*5.2. Actual Business-as-Usual Scenario and REmap Scenario*

A more realistic evaluation of how wind energy can reduce carbon emissions is shown by comparing the simulation results of the actual BAU scenario with those of the REmap scenario in which the full utilisation of potential for wind energy is expected to start from 2025. Figure 4 presents possible amount of carbon emissions reduced in the REmap scenario.

**Figure 4.** Reductions in Carbon Emissions under REmap Scenario (million tons). BAU = business as usual. Source: Authors.

The difference in the quantity of carbon emissions ranges from 1.44 million tons in 2034 to 26.22 million tons in 2025, mostly because new capacity of wind energy is assumed to be installed in 2025. Excluding this, the next highest difference is achieved in 2028. Carbon emissions under the REmap scenario appear to be higher than those under the actual BAU scenario during the last three years of the study period, caused by less hydro capacity during those years.
