challenges for the social and food security of local communities.

Heleniak (2021) predicted little change in the total population of the global Arctic but considerable variations in growth rates among Arctic regions up to 2055: a 10% increase in Alaska, Iceland, Nunavut, Troms, Yukon, the Khanty—Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka; 5% and 10% growth in Finnmark, Nordland, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug; over 5% decline in Finland, Arkhangelsk, Karelia, Komi, Magadan, and Murmansk in Russia [16]. In nearly all of the Arctic regions, the common demographic trends are "aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements" [16].

Environmental changes will drive consequences for individuals, communities, and populations [17]. Climate change is one of the future threats that jeopardise the sustainability of the lifestyles, and livelihoods of the inhabitants of the Arctic. As pointed out by the Secretary-General of the UN António Guterres, "the climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race we can win" [18]. The Arctic ecosystems are suffering from the devastating consequences of climate change: rising temperatures and environmental degradation, increased natural disasters, and weather extremes, resulting in food and water insecurity, and economic disruption [19]. Growing climate change [20–24] encouraged people to "climigration" caused by "immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines" [5] (p. 115), which local communities are facing nowadays. Harsh cold climatic conditions and "remoteness between population settlements in the circumpolar North" make people leave their homelands and intensify migration outflow in the Arctic [25].

However, the primary critical drivers for "fast society-based and tangible shifts" [26] (p. 9) impacting migration in the Arctic region are geopolitical and socio-economic factors [27–30]. Migration affects the quality of life and lifestyles resulting in a significant impact on Arctic sustainability and food security locally and globally [31]. Food security strategies should be based on the premise that food insecurity and famine derive from the failure of access to food rather than global food shortage [32].

It was shown that there were three major "waves" of population decline in the Arctic: (1) between 1900 and 1919, migration outflow in the North American Arctic caused by the end of the "Klondike Gold Rush" (41% of the population of Alaska and the Canadian Arctic left); (2) in the 1960s, 2.3% of the population of Finland and Sweden moved to central regions and neighbouring countries; (3) since 1990, the migration outflow from the Russian Arctic due to recession in the economy [33]. The Russian Arctic was no longer associated with high living standards due to insufficient social and engineering infrastructure [34,35]. By 2019, the decline was 1046 thousand people, or 30% of the total population in 1989 [36]. The demographic trends, complicated by the increased outmigration mobility, were jeopardising the sustainable development of local Arctic communities: for example, a high degree of urbanisation with a low population density [37], gender imbalance with a higher number of men, increasing proportion of the elderly population, and a high birth rate accompanied by a low life expectancy [33].

Over the last three decades, the population shift in the Russian Arctic due to natural increases was almost covered by net migration. However, Heleniak et al. proved population decline in 139 studied Russian Arctic settlements due to outmigration [38–40]. From 1990 to 2019, the population of the Murmansk region, the Kamchatka region, the Taymyr Autonomous Okrug, and the Komi Republic decreased by one-third, the population of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, and the Magadan region declined by nearly 70 percent. There was not such a significant decline of population (13–20%) in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Republic of Karelia, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). In contrast, Siberian areas showed population growth: 29.9% in the Khanty–Mansi Autonomous Okrug, and

15% in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) [41]. However, there was high migration outflow during the last decades [42]. It signifies the need to analyse the critical environmental and anthropogenic factors impacting outmigration, and search for possible solutions for updating migration policy in YNAO. was high migration outflow during the last decades [42]. It signifies the need to analyse the critical environmental and anthropogenic factors impacting outmigration, and search for possible solutions for updating migration policy in YNAO. The research question of our study is: "Which environmental and anthropogenic fac-

cent. There was not such a significant decline of population (13–20%) in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Republic of Karelia, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). In contrast, Siberian areas showed population growth: 29.9% in the Khanty–Mansi Autonomous Okrug, and 15% in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) [41]. However, there

The research question of our study is: "Which environmental and anthropogenic factors threatening social and food security are the key drivers of rural outmigration in Western Siberia?" The significance of this research is to reflect on appropriate policies for strengthening resilience and reducing migration outflows in the Arctic Siberian population. tors threatening social and food security are the key drivers of rural outmigration in Western Siberia?" The significance of this research is to reflect on appropriate policies for strengthening resilience and reducing migration outflows in the Arctic Siberian population.

## **2. Materials and Methods 2. Materials and Methods**

### *2.1. Settings—The Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug: Geography, Population, and Ethnic Structure 2.1. Settings—The Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug: Geography, Population, and Ethnic Structure*

*Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, 7436 3 of 18

YNAO, the geographic focus of our research, is an important region for the Indigenous Peoples of Russia, and it is located in the circumpolar northwest of Western Siberia (Figure 1). It has a population of 547,010 [43] who live in an area of 769,250 square kilometres [44] with a population density of 0.71 people per square kilometre. The population is mainly concentrated in the urban areas of YNAO (84%) [43]. Almost half of the Indigenous small-numbered population of the Russian Arctic (48,932 people) reside there [45]. YNAO, the geographic focus of our research, is an important region for the Indigenous Peoples of Russia, and it is located in the circumpolar northwest of Western Siberia (Figure 1). It has a population of 547,010 [43] who live in an area of 769,250 square kilometres [44] with a population density of 0.71 people per square kilometre. The population is mainly concentrated in the urban areas of YNAO (84%) [43]. Almost half of the Indigenous small-numbered population of the Russian Arctic (48,932 people) reside there [45].

**Figure 1. Figure 1.**  The map of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug. The map of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

## *2.2. Study Design*

In this paper, we presented the results of a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impacts of environmental and anthropogenic factors on migration outflow in YNAO. The objectives of our study were to analyse (1) which key "push" factors were jeopardising

social sustainability and increasing migration outflows in the Arctic rural communities of Western Siberia; (2) how social, food security, and sustainable development of the Siberian population could be secured.

## *2.3. Measurement Tools, Methodology, and Study Population*

This study applied a multidisciplinary approach based on socioeconomic analysis. The primary sources included demographic data on the longitude dynamics of migration flows of different population groups (2000–2021), fieldwork data, and interviews collected during expeditions to the Arctic zone of Western Siberia between 2012 and 2021.

The data on population, natural increase, and migration for the period from 2000 to 2021 were obtained from the open-source platforms (Rosstat [43], Unified information system for modelling and forecasting the socioeconomic development of the Indigenous Peoples of the North of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug [45], Russian Fertility and Mortality Database [46], and Database of Indicators of Municipalities [47]). We used the data collected from the following locations in YNAO: the Nadymsky, Yamalsky, Tazovsky, Krasnoselkupsky, Shuryshkarsky, Priuralsky, and the Purovsky districts. The number of Indigenous small-numbered Peoples in YNAO was received from the Department of National Policy of YNAO [48].

The data on socio-demographic characteristics of the Siberian population were collected during expeditions to the Arctic zone of Western Siberia from 2012 to 2021. The fieldwork was conducted by researchers of the YNAO Arctic Scientific Research Centre, Northern Arctic Federal University, and the Association of Reindeer Herders in YNAO (two of the researchers were Indigenous).

Semi-structured interviews with the participation of rural residents of the Arctic zone in Western Siberia were collected to study the reasons for migration expectations of the population in YNAO. The inclusion criteria for the respondents were as follows: be over 18 years of age, have resided in the tundra, or the settlements of the Arctic zone of Western Siberia for over five years. Data collection was performed in the Russian language with the assistance of Indigenous Peoples. Participants filled out a confidential paper. The reasons for migration outflow and migration expectations were analysed according to the following questions: "Where do you live now?", "Are you going to move to a new place of residence?", "What key factors (environmental, geopolitical, technological, social, and personal) can make you migrate out from your current place of residence?".

The survey sequence was as follows: during an expedition to the settlement between 2012 and 2021, respondents were invited to participate in the survey, and received information about the programme, both verbally and in writing. The written consent form stated that participation was voluntary and that their confidentiality was assured. Participants' personal data and their answers were anonymised, numbered, and entered into de-identified databases.

Statistical analyses were performed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and Statistica for Windows, v. 8.0 (StatSoft Inc., Tulsa, OK, USA). Significant differences were defined at a *p*-value < 0.05.

## Theoretical Approaches to Policy Analysis

There were different factors that impact migration processes, and the factors influencing outmigration were identified by various theoretical approaches. In 1966, the American demographer E. Lee developed the theory of migration factors [49]. He described it as a gravitational model for explaining the "pull" and "push" factors of migration and presented the factors influencing the decision to migrate in the following ways: factors correlated with the territory of departure of migrants; factors associated with the territory of the arrival of migrants who "work" in the territories of potential arrival migrants; interfering circumstances; factors related to the structural characteristics of migrants. Different factors of migration operate in each of the territories. Some factors are "pull", others are «push» ones. Speaking of "push" factors, he means such qualities of the territories of disposal as

political or religious persecution, economic crises, civil wars, military conflicts, natural disasters, and others. Attractive factors may be the following characteristics of migrant entry areas: political stability, freedom of religion, economic well-being, better working conditions, and the possibility of higher wages [49]. In our study, following Lee's approach, we have mainly focused on the "push" factors forcing people to migrate to other territories.

Based on Lee's theoretical approach, L.L. Rybakovsky posits that migration decisions influenced by several factors can be divided into two main groups: objective ("permanent" environmental; "temporary"—socio-economic infrastructure, gender imbalance, the ethnic composition of the population, and others; "current regulation"—employment opportunities, income rates, national policy, and others) and subjective (personal motivation) [50,51]. V.A. Iontsev differentiated economic, social, cultural, political, ethnic (national), religious, racial, military, and demographic factors of migration [52]. S.V. Ryazantsev identified the following main "push" factors of migration: "ecological and geographical", "ethnic", "military and political", "economic", "social", "demographic, and psychological" [53]. V.I. Perevedentsev offered natural (climatic, orographic, hydrological, and others), and social migration factors (demographic, economic, social, and others) [54]. V.V. Fauser divides all factors of outmigration into constant (climate, geographic location), slowly changing (economic structure, development of the territory, and others), and variables (legal, and others) [28].

With a special emphasis on the Arctic, A.V. Ukhanova et al. specified the list of the critical factors of outmigration: (1) economic (income rates, unemployment, economic, infrastructural development, and investment attractiveness of the region); (2) social (housing, education, healthcare system); (3) demographic (yield of unemployed, yield of youth population); (4) ethnic (ethnic conflicts, customs, and traditions); (5) political, and legal (legislative regulation of migration, instability of the political situation in the region); (6) climatic, and environmental (harsh climate, climate change, ecological situation in the region); and (7) personal psychological (family and historical ties, level of education, qualifications, profession) [55]. In our study, we analysed the mixture of environmental and anthropogenic "push" factors of outmigration in the rural population of Western Siberia.

## *2.4. Ethics Approval*

The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Arctic Scientific Research Centre of YNAO, Salekhard, Russian Federation, on 16 January 2012 (approval protocol No. 01/1-13). The research has been done following ethical concerns of working with the Indigenous Peoples in the Russian Federation (Constitution of the Russian Federation, Article 69. 14 March 2020). Communication was initiated with the Associations of the Indigenous Peoples and with representatives from national Indigenous communities in the Nadymsky, Yamalsky, Tazovsky, Krasnoselkupsky, Shuryshkarsky, Priuralsky, and the Purovsky districts of YNAO early in research planning. This resulted in an expression of interest from their representatives in conducting the research in their communities.

## **3. Results and Discussion**

## *3.1. Migration Trends in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug*

From 2000 to 2020, the total population of YNAO increased by 48,438 (9.7%) (Table 1), which differs from the demographic situation in other Arctic regions of Russia [26].

The interregional migration showed the tendency of moving from rural to urban areas (urban population increased by 43,836, or 10.6%). The previous research proved that "the residents of small settlements replace the migrated population of the municipalities, while the last ones migrate to big cities and other regions of Russia . . . There are similar migration processes in the Priuralsky district: the residents of small settlements migrate to the regional administrative centre, the village of Aksarka, whose residents move to the city of Salekhard" [56] (p. 54). The Arctic researchers, K. Filant and G. Detter, evaluated the impact of depopulation processes in the rural areas of YNAO on the increasing economic burden for municipal authorities: "Migration processes in rural areas have hypertrophied negative

consequences due to the small size of the population, the dispersion of settlement and the insufficient economics. Thus, with a reduction of the population, budget expenditures for maintaining the infrastructure of a settlement will not decrease but will grow per capita" [57] (p. 28). The migration from the rural (especially small settlements) to urban areas became the trend for the Arctic region globally. In Alaska, the population decline in smaller settlements located far from Anchorage and Fairbanks was a result of outmigration, which has cancelled out positive natural population growth. There was the same dominant pattern in Fennoscandia: population growth in larger settlements was accompanied by population decline in surrounding smaller settlements. This was similar to the pattern observed in North Atlantic countries (Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands) [40]. The Indigenous Sami population inhabited rural northern areas of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Kola Peninsula in Russia also partly moved to the urban areas [11].

**Table 1.** Demographic Statistics in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug \*.


\* Sources of the data: [43,45–48]. \*\* Difference between year 2020 and 2000.

In YNAO, the female population of the urban territories increased faster (by 26,883 women, or 13.1%) than the rural population (by 2932 women, or 7.2%). In contrast, the male population was increasing slowly: urban—by 16,953, or 8.1%; rural—by 1670, or 4.0%. However, the previous research proved the opposite trend among one of the demographic groups in YNAO, nomadic Indigenous Peoples: a catastrophic decrease in the number of women. This resulted in the "shortage of brides in the tundra" [58]. A similar consequential pattern was observed in northern Alaska and Greenland: disproportionate outmigration by locally-born women [29]. Emigration of the Indigenous women from small, isolated communities in Alaska and Greenland was seen as a pattern of female flight that resulted from modernization and decreased the sustainability of such locales [59].

From 2000 to 2020, the migration outflow had doubled (by 9372, or 55%), and it finally overwhelmed the immigration flow resulting in decreased net migration at 171 (−13.1%). Until now, the high birth rate (increased by 1198, or 20.5%), and labour immigrants covered the impact of migration outflow on the total population of YNAO. Sokolova and Choi (2019) noticed that this balance of natural increase and net migration maintaining a sustainable increase in the total population is partly the result of initiated fertility support programmes, and the development of the Arctic areas [60]. Additionally, Lazhentsev (2015) mentioned that negative net migration rates reduce the chances for the intensive exploration of the north [61].

However, jeopardising tendencies are associated with intensive outmigration and increased outflow of well-educated population, and highly qualified specialists from the Arctic region. The previous research showed that the share of emigrants with university or vocational schools education leaving YNAO was 52.6% in 2013, 53.8%, in 2015, and 84.6% in 2017 [62]. Moreover, the migration expectations and intentions of the YNAO residents depend on their level of education, and well-being; the higher level of education people have, the more eager they are to emigrate from the region, and better well-being is associated with less intention to migrate to other regions [56]. Ivanter (2016), Selin (2016), Fauzer (2017), et al. noticed that qualified human resources are replaced with temporary and often low-qualified personnel from Russia's southern regions, or other countries [63–65] due to migration outflow from the Russian Arctic. This impacts "deintellectualisation" of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, slowdown of technological development, and losing of the cultural identity of the Arctic population" [63] (p. 597). Along with it, Pilyasov (2009) signified disappearing cultural and intellectual diversity in the settlements since "decreasing total population means decreasing the number of talented and creative people" [66] (p. 294).

To cover migration loss, the Russian government developed programmes of "attracting skilled labour to the North" [67]. The intensified migration outflow was partly initiated by the government, which developed state programmes for the resettlement of the population to other Russian regions [68–71]. These political initiatives impacted the sustainable growth of the population of YNAO and could finally move the depopulation of some local communities.

The threatening migration trends among the youth and economically active population groups revealed the tendency of an "ageing population" in YNAO that had already become the tendency in other Arctic regions in Russia [33,34,72–74]. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements [16]. Rozanova–Smith (2021) noted that "as young professionals continue to leave, resettling compatriots and hiring shift labour may contribute to the vitality of more resilient regions" [75]. Contrariwise, youth's migration outflow from the region would impact the demographic imbalance social and food security of the region due to the increased economic burden of the government for supporting depopulated communities with a high yield of an ageing population, and finally, jeopardise demographic sustainability of YNAO.

## *3.2. "Push" Factors of Migration Outflow in YNAO: The Survey Results*

A total of 843 residents of the rural areas in YNAO were interviewed, including 297 men and 546 women. Five hundred seventy-seven of the respondents were Indigenous. The age of the interviewees ranged from 18 to 69 years old; the mean age was 45.6 (95% CI 32.8–58.4).

Only 9.0% of the interviewed (24 men, 52 women) declared their intention to move to a new place of residence (primarily urban areas) this year, 11.0% (31 men, 62 women)—in one to three years, and 37.0% (97 men, 215 women) in five years or later. These migration strategies of the rural residents in YNAO became a sustainable trend over the last decade. For example, previous research also proved the migration expectations in the villages of YNAO. In 2015, 84.5% of rural respondents were planning to change their place of residence; among those, 15.5% were going to move to another location (a city or a village) in YNAO, 47.8% to the Tyumen region, 21.2% to other areas of Russia [57].

All of those interviewed (100%) prioritised the impact of social factors on their migration strategies: low quality of life, insufficient healthcare systems, social and food security, low level of education, unemployment, bad working conditions, and uncomfortable housing conditions. The key "push" factors were "*the shortage of job positions in the villages*" or "*lack of work at all*", "*dilapidated, emergency and uncomfortable housing*", or "*the lack of housing*". Both female and male respondents were concerned about the lack of prospects for the youth in the villages, and were sure that the best strategy for young people was to move to the urban areas and search for jobs there: "*Even if young people graduate from colleges, where they will go? They don't have a job here. What are they going to do here? What's for should they come back to a village?*"; "*At least, there is some kind of prospect for young people in a city. They can have a choice and find a job there*"; "*What kind of job is here in a village? At school, a work of a janitor, and that's all...*"; "*Limited choice of jobs*", "*Low salaries"; "High cost of living"; "High prices for services, products, housing, and electricity*". These are common trends in other Arctic regions. For example, in Canadian Arctic, the research on policy food programmes indicated the presence of chronically food insecure groups who had not benefited from the economic development, and job opportunities offered in larger regional centres of the Canadian Arctic, and for whom traditional kinship-based food sharing networks had been unable to fully meet their needs [76]. Indigenous Peoples in northern Canada experience food insecurity at a rate that is more than double that of all Canadian households [77]. The population of "crowded" settlements suffered from an increased risk of food security. For example, nearly 62% of Inuit families in the Canadian Arctic resided in such households, placing them at risk of food insecurity [78]. Therefore, moving rural Siberian populations to big settlements and urban areas could not be the only solution to provide their social and food security.

Men were worried about losing their traditional lifestyle. However, they did not insist on young people staying in the tundra since there was a low level of salaries and challenging life. Only those who were enthusiastic about nomadic reindeer herding could enjoy this lifestyle. In contrast, others had no other choice but to leave a village for a city: "*Young people do not want to go to the tundra. No land where to herd a reindeer. No salaries. No jobs. So, the youth is escaping*". Assimilation of the Indigenous population due to changing traditional lifestyles and globalisation processes is replacing traditional livelihoods with industries. The previous research proved that "traditional economic activities of Indigenous Peoples are not currently dominant in the structure of employment of the population in small settlements . . . only 15% of the total rural population is employed in traditional Indigenous "industries" [79]. The lack of work in their settlements encourages people to search for employment in nearby regions and extends the daily commute to work. Currently, the municipal statistics of YNAO show that 56% are employed in big settlements or urban areas [80]. This is one of the reasons for the depopulation of small villages. However, other Arctic regions (for example, Canadian Arctic) demonstrated opposite trends; most Inuit families complained about reducing the size of their children's meals because of a lack of money [78].

Previous surveys in other Arctic regions in 2008 [81], 2012 [82], and 2016 [83] also assessed the impact of unemployment and low income on migration outflow. Along with it, high salaries in some Arctic regions (for example, in the Tyumen region [84], and the Murmansk region [85]) do not change youth migration strategies. Ivanova (2017), et al. explain this intensive migration outflow with limited possibility of professional careers for talented young people in the Murmansk region [85]. The common trends of the youth migration aspiration were observed in Alaska. About 50% of the rural students expected to migrate permanently away from their home region. The likelihood of expecting migration increased curvilinearly with community size. Young women and college-aspiring students disproportionately expected outmigration [86]. However, some in Finnish Lapland, demonstrated the phenomenon of an increasing number of young people who, despite the general tendency towards youth outmigration in rural areas, decided to stay in their hometowns [87].

The problem of increasing unemployment is mainly rooted in the limited approaches to the economic development strategies of the rural areas in YNAO and the lack of economic specialisation of the settlements. This formed unique "ecosystems" in the rural areas, where people adapted to their sustainable lifestyle with minimum needs and expectations, and low requirements for modern social and technological infrastructure [80]. Rural residents' households are mainly based on a subsistence economy, and they are not focused on producing goods and increasing their income [88]. Therefore, finally, the life-system support of these settlements, social benefits, and insurance for the population to maintain minimum living standards are budgeted by regional governments. Over 60% of residents of these settlements are employed in educational organisations (schools, kindergartens), housing and utilities, and local governments, while only about 40% are working in agriculture [80].

A low density of population and insufficient transport logistics resulted in limited access to medical services. Most respondents mentioned that the most painful issues are the lack of hospitals, medical doctors, and insufficient quality of medical help: "*Healthcare and roads. That is the essential basis for everyday life*"; "*Severe climate results in worsening health. However, we have no chance to visit medical doctors. We need to go to the hospitals in the big settlements for that.*"

Over 70% of those interviewed confirmed that one of the critical drivers of emigration is insufficient housing and educational infrastructure: "*All housing is old*", "*Houses are almost destroyed*"; "*Most buildings need capital repair*"; "*They lack central heating, hot and cold water, electricity in the houses.*" However, we disagree with Shelomentsev (2018), et al. [27], who noticed that the most significant factor impacting migration outflow in YNAO is "price of houses". This factor was not mentioned by any of our respondents, they primarily worried about bad conditions, and the lack of modern conveniences in the houses.

Over 90% of women signified the critical factor of low level of education, and the lack of secondary schools in many settlements: "*I have to send my kids to school to another big settlement since we have an only primary school here. I can't see my children for several months while studying and living there. I want a better life for my kids. Maybe, we will have to move somewhere else*." The interviewees mostly did not complain about the quality of the education. However, they highlighted the importance of the communication services in their settlements (sustainable Internet and mobile connection). It was especially significant for the youth respondents: "*The quality of the Internet is low, that does not allow me to participate in the social life of other districts and regions, to receive information and knowledge, and study online*".

Intensive educational migration in YNAO since 2010 can be explained by the closing of the branches of universities, and increased unemployment rates in the region. So, young people finish school and leave for other cities outside YNAO to get higher education and find better jobs. All interviewed respondents (100%) aged 18–24 years old were not interested in using the opportunities of getting higher education online based on the Internet distance-learning platforms, and they plan to move to other regions. Over 90% of people aged 18–24 years old leave their residence and study in different places [80]. However, the rates of "educational migration" are also high in those Arctic regions of Russia which

have universities. The surveys conducted by Rosstat (2005, 2008) [89], and by Arkhangelsk Scientific Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences [83] confirmed that this is one of four key drivers of youth migration outflow in the Russian Arctic.

Most respondents (over 90%) were not satisfied with the social infrastructure, and the quality of social services, which provides their personal motivation to emigrate from the region. Some of them decided to move to a new place of residence following their families or close relatives (14%), and others hoped to get married in a new location (primarily women). Some people were forced to migrate due to limited access to medical services since they have chronic diseases and need regular doctor visits. Over 70% (mostly women) do not see any changes or prospects for the life of their children in the region and are ready to emigrate with them. The respondents mentioned: "*The kids at school are not motivated to stay. They just don't see their future here*"; "*What will happen to Nyda? I don't think that anything will change for the better in 5–15 years*"; "*It's better moving than losing everything here*"; "*I don't particularly believe that something will happen in the future. People have no hope*"; "*If you would come in the spring when our children go to school in swamps*"; "*In 15 years, only people who were born here will stay here. Our children and grandchildren will move to the city*". The interviewed did not believe that any changes could happen since "*The system will never change. So, everything will stay the same".* Furthermore, personal motives were always supported by other factors (primarily social and technogenic) since the desire to change a life, lifestyle, or location is always rooted in some objective factors. Parlee (2012) studying Canadian Arctic mentioned that people can easily face the challenges of food insecurity since their individual views of their own well-being contradict regional statistics on quality of life [90].

All respondents could clearly explain the reasons for their migration expectations (what exactly they were not satisfied with, in their current residence) and listed the number of factors impacting their decision (why they want to leave for another location). It was noticed that "A great dissonance in subjective perceptions of the quality of life is a result of the comparison of the level and quality of life in urban or large rural areas while people are travelling, and the media (television, through information channels on the Internet) also has important influence" [80]. When making a final decision on moving to the new location, people are comparing the "losses" and "benefits" of this change. The researchers Beglova and Musin (2017) mentioned that "A migrant's decision about possible relocation is formed under the influence of a rational comparison of the actual standard of living with its potentially improved option, predetermined by the migrant's resettlement. A migration flow occurs when a non-disabled household member prefers the "move" option to the "stay" option, with the costs of moving being offset by expected future benefits." [91]. The priority impact of personal factors on migration strategies of the Russian Arctic population was also confirmed in the previous surveys conducted by Rosstat (2005, 2008) [89], Kola Scientific Research Centre (2008) [81], and the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (2012) [82]. Similar results were received in Alaska where personal rural residents' outmigration motives were also dominant [92].

The respondents considered another group of factors referred to so-called "technogenic factors" as one more critical driver of migration. Over 50% were not satisfied with logistics infrastructure since it limited access to social infrastructure and jeopardised their food security. The interviewee responses signified the correlation between insufficient logistics, high prices, and low quality of products in the local shops: "*The products are delivered here by helicopters in summer, autumn and winter (if not bad weather), or we have to wait until winter when the rivers are frozen, and we can deliver what we need by "zimnik (frozen river or lake used as a logistic route—E.B.)*", "*If there were a good road, probably the products would be cheaper. Because it would be easier to deliver them here*" "*The doctors would be more accessible, and everything would be more accessible if there are good roads. We have to buy everything in the city and it deliver here*". The shortage of vegetable food and dairy products, high food prices, and limited access to food products strongly impact women's migration expectations: "*Marketplaces are almost empty, there are no deliveries here. We depend on deliveries by helicopters*". One woman complained that her little child aged seven years old had never tried ice cream there, and

they could not buy fresh milk in their settlement but only dried milk due to complicated logistics. Transportation, distribution, and handling services have direct impacts on food security as exemplified by other authors on the Arctic food system [93,94].

In contrast, the problem of transport accessibility of the settlement was not so significant for men, and it slightly affected their migration strategies since they considered it an employment opportunity. Some remote settlements can be reached only by helicopters and boats, and the products are delivered there once a month: "*If you need to buy some products or goods you can either wait until the helicopter arrives in a month or go by boat to the big settlement. However, it is very costly, and if there is no urgent need, it is better to delay and wait*".

High costs of products and services in YNAO (as well as in other Arctic regions) can be explained by high production and logistic costs. Due to rising inflation and political and economic crises, these costs tend to grow. Vasiliev and Selin (2017) noticed that the coefficients of increasing production costs would change in the interval of 1.3–3.0 in the north; these values are higher in the north and northeast of Russia. The increase in production costs in the north varies from 30–35% in the European North to 60% in the Far Northeast of Russia [95] (p. 24). However, the researchers signified that an increase in these production costs should not be "compensated" and "subsidised" only by the government. Instead, the enterprises are to focus on reducing costs to increase their products' competitiveness [95] (p. 24). The same issue with high costs of living is faced by other Arctic global communities. For example, current food systems within the northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available) and are environmentally unsustainable [22].

The insufficient logistics also impact the shortage of medical personnel and medicines in the pharmacy, the lack of a general practitioner, a dentist, and other doctors in the remote settlements [23] that "determines public health in the Arctic areas" [24]. The interviewee mentioned: "*Health care and roads. We all depend on them. We have helicopter service. We can't go by car and get to the city quickly*". The situation is complicated by the fact that the transport accessibility of small settlements totally depends on weather conditions and seasonality [58] since the main transports are water (in summer), and air (in winter). Using automobile transportation is possible only in winter. Several remote settlements in YNAO are accessible only by snowmobiles in winter, and during the off-season, logistic routes are closed due to weather conditions, and distant geographic locations.

One more component of the technogenic factors, digitalisation, and the insufficient innovative technologies, was more relevant for the youth respondents since they all complained about "*bad Internet*", and "*limited choice of mobile phone service*". They noticed that "*there is no ATM in the village, which worsens already the low quality of life*", "*It is difficult to buy the tickets for a helicopter that is the only regular transport here*". However, in total less than 20% of the interviewed mentioned this factor as significant for their migration strategies. Lazhentsev (2013) prioritises the role of digitalisation since it is the critical instrument of innovative development of the Arctic region: "The localisation of human, intellectual, industrial, and other resources for the north for the Arctic is necessary . . . It is possible only due to high-speed transport, and a fibre-optic network with its connection to educational and scientific centres in Russia and foreign countries." [82].

Geopolitical factors associated with ethnic conflicts, the criminal situation, and the COVID-19 pandemic did not strongly impact the migration strategies of YNAO residents. Over 60% of respondents did not mention these factors, while about 40% of them noticed that this is important without giving any additional explanations. In 2016, a survey of the Arctic regions' residents showed that one of the significant reasons for outmigration in the Russian Arctic was the "insecure criminal situation" (yield was 17.4%) [96]. However, Shelomentsev (2018), et al. [27] considered this data to be unreliable and considered that geopolitical factors did not have a relevant impact on migration expectations of the Arctic population.

Significant warming trends have already affected the Arctic Peoples' traditional lifestyle, well-being, and health in Scandinavia and the Russian Arctic [97–100]. Climate

change represents a global challenge that impacts the Siberian population's environment, traditional lifestyle, and health and threatens its food security [19]. This requires increased adaptive capacity [101,102], and coping strategies [103] for changes in the terrestrial ecosystem caused by climate change are urgently needed [104,105]. However, climatic factors were not signified as the critical drivers for migration strategies of the interviewed participants (less than 5%). The respondents mentioned that the climate is changing worldwide but did not specify any significant impact on their lives. The same results were received by the researchers in the Canadian Arctic: significant changes in climate being observed were not currently affecting female food security, with socio-economic-cultural factors as the primary determinants of food security [106].

More important for the respondents were environmental pollution (15%) and limited access to natural resources (hunting and fishing) relevant to food security. In contrast, the survey conducted by Goncharenko, et al. (2008) [81] in another Russian Arctic region, the Komi Republic, showed that one of the critical drivers of their migration strategies was the intention to change to a milder climate. This was also confirmed later by the results of a survey initiated by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (2012) [61].

Finally, none of the respondents offered the only key factor that impacted their migration strategy; all the interviewees listed at least 3–to 4 most relevant factors. The social, technogenic, and personal factors dominated, and they were closely linked.

The main strength of our study was using the unique data of quantitative and qualitative research collected from residents of the local rural communities during the expeditions that took place over ten years (2012–2021). Most similar studies remain fragmentary and are often hard to access. However, our study had several limitations. We interviewed only a part of the population in different districts of YNAO. Participation was voluntary and did not include all representatives of all local communities of the studied territories, limiting the generalizability of our findings. Future research could also benefit from exploring the outcomes of migration outflow from the region (with a particular focus on the social security of the local communities), and "pull" factors of migration. Nevertheless, this analysis can give precious results for improving and updating governmental programmes of socio-economic policy in YNAO.

## **4. Conclusions**

Our findings showed that migration expectations are a complex phenomenon, and critical drivers for the human adaptation strategies to the changing Arctic ecosystems. Both men and women confirmed that environmental (with emphasis on climatic) factors did not significantly impact their emigration plans. However, both of them signified the impact of social and personal motives: low-quality housing, uncomfortable living conditions, high costs of living, limited access to medical care, lack of life prospects in the settlement, desire for changes and a better life for their children, the decision of family members to move to a new place of residence. They also considered migration to other settlements or cities to meet new people, make new friends, and obtain access to active social activities.

As the critical factors for their migration strategies, women signified social (limited access and insufficient quality of medical care, education, unemployment, high prices for food products and goods, food security issues, the lack of conditions and social support for disabled people) and personal factors (health issues, the lack of prospects of living in the rural areas, desire to "*give a better life for their children*"). Women were also more motivated to migrate to improve their social status. Conversely, men consider the more significant influence of the following factors: changing traditional lifestyle, environmental risks, soil degradation, and transformation of natural landscapes, political situation, the insufficient introduction of innovative technologies in the social sphere (medicine, housing construction), low income, and personal motivation (for example, desire to change their lives and become independent from relatives).

The influence of a group of factors threatening social and food security and impacting migration outflow from the rural areas of YNAO differed, with the prevalence of a group

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We offer short-, medium-, and long-term measures to support the sustainable development of the local communities that can improve quality of life in the rural areas of YNAO with consequences on migration strategies of the population:

*Short-term measures:*


*Medium-term measures*:

	- To identify and develop the settlements that can become the "*models of rural cities*". *ies*". *Long-term measures*:

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualisation, E.B. and K.F.; software, E.S.; validation, K.F.; formal analysis, E.B. and K.F.; investigation, E.B. and K.F.; resources, E.S., M.Z., K.F., P.F. and E.B.; data curation, E.B.; writing—original draft preparation, E.B. and K.F.; writing—review and editing, D.R., S.A., O.S. and A.L.; visualisation, E.S.; supervision, E.B.; project administration, E.B.; funding acquisition, E.B. and O.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. **Author Contributions:** Conceptualisation, E.B. and K.F.; software, E.S.; validation, K.F.; formal analysis, E.B. and K.F.; investigation, E.B. and K.F.; resources, E.S., M.Z., K.F., P.F. and E.B.; data curation, E.B.; writing—original draft preparation, E.B. and K.F.; writing—review and editing, D.R., S.A., O.S. and A.L.; visualisation, E.S.; supervision, E.B.; project administration, E.B.; funding acquisition, E.B. and O.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. - To identify and develop the settlements that can become the "*models of rural cities*". **Author Contributions:** Conceptualisation, E.B. and K.F.; software, E.S.; validation, K.F.; formal analysis, E.B. and K.F.; investigation, E.B. and K.F.; resources, E.S., M.Z., K.F., P.F. and E.B.; data

**Funding:** This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant **Funding:** This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant № 22-28-01554). The study was also supported by the Tomsk State University Development Programme («Priority-2030») and partly carried out using the research equipment of the Unique Research Installation "System of experimental bases located along the latitudinal gradient" TSU (№RD 2.2.2.22 RG). 22-28-01554). The study was also supported by the Tomsk State University Development Programme («Priority-2030») and partly carried out using the research equipment of the Unique Research Installation "System of experimental bases located along the latitudinal gradient" TSU ( curation, E.B.; writing—original draft preparation, E.B. and K.F.; writing—review and editing, D.R., S.A., O.S. and A.L.; visualisation, E.S.; supervision, E.B.; project administration, E.B.; funding acquisition, E.B. and O.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. **Funding:** This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant № 22-28-01554). The RD 2.2.2.22 RG).

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** The study was conducted according to the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Arctic Scientific Research Centre of YNAO (protocol No. 01/1-13, 16 January 2012). study was also supported by the Tomsk State University Development Programme («Priority-2030») and partly carried out using the research equipment of the Unique Research Installation "System of experimental bases located along the latitudinal gradient" TSU (№RD 2.2.2.22 RG). **Institutional Review Board Statement:** The study was conducted according to the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Arctic Scientific Research Centre of YNAO (protocol No. 01/1-13, 16 January 2012).

**Informed Consent Statement:** Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the **Institutional Review Board Statement:** The study was conducted according to the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Arctic Scientific Research **Informed Consent Statement:** Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.

study. Centre of YNAO (protocol No. 01/1-13, 16 January 2012). **Data Availability Statement:** The study did not report any data.

**Data Availability Statement:** The study did not report any data. **Acknowledgments:** We are grateful to the Indigenous communities of the YNAO for their participation in the interviews. We also thank Oleg Sizov, a researcher at the Laboratory of Integrated Geological and Geophysical Study and Development of Oil and Gas Resources of the Continental Shelf, Oil and Gas Research Institute RAS, for designing a map of the YNAO. **Informed Consent Statement:** Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the **Data Availability Statement:** The study did not report any data. **Acknowledgments:** We are grateful to the Indigenous communities of the YNAO for their participation in the interviews. We also thank Oleg Sizov, a researcher at the Laboratory of Integrated Geological and Geophysical Study and Development of Oil and Gas Resources of the Continental Shelf, Oil and Gas Research Institute RAS, for designing a map of the YNAO.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest. **Acknowledgments:** We are grateful to the Indigenous communities of the YNAO for their participation in the interviews. We also thank Oleg Sizov, a researcher at the Laboratory of Integrated **Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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## **References**


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