Scenario I: a 10%-unit increase in the Finnish population using at least one whole grain serving a day, Scenario II: one or more additional whole grain servings a day among those who already use at least one whole grain serving a day, and Scenario III: the combination of Scenarios I and II. In all scenarios, the current situation was applied as a comparator.

#### *3.2. Results of One-Way Sensitivity Analyses*

In one-way sensitivity analyses, when using the 20-year time horizon as an example, the largest effect on the results was the effectiveness of intervention and applied discount rate (Figure 2a,b). Savings variated from 473€ to 1110€ million and gained QALYs variated from 7583 to 17,812 when the effectiveness estimate was varied according to its 95%CIs. Changing the discount rate from 0% to 5%, the savings varied from 629€ to 1140€ million, and the gained QALYs variated from 9551 to 19,821. Other studied model parameters had a modest or small effect on the potential population level savings in all the studied scenarios. Scenario I 501

Scenario II 1091

Scenario III 1748

(170 to 1041)

(331 to 2325)

822 (310 to 1587)

1749 (570 to 3440)

2845

1323 (480 to 2628)

2840 (901 to 5765)

4593

studied scenarios.


**Table 5.** Projected cumulative mean QALY changes (95% CIs) compared with the baseline situation in the year 2017. (593 to 3806) (1033 to 5603) (1626 to 9409) (6882 to 34,991) (10,632 to 52,799) (17,514 to 87,790) (31,723 to (36,171 to 148,325) (67,894 to 273,260)

*Nutrients* **2021**, *13*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 15

**Table 5.** Projected cumulative mean QALY changes (95% CIs) compared with the baseline situation in the year 2017. **10-Year Horizon 20-Year Horizon 30-Year Horizon Scenario # Women Men Total Women Men Total Women Men Total** 

> 8314 (3224 to 15,691)

> 17,590 (6626 to 34,373)

27,494

13,614 (5245 to 25,681)

28,602 (10,299 to 55,667)

45,114

20,310 (8407 to 36,205)

41,850 (16,002 to 78,749)

70,426

23,927 (9925 to 41,424)

50,842 (19,830 to 93,074)

83,668

44,237 (18,332 to 77,629)

92,692 (35,832 to 171,823)

154,094

5300 (2021 to 9990)

11,012 (3673 to 21,294)

17,620
