*2.2. Conceptual Research Framework on the Opinions of Residents and Tourists and the Development of a Tourist Region*

There are also alternative research concepts, such as the Limits of Acceptable Change—(LAC), which allow for the assessment of the degree to which the effect of tourism can be accepted by local parties interested in its development [24,25]. In periods of increased financial need, residents may have a more tolerant attitude and endure the negative effects of tourism due to the potential economic benefits. Discussion on the LAC concept and other similar approaches has meant that instead of using figures to illustrate the mass scale of tourist traffic, emphasis has been placed on qualitative analysis balancing the benefits and drawbacks of the development of tourism [26]. Various approaches to tourism management have also appeared that go beyond the limits on the number of visitors. The first, supported by the UNWTO, focuses on increasing the tourist capacity in reception areas [1]. Capacity can be increased through, amongst others, the use of intelligent hi-tech solutions or by increasing acceptance in the local community and stimulating entrepreneurship [27]. Other approaches focus on the need to diversify forms of tourism and the building of proper relations between the interested parties involved in tourism. Attention should be drawn to the fact that the benefits and drawbacks are often not evenly distributed among the interested parties [28].

The TALC model (Butler, 1980) and to a lesser degree the Irridex Model (Doxey, 1975) have provided a theoretical framework for many studies, although their popularity has been decreasing in recent years [29,30]. The majority of researchers assume in both these models that the large number of tourists associated with the last stages in tourism development have a tendency to generate unfavorable or negative attitudes amongst residents [31].

An excellent illustration of the change in the attitude of residents towards tourists is the Doxey index, published in 1976 [14,32]. The appearance of negative attitudes among residents towards tourists is a result of the social carrying capacity limits being exceeded, that is, the inability to accept changes as they take place. G.V. Doxey describes the change in residents' attitudes towards tourism at four successive levels, illustrated in Figure 1.

1. The level of **euphoria**: People are enthusiastic and thrilled by tourism development. They welcome the stranger and there is a mutual feeling of satisfaction. There are opportunities for locals, and money flows in along with the tourist.

2. The level of **apathy:** As the industry expands, people begin to take the tourist for granted. The tourist rapidly becomes a target for profit-taking, and contact on the personal plane begins to become more formal.

3. The level of **irritation:** This will begin when the industry is nearing the saturation point or is allowed to pass a level at which locals cannot handle the numbers without the expansion of facilities.

4. The level of **antagonism:** Irritation has become more overt. People now see the tourist as the harbinger of all that is bad (e.g., 'Taxes have gone up because of the tourists'; 'They have no respect for property'; 'They have corrupted our youth'). Mutual politeness has now given way to antagonism and the tourist is 'ripped off'.

5. **The final level**: People have forgotten that what they originally cherished was what drew the tourist, but in the scramble to develop, they overlooked this and allowed the environment to change. What they now must learn to live with is the fact that their ecosystem will never be the same again. They might still be able to draw tourists but of a very different type from those they welcomed in earlier years. If the destination is large enough to cope with mass tourism, it will continue to thrive.

**Figure 1.** Source: Doxey [29] pp. 26–27.

The Doxey Index has been used to assess the attitudes of residents towards tourists and tourism in Dubai, a city in the Middle East that has experienced dramatic growth in the tourist industry [33]. This research indicated that the tourism industry can continue to develop in the city without causing antagonism amongst the residents. Similar research into the socio-cultural effects of tourism development has been conducted at Balaton Lake in Hungary [34] and on the island of Mauritius [35].

R.W. Butler, who formulated the TALC model (Tourism Area Life Cycle), introduced the evolutionary cycle of a tourist region based on six phases of development of a tourist region (exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and decline or revitalization), which form a repeating cycle (Figure 2).

**Figure 2.** Phases in the Butler cycle in relation to protected areas (Source: [13] (pp. 5–12).

This model is based primarily on a symptomatic variable, that is, the number of visitors to the studied tourist region within one year. R.W. Butler [36] defines sustainable tourism as tourism that is developed and maintained in such a way and on such a scale as to be profitable for an indefinite time, without causing changes to the natural environment in which the tourist region is located. Exceeding the level of 'sustainability' makes the success of development and other undertakings and processes impossible. A certain modification to the TALC model for protected areas such as national parks was then developed by Weizenegger [37]. This assumed that in protected areas, e.g., national parks, limits on tourist traffic can be implemented through the imposition of high taxes for exceeding the region's capacity. This measure is intended to support the aim of protecting the area. In this case, development in such an area would be limited to the first three phases in the Butler cycle, followed by a forced consolidation phase held at the end level of the development phase (Figure 3). This model has been confirmed in relation to the development of tourism in Antarctica [38].

**Figure 3.** Sustainable development and TALC (Tourism Area Life Cycle). (Source: author's calculations based on: [34,35] (pp. 119–138)).

#### **3. Materials and Methods**

This article deals with the issue of tourism development in cities, a topic often studied by researchers [39]. To achieve the aim of the article, empirical research had to be carried out to verify the questions and assumptions posed. The study was conducted amongst randomly selected residents and amongst businesspeople whose business activity was connected with tourism in Kraków, one of the most frequently visited cities in Central Europe.

Kraków is one of the most recognizable Polish tourist destinations and has been included among tourist metropolitan regions. The Old Town in Kraków and the Wieliczka Salt Mine were added in 1978 to the first World Heritage List of Culture and Nature. Kraków was the European Capital of Culture in 2000. It belongs to the UNESCO Creative Cities Network, was, in 2013, honored as the UNESCO City of Literature, and the European Gastronomic Academy chose Kraków as the European Capital of Gastronomy Culture in 2019. Tourism in Kraków has a very important economic function. In 2018, Kraków was visited by as many as 13.5 million people. In the same year, tourists spent almost 6.5 billion PLN during their stay in Kraków, and the GDP generated by the tourist industry in Kraków is over 8% of the city's total GDP. Tourism provides Kraków with 29,000 permanent jobs, and taking into account multiplier effects, generates over 40,000 jobs in total [40].

In 2019, Kraków had 780,000 inhabitants and was divided into four main administrative districts, further sub-divided into smaller districts. Together, these 18 small districts, according to the Polish National Territorial Division Register (TERYT), form four main districts: Stare Miasto, Podgórze, Krowodrza, and Nowa Huta. The most attractive district for tourists is the Old Town (Stare Miasto), which covers the historical urban space of the old town including the royal castle (Wawel), the former Jewish district of Kazimierz, as well as numerous churches and museums. The district principally contains hotels, apartments, restaurants, clubs, theatres, and so forth. This district is also the most affected by tourist traffic, with a visible dramatic rise in the provision of short-term tourist accommodation, resulting in gentrification.

The second district is Podgórze, which was a separate town 200 years ago. It is connected to the city center by bridges and walkways and is slowly absorbing part of the tourist traffic. Recently, several prestigious museums have been opened here, e.g., Schindler's Factory. The third district, which borders the city center to the west, is Krowodrza, a district of parks, gardens, sports facilities, and residential areas. The last and largest district is Nowa Huta, a town built in the social realist style as a dormitory for workers at the huge metalworks. The social realist urban layout of Nowa Huta is a reminder of the city's communist era history and is unique in Europe. The district is highly attractive for tourists interested in post-communist heritage [41].

The research method employed was based on a questionnaire distributed to a randomly selected sample of representatives of Kraków. A common feature of all those included in the study was permanent residence in one of Kraków's four main districts or the running of tourist sector business activity within this area.

The research questionnaire contained nine detailed questions. The initial part of the questionnaire included questions that first classified the respondent as belonging to a specific research group (residents/businesspeople) and then to a sub-group. For businesspeople, the sub-groups were created using the criteria of type of business activity (hostelry, gastronomy, other tourist services). For city residents meanwhile, the participants were classified into a sub-group according to their place of origin and whether they worked in the tourist industry. The respondents were also classified as belonging to one of the four main city districts (Stare Miasto, Krowodrza, Podgórze, Nowa Huta). The second part of the questionnaire included questions aimed at assessing the impact of tourist traffic on individual districts in Kraków and on the daily lives of city residents and people conducting business activity there.

Respondents were also asked to express themselves on specific attitudes and opinions using respondent compliance assessment with regard to proposed diagnostic statements concerning the degree of disturbance caused by tourism within Kraków (according to the methodology proposed by Doxey [14]). An assessment scale was used, so that respondents could choose one of five symmetrically distributed answer options in terms of the positive or negative effect on residents. Selecting the middle answer indicated a neutral attitude to the issue in question, or a lack of opinion on the topic. For some questions, the answers received were quantified, so that a positive answer to a particular phenomenon was given the value 2, or 1 when the positive answer was only partly supported. For negative scores, the value given was −2 unless the answer was only partly negative, in which case it was given the value −1. A neutral answer was given the value 0. Therefore, an average score above zero for a specific answer type indicated a positive response to the issue. Meanwhile, a negative average value indicated a negative response among respondents overall to a specific issue.

A summary of the average results of residents and businesspeople made it possible to compare the answers given using non-parametric statistical tests. The results are presented in general in the form of the mean arithmetic score value, with the standard deviation (xAv ± SD), and sometimes also with the median value (Me).

In some of the questions used to assess the degree of tourist traffic disturbance in an area, it was also necessary to use a broader point scale, from 0–10. In the interpretation of the results, the assumption was made that tourist traffic disturbance rated between 0 and 5 constituted disturbance that did not exceed the area's critical level of tourist capacity and absorption, however, a score of 6 to 8 indicated a negative influence of tourist traffic on the local population. A score of 9 or 10 indicated a disturbance that not only worsened relations between tourists and residents but also damaged tourism as a whole in the area studied, leading to its gradual decline. The interpretation methodology applied was taken from the TALC concept [13].

After initial verification of the questionnaires, the answers from the 518 respondents were selected for further analysis, which exceeded the minimum random sample size, estimated to be 386 questionnaires (for an applied level of maximum statistical sample error ±5% and a reliability score of *p* = 0.95).

The data collected were analyzed using statistical analysis, both one-dimensional (in the form of descriptive analysis), and two-dimensional (in the form of analysis of pair dependence for characteristics of respondents) [42]. In some cases, the significance level of differences between the average values obtained was also assessed. For the comparison of two groups with a different distribution of variables to normal, the *U* (Mann-Whitney) test was used [43]. The significance of differences between structural indicators was tested using a Chi-squared test. Verification of statistical hypotheses was conducted using statistical tests, assuming a significance level of α ≤ 0.05 [44].

Analysis of the research questionnaire was conducted using the alpha Cronbach method (for an assumed limit value of 0.7) and showed that the questionnaire has a high reliability score [45,46]. In terms of the question on the impact of tourism on daily life in the districts, the alpha Cronbach score was 0.86, while for the problems observed in the city, the correspondence of respondents' answers was even higher (the alpha Cronbach factor reached a value of 0.94). Somewhat different indications were given for the general impact of tourist traffic, as although the reliability of questions regarding the impact on the city and region gave an alpha Cronbach of 0.78, at the level of the district it was lower. This, however, is the result of considering the impact of tourism jointly for all four districts, in which a differing level of impact was observed. When each district is taken separately there is a similarity in responses, but at a lower level than for other questions. For example, for the key district of Stare Miasto, the test reliability was 0.72. Overall, the reliability of the questionnaire used can be considered as high, which is the result of initial research that tested the reliability of the research tool.

### **4. Research Results**

A total of 518 respondents took part in the research, including 371 city residents (71.6%) and 147 businesspeople (28.4%). Among the participating businesspeople, a fifth provide hotel services (19.9%), and every thirteenth provided gastronomy services (7.8%). Of the businesspeople, 72.3% provided various tourist services (mostly these were businesspeople providing a range of complementary services to hostelry and gastronomy). Among the residents, half were under 35 years old (51.0%), 35.6% of respondents were between 36 and 55 years old, while every seventh was over 55 years old.

More than half of the participants worked in the tourist sector (51.0%). Over half (56.6%) also stated that they were originally from Kraków. As regards respondents' place of residence, most questionnaires were returned from the Stare Miasto district (44.0%), which is the principal tourist district in the city. The remaining districts were represented in comparable proportions (from 17% to 20%) (Table 1).


**Table 1.** Respondent structure. (Source: based on own study.).

Assessment of the impact of tourist traffic on participants was conducted in three place categories. The first was the district where the respondents lived or ran their business. The second was the city, and the third was the region. This division made it possible to evaluate answers about the effect of tourism on these three categories separately.

Respondents' assessments of the amount of tourist traffic at the district level, expressed on a scale of 1 to 10, showed an optimal level of traffic at around 5 (xAv = 5.49 ± 2.81; Me = 5). However, this is the average score of four separate districts, and it is worth noting that only one district displayed optimal traffic, while the rest are either overburdened by tourism (as in the case of the old town—Stare Miasto (xAv = 7.43 ± 2.4; Me = 8)), or have an insufficient number of tourists, such as Krowodrza and Nowa Huta, where tourists are still expected in larger numbers than at present (Me = 4).

In terms of the assessment of tourist traffic at the city level, the average score given by respondents was xAv = 7.57 ± 1.97 (Me = 8). This means, therefore, that Kraków is struggling with an excess of tourists, but to a moderate degree. Assuming that tourist traffic assessed at between 0 and 5 is a level that does not exceed the critical level of capacity and absorption, it can be said that Kraków has exceeded the limit of tourist capacity, a conclusion that is reflected in the answers of city residents. At the same time, it must be underlined that this is not yet a level that damages the tourism industry in the city, but it does place a burden on residents to a moderate or excessive degree.

However, it must be emphasized that a respondent's direct opinion of tourists does not reflect negative attitudes towards problems caused by tourist traffic in the city. Participants had a moderately positive assessment of the tourists visiting the city (xAv = 6.57 ± 2.44). However, analysis of the results obtained by district shows a varying attitude towards tourists. The lowest results (xAv = 6.1 ± 2.78) were noted in the main tourist district—Stare Miasto. At the same time, the average level of respondents' comfort of life in the city was assessed at xAv = 6.32 ± 2.27, while in the Stare Miasto district it is even lower (xAv = 5.44 ± 2.61), both in relation to the overall result and to the other districts.

In terms of the impact of tourist traffic on the region, respondents showed the lowest divergence of opinion. The impact on the region was assessed to be at the mid-point level between the impact on the city and on the districts and hovered around the moderate level at xAv = 6.26 ± 2.01. This is therefore a higher result than the impact on individual districts (with the exception of Stare Miasto), but is lower than the assessment of the impact on the city as a whole. This may mean that the impact on the city is assessed from the perspective of the impact on the main tourist district, in this case, Stare Miasto.

It is also interesting that respondents' origin, whether it be from the city or from outside the city, had no effect on their assessment of the comfort of life, nor on their expressed attitude towards tourists or their assessment of the impact of tourist traffic on the city (*p* > 0.05). A respondent's place of employment in tourism or outside the sector not only had an influence on their attitude towards tourists (*p* < 0.001), which would appear to be understandable, but also on their assessment of the impact of tourist traffic on the city (*p* < 0.001).

In terms of the differences between the assessment of residents and that of businesspeople providing tourist services in the city, significantly differing scores can be seen for all of the variables analyzed. While businesspeople displayed a lower level of comfort in running their business than the comfort of city life for residents (*p* = 0.029), in the case of their attitude towards tourists, businesspeople returned a significantly higher assessment than residents (*p* < 0.001). As far as the impact of tourist traffic on the city is concerned, it is worth noting that residents reported a significantly higher impact than did businesspeople (*p* < 0.001). This is understandable, however, given that businesspeople received income from tourist traffic, while only every second survey respondent was engaged in the tourism industry.

The results obtained on the attitude of residents towards visiting tourists was verified using a model of changes in residents' attitudes towards tourists according to Doxey [14]. To this end, residents were asked to indicate which attitude corresponds to their attitude towards tourists. The model was also supplemented with an extreme attitude as included in the Doxey model, but not named by him. This expresses a complete deterioration of tourism in the area under study, and thus was referred to as *decline*. During analysis of the results obtained in this area, it can be seen that the answers of the majority of respondents who reside in Kraków districts indicate the first two phases of the Doxey model (that is *euphoria* and *apathy*). These phases are indicated by almost exactly the same percentage of respondents (Figure 4). One exception is the district of Stare Miasto, where just under half of respondents chose the attitude *euphoria*, but which at the same time has the highest percentage of people who indicate their attitude as *antagonism* (13.6%). The youngest district in the city, Nowa Huta, has the best results, but it is also the city district which experiences the lowest impact of tourism.

When the research results are applied to the Doxey model, they show the highest level of negative indicators among residents and businesspeople in the Stare Miasto district, where there is the highest concentration of tourist traffic. Taking into consideration the recommended measurement of the phenomenon of excessive tourism, it can be safely hypothesized that there is a link between the level of acceptance and the features of overtourism [47].

**Figure 4.** Comparison of the attitudes of residents and businesspeople in the main districts of Kraków. (Source: own study).

Detailed results of the attitudes indicated are presented in Table 2. It is worth noting the differences in the attitudes of residents and businesspeople conducting business activity in the city. While every third resident indicated their attitude to be one of euphoria, expressed in the following terms: *I'm* *happy that tourists come to visit because that means income for the city, new contacts, jobs, prestige* ... (33.8%), this attitude was selected by as much as twice as many businesspeople (71.9%).

Among residents, 9.4% of people expressed their attitude as one of conflict, expressed in the following way: At the moment, tourists mainly just cause problems. There are too many of them, which means a lower comfort of life for residents. Something should be done about it, e.g., introduce limit, meanwhile, only 2.1% of businesspeople expressed the same opinion.


**Table 2.** Average scores according to the Doxey model. (Source: own work).

Respondents were also asked to indicate the key problems connected to the impact of tourist traffic on the city, as well as to assess the strength of their impact and the seriousness of the problem on a scale of 0–5 (Table 3). Respondents indicated 10 such areas, although while only seven problem areas were identified in Nowa Huta and Podgórze, as many as 16 were identified in the Stare Miasto district.

In general, the biggest problems in the city caused by tourist traffic were a lack of parking spaces (xAv = 3.63 ± 1.49), traffic congestion (xAv = 3.41 ± 1.47), high rent (xAv = 3.31 ± 1.56), crowded public transport (xAv = 3.29 ± 1.37), high land prices (xAv = 3.25 ± 1.63), air pollution (xAv = 3.17 ± 1.67) and rubbish (xAv = 3.04 ± 1.56), high prices for services and goods in shops (xAv = 2.79 ± 1.52), as well as excessive noise (xAv = 2.77 ± 1.72), and problems regarding short-term rental (xAv = 2.72 ± 1.83).

Respondents were also asked which areas of their lives were affected by the presence of tourists. An interesting set of results was obtained, which are presented in Figure 2. The most positive effect of tourism was seen to be aspects such as the economic situation (cost of living and income) and satisfaction related to professional and business life, as well as a feeling of pride in being associated with the city. It must be noted, however, that the average score is in general boosted by businesspeople, who returned significantly higher scores with regard to the positive effects (p < 0.05). Residents meanwhile returned considerably lower scores on the impact of tourism.


**Table 3.** Problematic issues in the city caused by tourist traffic. (Source: based on own study).

The only statistically insignificant results were obtained regarding the possibility for residents for religious observance and access to cultural sites (*p* = NS). For the remaining aspects of the phenomena studied, significantly differing average values were noticed between residents and businesspeople (*p* < 0.05). Residents more often than businesspeople indicated the negative impact of tourism on city life. One example is the negative impact on transport (in particular parking and getting around the city), as well as the condition of the natural environment in the district and the level of comfort of recreation in free time.

The visual depiction below of the scores given (Figure 5) shows the general attitude of residents and businesspeople towards the impact of tourist traffic on the city. While residents' assessments hover around the 0 mark, that is a neutral attitude towards the impact of tourism, the assessment of businesspeople connected with tourism are significantly higher and show a positive effect, but at a moderate level.


**Figure 5.** The impact of tourist traffic on particular aspects of respondents' lives. (Source: own study).

#### **5. Discussion**

The research results show varying attitudes among residents towards tourism and tourists, even in the Old Town district most affected by the phenomenon, which confirms previous research conducted by the authors using different methods [47]. The propitious attitude of businesspeople involved in tourism towards visiting tourists is more positive than in the case of residents. However, it must be noted that even in the latter group of respondents attitudes vary. The burgeoning of tourism in the most popular tourist district and subsequent gentrification are becoming a clearly visible phenomenon, although limited in terms of area [8]. The exceeding of the socio-psychological capacity is expressed principally in attitudes towards the difficulty in getting around the city, parking and noise but does not influence parameters such as quality of life and satisfaction from professional life, access to culture, or living costs. In fact, the presence of tourists strengthens residents' pride in the attractiveness of the city. It is worth drawing attention to the results for the district Podgórze, which is boosting its attractiveness for tourists and increasing available accommodation, thus becoming an area that is starting to absorb part of the tourist traffic and whose residents and businesspeople only display an attitude of irritation towards tourism to a very limited degree.

The literature draws attention to the fact that the processes of overtourism and gentrification result in destruction of the socio-cultural fabric of a city, lowering the quality of life, and causing an increasing number of residents to take the decision to move out of the historical city center [47,48]. Gentrification results in a change in the character of a part of the city. In most cases, this is true for districts originally inhabited by local tenants which then become dominated by residents of higher social and material status than the original residents. Kraków as a whole does not have a problem with a drop in the number of residents. However, negative population trends affect the first district, Stare Miasto. Year after year, there is a drop in the number of people registered as permanently resident. This trend has continued uninterrupted since 2004, when the number of those registered was 49,000, while in 2018 there were only 31,600 people registered [8,49]. This is a drop in registered persons of 36.5% over 13 years. This is partly due to the operation of P2P platforms, in particular AirBnB. In October 2019, the platforms AirBnB and HomeAway had almost 6900 premises available for short-term rental. After Warsaw, this is the second highest amount among all Polish cities, but is lower than direct competitors i.e., Prague and Budapest and the most popular European capitals [48]. In reality, however, when this number is taken in relation to the population of permanent residents, it is shown that the intensity of the phenomenon in Kraków is extremely high. This ratio is almost 9 premises for every 1000 residents, comparable to Prague and Amsterdam, and is higher than the results for cities such as Rome, Lisbon, and Barcelona. The strength of P2P websites is shown in tourist traffic research results for Kraków for 2019, according to which 34.1% of foreigners booked accommodation in the city via booking.com, and 29.7% via AirBnB [49–51]. Once the former residents have been pushed out, their place is taken by visitors who do not identify with the local community and do not take responsibility

for the cultural heritage of the area. For this reason, recommended models have been developed for managing the resilience of cities [52] in terms of the local community, the economy, and infrastructure.

An excessive concentration on specific city districts may lead to an increase in living costs, a reduction in retail options for residents, the transformation of houses and flats into tourists apartments, and other impacts limiting the lifestyle of local residents. Such phenomena can easily be observed in the Kraków Old Town district (together with Kazimierz) and require the development of tools to minimize the effects of the intensification of this process, which as a consequence may lead to the extreme negative stage of P. Russo's [3] vicious circle in the development of tourism, as described in the literature, and a crisis in tourism on the basis of the TALC tourist area life cycle [13]. The results of the study, together with desk research on Kraków tourism statistics, allow for an interpretation of selected criteria for the position of Kraków, as referred to in the models mentioned above.

The level of compatibility of the set of criteria for the decrease in tourism (Table 4) allow for a forecast to be made that also is a result of the specifics of Kraków as a historical medieval city. This forecast suggests that the development of tourist traffic in Kraków will not lead to further expansion of tourism, especially into districts that lie at a greater distance from the city's principal attractions. This will increase the contrast between the geographical distribution of benefits and of costs related to the functioning of the tourism industry in the city overall.


**Table 4.** Compatibility of criteria with regard to the decline of tourism in Kraków. (Source: own study).

The research confirms the initial hypothesis put forward. The actual attitudes of Kraków residents depend on the degree of involvement of residents in providing tourist services and obtaining income from such services, as well as on the place of residence in relation to the districts most crowded with tourists in the tourist destination.

It is also worth noting that the research confirmed that the historical part of the city is currently in the first phase of excessive development of tourism, illustrated by saturation in the supply of tourist sites and accommodation, limited resources (land, buildings, streets, parking spaces, etc.), and the palpable level of irritation in the community. The fact that residents and businesspeople from outside the tourist districts do not experience the side effects of overtourism may also in the long term give birth to conflicts between the city center, which bears the costs of the tourist industry, and neighboring local communities.
