**2. Materials and Methods**

The model proposed in the article is based on the Delphi method. The Delphi method is designed to assess the aggregate expert opinion on complex problems, potential consequences and the effectiveness of the use of cost measures. The structured opinion of a group of experts in comparison with the opinion of one specialist is a tool for further and more accurate forecasting [18,19,27–29].

Following the basic structure of Delphi, the authors developed a questionnaire, the passage of which was allocated 1.5 weeks for 60 experts: employees of companies and universities of the mineral and fuel and energy complexes. The purpose of the survey was to determine the priority set of fuel resources for individual consumers, taking into account the political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal risks of using each resource. Risks were assessed on a nine-point scale, where 1 is the minimum risk impact; 9—the maximum impact of risk. Also in modeling, the influence of external factors was considered on the basis of scenario forecasting [18,30,31]. Given that many works noted the importance of risk assessment in the scenario forecasting based on expert evaluations, in our scenarios, we necessarily considered:


The study was divided into three stages, which are shown in Figure 2. The research methodology includes the following stages: first, a review of the region—the current state of the energy system and energy infrastructure, a study of the resource base, the fuel and energy balance, and related problems, including climatic. Then the study is divided into technological modeling of demand and scenario modeling. In the technological section, the list of key consumers is determined, and current and future centers of energy loads are highlighted. Based on an analysis of trends and tendencies, requirements are derived for each type of consumer, in terms of reliability category, required installed capacity, mobility, seasonality, and carbon footprint. Similarly, an assessment of possible resources by technical and economic criteria and CO2 emissions is carried out. Scenario modeling generates scenarios according to the conditions of which and the results of a survey among

experts the demand for energy consumption will change, as well as the probability of meeting the demand for different types of resources.

**Figure 2.** Research Methodology.

#### *2.1. Analysis of the Development Potential of the Arctic*

The Russian Arctic (AZRF) is a geographical area within the Russian Federation, located above the Arctic Circle. It includes Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Regions, the Komi Republic and Yakutia, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Nenets, Chukotka, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts, Belomorsk, Kemsk, and Lo-Ukhsk districts of Karelia, as well as lands and islands located in the Arctic Ocean and some uluses of Yakutia [34].

The study identified the following types of prospective consumers for the territory of the Arctic—they are also referenced points and points of growth (consumer agglomerations), on which the further development of the territory will be built:


The study analyzes the development potential of all of these types of consumers, but in the final version of the work, the authors formulate conclusions only on some of them.

Hydrocarbon deposits and rare-earth metals. The scales of the Arctic resource potential are estimated as follows: about 70% of the total unexplored gas reserves in the Arctic are managed by the Russian Federation [35]; in the Arctic regions of the country, there are strategic and rare-earth metals—about 10% of the world reserves of nickel, 19% of the platinum group metals (PGM), 10% of titanium, over 3% of zinc, cobalt, gold, and silver; the largest coal and diamond deposits [36]. It is worth noting that 70% of the Arctic oil resources are concentrated in the shelf areas, and most of the explored fields are difficult to extract. Moreover, it is estimated that up to 25% of hydrocarbon reserves lie under the ocean strata on the Lomonosov Ridge [37].

Currently, coal and oil products have a significant advantage in the energy balance of the mainland Arctic, which negatively affects the fragile ecosystem of the region [38]. An essential role in reducing the negative impact and increasing the added value of the product will be played by such technologies as Clean Coal and the introduction of digital tools throughout the supply chain. Gas and gas-condensate potential can occupy a niche of gas-chemical production and ensure the production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and hydrogen, which will not only make up for export losses due to the accelerating decline in demand for oil but also provide new investment and return flows [39].

Single-industry towns. The development of the Arctic's natural potential first of all requires a huge number of qualified specialists, but the actual living conditions [40] lead to a migration outflow of population. The difference in the socio-economic situation is due to the high diversification of the economy of single-industry towns and dependence on enterprises and is emphasized by the division of towns in the Arctic zone into categories [16,41–43].

Logistics clusters. One of the most important vectors of the development of the transport industry of the Russian Federation in the Arctic region is the establishment of permanent communication along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) [44], which requires the development of mainland infrastructure [45]. The Arctic zone is also characterized by a well-developed railway network; at present, there is the financing of the Northern Latitudinal Railway (NSR), Northern Latitudinal Railway-2, and Belkomur projects. The estimated traffic volume along the Northern Movement is 23.9 million tons of various cargoes per year [46]. The aviation infrastructure of the Arctic zone is currently represented by more than 160 airports and airfields.

The places of intersection of air, rail, and water hubs are the so-called transport hubs. In the complex development and development of the Arctic zone, they acquire enormous importance due to the tendency of formation of agglomerations near such clusters, transport accessibility, and available infrastructure. The work identified the following hubs: the currently existing ones (5) in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Sabetta, Vladivostok, Dudinka and the ones to be built (3) in Ust-Luga, Tiksi, Korsakov.

#### *2.2. Energy Characteristics of Energy Consumers in the Arctic*

Given the resource potential of the Arctic in the conditions of the gradual depletion of the continental base, the creation of transport and logistics hubs capable of giving a new impetus to the development of world trade, as well as the military and political aspect, the development and exploitation of the Arctic zone acquire a new strategic and economic momentum [47].

The development of the Arctic is a sequential and multistage process. It is necessary to ensure the development of promising areas, the maintenance and modernization of the existing infrastructure and the creation of comfortable living conditions for the population [48]. The remoteness from the main industrial centers of the country creates the need to build a large network of railways and roads: first, to maintain a high level of mining, and second, to supply the Arctic regions [49,50].

An indispensable condition for the development of the region is a reliable uninterrupted energy supply to existing and prospective consumers following global trends and requirements. Arctic states face a number of common problems in this area, among which are remoteness from central energy networks, the use of expensive diesel fuel for energy generation, the high level of tariffs for energy services, as well as the specifics of the life

of small indigenous peoples. Arctic conditions require the development of affordable, reliable, and easy-to-operate technologies that can supply energy to remote areas under icing conditions, high humidity, and critically low temperatures, using environmentally friendly energy carriers.

As a result of research, the following characteristics of consumers have been revealed: the peculiarity of power supply of military bases—the necessity of independence from each other, energy sources working independently according to the special group of the first category of reliability and uninterruptibility of electric receivers. The power supply of military bases does not have to take into account its environmental and economic efficiency. In the structure of generating capacities of single-industry towns, there are a large number of boiler and diesel-generator sources. Low efficiency of heat and power networks and their significant wear and tear is observed. The Arctic region has grea<sup>t</sup> potential in the use of non-conventional renewable energy sources [51]. Wind energy has the greatest potential in the Murmansk region and can be used to create Power-to-X systems [52]. Power-to-X technology is a solution to the problem of the interconnection of energy sectors [53]. Steam-gas turbine units (SGU) are often used for distributed generation to obtain electric and thermal energy due to their high efficiency. The technology of converting electricity into heat (in this case Power-to-Heat) using heat pumps or heating rods is an innovative environmentally friendly way of heating buildings and even providing industrial enterprises with process heat. In the Arkhangelsk region, there is an active development of the industry of environmentally priority fuel-liquefied natural gas. The creation of an efficient support system for the development of small-scale power engineering, disclosure of floating nuclear power plants, and the increase of local resources efficiency will become the starting point of socio-economic development of North-West Russia. At present, scientific stations are mainly equipped with diesel power plants. For onshore research stations, the energy characteristics vary depending on the activity of use and the focus of research. It is perspective to use biofuel as a resource for the energy supply of agricultural complexes, which is received as a result of the cultivation of certain crops or animals' vital activity. In its turn, the transition to the use of biofuels will take a long time, so at the first stages, it is advisable to use wind-diesel installations, which are already in operation in the Murmansk Region [54]. The energy supply of data processing centers is characterized by reliability and uninterrupted operation. Most of the energy is consumed for cooling and operation of the equipment located in data centers. Currently, most data centers are powered by diesel generators, while large IT companies follow the trends and use renewable energy sources [55].

#### *2.3. Requirements for Energy Consumers*

For each of the allocated types of consumers, the requirements for energy supply were formed. For the convenience of perception, analysis, and application in the mathematical model, the selected requirements are summarized in Table 1.




**Table 1.** *Cont.*

The transition to qualitative characteristics is due to the task of implicitly comparing the requirements of consumers and the criteria for energy sources: we resorted to this method so that it would be easier for experts to compare the resource and the consumer and assess the weight coefficients of their connection. In addition, due to a large variation in the installed capacity, we decided to assign such parameters as "capacity" qualitative characteristics. If you have close values of the installed capacity of the compared consumers, it may be more convenient for you to go to quantitative characteristics. Each of the qualitative characteristics presented by the authors is inherent for a certain primary resource. The method with their use emphasizes the influence of characteristics on the choice of consumers due to their specific's requirements for primary resources. The use of this connection when analyzing the compatibility of a resource with a consumer's requirement distinguishes our method from others.

#### *2.4. Resources for Power Supply to Consumers*

The main energy resources in all regions of the Arctic zone are fossil resources: natural gas, coal, diesel, fuel oil, gasoline, kerosene, associated petroleum gas (APG), coke, peat, and oil shale. The leading positions in the structure of the fuel and energy balance (FEB) of the Russian Arctic are taken by such resources as natural gas, coal, and oil products.

Natural gas. The priority in the use of this resource is given to the western regions of the Arctic zone (Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Republic of Karelia, and Murmansk Oblast), where the infrastructure of local and main gas pipeline networks is developed. The YNAO and the Komi Republic are gas suppliers for the other western regions mentioned above. The Taimyr-Turukhan zone (Krasnoyarsk Krai) is the "greenest" of all the zones, with 60% of installed capacity coming from gas and the remaining 40% from water flow energy.

Coal. This resource is widespread in those Arctic regions where there is direct extraction, for example, in Chukotka AD. In other regions of the Arctic zone, coal is usually transported.

Oil products. Fuel oil and diesel oil are delivered to the territory of the Arctic in full. In the structure of fuel and energy mix of the Murmansk Region and the Republic of Karelia, they account for a significant part.

Nuclear fuel plays a significant role in the energy supply of the Murmansk Region and Chukotka AD. Further development of nuclear power in the Arctic is promising due to floating nuclear power plants. The energy of water streams is used in the energy balance of the Murmansk Region, and the Republic of Karelia has potential for the development of hydroelectric power. Associated petroleum gas is used in the energy regions where oil production takes place. In areas with a predominance of the woodworking industry, wood and municipal solid waste are used. Now, renewable energy sources do not make a significant contribution to the fuel and energy mix of Arctic consumers.

It is necessary to note the important role of LNG in the resource market. Considering the resource potential of the Eastern Arctic, that is, gold, tin, copper deposits, remote from fuel bases, it is necessary to have a resource that allows increasing the necessary capacities under requirements of carbon footprint reduction. Taking into account the course on the gasification of the Arctic region and development of the main transport route—the NSR, LNG has the prospects to take the leading position in the nearest decade not only on the external resource market but also on the domestic one.

Hydrogen is a potential resource, which in 2035–2050, with the development of appropriate technologies and the accumulation of sufficient experience in its use, could take significant positions.

Criteria for resources. All resources that are consumed in the region or are perspective from the point of view of use for energy supply are summarized in Table 2. They are evaluated by criteria, among which are economic and environmental: the capital cost of building a generation unit based on the selected resource (CAPEX), the average present value of electricity over the life cycle of the resource (LCOE), the net present value of building and operating a generation unit for the resource (NPV), as well as emissions, expressed in the equivalent of CO2. Economic indicators are one of the most important assessed parameters of electrical engineering complexes, as a rule, they act as optimization criteria [58]. Quantitative indicators by criteria are given, which reflect in point expression the minimum (1 point) and maximum (5 points) level for the selected criterion.


**Table 2.** Criteria for resources.

All fuel resources (except for solid fuel and resources) at the stage of realization require considerable capital costs but getting energy from them entails consequences for the biosphere, which are caused by a different set of processes and the nature of their appearance. Thus, obtaining the end product from wind, solar, water, and land energy is less destructive to the environment in terms of disturbances and pollution due to the lack of transport processes and resource extraction [59]. Renewable energy sources are used locally and are not "transportable".

Hydrocarbons and coal are the most capacious fuels in terms of the number of processes and require a well-developed transportation infrastructure. Hydrogen fuel is a possible alternative to fossil fuels, which is worth considering as a source of clean energy and a means of storing it for Arctic consumers while developing technologies for the production, storage, transportation, and consumption of hydrogen. In its turn, natural gas has grea<sup>t</sup> potential in terms of exportable resources to the EU and APR countries due to the development of LNG production technologies.

We should also note the possibility of risks of LNG supply reduction to other countries through the use of hydrogen energy, the development of which generally helps to reduce the global dependence on gas. Petroleum products are ubiquitous and widely used fuels for all types of consumers.

Nuclear energy is also applicable to many consumers, is environmentally friendly due to minimal CO2 emissions, and is convenient in terms of the long-term use of nuclear fuel, which is imported from other regions of Russia.

Using estimates for petroleum products as an example: CO2 emissions for 2020 in the world amounted to more than 12 billion tons, or 30% of the total amount of emissions, respectively, the authors assigned a maximum rating of 5 points [60]. The LCOE for diesel installations varies according to specifications and fuel prices. On average, the LCOE will hover around \$50/MWh for small installations, while for solar panels, it will be over \$150/MWh, so an average rating of 3 was given [61,62]. CAPEX for oil fields continues to grow due to growing concerns about ESG and pressure on investors [63,64].

As a result of the analysis of review and analytical articles, a list of major global technological trends and related technologies was identified [65–70]. The existence of each trend is confirmed by examples of Russian and foreign company cases.

Against the background of global goals to reduce the carbon footprint of most industries, companies are striving to implement RESs and renewable energy, combining them with traditional sources under the control of IT technologies. Storage of produced energy is a no less urgen<sup>t</sup> issue, which is solved by companies at the level of technology in the struggle for primacy in the creation of new storages [71]. Digitalization, implementation of microgrids, and active-adaptive networks are a number of additional technological trends caused by the global agenda.

At the moment, Hevel is building an autonomous hybrid power plant with a total capacity of 2.5 MW in the village of Tura. Hywind Scotland wind farm, built jointly by Equinor and Masdar, is operating in the Scottish waters. The total capacity of all wind turbines is 30 MW, the capacity factor is 50%. The development of hydrogen energy and transport should be singled out in the cases of RESs and RES companies: Airbus hydrogen gas turbines, Alstom hydrogen fuel cells [72]. For 6 years, Rubin Central Design Bureau has been preparing the Aisberg project, which includes the development of underwater production complexes of northern fields. The work includes the development of specialized drilling rigs, production stations, process control, and energy-saving equipment.

ROSATOM has developed a number of small nuclear power plants (SNPPs) designed for service in remote areas of the Arctic. Among them, there are transportable complexes, as well as complexes designed for offshore operation, so power units from 1 to >100 MW are represented [73]. The harsh conditions of the Arctic, in general, promote the development of autonomous technologies, as well as remote control technologies. Even today, there are a large number of Russian and foreign projects in the field of unmanned technologies, flying and underwater vehicles for remote control for transport, construction, research, and oil and gas industry needs. The Russian Helicopters Holding Company has developed the VRT-300 multifunctional unmanned helicopter for the Arctic and NSR development, capable of cargo transportation, environmental monitoring, search and rescue operations, as well as equipment and road infrastructure diagnostics. Kalashnikov Concern, Lazurite Central Design Bureau, and others are also engaged in the design of drones.
