**5. Conclusions**

Using the TALC model, three development phases were identified in Tunisia – exploration (before 1960), involvement (1960–1985), and development (1985–2019).

The prognosis carried out using the trend function models indicates that the next phase of Tunisia evolution as a tourism area will be the consolidation phase. It will begin in 2020. The number of tourists will increase significantly and gradually exceed the number of residents. As predicted, the number of tourists in 2025 may be twice as big as the number of residents, which implies the risk of overtourism in the analyzed area. The consolidation stage was a premise to take measures to investigate the degree of overtourism in this destination.

The increasing tourists' number strengthens the tourism function of the area and has a positive effect on economic development at the regional level on the one hand, but can exert a negative impact on the natural environment and, consequently, worsen the recreational conditions on the other hand. It can also lead to the buildup of social tensions at various levels.

At present, however, the values of the tourism intensity index and tourism density, which reflect the tourism carrying capacity, indicate the risk of overtourism in three governorates: the highest in Sousse (TII 5, TD 5) and high in Monastir (TII 5, TD 3) and Madanin (TII 3, TD5).

The research procedure adopted in the present study yields a diagnosis of the overtourism problem in the analysed area. However, it brings preliminary results, which diagnose the problem based on a limited number of variables and represent entire governorate areas. In future, the phenomenon of overtourism should be analysed taking into account a greater number of variables, e.g., the TCC phenomenon. It is also important to diagnose overtourism in basic administrative units within the governorates, which may be difficult due to the limited possibility of acquiring relevant data.

In compliance with the principles of sustainable development, specific measures should be undertaken to prevent the phenomenon of overtourism in Sousse, Monastir, and Madanin and, in the near future, also in Tunis and Nabeul. Some of them are highlighted by Halioui and Schmidt [26], UNWTO [1], and Kruczek [6]. Actions that may limit the negative effects of overtourism should include the following steps: 1. creation of new attractions and tourist routes in neighboring governorates in order to disperse visitors in space and time; 2. adjustment of legal provisions for organization and management of tourism in the governorates; 3. providing the local community with the benefits from tourism.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, M.W.; methodology, M.W. and T.B.-W.; validation, M.W.; formal analysis, M.W. and T.B.-W.; investigation, M.W. and T.B.-W.; resources, M.W. and T.B.-W.; data curation, M.W.; writing—original draft preparation, M.W. and T.B.-W.; writing—review and editing, M.W. and T.B.-W.; visualization, M.W.; supervision, T.B.-W. All authors have read and agree to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
