**1. Introduction**

Tourism boosts local development in many locations. Beautiful tourist centres of cities and their districts attract tourists, which is why they are responsible for new investments, development of entrepreneurship, creation of new jobs and generation of income. The increase in interest in investments in tourism is the result of socio-economic changes that have contributed, inter alia, to the increase in tourist traffic around the world [1]. Traveling has become cheaper, and thus, more accessible to members of a greater number of households. New carriers with cheaper airfares have significantly increased the flow of tourists around the world [2]. At the same time, there can be observed a rising income of households, which in turn increases their possibilities of purchasing products and services, and thus, causes more interest in tourism products [3]. The World Tourism Organization predicts that by 2030, the number of tourist trips in the world will increase to 1.8 billion [1]. With such a large increase in demand, at the same time, a significant increase in investment is forecast in order to provide accommodation, transport and other services related to tourism and infrastructure necessary to meet expected demand, simultaneously increasing economic, social and environmental results [4]. Excessive tourist traffic and forecasts for its further increase affect tourism income growth in many countries around the world. Investors encouraged by good financial results of the tourism industry are looking for new investment opportunities and optimal locations for new investments. Despite

optimistic forecasts, the development of tourism and especially the progressive concentration of tourist traffic causes a number of negative effects. The literature lists two mechanisms of arising conflicts, which are caused by cultural differences, especially the mass tourist traffic and negative behavior of tourists [5,6]. This is related, among others, to the feeling of excessive overpopulation and discomfort among the local population and tourists. This phenomenon occurs in many cities where the critical point of the capacity of the tourist system has been exceeded. Observation of the dynamically developing tourist market raises the question of whether mature or fast-growing destinations should continue to implement strategies for increasing attraction and the number of tourists [7,8]. Research to date confirms that in the event of overtourism, places struggling with this problem should try to better understand the situation on the local market in order to determine its profitability, including tourists' behaviour, length of stay, expenses, as well as preferences and leisure activities [9]. Therefore, the development of tourism should be more balanced, well-thought-out and corrected in order to obtain the effects of balance of the natural and economic environment and care for the quality of life of local residents.

The development of tourism is a consequence of complex natural factors, forms of spatial organization, and the effects of human activities. One of the development directions is the use of tourism attractiveness to build competitive advantage and attract tourists. In many regions, tourism has become the sole or key determinant of income, as well as economic and social changes. The conducted research confirms the relations between the income generated by the inhabitants and the competitiveness of tourist destinations [10–15]. Tourism competitiveness of cities and villages should be understood as the ability of the area to provide goods and services to tourists better than others. Cities and rural municipalities compete with each other in building attractive tourism spaces, which are a multidimensional structure of tourist attractions, accommodation, catering, transport and other technical and social aspects that are important elements of a tourism product.

Competitiveness can be linked to tourism attractiveness of the destination, which is often determined based on the opinion of visitors on the perceived ability of the destination spot to meet their needs related to their stay. As far as the competitiveness of a given place is concerned, the overriding value of a tourist destination's attractiveness is its ability to interest and encourage tourists to visit it [16].

Research on tourism attractiveness is necessary to understand the elements that encourage people to travel. However, there is a thin line, beyond which attractive tourist destinations begin to struggle with the problem of overtourism and gentrification [17,18]. The intensity of ill-considered investments together with mass visits of tourists cause a number of negative phenomena among local communities, the economic environment and tourists. One of the directions of actions proposed in the context of mitigating the effects of overtourism is the deliberate dispersion of visitors inside and outside the city [19]. This can be achieved, among others, by increasing the number of events organized in less-visited parts of the city and its surroundings (e.g., sports events that do not always require sports infrastructure, e.g., marathons) and developing and promoting tourist attractions and facilities in less-visited cities. In the context of sustainable development of regions and cities, the promotion and development of investments in places with high potential investment attractiveness, which have not used their potential yet, may turn out to be crucial.

Although there are many published studies regarding the investment attractiveness and factors determining it [20–23], a research gap regarding the relations between potential investment attractiveness and actual investment in tourism can be distinguished.

The study aims to show how investment attractiveness and its components can affect the development of tourism in various types of areas: Rural, urban and urban-rural. The proposed investment attractiveness model identifies five investment microclimates: Social and technical infrastructures, administrative climate, natural values and tourist attractions, thus, increasing the conceptual understanding of the impact of a wide spectrum of factors on tourism development.

The model identifies the relationship between the potential investment attractiveness of tourism and its individual components (microclimates) and actual investments on the example of accommodation facilities. The main assumption of the model is that the potential investment attractiveness of tourism affects real investment. The difference between potential investment opportunities and implemented investments creates an investment gap, i.e., unused tourism development opportunities. The following hypotheses were adopted:

**Hypothesis 1.** *There is an investment gap in the regions, i.e., a lack of fit between the level of actual investment and the level of potential investment attractiveness.*

Additionally, hypotheses regarding the changing role of model components depending on the type of analyzed municipalities were assumed.

**Hypothesis 2.** *The main factors in the development of accommodation facilities in cities are anthropogenic factors such as social infrastructure, administrative microclimate and the microclimate of tourist attractions.*

**Hypothesis 3.** *The main factors in the development of accommodation facilities in urban-rural municipalities are tourist attractions and natural values.*

**Hypothesis 4.** *The main factors in the development of accommodation facilities in rural municipalities are less often anthropogenic factors, and more frequently natural values.*

The practical objective of the model is the ability to use it in order to show investment gaps and propose new investment locations. Theoretically, new locations can take over part of the growing tourist traffic in the context of phenomena, such as crowding and overtourism in cities with high tourist attractiveness.

### **2. Tourism and Investment Attractiveness**

The literature on the subject provides a number of examples of location factors relevant to hotel industry investors. These factors can be divided into four main groups: The level of economic growth, the level of economic, political, legal and cultural stability, the degree of internationalization of the economy, and specific factors related to the hotel industry market [23]. Among the mentioned factors, various authors most often emphasize the importance of the level of economic development [24–27]. This factor is the key determinant of many elements of the redeployment and development of technical, social and transport infrastructures, communications technology, as well as the quality of human capital and tourist attractions. The literature often emphasizes that the main determinants of the volume of tourism demand are high natural and anthropogenic values. Tourist values play an important role in accommodation facilities located in places with developed tourist functions and facilities located in cities that have significant cultural and historical values, monuments and cultural objects [28–30]. Other equally important factors that are highlighted in the literature are: Sports, cultural and commercial events [31], as well as tourist attractions in the region [28,29].

The concept of tourism attractiveness cannot be considered equivalent to the concept of investment attractiveness for tourism—the main difference results from the subject of observation. In the first case, the focus is put on the demand side, i.e., all elements related to the tourist and their behavior on the market, including the perception of the ability to meet the needs. In the case of investment attractiveness for tourism, the main subject of observation is the investor, i.e., the supply side. This applies especially to their decisions taken as part of managing investment capital and business location.

Investment attractiveness is a complex phenomenon that comprises many separate factors. Attractiveness is increased by attributes of the area or those components that make up the final destination [32]. The concept of the attractiveness of a destination can be referred to individual benefits and perceived capacity of the final destination to provide individual benefits [33]. The investment

attractiveness model should take into account those features that refer to the specifics of demand and supply. In the case of tourism, these are tourist values, which are the main component of most tourism products.

Tourist values are specific features and elements of the natural environment, as well as manifestations of human activity that are of interest to tourists [34]. Tourist values can have a recreational, sightseeing and specialist character. The first create specific conditions for rest and regeneration based on elements of the natural environment, such as water (sea, rivers, lakes), clean air, forests, terrain, etc. On the other hand, sightseeing values are of explorative interest to tourists. Among them, there can be distinguished natural values created without human interference or with their little impact (e.g., national and landscape parks), and cultural values or objects of material and non-material culture created by man. All of this is complemented by specialized values, which give the opportunity to practice various specialized forms of tourism, e.g., sailing, mountain climbing, horse riding, etc.

The investment attractiveness model should also take into account elements important for investors that are related to service infrastructure, technical infrastructure, population relations and municipalities' finances [35]. These are elements that refer to both spatial development, as well as market and administrative conditions in a given area, including business environment, government policy and organization of major events [36]. Some of these conditions, e.g., regarding transport accessibility, are a prerequisite for using tourist values, as well as are an important element of the development of tourist regions.

When planning investments, the investor must take into account the needs of tourists. The literature mentions a number of examples of tourist attractions relevant to tourists, namely:


The above examples show the complexity of issues related to investment attractiveness. Based on the literature review and previous research, it was assumed that the potential investment attractiveness should be defined as a set of regional location values that have an impact on achieving the objectives by an investor who undertakes activities related to tourist services (e.g., in the form of business costs, sales revenues, net return and the competitiveness of the investment). The above definition was the basis for the development of a multidimensional statistical model of potential investment attractiveness.

### **3. Potential Investment Attractiveness Model for Tourism**

Potential investment attractiveness is a complex phenomenon, and its measurement requires the involvement of many indicators describing different location values [21]. The difficulty of measuring investment attractiveness lies in translating the theoretical term into a system of empirical indicators. The components (investment microclimates) useful for the research were determined using the algorithm of sums of zero unitarization [43], for which the appropriate empirical indicators were selected. The selection of indicators for the model was based on similar studies on the assessment of investment attractiveness [21,22]. In the next step, the indicators were standardized and then aggregated into individual microclimates. Finally, the microclimates were combined, and thus, synthetic indicators of the level of investment attractiveness were obtained. Due to the aim of the study, i.e., determining the relations between model components and actual investments, uniform

weights for model indicators were used [44]. The aggregation process included the implementation of further activities:


For easier interpretation, the indicators were grouped into five main investment microclimates (Figure 1) that are components of the model (Table 1).

**Table 1.** Components of the potential investment attractiveness indicator for tourism.

### **Technical Infrastructure**

X1 Share of the population served by the waterworks X2 Share of flats with connection to the gas pipeline X3 Share of the population served by the sewage system

#### **Social infrastructure**

X4 Number of viewers in permanent cinemas per 100 inhabitants


X7 Swimming open and covered for 1000 inhabitants

X8 Aquaparks for 1000 inhabitants

X9 Skate parks for 1000 inhabitants

X10 Length of bicycle paths per 1000 inhabitants

X11 Parks, walking and recreation [ha]/1000 inhabitants X12 Number of residents

### **Administrative climate**

X13 Share of own revenues in total revenues

X14 Expenditure on culture and protection of national heritage per inhabitant

X15 Expenditure on physical culture and sport per inhabitant

X16 Expenditure on tourism per inhabitant

X17 Expenditure on public safety and fire protection per inhabitant

#### **Tourist attractions**

X18 Number of mass events per 1000 inhabitants


X22 Audience drama theater per 1000 inhabitants

#### **Natural values**


X26 Accommodation in health resorts

#### **Real investments**

X27 Number of beds in 2017

X28 Change in the number of beds in years 2012–2017

Source: Author's own elaboration.

The technical infrastructure is the first microclimate that allows assessing the preparation of an investment area for basic transmission networks, e.g., water, gas and electricity. An appropriate level of infrastructure is a basic condition for the location of accommodation, catering and entertainment facilities. Social infrastructure is assessed through the prism of equipping a given place with buildings, as well as entertainment, recreation and sports facilities. In addition to the basic tourist values, it is a complementary element that allows the development of various forms of active leisure. The next market microclimate informs about the market responsiveness, the number of potential consumers, as well as the level of investment to date and competition in a given place, e.g., the number of available accommodation sites or the scale of ongoing investments. Moreover, the model takes into account the administrative microclimate that assesses the level of public spending on tourism. These expenses allow financing of both tourist infrastructure and local events, e.g., festivals or concerts. Natural conditions are a key element of the discussed investment attractiveness model. This mainly applies to the landscape and various forms of terrain, such as mountains, lowlands, lakes and coast. These are the basic factors that determine the development of leisure and sightseeing tours. The last element of the model is tourist attractions related to historical and cultural achievements of the place, which include: Museums, monuments and cultural events, etc.

**Figure 1.** Potential investment attractiveness model for tourism. Source: Author's own elaboration.

The standardized sums method was used to assess the level of investment attractiveness. It is a method of the linear ordering of standardized data, which assumes that all variables are stimulant. The procedure begins with standardization by normalizing one-dimensional variables that simulate based on the following formula.

$$\mathbf{x}\_{ij}^{\prime} = \frac{\mathbf{x}\_{ij} - \mathbf{x}\_{minj}}{\mathbf{x}\_{maxj} - \mathbf{x}\_{minj}} 100\mathbf{y}$$

where:

*j next feature number*,

*i next spatial unit number*,

*xijnormalized feature j in the spatial unit i*,

*xij value of the feature j in the spatial unit i*.

If the nature of the variable is different, e.g., destimulants or nominants, the procedure for the replacement for a stimulant should be applied:

$$
\alpha\_{ij}{}' = \frac{\varkappa\_{\text{max}j} - \varkappa\_{ij}}{\varkappa\_{\text{max}j} - \varkappa\_{\text{min}j}} 100.
$$

Based on standardized variables, a vector of standardized sums *qi* for individual investment microclimate is then determined. These are the arithmetic mean values of the standardized features *xij* which correspond to individual facilities, where n is the number of investment microclimate and m is the number of variables in a given microclimate, according to the formula:

$$q\_i = \frac{1}{m} \sum\_{j=1}^{m} \alpha\_{ij}{}^{\prime}$$

Pseudo-one-dimensional variables describing microclimate were the basis for calculating investment attractiveness indicators *Qi*,

$$Q\_i = \frac{1}{n} \sum\_{i=1}^{n} q\_i.$$

The attractiveness indicators assigned to individual municipalities were divided into classes from 1 to 6 in accordance with the Jenks Natural Breaks Classification method. This method is used to present heterogeneous data, as it aggregates groups with similar values. The ordering of values in different classes is carried out by striving to minimize the average deviation of each class from the average class, while maximizing the deviation of each class from the average of other groups [45].

In the last stage, investment gaps were calculated as class differences (1–6) created as a result of typing of variables of potential investment attractiveness and actual tourism investments, which were measured by the number of accommodation facilities using the Jenks Natural Breaks Classification method (Figure 2).

**Figure 2.** Investment gaps model for tourism. Source: Author's own elaboration.

The analysis was carried out for the entire research sample, i.e., 2478 municipalities in Poland in accordance with the administrative division into rural, urban and urban-rural municipalities. Due to the amount of data needed to construct a multidimensional model for 2478 administrative units, it was decided to use reliable information resources of official statistics in Poland presented by Statistics Poland [46]. The data obtained to build the model concerned the year of 2016, whereas, the data on the number of accommodation facilities regarded the years 2012 and 2017. The data used to construct indicators of the natural microclimate constituted an exception. To calculate the index of the municipality's access to the sea, digital maps and a computer program supporting GIS (geographical information system) were used, while in the case of the terrain indicator, research on the agricultural production space valuation carried out by the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation [47] was applied.
