4.2.5. Threats within the Agricultural Sector

The USAID Climate Risk Profile lists agriculture as one of the areas most impacted by climate change in the eastern southern Caribbean (ESC), where Trinidad and Tobago lies. This can be attributed to climate trends observed in the region that can make an already brittle agriculture sector even more fragile (USAID 2021). Heat-related changes of major concern for the sector are temperature patterns and the frequency and duration of natural disasters such as droughts (Makara 2021). Reports have shown that annual temperatures have increased 0.2 ◦C–0.7 ◦C, which varies (USAID 2021), and drier dry seasons have been observed in the country (Beharry et al. 2019).

Even though the agriculture sector in Trinidad and Tobago is overshadowed by its energy-driven economy (Oxford Business Group 2020), the effects of climate change will still be felt on the livelihoods of almost 2.9% of the population who are employed in the sector and the contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country (1.1%) (World Bank 2020). Many farmers utilize water from rivers for the irrigation of their crops; therefore, droughts during the months of January to May reduce their ability to do so (Beharry et al. 2019). This can lead to unproductive soils and timing and the reduced yield of crops (USAID 2021). Warmer weather from increased temperatures will result in arid soils, the proliferation of pests and diseases, and further irrigation challenges due to reduced water resources. In order to protect against these livelihood losses, climate risk insurance policies such as the Livelihood Protection Policy (LLP) under the Climate Risk Adaptation and Insurance in the Caribbean (CRAIC) project can be utilized by credit unions and farmers cooperatives (MCII 2020). However, after extreme climatic events such as tropical storms in the Caribbean, insurance premiums will likely rise in the region (Caribbean Development Bank 2020).

However, the combination of changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO<sup>2</sup> concentration have created new levels of agricultural productivity and adaptation in the Caribbean region (Reyer et al. 2017). These regimes may reshape growing days as well as modify the phenology of several crops. Some of the biophysical impacts of climate change can be amplified or mitigated by the management responses of farmers (Banerjee et al. 2021). For example, by 2050, there is expected to be a significant reduction in areas suitable for tomato growing, but alternatives can be used such as cassava, sweet potato, and yam. Additionally, the cocoa crop is expected to be more climate resilient, but precautions should be taken in the form of access to irrigation during more severe dry spells. Furthermore, there is increased climate suitability in the upland areas and surrounding mountain ranges for crops such as banana, cassava, sweet potato, yams, and ginger (Eitzinger et al. 2015).

With regard to the livestock and dairy sector of the country, rising temperatures and humidity can also result in a condition in animals called heat stress, resulting in reduced feed intake, increased risk of diseases, production losses, heat stroke, and even death. Moreover, these conditions will further exacerbate the current unfavourable situation in the dairy industry in the country (Ali et al. 2019). According to farmers, there is a greater predicament to produce milk. This is due to the increase in feed prices, which can be attributed to global shipping costs as the country does not produce corn or grass suited for dairy production (Chaitram 2021).

The reliance on external sources for animal feed is a trend that can also be seen in the food supply for the rest of the country. This is evident in Trinidad and Tobago's high food import bill of TTD 5 billion, which makes up 18% of the country's entire imports (World Bank 2021). Furthermore, the country is the second largest exporter of US agricultural products in the English-speaking Caribbean. Domestic agricultural production is limited due to factors such as land space and natural disasters such as droughts and flooding (International Trade Administration 2022). However, agricultural production has recently been on a path to recovery. Inflation in the country is driven by food prices in both international and domestic fluctuations, and therefore, a goal of the National Food Production Action Plan aims to reduce the food inflation rate (Shik et al. 2019).

#### 4.2.6. Threats within the Energy Sector

As global temperatures continue to rise, there has been greater demand for efficient cooling for both comfort and health reasons. Globally, as of 2018, the use of air conditioners and electric fans to stay cool accounted for about 20% of the total electricity used in buildings (International Energy Agency 2018). China saw the greatest and fastest increase in energy use for cooling since 1990, resulting in a 69-fold increase by 2016 with the growth showing no signs of slowing (International Energy Agency 2018). Although these space coolers alleviate the heat, they also paradoxically contribute significantly to further warming, as these alone could cause 0.4 ◦C of additional warming by the end of the century. This leads to a positive feedback loop where extreme heat necessitates space cooling, while more space cooling results in increased ambient heat.

In Trinidad and Tobago, the demand for cooling is influenced by its proximity to the equator and its average temperature of 26.5 ◦C along with increased urban

development (Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago 2020). In 2020, Trinidad and Tobago imported a value of USD 21.5M in air conditioners alone, accounting for 0.45% of total imports (Observatory of Economic Complexity 2020). Furthermore, the country imported a value of USD 19.1M in refrigerators, amounting to a further 0.4% of total imports (Observatory of Economic Complexity 2020).

Apart from space cooling, many industrial processes require systems to be cooled via a coolant. In many cases, the most common coolant used is water due to high heat capacity and low cost (Benedict et al. 2020). Water used for cooling typically enters the industrial system from water storage tanks or manmade ponds located within the facility. If the ambient temperature is higher due to extreme heat, the cooling capacity of the water decreases as it enters the system at a higher temperature than usual (Buryn et al. 2021). This subsequently reduces the efficiency of the process itself and can ultimately result in increased prices of the final product. In Trinidad, the industrial estates of Point Lisas, Frederick Settlement, Otahiete, La Brea, Point Fortin, and Galeota can be affected by this as these industrial plants are listed to use water as a raw material for cooling purposes (Water and Sewerage Authority 2014).

### *4.3. Social Responses: Heat Resilience Strategies*

Trinidad and Tobago is classified as medium for extreme heat hazard, which means that there is more than a 25% chance that at least one period of prolonged exposure to extreme heat, resulting in heat stress, will occur in the next five years (ThinkHazard 2020). Out of the eleven regions in the country, only three (Tunapuna/Piarco, San Juan/Laventille, and Diego Martin) fall within the category of low (less than 1% chance); the others remain consistent with medium. Within these regions, those with pre-existing medical conditions such as respiratory-related illnesses, the elderly, children, persons who are uninsured, and persons employed outdoors are especially affected (Di Napoli et al. 2022).

In order to address the problems faced by citizens due to heat, the Government Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GORTT) created the National Cooling Strategy of Trinidad and Tobago. The 2020–2030 policy sets out national initiatives to address sustainable and environmentally friendly refrigeration and cooling, aligning with the Montreal Protocol and Kigali Amendment. Furthermore, in partnership with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the GORTT, 'The Energy Efficiency through the Development of Low-carbon RAC Technologies' project was created and funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). This project seeks to meet the nation's cooling needs in an energy-efficient manner and will deliver multiple benefits at the local, regional, and global levels (Simon and Constance-Huggins 2022). Other energy-efficient strategies to reduce carbon emissions include an Electric Mobility (e-mobility) Policy for Trinidad and Tobago, which is at an advanced stage of development according to Mr. Kishan Kumarsingh, Head of the Multilateral Environmental Agreements Unit of the Planning and Development Ministry (Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago 2021).

In addition to human health, livelihoods are also affected by extreme heat. Extreme heat has major repercussions for the agricultural sector (Khosla 2022). The National Food Production Action Plan 2012–2015, called "Agriculture Now," aimed to increase commodities grouped into staples, vegetables, fruits, aquaculture, livestock, and pulses and named cocoa and honey as their strategic crops (Shik et al. 2019). The cocoa crop is listed being as more resilient to climatic changes and would have greater potential than other crops (Eitzinger et al. 2015). However, greater investment is required to maintain innovations that will ensure stable and increased crop productivity in the changing climate (Lynch 2016).

Drought is a heat-related climatic variability and one which would be increased in frequency and intensity. To improve and manage the water resources of the country, the GORTT established the 'National Integrated Water Resources Management Policy'. It includes an objective to "minimize, mitigate and manage the impacts of flood, drought, and other water-related emergencies". On a household level, citizens utilize tanks during scheduled outages and cope with water stress (Fraser 2021). During drought conditions, grasses and trees dry out, becoming fuel for fires, and this can increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads (NIDIS 2018). Therefore, the Ministry of the Environment launched the Forest Fire Prevention Programme in 2014 so members of the public can report the incidence of a fire (GORTT 2014).

There are other mitigation measures that benefit ecosystem health and help reduce temperatures, such as reforestation and tree planting. In 2005, the National Gas Company (NGC) replanted hectares of trees lost due to pipeline construction, and in 2018, they conducted a carbon sequestration study with the University of the West Indies (UWI) Office of Research Development and Knowledge Transfer. They found that the trees had sequestered 2243 tons of carbon, and the research team estimated that the numbers would reach 5228 tons by 2030. This accounts for at least 1% of the CO<sup>2</sup> tonnage the country aims to cut from the transportation sector by that date (Belle 2020). Furthermore, Adopt A River, which is an initiative developed by WASA, regularly plans and executes tree planting exercises and reforestation activities (Adopt a River 2021).

In more urbanized parts of the country, green roofing systems not only provide the owners of buildings with a proven return on investment but also moderate the heat island effect. Green roof temperatures can be up to 4 ◦C lower than those of convectional rooftops and reduce building energy use by 0.7% compared to conventional roofs, reducing peak electricity demand and leading to annual savings (EPA 2022). Another mitigation strategy which has not been utilized in the country but would be beneficial to heat reduction are cool pavements. These are composed of paving materials that reflect more solar energy and enhance water evaporation. Researchers predicted that an increase in pavement reflectance from 10 to 35% could potentially reduce city temperatures by (0.6 ◦C) which would lower energy use and reduce ozone levels (EPA 2012).
