**1. Introduction**

It is increasingly becoming apparent that climate change, spatio-temporal variability, and extreme events are issues of concern in Africa due to exceptionally high vulnerability [1,2]. Africa is warmer than it was 100 years ago and this warming not only continues but also will accelerate to a rate between 2 and 6 ◦C in 100 years [3]. Unlike average temperature that is projected to increase across the continent, there is diversity in the pattern of rainfall [4]. According to the projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [5], there will be a reduction in rainfall in Northern and Southern Africa, but an increase in Eastern Africa at the end of the 21st century. Model projections show varying results for Western Africa, yet most of them indicate a wetter core rainfall season with a small delay in the

rainy season by the end of the century. There is also a projected increase in extreme temperatures and rainfall in Africa [5]. Due to current and future trends of climate change, it is expected that there will be a decline in the area suitable for agriculture, a shortening of the length of growing seasons, and diminishing crop yields [6].

Although Ethiopia is no exception to the problem of climate change, studies at different spatial scales show contrasting patterns of rainfall and temperature. Rainfall in Ethiopia is highly heterogeneous showing a wide range of patterns with no clear direction of change [1]. Another study [7] reported no significant change in annual rainfall at the national level but a significant decline in the *kiremt* rainfall (i.e., long rainy season between June and September) for south-western and central Ethiopia. A study in south-western Ethiopia [8] reported decreasing trends of rainfall. Another national-level study showed varied rainfall patterns in different parts of the country [9]. It confirmed significantly decreasing trends of *kiremt* and annual rainfall in northern, north-western, and western parts of the country. However, an increasing trend of annual rainfall was observed at a limited number of locations in eastern Ethiopia. For central Ethiopia, an increase in annual and *kiremt* rainfall but a decrease in *belg* rainfall [short rainy season between March and May] [10]. In the upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia, an insignificant increasing trend of annual rainfall was reported [11].

Regional- and local-level analyses show different trends of temperature. Based on climate model projections, one study [1] reported warming in all seasons across the country with relatively modest differences between regions. Another study [8] found upward trends in temperature for south-western Ethiopia. Both increasing and decreasing trends of temperature records were reported in different parts of the upper Blue Nile basin [11]. Both mean annual maximum and mean annual minimum temperature were increasing in the northern, central, and southern parts of the basin but decreasing trend was observed in the western part. A study in central Ethiopia [12] reported significantly increasing trends in annual maximum and minimum temperatures for midland and lowland areas. In north-central Ethiopia, significantly increasing trends of mean and minimum average temperature were reported [13]. There is also evidence that extreme events are becoming common in the country [9,14,15] and considerably vary by eco-environments [14,16].

The identification of the micro patterns of changes in climate variables is not sufficient to address climate problems. Farmers' perceptions of changes in climate variables is also important for climate risk management and agricultural adaptation [17–19]. The way farmers respond to climate change and variability (CCV) depends on how they perceive the problems. Perception motivates action, which suggests that failure to recognize CCV as a livelihood threat might reduce concern and hinder action. Farmers make adaptation decisions based on their perceptions of changes in the climate variables [19]. The use of autonomous adaptation strategies specifically depends on farmers' perceptions of local weather conditions. The convergence of perception with and divergence from observed trends also determine the type and time of taking actions. Farming decisions to be made and adaptation actions to be taken are more likely to be effective if there is a convergence between objective measurements and subjective assessments. However, it is not easy for farmers to have an accurate perception of changes in climate variables. The difficulty emanates from the fact that climate change is a long-term process, whereas farmers' perception refers to short-term experience relying on memories [17].

Given these challenges, studies show contrasting results on whether farmers can accurately perceive actual changes in local climate variables. In general, farmers' perception of an increase in temperature aligns with meteorological records [17,20,21]. However, for rainfall, studies show divergence between perception and records [18,19,21,22]. In Ethiopia, despite heavy reliance on rain-based economic activities and the absence of relevant information, studies linking perception to meteorological data are quite limited. One study [23] found that increased temperature and declining rainfall were the most widely held perceptions among farmers in the central highlands of Ethiopia. However, the result was not compared with meteorological data to validate the accuracy of farmers' subjective assessments. Another study [24] investigated farmers' perception in northern Ethiopia and found a divergence between perception of declining rainfall and rainfall measurements. Most of

the previous studies compare farmers' perception with observed results from the nearest weather station due to lack of temperature and rainfall data at the household level. However, this comparison is less precise as all farmers around the stations will have the same measurement values of the climate variables. Besides, previous studies comparing perception and actual measurements did not specifically show the features of farmers whose perceptions converge with or diverge from observed meteorological data. Our study addresses these gaps by using a novel approach to better integrate measured changes in climate variables with a farmers' perception survey. The integration of perception and the measurements adds new insights into the current literature beyond simply presenting the percentage of farmers who are wrong or right. Whereas climate refers to average weather conditions over a long period of time, weather shows short-term atmospheric conditions. The meteorological data were employed to investigate both long-term changes and short term annual/seasonal variabilities. Although farmers commonly observe short-term atmospheric conditions in their farming operations, they can also perceive long-term changes to make adjustments to their livelihood practices. Hence, both concepts, climate and weather, are used in this study.

Understanding how climate variables are changing at the local level is important for planning appropriate adaptation strategies and boosting agricultural productivity [25]. However, no discernible and consistent patterns of change in and congruence between climate variables and perceptions can be established from these studies. Ethiopia is known for its highly diverse topography with altitudinal differences ranging from 125 m below sea level to 4620 m above sea level [7]. Given the high spatial variation in topography, analysis at the national or regional level masks local variations in temperature and rainfall and hence are of limited use to farmers seeking local solutions to manage the effects of climate change and variability. Hence, downscaling the level of analysis to meaningful geographic units makes the measurements more informative [7] and the information more relevant for farmers to plan for proactive adaptation responses. The ways local climate changes are understood by farmers are equally important in motivating adaptation. Therefore, this study has dual objectives. The first objective is the investigation of agro-ecological differences and temporal changes in rainfall and temperature as well as associated extreme events in topographically diverse areas in central Ethiopia. The second is comparison of the results of meteorological data with famers' perceptions to discern convergences and divergences. The perceptions of farmers are assessed against the statistical results as the congruence/incongruence between the two has implications for risk management and adaptation decision making. The study contributes to the scant literature on the agro-ecological comparison of climate change and variability. Besides, by integrating meteorological data with a farmers' perception survey, our study further provides insights on farmers' understanding of the local weather conditions and its alignment with observed trends of climate variables.
