*2.4. Evaluation of Criteria Weights*

After the criteria are set, implementing pairwise comparisons with experts related to the topic is required. Experts from town planning, municipalities, antiquities, universities, and chambers were selected to fill the comparison tables for the main and sub-criteria. The target group included architects, urban planners, academicians, and managers, who compared the given criteria by using the model proposed by Saaty [26]. The weights were calculated for each criterion (Table 1). Consistency Ratio (CR) values were also controlled for each comparison and are within the acceptable threshold (<0.05).

**Figure 4.** Hierarchy for Sustainable Urban Regeneration for Historic Urban Quarters.


**Table 1.** Comparison and weight results for the selected criteria set.

#### **3. Data Collection and Results**

One of the most challenging aspects of the current study was the scope of data collection. Whereas in many regions public and transparent data on issues such as spending, occupation, taxes, subsidies, crime rates, and funded projects are available, in this case, similar to many other parts of the region, accessing detailed economic data is not feasible [59]. Even when available, the data are very general and lack necessary details suitable for AHP analysis. The current data sets addressing 24 sub-criteria for two alternatives were collected using police department reports, UNDP, municipalities, the antiquities department, the environment department, the town planning department, available GIS data, Open Street Map (OSM), existing literature, master plans, and housing market websites. It must be noted that AHP is especially helpful in these cases when the influencing factors are numerous, intricate, interrelated, from different sources, or even at odds with one another. [24,42,60]. This approach, coupled with the expert evaluation, ensures that the results address the intrinsic complexity of the topic from multiple perspectives.

### *3.1. Economic Dimension*

*Amount of investments that support amenities (T1):* The economic sub-criteria were evaluated using different data collection methods. The amenities were evaluated based on their frequency as displayed on the Open Street Map (OSM) platform. OSM has proven to be a reasonably reliable image of the region's public amenities [46]. The numbers were first adjusted for the area in each case before conducting a pairwise comparison. Northern Nicosia, due to its administrative dimension and centrality, contains more public amenities compared with Famagusta. Nevertheless, these amenities are not equally distributed across the area and are more focused on central parts and tourist attractions.

*Amount of investment for neighborhood regeneration (T4):* Neighborhood regeneration investments are more numerous in Northern Nicosia. Many neighborhood regeneration plans have been proposed and implemented over the last two decades within the framework of the Nicosia Master Plan, which is an ongoing effort to preserve Nicosia's urban and architectural heritage regardless of its borders [49,51]. These projects in northern Nicosia included housing rehabilitation programs in Arabahmet, Samanbahce, and Selimiye [61]. Famagusta, on the other hand, has seen very limited investment for neighborhood regeneration, and the majority of the focus has been oriented toward more significant historical buildings and monuments [62]. Although small social housing units have been constructed on the northern side of the walled city by the municipality, the area lacks a clear plan for investing in neighborhood regeneration.

*Affordable Housing (amount of housing prices or rents) (T1) and Number of projects for supporting local production (T1):* Housing affordability was measured by exploring all available sales and rental options on the two major websites that are widely used in the region (23 cases in Nicosia and 14 cases in Famagusta). The collected prices were adjusted by area, and the averages were used for the comparison. The average price of housing is relatively higher in Famagusta (GBP 1029 per m2) compared to Nicosia (GBP 788 per m2), but the range of prices is much wider in Northern Nicosia (GBP 2228-246 per m2) compared to Famagusta (GBP 1400-418 per m2). What is more, the physical condition of housing in Northern Nicosia varies from neighborhood to neighborhood. For the criterion addressing local production, the number of workshops, shops, and non-governmental organizations supporting local production were counted and compared (adjusted for population). Nicosia, due to its centrality, higher tourist numbers, and its closeness to the border, has more activities associated with local production. Supporting local production and local involvement, which is an intrinsic dimension of Target 1, is a critical aspect of resilient neighborhood regeneration. Putting emphasis on mere physical improvement can create undesirable social side effects such as gentrification and unintentional displacement of the local population. Therefore, exploring the success of a regeneration plan needs to include intentions for the future stability of the social fabric.

#### *3.2. Social Dimensions*

As with the economic dimension, each social sub-criteria value was obtained from different resources. Accessibility to basic services and green spaces was analyzed in a GIS environment by using the near distance tool. Within the historical environments, the distances from schools, markets, and green spaces were calculated (see Figure 5) and the average distance from each house was added to evaluation Table 3. According to the local municipalities, regeneration projects that support alternative transportation modes are very limited. There are only a few pedestrianized roads in the historical environment. The percentage of crime values was generated with population data, and total crime values were obtained from local police and planning. In addition, the case area's proximity to green space and the percentage of children's access to green spaces were investigated.

**Figure 5.** Accessibility to Schools in Nicosia (**a**) and Famagusta (**b**) Walled Cities.

*Proximity to basic services, distance to shopping areas, and distance to school (T1):* Accessibility to basic services is one of the essential dimensions of sustainable urban development. This is particularly critical regarding local accessibility because it would reduce the necessity for vehicular traffic [63]. Local accessibility improvement would allow people to conduct many activities of their daily lives within their neighborhoods [64] and has a direct impact on their quality of life [65]. The sub-criteria, in this case, were measured by averaging the distance from all residential units to the local government schools. Both cases contain schools within the walls, and the network structure is relatively similar in both cases (Figure 5). Therefore, both cases, although isolated from the city to some extent, show high internal accessibility, which is expected from organically developed historic urban tissues (see [66]).

*Access to public transportation routes or bus stops (sustainable transportation) (T2):* Public transportation plays a key role in developing cities that are less car-dependent and more sustainable [67]. Having a bus stop within walking distance has a significant impact on residents' mode of transportation, which reduces traffic and pollution while encouraging walking [68]. Equal access to public transportation for all residents is a social necessity for sustainable development [69]. In this case, the two cities are highly dependent on cars, and public transportation remains limited to the services provided by the universities [70]. The buses do not enter the walled city and are not permitted to do so due to their weight and size. Furthermore, there is no support for smaller shuttle buses that can supplement the existing system. Accordingly, all bus stops and routes are directly connected to the gates and are not highly accessible (Figure 6), especially considering the peak climate conditions, which might make walking to the bus stops undesirable.

**Figure 6.** Accessibility to Bus Stops in Nicosia (**a**) and Famagusta (**b**) Walled Cities.

*Regeneration projects that support alternative transportation modes (T2):* There is very limited access to alternative transportation modes in both cases. There are some private bicycle stands supported by local mobile phone companies, but these facilities are often oriented toward touristic activities and not usable by the local residents. What is more, there are no dedicated bicycle lines that encourage locals to use alternative modes of transportation. Sustainable transportation in this regard is highly influenced by the way people imagine and think about it in terms of their daily routines [71]. Therefore, it could be assumed that the degree of availability of infrastructure supporting alternative transportation modes would impact people's attitudes toward them. Alternative transportation models in this sense can be considered a socio-cultural phenomenon where even the norms of what constitutes normal—or even acceptable—transportation vary from context to context [72]. Moreover, a combination of alternative and public transportation would have a much stronger positive environmental impact [73].

*Number of Crime/Crime Rate Per Capita in Historic Urban Quarters (2011–2020):* The region is known to have a very low crime rate, especially regarding violent crimes [74]. This is evident from the nine years of data that are presented here. The crime rate data were collected from the police departments of both cities. In this case, instances of crime have been recorded with street names but do not provide exact coordinates (Table 2). The majority of these crimes are shoplifting and petty theft, which shows the concentration of these activities around commercial areas. However, even a trivial crime rate indicates the presence of inequality, social stratification, poverty, and crime rate as interconnected topics [75]. The relationship between crime and neighborhood regeneration is complex [76] and goes beyond the scope of this study. In general, reducing crime rates is essential to achieving sustainable neighborhood regeneration; nonetheless, neighborhood regeneration

can decrease the crime rate by creating new opportunities [77,78]. In both cases, it is evident that the crime rate is higher in areas that have undergone some renovation and are tourist destinations, which makes them more vital and vibrant with microeconomic activities and consequently more prevalent for the aforementioned type of crime that occurs in the city.


**Table 2.** Crime Analysis in Nicosia and Famagusta Walled Cities.

*Proximity to Green Space (T7) and Percentage of Children's Access to Green (T7):* Providing just and proper distribution of green spaces throughout the city is a critical dimension of regeneration planning [79]. Both cases are dense organic urban tissues with walls and moats; accordingly, the largest green space for both cases is the moat. This historic defensive element now serves as a green pedestrianized path in both cases, albeit access to this space is limited through the gates of the walled cities. The central public spaces of both cities present open public spaces with some greenery, although this is more prominent in the case of Famagusta. Children's access to green spaces was determined by proximity to parks with designated areas for playgrounds—albeit at a smaller proxy. Famagusta has a slight edge over Nicosia regarding this criterion; with a children's playground located at the heart of the city, it provides better and more accessible green areas for children (see Figure 7).

#### *3.3. Environmental/Physical Dimensions*

The targets regarding the physical and environmental aspects of cities are very versatile within the framework of SDG-11. In this case, ten criteria were used to evaluate the two alternatives (addressing targets 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7). Screening UNDP project documentation, publicly shared information made available by municipalities, the LIPA 2019 socio-economic survey for the Gazima ˘gusa Iskele and Yenibo ˘gaziçi Master Plan, the Environment Department, and the Town Planning Department were used to collect the data. Some criteria were evaluated using analysis conducted on GIS maps of the region.

*Number of Road Safety Projects or amount of area for traffic calming (T2):* Road safety projects can significantly reduce the number of accidents [80], and they play a significant role in the success of urban regeneration projects [81]. In this case, the instances of road safety measures and their locations were collected from musicality maps. Both cities utilize measures such as speed control cameras, raised curbs, speed bumps, road textures, mirrors for sharp turns, and active police patrols. The entrance to both walled cities is limited by the weight and size of the vehicle. Although both cities have reasonable road safety features, Nicosia performs better. This is most likely due to its centrality, resources, and budget.

**Figure 7.** Accessibility to Green Space in Nicosia (**a**) and Famagusta (**b**) Walled Cities.

*Percentage of Shared Streets or Pedestrianized Streets (T2):* The impact of pedestrian movement on the quality of life in cities is well documented in the literature (see [82]). The comparison was conducted using data collected from the municipalities of the two cities. Nicosia has seen much more development in terms of road safety projects and pedestrianization efforts in line with its comprehensive master plan. Both cities include pedestrianized segments mainly around historic landmarks, but the efforts are more spread out and regulated in Nicosia. In this case, the comparison was conducted via the volume of pedestrianized space relative to the size of the walled cities.

*Percentage of neighborhoods or quarters regenerated (T4):* As mentioned before, only Nicosia hosts officially regenerated neighborhoods, namely, the housing rehabilitation programs in Arabahmet, Samanbahce, and Selimiye [61]. In Famagusta, neighborhood regeneration efforts are mainly limited to personal investments. The criteria weights here were generated by comparing the relative areas of residential neighborhoods that have gone through some regeneration.

*Percentage of buildings (listed) reconstructed (T4), and Percentage of landmarks that reconstructed (T4):* Within the framework of target 4 of SDG-11, the protection, rehabilitation, regeneration, and reconstruction of historic buildings and landmarks are highlighted [83]. The capital investments required for these protection plans need to be secured via multiple levels of government, including local communities, local administrations, the private sector, national governments, and global institutions—especially as outlined in indicator 11.4.1 [84]. Accordingly, the extent of these efforts illustrates the level of attention that exists surrounding a historic site from different perspectives. In this case, information was gathered through UNDP, municipalities, and the Antiquities Department. In terms of landmarks and more significant urban heritage, both cities have a good track record due to findings secured via UNDP programs. Nevertheless, urban tissues, residential buildings, and less-significant built heritage are less visible in these plans. These buildings require more engagement from private and local stakeholders. Examples of private investments in this regard can be seen in the rehabilitation of many residential buildings into cafes, shops, and tourist gift shops. It is necessary to note that, in accordance with all regeneration

charters, preservation of the context is as critical as the landmarks. This requires more attention in both cases.

*Number of losses caused by flood events or different disasters (T5):* Target 5 addresses issues related to the prevention of loss of life, particularly those associated with preventable causes. In this case, there are no recorded losses of life in the contemporary histories of the two cities caused by natural disasters, famine, or economic despair. The only real neural phenomenon that causes some problems is flooding, which is not severe and has not caused any loss of life.

*Existing waste collection services (T6):* A robust waste management system is vital for sustainable and resilient urban regeneration efforts [85]. Data were collected from the municipalities, and from a survey that was conducted by LIPA in 2019 addressing the occupancy evaluation of waste management systems. Waste management was ranked as the most important environmental sub-criterion by the experts (see Table 1). Although there are efforts for systematic separation of waste by material and recycling, these efforts are still very limited, and most collected waste finds its way into landfills [28]. Nevertheless, both cities are kept relatively clean. The sewage system, however, is lacking, and the majority of houses use septic tanks. Due to the historic layering of the city, the realization of an underground sewage system seems to be harmful.

*Air Quality (T6) and Ratio of areas in industrial services (T6):* These factors correspond to Target 6. Both cities have very low air pollution, and they are very similar in this regard; however, Famagusta's proximity to the cargo port might be a cause for concern for air pollution. In both cases, the industrial functions are located outside the walls, and very small areas are occupied by industrial land use (some car repair shops).
