**1. Introduction**

Since the 1950s, the food self-sufficiency policy has always featured as an unquestionable policy objective for Egypt. Climate change can have a severe impact on the agricultural sector and the stability of food security in Egypt. This is understandable when one considers both the high population growth and the social and political vulnerability associated with a dependence on food imports and world market food prices such as that of wheat. Egypt is considered one of the largest importers of wheat and a country where people rely on wheat products for around one-third of their food consumption in terms of calorie intake [1]. It is also expected that the food and water gaps that Egypt is facing will significantly widen by 2050 [2].

Food security, job creation, and limited per-capita land endowment in the Old Lands were always the determining factors for water and agricultural policy and are constantly

**Citation:** Badawy, A.; Elmahdi, A.; Abd El-Hafez, S.; Ibrahim, A. Water Profitability Analysis to Improve Food Security and Climate Resilience: A Case Study in the Egyptian Nile Delta. *Climate* **2022**, *10*, 17. https:// doi.org/10.3390/cli10020017

Academic Editor: Ying Ouyang

Received: 29 December 2021 Accepted: 28 January 2022 Published: 30 January 2022

**Publisher's Note:** MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

used as an indisputable rationale for the expansion of irrigation, as illustrated in the Ministry of Agricultural and Land Reclamation's (MALR) sustainable development strategy towards 2030 [3]. Moreover, the responsibility of MALR is to ensure that food production is sufficient for to meet demand and sustainable at the same time, in addition to the monitoring and evaluation of sudden climatic changes and their impact on crop productivity to mitigate climate impacts on the quality and productivity of crops under stress.

Climate change can have a severe impact on the agricultural sector and the stability of food security in Egypt and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region [4]. It is expected that crop production will be affected negatively due to the expected increases in temperature, extreme weather events, drought, plant diseases, and pests. Additionally, land use will be affected due to seawater intrusion and salinization. Water resources will be affected due to global warming and decreases in precipitation. Moreover, crop water requirements are expected to increase [5]. The compound effect of all these components represents the main challenge for researchers; moreover, the current cropping systems must be changed to comply with the future demands of the growing population and the threat of climate change [6]. The negative impacts of climate change on crop production can be reduced by the implementation of integrated farm-level adaptation strategies, starting with adopting changes including different seed varieties, planting dates, rationalizing the use of water and fertilizers, and changing irrigation intervals.

In addition, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) 1, 2, and 6, which are promoting sustainable agricultural practices to end poverty and increase water use efficiency [7], need greater efforts and resources at the country level to ensure the even and equal achievement of targets [8]. Therefore, further efforts are required to face these challenges, including more investments in agricultural and food systems and adapting sustainable alternative crops to the impact of water scarcity and climate change. For the sake of rationalizing the use of resources in the agricultural production system in Egypt, there is a need to understand the agricultural system (crops) and its related costs, returns, and profitability for farmers in terms of both land and water.

Water profitability analysis for policy planning—while still relatively a new concept has been conducted in multiple regions to assess the net return per unit of water consumed in agriculture for crop production. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, several of these studies were performed. Oulmane et al. [9] assessed the water productivity and water value of three crops under normal conditions and used water-saving technologies in Algeria. The water value was calculated using gross margin, water costs, and applied water. It highlighted the increase in net returns per cubic meter of water due to the use of water-saving technologies. In Jordan, ref. [10] conducted a multicriteria analysis for water productivity to evaluate the economic value of water under maximum yields for selected crops. The study showed date palm to be the most profitable crop regarding water productivity. In Lebanon, a water profitability analysis was conducted to optimize cropping patterns based on the net revenue per unit of water [11]. In Oman, Al-Said et al. [12] assessed the water productivity of vegetables under modern irrigation methods. They analyzed the income per unit of water for five different crops and showed the increased returns and savings gained using drip irrigation for vegetable production.

Further, economic water productivity has been assessed by scholars following the water footprint concept [13]. Chouchane et al. [14] analyzed the economic water and land productivity of 11 crops in Tunisia. The study highlighted that the highest economic water productivity was reported for tomatoes and potatoes, while the lowest was recorded for olives, which are one of the major export products of the nation. In Pakistan, a study was conducted to compare the water productivity and return per unit of water for different rice types [15].

Yakubu et al. [16] analyzed net farm income per unit of land for four major strategic crops in the Kano River irrigation project in Nigeria. The study highlighted the profitability of maize, rice, and wheat compared to tomatoes. Tashikalma et al. [17] compared the crop profitability per unit of land under both rainfed and irrigated conditions in Nigeria. The study highlighted the major inputs that are costly for farmers, which, if subsidized, could drastically improve their incomes. Khansa [18] analyzed the average farm income under normal cropping patterns and used alternative saving crops. The author showcased the potential increase in farm income and water savings by changing the cropping pattern. Similar studies were conducted in Turkey [19], Peru [20], Bolivia [21], and Mexico [22].

However, the study of water profitability has been scarcely implemented in Egypt and thus there are few data on the baseline for its assessment in the Nile Delta. The only study analyzing water profitability in Egypt was conducted by Hosni et al. [23], who assessed the economic value of water used in irrigation in three governorates. Furthermore, they used linear programming (LP) to optimize the cropping patterns of these governorates to maximize water profitability and water savings. However, Osama et al. [24] studied the net return obtained per unit area (feddan) of all allocated crops for the cropping pattern (2008–2012). They used a linear programming (LP) technique to optimize the area allocated for each crop to achieve an overall increase in net benefits. These studies were conducted using reported data and lacked local farmers' information and voices.

This study attempts to set a baseline for the water profitability of multiple strategic crops in the Egyptian Nile Delta and compares different crops in three different governorates based on primary data collected from farmers' input. These crops were selected due to their importance in terms of the cultivated area, food insecurity, economy, and employment in Egypt. The analysis sheds the light on the main factors contributing to the heterogeneity of the water profitability levels across the Nile Delta and what policy recommendations and actions could be followed to increase and improve water and land profitability and productivity for farmers.
