*3.2. Current Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Species*

The grade of the suitability zone of species has been presented in Figure 4 under the current climatic conditions across the whole study area. The potentially suitable habitats of *Meconopsis* are mainly distributed in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains, with an area of 1417.92 × 103 km2, 31.74% of the total area. The high-suitability area accounted for only 0.23% of the study area, which is mainly distributed in the central Himalaya and the Nujiang and Jinsha River Basins in Yunnan Province (Figure 5a, Table 4). The potentially suitable distribution area of *M. integrifolia* extended from the western Himalaya to the east of Hengduan Mountains, with 1105.33 × <sup>10</sup><sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup> in total, accounting for 24.74% of the study area. Among these areas, the low and medium suitable areas were dominant, while the high suitable regions were concentrated in the Jinsha River Basins in Yunnan Province, with an area of only 9.14 × 103 km2, accounting for 0.2% of the total study area (Figure 5b, Table 4). The most suitable region for *M. horridula* was located from the central Himalaya to the Hengduan Mountains, including the Minshan and Qilian Mountains, with a total area of 1428.40 × <sup>10</sup><sup>3</sup> km2, accounting for 31.98% of the study area, while the area of the middle- and low-suitability zone (31.52%) was much larger than that of high suitable area

(0.46%) (Figure 5c, Table 4). Unlike *M. integrifolia* and *M. horridula*, the potentially suitable habitat area for *M. racemosa* was much smaller, accounting for only 15.78% of the study area, but with a slightly larger high suitable area than *M. integrifolia* and *M. horridula* (0.55%, 24.51 × 103 km2), mainly scattered in the eastern Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains (Figure 5d, Table 4). The suitable habitat for *M. punicea* covered an area of 407.19 × 103 km2, accounting for less than 10% of the study area, and it was concentrated in the eastern part of the Hengduan Mountains, while regions with middle and high suitability for this species were mainly concentrated in the East Kunlun Mountains (Figure 5e, Table 4).

**Figure 5.** Potential geographic distributions of (**a**) *Meconopsis* species, (**b**) *M. integrifolia*, (**c**) *M. horridula*, (**d**) *M. racemosa*, and (**e**) *M. punicea* under current climate conditions in the study area. In this case, the probability of occurrence of *Meconopsis* species is categorized as low-, medium-, and high-suitable areas based on results of niche modeling.

**Table 4.** The areas of different suitable habitat of *Meconopsis* species based on model predictions under current climate scenario. (Unit: 103 km2).


We found that the mean elevation distribution of suitable habitats for all species ranged from 3200 m to 4300 m (Table 5). For the genus *Meconopsis*, the distribution elevation range of the middle- and high-suitable zones was narrower than that of the low-suitable zones, and the elevation range of the high suitable zone was only 381 m, distributed in the area over 4000 m above sea level. The elevation widths of the low-suitable habitats of *M. integrifolia*, *M. horridula*, *M. racemosa*, and *M. punicea* were larger than those of the medium- and high-suitable habitats. In the high-suitable habitats, the elevational width of *M. integrifolia* was the narrowest at 843 m. In the medium-suitable habitats, the elevation width of *M. punicea* was 2320 m, which was the narrowest among them. *M. punicea* still had the narrowest elevation width of 2777 m in the low suitability habitat, and *M. horridula* had the widest in all suitability habitats, which means that it was better adapted than the other three species.

**Table 5.** Elevational pattern in species potential distribution in climate change scenarios under current climate conditions, in regions exhibiting high, medium, and low probability of species occurrence. All values in meters above mean sea level. (a: *Meconopsis*, b: *M. integrifolia*, c: *M. horridula*, d: *M. racemosa*, e: *M. punicea*).

