*4.3. Impacts on the Energy Mix*

As renewable energy is the key to further energy supply [55], we need to focus on the energy mix in the long-term simulation. Figure 4 illustrates the impacts on the primary energy structure in 2060 and the energy mix in the 2020 BAU scenario. The electric power industry is the main source of carbon emissions in China, especially the coal-fired plant [56]. In the BAU scenario, the primary fossil energy has significantly reduced to 32.0% in 2060. A total of 21.0% of the primary energy is from coal consumption, and oil and gas account for 11.04%, while renewables account for 68.0%. Under China's current investment situation (dynamic investment preference of each scenario), China's renewable energy will significantly thrive and accounts for a large share. However, coal still accounts for about 1/5 of the primary power. Many examples in the literature also believe that the carbon pricing mechanism may increase the renewable energy share, consistent with relevant research [57,58].

In CT and ETS scenarios, coal consumption will be nearly cut in half in 2060. Moreover, the share of renewables will increase by 3.7–4.8%. The increase will be more significant in the ETS scenario by 4.8%. The percentage of oil and gas will increase by 6.0% and 4.8% in CT and ETS scenarios, respectively. However, the increasing share does not mean increasing consumption, as the total energy demand will significantly reduce under carbon neutrality scenarios. Under the carbon neutrality target, it seems that oil will be more difficult to remove than coal. The main reason for this may be that oil is more inclined to be used by the transportation industry and service industry, which is somehow irreplaceable, especially in air and water traffic.
