**4. Conclusions**

The flooding was a direct result of the excessive monsoon rain that occurred throughout the summer of 2022, which was made even worse by shorter periods of very heavy rain that affected the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan, especially the month of August. Therefore, for the Indus basin and the two provinces, respectively, we evaluated the maximum rainfall over 60 days and over 5 days during the monsoon season.

In the current environment, the return time for both mentioned events are approximately 1 in 100 years. However, the amount of rain in the Indus basin varies greatly from year to year for a variety of reasons, including its close relationship to the ENSO cycle. Therefore, precise quantification is challenging.

We compared the trends in climate models with and without the human-induced increases in greenhouse gases to find the contribution of human-induced climate change to these observed changes. The affected areas are in the westernmost extremes of the monsoon region. Here, the properties of rainfall in the dry western and moist eastern parts differ significantly.

Many of the climate models that are now available have difficulty simulating these rainfall features. The incidence and intensity of extreme rainfall tend to change significantly less for those that pass our evaluation test than the trends we found in the observations. It is impossible to assess the overall contribution of human-induced climate change because of this gap, which points to the possibility that long-term variability or processes that our study may not have considered can have a significant impact. Our findings are consistent with current IPCC reports.

There is an urgen<sup>t</sup> need to reduce Pakistan's vulnerability to extreme weather, both currently and in case of the possible future increase in high rainfall over Pakistan due to climate change.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, H.M. and M.Z.; Introduction, M.A.S.; Materials and Methods, H.M., M.Z. and M.D.M.; Results and Discussions, M.S. and R.M.S.; Conclusions, M.Z. and M.A.S. writing original draft preparation, H.M.; editing, M.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.

**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.

**Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
