*Article* **The Effects of Climate Change on the Tagus–Segura Transfer: Diagnosis of the Water Balance in the Vega Baja del Segura (Alicante, Spain)**

**Antonio Oliva Cañizares \*, Jorge Olcina Cantos and Carlos J. Baños Castiñeira**

University of Alicante, 03690 San Vicente del Raspeig, Spain; jorge.olcina@ua.es (J.O.C.); carlos.banos@ua.es (C.J.B.C.)

**\*** Correspondence: antoniogeografia1@gmail.com

**Abstract:** Climate change is one of the most important problems facing society in the 21st century. Despite the uncertainty about the behaviour of rainfall due to climate change, what is clear is that average rainfall has been reduced in the inland areas and headwaters of Spain's river basins. The Tagus basin is one of the most affected, with implications for the Jucar and Segura basins. The working hypothesis is to corroborate with the data collected on the effects of climate change on the TTS. To this end, the following methodology has been applied: (a) analysis in the headwaters of the Tagus, using data on precipitation, surface runoff and reservoir water; (b) analysis of the resources of the Segura basin (supply and demand), based on the basin organisation's own data; (c) construction of a water balance adjusted to the Bajo Segura district (Alicante), a user of the water transferred for agricultural use. Likewise, the data provided by the basin organisation have made it possible to corroborate the data on consumption and allocation of the corresponding volumes of water. The results obtained make it possible to put forward a novel proposal in the scientific field related to hydrological planning based on the principles of sustainability.

**Keywords:** climate change; Tagus–Segura transfer; sustainable hydrological planning; Bajo Segura
