*4.3. Built-Up Probability Modelling*

In the current study, the built-up probability modelling was done using three parameters, such as dominance, diversity, and connectivity models. The results showed that the values of all three models (dominance, diversity, and connectivity) for English Bazar were very high in the urban part and its surrounding area. We constructed a built-up expansion probability model by integrating the dominance, diversity, and connectivity models using fuzzy logic. It is predicted that considerable expansion will occur around the main city centre, NH-34 and SH-10, and some western regions. Increased populations, migration, small agro-based industrial sector, and transportation nodal location of the English Bazar block are all significant factors that have led to a transformation in the land use pattern [11,46,67,68]. However, one of the significant factors of unplanned built-up expansion was local and national governmen<sup>t</sup> plans and policies. The rise of small-scale industrial activity in industrial axes and cities encourages investors to invest and develop an infrastructure. This acts as a pull factor for the population of its surrounding rural area or neighbouring district. Therefore, the new residential area was developed for the migrants.

Similarly, the rapid development of small industrial towns, health centres, educational institutes, and transportation networks has attracted the population to come and settle over there, which significantly influences land use change. The scattered settlements in rural areas were also expanded because of many central and state government-sponsored projects, such as 'Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana' (PMGSY) of the central governmen<sup>t</sup> and 'Pathashree Abhijan' of the state government. These schemes boosted the process of the rapid construction of the road throughout the country (which enhanced the connectivity and linked it with the urban area). Additionally, other schemes, for *pucca* (concrete) houses under the 'Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana' (PMAJ), accelerate the process of builtup expansion. The increase in agricultural activities may be another factor of enormous expansion in the rural built-up sector [56,59]. Due to these changes, vegetation, agricultural land, water bodies, and barren land were converted into built-up areas. Thus, with builtup growth and expansion during this period, the dominant landscape was gradually replaced by an urban landscape, resulting in a shift in the region's natural ecosystem and the formation of a more fragmented landscape pattern of natural resources [69,70]. Additionally, the distance from roads negatively affects built-up developments. Hence, built-up transitions are typically seen near roads [61,71,72]. In the present study, we delineated the future built-up expansion probability based on these factors.

We verified the results using Google Earth images (Figure 11), and it also shows the rapid built-up growth over time, similar to our models. The built-up growth can be seen outwards from the centre, which signifies the probable built-up expansion area.

### *4.4. Policy Recommendation for Urban Planning and Future Research Scope*

To the best of the authors' knowledge, a study on built-up probability has not been conducted so far. Many studies have investigated the effect of urbanisation on land use change [11–15,30,43,68,73]. However, most of the studies were focused mainly on the urban area. However, we considered rural and urban areas in this research paper and showed their future built-up growth probability. Built-up growth centres are primarily in the southwestern and north-western regions of the municipality area, and some of them are in the western part of the English Bazar block. It also shows that not every village is adjacent to a dense region, which is a potential growth hub in the future. The outcome of the present study showed that the municipal area witnessed an urban sprawl beyond its administrative boundary after 2011. This research identified about 20 villages as high-probability future growth hubs and 38 villages as moderate-probability future growth centres based on the dominance, diversity, and connectivity parameters. The significant probability will be surrounded by the city and along the NH-34. Therefore, it is suggested that these should be immediately stopped to maintain the remaining natural resources and, if feasible, restore them. If we inspect the distribution of trees in the urban region, we can see that trees are scarce in the urban area, altering the microclimate and forming an urban heat island (UHI). Due to this, the present study suggests that more green space be created in the English Bazar urban region, such as along the Badh road, Subhankar sisu udhyan, Chatra wetland, University of Gour Banga, etc. A similar suggestion can be followed in other built-up nodes such as Samsi, Pukhuria, Pakuahat, etc. English Bazar City has suffered from the UHI effect [61]; therefore, generating more green spaces will help reduce this UHI effect. It will also improve the air quality of the study area and provide comfort to the citizens.

**Figure 11.** Present scenario of the urban landscape in the English Bazar block based on high-resolution satellite images (QuickBird, resolution 1 m) from Google Earth. (**<sup>a</sup>**–**<sup>c</sup>**) in upper part of figure shows South-eastern built-up expansion during 2006, 2014, and 2021, away from the municipal area. (**a'**,**b'**) in lower part of figure shows South-west built-up growth besides NH-34 during 2007–2021). As previously stated, a significant changing pattern was observed in the southern part of the study area, with water bodies in that area changing over time from 2001 to 2011. Some of it was converted into agricultural land, but from 2011 to 2021, the water bodies area increased again for the reasons previously stated. As a result, the Google Earth images clearly indicate that the water bodies are changing into built-up lands.

Systematic and uniformly distributed urbanisation or built-up expansion has not been seen in small and medium-sized cities. It is noticed that urban growth can be observed in some regions of small and medium-sized cities. Therefore, with the help of the fragmentation model, it is possible to identify the place of growth with the direction and magnitude. If the interval is reduced to the three-five-year interval, the direction of growth, and the actual reason behind the growth, can be identified. Therefore, unwanted rapid urban growth can be prevented in those areas.
