**1. Introduction**

A combination of external factors (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal) has led to the emergence and consequently the aggravation of global challenges [1–4]. Among them are over-population and urbanization, decentralization of the world, environmental and climatic changes, increasing consumption of energy and resources. Delay in addressing these global challenges undermines the sustainability and

**Citation:** Zhukovskiy, Y.; Tsvetkov, P.; Buldysko, A.; Malkova, Y.; Stoianova, A.; Koshenkova, A. Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic. *Resources* **2021**, *10*, 124. https://doi.org/10.3390/ resources10120124

Academic Editor: Elena Rada

Received: 28 October 2021 Accepted: 2 December 2021 Published: 7 December 2021

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**Copyright:** © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

security of the development of all mankind. Both for Russia and the whole world, the Arctic can become an answer to these challenges [5,6].

Quite a lot of research is directed towards the Arctic, this region and its features have always attracted the scientific community, much attention is paid to the social component. Recently, the region has attracted even more attention due to climate change and new opportunities, both predictable and unpredictable [7].

The Arctic zone has potential as a resource base of hydrocarbon, which is about 13 billion tons of oil and 86 trillion m<sup>3</sup> of gas. Their development is both a driver of economic sector progress and a lifeline for the implementation of the energy transition [7]. The value of the region is supported by the status of the guarantor of national security of the country and the cultural significance of the indigenous peoples of the North [6]. Mistakes made in the development of the potential of the Arctic can turn into both an ecological catastrophe and an economic foul—the cost of wrong decisions is several times higher [8,9]. Therefore, our study develops and complements the forecasting made earlier in order to reduce the risks of making decisions on development and focus on the resources, levers, and incentives for the necessary development.

According to the analysis of scientific works in the field of forecasting quality demand due to the growth of specific consumers, it was revealed that research is aimed at obtaining energy in certain conditions and in the short term. Many researchers resort to statistical and machine learning methods. In [10], the mixed integer programming method is used, which allows determining the state and power level of all generators to maximize the profit of the gas company. In [11], a support vector machine-based simulation is applied to predict solar and wind energy resources. The study [12] proposes a typical-load-profile-supported convolutional neural network for predicting plant-level electrical load. In [13], the forecast for natural gas consumption is based on a decomposition method by combining three different components: a trend-driven time series, a seasonal component based on a linear loop model, and a transit component to estimate daily fluctuations using explanatory variables.

In the field of research devoted directly to forecasting the growth of the Arctic region and demand in the Arctic, a small amount of work has been identified. Thus, in [14], the application of statistical models and neural networks to predict energy demand for two settlements was studied. Of course, in connection with the environmental agenda, attention is paid to renewable energy sources. In work [15], using econometric modeling, the potential impact of renewable sources in the Arctic on the sustainability of the region is estimated.

Thus, no potential models have been identified that could carry out strategic forecasting according to the risks and allow allocating a relevant set of resources in accordance with consumers. In connection with the goals of achieving carbon neutrality, the demand for hydrocarbons as a source of electricity is not predicted. Demand response activities are geared towards optimizing load schedules and lowering costs but do not take into account customer characteristics and do not take a long-term perspective. In the works on forecasting the growth of demand for electricity, the regional potential is not considered in terms of the development of tourism, science, the provision of medical services, and others.

Our proposed research is based on the growth of consumers, taking into account their qualitative characteristics, taking into account the opinions of experts, taking into account the analysis of interrelationships, and building the growth of demand for power, energy, and types of energy as a single structure. This will enable early preparation of energy infrastructure and long-term assessment of the dynamics of carbon footprint and climate change while maintaining the region's environmental sustainability and energy supply.

The study not only proposes a forecast of energy demand in various scenario conditions but also reveals the structure of this demand on the part of the consumer and the types of energy that will ensure sustainable energy supply in the Arctic.

The complex approach in the estimation of the needs of consumers of energy will allow to level gradually the naturally arising risks. It is necessary to create a solid foun-

dation to ensure the development of resources, despite the specifics of the region. The basis for this should be infrastructure with a new logic of functioning, interaction, and sustainable development within the framework of the growing digitalization and transition to Industry 4.0.

Given the exhaustion of the continental resource base and taking into account the potential of the Arctic zone in terms of reserves, enhanced by the creation of transport and logistics hubs and the military-political aspect, the exploration, and development of the Arctic zone become a strategically important and economically beneficial step [16,17]. Hence, it is necessary to ensure the development of promising areas, maintain and modernize the existing, often outdated infrastructure, and create comfortable conditions for people to live in.

An indispensable condition for the development of the region is a reliable uninterrupted power supply to the territories, following global trends and sustainability requirements [18]. The progress in energy supply in the AZRF is determined by the global level of energy development, where a significant impact is made by the ongoing energy transition and digital transformation of energy. This is reflected in the 5D concept, which reveals the direction of current trends and tendencies and on the basis of which the analysis of current ways of possible development is carried out in Figure 1.

**Figure 1.** Linking the Sustainable Development Goals, technological trends and tendencies, and the resources under consideration for energy supply in the Russian Arctic.

Digitalization changes the work of the energy system; there is a new understanding of the use of electricity, power generation, and supply, the functioning of consumers and systems for the production, transporting, distribution, and storage of energy.

Decarbonization is related to climate change and primary fuel supply, electrification, and energy conservation and brings economic, environmental as well as social benefits.

Decentralization is related to changing the growth logic of energy systems and the distribution of energy consumption trends toward a larger number of small energy and economic nodes, which stimulates innovations from energy storage to intelligent databased control systems.

Dependence is about the increasing information and technological dependence of production, transportation, and use of different types of energy on each other [19]. Integration of electricity, gas, water, heat, cold, and collaboration with all participants of the fuel and energy complex [20].

Decrease indicated a trend to reduce consumption not only of energy but also of all kinds of resources and materials, reduction of waste, and their increasing involvement in recycling [21]. This trend is facilitated by a qualitative change in consumer behavior and new production technologies that allow customizing products [22].

In its turn, each trend corresponds to a certain set of technological tendencies in the energy supply. Considering the current tendencies in energy supply, a certain set of necessary energy resources for regional development is formed [23,24]. Thus, it is possible to estimate the need for energy resources for this or that investment project. Given the need for sustainable development of the Arctic region [25], the development of technologies in the field of renewable energy and the achievement of carbon neutrality is a priority. However, to reduce the share of traditional hydrocarbon raw materials, it is necessary to properly plan the development of energy demand and its environmental friendliness in the short term until 2035 [26].
