*3.3. Drivers of Maize Production Failure in 2020*

To understand the local knowledge of the factors responsible for the 2020 maize production failures, the impacts, and the lessons learned, the farmers were asked to identify and rank the factors responsible for the minor season maize production failures in 2020. Rainfall, pests and diseases were ranked as the major distinctive factors in all the study communities (Table 2). According to the respondents, the minor season rains in 2020 set in too late, and lasted for a much shorter time than usual. Consequently, many farmers missed the timing of the rains. Farmers who either planted early and expected the rain to come, or who planted late and expected that the rains were going to continue, experienced plant

withering due to dry soil conditions. The few farmers who got the timing right suffered severe fall armyworms attacks, leading to plant damage and subsequent crop failures. recovery in 2020, which to a large extent corroborates the narrative of yield decline. However, given the lack of seasonal maize yield data, it was not possible to isolate the minor season yield to match the qualitative reports of the respondents.

*Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 18

years.

About 68% of the farmers reported that their maize yield during the 2020 minor growing season decreased between 40 and 70% compared to what they harvested in the previous

The observations of the respondents were validated by empirical data on maize production. Figure 2 shows that the cultivated area of maize slightly decreased in 2019 and 2020 compared with 2018. The maize grain yield sharply increased from 2017, and the highest was recorded in 2018. Figure 2 further shows that, compared with 2018, maize yield dropped by about 14% and 8% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, suggesting a slow

**Figure 2.** Maize cultivated area and production from 2012 to 2020 for Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality. **Figure 2.** Maize cultivated area and production from 2012 to 2020 for Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality.

*3.3. Drivers of Maize Production Failure in 2020*  To understand the local knowledge of the factors responsible for the 2020 maize pro-**Table 2.** Ranking of factors responsible for the 2020 minor season maize production failure in Ejura-Sekyedumase municipality by farmers.


Note: For each column, median values with different letters significantly differ at *p* < 0.05

Rainfall data for the municipality show fluctuations in the total monthly rainfall quantity from 2015 to 2016. It can be seen from Figure 3 that total monthly rainfall in the minor season (September–October) in 2020, in general, decreased compared to the preceding four years. To further assess the farmers' narratives about prolonged dry days in 2020, the frequency and longest days of dry spells were computed (Figure 4). For the major season, the number of dry days slightly decreased toward 2020, while the opposite was generally the case for the minor season. Furthermore, the minor season in 2020 experienced a longer dry spell (about 4–5 days more) compared to the other years. The frequency and longevity of the dry spells corroborate the qualitative accounts of the respondents of

prolonged drought. According to the IPCC [12], climate change is projected to intensify rainfall variability and extreme weather events, such as dry spells, which will affect crop production. Gbangou, Ludwig, van Slobbe, Greuell and Kranjac-Berisavljevic [10] and Usman and Reason [13] indicated that the timing of dry spells relative to the cropping calendar rather than total seasonal rainfall is fundamental to crop viability and production. The authors argued that cumulative rainfall does not fully explain how rainfall variability can limit agricultural production. The reason for this is that a few heavy rainfall events may lead to the erroneous impression that the soil moisture conditions during the growing season were favorable. In other words, crops are more likely to do well under uniformly distributed "light rain" conditions over a long period compared to few "heavy" rainfall events interspersed by recurring dry spells. Owusu, Ayisi, Musah-Surugu and Yankson [7] reported that, because in Ghana maize is often cultivated under rain-fed conditions, it is extremely vulnerable to climate extremes such as prolonged droughts. Evidence from the present study shows that increased dry spells, in terms of either longevity or frequency, pose a major risk to maize production in the transition zone of Ghana, and thus threaten its status as the breadbasket of the nation. In western and southern regions of Zambia, Siatwiinda, et al. [14] found that the risk of maize failure is heightened by recurring dry conditions leading to heat stresses, but noted that production losses in the region are largely threatened by flooding conditions. In the case of Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality, maize production losses were largely due to water stresses, but not flooding conditions. *Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 18 Table 2 indicates that the rankings of these other factors limiting production somewhat differed between the communities, which could be attributed to local conditions. For example, the farmers in Ejura ranked farm inputs higher compared with those in Kasei and Anyinasu. The reason cited was that there is mostly a general scarcity of farm inputs in Ejura due to high demand during peak seasons. On the other hand, soil degradation was ranked highest in Anyinasu compared with Ejura and Kasei, because of the general report of poor soils in the community.

**Figure 3.** Monthly total rainfall in Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality for the period from 2015 to 2020. **Figure 3.** Monthly total rainfall in Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality for the period from 2015 to 2020.

Minimum temperatures for the major and minor seasons for the period 2015–2020 are shown in Figure S1 (Supplementary Figure). As expected, the minimum temperature for 2015–2020 was identical, averaging ~25 ◦C. For lack of data on maximum temperature, the trend for the maximum temperature could not be shown.

Four main pests of maize were reported in the study communities, namely, grasshopper, stemborers, aphids and fall armyworms. However, the fall armyworm was reported as the most destructive to the maize. The farmers revealed, per their observations, that the fall armyworms become prevalent in dry and warm conditions. This is probably why the incidence of these pests was high during the drought-prone minor season of 2020. The

interviews also revealed that the first fall armyworm outbreak recorded in the communities was in 2017. This was highlighted by a male respondent in Ejura as follows:

I heard about what the fall armyworm can do to crops in other parts of Ghana in late 2016. However, it was not until late 2017 that this little but very destructive creature made its journey to Ejura and its environs. It was not a major concern initially as the damage was minimal, but it is now problematic because of the destruction, especially to young maize plants. Multiplication of the pest has been very rapid since 2020. The pest can devour several square meters of maize farm within a short time . . . Like all other farmers in the Ejura area, I have observed that the insect seems to multiply faster when the weather is dry and warm, which explains why the situation was worse in 2020 minor season because the rain did not come in time and good quantity . . . (Male maize farmer in Ejura).

The foregoing viewpoint is consistent with one researcher's account that the fall armyworm emerged in many parts of the country in 2017. Koffi, et al. [15] argues that the ability of the fall armyworms to feed in large quantities and fly over a long distance can seriously affect agricultural production, and thus poses a food security threat to the nation at large. As Bariw, et al. [16] also identified, the impact of the fall armyworm transcends the physical environment, to household social and physical resources and assets. Several factors contribute to the declining maize yield in Ghana [17]. In the case of Ejura-Sekyedumase, the results reveal that, besides rainfall and pests, other environmental and socio-economic factors, such as poor seeds, soil degradation and a lack of farm-based inputs, were reported to have contributed to the 2020 minor season maize production failures. Table 2 indicates that the rankings of these other factors limiting production somewhat differed between the communities, which could be attributed to local conditions. For example, the farmers in Ejura ranked farm inputs higher compared with those in Kasei and Anyinasu. The reason cited was that there is mostly a general scarcity of farm inputs in Ejura due to high demand during peak seasons. On the other hand, soil degradation was ranked highest in Anyinasu compared with Ejura and Kasei, because of the general report of poor soils in the community.
