**6. Conclusions and Recommendations**

The study results indicate that, since the 1960s, the annual average temperature in the KRB has been increasing, while precipitation and river discharge have been decreasing, with the exception of glacier-fed headwaters. The increase in the discharge in the upper catchment will continue until the small glaciers that still exist are melted and then a dramatic decrease in summer discharge where it is most needed for irrigation can be expected for the whole catchment, similar to other catchments [54]. In addition, there has been a drastic and significant change in landcover since 1992, most likely due to climate change impacts as well as environmental degradation and human impact. This leads to more direct run-off of precipitation which increases the risk of floods. In combination, these processes negatively impact the livelihoods and wellbeing of its communities.

About 1.9 million people live in the KRB and their livelihoods mostly rely on agriculture. Climate change impacts therefore affect food security, particularly of those depending on the household farming. Decreasing precipitation results in a depletion of water resources, in some cases leading to water scarcity. In addition, the combination of climate change impacts and strong pressure on the land use during the long period of war and conflict in the country has led to a degradation of vegetation cover in the KRB. Afghanistan is traditionally an agrarian country, with 22% of the national GDP produced in this sector. Approximately 79% of the population is engaged in farming. Agriculture is an important source of livelihood and local economy rely on that [55,56]. Agriculture and farmers are more affected by the impacts of climate change in Afghanistan [57]. The main obstacles are war and conflict in the country and a lack of effective investment and management in agriculture and irrigation sectors. Additionally, land use and land cover change due to socio-economic changes through political and economic transformation and climate change impacts is a critical issue in Afghanistan and a number of

studies have been conducted on LULC in Afghanistan [58–61]. A LULC study undertaken by FAO as compared LULC for Afghanistan between1993 and 2016 showed changes in the KRB land cover that are in line with the results of this study [19,23].

In turn, this affects the capacity of people and the environment to adapt to climate change. The strong warming trend in winter and spring lead to an earlier snow melt, which again increases the risk of flash flooding. However, there are also positive signals visible. There is a strong increase of fruit trees, which are more resilient to harsher climatic conditions and may even locally have the positive effect the microclimate. In addition, irrigated agriculture has also increased. Both of the signals show that farmers adapt automatically autonomously to the changing conditions.

In addition, the study shows that the annual discharge of the KRB is sufficient for developing the watershed if the water resources are managed in an integrated and sustainable way. The downstream part of the KRB covers a wide area with large agriculture potential, for example by multiple cropping through irrigation. At the same time, the downstream part of the KRB is very vulnerable to flash floods and droughts, which affect the livelihood and socio-economy of the community living within the watershed deeply. Therefore, integrated water resources management is key for the agricultural development, livelihoods, and local economy. Measures, like reforestation, could reduce the risk of flash floods and droughts. Other measures, which have proven their effectiveness for many catchments in a developing context, could include guidelines on best practices, the establishment of a river basin council, and adapted community-based participation approaches. Using approaches that directly involve the communities in management and decision-making processes, these collectively can improve the socio-economy and livelihoods of the people within the KRB. However, a comprehensive IWRM strategy is still missing for Afghanistan and particularly the KRB. Therefore, we hope that the results of this study contribute to informing sustainable water resources development and watershed management. In conclusion, this study argues for establishing an Integrated Water Resources Management Plan for the KRB to trigger sustainable development [62].

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, N.A.A. and V.A.; Methodology, N.A.A., S.S. and V.A.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, N.A.A.; Writing—Review & Editing, N.A.A., S.S. and V.A.; Visualization: N.A.A., S.S. and V.A., Funding: N.A.A. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Acknowledgments:** We thank Susan Cuddy from CSIRO Land and Water branch for her revision of the paper, susan.cuddy@csiro.au.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
