*2.5. Methodology*

➢ First, a fully integrated hydrological analysis of the Mygdonia Basin for historical and future periods was carried out. Future climatic data were derived and analyzed from the SMHIRCA Regional Climate Model (chosen among MPI-M-REMO and METO-HC\_HardRM3Q0 as the most credible to simulate the P and T of historical data), while climate change impacts on the water balance of both lakes and the Mygdonia Basin aquifer (conjunctive managemen<sup>t</sup> of surface and groundwater resources) until 2100 were projected by developing a modeling system that included coupled hydrological

and hydraulic models, namely, UTHBAL [67,68] MIKE SHE, MIKE HYDRO River and MIKE HYDRO Basin [69–71]. Details can be found in Malamataris et al. [47].

The final outputs of the modeling system (Figure 2) included the future water balance of the Mygdonia Basin aquifer and the Lakes Koronia and Volvi, as well as the piezo-metric surface and the water level, surface area and stored volume of the lakes until 2100. Details can be found in Malamataris et al. [47].

➢ By using the information of the previous hydrological analysis, three sustainable development strategies were formed that combined different adaptation measures seeking sustainable solutions for the restoration of the water system and the development of the area. The results were published in Kolokytha et al. [49]. Some of the results are discussed in this work as an example of adaptation to climate change in water systems with a high negative water balance.

**Figure 2.** The developed integrated modeling system applied in the Mygdonia Basin that was modified, adopted by Malamataris D. et al. [47]. GW refers to groundwater.
