*Article* **Strategic Directions: Evaluation of Village Development Strategies in the Case of Applicants for the Hungarian Village Renewal Award**

**Szabolcs Bérczi \*, Zita Szabó and Ágnes Sallay**

Doctoral School of Landscape Architecture and Landscape Ecology, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, 2100 Gödöll˝o, Hungary; szabo.zita28@gmail.com (Z.S.); sallay.agnes@uni-mate.hu (Á.S.) **\*** Correspondence: berczisz@vzm.hu

**Abstract:** Village roles have changed significantly in Central Europe over the last century and a half. In our article, we mainly deal with the conditions in Hungary. Based on the relevant literature, we follow the changing role, problems and presence of Hungarian villages. Our research focuses on evaluating village development strategies; thus, an essential part of the article is the presentation of the European and Hungarian village renewal movement, as the 50 settlements examined are also part of the settlements launched at the Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition. In this research, the 50 settlements were divided into three groups according to their role in the settlement network. The settlement group analysed their development priorities by summarizing the Hungarian Village Renewal Award applications. As a result, it was found that the development directions of the villages belonging to the individual settlement groups can be well separated from each other. The choice of the settlement development strategy is greatly influenced by the distance from the central settlements and the settlement network situation. We compared our results with the analysis of the strategies of some foreign villages (located in the former socialist bloc) and then examined the Hungarian village surveys of the last century and a half, focusing on land use changes and their role in development. As a result of the analysis, it became clear that the importance of land use in the life of villages in the initial period decreased spectacularly over time and was replaced by employment and the role of the settlement network. The main result of our research is that we have proven that the strategic priorities of village development can be grouped based on the position of the villages in the settlement network, and the priorities are mainly determined by the size of the central settlement and the distance from it.

**Keywords:** village; strategy; development priorities; land use

#### **1. Introduction**

In the last century, the situation and role of villages have undergone a significant transformation, both in the western part of Europe and in the former post-socialist area. Villages have taken on a new role, looking for the correct answers to the challenges of the 21st century. Accordingly, a new type of development measure is needed among small settlements.

In our article, we aim to analyse the villages' strategic development priorities and present and interpret the renewal and development plans of the increasingly tricky small settlements and their specific development elements. Knowledge of these elements can help both professionals and decision makers to develop proposals for development programs at higher territorial levels. In our article, we are now looking for the answer to the question of which development elements and priorities determine the strategy of each village and to what extent the situation of their settlement network influences this. This article focuses on the analysis of Hungarian villages. As a result, we draw general conclusions from their results.

**Citation:** Bérczi, S.; Szabó, Z.; Sallay, Á. Strategic Directions: Evaluation of Village Development Strategies in the Case of Applicants for the Hungarian Village Renewal Award. *Land* **2022**, *11*, 681. https://doi.org/10.3390/ land11050681

Academic Editors: Víctor Hugo González-Jaramillo, Antonio Novelli and Tao Liu

Received: 9 March 2022 Accepted: 28 April 2022 Published: 3 May 2022

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**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

To gain an accurate understanding of the situation, we considered it necessary to present the history of the villages to the present day, including the changed circumstances, which may explain some development decisions, even seemingly irrational. Our studies also paid particular attention to the resources on which the villages base their development. To this end, we looked at the factors based on how the surveys of the last 150 years grouped the villages and which development factors were emphasized for each type of village. We did this because, in our view, arable land as a local resource can be an essential element in the strategic development of small settlements.

However, our primary goal is to analyse the village development strategies by examining the applications of the villages that participated in the Hungarian Village Renewal Award. Therefore, it is essential to present the details of the Hungarian (and European) village renewal movement and the related Village Renewal Award. Without this knowledge, the reader may be confused by the grouping system of our results.

The structure of the article and the logical connection of each Section are shown in Figure 1.

**Figure 1.** The logical connection of the researched topics.

#### *1.1. Changed Village Roles*

As a result of socio-economic changes in the last century, the settlement network in Central Europe has changed significantly; thus, the traditional role of villages has also changed. The villages of the countries of the socialist bloc underwent changes that changed from country to country after the change of regime. However, the geographical location of the settlement (deprived area or urbanisation) and the land ownership structure played a decisive role in the changes. Development opportunities are determined by political heritage, but also by the weakening of the role of agriculture in the economy [1], urbanisation [2,3], the backwardness or rapid development of certain areas [4], and sustainability in agriculture [5–7], which define research directions. In addition, the European Union's agricultural [8,9] and rural development [10] directives, which already include complex development aspects [11], set out development opportunities. Research in different fields of science also shows that supporting different local initiatives can significantly contribute to rural development [12,13].

Despite the similar political system, different trends can be identified in each country during the changes in the settlement network [14]; thus, we briefly present the changes in the settlement structure in Hungary since the 19th century, as this is essential for analysing and understanding the current situation. Furthermore, we want to present the changed situation through the processes in Hungary, where given that Hungary was located on the eastern side of the Iron Curtain, the process created more extreme situations than the European average.

Hungary was traditionally characterized by agricultural production in the 19th century. A system of large feudal estates characterized the century, and this estate structure was and survived until the middle of the 19th century.

Before the First World War, the vast majority of the Hungarian rural population lived off agriculture [15], under challenging conditions, two of which were due to the underdevelopment of the large estate system and industry. This situation did not improve between the two world wars [16]. According to contemporary interpretations, the village was the scene of traditional peasant society and agricultural production. However, it was gradually transformed into a new, more diverse form of settlement [17]. However, the "village = agricultural settlement" formula, due to socialist economic and settlement policies, became invalid even before the change of regime [18,19]. Rural society was no longer composed exclusively of the agricultural population [20], and after the change of regime, the process intensified further.

Due to the communist takeover after the Second World War, the self-determination of local governments ceased to exist, several settlements came under the joint control of the council, and collectivizing agricultural policy and intense industrialisation exacerbated territorial differences [21]. The general phenomena of the first stage of socialism are industrialisation at a stormy pace, the reorganization of agriculture, the liquidation of homesteads (and the creation of new homesteads), the stratification of employment, and the rapid, accelerating growth of cities. As a result, the change in the state of the villages became the most characteristic. There were no mature types of transforming village at that time. Their general feature was only the separation of the traditional unity of settlement, agriculture and peasantry [22].

In socialism, the most crucial sector of the economy was industry, and in 1970, 10–15% of the village population was industrial and one-third mixed [18]. The transformation of villages was also significantly influenced by the effects of settlement and social policy: the construction of the socialist economy (collectivisation, industrialisation) favoured certain areas, and according to the principles of settlement network planning, the differences in supply increased; thus, the less-favoured areas due to the structural network and the poor condition of the housing stock are becoming increasingly disconnected [19]. By the end of socialism, however, due to the unified treatment of socialism, the villages were increasingly losing their former character [23].

Following the change of regime, the 1990 Local Government Act gave settlements an entirely new legal status, the municipalities were "freed" from the subordination of the territorial level, the principle of self-government considered the possibility of selfgovernment as a fundamental part of the democratic system [24,25], and municipalities, regardless of size, were granted complete municipal independence.

As a result of self-sufficiency, local governments have made significant economic and infrastructure development progress. However, the value of improvements is diminished because most municipalities have only achieved partial results without a comprehensive renewal strategy and have stalled since initial improvements [26]. The great euphoria of independence was thus soon followed by rapid sobriety [27]. However, in the first half of the 1990s, there were signs of insolvency in some elements of the fragmented structure, especially in small villages with structural problems [25].

The framework of the development of the settlement network has changed radically. The separation of individual villages and the formation of new villages have been facilitated [28], the population of tiny villages has become more fragmented, the number of dwarf villages has increased [29,30], the number of local governments has increased to over 3000 and the competition of settlements has intensified. "Villages have entered the free market of their settlements", in which their relative position is determined by their geographical location, their endowments and the local policies that exploit them [19,31]. Thus, the introduction of free local government and normative financing fundamentally changed the previous structure. As the local government was associated with rights and

obligations, there was a great deal of tension between local governments between the elements of a fragmented system and the allocation of resources [25].

Following the regime change, the social processes caused by the sudden freedom also rearranged the roles in the settlement network [32]. The development and populationabsorbing power of the cities had severe consequences for the villages outside the agglomerations of the big cities: the small settlements had to face the worsening processes of emigration and ageing: primary care was lost as well as services for the local society, society was ageing and services had deteriorated further [20,33]. Patrick Drudy called this process the "cumulative cycle process" [34]. Thus, the prevention of unfavourable demographic processes and the strengthening of local society became the primary goals of the survival and development of villages.

The most characteristic features of the transformation of the settlement network were geographical deconcentration and territorial differentiation, which resulted in regional transformations. Several rural areas rose in parallel with the classical suburbanisation processes [35,36].

As a result of the settlement network and the urbanisation of society, the emigration of young people to cities has intensified. The population of rural villages has decreased, and society has become older [37]. However, in addition to the changing role of villages, the social demands placed on them have also changed. The "urbanisation" of the villages, the supply expansion and the improvement of the quality of locally available services became basic expectations. At the same time, in the age of digitalisation, the village can also be seen as the opposite of the accelerated urban way of life: the calm living environment and the need for a "rural" way of life are becoming more and more critical [38]. The above two opposite processes also set the villages on a new development path. Due to the changing roles and expectations, the new development directions and strategies could be the breaking points of the villages, through which the individual small settlements could become successful.

Villages need to place more and more emphasis on their development as a result of urban competition such that they can be an attractive alternative to the city for the population. To this end, (conscious) settlement development has become essential for the villages. Their renewal and development can be seen as a potential living space by the locals and the people wishing to settle here. The decline and then renewal of villages (and rural areas), the conscious development of settlements, and, over time, the growing number of leading-edge villages have given rise to a village renewal movement that maintains villages (and rural areas). Aimed to preserve them, increase their vitality, and develop them sustainably [39]. Along with these principles, the Hungarian and European Village Renewal Awards are organized every two years, described in detail in Section 1.2.

#### *1.2. Village Renewal Award*

From the end of the 20th century, the renewal of villages and rural areas, village and rural development has become more and more critical [40], the principles of which were enshrined in the 1996 Cork Declaration [41], and which were further developed in 2016 [42]. The implementation of the Cork Declaration is being developed by the European Union's Directorate—General for Agriculture and Rural Development within the framework of the Common Agricultural Policy [43]. Today, village renewal has also become a domestic and European movement. As a result, dozens of villages can be set as an example in front of other small settlements. In our research, we deal with these villages: we want to present the development of those villages which, recognizing their changing roles, were able to provide an appropriate response to the challenges of the new millennium and serve as a positive example for other settlements.

Our research examined the results of the settlements that participated in the Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition. The Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition grew out of the village renewal movement launched by the European-based European Rural Development and Village Renewal Working Community (Europäische ARGE Landentwicklung und Dorferneuerung) [44,45]. The European Economic and Social Committee has also prioritised this issue, as exemplary initiatives, good practice and the dissemination of good practice are essential for the regeneration of Europe's rural areas [46], and the Village Renewal Movement seeks to motivate villages in [47].

The European Community organizes the European Village Renewal Award for Rural Development and Village Renewal. (The Working Community operates voluntarily as an international NGO, independent of EU institutions and bodies.) The European Village Renewal Award has been announced since 1990, with an international panel of experts giving an opinion every two years on the success of each applicant's work [39].

The application initially focused on two strategic themes: the situation of villages (landscape, settlement, cultural heritage and infrastructural characteristics) and related developments (cultural landscape, agriculture, building stock, renewable energy, local quality of life, or social and cultural institutions). In 1998, the call for proposals was modified. First, the development goals were divided into ten, later seven and eight, and since 2012, nine topics. These were the most important strategic areas of village development, and applicants had to present their development results in these areas [48].

In addition to presenting thematic developments, comprehensive conceptual planning and strategic processes, sustainable development and partnership have become increasingly important in the call for proposals, focusing on individual initiatives, dialogue between politicians, experts, public authorities, local people and regional cooperation.

Each European Village Renewal Award competition has its motto, and compliance with it is a priority during the competition. The competition's motto has constantly been changing over the last 30 years. It is clear from each title that the challenges the advertisers were looking for have definitive answers in the current period (Appendix A). (Of particular interest is the 2020 motto that local responses to global challenges are the biggest challenge).

The villages participating in the European Village Renewal Award are evaluated according to a complex system of criteria, taking into account the initial situation, development goals and processes, and the individual development projects in each thematic area.

The Hungarian competition is also closely related to the international village renewal competition. In general, we can discuss the embedding of the Hungarian competition in the European Village Renewal Award competition, considering that after the Hungarian competition, the winner will represent Hungary in the European competition. The Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition is announced every two years. The applicant settlements document the life course and development goals of the villages for the development period, as well as the programs and measures taken for these purposes. The most important aspect is how complex the programs implemented during the development serve the development of the village, and whether they provide an appropriate answer to the challenges and problems raised by (the village). The thematic programs examined during the development are the following:


The grouping of the programs into thematic areas as required above requires a tight strategic approach when compiling the application documents (and during the decisionmaking process). In addition, it makes it easier to compare individual villages.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

In the course of our research, we worked with the data of 50 villages launched in the Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition (Figure 2). The 20–40-page application materials of each village contain statistical data according to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), local characteristics (e.g., several local associations, NGOs and number of members) as well as development goals and implemented improvements. The application materials show the aggregation and systematization of data that also contain the national register (KSH) data; thus, their separate collection [49] has not become necessary.

**Figure 2.** Location of sample settlements.

According to the literature data, the 50 villages represented a diverse set of settlements that could represent the Hungarian village types. Therefore, for the analysis, the sample settlements needed to have different villages in terms of geographical location, settlement size and the settlement network's role.

One of the hypotheses of our research is that the nature of the development strategy, the selection of the development directions and the essential characteristics of the strategy are determined by the regional location of the villages and their role in the settlement network. Accordingly, we classified the sample settlements into three categories: settlements located in metropolitan agglomerations (in the vicinity of county capitals), settlements located in small-town catchment areas, and settlements located in depopulated areas; the latter category included all the settlements in the catchment area of small towns with less than 10,000 inhabitants. Grouping was performed according to the central settlement of each settlement group, differentiated according to the function (and size) of the central settlement. Thus, the basis of the grouping was not the villages but the cities that represent the spatial organizing power of the villages. (The grouping principle was also supported by the results of the settlement network research carried out by VÁTI (Urban Planning Office, later VÁTI Hungarian Regional Development and Urban Planning Nonprofit Ltd., Budapest,

Hungary) in the 2000s, according to which small towns and new settlements in terms of their function are in many cases unable to perform the task of a regional organization. Thus, the availability of actual centres from smaller settlements in the vicinity of these "appearance" cities becomes problematic, and the quality of life in villages located in functionally deprived areas decreases [31].

In our research, the classification of settlements into three groups was validated using KSH basic data (KSH serial number, "success index" and pattern analysis of basic statistics of sample villages and their neighbours-mean, standard deviation, median, minimum, maximum, confidence interval) [50]. Thus, the individual examinations were performed separately for the groups. After the classification into three groups, 17 of the examined settlements belong to metropolitan agglomerations, 20 to small-town catchment areas, while 13 are located in areas without urban areas (Figure 3).

**Figure 3.** Location of sample settlements by groups of settlements.

An overview of the 50 entries in the Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition was necessary to analyse development strategies. (During the analysis, the results of the settlement groups were evaluated in general and separately according to the evaluation criteria.) The analysis of the tender participants in 2005–2019 used its tender documents and evaluation results. Based on these, the intervention's justification, effectiveness and quality had to be assessed for all thematic areas; they could be rated as poor, average or exemplary. The evaluation was performed with a value on a scale of 0–10 points per subject area. (The panel of experts has been scoring the applications since the 2017 competition, before which the grading was based on an oral evaluation by the committee members. Applications before 2017 in the absence of a score were evaluated based on written application materials and personal experience).

According to the critiques, the interventions of each village by thematic area were considered successful if they were exemplary in all respects—justification, effectiveness, quality—and the development strategy was successful if exemplary interventions were implemented in all thematic areas.

Following the analysis of village renewal strategies, we analysed the village surveys in Hungary (at the national level), with a particular focus on land use. In the analysis, the methods of five nationwide surveys, which faithfully reflect the settlement population of the given period, were listed, emphasizing the methodological changes of the individual surveys and the modification of the cluster-forming variables of the settlement groups defined by the surveys.

#### **3. Results**

#### *3.1. Strategic Priorities Based on the Results of the Hungarian Village Renewal Award*

Our research focused on which areas the villages had hoped to develop in recent decades, which areas they had focused on, and what thematic programs they had set to develop the village.

The detailed analysis covered the applications of the 50 settlements that participated in the Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition, which were examined primarily based on their role in the settlement network and the emphasis of their development strategy.

The exact names of the thematic programs are presented in Section 1.2, and for the sake of simplicity and transparency, these programs will be referred to as follows:


Examining the applications of the 50 villages, it became clear that the settlements carried out improvements following several priorities. However, the question arose as to whether there is a common feature between the different development programs and strategies or if the presented villages are independent examples of successful developments.

As the characteristics of the development strategies and the emphasis on the individual thematic areas within the strategy are greatly influenced by the role of the village in the settlement network, the results of the villages were examined into three settlement groups presented in Section 2.

The analysis of the development strategies of the settlements for the nine thematic areas of the Village Renewal Award competition presented above confirmed the assumption that the role played in the settlement network significantly influences the choice of the development strategy. The standard features of the strategies separated according to the settlement groups have shown that, depending on the role played in the settlement network, some topic areas are given more emphasis, and others become completely insignificant and unjustified.

The results of the 50 sample settlements and the emphasis programs of the development strategies are shown in Figure 4. The percentage values according to the vertical axis of the graph show the proportion of successful settlements in terms of the topic area within their settlement category. The horizontal axis shows the application topics.

**Figure 4.** Development emphases depending on the role of the settlement network.

Based on the results, our main findings on thriving areas of village development are as follows:


#### *3.2. International Outlook*

Reviewing the applications in Hungary, the question may arise as to how the villages operate in the rest of Europe. In the case of European competitors, the analysis based on the settlement groups used in Hungarian villages is not necessarily expedient, as the administrative system of the settlement network in Hungary is completely different from the legal regulation of the Austrian, German, Swiss or Polish settlement system (administrative structure). In addition to the legal framework, the social differences of the last century and the natural geographical factors are also striking. At the same time, it is worth examining the results of some European competitors, because although we cannot obtain a comprehensive picture, we can gain insight into the general processes of wood-tree development.

To draw a parallel between the Hungarian applicants and the villages participating in the last European Village Renewal Award [48] we selected five German and Polish villages. We reviewed their applications: Dobkow (Lower Silesia, Poland) [51], Giersleben (Saxony-Anhalt, Germany) [52], Kadlub (Opole, Poland) [53], Rammenau (Saxony, Germany) [54] and Steinbach (Thuringia, Germany) [55]. A common feature of the villages

was that they were located in the socialist bloc before the regime change. (Thus, in essence, their starting position is somewhat similar to that of Hungarian villages.)

Among the villages, according to a similar starting point presented above, further commonalities can be discovered:


Examining the development processes, the unique characteristics of each village can also be found, in addition to the standard features.

Located in Sudetenland, Dobkow (Poland) has based its development on local resources, highlighting all the elements of the project to present natural heritage: environmental awareness and harmony with nature in all areas of life (volcanic study trail, lectures emphasizing the importance of biodiversity, ecotourism developments, etc.). The other development priorities preserve built and cultural values: the renovation and recycling of typical buildings in Sudetenland (restaurant, accommodation, museum and education centre) and the preservation and passing on of traditions (beekeepers, potters, camps and meetings of traditional artists). These goals can be framed by a program called the "open-air eco-museum," in which local values can be visited through a village tour [51].

Kadlub's (Poland) primary strategic goal is to improve local care and expand local services through job creation and institutional development and a conscious community building that strengthens local identity. To achieve this, emphasis was placed on measures to set up businesses and create jobs; expand and improve the quality of services provided by educational, health and social institutions; expand the range of leisure activities; intensify intergenerational programs; and create new community opportunities and spaces (sports halls, cultural and leisure centres, outdoor sports centres and event space) [53].

Similar goals have been set in Giersleben (Germany), from which any major city is easily accessible due to excellent road and cable car transport. The main goals in the village are to increase the local standard of living (high-speed fibre-optic internet, quality social care for all ages, expand leisure activities), to ensure energy independence (wind farm), and to "save" the school as a community organizing force and development, strengthening the local civil society and strengthening gentle tourism [52].

Rammenau (Germany) has traditionally been an agricultural settlement, but this has only been a partial part of the main elements of the development strategy, because agriculture here (also) provides a livelihood for only a few people. (At the same time, agriculture also played an essential role in energy production through the built-in biogas plant.) The main development goals of Rammenau are job creation (an economic area for small businesses has been created on the outskirts of the village), strengthened tourism (fishpond, baroque castle, renovation of the built heritage—blacksmith shop, prison utilization), creation of community spaces, community buildings and active civil life (civil house, village house event space, community space in the old smithy, many nongovernmental organizations, regular events, etc.) as well as continuous education of environmental awareness from childhood and the use of renewable energy sources [54].

Steinbach (Germany), located in the mountains of Thuringia, has traditionally been an industrial village (there was a knife factory employing 1000 people in the GDR); thus, they had to face even more severe social and employment problems after the change of regime: 90% unemployment, 25% migration of the population, cessation of local shops and services. Therefore, the village has set up a joint development program with the neighbouring Bad Liebenstein, mainly to expand local employment (support small businesses: knife manufacture, brewery) and preserve tradition (cult of Martin Luther, a knife as a local symbol). As a high-quality locale, it focuses on the provision of health and social care1, the development of community life (creation of community spaces, events), and the expansion of tourism (baroque castle, Europe-famous car race, Martin Luther cult, Steinbach knife) [55].

Reviewing the international examples, it can be stated that there are commonalities with the strategic development priorities of the Hungarian villages. However, the differences are also apparent, and the three groups of settlements defined in the Hungarian villages do not completely stand out in international cases.

As we showed in the introductory part of the paper, all foreign villages belong to the catchment area of a medium or large city, but when evaluating the strategies—compared to grouping the results of Hungarian village development strategies—some of them carry strategic elements of depopulated areas (e.g., Dobkow, Steinbach). Moreover, in the case of other settlements, the strategic elements of small-town catchment areas dominate (e.g., local identity, community building, resource use). The local identity and local community are more important in the villages located in the metropolitan areas than in the case of the Hungarian agglomeration villages. This may be due to:


As a result of the above, the development based on independence and local society is a more vital driving force in all settlement groups than in Hungary. Thus, overall, these strategic priorities cannot be fully identified with the emphatic strategic elements of the Hungarian settlement groups.

#### *3.3. Loss of Importance of Local Resources Based on Agricultural Land Use*

The analysis of village renewal strategies in Hungary showed that (successful) developments based on agriculture and forestry as internal resources are present in only a tiny proportion of villages, with only a (smaller) share of local natural resources and land use prevailing, which determines the development priorities and strategic elements of villages. This is why we have reviewed the Hungarian village surveys of the last century and a half, focusing on the role of agriculture and forestry and the changes in the land use of villages.

During the land use surveys of the villages, it is worth reviewing the research that includes village surveys and village typifications. In Hungary, after the new millennium, these studies have mainly focused on the success of rural areas or the development of small village areas [33,37,56–58]. In addition to these, however, there are a large number of villages that either concentrated on a segment of Hungarian settlements [37,58–60] or conducted a nationwide survey [21,58,59]. It is interesting that during the typification of the villages, initially, the "external features" were decisive (morphology, size, population, form of farming), while later, they were due to the changes in the settlement network and the society, more complex indicators (living standards, nature of employment, population movement, development). Finally, village types were determined using complex statistical methods (cluster analysis, factor analysis).

In the present study, the villages were grouped in the manner defined in Section 2. Therefore, during the examination of the changes in land use, we are interested not in the changes in the village types but in the change in the classification methodology and the shifts in the development factors.

We have used five nationwide surveys of village research over the past 150 years, which are well differentiated over time. (The results of the first and second surveys were

processed together.) Therefore, by ranking the results of the surveys, it is possible to show with well-defined characteristics how the aspects of the classification changed during each survey.

The first two surveys examined dates back to the time of the Reformation, the first was made by András Vályi2 at the turns of the 18th and the 19th centuries [61], and the second Elek Fényes<sup>3</sup> in the middle of the 19th century [62]. Both works present the individual villages at the settlement level, giving a detailed description of the contemporary land uses, the quality of the land, and the crops grown.

In the 19th century, the natural endowments determined the possibilities of farming and thus of the given settlement. (In addition to the social and agricultural characteristics, the description of the villages in the examined villages highlights the location of only one castle, castle, inn or particular function.) Based on the works by András Vályi and Elek Fényes, the villages are considered as forest, meadow, vineyard, and livestock, with the simultaneous indication of unique local conditions (e.g., tobacco growing, vegetable growing, beekeeping, presence of a swell, castle or castle).

It was quite a long time, more than 100 years, until the date of the following nationallevel survey, which also determined the territorial characteristics, after the geographical dictionary (country description) of Elek Fényes in 1851. However, before the Second World War, the development of villages was still determined by agricultural conditions; thus, we cannot discuss more severe land use changes at the settlement level. (From Ferenc Erdei in 1940 entitled *Hungarian Village*, in his book, he separated the villages according to their agricultural ownership and social forms. In this idea, social aspects also appear in the grouping of villages. However, in Erdei's work, the village is still a type of settlement related to agriculture (peasant farming), and the typical peasant village is the "type of village that is usually cited as a village" [63]).

This situation was changed by the socialist takeover, which placed agriculture on a new footing and emphasised changes in the settlement network through industrial relocation and the reorganisation of agriculture. As a result, the status of settlements has entirely changed in many cases, and the results of this process are well illustrated by the work of Pál Beluszky4 and Tamás T. Sikos<sup>5</sup> [64].

The authors aimed in their book (titled *Village types in Hungary*, from 1982) to examine the villages at the national level, assess and classify the condition of the villages, and differentiate the types of villages. (Regarding the changes in local resources and energy in the villages, despite the long time that has elapsed, the data from 1851 and 1982 can be considered successive periods in our study.) Therefore, the method of cluster analysis was chosen for the classification, during which eight groups of factors were identified:


Based on the cluster analysis, the distinction between settlement types is based primarily on the occupational structure and on population change and/or settlement size. As a result of the typification, the research distinguishes seven village types (25 clusters) (Figure 5, Table 1).

**Figure 5.** Types of rural settlements in Hungary, 1982 [64].

In the characterization of village types (subtypes), the dominant economic sector plays a significant role, as shown by the names of the individual clusters (agricultural nature, agro-mixed functions, industrial municipalities, industrial-mixed and industrial-tertiary employment). It can be seen that the focus has shifted from land use to employment.

The next stage of our study is the analysis of the same pair of authors in 2007, the main aim of which is to present the changes of villages and the reclassification of village types at the beginning of the third millennium, especially after (and as a result of) the regime change [21]. As a result, the criteria for village classification also changed, during which seven main points and 27 variables were defined, as follows (number of variables in parentheses):


As a result of the cluster analysis, the classification of village types is based on the role played in the settlement network, the labour market situation and the population change. The authors again distinguish seven village types (and 25 clusters) (Figure 6, Table 2).


**Table 1.** The name of the types of rural settlements in Hungary, 1982 [64].

**Figure 6.** Village types in Hungary, 2007 [21].


**Table 2.** The name of the village types in Hungary, 2007 [21].

Due to the socio-economic processes that took place after the regime change and the significant transformation of the settlement network, the emphasis on the separation of new village types is no longer on land use or employment stratification, but rather on demographic processes and the labour market situation. It can be stated that while earlier agricultural (later industrial) analysis dominated the clusters, after the turn of the millennium, the strength of the role of the residential function is the most crucial difference.

The last element of our analysis of the change in local resources is the national settlement cluster commissioned by the Ministry of the Interior, which was created in 2019 following the work of Miklós Illésy, Judit T. Nagy and Róza Számadó [65]. In this analysis, the authors divided the settlements into two groups: settlements with a population of over 2000 and less, and the statistical analyses were performed separately for the settlement groups. Cluster analysis was chosen as the classification method, using eight categories and 23 variables, of which the success criteria were cluster-forming variables.

The variables fell into the following categories:


The cluster analysis resulted in three clusters for each settlement with less than 2000 inhabitants. The study summarizes the settlements with less than 2000 inhabitants under the collective name "small settlement", of which 2372 settlements belong to the clusters, and 781 settlements belong to the clusters with more than 2000 inhabitants. The names of the clusters are as follows (in brackets the symbol of the cluster and the number of settlements included):


Clusters are defined by the dynamics of the development of settlements. In addition to their role in the dominant network of settlements, economic, social and cultural aspects are essential. As a result, the results of the land use characteristics are minimal (almost non-existent).

#### **4. Discussion**

Based on the examination of the tender results of the Hungarian Village Renewal Award, we found that a close correlation can be observed between the development emphases and the distance from the centre settlements of the settlement network.

The conscious development of community buildings and local identity plays an increasingly important role in moving away from big cities. Accordingly, the development of these areas is more successful than in the villages of depopulated areas (and small towns). However, this is not the case in the settlements of the metropolitan agglomeration because, although financial resources are available, due to the different needs of a diverse society, in most cases, we cannot speak of a classical community; thus, in many cases, in short, they focus on improving the quality of life. A similar trend is valid for the utilization of network connections. This is not strong in any of the settlement groups. However, the majority of network connections typically represents the connection to the centre settlement (villages have only fewer network connections); thus, it is clear that small settlements closer to the nodes of the settlement network are more active in using these opportunities. The strengthening of local society and local identity is present with great emphasis everywhere when examining international examples. Therefore, it is not valid in the studied countries that this is less important in the vicinity of big cities.

In the study of village renewal strategies, the loss of space for developments based on agriculture and natural resources was noticeable; thus, we examined which factors were emphasized in previous research to determine the types of villages and which development elements became cluster-forming variables. It has become clear that the role of (agricultural) land use is becoming less and less important over time. One hundred fifty years ago, settlements were defined by their status and land use; thus, land use was the basis for grouping in the surveys. In the 20th century, agriculture surveys were first reduced to a "yes/no" question and were then refined into a weightless variable.

Examining the variables (and clusters) of the surveys, it can be stated that the importance of the previously decisive role of land use (initially agricultural and later industrial) in the life and development of villages was taken by the proximity of employment, the role of settlement networks and network priorities. In all this, it can be traced that among the variables of the national surveys analysed in our surveys, more and more indicators have emerged that have analysed the economy and development (or success) of the village.

Overall, we found that the choice of the settlement development strategy is greatly influenced by the situation of the settlement network, the available (internal and external) resources and the internal motivation. Different settlement development strategies can both lead to success, but the role of the settlement network fundamentally influences the opportunities. For example, while the villages of large urban agglomerations and small-town catchment areas can be successful with the proper use of situational energies, a successful development project based on internal resources can stand out from similar settlements. Conversely, settlements have to face unfavourable settlement processes in depopulated areas. This is because the implementation of a successful development strategy in these villages and the realization of favourable development dynamics must always be based on internal resources. That is why in the latter group of settlements many so-called "separate" development strategies and, in the absence of other options, agricultural-based (or other local resource-based) developments are still of strategic importance.

The novelty of our research is that, regardless of the current state of the villages, we grouped the villages based on the goals and priorities of the development strategies. While some of the previous studies sought to examine the situation of villages and possibly typify them, others examined the success of small settlements by examining a smaller group of settlements. In the present research, we focused on defining strategic priorities depending on the settlement network situation.

#### **5. Conclusions**

Our article wanted to examine the village development strategies and analyse and evaluate the strategic directions, primarily through the examples of Hungarian villages that participated in the Hungarian Village Renewal Award competition. To understand the objectives of the village development strategies, it was essential to take into account the changes in the Hungarian settlement network and the changed village roles, as well as to become acquainted with the most important goals of the Hungarian and European Village Renewal Award and the competition qualification system. Therefore, we carried out its research by analysing the applications of 50 Hungarian villages, examining how each element of the village renewal strategy relates to the settlement network's role and the distance from the centre settlement.

A significant result of our research was the definition of three groups of settlements according to the position of the villages in the settlement network. After analysing the groups, we found that the villages set different development priorities in terms of the role of the settlement network. Therefore, the villages of each settlement group have a strategy based on different development directions. In the vicinity of large- and mediumsized cities, which are the focal points of the settlement network, development areas for improving the quality of life (e.g., quality building stock, socio-cultural life) dominate, and employment is the most critical area in urban areas, but also strengthening local identity and community building.

Our studies have highlighted the role of agricultural land use in village development strategies. Although agriculture is still an essential aspect of the development of depopulated areas, it is worth considering that the agricultural land is a significant development priority in only a group of villages, serving an increasingly small section of society.

The main goal of our research was to help the villages to survive, renew and develop through the analysis of strategies. To this end, we examined in detail the development measures and strategies of the villages. By arranging the information, we tried to achieve a result that could be used in practice. Based on these, we recommend:


**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, S.B. and Á.S.; Data curation, S.B.; Investigation, S.B.; Methodology, S.B. and Á.S.; Resources, S.B. and Z.S.; Writing—original draft, S.B. and Z.S.; Writing review & editing, Á.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Data Availability Statement:** The applications of the Hungarian and the European Village Renewal Awards are available digital format by the authors.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **Appendix A. Motto and Winners of the European Village Renewal Competitions**

**Table A1.** Motto and winners of each competition.


#### **Notes**


#### **References**


**Jelena Živanovi´c Miljkovi´c 1,\*, Vesna Popovi´c <sup>2</sup> and Aleksandra Gaji´c <sup>1</sup>**


**Abstract:** Food security is becoming an increasingly important issue worldwide, and in this respect, urban agriculture has a substantial role. Nonetheless, pressure for agricultural land conversion and fragmentation is highest in peri-urban areas. In order to respond to these challenges, urban farmers use different adaptation strategies and business models, including product differentiation based on geographical indications (GIs). The paper considers land take (LT) issues in Futog, the settlement of the City of Novi Sad, registered as the GI of *Futog cabbage*, as an illustrative example which reflects the attitude of land use policy and planning in Serbia towards the specific conditions and requirements that growers of GIs have to meet. The purpose of this study is to identify the role of urban land use planning within LT processes and the implications this has on urban agriculture, accordingly. The supporting framework used for quantifying LT in the period 2000–2018 was CORINE Land Cover (CLC), specifically Urban Atlas (UA) datasets for two time series between 2012 and 2018. Since a significant part of agricultural land registered as a GI in Futog was planned for conversion into construction land, the authors conclude that current forms of land use planning in Serbia are not adequate to ensure the protection of either urban agriculture or GIs. Given that there is a clear correlation between GI products and their place of origin, this study recognized the necessary inclusion of all protected agricultural areas, as well as areas with GIs, into legislation binding for land use planning in Serbia, with limitations in terms of new LT.

**Keywords:** land take; urban agriculture; land use planning; zoning; GI products

#### **1. Introduction**

Faced with rapid urbanization, changing consumer preferences, and a series of financial, health, environmental, and political crises that affect global food supply chains, those in academia, urban planners, and decision-makers are becoming increasingly aware of the multiple benefits that urban agriculture provides in strengthening urban resilience and global sustainability [1–3].

Urban sprawl is considered to be the main result of land use changes due to urbanization in Europe [4]. It specifically describes the scattered development of settlements in the peri-urban area [5] and it is quantified by the monitoring of land take (LT). Mainstream European policies on land use suggests that all EU-members should stop the process of LT by 2050 ("no net land take") (i.e., to prevent construction and soil sealing at the expense of agricultural land, forestry and other natural areas), otherwise, any new LT will need to be compensated by the reclamation of artificial land [6]. It is recommended that resources are allocated in order to better protect agricultural soils [7]. On the other hand, Europe is expected to be home to nearly 85% of urban residents by 2050 [8], and its sustainable development will increasingly depend on the successful management of urban growth and rural–urban linkages, which is in line with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); indeed, Goal 11 aims to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable [8,9].

**Citation:** Živanovi´c Miljkovi´c, J.; Popovi´c, V.; Gaji´c, A. Land Take Processes and Challenges for Urban Agriculture: A Spatial Analysis for Novi Sad, Serbia. *Land* **2022**, *11*, 769. https://doi.org/10.3390/land 11060769

Academic Editors: Víctor Hugo González-Jaramillo and Antonio Novelli

Received: 31 March 2022 Accepted: 19 May 2022 Published: 24 May 2022

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

Concerns over food security have given rise to various initiatives for applying land use planning to protect urban agriculture from urbanization processes [10]. For that purpose, zoning ordinances are used as a typically regulatory mechanism to minimize conflicting uses on agricultural land [11–19]. In order to match various urban pressures on farming, and to strengthen its resilience, different urban farming business models are promoted [20–23], including product differentiation based on geographical origin [24,25]. Urban planners and municipalities in several European countries developed strategies to protect urban, and particularly commercial, peri-urban agriculture in metropolitan areas. [26,27]. Researchers confirmed the existence of a zone of urban farming that is covered by some forms of controlled urbanization, running from the Benelux countries to Italy, which is capable of responding to new societal demands regarding food and agriculture [28]. At the same time, urban farming in Eastern Europe lags behind its western counterpart in the sense that farming, which is developed, is also "non-urban adapted" [28] (p. 17).

The above conclusion could also be valid for Serbia, particularly in terms of agriculture in its largest metropolitan area, which consists of Belgrade and Novi Sad functional urban areas (FUAs). This metropolitan area encompassed 5032 km2, and had an estimated population of 2.1 million inhabitants in 2020 [29]. Urban agriculture has an important role in supplying the Belgrade–Novi Sad metropolitan area with fresh food for city markets, the food industry, and for export [30]. Intensive, non-urban adapted crop production and livestock farms, modern orchards, and the food industry, adjusted to the mass market, still comprise the sector's backbone; however, an increasing number of usually smaller and medium-sized farmers adopted (a mix of) different urban farming business models, and they use the higher purchasing power of urban consumers for direct marketing and the sale of value-added foods, often in combination with on-farm services [22,31]. Recently, the intention to renew and strengthen the 2010 project of supplying Belgrade with healthy and fresh food by placing Belgrade Green Ring farms around Belgrade has been announced [32].

At the same time, urban agriculture and farmers are facing strong LT pressures throughout the metropolitan area. The focus of this paper is on the recent LT case within Novi Sad FUA, with the purpose to identify the role of urban land use planning within LT processes and the implications on urban agriculture, drawing on Futog, the settlement in the peri-urban area of Novi Sad, as a case study. The urban agriculture of Novi Sad FUA is very specific, regarding the variety of food and drink products with GI protection in its territory. The Futog area is distinctive due to the production of *Futog cabbage*, which is a vegetable that is registered with the Appellations of Origin (AO) of Serbian Intellectual Property Office (IPO). Taking into account such a particularity of the study area, the objective of the research is to examine the ability of land use policy and planning in Serbia to comply with the specific conditions and requirements of the GI product urban growers. The leading questions are: in what manner, and to what extent, do urban land use planning practices influence LT, and how is that reflected in a specific urban agricultural environment. In order to present the research framework, the next section is dedicated to reviewing the literature that is relevant to the LT and urban agriculture analysis.

#### **2. Literature Review**

Worldwide, researchers are attempting to describe the phenomenon of the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses. Land use change due to urbanization processes is one of the most common phenomena and one of the main drivers of global environmental change. In that sense, due to urbanization affecting Europe, urban sprawl is recognized as one of the most important types of land use change [4], and it is related to the physical pattern of the low-density unplanned expansion of large urban areas, mainly into the surrounding agricultural areas [33].

The impacts of urban sprawl are often quantified by monitoring land take<sup>1</sup> (LT) or soil sealing indicators [35], and across the European Union, those indicators are monitored by the European Environment Agency2 since 2004. LT is the loss of agricultural land, forests, and other semi-natural and natural land to urban and other artificial land development [33], which manifests as an increase in artificial surfaces over a time period [36]. Precise methodology for quantifying urban land take is still subject to scientific debate, mainly because the variability of the term "urban agglomeration", which can have different geographic boundaries depending on the scales (e.g., the city proper, the metropolitan area, urban cluster or the urban agglomeration) [37]. LT in EU28 was 539 km<sup>2</sup> p. annum, whereas the overall annual loss of undeveloped land to settlement and infrastructure development is more than tenfold the area that is cultivated again, and was observed during 2012–2018 [38].

In the context of spatial planning, LT and land consumption are, in many cases, used interchangeably, but Marquard et al. [39] suggested prioritizing the term "land take" in the EU context. Evers et al. [40] rejected terminology such as "land take" and "sprawl", concentrating instead on the (dis)advantages that divergent modes of urbanization can have for sustainability in its broadest sense3. Land use planning is considered as "sufficiently comprehensive, binding and restrictive" to contribute to a reduction of LT [34] (p. 349). There is a consensus that "spatial planning influences patterns of land use and land cover" (Couclelis, 2005 according to [41]), whereas some studies recognize land-use policies and spatial planning as a fundamental driving factor for many different land-use change processes4 [41] (p. 32).

There is a consensus that urban agriculture improves the environment, landscape, and quality of life of urban dwellers, and that it contributes to food security, employment, and social cohesion [1–3,43]. It is important for local identification and societal interaction through local products, traditional production practices, landscape protection activities and seasonal events, but on the other hand, pressures for agricultural land conversion and fragmentation are strongest in peri-urban areas [44]. Since the future for most of the global population will be urban, and as soil sealing corresponds with rapid urbanization, integration between spatial and agricultural planning policies is increasingly important for the prevention of conflict [45,46].

Traditional planning tools, such as zoning regulations, development control, urban growth boundaries and green belts, as well as other tools for land use control (development fees, infrastructure financing, financial incentives etc.) traditionally represent the main planning instruments for urban agriculture preservation [11–18]. In practice, transferable development rights programs can be implemented to address different land preservation/development objectives [47]. Planners use these market-based instruments to achieve land preservation goals, whilst tackling the issues surrounding urban sprawl [48].

Urban pressures on farming, including land competition as well as urban opportunities related to the proximity of knowledge and innovations, have promoted the development of different urban farming business models, strengthening its resilience [20–22]. Van der Schans et al. [23] identified five business strategies as an outline for innovation in urban agriculture: low cost, differentiation, diversification, the commons, and experiences. Differentiation involves high-value local, organic, or traditional foods as well as vertical integration processes in which additional value is added to a product via processing, distribution, and direct sales [23]. Value can be added to the products through GIs as well, as indications of their geographical origin and quality, or in terms of their reputation, which can be attributable to that origin [25]. Compared with diversified peri-urban agriculture that requires more flexibility in policy and planning in responding to multifunctional land use dynamics [12,49], GI products encourage the adoption of stricter, long-term land protection strategies since the land is essential for their business success [50]. It is also necessary for the state to financially support GI dynamics, design a framework for raising producers' awareness of GIs, and facilitate their collective involvement in GI governance [51].

The SDGs encourage a substantial increase in food security to achieve zero hunger and promote sustainable agriculture (SDG 2) while minimizing the conversion of undeveloped land into developed land (SDG 11). SDG 11 calls for inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities, and it covers the spatial aspect of urbanization with its indicator of land consumption. SDG target 11.3 presents the dynamics of LT per person and aims to achieve an increased rate of built-up land that does not exceed the rate of the increase in population [9]. On the

other hand, a recent extensive study suggests that built-up land change trajectories provide the basis for a better understanding of urbanization processes across the globe [52], and they indicate that progress towards SDG target 11.3 should consider changes on smaller spatial scales [Ibid.], as well as ones at the global level. One of the study's main arguments is that the process of increasing the share of the population living in urban areas, in itself, is not necessarily unsustainable from a LT point of view, because built-up land in large, small, and medium city centers is used more intensively over time [52] (p. 10).

Gardi et al. [53] proposed a methodology to quantify the impact of LT on food security at the European level, and demonstrated that LT could be an important threat to food security from a long-term perspective.

Policy makers must combine regulatory protection with positive reinforcement of farming activity to support agricultural land use [54], although land use planning occasionally fails to encourage farmers to continue their agricultural activities near urban areas, which results in the abandonment of agricultural activities [55]. Agricultural development plans can play an important role in land use management and in the promotion of the added regional value of urban agriculture; however, more integrated urban food policies are needed to recognize its cross-sectional nature [56]. Territorial governance, as a means through which spatial plans are prepared and implemented, is a complex set of interactions, rather than just broad objectives formulated into regulations and building permits related to land-change [41]; however, if local policy is unclear and regulatory frameworks for urban food production do not consider its specificities, it is likely to reduce the potential business success of urban farmers [57,58].

#### **3. Materials and Methods**

#### *3.1. Study Area*

Novi Sad is the administrative center of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina in the northern part of Serbia, the second largest city, and an important urban center in Serbia. In addition to Novi Sad, other larger settlements are located in its vicinity, and the concentration of the population is the result of urbanization processes, which have taken place in recent decades [59]. Recent studies, which include indicators such as commuting and employment, show that the urban influence of Novi Sad exceeds its administrative boundaries [60]. The FUA of Novi Sad encompasses 1892 km2 and had an estimated population of 460,737 in 2020 [29]. The utilized agriculture area covered 114,083 ha of this territory in 2018 and includes 105,298 ha of arable land, 2716 ha of orchards, 871 ha of vineyards, and 4839 ha of meadows and pastures. There were also 63,773 livestock units on the farms. Farmers on 13,399 farms realized a average standard output (SO) per farm of EUR 12,613, compared with EUR 11,379 in the Belgrade FUA, and EUR 8642 at the national level. Farms with other gainful activities achieved an average SO per farm of EUR 27,481, compared with EUR 13,096 in the Belgrade FUA, and EUR 11,116 at the national level [61]. In the northern and eastern lowland part of the area, intensive production of cereals and oilseeds dominates, and the country's largest organic dairy farm is also located there (in Curug). The peri-urban area of the city of Novi Sad is known for its production of ˇ value-added vegetables and ethno-tourist farms ("salaši"), whereas the slopes of Fruška Gora Mountain are covered by orchards and vineyards with a number of family-owned vineries on the Danube Wine Roads [30,31].

Organically produced grain and industrial crops for processing, as well as organic milk, beef, fruits, vegetables, honey, medicinal plants, and spices, have good sales prospects in the market niches of the metropolitan area [62]. The urban agriculture of the Novi Sad FUA has another specificity—several food and drink products with GI protections for its territory; for instance, Bermet, which is an aromatized wine (Serbian IPO AO, 2007, WIPO AO, 2011), Riesling from Karlovac (Serbian IPO AO, 2008) in the vine region of the Fruška Gora mountain, lime tree honey from Fruška Gora (Serbian IPO AO, 2011), carrots from Begeˇc (Serbian IPO GI, 2017), and fresh and sour cabbage from Futog (Serbian IPO AO, 2008). The latter product is from the production area which is the subject of the following case study [63].

Futog belongs to the western group of settlements of the city of Novi Sad, and after Novi Sad, it is the second largest settlement; in 2011, around 6% of the total population of the city lived there [64]. Futog develops on the alluvial terrace of the Danube River. Fertile agricultural land, plenty of water, and proximity to large metropolitan markets, makes Futog a good prospect for competitive urban agriculture (Figure 1).

**Figure 1.** Location and land cover characteristics of the study area.

The AO *Fresh and sour cabbage from Futog* was registered in 2008 by the Serbian Intellectual Property Office (IPO), and according to the decision on the registration, it is produced exclusively in the area of the cadastral municipality of Futog ("Futog atar") [63]. The first certification was carried out in 2012 and in 2014; the *Futog cabbage* production area was about 22.26 ha, with a production of 468 tons. Following certification, a significant AO-linked price increase for fresh and sour cabbage was observed in all distribution channels. Consumers, who were already familiar with the good reputation of the traditional *Futog cabbage* variety, have accepted paying a higher price for AO cabbage. Production of the AO cabbage also has positive effects on the non-AO cabbage value chains. The cabbage fair (*Kupusijada*) serves traditional dishes to visitors, which contributes to tourism development [65]. In 2020, there were 40 producers of the Futog AO cabbage, including one organic producer and one processor–producer of sour cabbage [66]. According to 2021 data, 27 producers grew certified cabbage on 35 ha [67].

#### *3.2. Data Collection, Analysis and Methodology*

CORINE Land Cover (CLC) is one of the most common land cover data sources and is widely used in spatial research across Europe. Despite many advantages and possibilities for interpretation and analysis, limitations in the application of the CLC database have also been noticed. Most of the limitations are related to the low level of detail of anthropogenic classes, which is sometimes not enough for precise modelling; for example, in models of spatial distribution concerning population, urban land use dynamics, and so on. [68–70]. This is particularly visible in small scale units (e.g., settlements), which is hard to detect as the Minimum Mapping Unit (MMU) for areal phenomena is 25 ha and the minimum width of linear elements is 100 m [39].

In this research, we used data available in Urban Atlas (UA). UA is a joint initiative of the Commission Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy and the Directorate-General for Defense Industry and Space (DEFIS), which are part of the EU Copernicus program, and they have the support of the European Space Agency and the European Environment Agency [71]. UA contains data concerning land use, which are integrated with population estimates for European cities with a population of more than 50,000 inhabitants and their gravitational areas (Functional Urban Areas–FUA). The FUA consist of a city and its commuting zone [72]. UA classification includes 27 classes arranged in 5 levels, where each of them describes different land cover. Data are grouped into five basic classes: (1) artificial surfaces; (2) agricultural areas; (3) natural and semi-natural areas; (4) wetlands; and (5) water. Currently, data are available for three time series 2006, 2012, and 2018. The layer from 2006 covered large urban zones from EU member states, whereas series 2012 and 2018 included FUA from EFTA countries, such as the West Balkans and Turkey. In addition, two layers of change are available from 2012 [71].

In comparison to CLC data, UA data have better spatial resolutions, with a focus on urban areas. UA is supplemented and enriched with additional information from various available data sources such as High-Resolution Layer (HRL), Open Street Map, Google Earth, and so on. [73]. The MMU for the UA is 0.25 ha for surface objects of class 1 and 1 ha for classes 2 to 5. It means it has a 100 times greater resolution compared to CLC datasets [74]; therefore, this dataset enables the monitoring of land use with a high level of accuracy.

In order to avoid misconceptions regarding definitions of urban agglomeration [37], this research has used boundaries for FUA in Novi Sad from the UA dataset. FUA in Novi Sad covers an area of 1892 km2, which is significantly larger than the administrative area of the city of Novi Sad. This research uses UA data in vector format for two time series, 2012 and 2018, which are available for Serbia (Figures 2 and 3). Land take is defined as the change of land from agricultural land, forests, natural and semi-natural areas, water, and wetlands to build up land in Novi Sad FUA. The analyses include aggregation of all artificial classes from the UA database at the fourth level of detail sub-classes 11100, 11210, 11220, 11230, 11240, 11300, 12100, 12210, 12220, 12230, 12300, 12400, 13100, 13300, 13400, 14100, and 14200. The list and details of all classes can be found in the UA guide [73].

**Figure 2.** Land cover for Novi Sad FUA (2012).

**Figure 3.** Land cover for Novi Sad FUA (2018).

In accordance with the SDG indicator 11.3.1, the land consumption rate is defined as "the percentage of current total urban land that was newly developed" [75]. Here, it is acknowledged that the methodology for the calculation of the land consumption rate for SDG indicator 11.3.1 is still a subject for scientific debate (cf. [39]); however, as it is sufficiently credible, we adopted the calculation [39,75] of the land take rate (LTR) as follows:

$$LTR = \frac{\ln\left(\frac{LIrb\_l + n}{LIrb\_l}\right)}{(y)}$$

where:


In addition, statistical data were used in order to obtain socio-economic structures of the farming community in Futog.

#### **4. Results**

Table 1 shows the types and proportion of land use in the Futog settlement in the period 2000–2018. Agricultural land is the most distributed land use type, and wetland and water bodies comprise the second one. As shown in Chart 1, in the period 2000–2006, forests and semi-natural areas underwent the highest levels of conversion (−63 ha), and until 2018, that was the only conversion of this land use type. In the period 2006–2012, the loss of agricultural areas underwent the highest level of conversion (−55 ha); however, when including the previous period and the increase in agricultural land, the overall loss of agricultural land was 34 ha.


**Table 1.** Land use dynamics in Futog between 2000–2018.

Source: Authors' calculation based on [76].

**Chart 1.** Land take (ha) in Futog for the period (**a**) 2000–2006; (**b**) 2006–2012.

For the period 2012–2018, CLC datasets resolution had not detected any land cover changes.

Urban plans are predominantly aimed at managing land use in urban areas in Serbia. According to the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia Article 190, urban planning is originally one of the competences of the local self-government. One of the basic instruments by which land use planning protects the environment, and also the public interest, is land use zoning. According to the umbrella law for land use planning issues (Law on planning and construction) [77], general regulation plans are to be adopted for the entire construction area of the settlement, by parts of the settlement. This is the basic regulation plan that is directly implemented by applying regulations and building rules for the entirety of the planning document. The general regulation plan, in particular, the designated building zones, contains the division of the area into separate units and zones (zoning).

Therefore, here is the analyzed General Regulation Plan (GRP) of the Futog Settlement [78] and its subsequent amendments [79], which were implemented between 2015– 2021. The basic concept of spatial development within the General Regulation Plan of the Futog Settlement creates the conditions for arranging the area of the rural settlement of Futog ("atar"), primarily as an area of agricultural production and building zones (Table 2). Agriculture is considered as a primary activity which also supports the preservation of existing forest areas (and the afforestation of new ones), pastures, ponds, reeds, and marshes, as well as the reconstruction and revitalization of ethno-tourist family farms ("salaši").


**Table 2.** Planed land use balance for the Futog settlement 2015–2021.

\* Source: elaborated by authors based on [78,79].

About 72% of the active population of Futog is employed in business, most of them in the processing industry and trade. Businesses are located within and outside the building zone of Futog, in working zones, at the entrance directions to the settlement and within single-family housing plots. For the purpose of equipping the community, expanding the building land in the rural settlement of Futog ("atar") is planned, within the area planned for businesses, in terms of entrance directions to the settlement.

In addition, for a long time, the area that was not intended for construction, particularly residential construction between the building zones of Futog, Veternik, and Novi Sad, had been taken over with the illegal construction of residential and cottage buildings; therefore, the city renounced its earlier plans, according to which, the area between the city and the closest settlements should have been preserved as agricultural land, as well as for developments that could have a regional and wider importance [80]. During 2021, an initiative for the additional expansion of building land in Futog was submitted again, with

new Amendments to the plan of the general regulation of Futog settlement [81], with planned LT volume of more than 15 ha at the expense of the agricultural land of 'atar'.

Concerning the quantification of LT in Futog in the previous period, in order to obtain measurable and comparable data, the information layers concerning land cover, obtained from the UA dataset within the administrative area of the Futog settlement, were imported into the GIS environment.

The obtained results show that in the FUA of Novi Sad, the percentage of LT is not high and counts for less than 1%. The total area of agricultural land decreased by around 1 km2 in the observed period. Forest areas show a reduction of the same levels. Similar trends are present in the Futog settlement. According to UA data for 2018, agricultural areas with arable land cover dominating the largest surfaces in the Futog settlement (81%). Artificial surfaces cover around 9% of the total settlement surface with discontinuous dense urban fabric dominating, with an average degree of soil sealing between 50–80%. These areas cover about 51% of the total artificial surfaces. Other classes (forests, natural and semi-natural areas, wetlands, and water) cover around 10% of the total settlement surface. The LTR is 0.00492, which implies that the share of urban (built-up) areas have increased by 0.5% between 2012 and 2018. These changes are mainly related to the reduction of arable land in favor of discontinuous dense urban fabric and industrial, commercial, public, military, and private units. Figure 4 illustrates land cover in the Futog settlement in 2018, together with detected land take areas. Although the observation period is not long, the results indicate the existence of the land take process in the Futog settlement.

**Figure 4.** Spatial distribution of land take in the Futog settlement for the period 2012–2018.

Regarding capacities for urban agriculture, according to the 2012 Census of Agriculture [82], 461 family farms, 6 farms of legal entities, and unincorporated enterprises in Futog, had 2346 ha of land, owned or leased, of which 2299 ha comprises a utilized agricultural area. Arable land covered 2260 ha and was being cultivated by 411 farms. Half of that arable land is used for cereals, 28% is used for industrial crops, 11% is used for vegetables, melons, and strawberries, 6% is used for potatoes, and 4% is used for fodder crops. Vegetables, melons, and strawberries were grown by 144 farmers on 248 ha of arable

land. Although 238 out of a total of 467 farmers are engaged in livestock breeding, this production is concentrated in a small number of larger farms. Food processing involved 19 farms, of which nine processed fruits and vegetables.

Cabbage and kale were the most common vegetable crops and covered 205 ha [82]. Many cabbage growers remained faithful to the native population cultivated in Futog since 1760, and it is highly valued due to the specific qualitative properties of its leaves. As seen earlier, this cabbage has a registered appellation of origin and production area that exclusively encompass the cadastral municipality of Futog [63].

#### **5. Discussion**

In Serbia, proper use of agricultural land is a task that concerns effective mechanisms for controlling the implementation of spatial planning and zoning measures [83]. Those measures should prevent the excessive conversion of fertile land to non-agricultural purposes [Ibid.]. Creating an efficient system of land resource management is among the priorities of the national agricultural policy [84]. According to the Law on soil protection [85], spatial planning, and the use of natural resources and goods in accordance with spatial, urban, and other planning documents, prevents land degradation. The Law on agricultural land [86] makes a distinction between the different uses of agricultural land in terms of its quality, and in that sense, it is forbidden to use an arable agricultural land up to the fifth cadastral class for non-agricultural purposes, except in cases where the public interest is determined by law and with compensation for land use change. On the other hand, according to the Law on planning and construction [77], agricultural land which changed into building/construction land via the planning document, can be utilized for agricultural production until the land is brought into its planned use. From the point of view of property tax, such land is construction land, and the owner of such land is obliged to pay a fee for changing the purpose of the land before issuing a building permit (developer obligations, i.e., indirect value capture).

Although agricultural land is, nominally, one of the most important natural resources in Serbia, it must be noted that in the previous period, there was a planned tendency to reduce the number of agricultural areas in the long-term, which was shown by the quantitative analysis of land planning and management at the local level [87]. According to [88], the value of construction land in the Republic of Serbia increased about 1.000 times compared with its initial, original value as agricultural or forest land; therefore, it was converted into construction land. Agricultural land is highly attractive for investors/developers, especially if it is illegal. Illegally built and undeveloped peripheral urban zones (urban sprawl) directly correlate with the conversion of agricultural land into construction land, regardless of the category and quality of soil (e.g., Bangladeš, which was one of the informal settlements in Futog) [89]. Qualitative research by Dabovi´c et al. [90] show political, institutional, and economic drivers to be the key factors for urban sprawl in Serbia between 1990–2000, and in that sense, the role of urban and regional land use planning is seen as enabling urban development. Decisions that initiated the processes of land cover changes were always passed by the top governing authority [91] (p. 49). Due to the fact that over the past three centuries, artificial land cover growth has proven to be very stable, the prospect for further growth of artificial cover is expected to continue at the expense of agricultural land cover [91].

Generally, land use planning is considered as a major tool to protect farmland and to limit urban sprawl [10]. Traditional land use planning tools, such as zoning regulations, help to determine the function of properties in specific locations, for industrial, residential, commercial use, and so on. Urban agriculture, and even food ordinances, are seen as appropriate for local level regulations [19], and it closely relates to land use planning and zoning at a municipal level [92]; therefore, planning instruments have to be in line with the requirements of multifunctional agriculture, such as agricultural protection areas and the designation of cultural values to urban agriculture and local food [58].

With the adoption of planning documents, the value of land often changes tenfold, and the change in value occurs on the basis of one public authority act. It has been discussed that zoning regulations may increase urbanization pressure and the land speculation in the farmlands, where land use restrictions are not so rigid [14]. The public sector does not necessarily benefit from the fact that agricultural land is changed for housing, business, and other activities that are not in the domain of public interest; however, it will nevertheless lead to an increase in land value of ten or more times. Some tools for overcoming the speculative behavior that increases land prices are offered in practice, such as various forms of monetary compensation and conservation easements [93]. Using a zoning system, development rights can be transferred from so-called "sending areas" that are less desirable for development from a public-policy perspective, to designated areas for development which are so-called "receiving areas", with proper payment to the landowners of sending areas for the sale of their properties' development rights [48]. Nonetheless, future research is still needed to address innovative planning instruments which correspond to the needs of peri-urban farmers and city dwellers [93].

Differentiation strategies in urban agriculture involve high-value local, organic, or traditional foods, including those with GIs as indications of the product's geographical origin and qualities or a reputation due to that origin [23,25]. The origin-linked quality characteristics and cultural significance was one of the main arguments of the applicant status of the Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) of the "Lea Valley cucumber" in Greater London, 2011 [24]. The importance of the GI product for the local economy and identity, stems from the complementarity (as opposed to competition) between the production of the GI item and other activities [94], the role of local public authorities in facilitating synergy, and the balance of power between producers and other local stakeholders [65], all of which are crucial factors for GI outcomes; however, the issue of land management comes first, as the production of GI foods is based on precisely defined land areas, which, therefore, need long-term protection [51]. The strategies that protect urban and peri-urban agriculture in metropolitan areas are developed in several European countries, such as the case with the Sabadell and Baix Llobregat agricultural parks near Barcelona, Spain [26], and the Agricultural Park of South Milan, Italy [27]. In Almere, the Netherlands' urban planning gave agriculture a key position in the development of a large-scale peri-urban area, by reserving (at least) 51% of the individual plots for peri-urban agriculture, and by implementing the rule of self-organization, which attracted new residents (and new farmers) [95]. On the other hand, a study that covered urban regions in Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium prove that although protected by spatial planning tools, peri-urban farmlands are not yet recognized as an urban food security strengthening factor [96].

Contrary to the previous point, there is the example of Futog. Farmers in Futog are dissatisfied with the attitude of the local administration with regard to agricultural land, especially land designated for GI production, when it comes to its conversion into construction land. More specifically, a significant part of the agricultural land of Futog "atar", including land registered for AO cabbage production, was converted into construction land, with amendments made to the General Regulation Plan of the Futog settlement [78]. As a result, farmers were faced with multiple increases in property tax in 2018. In the case of LT in Futog, according to the urban land management program [97] conducted by the administration of the city of Novi Sad, in accordance with the provisions of the Law on planning and construction [77], the market value of construction land is about 125 times higher than the price of agricultural land; however, the capitalization of the construction land's increased value (as a result of public investment in infrastructure), occurred without taxes being levied [89].

Extended nationwide, farmers' complaints were accepted by the Law on amendments to the Law on property taxes [98], in terms of the amount of tax, which, according to the law, may be returned to previous levels as a result of the regulatory decisions of local authorities. The regulatory decision encompasses the classification of undeveloped construction land in the territory into agricultural land (i.e., forest land) for the purpose of determining

the property tax base if it is used exclusively for growing plants, or planting material, namely, forests (amended Art. 6a of the law); however, the decision of agricultural land conversion remained in force. Concerning the remarks of *Futog cabbage* growers about existing agricultural land in the area that is of a lesser quality, which could be used for construction instead of their own land and is instead designated for cabbage farming, the mayor simply answered—*the city must expand* [99].

The new amendments to the plan of general regulation of the Futog settlement [79] is still in the draft phase, but based on the material available to the public in the first phase of public participation, the plan covers the area outside the building zone (i.e., on the agricultural land of "atar"), where business and commercial facilities are planned. In the covered area, currently, there is no built traffic infrastructure except for agricultural roads; therefore, it concerns the new agricultural LT of Futog "atar", including the land registered for AO cabbage production, which is not planned for public purposes. Here, the question arises: is it justifiable to expand commercial activities, housing, and so on, or to maintain food security and preserve GIs?

The city is indeed expanding, but as pointed out earlier, urban agricultural land registered for the production of GI products requires increased attention and institutional protection and support. Here, the role of land use policy and planning, as well as the active cooperation between public authorities and local stakeholders, come to the forefront.

#### **6. Conclusions**

The pressure on agricultural land is a common problem worldwide, especially nowadays, when all countries need to be fully aware of food security issues. The role of urban agriculture in addressing such issues is fully recognized. The main pressure is in peri-urban areas due to urban sprawl and LT, which is also the case in Serbia, particularly within the FUAs of Belgrade and Novi Sad. In the context of food security, the basic act is to ensure land fund preservation, because without agricultural land, there is no food production; therefore, it is quite justified to maintain and protect valuable areas of agricultural land in the Novi Sad FUA, especially urban farmland registered as a geographical area for GI production in Futog, which is particularly vulnerable and requires stronger monitoring and institutional protection and support.

Since the outcome of planned (i.e., planning decisions) and unplanned LT is clearly measurable, this study provides analysis of LT by using precise UA datasets for the period 2000–2018. UA datasets provided detailed insight into LT, which is not high for the Futog settlement, as it is closer to "zero" LT; however, even though land use planning is seen as a factor that reduces LT, the case of the Futog settlement shows the opposite. It seems as though agricultural land is "given away" instead of "taken", because current planning documentation affirms new LT. If land is not designated for agricultural use, farmers could be unmotivated for long-term investment and could even stop cultivating produce. Such a scenario is only supported by a consequent increase in property taxes. Although many studies acknowledge that peri-urban agriculture has important potential for food security, urban planning in Serbia does not take into account such potential. This leads to the conclusion that current forms of land use planning are not adequate to ensure the protection of either urban agriculture or GIs. At the same time, neither adaptation strategies nor business models based on GIs in Futog are strong enough to prevent planned LT, nor can they limit the total extent of designated building zones.

Based on the key findings regarding LT issues and agricultural land loss, the following principles for land use planning solutions and recommendations have been identified: to direct LT to land that is of marginal importance for agriculture; to stop LT for economic and socio-cultural needs, except for national interests of high priority [100]; and to identify areas with high quality agricultural land (protected agricultural areas) and include them into planning documents as "zero" LT areas. It is necessary to include all protected agricultural areas, as well as areas with GIs, into binding legislation for land use planning. Adhering to previously mentioned guidelines will bring limitations to the planning process itself in terms of new LT. Supported by municipal land use planning policies, using the agricultural protection zoning ordinances, transferable development rights based on tax incentives, and minimum density value might be a tool and recommendation for both Serbian legislative and land use planning practice. Future research of these issues is fully needed, because both urban development and GI prevention in Serbia has importance, and in that sense, this research modestly contributes.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization J.Ž.M. and V.P.; methodology, J.Ž.M. and A.G.; software, A.G.; formal analysis, J.Ž.M.; investigation J.Ž.M. and V.P.; resources, V.P. and A.G.; data curation, V.P. and A.G.; writing—original draft preparation, J.Ž.M., V.P. and A.G.; writing—review and editing, J.Ž.M., visualization, J.Ž.M., V.P. and A.G. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.

**Acknowledgments:** Research was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (MESTD RS) (contract on the implementation and financing of scientific research work of the scientific research organization in 2022, no. 451-03-68/2022- 14/20006–IAUS; and 451-03-68/2022-14 of 17.01.2022–IEP).

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **Notes**


#### **References**


## *Article* **Territorial Prospective to Sustainability: Strategies for Future Successful of Water Resource Management on Andean Basins**

**Christian Mera-Parra 1,2,\*, Priscilla Massa-Sánchez 1,3, Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso 1,4 and Pablo Ochoa-Cueva 1,5**


**Abstract:** In Latin America, water resource management in some areas is difficult when all parts of a system are not considered (including its dynamism). Therefore, it becomes necessary to prepare instruments that facilitate management using a comprehensive approach. This study aimed to develop a methodology that allows one to conduct a prospective analysis of water management over delimited territories. The Zamora Huayco basin was chosen as the study area. This work included a survey of physical-natural, socioeconomic, and political-institutional variables, as well as a system structural analysis. Also, the generation of future scenarios and the strategic and tactical orientation for the integrated management of water resources. The results show that, of the 23 variables used, 19 were classified as key system variables. Most of the variables had strong impacts on each other, but at the same time these were highly receptive to changes. The behavior of change, proposed for the different uses and land cover in the basin for 2029, was considered as the objective scenario, highlighting the gain in forest areas and shrub vegetation. The strategic plans proposed in this methodology consider the structuring and collecting information in a single repository, creating communication channels between stakeholders and decision-makers.

**Keywords:** integrated water resources management; territory management; future scenarios; prospective analysis; decision support system

#### **1. Introduction**

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) encourages the coordinated acquisition and handling of water resources, with the participation of diverse stakeholders, from those related to natural water storage to end users, in order to develop economic and social welfare without risking vital ecosystems sustainability [1–3]. In this approach, the foresight techniques application has gained popularity, since it considers the most probable changes of a system and established a strategic plan to achieve a desirable future, as well as precautionary measures to control this transition [1,4–6].

Water consumption has grown exponentially worldwide since the previous decade, which is linked to population growth and economic development. This has caused problems associated with competition for its use and has affected the supply ecosystems [1,7]. Until the end of the last century, water management in the world focused mainly on meeting demand [8,9]. Also, the availability of water was apparently sufficient, and it was not necessary to analyze in depth all of the aspects related to its management. However,

**Citation:** Mera-Parra, C.; Massa-Sánchez, P.; Oñate-Valdivieso, F.; Ochoa-Cueva, P. Territorial Prospective to Sustainability: Strategies for Future Successful of Water Resource Management on Andean Basins. *Land* **2022**, *11*, 1100. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11071100

Academic Editor: Guangju Zhao

Received: 20 June 2022 Accepted: 11 July 2022 Published: 18 July 2022

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

the scenario of global water stress reached in recent times, with a supply that decreases over to a growing demand, raises the search for new management mechanisms for water governance [10] since the traditional, fragmented and sectoral approach, is no longer valid [11,12].

Latin America has large reserves of fresh water in its territory, as it concentrates 31% of the planet's sources. However, over many significant supply areas exist conflicts between stakeholders, so, water resources sustainable exploitation turns difficult, situation related to several investigators [2,13,14]. Consequently, the use of different methods and instruments that facilitate a coordinated management has increased. In particular, for water use planning, major advancements have been developed in prospective techniques through structural analysis for decision-making, such as those carried out by [1,15].

Structural analysis is a prospective method. Its objective is to determine the main influencing and dependent variables (that is, the key variables for the evolution of the system). After listing the variables, its relation is searched among each other, and the scenarios are built. These scenarios are essentially the combination of variables and its change. The most common change scenarios prepared in an academic or research context, are the negative, positive or objective, and tendential. The negative scenario is related to the worst change over the system. The positive or objective scenario is the desirable future of the system, and the tendential scenario groups together the predicted change in each variable. All of these scenarios are developed based on expert criteria [16,17].

Within territorial prospective methodology, the generation of future scenarios is reached by identifying and classifying the relationships between different variables that characterize a system. This is the central objective of the whole process since it allows synthesize a system through the definition of key variables, and with them, propose hypotheses of change. With the combination of hypotheses of change, different scenarios are built up. One must be selected as a desirable, at which time finally the strategies to achieve it can be detailed. Some application examples exist, although their use in IWRM is limited. Therefore, the current study is based on the methodology developed by [17], for territorial management modified for water resource management.

Ref. [1] conducted out a structural analysis of the water resource management system in the Nenetzingo river basin (Mexico). They identify and classify the system variables and give a strategic orientation to the management of water resources within the basin. They used the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis, but made-up modifications to the original method. Nevertheless, the variables used did not contain actual data of the basin, neither in current nor future conditions. A total of 49 relevant variables of the system were identified, along with 22 key variables.

Analogously, ref. [15], had the objective of investigate the methodology associated with the generation of strategic scenarios within a hydrographic basin. They integrated the theories of structural analysis, actor analysis and morphological analysis oriented to water resource management, highlighting the importance of considering the social, economic, and environmental dynamics within the territory, they worked with 11 variables for structural analysis. This study was conducted in the hydrographic basin of the Ararandeua river (Brazil), which is characterized by having a high rate of conflicts over water use.

Ref. [4] applied the MICMAC method, in order to identify the structure of key variables for environmental management in La Concordia (Ecuador). Also identified the denotative variables to intervene in the system. Similarly, the authors of [18] identified key variables in the Ruta del Oro (Colombia) regional system, conducted a MICMAC analysis, and developed planning scenarios.

The watershed used as the study area, in the proposed methodology is the Zamora Huayco (ZH) river basin. This basin has many social, economic, and political particularities, which together to specific natural conditions, generate a highly complex system. Under the conditions described above, nonassertive policies could inhibit the proper management and conservation of water resources.

Special attention must be paid to developing approaches for water management among stakeholders and decision-makers. Through guiding actions that channel safeguarding hydrological services and seeking to improve the living conditions of communities located within the hydrographic basin [14,19]. The policies must be linked with the study and monitoring of natural resources as an aid to decision-making [11]. According to this perspective, it is necessary to represent a system in all its dimensions and that includes all of the variables related to an efficient water resource management through a strategic plan to achieve it. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a methodology that allows one to conduct prospective analysis of water management systems such as watersheds, based chiefly on the phases proposed by [17].

Firstly, a survey of physical-natural, socioeconomic, and political-institutional variables was carried out, along with the analysis of the relationship between them. Then, future scenarios were generated, appending landscape management and water resource management. Based on an objective scenario, possible strategic guidelines were detailed to reach it.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

#### *2.1. Study Area*

The Zamora Huayco (ZH) basin has 3806.52 ha, and is located in the inter-Andean region of the Loja province in southern Ecuador between the geographic coordinates 4◦04 03–3◦59 42 S and 79◦11 54–79◦07 35 W (Figure 1). The elevation ranges of this basin are from 3380 to 2560 m asl, and its average slope is 0.65 m/m.

**Figure 1.** Location map of ZH basin.

The basin's climate is cold temperate mesothermal [20], characterized by an average annual temperature between 12 ◦C and 18 ◦C and average annual precipitation of

1047 mm. The wet season occurs from December to May and the dry season from June to November [21].

Natural vegetation predominates in the basin, although since 1976, the basin's forests have decreased by 19.3% [22]. Also, within the ZH basin, there are two water catchments for potabilization that supply approximately 50% of the demand of the city of Loja with 450 l/s [23].

The buffer zone of the Podocarpus National Park (PNP) is located in the upper zone of ZH [24]. The PNP has a strong agricultural, livestock and urban pressure in the surrounding valleys, mainly in its western limits [25], including the Loja [23]. The main productive activities in the lower zone of ZH are agriculture and cattle raising [26,27].

#### *2.2. Prospective Analysis*

In this research, a methodology for the systematic characterization of a watershed and the generation of future scenarios was developed. It is focused on the assurance of ecosystem services, to the current and futures natural conditions. To identify key variables, a cross impacts matrix was applied [28], but using a different scale than the traditional one. Also, a clustering method was applied to classify the variables and identify the key ones; this procedure is detailed in the flowchart in Figure 2.

**Figure 2.** Flowchart showing the prospective analysis.

Different stages were generated and included considering what inputs can help us propose a decision-making system that does not depend on the subjectivity or bias of human selection; but that includes the holistic perspective of watershed management, that requires the participation of stakeholders and decision-makers, within the territorial planning of the basin.

#### 2.2.1. Systematic Characterization of the Basin

A strategic diagnosis was included, which implied a combination of physical-natural, socio-economic, and political-institutional variables [17]. Socio-economic and politicalinstitutional variables encompassed details under current conditions and physical-natural variables included current and projected data to a close time horizon, so that changes can be able controlled.

The natural physical variables were obtained, for current conditions and projected to a 10-year time horizon, through remote sensing techniques and hydrological modeling; for more details you can review [24]. While, the characterization of the socio-economic variables, a survey was carried out in the basin populated area, and for the politicalinstitutional variables, an extensive bibliographic review of current regulations and laws were carried out.

#### 2.2.2. Relationships Description among Variables and Identification of Key Variables

The analysis of relationships among variables was carried out using the DELPHI methodology [29]. A survey was prepared, and experts' participation was requested. Within this survey a brief description of identified variables was included, to handle uniformity in concepts. Also included were the objective of the consultation and procedure for completing the survey.

Experts on IWRM issues from different areas such as economic and social science, hydrology, forestry, environment, agriculture, and civil engineering were selected; from the academic, both public and private. Counting thus on the criteria of 17 experts, plus the criteria of the authors of this study. The final matrix was determined by calculating the statistical model from the matrix database [17].

The experts were asked to fill in the structural analysis matrix, or cross-impacts matrix, placing the variables in both rows and columns and evaluating the impact of each variable on the others, assigning values of 0 (no impact), 1 (slight impact), 2 (strong impact) and 3 (very strong impact). This scale was chosen since by exposing the variables to different degrees of sensitivity, it increases the possibility of having results that a priori could be counterintuitive [16,30]. A potential scale was excluded since it might highly affect the dynamism among variables, hindering the setting of an objective horizon in the near future [1], so, the most likely change was chosen. Finally, a cartesian plane was generated, called direct influence graph (DI), (abscissa and ordered correspond to horizontal and vertical summation of each variable in the structural matrix) [31].

To facilitate the selection of key variables by dividing the contiguous classes into different ranges, a data clustering method known as Jenks natural breaks (JNB) was applied, this tool has the characteristic of minimizing the squared deviation within each aggrupation [1,32]. This allowed the selection of variables that have reached a higher margin due to their higher score and eliminating variables that have obtained a lower ranking, and therefore correspond to a low influence within the watershed system.

A total of four subdivisions were considered, for a low, medium low, medium high and high level. Giving a numerical value to the classification of variables according to [16], the excluded variables are in the low, medium low and upper middle zone levels, and the key variables are distributed in the high level. In total, 23 variables and 529 influence evaluations were achieved.

#### 2.2.3. Future Scenarios Construction

Scenarios were generated once the key variables had been obtained. The morphological space (narrative of future hypotheses or exploration of hypothesis of change) was constructed, considering an objective time horizon to the year 2029. Different hypotheses for the identified variables were described considering a positive change (desirable in the

future), a trend change and a negative change. The scenarios result from the combination of hypotheses [17,33].

#### 2.2.4. Strategic-Tactical Plans

This stage involved generating guidelines to achieve the objective scenario [17]. The guidelines were mainly oriented towards water resource conservation, flows regulation and ecosystem service assurance. Both, strategic and adaptive actions, were included due to the existence of variables that cannot be controlled, such as municipal legislation or climate change. A similar stage is placed at [34], and is highlighted as "move from prospective reflection to strategic action"

#### **3. Results**

#### *3.1. Basin Systemic Characterization*

3.1.1. Physical-Natural Domain

Physical-natural domain was extensively detailed in part 1 [24], dimensions such as LULC, water recharge estimation, flash floods, hydrological modelling, water availability and meteorological projections were quantified, and its results were associated with the narratives of future hypotheses.

#### 3.1.2. Socioeconomic Dimension

Mostly agricultural related activities are made in the lower zone of the ZH basin [22], close to two catchwaters for potabilization [23]. While, in the upper zone, the buffer of the PNP is located, where productive or extraction activities are not allowed [27,35].

In the ZH basin, several anthropogenic problems were identified, mainly related to demographic pressure and the unequal distribution of resources and services. About 43% of the population that lives in the basin, does not have sewerage service. These are forced to use alternative sanitation solutions, such as septic tanks, cesspools, and latrines. Approximately 44% of the population is water supplied from rivers, springs, or ditches. In terms of public perception, 36% of the residents consider that the water they use at home is of poor quality. Around 36% of people have endured failure of the sewer system in their homes. Therefore, water sources are susceptible to contamination, mainly by these alternative sanitation solutions.

The survey conducted in the basin shows that 43% of the people, lived in other sectors of the city and settled in the area for work reasons. It has caused an advance of the agricultural frontier, approaching fields to areas with high slopes, increasing erosion risk and organic surface layer loss. Colonization processes, in addition to constant immigration, have caused changes of LULC and an increase in the water demand.

Low purchasing power, lack of social security (whether due to employer affiliation or peasant insurance), low level of schooling, poor employer relations, among others, have forced a large percentage of residents of ZH to develop agricultural activities that complement their income, which implies, as in previous cases, an advance of the agricultural frontier. About 48% of the population states that work more than 40 h per week, 26% work less than 40 h, and 26% do not work (mostly students, but occasionally they help with agricultural activities). People who work as salaried employees receive on an average \$457 and the people who are self-employed \$287. Our results do not agree with [26], 62% of the population has a productive agricultural activity, mainly related to cattle and short-cycle crops, mostly on waterways riversides. Generally, the population of the area will decrease at a rate of close to 1.56% per year [36].

#### 3.1.3. Political-Institutional Dimension

On the upper eastern flank is the buffer zone of PNP, which maintains independent policies regarding the monitoring and protection of its territory. According to the Ministry of the Environment (MAE), it has a high conservation priority since it is part of the National System of Protected Areas (SNAP), and of the subsystem known as Heritage of Natural Areas of the State (PANE). The SNAP has among its priorities, the preservation of biological diversity, promoting the sustainable management of wild lands, encouraging ecotourism, in addition to maintaining genetic flows [37].

SNAP is a differentiated and shared territorial administration tool, integrated by state, municipal, community and private actors (MAE, 2016). The SNAP is mainly managed with the financing of fiscal resources and subsidize from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). For 2012, \$478,584 corresponding to 2.28% of the total SNAP budget, was allocated to the PNP [35].

SNAP has a budget deficit [38], accuses a lack of personnel, and maintains 95% of its lands with land tenure problems [26,35,37]. But it has achieved good results, particularly in PNP, which maintains a very good state of conservation [39]. In the ZH basin, within the area shared with the PNP, any exploitation or occupation is prohibited [35].

Also, there are conservation areas within the ZH basin, constituted as municipal domain properties, in 2007. Loja's GAD issued the following regulations: "*Ordenanza para la protección de las microcuencas y otras áreas prioritarias para la conservación del cantón Loja*", which was reformed in 2015 due to the Development and Land Use Plan update [40]. This ordinance aims to obtain economic resources to keep water sources in a state of conservation.

The non-governmental organization (NGO) Nature and Culture International (NCI), carried out projects within ZH, aimed at management and protection of protected areas. Due to the importance of their environmental services, received support from Lojas's GAD until 2009 [41]. After Loja's accession in 2009 to the Regional Water Fund (FORAGUA) mercantile trust, the assets acquired by NCI were transferred to FORAGUA [26]. The trust objective is to assure the conservation processes in the water sources, through the adequate investment of the environmental fees charged by the different municipalities. With the reform approved in 2015, the use of these resources is nowadays managed by the Municipal Drinking Water and Sewerage Unit of Loja (UMAPAL).

Land use in the basin is regulated through a zoning system, which considers the land use capacity, the current use of the land, the micro-basins that supply water for human consumption and the urban areas. The different classes of land use capacities have a weighted order and depend on variables such as the terrain slope, soil effective depth, surface texture, soil fertility, drainage, among others. ZH basin, due to its water importance and collective interest, has most of its territory classified as a conservation area [40].

According to the "Recopilación Codificada de la Legislación Municipal", article 23, there are penalty fees for negative externalities associated with contamination in watersheds due to agricultural activities, deforestation, or forest fires, main one is a coercive fine. A prohibition is established for sanitary sewer connections with discharge to streams, rivers, or their tributaries, which may generate contamination [42]. Upstream of the water catchment points, this is ratified. However, there are areas adjacent with agricultural activities.

The ZH basin has legal mechanisms that allow different actors to seek its conservation and take advantage of its ecosystem services. At the community level, according to [26], there is a limited community organization, mainly in the Parroquia *El Carmen*, on the management of resources. There is no specific territorial strategic planning for the area despite the basin hydric importance.

The "*Ordenanza para la protección de las microcuencas y otras áreas prioritarias para la conservación del cantón Loja*" proposes an environmental tax (ET), as a percentage of the unified basic salary (UBS) and the range of consumption per m3. The use of these resources is managed by UMAPAL and must make an annual report to the city mayor, of the investment plan, indicating the destination of the funds. For example, in a range of 21 to 50 m<sup>3</sup> of consumption, for the residential rate, ET for each m3 is 0.0085% of UBS and for the commercial and industrial rate it's 0.020% of UBS [43].

The agreement with FORAGUA was unilaterally terminated by the Municipality of Loja, through the reform of the ordinance, however, the mercantile trust with FORAGUA was in force until 2089 with irrevocable character. FORAGUA considered a contribution (projected) of 400,000 dollars per year [44]. However, it is unclear the intervention mechanisms or the inter-institutional strategies currently carried out between both parts.

One of the initial activities of FORAGUA was the management of funds for the property purchase that are located within zones identified as water recharge zones (WRA). FORAGUA identified about 4800 ha of WRA in the water supply basins for Loja canton. Of these zones, 1887 ha were declared as municipal reserves, and 2908 ha were purchased or managed by agreement [44].

The strategic alliances spectrum is broad for the conservation of water-supplying basins, it is developed through the environmental program "*Plan Nacional de Gestión Integrada e Integral de Recursos Hídricos*" has annexed the Municipality of Loja, Environment Ministry, National Council of Parish Governments of Ecuador (CONAGOPARE), National Secretariat of Water (SENAGUA), Provincial GAD of Loja and communities around the influence area. The objective of this alliance is to manage the water resource comprehensively to ensure the availability, sustainable use and quality of the water resource, for various human and natural uses. Some of the specific commitments of the stakeholders consist of the georeferenced identification of degraded areas and reforestation with native forest species [45].

Due to the lack of foresight from the municipality, the work scenario lacks political stability, so management at the inter-institutional level becomes complex. The canton of Loja is a complex territorial unit, it has personnel trained in public management and with the ability to design and implement adequate policies to achieve institutional objectives, as well as to guide and control local socio-territorial processes, based on the plan of the territory management currently developed [46]. The municipality of Loja permanently continuous training of its employees; of the different directions and headquarters; and through the Ecuadorian Professional Training Service [47].

#### *3.2. System Variables*

Table 1 details the system variables developed by the research team, associated with their domain field and with a short name for the DI graph.


**Table 1.** Domains and input variables.


**Table 1.** *Cont.*

#### *3.3. Key System Variables*

The limits found with Jenks Natural Brakes (JNB) are presented in Table 2. Finally, 4 variables (low and close to low ranges) were discarded from the total of variables considered, obtaining 19 key system variables. Figure 3 shows a DI graph with influence/dependence areas according to JNB classification and by quadrants as established by [16].

**Table 2.** Contiguous classes limits considered and the total of variables.


When applying the JNB classification, the goodness of variance fit (GVF) was also determined, reaching a value of 0.9206, being close to 1 the adjustment of the classification is good [48].

Here, the excluded variables are those that, regardless of the quadrant in which these are found, are in the classification of low and close to low according to the JNB classification. Only those variables classified as close to high and high were considered as input, link, and resulting variables.

Most of the variables have been identified as link variables. These have strong impacts but at the same time are highly receptive to changes in the other variables. It is an interdependent dynamic of change. For example, there are variables such as the population increase that show a relative lower dependency and greater influence than the rest of variables, that means, a change in it would cause an alteration in the entire system, but it wouldn't be highly influenced by a modification in other variables, it also indicates that one of these factors of change, the most important is the anthropogenic. Forecasting future changes in it will help anticipate the effects that might cause.

There are mainly variables of high influence, and high dependence, understood as link variables, such as streamflow, which has a bidirectional effect on the current and future basin dynamics since other variables depend on its availability. It is important to strategically manage these types of variables since conflicts arise around them.

The resulting variables, such as bare ground cover, were shown to have high dependence and relative less influence, them strongly depend on the input and link variables, and their effects on the other variables are minimal.

**Figure 3.** DI graph for ZH basin.

*3.4. Future Scenarios*

Tables 3–5 show the different future scenarios with a change hypothesis by variable. Strategic intervention plans must be associated with a positive scenario, as it is desirable in the future. The hypotheses of the variables of the natural physical domain were adjusted to the projections for 2029 developed in Mera-Parra et al., 2021 [24].


**Table 3.** Positive future change scenario, hypothesis by variable, and its characteristic.

**Table 4.** Trending future change scenario, hypothesis by variable, and its characteristic.



**Table 5.** Negative future change scenario, hypothesis by variable, and its characteristic.

#### *3.5. IWRM Strategies and Tactics*

Population increase could be considered an input variable since it has a high influence and a relatively less dependency compared to the rest of the link variables. To achieve a state of conservation on water resources, efforts must be channeled to prevent population growth. Within the basin, most of the impacts on water resources have an anthropogenic origin. As the population decreases, it is expected that agricultural activities will also decrease. Ref. [49] in a study carried out in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, southern Peru, the importance of considering the participatory and social approach to solve anthropogenic effects and socioeconomic disparities in IWRM is highlighted.

Most of the variables, being interdependent, are conditioned to the appearance of conflicts due to the changes that are generated in them. To reach an objective horizon, forest and shrub vegetation covers, must be extended, which implies a reduction in grassland, bare soil, agriculture, and urban cover. From this viewpoint, it becomes essential, a monitoring to, if necessary, take corrective actions and procure the increased cover of forest and shrub vegetation. The collection of information requires a participatory approach with the stakeholders to integrate different elements of information through GIS. This vision is shared by [50].

It is expected that FORAGUA will retake its intervention and consequently take the competences assumed by UMAPAL. Therefore, depending on an ET (adjusted in the future according to the conditions of the different supply basins in the city of Loja), it is estimated an increase in areas intended for conservation. Similarly, the Regional Water Fund (FORASAN) in Piura, Peru, has achieved positive results in the protection of high Andean hydrographic basins following mechanisms similar to those of FORAGUA, highlighting the importance of involving stakeholders, especially the peasants [51].

Being a PNP area shared with the ZH basin, MAE must adopt actions to ensure a good conservation of associated ecosystem services. Mainly the strengthening of alliances for monitoring and protection. Dependent on SNAP, the financing lines should not be cut. Ref. [50] shares this criterion and mentions that monitoring must include biological and chemical aspects as well as ways to transfer knowledge with decision-makers.

Control and collection of fines for negative externalities associated with the conservation of the basin must become more rigorous, to limit agricultural activities and/or deforestation, ensuring also sanction to the provocation of forest fires. While still existing private domain extensions, if these cannot be dispossessed, financial support programs must be implemented for the conservation and protection of shrub vegetation and forest. Ref. [52] mentions that, if land tenure requirements, legal restrictions, biophysical limits of land use and financial need are considered, financial support programs become attractive, not only for rural communities, if not for larger and even wealthier landowners.

These actions, in general terms, will help achieve a desired hydrological response, such as better water regulation, a lower peak flow (associated to extreme rainfall events) and a higher base flow, as well as a greater water recharge. Additionally, when observing that the areas that seek greater water recharge are above 2350 m asl, agricultural activities should be limited to this level, ref. [51] coincides in this action and adds that, to increase the resilience of the water supply, planning should focus on sources, beyond urban areas.

When evidencing a notable increase in average annual temperature and an increased tendency of high intensity rainfall, adaptive measures should be taken around climate change. Efforts should be made to protect forest areas and shrub vegetation since these are the covers that mainly regulate flow in the basin, those landscapes can help mitigate the effect of climate change on the proposed time horizon, reducing the effect of torrential floods and desertification due to hydric erosion, as long as its geographic expansion is assured.

Ref. [51] approached climate change paradigms similar to that was planned in this research, he suggests that the existing hydraulic infrastructure; designed originally to control the flow and satisfy the demand for water; will be challenged by droughts, high intensity precipitation and sediments dragged by hydric erosion, which will increase in magnitude and frequency. Therefore, those events must be estimated, the infrastructure redesigned and its conditions reestablished, if necessary, to appease the impacts. Additionally, it is essential to seek the increase of green infrastructure to mitigate the effects of climate change (floods and desertification).

To complement the holistic vision of water resource management, and given the vital importance of the basin for Loja city, it's necessary to include in the strategies, the monitoring of flow and water quality, in streamflow where water is collected for human consumption. Ref. [50] argues that technology implemented around water should not be limited to its treatment, it should be implemented in planning phases, including knowledge transfer to facilitate decision-making.

#### **4. Discussion**

At the first stage, the proposed methodology supports the need for a solid framework of natural-physical variables, in current and future conditions. Over the analysis of the relationship between variables, it is distinguished that, the 'potential' influence scale, frequently used in similar cases, was ruled out to assure a more probable objective scenario.

At the phase of the morphological space (that is, the construction of future scenarios), real and therefore controllable trends were included. This aimed to increase the probability of apparition of a more probable target scenario, and therefore, a more assertive strategic plan to achieve it. It is remarkable also that over the final evaluation of the MICMAC, the clustering method applied for the automatic selection of key variables revealed that most of the variables prepared by the researchers presented high influence and dependence, and just a few variables were ruled out from later analysis.

The proposed methodology intrinsically seeks to avoid human decision bias, which could arise due to the conditions of the interviews with stakeholders and decision-makers. As well as those that could occur due to the perceptions of the researchers.

In this study case, there are mainly variables of high influence and dependence, understood as link variables. Those have strong impacts but at the same time them are

highly receptive to changes, that is, there's an interdependent dynamic of change. For example, the variable related to streamflow has a bidirectional effect on the current and future basin dynamics since other variables depend on its availability. It is important to strategically manage these types of variables since conflicts arise around them.

The resulting variables, such as bare ground cover, are shown to have high dependence and relative less influence. This strongly depends on the input and link variables, and their effects on the other variables are minimal. While the variable related to population increase has a relative lower dependency and greater influence than the rest of variables. This means that a change in it would cause an alteration in the entire system, but it would not be highly influenced by a modification of the state of any other variable and that variations in anthropogenic variables can lead to important changes and must be anticipated.

#### **5. Conclusions**

From the 23 variables considered, after the structural analysis, 4 were discarded and scenarios were generated with 19 key system variables. Most of the variables have strong impacts on each other, but at the same time these are highly receptive to changes in other variables, them are highly interdependent. This type of variable is also characterized by being associated with conflicts of interest. Therefore, an alteration in a variable must be planned and consider stakeholders and decision-makers.

The objective scenario considered the behavior of change proposed for the different land uses and covers in the basin for 2029, highlighting the gain of forest areas and shrub vegetation. Which implies a greater regulation of flow, an improvement in the protection of soil superficial layer a repowering other associated ecosystem service. A reduction in agriculture and livestock practices is also expected, mainly due to municipal intervention policies for hydric resources preservation, in addition to a negative population growth trend.

From the strategic and tactical plans, it is determined that structuring and compiling all of the information and data that may be relevant in a single GIS repository will favor decision-making. With this proposed methodology, decision-making towards the sustainable use of the water supply basins will be greatly facilitated.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, P.M.-S.; Data curation, C.M.-P. and P.M.-S.; Formal analysis, C.M.-P.; Investigation, C.M.-P.; Methodology, C.M.-P. and P.M.-S.; Project administration, P.M.-S.; Software, C.M.-P.; Supervision, F.O.-V. and P.M.-S.; Validation, P.M.-S. and P.O.-C.; Visualization, P.M.-S.; Writing—original draft, C.M.-P.; Writing—review & editing, P.O.-C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The APC was funded by the Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja—Ecuador.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Data Availability Statement:** Some or all data and models that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**

