*3.5. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change, Variability, and Extreme Events*

In the household survey, the major climate-related events reported by respondents were climate variability (delayed onset and early termination of rainfall) and the occurrence of extreme events (Figure 7). The values in the Figure show the percentage of farmers responding "yes" to the question on the perceived occurrence of the extreme events. More than 90% of the household heads in each area reported delayed onset and early termination of rainfall. The percentage of household heads who reported drought was the highest in the lowland areas and it declined consistently as altitude increases. Frost and waterlogging were mainly the problem of farmers in the highland areas. Compared to the other two areas, the percentage of household heads who reported flood and snowfall was higher in the midland areas.

The problem that was commonly raised during the FGDs in all areas was lack of rainfall. Farmers in the lowland areas stated the problem as follows: "*it is lack of rainfall that makes us inferior to other people. Our neighbors in the other kebeles play with water. But, in this kebele, it is lack of rainfall that makes us and our children jobless; that changes our skin color; that changes our hair color to grey before we get old*" [FGD-L-9]. Farmers in another village in the lowland area further explained that they are not able to benefit from their fertile land due to lack of rainfall saying that: "*if there is rain, the hair even grows on the bare head of a person, let alone on this land. There is a lack of rainfall*" [FGD-L-10]. In particular, lack of rainfall is most pronounced during the *belg* season in the three areas, due to which farmers indicated that they are forced to produce only once a year during the *kiremt* season, abandoning the production

of *belg* crops. Farming in *kiremt* is also affected by delayed onset and early termination of rainfall. As pointed-out by farmers, "*the rain falls late after sowing time passes* ... *and due to early termination of rainfall, the farmlands get dry and crops do not grow very well*" [FGD-M-7].

**Figure 7.** Distribution of households' perceptions of climate variability and extreme events by agro-ecological settings.

Similar to the results of the household survey, evidence from the FGDs indicated that extreme events occur in the study areas with varying magnitude. Drought was boldly stated by residents of the lowland areas as follows: "*It is this problem [drought] that made us lag behind; that wasted our age; that depleted our resources. We have wide farmland; we are healthy. Our major bottleneck is drought* ... *. drought made as beggars*" [FGD-L-9]. Frost is mainly raised as a problem in the highland areas. Farmers explained that "*it [frost] comes when the crop matures. When it comes, our e*ff*ort of one year is damaged in one day*" [FGD-H-3]. According to farmers' observation, though the cold period begins in November, it has become colder than in the past and the cold period starts as early as September. The other problem identified by farmers in the highland areas was waterlogging. The frequently mentioned extreme event in the midland areas was heavy rainfall in summer, which causes erosion and exacerbates the problem of a landslide. Farmers explained that "*in the past, during the rainy season, there were foggy days with drizzle rainfall for the whole day that was conducive for agriculture. Now, rain falls heavily and erodes our soil, which also becomes a cause for a landslide*" [FGD-M-5].

Farmers have developed traditional methods of forecasting weather conditions and making farming decisions. Owing to the absence of established means of knowledge transmission, these methods are not generally known in some villages. Farmers revealed that the local-knowledge-based traditional forecast system involving the observation of various signals is known only by few elderlies and that there is a generation gap in valuing the roles of these traditional forecasts in the usual farming activities. The information obtained from the traditional forecast is not considered to be dependable for farming decision making, as farmers said, as the observed weather condition deviates from the predictions based on traditional knowledge and expectations. Consequently, observing traditional signals is not an assurance that rain will come or will come at the expected time. The limited role of traditional methods of the forecast increases the demand for modern weather information for farming activities and climate risk management. However, the farmers noted that they do not have access to weather information. When it is available through media broadcasts, it is often reported at a higher spatial scale which, according to farmers, does not show the local weather condition and hence is not relevant for farming decisions. In addition, information on the expected time of onset and cessation of rainfall is generally missing in the weather forecasts of higher spatio-temporal resolution.
