**5. Conclusions**

Climate change and variability as well as the accuracy of farmers' perceptions of these changes are decisive for agricultural activities and the effectiveness of the livelihood strategies pursued by farmers. Geographical location as well as seasons have a great impact on the trends of changes in climate variables, occurrence of extreme events, and the accuracy of farmers' perceptions. All the three agro-ecological settings in this study are challenged by climatic factors that are either the same across all or vary between them. The increasing average maximum and average annual temperature, increasing warm extremes, and decreasing cold extremes denote that the study areas are warming. An increase in warm extremes and recurrent occurrence of drier years are the problems in the lowland and highland areas whereas heavy precipitation is observed in the midland areas. The effect of climate-related events of diverse nature are expected to be severe in the study areas. While midland areas face severe consequences of heavy rainfall, lowland and highland areas are highly challenged by a relatively small amount of rainfall, higher inter-annual variability, a shorter crop growth period, and a longer duration of dry spells. Rainfall variability, particularly during the short rainy season, is the major constraint in these areas, resulting in reliance on crop production once a year during the

long rainy season which is also characterized by yearly variation in the time of onset and cessation. In spite of the accurate perception of increasing temperature, most farmers inaccurately perceived declining rainfall. Lower economic status, access to media, and higher social capital are associated with accurate perception. Perception diverges from actual trends among economically better-off farmers and households whose heads have no education. Although agro-ecological settings account for noticeable variation in the accuracy of perceptions of changes in climate variables, there is high heterogeneity among farmers in each agro-ecological setting. The divergence of farmers' perception from observed rainfall situation being highly likely to induce inaction, a lack of access to reliable weather information further undermines informed adaptation decision making. These are formidable challenges for smallholder farmers struggling to sustain their livelihoods as cropping calendar, the type of crops produced, and crop productivity are adversely affected by variable and uncertain climate conditions.

The observed changes in climatic variables have several implications for planning. First, reducing the impact of climate change requires the identification and implementation of adaptation strategies that are specifically suitable for the climate feature of each agro-ecological setting. For instance, variability in the distribution of rainfall brings to the fore the importance of water management as well as availing seeds that can be harvested in a short time or withstand water stress for effective adaptation. Second, the recurrence of climate variability and extreme events necessitates the expansion of alternative climate-resilient livelihood opportunities as a means to sustain food security. Third, increasing the availability of weather stations at the local level and enhancing the capacity to collect and analyze weather information increase the opportunity to anticipate the likely occurrences of weather-related risks and manage them through proactive measures. The deviation of farmers' perceptions from the observed changes might result in under- or over-estimating the impacts of changes and hampering their efforts for adaptation. In this vein, the dissemination of agro-ecologically specific, spatially interpolated, and locally relevant weather information is important to reach farmers and help them have accurate perceptions of the local weather conditions and make informed farming decisions and other livelihood choices. Specifically, it would be helpful for farmers to make proper farming adjustment and adaptation decisions if they have access to timely information not only on the amount and distribution of rainfall but also on the expected time of onset and cessation of rainfall during the cropping seasons. In addition to mass media (e.g., radio), the use of a cell phone and locally based formal (e.g., agricultural development agents, health extension workers) and informal (e.g., community-based organizations) structures would be useful to enhance farmers' access to reliable weather information. Furthermore, in spite of correctly perceiving changes in climate variables, since poor farmers lack the capacity to adapt, availing farm inputs that are tolerant to water stress and shorter crop growth period as well as improved production technologies increase their resilience to CCV.

Several issues remain unanswered. Farmers' perception of CCV is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to take adaptation actions [19]. Equally important is how they perceive the adverse effects of these changes on their livelihoods and the welfare of the community. The narrow focus on farmers' perceptions of changes in temperature and rainfall does not properly capture their comprehensive understanding of causes and consequences of climate change as well as possible responses, which are decisive to take action to minimize impacts. Farmers' understanding of local weather conditions is also rooted in socio-cultural factors. Hence, understanding farmers' holistic perspective on changing climate conditions as well as the underlying factors of variation in their perceptions requires further investigation. In addition, given the temporal changes in climate variables, adaptation decisions and the selection of adaptation strategies change across time. The dynamic interplay between climatic variables, households' vulnerability, and farmers' adaptation decision making is the subject of future inquiry.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, D.E., D.J.R.M.S., C.F.A.v.W. and T.d.C.B.; methodology, D.E. and C.F.A.v.W.; software, D.E. and C.F.A.v.W.; validation, D.E., D.J.R.M.S., C.F.A.v.W. and T.d.C.B.; formal analysis, D.E. and C.F.A.v.W.; investigation, D.E.; data curation, D.E.; writing—original draft preparation, D.E.; writing—review and editing, D.E., D.J.R.M.S., C.F.A.v.W. and T.d.C.B.; visualization, D.E.; supervision, D.J.R.M.S., C.F.A.v.W. and T.d.C.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. **Funding:** This research was funded by EP-NUFFIC, grant number R/002597.01. The APC was also funded by EP-NUFFIC.

**Acknowledgments:** The authors are very much grateful to the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia for the permission to use meteorological data. We would also like to thank the four anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions which helped a lot in improving the paper.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
