*4.1. Analysis of the CLUT*

### 4.1.1. Measurement of Comprehensive Index of the CLUT

Overall, the comprehensive index of the CLUT in the study area increased from 0.0480 to 0.0711, which is an increase of 48.13%. The comprehensive CLUT index in the five provinces also increased (Figure 3). However, there was an imbalance in the CLUT between provinces. The order of the average value of the comprehensive transition index was: Hunan Province (0.0645) > Jiangsu Province (0.0617) > Anhui Province (0.0589) > Jiangxi Province (0.0575) > Hubei Province (0.0540). The order of the growth rate of the comprehensive transition index was: Jiangsu Province (62.26%) > Jiangxi Province (52.41%) > Hunan Province (46.65%) > Hubei Province (44.47%) > Anhui Province (34.84%). The extreme differences in the comprehensive transition index in the study area in 2001, 2007, 2013, and 2019 were 0.0345, 0.0438, 0.0587, and 0.0641, respectively. These results indicate that the morphology of cultivated land use in this region is undergoing rapid changes. Due to the heterogeneity of natural and socioeconomic characteristics, the differences in the CLUT between regions are expanding. *Land* **2022**, *11*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 24 rapid changes. Due to the heterogeneity of natural and socioeconomic characteristics, the differences in the CLUT between regions are expanding.

**Figure 3.** Change trend of the CLUT. **Figure 3.** Change trend of the CLUT.

have the opposite characteristics.

4.1.2. Variations in the Cultivated Land-Use Spatial Transition

From 2001 to 2019, the spatial transition of the high-value areas of cultivated land use was mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces in the northeast (Figure 4). There was no obvious law in the distribution of low-value areas, which were distributed in all provinces, and the central region was relatively concentrated in 2019. These results suggest that the change rate of the spatial transition index was higher in the northern and southern regions of the study area than that in the central region from 2001 to 2007 (Figure 5). Meanwhile, the overall difference in the change rate of the spatial transition index narrowed, and the regions with high change rates decreased significantly from 2007 to 2013. These results demonstrate that the regions with a high rate of change were clustered in the south and north from 2013 to 2019. Overall, the spatial transition index of cultivated land use in the study area increased from 0.0231 to 0.0288, and the spatial transition index change rate was 24.68% in the past 20 years. The distribution of the transition index and change rate are similar to the economic development and topographic differences in the study area. Areas with a higher CLUT index have the characteristics of a high economic development level, low altitude, and flat terrain, while regions with a lower CLUT index

#### 4.1.2. Variations in the Cultivated Land-Use Spatial Transition

Based on ArcGIS software, this study uses the Natural Breaks method to divide the CLUT index and change rate into five grades from high to low and visualize them.

From 2001 to 2019, the spatial transition of the high-value areas of cultivated land use was mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces in the northeast (Figure 4). There was no obvious law in the distribution of low-value areas, which were distributed in all provinces, and the central region was relatively concentrated in 2019. These results suggest that the change rate of the spatial transition index was higher in the northern and southern regions of the study area than that in the central region from 2001 to 2007 (Figure 5). Meanwhile, the overall difference in the change rate of the spatial transition index narrowed, and the regions with high change rates decreased significantly from 2007 to 2013. These results demonstrate that the regions with a high rate of change were clustered in the south and north from 2013 to 2019. Overall, the spatial transition index of cultivated land use in the study area increased from 0.0231 to 0.0288, and the spatial transition index change rate was 24.68% in the past 20 years. The distribution of the transition index and change rate are similar to the economic development and topographic differences in the study area. Areas with a higher CLUT index have the characteristics of a high economic development level, low altitude, and flat terrain, while regions with a lower CLUT index have the opposite characteristics. *Land* **2022**, *11*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 24

The Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces are both within the Yangtze River Delta, with flat terrain. In 1985, the Chinese government opened this region as a coastal economic open

\$1571 and \$725 to \$17,698 and \$8410, respectively, and the proportion of the grain and cash crop planting areas decreased from 1.052 and 1.271 to 0.977 and 1.166, respectively. This shows that people's demand for agricultural products continues to diversify with the growth of the economy, which results in an increase in the economic crop sowing area and changes in the cultivated land planting pattern. Furthermore, the social awareness of cultivated land protection in this area is stronger, and the response to national policies is also more active. From 2001 to 2019, the per capita cultivated land area in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces increased from 0.099 hm2 and 0.082 hm2 to 0.125 hm2 and 0.112 hm2, respectively, and the patch aggregation degree increased from 93.384 and 93.320 to 94.659 and 96.660, respectively, which promoted the optimization and transition of the cultivated land spatial morphology. The rate of change in the spatial transition index decreased from 11.43% to 0.85%, which indicates that the landscape pattern has slowed in recent years.

**Figure 4.** The cultivated land-use spatial transition index. **Figure 4.** The cultivated land-use spatial transition index.

The Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces are both within the Yangtze River Delta, with flat terrain. In 1985, the Chinese government opened this region as a coastal economic open zone, with a high degree of economic development and advanced agricultural technology. From 2001 to 2019, the per capita GDP increased in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces from \$1571 and \$725 to \$17,698 and \$8410, respectively, and the proportion of the grain and cash crop planting areas decreased from 1.052 and 1.271 to 0.977 and 1.166, respectively. This shows that people's demand for agricultural products continues to diversify with the growth of the economy, which results in an increase in the economic crop sowing area and changes in the cultivated land planting pattern. Furthermore, the social awareness of cultivated land protection in this area is stronger, and the response to national policies is also more active. From 2001 to 2019, the per capita cultivated land area in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces increased from 0.099 hm<sup>2</sup> and 0.082 hm<sup>2</sup> to 0.125 hm<sup>2</sup> and 0.112 hm<sup>2</sup> , respectively, and the patch aggregation degree increased from 93.384 and 93.320 to 94.659 and 96.660, respectively, which promoted the optimization and transition of the cultivated land spatial morphology. The rate of change in the spatial transition index decreased from 11.43% to 0.85%, which indicates that the landscape pattern has slowed in recent years. *Land* **2022**, *11*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 24

**Figure 5.** Change rate of cultivated land-use spatial transition index. **Figure 5.** Change rate of cultivated land-use spatial transition index.

4.1.3. Variations in the Cultivated Land-Use Functional Transition 4.1.3. Variations in the Cultivated Land-Use Functional Transition

Figure 6 shows that the transition of the cultivated land-use function is generally strong. The high-value areas were mostly distributed in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and central Jiangxi from 2001 to 2013. Correspondingly, the number of high-value areas declined significantly, and the low-value areas were mainly concentrated in Anhui Province from Figure 6 shows that the transition of the cultivated land-use function is generally strong. The high-value areas were mostly distributed in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and central Jiangxi from 2001 to 2013. Correspondingly, the number of high-value areas declined significantly, and the low-value areas were mainly concentrated in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2019. Meanwhile, Figure 7 demonstrates that the areas with a higher rate of change

2013 to 2019. Meanwhile, Figure 7 demonstrates that the areas with a higher rate of change in the functional transition index were mainly in the central and southern regions from

cultivated land-use function also increased from 0.0242 to 0.0407 during these periods. The change rate of the transition index is 68.18%, which is higher than that of the spatial transition index, indicating that the influence of the socioeconomic development process is stronger on the functional morphology of cultivated land than on the spatial morphology. The transition index and rate of change in the southwestern and northeastern regions are significantly higher, which is also similar to the difference in the local economic levels.

in the functional transition index were mainly in the central and southern regions from 2001 to 2007. This transferred to the western and eastern regions from 2007 to 2013 and moved to the south and northeast from 2013 to 2019. Overall, the transition index of the cultivated land-use function also increased from 0.0242 to 0.0407 during these periods. The change rate of the transition index is 68.18%, which is higher than that of the spatial transition index, indicating that the influence of the socioeconomic development process is stronger on the functional morphology of cultivated land than on the spatial morphology. The transition index and rate of change in the southwestern and northeastern regions are significantly higher, which is also similar to the difference in the local economic levels. *Land* **2022**, *11*, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 24

**Figure 6. Figure 6.**  Cultivated land-use functional transition index. Cultivated land-use functional transition index.

From 2001 to 2019, the production, living, and ecological functional transition index of cultivated land in the study area increased from 0.0431, 0.0488, and 0.0329 to 0.0645, 0.0983, and 0.0333, respectively (Figure 8). During this period, the total number of plantation employees in the study area decreased from 75.44 million to 53.77 million. Although the average agricultural output value increased from 19,858.86 RMB/hm<sup>2</sup> to 64,764.13 RMB/hm<sup>2</sup> , correspondingly, the average grain output increased from 5545.15 t/hm<sup>2</sup> to 6205.30 t/hm<sup>2</sup> , and the farmers' per capita agricultural income rose from 1672.26 RMB to 8608.71 RMB; all of this resulted in a significant improvement in the production and living functions. From the perspective of the ecological function of cultivated land, the effective irrigation rate increased from 38.06% to 45.85%, the chemical load of cultivated land increased from 12.17 million tons to 25.85 million tons, and the crop species diversity index decreased from 0.581 to 0.508; therefore, the growth rate of the ecological function of cultivated land was not obvious.

**Figure 6.** Cultivated land-use functional transition index.

**Figure 7.** Change rate of the cultivated land-use functional transition index. China's economic growth.

**Figure 8.** Change trend of the regional cultivated land functional transition index. **Figure 8.** Change trend of the regional cultivated land functional transition index.

*4.2. Spatial Agglomeration Characteristics of the CLUT*  4.2.1. Global Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis Using GeoDa software, the global Moran's *I* index of the CLUT was calculated. Be-The production and living functions of cultivated land in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu Provinces also showed an upward trend, while the ecological functions differed significantly. Hunan and Hubei showed an increasing trend, Jiangxi and Anhui showed a decreasing trend, and Jiangsu did not change significantly. The main reason

tween 2001 and 2019, a significance test of the integrated, spatial, and functional transition of cultivated land-use was passed by 5% (Table 2), which indicates that the three transi-

tuating changes in the agglomeration of the cultivated land spatial morphology transition, the agglomeration degree was the strongest in 2007, and Moran's *I* index reached 0.5698.

is that, in 2019, the proportion of the agricultural industry in Hunan and Hubei reached 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively, while in Jiangxi it was 8.7%, and in Anhui it was 8.2%. The proportion of agriculture was relatively low, and the emphasis on agriculture was relatively insufficient, which resulted in the extensive use of cultivated land and biodiversity. Sexual decline limits the ecological maintenance of cultivated land. Similarly, the rate of change of the functional transition index also showed a slowdown, which increased from 7.71% to 45.72 and then decreased to 13.42%. This could be linked to a slowdown of China's economic growth.
