**5. Conclusions**

Climate change creates, on the one hand, new opportunities for potatoes as an alternative source of human food and animal feed, as well as a raw material for the production of bioethanol and starch, and on the other hand, unfavorable weather conditions may contribute to a decrease in the acreage suitable for potato cultivation as a result of the deepening hydrological drought and the reduction in yielding, in relation to the actual and potential yield.

The effect of climate warming in the southeastern part of Poland is a prolonged growing season, an earlier start of vegetation, no or little snow cover and the development of diseases, including a faster spread of potato blight, which results in a decrease in the total and commercial yield of early and medium-early varieties, medium-late and late as well as a decrease in the yield of early varieties intended for very early and early potato harvesting.

The meteorological conditions exerted a significant influence on the variability of the potato yielding. The positive dependence of tuber yield was demonstrated on the following: air temperature in April–May and June–July and negative temperature in August–September. Along with the increase in the average temperature in April–May and June-July, tuber yields should be expected to increase, assuming that the increase in temperature will be accompanied by an increase in rainfall in this period.

It has been documented that thermal, precipitation and precipitation conditions have a negative effect on potato yields, especially in the early stages of the growing season. Excessive rainfall in April–May may significantly reduce the yield of potatoes. The yield limited by the excess of water was 39% lower than the actual yield and 64% lower than the potential potato yield.

The modeling method used in this study, after the necessary modification, can be used to forecast the yields of other crop species, which in turn can bring about measurable macroeconomic and microeconomic effects.

Climate changes affect food security in the field of basic food raw materials, including potato, as one of the most important food products and raw material for the processing of main food products such as French fries, crisps, dried products, frozen and freeze-dried products, raw material for the production of starch and bioethanol and influence on the state's food security policy.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, B.S., P.B. and P.P.; methodology, P.P. and P.B.; software F.Y.; validation, D.S., P.B. and B.K.-M.; formal analysis, F.Y.; investigation, P.B.; resources, D.S. and P.P.; data curation, P.P.; writing—original draft preparation, D.S.; writing—review and editing, B.S., P.B. and B.K.-M.; visualization, F.Y. and D.S.; supervision, B.S. and P.P.; project administration, P.B. and P.P.; funding acquisition, B.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.

**Acknowledgments:** Thank you for supporting the Central Research Center for Cultivated Plants in Słupia Wielka and for sharing the data.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
