*2.2. PEST Analysis—Economic Environment*

Table 2 shows the economic factors of RE in the Pomerania region. In the case of EU Member States, Poland is characterized by economic growth. This was brought to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 3 shows the dynamics of the volume and added value of Poland in the years 2016–2020 [61]. The world economy has practically recovered from the crisis that started in 2008 and is now struggling with the economic problems resulting from the pandemic. The prices of energy carriers remain at an average level; in October 2021, the price of crude oil was around USD 83–84/barrel [62], the price of hard coal was USD 233/Mg [63], and the price of natural gas was USD 5.30/million bt [64]. These prices are higher than 2 years ago [55], which means that energy from RE sources is becoming increasingly competitive in relation to energy from fossil fuels.



**Figure 3.** GDP growth index in the years 2016–2020 in Poland (own study from [59]).

An important element of the macro-environment of RE in the Pomeranian Voivodeship is the situation of the labor market: employment structure, unemployment rate, and population migrations. Official data [65] indicate that the unemployment rate in Poland at the end of August 2021 was 6.4% (5.6% in the Pomerania Voivodeship). Moreover, rural areas with relatively high unemployment offer excellent conditions for the development of renewable energy sources. A 20% rate of unemployment, which was measured in 2004/2005, and accession to the EU resulted in intensified emigration processes in Poland and in the Pomeranian Voivodeship. Currently, over 2 million Poles live abroad. Inflation in Poland was declining until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation has increased since then. The prices of consumer goods and services in August 2021, compared to the same month last year, were increased by 5.5%. Compared to the previous month, the prices of goods and services increased by 0.5% [66].

It is worth emphasizing that employment in the RE sector is growing year by year, which is important for the Polish economy. Today, almost 90,000 people are employed in the photovoltaics sector alone [67]. It is estimated that 150,000 people in Poland are employed within the RE sector. Regarding RE installations, although they are becoming cheaper every year, their price is still quite "prohibitive", especially for individual investors. Very few take into account that the operating costs of a heat pump are much lower than those of a coal-fired furnace (and the environmental and climate costs are even higher). Investors in

RE in Poland and in the Pomerania Voivodeship may apply for co-financing/loans from both EU funds and national funds [55].

The system of green certificates has been in use since 1 October 2005, based on the amended Energy Law [68]. The rapid development of the technology of biomass co-firing with coal led to an oversupply of green certificates on the market and a reduction in their prices from around PLN 300/MWh in 2012 to around PLN 25/MWh in mid-2017 and PLN 213/MWh in October 2021. Such low certificate prices have a negative impact on the financial liquidity of many RE installations in Poland. Designing and introducing the auction support system was a revolutionary change in the area of supporting electricity generation from RE sources. This system ensures the competitiveness of entities participating in the auctions, which translates into the most favorable electricity prices and, consequently, has an impact on the costs of electricity offered to end users. The auction is won by the entrepreneurs who offer energy at the lowest selling price [69].

In Poland, interest rates are currently at a record low, but they have grown in the past. The Lombard rate is 1.00%, the reference rate is 0.50%, the rediscount rate is 0.51%, and the deposit rate is 0.00% [70]. Polish RE investors are characterized by high innovation, entrepreneurship, and activity. They very often contribute their own ideas to improve the "conventional" technology, thanks to which the process of, e.g., methane fermentation has been improved. Increasingly, investors are developing two or more types of RE, e.g., biogas plants and PV panels. The accession to the EU and the opening of the borders allowed Poland to make an economic "leap". Since then, many trade agreements have been concluded, and there has been free movement of technologies and services. For several years, many Polish research centers have been conducting joint research projects with other research centers in the EU. The latest achievements of EU technology are more often implemented in Poland.
