*4.3. Recommendations*

The above analysis revealed the need for a new paradigm shift in the Egyptian water and food sectors in an effort to address these challenges and mitigate the risks. This paradigm has three main directions in which Egypt's water sector and food sector can transform to be able to accommodate and deal with its challenges and meet future needs, including the socio-economic development ambitions. The first dimension is the digital transformation of the agricultural sector. The second dimension is the investment in the agricultural sector and focus on its development. The third dimension is to adopt more bottom-up planning and implementation to improve equity in water access and use with

respect to agricultural water investments, which are part of a bigger picture of system management, as they are efficient from economic, social, and environmental perspectives. This entails the concept of nexus governance, requiring policy actors to engage across policy domains and the public and private spheres, and by extension, strengthening human capital and institutions for policy coherence and participatory mechanisms.

The role of education and extensions services is clear in improving land and water productivity [30]. Investment in strong extension services and awareness campaigns for farmers can significantly increase water profitability and contribute to increased levels of food security. One dimension of this could be achieved through the use of digital innovations and information systems [31]. These tools can provide farmers with accurate information and viable interventions at the right time.

The prices and availability of agricultural inputs affect the net returns per feddan and water profitability as has been found in the three governorates. Increasing the allocated quantities of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides at the agricultural associations in each governorate and increasing the subsidies allocated to these items would positively impact water profitability for farmers, in particular the smallholders. In addition, providing machinery for farming and harvesting different crops at subsidized rates or through establishing farmers' associations could positively impact the profitability and respond to the lack of manpower and its high cost.

The next step required to better understand the agricultural system in the Nile Delta is to assess the water profitability of cropping sequences, not just single crops. Assessing common cropping rotations in the three governorates will paint a clearer picture of the small farmers in the region. Common rotations are the plantation of rice and sugar beet followed by cotton and then wheat, or starting with cotton and then wheat followed by rice and ending with wheat again [32]. Moreover, analyzing water profitability over a year, thus including every season, would take into account the same temporal scale for analyzing net return for farmers.

Assessing the water- and soil-quality effects on water profitability is essential, as it would open the door for understanding the links between the soil characteristics, land productivity, yield, and production inputs and costs. In addition, some crops are selected by farmers to improve soil fertility and to protect the land from deterioration. These links and benefits should be considered when analyzing water profitability.

Conservation agriculture is key to addressing the challenges related to food insecurity and climate change. Transformation of agricultural systems by adopting climate-smart agriculture practices can increase resilience while increasing productivity.

Finally, having a baseline of water profitability for different crops before COVID-19 could be the first step to evaluate potential new crops that have higher water profitability and can contribute directly or indirectly to improving food security in Egypt. Hence, to improve food security in Egypt, more information on crops' water profitability and their values in comparison to the world (similar countries) and region practices are essential to inform policymakers in deciding strategies regarding cropping patterns. This would create a backdrop based on which future patterns can be assessed and evaluated taking into account the pressures of climate change and economic development ambitions.
