*Article* **Ketogenic Diet Applied in Weight Reduction of Overweight and Obese Individuals with Progress Prediction by Use of the Modified Wishnofsky Equation**

**Gordana Markovikj 1, Vesna Knights <sup>1</sup> and Jasenka Gajdoš Kljusuri´c 2,\***


**Abstract:** Ketogenic diet is often used as diet therapy for certain diseases, among other things, its positive effect related to weight loss is highlighted. Precisely because of the suggestion that KD can help with weight loss, visceral obesity, and appetite control, 100 respondents joined the weight loss program (of which 31% were men and 69% were women). The aforementioned respondents were interviewed in order to determine their eating habits, the amount of food consumed, and the time when they consume meals. Basic anthropometric data (body height, body mass, chest, waist, hips, biceps, and thigh circumferences) were also collected, in order to be able to monitor their progress during the different phases of the ketogenic diet. Important information is the expected body mass during the time frame of a certain keto diet phase. This information is important for the nutritionist, medical doctor, as well as for the participant in the reduced diet program; therefore, the model was developed that modified the original equation according to Wishnofsky. The results show that women lost an average of 22.7 kg (average number of days in the program 79.5), and for men the average weight loss was slightly higher, 29.7 kg (with an average of 76.8 days in the program). The prediction of expected body mass by the modified Wishnofsky's equation was extremely well aligned with the experimental values, as shown by the Bland-Altman graph (bias for women 0.021 kg and −0.697 kg for men) and the coefficient of determination of 0.9903. The modification of the Wishnofsky equation further shed light on the importance of controlled energy reduction during the dietetic options of the ketogenic diet.

**Keywords:** ketogenic diet; overweight; obesity; modified Wishnofsky equation; modelling

#### **1. Introduction**

In recent years, obesity became a serious global health crisis with prevalence increasing nearly threefold from 1975 to 2016 [1]. Research indicates the connection between obesity and numerous diseases and health complications, such as cardiovascular diseases, various types of cancer, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), and many others [2,3]. It is important to emphasize that obesity can be prevented by establishing a balanced diet, adequate physical activity, and changes in behaviour and lifestyle [4]. Understanding the principles of energy balance is crucial [5] in approaching the global problem of the western countries: obesity. The concept of energy balance is based on the law of conservation of energy (energy conservation law: energy state of the organism = entered energy–expended energy), which states that energy cannot disappear or be created from nothing, but can only change its forms [6]. The source of energy in human diet are foods and drinks, with the main energy donors: carbohydrates, proteins, fats, and alcohol and the energy consumption varies throughout the day, but also throughout the lifespan [7].

Our organism strives for a state of energy balance and possesses regulatory mechanisms for this purpose. Regulation implies a complex physiological control system that

**Citation:** Markovikj, G.; Knights, V.; Kljusuri´c, J.G. Ketogenic Diet Applied in Weight Reduction of Overweight and Obese Individuals with Progress Prediction by Use of the Modified Wishnofsky Equation. *Nutrients* **2023**, *15*, 927. https:// doi.org/10.3390/nu15040927

Academic Editor: Javier Gómez-Ambrosi

Received: 30 December 2022 Revised: 6 February 2023 Accepted: 8 February 2023 Published: 12 February 2023

**Copyright:** © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

includes neuronal and hormonal signals from the gastrointestinal tract, pancreas, and adipose tissue that reach the hypothalamus and the autonomic nervous system that innervates muscles, organs, and adipose tissue [5]. It was proven that this integrated regulatory system has stronger protection mechanisms for the loss of body mass than for the prevention of excess energy accumulation, and therefore there is a greater chance for the success of increasing body mass than reducing it [8]. The reduction in body mass is the result of a negative energy balance, i.e., increased energy consumption compared to intake [6]; however, sole reduction in energy intake does not result in continuous (infinite) and proportional loss of body mass. Reduction requires temporary changes in diet and physical activity, while long-term maintenance requires permanent changes, which seems to be more difficult [9] because studies show that 35 to 80% of individuals, who reduced at least 10% of their initial body mass, fail to maintain the reduced body mass for more than a year [10].

As successful reduction in body mass is classified, intentional loss of at least 10% of the original body mass is maintained at that level for at least one year. The criterion of 10% was set because already then the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases was significantly reduced [11]. So, with the aim of a better understanding of an observed problem, models are developed, among which mathematical models were developed to try to understand the non-linearity of body mass loss during energy reduction as one of approaches in dealing with obesity. Numerous mathematical models were designed for the purpose of predicting body mass loss, which differ from each other according to the concept of how energy is stored and consumed [12]. The first such model, which combined all the knowledge about calories and energy metabolism developed for predicting the expected body mass based on the timeframe of energy intake reduction is the Wishnofski model from 1958 [13]. Doctor Max Wishnofsky researched energy from food, how it is stored in the body, and by what amount it is necessary to reduce energy intake in order to lose 1 kg of body mass [14]. He designed a regression model that was supposed to serve as a universal measure for assessing body mass change based on an energy intake reduction in a known time frame and with a caloric equivalent of one pound of lost or gained body mass of 3500 kcal (for 1 kg–approximately 7700 kcal) [12]:

$$\text{Weight\\_loss\\_[lb]} = E\_s \left[\text{kcal/day}\right] \cdot \frac{\text{t\\_days\\_}}{3500 \left[\frac{\text{kcal}}{lb}\right]} \tag{1}$$

where:

*Es*—imposed daily deficit in energy stores (reduced energy intake or increased exercise generated energy output), [kcal/day];

*t*—duration of the diet [days].

Studies show that different diet patterns influence diet changes and maintain reduced body weight [2,15], and one of them is the ketogenic diet, which is characterized by a significant reduced intake of carbohydrates (<30 g/day) and standard protein intake (1.2–1.5 g/kg of ideal body weight or 1.0–1.2 g/kg of fat free mass) [16]. This diet is also often used in diet therapy of obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, migraines, polycystic ovary syndrome, and even epilepsy [17–22]. There are several types of eating patterns within the keto diet. A standard ketogenic diet implies that fats make up 70% of the daily energy intake (DEI), proteins 20%, and carbohydrates only 10%. In addition to the standard one, the cyclic ketogenic diet includes periods of carbohydrate compensation (after every 5 days the diet is followed by 2 days with increased carbohydrate intake), a targeted ketogenic diet that allows the addition of carbohydrates during periods of intense physical activity (25 to 50 g half an hour before training), and a high-protein ketogenic diet that is similar to the standard diet, but the macronutrient intake ratio is changed (fats: proteins: carbohydrates = 60:35:5) [23].

According to all of the above, the aim of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of the Wishnofsky equation based on collected data of people on a ketogenic diet. Several requirements were studied, the most important of which is the accuracy of predicting the course of body mass loss over a certain period of time, as well as different phases during the energy restriction and macronutrient intake based on the ketogenic diet guidelines.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

In the study were included 100 healthy adults (31% of them are males) from Skopje, North Macedonia, enrolled in the program of weight reduction by following keto diet principles. Their anthropometric data (weight, height, circumferences of: chest, waist (two places: (i) narrowest part and (ii) at the navel region), hips, biceps, and thighs), diet habits before the diet, and some basic information related to their food intake were collected in an individual interview with a nutritionist. During the interview were collected such data as frequency of consumption of some nutrition dense food (fruit and vegetables) as well as caloric food (sweets, salty snacks, seeds, and nuts) and beverages (carbonated drinks vs water). The time of meal consumption was also recorded. The measurements were collected since April 2022. All respondents signed the agreement that their data can be used exclusively for scientific purposes, and the principles of the GDPR were respected.

Observed anthropometric parameters of the participants were collected following the recommendation of Casadei and Kiel [24] and they are given in Table 1.


**Table 1.** Basic anthropometric parameters of the subjects on the first medical examination.

\*: Statistically significant differences (*p* < 0.05); SD: standard deviation; BMI: body mass index; and W0: body mass on the beginning of diet program.

In addition to the anthropometric parameters, for each subject, anamnesis was taken about the basic state of health, as well as the number and type of meals and the time of consumption. At the first medical examination, the subjects' body mass, body height, and circumferences of arm, leg, waist, and hips were measured. The initial body mass index (BMI) was expressed as the ratio of the body mass to the square of the body height, and the target body mass for each subject was obtained in the range for the targeted normal BMI (20–25 kg/m2).

At each follow-up examination, subjects' body mass and circumference were measured to monitor progress. In the case of adequate progress, the allowed energy intake is increased, i.e., the person moves to the next phase of the ketogenic diet. However, if at some point there is a stagnation of progress or an increase in body mass, the subjects are returned to the previous phase and their energy intake is reduced.

The Wishnofsky equation was used because it depends on the phase of the body mass reduction process, and was modified because during the ketogenic diet were included seven different phases (Table 2) and the average energy nutrient composition for the last phase is given in the supplementary Table S1 for menus created by a dietitian and medical doctor.


**Table 2.** Permissible ranges of energy intake with regard to the phase of the ketogenic diet.

a, b-different energy levels of the same phase of the ketogenic diet.

According to the energy intake of different phases, the Wishnofsky equation (Equation (1)) was modified as follows:

$$W(t) = W\_0 - 0.454 \* \Delta EB \* \frac{t}{3500} \tag{2}$$

$$\mathcal{W}t\_j = \mathcal{W}t\_{j-1} - 0.454 \ast EB\_i \ast \frac{t\_j}{3500} \tag{3}$$

where

*W*0—initial body mass [kg]; *W(t)*—expected body mass [kg] after *t* days where the energy intake was reduced for Δ*EB* (reduced daily energy intake [kcal/day] compared to the required one);

*Wtj*−1—initial body mass for the new ketogenic diet phase (*i* = 1, ... , 7), the ketogenic diet phase (*i*) can be repeated several times (*j* = 1, ... , n) and the last one ends when *Wtj* = *Wd* (desired body mass). When calculating *EBi*, the mean values of the energy range of the different phases of the ketogenic diet were used (Table 2).

The flow chart (Figure 1) presents the ketogenic diet implementation process from the initial body mass (*W*0) to the desired one (*Wd*). Patients start with 800 kcal in phase I until they reach 48% of the difference between initial body mass (*W*0) and the desired (*Wd*). After this phase, the energy intake is increased to 900 kcal (Phase IIa). By reaching 64% of the difference between initial body mass (*W*0) and the desired one (*Wd*), the daily energy intake is upgraded to 1000 kcal (IIb phase). In phase III, the patient reached less than 80% of the difference between *W*<sup>0</sup> and *Wd,* and the daily calorie intake is than 1150 kcal. In phase IVa, the patient reached less than 85% of the difference (*W*0–*Wd*) with 1300 kcal per day. Phase IVb, starts when the patient reaches 90% of the difference between initial body mass and desired (*W*0–*Wd*) with 1400 kcal per day. The last phase (phase V) increases the energy intake to 1500 kcal when the achieved body mass is less the 5% from the desired one.

As variables are indicated values for body masses that were recorded for the patient after each examination at a certain diet phase, *Wtj*, *j* is the number of check controls, while other primary parameters are: *W*<sup>0</sup> as the initial body weight, *Wd* as the desired body weight, and previously mentioned *EB* as intake of energy during the day.

Patients who are over-weighted, but still not obese, and where the difference between the initial body mass and the desired one (*W*0–*Wd)* is less than 48%, the diet is directed immediately into the second phase of the diet (*i* = 2: Phase IIa). If this is not the case, the diet plan will start with the first phase. The third phase is approached when the patient reaches 80% of the desired weight loss. In the remaining stages, the patient loses the remaining 20% of body mass.

**Figure 1.** Flow chart presenting ketogenic diet phases.

In addition to all measurements, the expected body mass during each examination was also calculated using the Wishnofsky equation (based on the body mass recorded at the previous examination, the number of days since the previous examination, and the energy intake in that phase). None of three variables used in the calculation are a constant; body mass differs each time, and energy intake also changes analogously, i.e., the phase of the ketogenic diet. The number of days since the previous examination is different for each person.

At the end of the research, the data were statistically processed and the actual situation and progress were compared with the prediction based on the Wishnofsky equation.

All calculations were conducted by use of MS Excel. Calculated were the (i) minimal and maximal values in the observed data set, (ii) standard measure of central tendency (mean, mode), and (iii) standard deviation (SD) as a measure of dispersion. Relative frequencies (as percentage) were used in the display of results related to the eating habits of people involved in the weight loss program. Box-whiskers plot was used to show the progress of body mass loss and the reduced body mass index. The Bland–Altman chart is used to show the effectiveness of predicting body mass using the modified Wishnofsky equation. A simple linear regression was used to show the agreement of body mass data in a certain phase of the ketogenic diet with the exact body mass measured during the regular examination.

#### **3. Results**

During the first examination, an interview was conducted (with each subject) in which data were recorded on the frequency of overweight and/or obesity in the family (Figure 2), their eating habits, i.e., the frequency and time of eating (Table 3), and certain types of food (Table 4).


**Table 3.** Frequency of consumption of certain foods and drinks.

<sup>1</sup> Per day; carb. drinks: carbonated drinks; different letters for investigated food group indicate significant differences for the observed consumed amount.


**Table 4.** Number of meals and their distribution during the day.

\* Time is expressed in the form 0–24 h; SD: standard deviation.

**Figure 2.** Prevalence of being overweight and/or obesity in the family (different lowercase letters: significant differences in the frequency of overweight or obese family members, within the same gender; different capital letters: significant difference in the frequency of overweight or obese family members within different gender).

From the prevalence of obesity in the family, differences in the answers of the male and female population are visible; however, research by [25] Sattler and associates (2018) shows that it is weight-based stigmatization with motivation to exercise and physical activity in overweight individuals in connection with different genders.

Information on the frequency of consumption of certain foods (sweet, salty, and seeds) and drinks was a source of information on the quality of eating habits (Table 3). Only one third of female and 48.39% female subjects consumed non or less than 50 g of sweets per week, while chips (including other salty snacks) were consumed by over 50% of subjects, regardless the gender is consuming in amounts less than 50 g/week. Unfortunately, it is a devastating fact that the amount of fruit and vegetables consumed during the week is limited to small amounts, indicating that energy-rich food, with low nutritional density, dominates their diet. Higher intake of fruits and vegetables increased weight loss [26]. In the investigated group, the frequency of consuming vegetables was significantly lower, although it can be consumed as a side dish, salad, etc. The following finding is related with the regional consumer habits, including high consumption of nuts and seeds. In the conversation during the interview, it was clear that seeds and nuts are consumed between meals in uncontrolled amounts, although the average caloric contribution in 100 g is in the range of 400–600 kcal [27].

Consumption of beverages shows an exceptional representation of carbonated beverages compared to water, which is consumed most often in the amount of 1–2 L in the

male population (38.71%). Carbonated mineral water is also included in CO2 beverages. Over-weighted and obese individuals have higher demand on fluid intake, and improved hydration is a commonly used strategy by nutritionists to prevent overeating with the goal of promoting a healthy weight among patients [28]. It is a worrying fact that almost 56.52% of women and even 74.19% of men in the group of respondents do not consume water on a daily basis.

However, it is not only the combination of poor nutrition that is related to the problem of excessive body weight or obesity of the respondents, there is also the number of meals and their distribution during the day (Table 4).

In order to additionally determine the frequency of the most common number of meals in the respondents' answers, the mode value was also calculated. Female subjects have more meals (mode value is 3 vs. 2 of the male population, respectively). Late meals dominate (second meal at around 4 pm) while the first meal is extremely late (regardless of gender, around 10 or 11 am) and a lot of them have late night meals (around midnight).

The participants reduced their daily energy intake, guided by the ketogenic diet principles. Successful progress of the subjects can be seen in Table 5.


**Table 5.** Observed parameters on the end of the diet program.

\*: Statistically significant differences (*p* < 0.05); SD: standard deviation; and BMI: body mass index.

Such an approach in body weight reductions requires numerous examinations (6.8 for females and 8 for male subjects) and a long period of time in the program (79.5 and 76.8 for female and male subjects, respectively).

The reduction in all measured circumferences is dominantly in the waist and hip region for both genders (more than 20 cm reduction).

Although the average body mass that was planned and achieved differs for both genders (Table 5), the success can be seen in Figure 3, indicating the achievement in body mass loss, as well as for the decrease in the body mass index. The first impression is that the male subjects failed to achieve the expected body mass index of normal nutrition. However, the male population more actively accepted physical activity, especially exercise, and therefore their body mass index is slightly higher due to an increase in muscle mass.

**Figure 3.** Box-whisker plots of: (**a**) reduced body masses of female and male subjects; (**b**) reduced BMI for female and male subjects enrolled in the ketogenic reduction diet program. Description of what is contained in the second panel.

An accurate perception of the expected body weight after a certain time of reduction in energy intake is necessary for people who are on a weight loss program, but also for nutritionists who lead the program in order to design the appropriate next step of the weight management program [29]. Therefore, last results are devoted to the efficiency of the modified Wishnofsky equation in predicting expected body mass after a certain phase of their diet. It is suggested to use correlations and regressions to assess the agreement between the two quantitative measurement methods, as in our case with the experimental values of body mass, and the predicted one by use of modified equation by Wishnofsky. Correlation will give an insight into the relationship between one variable and another, but will not indicate differences, and thus is not an ideal method for assessing comparability between methods. An alternative is the Bland–Altman graph, which as a basis for quantifying the agreement between two quantitative measurements offers the study of the relationship of the mean difference in the limits of agreement. The Bland–Altman graph defines intervals of agreement, and acceptable limits must be defined in advance, based on the set goals [30]. Our agreement is presented in Figure 4. For both genders, the bias values are very close to zero (−0.697 kg and 0.021 kg) for male and female measures, respectively. The error is 0.0614 in prediction of male body mass and 0.058 in predicting female body mass of a certain phase of the ketogenic diet. A certain proportion of outliers (Figure 4., dots outside the area of limits of agreement (±1.96 × SD)) is visible, which is dominantly the result of non-adherence to the principles of the keto diet, and precisely the difference between the expected body mass (>5%) vs. the measured body mass during the control examination, which is the indication of relapse. In the supplement material, Figure S1 shows the repetition of ketogenic diet phases for one relapsed participant who started the program from the beginning for three times. The disproportion between the expected body mass (calculated by the modified Wishnofsky's equation) and the measured mass is evident, and greater than ±5%. Here, it must be emphasized that none of the input data of the respondents were taken as an outlier (precisely the extreme values, such as the body weight of 237 kg of a male person) that influence the increase in the error. For this reason, the regression line of the experimental values of body masses and those obtained by the modified model is shown (Figure 5).

**Figure 4.** Bland–Altman plot for body mass of different phases of ketogenic diet for (**a**) female and (**b**) male subjects.

**Figure 5.** Compatibility of estimated body masses with the modified Wishnofsky equation (*Wt*) during the reduction ketogenic diet and established body masses at the end of the program.

The last efficient test is presented with the regression line of the body masses measured during the examinations and those predicted by the use of the modified equation of Wishnofsky (Figure 5), and it is clear that, even with outliers in the data set, there is still an extremely strong connection between the observed data (*R*<sup>2</sup> = 0.9903).

#### **4. Discussion**

In order to avoid the yo-yo effect and preserve weight loss progress, Wing and Phelan [31] defined six key strategies that should be followed: (i) increased level of physical activity (1 h/day), (ii) change in eating habits in the context of avoiding energy-rich foods and foods rich in fats, (iii) regular breakfast (latest in 2 h after waking up), (iv) regular monitoring of body mass, (v) constant eating pattern, and (vi) reacting to minor mistakes by correcting them in a timely manner so that they do not cause a greater return of lost body mass and causing a negative impact on the weight loss progress. Theoretically, thebasic principle of losing weight is quite simple: spend more energy than you take in. However, while the fact is that we have to reduce our calorie intake, it is important to know the exact source and amount of calories eaten, and whether the body can be influenced in the tendency to lose and later to restore the balance. The primary "fuel" of the human body is

glucose, i.e., carbohydrates. Therefore, when glucose stores are low, as is the case during a ketogenic diet, the central nervous system must find an alternative source of energy [4]. Then, the energy source becomes ketone bodies–acetoacetate, beta-hydroxybutyrate, and acetone. These molecules are the product of ketogenesis that takes place in the mitochondrial matrix in the liver. Under normal conditions, they are found in the body in very low concentrations (<0.3 mmol/L). Given that they are similar in structure to glucose, they have the ability to use a glucose transporter to cross the blood–brain barrier to be used as an energy source when they reach a concentration of 4 mmol/L in the body. The described state of elevated levels of ketone bodies in the body is called "ketosis" [32].

It is believed that this mechanism forces the body, due to the lack of glucose, i.e., carbohydrates in the diet, to consume fat reserves and thereby reduce the amount of fat tissue and total body mass. In addition, Ketone bodies serve as an alternative energy source for brain metabolism [33]. Bypassing the traditional ways of releasing energy through glycolysis in favour of using ketone bodies has a significant effect on the body, and although the entire mechanism is not fully understood, it is clear that bypassing the metabolism of carbohydrates in the brain can also lead to positive health effects, such as a reduced frequency of epileptic seizures [5,34].

The ketogenic diet guidelines show that the basis of the diet should be fats. Unsaturated fatty acids are allowed, such as nuts, seeds, avocado, tofu, and olive oil, but a higher intake of saturated fatty acids is emphasized, such as butter, animal fat, coconut oil, butter, etc. Proteins are the next macronutrient when considering the share of daily energy intake. There are no big differences in the recommendations of protein sources, but poultry meat, fish, and red meat are recommended in larger quantities than eggs, cheese and milk, and dairy products. In the end, carbohydrates remain [16,23]. As can be seen in our investigated group, the (i) time of consumption and (ii) the number of meals are also important issues related to being overweight. A study conducted among Japanese women showed that those who consumed late dinners or bedtime snacks were more likely to skip breakfast, which explains the late first meal of the investigated subjects. The same study concluded that having a late dinner or bedtime snack is associated with a higher probability of being overweight/obesity [35]. Low-carb vegetables are allowed, i.e., green leafy vegetables, broccoli, cauliflower, Brussels sprouts, asparagus, peppers, onions, garlic, cucumber, mushrooms, etc. In addition to vegetables, fruits contain a high proportion of carbohydrates, and therefore only berries are recommended [36]. Extensive literature overview in the meta-analysis conducted by Arnotti and Bamber [26] investigated the fruit and vegetable consumption in overweight or obese individuals (3719 participants), and it was shown that the effect was large (−2.81 kg; *p* < 0.001). Lipid metabolism, which is a key factor in planning body mass reduction, is an extremely complex process, and models are available that simulate its development with the aim of understanding its biological processes [37]. The models can also be used to optimize and define sustainable diet indicators where the ketogenic diet shows success [38,39]. In order to help both nutritionists and people who are on a weight loss program, a modified model of weight gain from the Wishnofsky equation was proposed. Having a perception of what to expect after a certain period of reduced energy intake is more than encouraging for participants in the weight loss program [25]. Decades after Wishnofsky's equations, different mathematical models were created for predicting expected body mass in a certain time frame based on the law of conservation of energy, and those models differ according to differences in the understanding of what energy consumption entails and what the energy state of the organism entails [40]. The main requirement of a model is its simplicity and acceptable error [37–39]. Our results show that the prediction of expected body mass during the reduction keto diet using the modified Wishnofsky equation is extremely well aligned with the actual progress of people in the weight loss program, regardless of gender. The modification of the equation that includes changes in the phases of energy intake during the ketogenic diet is important because it is not a linear relation of body mass loss, but a non-linear process that is taken into account in this way. An extremely important factor is the time (t) of a certain phase

of the diet in which a person establishes control over eating habits and continues with a further constant decrease in body weight. Deviations greater than 5.8% in women and 6.1% in men are an indicator of non-adherence to the basic principles of the diet, and are a corrective factor for the person on a diet and their nutritionist, because one of the goals is certainly the prevention of the "yo-yo" effect in the respondents. Thus, the so-called confidence interval values in the Bland–Altman graph will indicate the above and that the modified Wishnofsky equation did not successfully predict the expected body mass. This effect was confirmed in his research by Thomas and colleagues [13], who state that the use of the Wishnofsky's equation is a rule that is easy to apply, but can lead to an error in predicting body mass loss; however, in the absence of simple and most understandable solutions, it is also an acceptable smaller error [39] in the expected value of body mass during the weight loss program.

As with each method, this model has also a disadvantage: it does not explain the metabolic adaptations that occur in the body, and it also does not take physical activity as an input in the calculations. The average BMI for the male population was slightly higher than 25 kg/m2, but according to the findings of Weber and co-worker [21], ketogenic diet helped in preserving muscle mass in patients with cancer, and the study of Pasiakos and coworkers [41] conducted on adults varying levels of dietary protein on body composition during energy deficit concluded that consuming dietary protein at levels exceeding recommendations may protect fat-free mass during short-term weight loss. The physical activity in obese people [25] will also affect the increase in muscle mass and consequently affect the BMI, although BMI does not distinguish muscle and fat mass. The focus is exclusively on the energy intake and the time frame of its reduction. Given the limited time period of this research, future research should include physical activity as well as the energy intake during the stabilization of energy intake after the restriction, because the potential of the model was confirmed also for those who had phases in which they returned to increased and inappropriate energy intake.

#### **5. Conclusions**

The implementation of supervised body weight loss, with the guidelines of the ketogenic diet, is primarily focused on the reduction in carbohydrates and energy. The proportion of body mass loss is dictated by the sequence of phases of the diet, and with medical supervision, the third phase (of 1300 kcal) of the diet occurs after 60–80% of the target body mass loss (*Wt-W*0). For the patient, cognition of the flow and duration of the diet itself is extremely important, and it is necessary to use tools such as prediction equations for body mass loss over a certain period of time. Body mass loss in different phases of the ketogenic diet can be effectively predicted by applying the equation by Wishnofsky, which represents a simple mathematical model that relatively accurately predicts the course of body mass change. It does not require a large number of input variables, which makes it useful for clinical practice, as well to monitor the progress and helping in creating an effective program for body weight loss, especially due to the large problem of obesity in the world.

Given that the modified model of Wishnofksy's equation is proposed for predicting body mass reduction, taking into account that the person adheres to the prescribed guidelines and certain energy intake, the errors that occur are the result of the selection and procedures of the subjects, not the model itself. In this paper, an algorithm for the flow of the phases of the keto diet is generated. Following this algorithm leads to a reliable result of the desired weight. This is a good start for further research, as the next step would be to create a program that generates a variety of food and satisfies this algorithm model.

**Supplementary Materials:** The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https: //www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/nu15040927/s1, Figure S1: Trend of the expected body mass (BM) and measured body mass for a relapsed individual.; Table S1: Average energy and nutrient content of the 5th phase of the ketogenic diet.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, V.K. and J.G.K.; methodology, J.G.K..; validation, G.M., V.K. and J.G.K.; formal analysis, J.G.K.; investigation, G.M.; resources, G.M.; data curation, V.K. and J.G.K.; writing—original draft preparation, G.M., V.K. and J.G.K.; writing—review and editing, V.K. and J.G.K.; visualization, V.K. and J.G.K.; supervision, V.K. and J.G.K.; project administration, G.M.; funding acquisition, G.M. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, and approved by the Institutional Review Board of Универзитет "Cв. Климент Охридски"—Битoлa, Технoлoшкo—технички фaкултет Bелес (protocol code 10-168/1 approved on 28 April 2022).

**Informed Consent Statement:** Written informed consent was obtained from the patient(s) to publish this paper.

**Data Availability Statement:** The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

**Acknowledgments:** We would like to thank our participants for giving their written consent to the use of their data for processing and publication in this paper.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


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**Khaled Alabduljabbar 1,2, Werd Al-Najim <sup>2</sup> and Carel W. le Roux 2,\***


**Abstract:** Obesity is a complex and chronic disease that raises the risk of various complications. Substantial reduction in body weight improves these risk factors. Lifestyle changes, including physical activity, reduced caloric ingestion, and behavioral therapy, have been the principal pillars in the management of obesity. In recent years, pharmacologic interventions have improved remarkably. The Semaglutide Treatment Effect in People with Obesity (STEP) program is a collection of phase-III trials geared toward exploring the utility of once-weekly 2.4 mg semaglutide administered subcutaneously as a pharmacologic agent for patients with obesity. All the STEP studies included diet and exercise interventions but at different intensities. This review paper aims to explore the impact of the behavioral programs on the effect of semaglutide 2.4 mg on weight loss. The results of the STEP trials supported the efficacy of high-dose, once-weekly 2.4 mg semaglutide on body weight reduction among patients with obesity with/without diabetes mellitus. Semaglutide was associated with more gastrointestinal-related side effects compared to placebo but was generally safe and well tolerated. In all the STEP studies, despite the varying intestines of the behavioral programs, weight loss was very similar. For the first time, there may be a suggestion that these behavioral programs might not increase weight reduction beyond the effect of semaglutide. Nevertheless, the importance of nutritional support during substantial weight loss with pharmacotherapy needs to be re-evaluated.

**Keywords:** semaglutide; obesity; STEP program; weight loss; weight management; clinical trial; GLP-1

#### **1. Introduction**

Obesity is a complex and chronic disease and has a wide array of complications, including hypertension, hypercholesteremia, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers [1–6]. Lifestyle interventions, comprising physical activity, reduced caloric ingestion, and behavioral therapy, have been the principal pillars in the management of obesity supported by pharmacotherapy and bariatric surgery [7–9]. However, weight loss maintenance has remained challenging [10]. Pharmacotherapy is usually used for individuals with a body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 or ≥27 kg/m2 with ≥1 coexisting obesity complication [7–9], but the cost, efficacy, and tolerability curbs its utilization [11].

Only a few obesity medications have received approval by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), namely naltrexone-bupropion combination, phentermine-topiramate combination, orlistat, setmelanotide, liraglutide, and semaglutide [12–14]. These medications, except phentermine-topiramate, are also approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to be used in Europe [15,16]. The mechanism of actions and the approval status for these medications are presented in Table 1.

#### **Citation:** Alabduljabbar, K.;

Al-Najim, W.; le Roux, C.W. The Impact Once-Weekly Semaglutide 2.4 mg Will Have on Clinical Practice: A Focus on the STEP Trials. *Nutrients* **2022**, *14*, 2217. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/nu14112217

Academic Editors: Javier Gomez-Ambrosi and Sara Baldassano

Received: 19 April 2022 Accepted: 24 May 2022 Published: 26 May 2022

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**Copyright:** © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).


**Table 1.** Mechanism of action and approval status of main obesity medications [15,16].

Semaglutide belongs to the family of glucagon-like peptide-1 analogs. Mechanistically, semaglutide is an incretin, which blocks glucagon release, postpones gastric clearing, reduces energy intake, stimulates satiety, and reduces hunger and appetite via peripheral and central nervous system actions [17]. Semaglutide was initially approved for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus [18]. The observation that the GLP-1 analogs reduce body weight prompted the exploration of this class of medications as drugs to treat obesity [19–21].

The Semaglutide Treatment Effect in People with Obesity (STEP) program is a collection of 15 multi-institutional, phase-III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials geared toward the authorization of once-weekly 2.4 mg semaglutide administered subcutaneously as an obesity medication. Each trial was designed to investigate the efficacy and safety of 2.4 mg semaglutide in people with overweight or obesity, taking in consideration patients' ethnicities, certain comorbidities, different age groups, or the parallel control arm interventions. Six of the program trials (STEP 1–4, 6, and 8) were published; the STEP 5 trial has been completed but not yet published, and the remining trials, including STEP 7, have not been completed yet. Herein, we document a narrative review focused on the clinical summary of the STEP trials, highlight limitations, and outline future directions, with a specific focus on the potential future role of lifestyle changes in obesity management involving such effective medications.

#### **2. The STEP 1 Trial**

The STEP 1 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03548935) included adults with obesity or overweight (BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2) with at least one obesity complication [22]. Major exclusion criteria included diabetes mellitus, HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or the use of anti-obesity medications in the past 12 weeks. In a 2:1 ratio, the trial randomized 1961 adults to either semaglutide or placebo. Semaglutide was administered in a dose-escalated fashion: the initial once-weekly dose of 0.25 mg was sustained for four weeks; the dose was then titrated to 0.5 mg, 1 mg, 1.7 mg, and 2.4 mg every four weeks. The 2.4 mg once-weekly dose was then maintained for 54 weeks. Overall, the duration of the study was 75 weeks; the treatment (semaglutide or placebo) lasted for 68 weeks, trailed by a follow-up interval of 7 weeks with no medication. The protocol included an unsupervised lifestyle intervention administered to all participants, consisting of a daily 500 kcal deficit diet and weekly 150 min of physical activity. The average age and BMI of the participants were 46 years and 37.9 kg/m2, respectively. The majority of the participants were females (74.1%) and of White ethnicity (75.1%). Less than half of the participants had prediabetes (43.7%).

Semaglutide with lifestyle intervention resulted in more weight loss over 68 weeks compared to placebo with lifestyle intervention (mean difference (MD) = –12.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI): −13.4, −11.5). Moreover, the proportions of participants treated with semaglutide achieving ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss at week 68 were 86.4%, 69.1%, and 50.5%, respectively. In addition, the semaglutide arm had substantial improvements in various anthropometric (BMI and waist circumference), inflammatory (C-reactive protein), blood pressure (diastolic and systolic), glycemic (HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose), and lipid (total cholesterol, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) parameters in contrast to the placebo arm. Semaglutide also substantially improved physical function scores compared to the placebo assessed by the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and the Impact of Weight on Quality of Life–Lite Clinical Trials Version (IWQOL-Lite-CT) questionnaire.

The rate of any reported side effect was higher with semaglutide contrasted with placebo (89.7% vs. 86.4%, respectively). The number of reported serious side effects was greater in the semaglutide arm compared to the placebo arm. The rate of drug termination was also greater in the semaglutide arm (7.0% vs. 3.1%), mostly due to gastrointestinal-related symptoms (4.5% vs. 0.8%). Gallbladder-related symptoms occurred in 2.6% of patients in the semaglutide arm and 1.2% in the placebo arm. The most commonly documented side effects in ≥10% of the semaglutide vs. placebo patients were nausea (44.2% vs. 17.4%), diarrhea (31.5% vs. 15.9%), vomiting (24.8% vs. 6.6%), constipation (23.4% vs. 9.5%), and nasopharyngitis (21.5% vs. 20.3%). The rates of hypoglycemia, acute pancreatitis, and injection site reactions were infrequent in the participants who received semaglutide (0.6%, 0.2%, and 5%, respectively).

In summary, among patients with BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2, the STEP 1 trial concluded that once-weekly 2.4 mg semaglutide plus usual lifestyle adjustment was more beneficial than lifestyle interventions alone in reducing body weight and other cardiometabolic risk factors.

#### **3. The STEP 2 Trial**

The STEP 2 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03552757) included adults with BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 and HbA1c ranging from 7% to 10%; all participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus ≥6 months prior to study screening [23]. In a 1:1:1 ratio, the trial randomized 1210 participants to 2.4 mg semaglutide, 1.0 mg semaglutide, or placebo. All the participants in this study had the same lifestyle intervention as the STEP 1 trial. Semaglutide was administered in a dose-escalated fashion until reaching the targeted maintenance doses. Overall, the study duration was 75 weeks; the treatment (semaglutide or placebo) lasted for 68 weeks, trailed by a follow-up period of 7 weeks with no medication. Participants' average age and BMI were 55 years and 35.7 kg/m2, respectively. The average HbA1c and interval of type 2 diabetes mellitus were 8.1% and 8 years. Slightly more than half of the participants were females (50.9%) and of White ethnicity (62.1%).

The 2.4 mg semaglutide with lifestyle intervention reduced body weight more than placebo and lifestyle intervention during the 68 weeks (MD = –6.2%, 95% CI: −7.3, −5.2). Moreover, the proportions of participants who had ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss at week 68 were 68.8%, 45.6%, and 25.8%, respectively. Semaglutide also improved systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, waist circumference, and physical function scores. In addition, the analysis of exploratory secondary endpoints revealed beneficial reductions in lipid (triglycerides, very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and free fatty acids), glycemic (HbA1c, fasting serum insulin, and fasting plasma glucose), inflammatory (C-reactive protein), and blood pressure (diastolic) profiles in support of the semaglutide 2.4 mg arm compared to the placebo arm.

The rate of any reported side effect was greater in the 2.4 mg semaglutide arm contrasted with the placebo arm (87.6% vs. 76.9%). Moreover, the number of reported serious side effects was comparable between both treatment arms. Additionally, the rate of drug termination was higher in the semaglutide 2.4 mg arm (6.2% vs. 3.5%), mostly secondary to gastrointestinal-related symptoms (4.2% vs. 1.0%). Gallbladder-related symptoms occurred in only 0.2% and 0.7% of the semaglutide 2.4 mg and placebo arms, respectively. In contrast with the placebo arm, the most commonly documented side effects in ≥10% of the semaglutide 2.4 mg patients included nausea (33.7% vs. 9.2%), diarrhea (21.3% vs. 11.9%), vomiting (21.8% vs. 2.7%), constipation (17.4% vs. 5.5%), and nasopharyngitis (16.9% vs. 14.7%). The rates of hypoglycemia, acute pancreatitis, and injection site reactions were infrequent in the semaglutide 2.4 mg arm (5.7%, 0.2%, and 3.0%, respectively).

In summary, among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus and BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2, the STEP 2 trial concluded that once-weekly 2.4 mg semaglutide plus lifestyle modification was better than lifestyle modification alone for weight loss and other cardiometabolic risk factors.

#### **4. The STEP 3 Trial**

The STEP 3 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03611582) included adults with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria as the STEP 1 trial [22,24]. In a 1:1 ratio, the trial randomized 611 participants to either semaglutide combined with very intensive behavior therapy or placebo with very intensive behavior therapy. The intensive behavior therapy was the major difference between STEP 3 compared to STEP 1 and STEP 2 trials [22,23]. It comprised a low-calorie diet during the opening 8 weeks, in addition to concentrated behavioral therapy sessions and physical exercise during the 68 weeks.

The participants were provided with a low-calorie diet (1000–1200 kcal/day) served as meal replacements for the first 8 weeks. Then, they were gradually transferred to hypocaloric diet (1200–1800 kcal/day) of conventional food for the remainder of the trial. After eight weeks, the calorie intake was calculated based on randomization body weight unless the participant's BMI reached ≤22.5 kg/m2. The recommended caloric intake was then re-calculated with no energy deficit until the end of the trial.

Physical activity was prescribed from randomization and was tailored to achieve a goal of 100 min of physical activity/week. Participants were counseled to incorporate moderateintensity activities within the exercises and were requested to increase their weekly physical activity target by 25 min every four weeks to reach 200 min/week. Furthermore, a total of 30 counseling sessions of intensive behavioral therapy were provided over the 68 weeks, covering various topics related to dietary changes, physical activities, and behavioral strategies to ensure the appropriate implementation and compliance with the intervention.

Similar to the STEP 1 and STEP 2 trials [22,23], semaglutide was administered in a dose-escalated fashion until reaching the targeted maintenance dose. The duration of the study was 75 weeks; the treatment (semaglutide with very intensive behavior therapy or placebo with very intensive behavior therapy) lasted for 68 weeks, trailed by a follow-up period of 7 weeks with no medication. The average age and BMI of participants were 46 years and 38 kg/m2, respectively. The majority of the research participants were females (81.0%) and of White ethnicity (76.1%).

Semaglutide with very intensive behavior therapy resulted in a more significant weight loss from baseline to week 68 compared to placebo with very intensive behavior therapy (MD = –10.3%, 95% CI: −12.0, −8.6). Moreover, the proportions of research participants who achieved ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% body weight loss at week 68 were 86.6%, 75.3%, and 55.8%, respectively. The placebo with intensive behavior therapy was also effective, albeit less so than semaglutide with intensive behavior, in causing ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss at 68 weeks in 46.7%, 27.0%, and 13.2% of patients, respectively. Semaglutide had significant improvements in systolic blood pressure and waist circumference but was not different in the physical functioning scores compared to the placebo arm. Similar to the previous STEP trials, the analysis of exploratory secondary endpoints revealed beneficial reductions in various lipid, glycemic, inflammatory, and blood pressure (diastolic) profiles in support of the semaglutide arm compared to the placebo arm.

The rate of ≥1 reported side effect was comparable between the semaglutide and placebo arms (95.8% vs. 96.1%). Moreover, the number of reported serious side effects was greater in the semaglutide arm contrasted with the placebo arm (9.1% vs. 2.9%). Additionally, the rate of drug termination was higher with semaglutide (5.9% vs. 2.9%), mostly secondary to gastrointestinal-related symptoms (3.4% vs. 0.0%). Gallbladder-related symptoms took place in only 4.9% and 1.5% of the semaglutide and placebo arms, respectively. In contrast with the placebo arm, the most common side effects in ≥10% of the semaglutide arm included nausea (58.2% vs. 22.1%), constipation (36.9% vs. 24.5%), diarrhoea (36.1% vs. 22.1%), vomiting (27.3% vs. 10.8%), and nasopharyngitis (22.1% vs. 24.0%). The rates of hypoglycemia, acute pancreatitis, and injection site reactions were infrequent among individuals who received the semaglutide therapy (0.5%, 0%, and 5.4%, respectively).

In summary, the STEP 3 trial concluded that semaglutide plus intensive behavior therapy, including an initial low-calorie intake and rigorous behavioral therapy, culminated in clinically meaningful improvements in body weight and other cardiometabolic risk factors compared with the placebo treatment.

#### **5. The STEP 4 Trial**

The STEP 4 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03548987) [25] included adults with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria as the STEP 1 and STEP 3 trials [22,24]. For all research participants (*n* = 902), semaglutide was administered in a dose-escalated fashion for a 20-week run-in period (16 weeks of dose intensification starting with 0.25 mg until reaching 2.4 mg, trailed by 4 weeks of maintenance dose 2.4 mg). Only patients who were able to tolerate semaglutide 2.4 mg were included in the randomization period, thus excluding those who could not achieve the top dose of the medication. Overall, the duration of the study was 75 weeks; the run-in period lasted for 20 weeks, trailed by a randomization in 2:1 ratio (*n* = 803) to either 2.4 mg semaglutide or placebo and followed by a follow-up period of 7 weeks with no medication. The lifestyle intervention was a 500 kcal deficit diet and 150 min of exercise per week, similar to STEP 1, but less intensive than STEP 3 [22,24]. The average age and BMI of participants were 46 years and 38.4 kg/m2, respectively. The majority of the research participants were females (79.0%) and of White ethnicity (83.7%).

After the 20-week run-in interval, the average weight loss was 10.6%, and several improvements were witnessed in blood pressure (systolic and diastolic), HbA1c, lipid parameters, and waist circumference. Between week 20 to week 68, participants randomized to ongoing semaglutide continued to lose weight as opposed to those randomized to the placebo arm who gained weight during the same period (MD = –14.8%, 95% CI: −16.0, −13.5). Moreover, the continued semaglutide arm achieved significant decreases in systolic blood pressure (MD = –3.9 mmHg, 95% CI: −5.8, −2.0) and waist circumference (MD = −9.7 cm, 95% CI: −10.9, −8.5). Furthermore, the physical function scores were significantly better with continued semaglutide. Similar, to the earlier STEP trials [22–24], the analysis of exploratory secondary endpoints revealed beneficial reductions in various

lipid and glycemic profiles in support of the continued semaglutide arm contrasted with the switched placebo arm.

The rate of any adverse event was greater in the continued semaglutide arm than the switched placebo arm (81.3% vs. 75.0%). The number of serious side effects was higher in the continued semaglutide arm contrasted with the switched placebo arm (7.7% vs. 5.6%). However, the rate of drug termination was comparable between both arms (2.4% vs. 2.2%). Gastrointestinal and gallbladder-related symptoms took place in 41.9% and 2.8% of the continued semaglutide arm and in 26.1% and 3.7% of the switched placebo arm. In contrast with the switched placebo arm, the most commonly documented side effects in ≥5% of the continued semaglutide arm included diarrhoea (14.4% vs. 7.1%), nausea (14.0% vs. 4.9%), constipation (11.6% vs. 6.3%), nasopharyngitis (10.8% vs. 14.6%), and vomiting (10.3% vs. 3.0%). The rates of hypoglycemia, acute pancreatitis, and injection site reactions were infrequent in the continued semaglutide arm (0.6%, 0%, and 2.6%, respectively).

In summary, the STEP 4 trial concluded that once-weekly continued 2.4 mg semaglutide after a 20-week run-in interval plus standard lifestyle modifications led to sustained body weight loss over the next 48 weeks contrasted with individuals who switched to placebo who started regaining weight.

#### **6. The STEP 5 Trial**

The STEP 5 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03693430) included adults with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria as the STEP 1, STEP 3, and STEP 4 trials [22,24–26]. In a 1:1 ratio, the trial randomized 304 participants to either semaglutide with standard lifestyle modifications of a 500 kcal deficit diet and 150 min of exercise per week or placebo with standard lifestyle modifications of a 500 kcal deficit diet and 150 min of exercise per week. Semaglutide was administered in a dose-escalated fashion until reaching the targeted maintenance dose of 2.4 mg (end of week 20), which was continued until week 104. The study continued for 111 weeks; the treatment (semaglutide or placebo) lasted for 104 weeks, trailed by a follow-up period of 7 weeks with no medication. The average age and BMI of participants were 47 years and 38.5 kg/m2, respectively. The majority of the research participants were females (78.0%) and of White ethnicity (93.1%).

Semaglutide with standard lifestyle modifications achieved more weight loss from baseline to week 104 contrasted with placebo with standard lifestyle modifications (MD = −12.6%, 95% CI: −15.3, −9.8). Moreover, the proportions of research participants with ≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, and ≥20% weight loss at week 104 with semaglutide were 77.1%, 61.8%, 52.1%, and 36.1%, respectively. In addition, the semaglutide arm had significant improvements in various cardiovascular risk factors, such as systolic blood pressure (MD = −4.2 mmHg, 95% CI: −7.3, −1.0), diastolic blood pressure (MD = −3.7 mmHg, 95% CI: −6.1, −2.1), C-reactive protein (MD = −53.1%, 95% CI: −63.2, −40.0), and waist circumference (MD = −9.2 cm, 95% CI: −12.2, −6.2). The semaglutide arm also had significant improvements in various metabolic risk factors, such as HbA1c (MD = −0.33%, 95% CI: −0.41, −0.25), fasting plasma glucose (MD = −9.2 mg/dL, 95% CI: −12.0, −6.5), fasting serum insulin (MD = −27.4%, 95% CI: −39.3, −13.3), and triglycerides (MD = −22.0%, 95% CI: −29.8, −13.2).

The rate of any adverse event was greater after semaglutide compared to placebo (96.1% vs. 89.5%). The number of reported serious side effects was unexpectedly lower in the semaglutide arm contrasted with the placebo arm (7.9% vs. 11.8%). The rate of drug termination was similar in the semaglutide and placebo arms (5.9% vs. 4.6%). Gastrointestinal and gallbladder-related symptoms took place in 82.2% and 2.6% of the semaglutide arm. In contrast, gastrointestinal and gallbladder-related symptoms took place in 53.9% and 1.3% of the placebo arm. The rates of hypoglycemia, acute pancreatitis, and injection site reactions were rare in the semaglutide arm (2.6%, 0%, and 6.6%, respectively).

In summary, the STEP 5 trial concluded that once-weekly semaglutide dose (plus lifestyle modifications) led to sustained body after two years of treatment, improved cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors, and depicted satisfactory safety profile compared with placebo.

#### **7. The STEP 6 Trial**

The STEP 6 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03811574) included east Asian adults, with or without type 2 diabetes, who reported a failed weight loss dietary attempt and had a BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 with two or more weight-related medical problems or a BMI ≥ 35 kg/m<sup>2</sup> with at least one weight-related medical problem [27]. The main exclusion criteria were previous or planned anti-obesity treatment or surgery and bodyweight changes of 5 kg or more in the past 3 months before screening. The Asian ethnicity was the major difference between STEP 6 compared to the previous STEP trials (the majority were White) [22–26]. In a 4:1:2:1 ratio, the trial randomized 401 participants to either semaglutide 2.4 mg or placebo, or semaglutide 1.7 mg or placebo. The dose was administered in an escalated fashion until reaching the targeted doses. All the participants were advised to follow the standard lifestyle modifications similar to STEP 5 trial. Overall, the duration of the study was 75 weeks; the treatment lasted for 68 weeks, trailed by a follow-up interval of 7 weeks with no medication. The average age and BMI of participants were 51 years and 31.9 kg/m2, respectively. All the research participants were Asian (100%), and the majority were males (63%).

The semaglutide with lifestyle intervention in both doses (2.4 mg and 1.7 mg) reduced body weight more than placebo with lifestyle intervention during the 68 weeks (MD = −11.06%, 95% CI: −12.88, −9.24 and MD = −7.52%, 95% CI: −9.62, −5.43, respectively). Moreover, the proportions of participants who had ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss at week 68 with semaglutide 2.4 mg were 83%, 61%, and 41%, respectively. The treatment arm also showed significant reductions in waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, and HbA1c. In addition, the analysis of exploratory secondary endpoints revealed favorable reductions among semaglutide groups in BMI, fasting plasma glucose, C-reactive protein, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, lipid profile (except for highdensity lipoprotein cholesterol). An improvement in the physical function score was noted in the semaglutide 2.4 mg group. From baseline to week 68, greater reductions in abdominal visceral fat area were observed in the semaglutide 2.4 mg (−40%) and 1.7 mg (−22.2%) groups than the placebo group (−6.9%).

The rate of reported adverse events was 86% in the semaglutide 2.4 mg group, 82% in the semaglutide 1.7 mg group, and 79% in the placebo group. Unexpectedly, the percentage of serious adverse events was lower in the semaglutide 2.4 mg arm (5%) contrasted with semaglutide 1.7 mg and placebo arms (7% each). The rate of drug termination was higher in semaglutide groups (3%) compared to placebo (1%). Gallbladder-related symptoms took place in only 1% in all groups. Gastrointestinal-related symptoms, which were mostly mild to moderate, were more common in semaglutide 1.7 mg group (64%) than semaglutide 2.4 mg group (59%) or placebo group (30%). The rates of hypoglycemia and acute pancreatitis were 0% in all arms. Injection site reactions were reported in only four participants in the semaglutide 2.4 mg arm.

In summary, among east Asian patients with BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2, with or without type 2 diabetes, the STEP 6 trial concluded that once-weekly 2.4 mg semaglutide plus lifestyle adjustment led to significant reductions in body weight, abdominal visceral fat, and other cardiometabolic risk factors compared with placebo in this population.

#### **8. The STEP 8 Trial**

The STEP 8 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04074161) was an open label with treatment arms and double-blinded against matched placebo arms [28]. It included adults with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria as the STEP 1 trial. In a 3:1:3:1 ratio, the trial randomized 338 participants to either once-weekly semaglutide (dose-escalation to 2.4 mg over 16 weeks), or matching placebo, or once-daily liraglutide (dose escalation to 3.0 mg over 4 weeks), or matching placebo. Both semaglutide and liraglutide are long-acting GLP-1 analogs. As a result of the substitution of amino acids that prevents the degeneration of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 and addition of C18 fatty acids, semaglutide has a half-life of 165 h, whereas liraglutide's half-life is about 13 h [26]. All the participants in this trial had the same lifestyle intervention as the STEP 1 trial. The study continued for 75 weeks; the treatments lasted for 68 weeks, trailed by a 7-week follow-up period with no medications. The mean age and BMI of participants were 49 years and 37.5 kg/m2, respectively. The majority of the research participants were females (78.4%) and of White ethnicity (73.7%).

Semaglutide with lifestyle modifications resulted in a more significant weight loss from baseline to week 68 compared to liraglutide with lifestyle modifications (MD = −9.4%, 95% CI: −12.0, −6.8). Furthermore, the proportions of the semaglutide patients who achieved ≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, and ≥20% body weight loss at week 68 were 87.2%, 70.9%, 55.6%, and 38.5%, respectively. Liraglutide was also effective, albeit less than semaglutide, in causing ≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, and ≥20% weight loss at 68 weeks in 58.1%, 25.6%, 12%, and 6% of participants, respectively. At week 68, reductions in BMI, waist circumference, blood pressure, HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose, triglyceride, total cholesterol, very-lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol, and C-reactive protein levels were significantly greater with semaglutide compared to liraglutide.

The rate of any reported adverse events was 95.2% with semaglutide, 96.1% with liraglutide, and 95.3% with placebo. The number of reported serious side effects was higher with liraglutide (11%) compared to semaglutide (7.9%) or placebo (7.1%). Moreover, drug termination was more common in the liraglutide arm (12.6%) vs. semaglutide (3.2%) and placebo (3.5%). Gastrointestinal- and gallbladder-related symptoms were reported in 84.1% and 0.8% with semaglutide, 82.7% and 3.1% with liraglutide, and 55.3% and 1.2% with placebo. Hypoglycemia and acute pancreatitis were reported only with the liraglutide group (0.8% both). The injection site reactions were observed with liraglutide (11%) and placebo (5.9%) but not with semaglutide (0%).

In summary, the STEP 8 trial concluded that once-weekly semaglutide with lifestyle modifications was significantly superior to once-daily liraglutide with lifestyle modifications in body weight reduction and other cardiometabolic risk factors improvement.

#### **9. Discussion**

The STEP program demonstrated that once-weekly semaglutide with various intensity of lifestyle modifications was superior to placebo or once-daily liraglutide with lifestyle modifications in body weight reduction and other cardiometabolic risk factors improvement. The main secondary efficacy endpoints are summarized in Table 2. The STEP 2 trial included individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity [23]. In the STEP 6 trial, only 25% of the patients had diabetes [27]. Conversely, the STEP 1, 3, 4, 5, and 8 trials did not include patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus [22,24–26,28], which may explain the superior weight loss in STEP 1, 3–6, and 8. The purpose of the STEP trials was for semaglutide 2.4 mg to gain regulatory approval and, as such, the two primary efficacy outcomes were percentage weight loss and the proportion of individuals achieving ≥5% weight loss at the endpoint.

In a recent meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing the efficacy of different obesity medications, it showed that the percentage of bodyweight reduction from baseline with phentermine-topiramate was 7.97%, naltrexone-bupropion was 4.11%, orlistat was 3.16%, and liraglutide was 4.68%. Phentermine-topiramate and naltrexone-bupropion combinations were associated with the most adverse events. Their findings suggested that semaglutide might be the most effective among all the different obesity medications [15].



to end of treatment. Abbreviations: WC, waist circumference; BMI, body mass index; CRP, C-reactive protein; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; HbA1c, hemoglobin A1c; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; TC, total cholesterol; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; TG, triglyceride; NA, not available.

The STEP 4 trial (a withdrawal study) appraised the cessation of semaglutide therapy after a 20-week run-in interval. STEP 4 showed that individuals who continued semaglutide therapy had sustained a significant body weight loss contrasted with those who switched to placebo who started regaining weight [25]. Six of the STEP trials employed a semaglutide dose of 2.4 mg, except for the STEP 2 and STEP 6 trials, which also had an arm using semaglutide 1.0 mg and 1.7 mg, respectively. STEP 2 and 6 demonstrated that the higher semaglutide dose resulted in more body weight loss but also had fewer adverse effects, reflecting a dose–response effect. The STEP 5 trial had the longest duration of all STEP trials (104 weeks on medication) and explored the long-term effect of 2.4 mg semaglutide contrasted with placebo on body weight and various cardiometabolic risk factors over a two-year period. In the STEP 8 trial, the reduction in body weight was significantly greater with weekly semaglutide injection when compared to daily liraglutide injection, accompanied by significant improvements in various cardiometabolic risk factors. The analysis of exploratory secondary endpoints in all the STEP trials revealed beneficial effects on blood pressure, glycemic, lipid, inflammatory, and anthropometric parameters.

Overall, semaglutide had a good safety profile without any new safety signals not previously detected in other GLP-1 analogs. The rate of serious adverse events and proportion of side effects leading to drug termination was generally similar to other GLP-1 analogs. The tolerability profile and main adverse events for STEP 1–6 and 8 are presented in Table 3. The vast majority of the drug-associated adverse events were mild gastrointestinal-related symptoms. The rates of hypoglycemia, acute pancreatitis, gallbladder-related symptoms, and injection site reactions were low in the semaglutide groups and often comparable with the placebo groups. These will, however, need to be monitored in post-marketsurveillance schemes.

The STEP trials have several strengths, including the scientifically robust methodologies, as reflected by the phase-III, large-sized, multicentric, double-blind, and placebocontrolled study designs. Limitations include the unintentional biased gender and ethnicity, as the vast majority of the recruited research participants were White females. Patients were recruited from routine clinical services where the usual demographic is reflected in the trials with a preponderance of females. These sociodemographic factors could have introduced a bias in the pooled outcomes. However, in the STEP 6 trial, all participants were east Asian, and the majority were males, and the outcomes were almost similar to the other STEP trials. Another limitation includes the short-term follow-up interval of roughly 68 weeks. This limitation was partly addressed in the STEP 5 trial, which provided a much longer follow-up of two years. However, obesity is a chronic disease and will require chronic treatment.

All STEP trials included a lifestyle intervention. However, only the STEP 3 trial incorporated very intensive lifestyle modifications, which included a low-calorie intake during the opening 8 weeks and then an additional 30 weeks of intensive behavioral therapy sessions with registered dieticians [24]. As a consequence, the patients in the placebo arm lost almost double the amount of weight recorded in the placebo arms of STEP 1, 2, 5, and 6 [22,23,26,27]. The placebo arm in STEP 3 lost 5.7% of weight, while the placebo arm in STEP 1 lost 2.4%, STEP 2 lost 3.4%, STEP 5 lost 2.6%, and STEP 6 lost 2.1%. Weight loss in the placebo arm of STEP 4 was 5%, but these patients were busy regaining weight after being treated with semaglutide for 20 weeks before being switched to only receiving standard lifestyle modifications. However, the approach of short-term drug treatment followed by standard lifestyle modifications in STEP 4 appeared as effective as very intensive lifestyle modification with placebo treatment. It was striking that the total weight loss achieved at the end of the treatment period in the semaglutide arms for STEP 1 was 14.9%, STEP 3 was 16%, STEP 4 was 17.4%, STEP 5 was 15.2%, STEP 6 was 13.2%, and STEP 8 was 15.8%. Only STEP 3 had very intensive lifestyle modifications, and it was expected that, similar to SCALE intensive behavior therapy, the addition of the intensive lifestyle modifications to semaglutide 2.4 mg would have added significantly more weight loss than when semaglutide 2.4 mg was combined with standard lifestyle modifications [29,30]. This raises the question of whether semaglutide 2.4 mg requires any lifestyle modification to be effective.


**Table 3.** Tolerability profile and main adverse events for STEP 1–6 and 8 [22–28].

Data from week 20 (run-in period) to end of

Other successful obesity treatments, such as bariatric surgery, do not appear to require lifestyle modifications to provide any more weight loss within the first year after surgery [31,32]. This may be due to the subject's obesity being effectively treated with surgery. The changes in food intake behavior after successful obesity treatment may not be amplified by giving the patient a more stringent diet or exercise regimen. If this is true, then the cost of providing effective obesity care will significantly reduce in the first year because it is often the requirement for lifestyle modifications, which makes it difficult for practitioners to prescribe obesity treatments. This does not mean that lifestyle modifications may not be helpful in the longer term because, as the STEP trials have shown, there are also non-responders and partial responders to semaglutide. The addition of lifestyle modification may provide additional weight loss to those who only partially respond to the medication and thus result in substantial additional health gain; for example, in STEP 3 trial, 75.3% of patients achieved >10% weight loss compared to 69.1% in STEP 1.

Another major unexplored consequence of >15% weight loss with semaglutide may be the inevitable lean muscle mass loss. This is also evident after liraglutide and bariatric surgery [32–35]. The challenge is that patients who consume so few calories because of the effective medication cannot consume enough protein in their daily intake to stop them from becoming catabolic and losing muscle. Exercising these patients further may only result in them becoming more catabolic and losing even more muscle mass [36]. Thus, nutritional therapies once patients are in a steep negative energy balance may have to focus on optimizing protein intake to prevent muscle mass loss. This may further improve the functional gains made by patients if they can achieve 15% weight loss and maintain most of the lean muscle mass [31,37]. These hypotheses, however, require further testing, as our suggestions are purely speculation based on the similarities between trials, which used intensive or less intensive lifestyle changes.

#### **10. Conclusions**

In summary, the results of the STEP trials supported the efficacy of high-dose, onceweekly 2.4 mg semaglutide on body weight reduction among individuals with obesity. While semaglutide resulted in more gastrointestinal-related side effects, the medication appeared generally safe and well tolerated. The drug may be so effective that the role of nutritional therapy may have to be redefined, and a shift away from using nutritional therapy to achieve more weight loss to rather using nutritional therapy to achieve more health gain may be required.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, C.W.l.R. and K.A.; Methodology, K.A., W.A.-N., and C.W.l.R.; Resources, K.A.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, K.A.; Writing—Review and Editing, W.A.-N. and C.W.l.R.; Supervision, C.W.l.R.; All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.

**Conflicts of Interest:** C.W.l.R. reports grants from the Irish Research Council, Science Foundation Ireland, Anabio, and the Health Research Board. He serves on the advisory boards of Novo Nordisk, Herbalife, GI Dynamics, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi Aventis, AstraZeneca, Janssen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Glia, and Boehringer Ingelheim. C.W.l.R. is a member of the Irish Society for Nutrition and Metabolism outside the area of work commented on here. He has been the chief medical officer and director of the Medical Device Division of Keyron since January 2011. Both of these are unremunerated positions. C.W.l.R. was a previous investor in Keyron, which develops endoscopically implantable medical devices intended to mimic the surgical procedures of sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass. He continues to provide scientific advice to Keyron for no remuneration. The other authors declare no conflict of interest.

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