The uncertainty in the evolution of crude oil price fluctuation has a significant impact on economic stability. Based on the decomposition of crude oil price fluctuation by the state-space model, this paper studies the fluctuation trend of crude oil...
Due to multiple properties, the international crude oil price is influenced by various and complex interrelated factors from different determinants in different periods. However, the previous studies on crude oil price fluctuation with economic polic...
Crude oil price shocks have led to a fluctuation in commodity prices through the industrial chain and supply–demand relationships, which can substantially influence a country’s economy. In this paper, we propose a transmission model of oi...
There has always been a complex relationship between uncertainty and crude oil prices. Three types of uncertainty, i.e., economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk uncertainty, and climate policy uncertainty (EPU, GPR, and CPU for short), have ex...
Price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, as important sources of energy, have a remarkable influence on our economies and daily lives. Therefore, it is extremely important to react appropriately and to formulate appropriate policies or strate...
Geopolitical factors are considered a crucial factor that makes a difference in crude oil prices. Over the last three decades, many political events occurred frequently, causing short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices. This paper aims to examine...
The dynamic interaction between crude oil prices and the prices of grains and oilseed is critical yet a complex issue in agriculture given the potential impact of the energy sector price fluctuations on production costs, transportation, and processin...
Ship navigation technical data contains a lot of information. In this paper, we explore a relationship between the crude oil price and tankers’ port-call features by mining the information recorded in Automatic Identification System (AIS), whic...
The goal of this study is to look into how changes in crude oil prices affect GDP per capita and exchange rate fluctuations.to investigate the influence of crude oil price shocks on GDP per capita and exchange rate movements. This research employed y...
Against the backdrop of increasing financialization of grain markets, the cross-cycle and cross-market contagion among commodities has been intensifying. To investigate the risk spillover among commodities across different cycles, this study selected...
This study investigates the influence of oil prices on tourism income in countries that heavily relied on crude oil exports from 2000 to 2017. We found that oil prices and tourism receipts are cointegrated, revealing the existence of their long-run e...
This study attempts to discover the nexus between crude oil price fluctuation after heavy oil upgrading and stock returns of petroleum companies in the U.S. Stock Exchange for the years 2008 to 2018. One of the methods of upgrading heavy crude oil is...
The food-energy nexus has attracted great attention from policymakers, practitioners, and academia since the food price crisis during the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and new policies that aim to increase ethanol production. This pa...
Crude oil is one of the strategic energies and plays an increasingly critical role effecting on the world economic development. The fluctuations of crude oil prices are caused by various extrinsic and intrinsic factors and usually demonstrate complex...
With the continuous increase of China’s foreign-trade dependence on crude oil and the accelerating integration of the international crude oil market and the Chinese finance market, the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on...
The global financial markets are greatly affected by crude oil price movements, indicating the necessity of forecasting their fluctuation and volatility. Crude oil prices, however, are a complex and fundamental macroeconomic variable to estimate due...
Presently, the total supply of crude oil is sufficient, but short-term supply and demand imbalances and regional imbalances still exist. The effect of crude oil supply security and price impact cannot be ignored. As the world’s largest oil impo...
Crude oil is one of the world’s most important commodities. Its price can affect the global economy, as well as the economies of importing and exporting countries. As a result, forecasting the price of crude oil is essential for investors. Howe...
The rapid fluctuations in global crude oil prices are one of the important factors affecting both the sustainable development and the green transformation of the global economy. To accurately measure the risks of crude oil prices, in the context of b...
Accurate crude oil price forecasting is essential, considering oil’s critical role in the global economy. However, the crude oil market is significantly influenced by external, transient events, posing challenges in capturing price fluctuations...
This paper constructs an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with oil to investigate the transmission mechanism and impact effects of oil price fluctuations driven by different factors on China’s macroeconomy using...
Recently, the world has experienced striking economic and policy changes, and subsequent uncertainties have impacts on dairy trade price fluctuations. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) methodology was established in this paper to better underst...
Combined with the B-P (breakpoint) test and VAR–DCC–GARCH model, the relationship between WTI crude oil futures and S&P 500 index futures or CSI 300 index futures was investigated and compared. The results show that breakpoints exist in the relat...
Grounded in the Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model, and BEKK-GARCH model, our current study aims to examine the effect of mean and volatility spillover between the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and West T...
Crude oil and grain, as two pivotal global commodities, exhibit significant price co-movement that profoundly affects national economic stability and food security. From the perspective of systems theory, the energy and grain markets do not exist in...
The crude oil market is one of the most significant sectors in the global economy. Fluctuations in oil prices impact the financial performance of national economies. Crude oil prices are also the basis of many popular financial derivatives on the fin...
Crude oil usage in (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) OECD countries has been significantly higher since the early 1970s and therefore, oil can be considered as one of the driving forces of the OECD economies. Moreover, oil pric...
Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air...
In the increasingly frequent global financial turmoil, investors prefer to invest in stable assets to hedge risks. Crude oil naturally has dual use value as a general commodity and as a financial asset, which has attracted wide attention. In this pap...
The main purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The prices of oil and its interactions with financial ma...
This study investigated market efficiency across 20 major commodity assets, including crude oil, utilizing fractal analysis. Additionally, a rolling window approach was employed to capture the time-varying nature of efficiency in these markets. A Gra...
The accurate and stable prediction of crude oil prices holds significant value, providing insightful guidance for investors and decision-makers. The intricate interplay of factors influencing oil prices and the pronounced fluctuations present signifi...
This paper aims to analyze the impact of implied volatility on the costs, break-even points (BEPs), and the final results of the vertical spread option strategies (vertical spreads). We considered two main groups of vertical spreads: with limited and...
This study employs asymmetric quantile regression to investigate the asymmetric impact of WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock market returns from May 2014 to December 2024 in oil-importing (China, India, Germany, Italy...
This study decomposed shocks of the global crude oil (GCO) market and Korean gasoline (KG) market into six types using the structural vector auto-regressive model. Breaking down the shocks into six, we analyzed how each shock affects the macroeconomy...
Crude oil has dual attributes of finance and energy. Its price fluctuation significantly impacts global economic development and financial market stability. Therefore, it is necessary to predict crude oil futures prices. In this paper, a hybrid forec...
Indonesia’s dependence on fossil fuel exports, particularly coal and crude oil, presents a dual challenge: sustaining economic growth while addressing rising CO2 emissions. Despite significant attention to domestic energy consumption, the envir...
High-frequency fluctuations in the international crude oil market have led to multilevel characteristics in China’s domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. To address the poor fitting performance of single deep learning models on oil price data...
Changes in crude oil price affect the shipping freight market via three different channels. This study explores the dependence structure between oil prices and maritime freight rates to identify the effective channel. Therefore, it investigates the r...
The purpose of this study was to analyze the irregular pattern of changing inflation as a result of the pass-through of the exchange rate and fluctuations in oil prices in the current globalization scenario. We used annual data sets for crude oil pri...
Heavy-oil resources represent a large percentage of global oil and gas reserves, however, owing to the high viscosity, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques are critical issues for extracting this type of crude oil from the reservoir. According to t...
Crude oil price forecasting is an important task in energy management and storage. In this regard, deep learning has been applied in the literature to generate accurate forecasts. The main purpose of this study is to design an ensemble prediction sys...
In this work, Functional Data Analysis (FDA) is used to detect behavioral patterns in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) in reaction to the global crises caused by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. The oil price fluctuation curve is considered a c...
31 August 2022
Revealing the effect mechanism of carbon price drivers is the basis to establish the pricing mechanism of carbon emission exchange, which also promotes the development of the carbon emission exchange market and can reduce the investment risk. Based o...
The whole world has entered the era of the Vuca. Some traditional methods of problem analysis begin to fail. Complexity science is needed to study and solve problems from the perspective of complex systems. As a complex system full of volatility and...
The COVID-19 outbreak has significantly affected global industrial and transportation markets. Airlines, rails, and cars’ industries and their supporting energy sectors have been substantially disrupted by the pandemic. This has resulted in und...
Despite the growing share of renewable energy sources, most of the world energy supply is still based on hydrocarbons and the vast majority of world transport is fuelled by oil products. Thus, the profitability of many companies may depend on the eff...
In the context of heightened oil price volatility, mastering technical trading strategies is essential for informed investment and sound decision making. This study explores the effectiveness of contrarian technical trading strategies in the Brent cr...
Investigating the stability of and fluctuations in the energy market has long been of interest to researchers and financial market participants. This study aimed to analyze the Chinese energy market, focusing on its volatility and response to financi...
The palm biodiesel industry is facing many challenges implementing biodiesel program in Malaysia. This paper addresses the importance of the B10 blend (10% biodiesel, 90% petroleum diesel), global challenges of palm oil import and export, and protect...
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