*Article* **Estimating Agricultural Cropping Intensity Using a New Temporal Mixture Analysis Method from Time Series MODIS**

**Jianbin Tao 1, Xinyue Zhang 1, Yiqing Liu 2, Qiyue Jiang <sup>1</sup> and Yang Zhou 1,\***


**Abstract:** Agricultural cropping intensity plays an important role in evaluating the food security and the sustainable development of agriculture. The existing indicators measuring cropping intensity include cropping frequency and multiple cropping index. As a nominal measurement, cropping frequency classifies crop patterns into single-cropping and/or double-cropping and leads to information loss. Multiple cropping index is calculated on the basis of statistical data, ignoring the spatial heterogeneity within the administrative region. Neither of these indicators can meet the requirements of precision agriculture, and new methods for fine cropping intensity mapping are still lacking. Time series remote sensing data provide vegetation phenology information and reveal temporal development of vegetation, which can be used to facilitate the fine cropping intensity mapping. In this study, a new temporal mixture analysis method is introduced to estimate the abundance level cropping intensity from time series remote sensing data. By analyzing phenological characteristics of major land-cover types in time series vegetatiosacan indices, a novel feature space was constructed by using the selected PCA components, and three unique endmembers (double-cropping, natural vegetations and water bodies) were found. Then, a linear spectral mixture analysis model was applied to decompose mixed pixels by replacing spectral data with multi-temporal data. The spatio-temporal continuous, fine resolution, abundance level cropping intensity maps were produced for the North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. The experiments indicate a good result at both county and pixel level validation. The method of manually delineating endmembers can well balance the accuracy and efficiency. We also found the size of the study area has little effect on the unmixing accuracy. The results demonstrated that the proposed method can model cropping intensity finely at large scale and long temporal span, at the same time with high efficiency and ease of implementation.

**Keywords:** cropping intensity; temporal mixture analysis; endmember; unmixing; time series images
