*5.2. Results*

5.2.1. Additional TFP: Boundary of Strong Porter Hypothesis

Figure 6 depicts the additional TFP needed for economic neutrality during 2020–2060. The additional TFP required for carbon peak (2030) is not large, but after 2035, a higher TFP growth is needed every year to maintain GDP unchanged. For reaching the emission peak, only an additional 0.056% of total factor productivity per year is required to keep the GDP unchanged during 2020–2030. In contrast, 0.564–0.568% additional TFP is needed per year during 2020–2060 to keep the GDP unchanged for the carbon neutrality goal in 2060. It shows that the difficulty of carbon neutrality may be far more incredible than that of carbon peaking. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, we may need both policy guidance and technological change.

#### 5.2.2. Impacts on the Energy Mix

Figure 7 illustrates the energy structure of all countermeasure scenarios. To better compare the impact of TFP improvement, we also put the CT scenario and the ETS scenario into Figure 7 for better comparative analysis. The results show that an increase in TFP will further increase the share of renewable energy. The share of renewables will increase by 3.7–3.9% in CT-TFP and ETS-TFP scenarios compared with that in CT and ETS scenarios. A possible reason is that technological progress leads to the increase in TFP, which leads to lower prices and higher demand. Simultaneously, due to the limitation of carbon emissions, more energy demand can only be satisfied by the growth of renewable energy. Thus, TFP growth may increase the share of renewable energy under the constraint of carbon emissions.

**Figure 7.** Impacts on energy structure in 2060. (**a**) CT scenario in 2060; (**b**) CT-TFP scenario in 2060; (**c**) ETS scenario in 2060; (**d**) ETS-TFP scenario in 2060.
