*Article* **Spatiotemporal Changes in Mulberry-Dyke-Fish Ponds in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area over the Past 40 Years**

**Wenxin Zhang 1, Zihao Cheng 1, Junliang Qiu 2, Edward Park 3,4,5, Lishan Ran 6, Xuetong Xie 1 and Xiankun Yang 1,7,\***


**Abstract:** Mulberry-dyke-fish pond ecosystems are a representative traditional eco-agriculture in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Investigations about the changes in the systems and their relevant water environments under the background of rapid urbanization can provide valuable information to formulate sustainable protection and development strategies. Using the Landsat images obtained after 1986, this study combined supervised classification and visual interpretation approaches, as well as water intensity index and synthesized index to identify the spatial patterns of changes in the ponds in the GBA over the past 40 years. The results indicated that during the period 1986–2013, the total surface area of the ponds in the GBA increased significantly and peaked in 2013 with a total increase of 84.63%; After that, the total surface area showed a downward trend with a total decrease of approximately 31.34%. The year of 2013 was identified as the milestone of the changes. The results proved that human activities have continuously influenced the spatial distribution and size of fish ponds in the past 40 years. The fish ponds had transformed from near-natural ponds with different sizes and a near-natural random distribution in the early stage into an artificial distribution and an artificial shape. Land use changes, industrial transfer, Government guidance and financial motives were the major drivers to the changes. If no effective measures are taken, this shrinking trend in the ponds will remain in the future.

**Keywords:** mulberry-dyke-fish pond ecosystem; spatial evolution analysis; remote sensing; Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area
