*3.2. Shape Distribution Pattern*

Regarding the shape (construction type) of the portable batteries, the distribution pattern is shown in Table 7. The share of round cells/batteries is very high (about 85%), due to the aforementioned high quantities of portable batteries with the format factors AA and AAA. It was observed that lithium-ion batteries are often prismatic or pouch-shaped.


**Table 7.** Shape/construction type of the analysed portable batteries.

## *3.3. Risk Modelling*

Table 8 presents the results of the modelling of potential risk (in potential fire incidents per year), comparing residual household waste (RHW) and lightweight packaging waste (LPW). The values are based on fictitious waste systems with 100,000 tonnes per year of the respective fractions of residual household waste and lightweight packaging waste (2016). For 2020, the assumed growth was included, which was linearly extrapolated, which resulted in a two per cent increase for residual waste and a four percent increase for lightweight packaging waste.

**Table 8.** Risk modelling for portable and lithium-based batteries in residual household waste (RHW) and lightweight packaging waste (LPW).


The risk potential is shown in potential fire incidents per year. The waste collection scenarios are very similarly related to the potential risk of fire, while the waste treatment scenarios differ more. Remarkably enough, the risk almost doubles in all of the observed scenarios.

The probability of occurrence is presented in a particle-based form and it reveals the high risks of battery-caused fire incipiencies in terms of likelihood.
