*3.6. Convergence and Divergence Between Meteorological Data and Farmers' Perceptions*

With no noticeable difference between the three agro-ecological settings, most of the farming households were headed by young persons and adults (Table 5). Most of the households were headed by males. About two-thirds of the households had no formal education. Nearly one-third of the farmers had less than one hectare of land, whereas the percent of households owing greater than two hectares was relatively higher in the highland areas. Half of the farming households had medium economic status. In the highland areas, close to half of the farmers were economically better-off, whereas, in the midland areas, only about one-in-ten households had higher economic status. While most of the farmers had moderate social capital, higher percentage of farmers in the highland areas had high social capital. Slightly more than half of the farmers had no access to media.


**Table 5.** Percentage distribution of households' demographic and socio-economic characteristics by agro-ecological settings.

In general, the change in temperature was correctly perceived as about three-fourth of the farmers correctly perceived that temperature was increasing (Table 6). However, for rainfall, perception and actual results aligned for only 5% of the farmers. While the measurement showed no significant change in the amount of rainfall during 30 years of observation, most of the farmers (62.2%) perceived that it was either decreasing (55.9%) or increasing (6.3%). In areas where rainfall was increasing, the perception of 32.7% of the farmers was not consistent with the actual result as they perceived that it was decreasing (32.3%) or that there was no change (0.4%). The occurrence of drought was correctly perceived by half of the farmers. The perception of about one-third of the farmers converged with the meteorological result concerning the occurrence of flood. Variability in the time of onset and cessation of rainfall was correctly perceived by most of the farmers. Close to two-thirds of the farmers correctly perceived late onset of rainfall. Likewise, the perception of more than half of the farmers (55.2%) converged with the meteorological data that there was an early cessation of rainfall during the *kiremt* season. However, although the meteorological data showed otherwise, slightly more than one-third of the farmers wrongly perceived that there were late onset and early cessation of *kiremt* rainfall.


**Table 6.** Percentage distribution of variation of farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability by observed meteorological results (n = 810).

Table 7 shows the profiles of farmers whose perceptions converges with and diverges from observed rainfall and temperature records. In the midland areas, the perception of farmers converged with the statistical result showing a significant increase in rainfall over the 30 years. Likewise, male household heads and those who had access to media had more accurate perception of rainfall trends. The share of farmers with correct perception of increasing rainfall in this winning profile was 34%. In the highland areas, farmers' perception converged with the meteorological results that there was no change in the amount of rainfall. Old-age farmers and those who had access to media correctly perceived that there was no change in the trend of rainfall. On the other hand, with the highest share of farmers with diverging perception included in this winning profile (86%), there was a divergence between meteorological results and perception among farmers with no education, no access to media, a large size of land (≥2 ha), and medium economic status. Male household heads, those who had medium social capital, and those with access to media had a correct perception of an increase in temperature that converges with meteorological results. Farmers residing in the lowland areas also correctly perceived an increasing trend of temperature. A wrong perception of temperature was observed among farmers with no education, no access to media, a medium or large size of land, and medium economic status. Temperature perception that diverges from the meteorological result was also noticed among farmers residing in the midland areas.


**Table 7.** Winning profiles of convergence and divergence between measurement and farmers' perceptions of rainfall and temperature changes.


**Table 7.** *Cont*.

a—Variables; b—Winning profiles; Mrain—Measured rainfall; Prain—Perceived rainfall; Mtemp—Measured temperature; Ptemp—Perceived temperature; PWATLOG—Perceived waterlogging; AGE—Age of household head; SEX—Sex of household head; EDUC—Educational level; MEDIA—Access to media; ECON—Economic status of households; LAND—Size of landholding; SOCAP—Social capital; AGRO—Agro-ecological setting.

The profiles of households whose perceptions of drought and flood was consistent with observed trends of drought and flood are shown in Table 8. Drought was computed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, whereas flood was measured using a proxy indicator of change in the number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Accurate perception of drought varies by agro-ecological settings. While farmers in the lowland areas perceived the occurrence of drought, which was convergent with the meteorological result, the absence of drought was correctly noticed by farmers in the midland areas. Adults, males, as well as farmers with access to media at least once a week and higher social capital correctly perceived the occurrence of drought. However, the perception of farmers in the highland areas diverged from the meteorological result. Although the observation showed drought occurrence, it was not perceived by farmers. The drought perception of farmers who had no education, no access to media, owned a large size of land, and medium economic status diverged from the meteorological data. The coverage this profile has of the relevant farmers was 27%. The likelihood of having the highest probability to have this diverging perception was also relatively higher (1.95). Convergence and divergence in flood perception also vary by agro-ecological settings. In the midland areas, farmers' perception of a flood as a key problem was confirmed by the meteorological data. In addition, the perception of farmers with at least primary-level education, owned a small size of land, and medium social capital on the occurrence of flood aligned with the observed data. The perception of farmers in the highland areas also converged with the meteorological data that there was no flood. In the lowland areas, although farmers perceived the occurrence of flood, it was not supported by meteorological data. Lack of education, lack of access to media, being a young household head, and medium economic status further characterizes households with an inaccurate perception of flood occurrence. The share of farmers failing to recognize the actual occurrence of flood in the winning profile was 40%. It is also worth noting that there was heterogeneity among farmers from the same agro-ecological settings as there were farmers from the midland areas who had an inaccurate perception of drought and flood occurrence.

The profile of households with convergent and divergent perceptions of the time of onset and cessation of *kiremt* rainfall is shown in Table 9. Accurate perception of the occurrence of late onset of rainfall was observed among male household heads, owners of the small size of land, households with medium social capital, and residents of the midland areas. Eleven percent of the farmers with the right prediction are characterized by this winning profile. The perception of a late onset of rainfall that deviates from the meteorological result was observed among farmers in the lowland and highland areas. In the lowland areas, farmers perceived a late onset of rainfall, which was not consistent with the actual measurement. In the highland areas, although the meteorological data showed a late onset of rainfall, farmers' perception diverged from this. In addition, lack of education, low social capital, lack of access to media, young household heads, and ownership of medium size of land characterized households whose perception diverged from the meteorological data. Early cessation of *kiremt* rainfall

was accurately perceived by adults, males, owners of the small size of land, medium social capital, and poor farmers. Although the share of farmers included in the profile was smaller, lack of education, ownership of a large size of land, lack of access to media, and medium economic status characterized farmers whose perception of the time of cessation of rainfall diverged from the observed meteorological data. However, as indicated by the edge value, it is with higher certainty that the combination of these variables characterizes the winning profile.


**Table 8.** Winning profiles of convergence and divergence between measurement and farmers' perceptions of the occurrences of drought and flood.

a—Variables; b—Winning profiles; Mdrought—Measured occurrence of drought; Pdrought—Perceived occurrence of drought; Mflood—Measured occurrence of flood; Pflood—Perceived occurrence of flood.

**Table 9.** Winning profiles of convergence and divergence between measurement and farmers' perceptions of the time of onset and cessation of rainfall.


a—Variables; b—Winning profiles; MLateOnset—Measured late onset of rainfall; PLateOnset—Perceived late onset of rainfall; MEarlyCessation—Measured early cessation of rainfall; PEarlyCessation—Perceived early cessation of rainfall.
