*5.1. Energy Supply in the Mekong Subregion*

The total primary energy supply (TPES) in the Mekong Subregion (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam) is projected to increase by 189% in the BAU scenario, and by 121% in the APS from 2017 to 2050. In actual amounts, it will increase from 234 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2017 to 675 Mtoe in the BAU scenario, and to 516 Mtoe in the APS by 2050. It is observed that the Mekong Subregion depends heavily on fossil fuel consumption (oil, coal, and gas). Based on the baseline data from 2017, the fossil fuel share in the energy supply is around 75% of the total in the Mekong Subregion. It is projected that the Mekong Subregion will see growing dependency on fossil fuels in the future. In this regard, the study results showed that by 2050, the share of fossil fuels in the energy supply will be about 88% in the BAU scenario and 81% in the APS. In actual amounts, the combined coal, oil, and gas in the energy supply is expected to increase from 175 Mtoe in 2017 to 595 Mtoe in the BAU scenario and to 420 Mtoe in the APS by 2050. Oil is the dominant energy source in the energy supply, followed by natural gas and coal (see Figure 1). Oil is expected to increase from 74 Mtoe in 2017 to 255 Mtoe for the BAU scenario and to 197 Mtoe for the APS in 2050. Natural gas is expected to increase from 49.3 Mtoe in 2017 to 184.3 Mtoe for the BAU scenario and to 133.6 Mtoe for the APS in 2050. Coal will increase from 51.6 Mtoe to 155.8 Mtoe for the BAU scenario and to 89.3 Mtoe for the APS in 2050. Other sectors, including biomass, wind, solar, and electricity, will see increases from 58.8 Mtoe in 2017 to 80.0 Mtoe for the BAU scenario and to 96.5 Mtoe for the APS by 2050.

The difference between the BAU scenario and the APS is the energy saving potential in the TPES. Coal will see the largest energy saving, with potential of 42.7%, followed by 27.5% for natural gas and 22.7% for oil. These large energy savings are expected from the implementation of energy efficiencies, with improved efficiency in thermal power plants and energy efficiency in end-use sectors such as transportation, industry, commercial, and residential sectors. The Mekong Subregion is expected to see an increase in renewables of about 20.6% in the energy supply mix by 2050 (see Figure 1).
