*4.3. Data*

This study updates the initial capacity given in Chang and Li [6] using the data taken from ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) [26] and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) [25]. Figure 1 shows the initial installed capacity in ASEAN by plant type in 2018.

**Figure 1.** Installed Capacity by Plant Type in Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 2018. (Megawatts). PV = photovoltaic. Sources: [7] and [26].

## *4.4. Scenarios*

This study establishes three scenarios: a counterfactual business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, an actual BAU scenario, and a REmap scenario. First, as the objective of this study is to estimate how much wind energy can help reduce the cost of meeting the electricity demand in the ASEAN region, it sets a counterfactual BAU scenario as a hypothetical base case. This assumes that no wind energy is used at all. In other words, there is no initial capacity of wind energy, and there is no added capacity of wind energy for the entire study period. This scenario presents the maximum possible contribution of wind energy to the cost of meeting the demand for electricity in the ASEAN region.

Second, an actual BAU scenario is set in 2018 in which the current initial capacity of wind energy is considered.

Third, a REmap scenario adopts the capacity of wind energy assumed in the REmap 2025 case in IRENA and ACE [7]. The REmap approach takes all available energy sources, including renewables, and considers energy supply and demand in power, heating, transport, and cooking. It aims to find a viable way of achieving the gap between the share of renewable energy under the reference case that is 17 percent and the target share of renewable energy for the region that is 23 percent. Full utilisation of potential wind energy is to be implemented in 2025 (Table 5).


**Table 5.** Expected Wind Capacity under REmap Scenario.


**Table 5.** *Cont.*

Source: [7].

As stated previously, Viet Nam is expected to utilise its huge potential of wind energy and install the largest capacity of wind energy (5700 MW) among the 10 ASEAN countries. Indonesia is next at 2900 MW, and Thailand and the Philippines are in third and fourth with installed wind capacity of 1800 MW and 1100 MW, respectively.
