**1. Introduction**

Non-climatic stressors (e.g., demographic and income growth, demand for animal products) and climate change (CC) influence the food system. These climatic and nonclimatic stressors have an effect on the four pillars of food security (availability, access, use, and stability) [1]. From the beginning of the 1990s, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), showed that over the period from 1850 to 2012, the global average temperature had experienced warming of 0.78 ◦C. This global warmingcould be induced by the change in the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere from 278 ppm to 379 ppm. The prediction for the end of the 21st century is a global warming that will range between 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C [2]. In Africa, in recent decades, temperatures have increased at a rate somewhat faster than the global average temperature. Thus, the 2019 year was identified as one of the three warmest years on this continent [3]. CC is a consequence of global warming, which has adverse effects on fluctuations in annual total precipitations, average temperature, global increase in atmospheric CO2, and sea-level rise. These are some of the major manifestations of CC, which have direct and indirect

**Citation:** Kourat, T.; Smadhi, D.; Madani, A. Modeling the Impact of Future Climate Change Impacts on Rainfed Durum Wheat Production in Algeria. *Climate* **2022**, *10*, 50. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10040050

Academic Editor: Steven McNulty

Received: 1 February 2022 Accepted: 18 March 2022 Published: 23 March 2022

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

socio-economic negative impacts on plant development and crop yield (reduction in crop yields by up to 70%) ([4,5]). In general, crop yields will increase in cold areas where low temperature currently limits crop growth. However, heat stress on crops and water scarcity will lead to a decline in yields in warm environments. Warm temperatures and precipitation variability associated with a high frequency of extreme climate events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, etc.) have worsened food insecurity in several regions of the world, especially in Africa ([3,6]). Information related to climate impacts on crops is important for understanding their macroeconomic implications for food security. This climate information allows us to choose e the appropriate adaptation strategies supported by knowledge of the processes that lead to changes in yield, under average and extreme weather conditions [7]. Identifying the drivers of changes and variability in yields can enable the development of targeted adaptation measures such as: (i) insurance solutions against specific weather [8], (ii) support the planning of long-term investments in irrigation infrastructure [9], or (iii) improve reproductive efficiency as the suitability of adaptive traits changes with CC and elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere [10].

In Algeria, 50% of non-irrigated agricultural lands are cultivated with cereals, especially durum wheat, with a low national average grain yield estimated at 17 qha−<sup>1</sup> (2000–2020 period). However, these lands are mainly located in the High Plains region, known for its semi-arid climate [11]. Moreover, the decrease in the national production of meat and milk had affected their prices and caused an increase in demand for cereal products. The last are characterized by their subvention prices by the government, especially wheat, which is considered as the main source of protein in the diet of Algerian people [12]. Thus, Algeria meets its national needs for durum wheat with massive imports, with an average annual bill of \$1 billion. These food bills are paid, thanks to oil rent [11].

It is projected in Algeria by the future horizon 2030: (i) an increase in temperatures of +0.9 to +1.3 ◦C and their variability, (ii) an intensification of the frequency of heat waves, and (iii) an accentuation of the variability of precipitations, which will result in an increase in dry and wet episodes by +10% and will be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation of −9 up to −14% [13]. In the future decades, the harmful impacts of the above projected CC will manifest themselves above all else by the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts. This projected drought will threaten crop production, mainly rainfed crops yields, such as durum wheat. Thus, by the future, under the projected CC, the demographic surge will lead to an increase in national wheat needs. Thus, with the fall in oil prices, the satisfaction of national demand for wheat could become a real concern to economic balance and food security in Algeria [14].

Given the importance of wheat in human nutrition and global trade, many studies (e.g., [15–17]) are carried out across the world to assess the impact of CC on wheat yield. These studies used crop models and the Representative Concentrations Pathway scenarios (RCPs) [18]. The results of the above studies could not apply directly in Algeria. Because the CC's impacts on wheat production are specific to each region in the world according to its local climate and to its financial and technical capacity to face the CC impacts. According to [19], in Algeria, the negative impacts of CC on water resources were assessed with the UKHI model (United Kingdom Meteorological Office High Resolution). This assessment study carried out by seasonal climate forecasting showed a decrease in the rainiest area and an increase in the driest ones in Algeria. So, the rainfed crop is very vulnerable to future climate change. As a consequence of the above-cited projected CC in Algeria, a decline in crop yields by −10 to −30% was predicted by 2030 [20]. Despite the strategic role of rainfed wheat in national food security and its high level of vulnerability to the projected CC, the studies of CC assessment impacts on wheat production, using crop models and associated with RCPs scenarios, are very rare in Algeria. With the exception of the study carried out by Rouabhi et al. [21], who used a statistical model to predict durum wheat yields under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, in 2070, at the Setif region. So, the main aim of this research is to improve the available knowledge related to the future CC negative impacts on rainfed wheat in Algeria. This study could help the farmers better understand the CC

issue and its impacts on wheat. This study could help the farmers to choose more resilient and CC-adapted agricultural practices in the future. Furthermore, these kinds of studies will be important to the agricultural stakeholders in preparing adapted policies which will accompany the farmers in their quest to prevent wheat yields losses induced by CC. Thus, these types of studies are very important in preparing a national strategy to adapt rainfed wheat against the projected CC negative impacts. This could help them to protect the national economic balance from the potential negative impacts of food insecurity induced by low national wheat production.
