**Monika Widz \* and Teresa Brzezi ´nska-Wójcik**

Department of Regional Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University, al. Kra´snicka 2d, 20-031 Lublin, Poland; tbrzezin@poczta.umcs.lublin.pl **\*** Correspondence: monika.widz@umcs.pl; Tel.: +48-81-537-6852

Received: 30 January 2020; Accepted: 3 March 2020; Published: 5 March 2020

**Abstract:** Tunisia is a destination where organised mass tourism has prevailed since 1985. This trend is still being observed, despite the unstable geopolitical situation in North Africa. Current reports from booking portals indicate that this country will be one of the most popular tourist destinations in 2020. Therefore, the aim of the study was to determine the prospects for sustainable development in Tunisia in 2020–2025 as means to prevent the negative effects of overtourism. The research was conducted in three stages: (1) analysis of the phases of tourism development in Tunisia from 1960 to 2019 in relation to the Tourism Area Life Cycle concept, (2) identification of the destination's evolution in 2015–2019 with the method of trend function exploration, and (3) an attempt to assess the risk of overtourism in Tunisia in light of Tourism Carrying Capacity on the basis of the Tourism Intensity Index and Tourism Density index. The study results revealed three phases of development in Tunisia, i.e. exploration, involvement, and development. The verification of the trend function indicated that Tunisia would enter the consolidation phase in 2020. The highest risk of overtourism is estimated for three governorates—Tunis, Sousse, and Monastir.

**Keywords:** tourism area life cycle model; tourism carrying capacity; tourism intensity index; tourism density index; overtourism
