Search Results (3,138)

In Haiti, uncontrolled urbanization is increasing pressure on agricultural landscapes, compromising both their ecological integrity and productivity. This study examines spatio-temporal land-use changes across three agricultural plains, Cul-de-Sac, Maribahoux, and Léogâne, between 1997 and 2024, using Landsat imagery and landscape metrics of composition (percentage of landscape, PLAND) and configuration (largest patch index, LPI). The findings reveal a rapid expansion of built-up areas, primarily at the expense of farmland. In the Cul-de-Sac plain, built-up areas and bare soil grew by 152%, from 41.26 km² to 104.11 km², while agricultural land became highly fragmented (LPI dropping from 94.51% to 57.63%). In Maribahoux, urbanization was more moderate, partly offset by a temporary rise in woody vegetation that peaked at 20.04% in 2022 before declining. The Léogâne plain experienced a 17.38 km² increase in built-up areas and bare soil, alongside a slight decrease in woody vegetation. Population density showed limited differences in Maribahoux and Léogâne, but marked disparities in Cul-de-Sac, where landscape transformation was more pronounced. These findings highlight increasing fragmentation of agricultural landscapes, threatening ecological connectivity and functionality, and stress the urgent need for land-use planning that curbs urban growth, protects farmland, and safeguards biodiversity. Full article

This study investigates the influence of different effective precipitation (P_e) estimation methods on drought index performance in a humid region of Türkiye. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) were compared with their effective precipitation-based counterparts, Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI) and Effective Reconnaissance Drought Index (eRDI), using four P_e estimation methods: USBR (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation), USDA-(Simplified and CROPWAT) (U.S. Department of Agriculture), and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). Data from three closely located meteorological stations (Çanakkale, Bozcaada, and Gökçeada) were analyzed across multiple time scales (1-, 3-, 6-, 12-month, and annual). Statistical metrics—coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)—were used to assess the indices, and trend analyses were conducted using the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope tests. The USDA-Simplified method consistently showed the highest accuracy across all stations and time scales (R² ≈ 0.99; lowest RMSE ≈ 0.09; NSE > 0.95), while the FAO method performed poorly, particularly at the 1-month scale. Drought frequency and severity were found to increase with time scale, contrary to trends observed in arid regions. Trend analysis revealed no significant changes at short time scales, but statistically significantly increasing drought severity was detected in longer scales, especially in Çanakkale, with slopes reaching up to –0.018 per year. The findings highlight the importance of selecting appropriate P_e estimation methods for accurate drought assessment, even in humid climates, and support the use of aSPI and eRDI with the USDA-Simplified method. Full article

Reliable precipitation estimates are critical for climate analysis and ecosystem management in regions with complex topography and limited ground-based observations. Bolivia, where the Andes, inter-Andean valleys, and Amazonian lowlands converge, presents sharp climatic heterogeneity that challenges both satellite retrievals and reanalysis products. This study evaluated three widely used datasets, MSWEP V2.2, CHIRPS V2, and ERA5-Land, against monthly station records from 1980 to 2022 to identify the most reliable precipitation estimations for hydrological and climate applications in five distinct regions. We applied a robust validation framework that integrates continuous and categorical performance metrics into a Combined Accuracy Index (CAI), providing a balanced measure of magnitude and event detection skill. Additionally, we implemented a conservative trend analysis with explicit correction for serial autocorrelation to ensure reliable identification of long-term changes. The results showed that MSWEP V2.2 consistently outperforms CHIRPS V2 and ERA5-Land across most regions, achieving the highest combined skill. In the Altiplano, MSWEP reached a CAI of 0.91, compared to CHIRPS (0.80) AND ERA5-Land (0.68). In the Valles region, MSWEP also led with 0.85, outperforming CHIRPS (0.79) and ERA5-Land (0.51). By contrast, CHIRPS V2 performed better in the Llanos (0.85) relative to MSWEP (0.82) and ERA5-Land (0.79). In the Chaco, MSWEP and CHIRPS performed similarly (0.80 and 0.81, respectively), while ERA5-Land scored 0.70. In the Amazonian lowlands, all three products performed well, with MSWEP ranking first (0.93), followed by ERA5-Land (0.88) and CHIRPS (0.86). ERA5-Land systematically overestimated precipitation across Bolivia, with annual biases above 36 mm month⁻¹. Trend analysis revealed significant precipitation declines, particularly in the Llanos (MSWEP: −0.88 mm year⁻¹; CHIRPS: −1.19 mm year⁻¹; ERA5-Land: −0.90 mm year⁻¹), while changes in the Altiplano, Valles and Amazonia were weaker or nonsignificant. These findings highlight MSWEP V2.2 as the most reliable dataset for Bolivia. The methodological framework proposed here offers a transferable approach to validate gridded products in other data-scarce and environmentally diverse regions. Full article

Early prediction of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) yield is essential for improving productivity in tropical agricultural systems. In this study, we integrated canopy structural metrics obtained with the Tracing Radiation and Architecture of Canopies (TRAC) system, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral measurements (normalized difference vegetation index—NDVI, projected canopy area), and phenological variables collected from stages R6 to R8 under non-limiting nitrogen conditions. Exploratory analyses (correlation, variance inflation factors—VIF), dimensionality reduction (principal component analysis—PCA), and regularized regression (Elastic Net/LASSO), combined with bootstrap stability selection, were applied to identify a parsimonious subset of robust predictors. The final model, composed of six variables, explained approximately 72% of the variability in plant-level grain yield, with acceptable errors (RMSE ≈ 10.67 g; MAE ≈ 7.91 g). The results demonstrate that combining early vigor, radiation interception, and canopy architecture provides complementary information beyond simple spectral indices. This non-destructive framework delivers an efficient model for early yield estimation and supports site-specific management decisions in common bean with high spatial resolution. By enhancing input-use efficiency and reducing waste, this approach contributes to sustainable development and aligns with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for climate-resilient agriculture. Full article

Spatial Daylight Autonomy (SDA) and Annual Sunlight Exposure (ASE) are widely adopted metrics for daylight performance assessment in sustainable building design. While valuable, the complexity of these metrics, particularly due to the influence of indirect bounced light, makes them difficult to interpret, especially in high-density residential buildings with multiple apartment units. Additionally, the computational intensity of such analyses limits their practical use in early-stage design or unit comparison. As a result, potential residents often rely solely on direct sunlight exposure when evaluating units without access to meaningful comparative data. To address this gap, this study proposes a simplified daylight evaluation metric, termed the Annual Daylight Index, that is both intuitive and computationally efficient. The index is defined as the total number of annual sunlight hours received across all floor areas of a building, divided by the number of rooms. Implemented using visual programming within a BIM environment, the method leverages a reverse sunlight tracing approach. Its accuracy and efficiency were verified by comparing results and computation times against established daylight simulation tools. The resulting index enables both micro (unit-level) and macro (building-level) comparisons, offering a practical tool for designers, residents, and researchers engaged in daylight evaluation of multi-unit housing projects. Full article

This paper proposes a novel multiscale random forest model for stock index trend prediction, incorporating statistical inference principles to improve classification confidence. Traditional random forest classifiers rely on majority voting, which can yield biased estimates of class probabilities, especially under small sample sizes. To address this, we introduce a multiscale bootstrap correction mechanism into the ensemble framework, enabling the estimation of third-order accurate approximately unbiased p-values. This modification replaces naive voting with statistically grounded decision thresholds, improving the robustness of the model. Additionally, stepwise regression is employed for feature selection to enhance generalization. Experimental results on CSI 300 index data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms standard classifiers, including standard random forest, support vector machine, and weighted k-nearest neighbors model, across multiple performance metrics. The contribution of this work lies in the integration of hypothesis testing techniques into ensemble learning and the pioneering application of multiscale bootstrap inference to financial time series forecasting. Full article

The soil freeze–thaw process is a dominant disturbance in the seasonally frozen ground and the active layer of permafrost, which plays a crucial role in the surface energy balance, water cycle, and carbon exchange and has a pronounced influence on vegetation phenology. This study proposes a novel density-based Freeze–Thaw Disturbance Index (FTDI) based on the identification of the freeze–thaw disturbance region (FTDR) over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). FTDI is defined as an areal density metric based on geomorphic disturbances, i.e., the proportion of FTDRs within a given region, with higher values indicating greater areal densities of disturbance. As a measure of landform clustering, FTDI complements existing freeze–thaw process indicators and provides a means to assess the geomorphic impacts of climate-driven freeze–thaw changes during permafrost degradation. The main conclusions are as follows: the FTDR results that are identified by the random forest model are reliable and highly consistent with ground observations; the FTDRs cover 8.85% of the total area of the QTP, and mainly in the central and eastern regions, characterized by prolonged freezing durations and the average annual ground temperature (MAGT) is close to 0 °C, making the soil in these regions highly susceptible to warming-induced disturbances. Most of the plateau exhibits low or negligible FTDI values. As a geomorphic indicator, FTDI reflects the impact of potential freeze–thaw dynamic phase changes on the surface. Higher FTDI values indicate a greater likelihood of surface thawing processes triggered by rising temperatures, which impact surface processes. Regions with relatively high FTDI values often contain substantial amounts of organic carbon, and may experience delayed vegetation green-up despite general warming trends. This study introduces the FTDI derived from the FTDR as a novel index, offering fresh insights into the study of freeze–thaw processes in the context of climate change. Full article

Climate change is increasing the drought frequency and severity, so projecting spatiotemporal drought evolution across climate zones is critical for drought mitigation. Model biases, the choice of drought index, and neglecting CO₂ effects on potential evapotranspiration (PET) add large uncertainties to future drought projections. We selected 10 global climate models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and downscaled model outputs using the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) method. We then developed a CO₂-aware standardized moisture anomaly index (SZI[CO₂]) and used a three-dimensional drought identification method to extract the duration, area, and severity; we then analyzed their spatiotemporal dynamics. To account for nonstationarity, Copula-based approaches were used to estimate joint drought probabilities with time-varying parameters. Projections indicate wetting in Southern Northwest China, Inner Mongolia, and the Western Tibetan Plateau (reduced drought frequency, duration, intensity), while Central and Southern China show a drying trend in the 21st century. Three-dimensional drought metrics exhibit strong nonstationarity; nonstationary log-normal and generalized extreme value distributions fit most regions best. Under equal drought characteristic values, co-occurrence probabilities are higher under SSP5-8.5 scenarios than SSP2-4.5 scenarios, with the largest scenario differences over the Tibetan Plateau and Central and Southern China. Full article

Transformer oil ageing alters key physicochemical properties, notably the refractive index (RI), due to physical, particulate, and chemical changes. As a result, refractometric fibre-optic sensors have gained attention for enabling real-time monitoring and overcoming the limitations of traditional offline diagnostics. This study explores the use of a Fabry–Pérot phase-modulated fibre optic sensor (FISO FRI RI Sensor) for in-situ ageing detection in four industrial transformer oils: natural ester, synthetic ester, Nytro Bio 300X (vegetable-based), and Polaris GX (mineral-based). The oils were thermally aged under controlled conditions following degassing and drying. The sensor performance was evaluated using key metrics, including repeatability, thermal response, settling time, and linearity. Results show high repeatability (with standard deviations below 7 × 10⁻⁵ RIU and repeatability coefficients under 2 × 10⁻⁴ RIU), stable thermal response (~0.0004 RIU/°C), and strong thermal linearity (R² > 0.99) across all samples. Natural ester and Nytro Bio 300X exhibited the most stable and consistent sensor responses, while synthetic ester and mineral oils showed greater variability due to temperature-induced RI shifts. These findings demonstrate the reliability and precision of this Fabry–Pérot phase-modulated sensor for online transformer oil condition monitoring, with strong potential for integration into smart grid diagnostics. Full article

Fishery resources of tuna serve as a vital source of global protein. This study investigates the key environmental drivers influencing the spatial distribution of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. A comprehensive dataset was constructed by linking the catch per unit effort (CPUE) from 43 Chinese longline fishing vessels (2008–2019) with 24 multi-source environmental variables. To accurately model this complex relationship, a total of 16 machine learning regression models, including advanced ensemble methods like Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Random Forest, and Categorical Boosting Regressor (CatBoost), were evaluated and compared using multiple performance metrics (e.g., Coefficient of Determination [R²], Root Mean Squared Error [RMSE]). The results indicated that the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model achieved superior performance, demonstrating excellent nonlinear fitting capabilities and generalization ability. For robust feature interpretation, the study employed both the model’s internal feature importance metrics and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. Both approaches yielded highly consistent results, identifying temporal (month), spatial (longitude, latitude), and key seawater temperature indicators at intermediate depths (T450, T300, T150) as the most critical predictors. This highlights significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the distribution of Thunnus albacares. The analysis suggests that mid-layer ocean temperatures directly influence catch rates by governing the species’ vertical and horizontal movements. In contrast, large-scale climate indices such as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) exert indirect effects by modulating ocean thermal structures. This research confirms the dominance of spatiotemporal and thermal variables in predicting yellowfin tuna distribution and provides a reliable, data-driven framework for supporting sustainable fishery management, resource assessment, and operational forecasting. Full article

The conventional OLSR protocol faces substantial challenges in highly dynamic and interference-intensive UAV environments, including high mobility, frequent topology changes, and insufficient adaptability to electromagnetic interference. This paper proposes a cross-layer improved OLSR protocol, OLSR-LCN, that integrates three evaluation metrics—link lifetime (LL), channel interference index (CII), and node load (NL)—to enhance communication stability and network performance. The proposed protocol extends the OLSR control message structure and employs enhanced MPR selection and routing path computation algorithms. LL prediction enables proactive selection of stable communication paths, while the CII helps avoid heavily interfered nodes during MPR selection. Additionally, the NL metric facilitates load balancing and prevents premature node failure due to resource exhaustion. Simulation results demonstrate that across different UAV flight speeds and network scales, OLSR-LCN protocol consistently outperforms both the OLSR and the position-based OLSR in terms of end-to-end delay, packet loss rate, and network efficiency. The cross-layer optimization approach effectively addresses frequent link disruptions, interference, and load imbalance in dynamic environments, providing a robust solution for reliable communication in complex FANETs. Full article

Background: During postoperative recovery, patients and their caregivers often lack crucial information, leading to numerous repetitive inquiries that burden healthcare providers. Traditional discharge materials, including paper handouts and patient portals, are often static, overwhelming, or underutilized, leading to patient overwhelm and contributing to unnecessary ER visits and overall healthcare overutilization. Conversational chatbots offer a solution, but Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems are often inflexible and limited in understanding, while powerful Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating “hallucinations”. Objective: To combine the deterministic framework of traditional NLP with the probabilistic capabilities of LLMs, we developed the AI Virtual Assistant (AIVA) Platform. This system utilizes a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) architecture, integrating Gemini 2.0 Flash with a medically verified knowledge base via Google Vertex AI, to safely deliver dynamic, patient-facing postoperative guidance grounded in validated clinical content. Methods: The AIVA Platform was evaluated through 750 simulated patient interactions derived from 250 unique postoperative queries across 20 high-frequency recovery domains. Three blinded physician reviewers assessed formal system performance, evaluating classification metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score), relevance (SSI Index), completeness, and consistency (5-point Likert scale). Safety guardrails were tested with 120 out-of-scope queries and 30 emergency escalation scenarios. Additionally, groundedness, fluency, and readability were assessed using automated LLM metrics. Results: The system achieved 98.4% classification accuracy (precision 1.0, recall 0.98, F1-score 0.9899). Physician reviews showed high completeness (4.83/5), consistency (4.49/5), and relevance (SSI Index 2.68/3). Safety guardrails successfully identified 100% of out-of-scope and escalation scenarios. Groundedness evaluations demonstrated strong context precision (0.951), recall (0.910), and faithfulness (0.956), with 95.6% verification agreement. While fluency and semantic alignment were high (BERTScore F1 0.9013, ROUGE-1 0.8377), readability was 11th-grade level (Flesch–Kincaid 46.34). Conclusion: The simulated testing demonstrated strong technical accuracy, safety, and clinical relevance in simulated postoperative care. Its architecture effectively balances flexibility and safety, addressing key limitations of standalone NLP and LLMs. While readability remains a challenge, these findings establish a solid foundation, demonstrating readiness for clinical trials and real-world testing within surgical care pathways. Full article

This study investigates the thermal resilience of naturally ventilated Lebanese residential buildings in the context of future climates, based on four climate zones: coastal (moderate and humid), low mountain (cool and seasonally variable), inland plateau (semi-arid with high summer heat), and high mountain (cold, with significant winter conditions). The aim of the study is to evaluate how passive envelope interventions can enhance indoor thermal resilience under five present and future work scenarios: TMY, SSP1-2.6 (2050 and 2080), and SSP5-8.5 (2050 and 2080). A baseline model was developed for typical building stock in each climate using EnergyPlus-23.2.0. The passive design parameters of window type, shading depth, and building orientation were systematically altered to analyze their effect on thermal comfort and building thermal resilience. Unlike previous studies that assessed either individual passive strategies or a single climate condition, this research combines multi-objective optimizations with overheating resilience metrics, by optimizing passive interventions using the GenOpt-3.1.0 and BESOS (Python-3.7.3 packages to minimize indoor overheating degree (IOD) and maximize climate change overheating resistivity (CCOR) index. Our findings indicate that optimized passive interventions, such as deep shading (0.6–1.0 m), low-e or bronze glazing, and southern orientations, can reduce overheating in all climate zones, reflecting a substantial improvement in thermal resilience. The novelty of this work lies in combining passive envelope optimization with future climate situations and a long-term overheating resilience index (CCOR) in the Mediterranean region. The results provide actionable suggestions for enhancing buildings’ resilience to climate change in Lebanon, thus informing sustainable design practice within the Eastern Mediterranean climate. Full article

Natural rubber quality assessment traditionally relies on subjective visual inspection, leading to inconsistent grading and processing inefficiencies. This study presents a colorimetric imaging system integrating 48-megapixel image acquisition with automated colorimetric analysis for objective rubber classification. Five rubber grades—white crepe, STR5, STR5L, RSS3, and RSS5—were analyzed using standardized 25 × 25 mm² specimens under controlled environmental conditions (25 ± 2 °C, 50 ± 5% relative humidity, 3200 K illumination). The image processing pipeline employed color space transformations from RGB through CIE1931 $XYZ$ to CIELAB coordinates, with yellowness index calculation following ASTM E313-20 standards. The classification algorithm achieved 100% accuracy across 100 validation specimens under controlled laboratory conditions, with a processing time of 1.01 ± 0.09 s per specimen. Statistical validation via one-way ANOVA confirmed measurement reliability (p > 0.05) with yellowness index values ranging from 8.52 ± 0.52 for white crepe to 72.15 ± 7.47 for RSS3. Image quality metrics demonstrated a signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 35 dB and a spatial uniformity coefficient of variation below 5%. The system provides 12-fold throughput improvement over manual inspection, offering objective quality assessment suitable for industrial implementation, though field validation under diverse conditions remains necessary. Full article

Organoids have emerged as powerful in vitro models for studying human development, disease mechanisms, and drug responses. A critical aspect of organoid characterisation is monitoring changes in size and morphology during culture; however, extracting these metrics from high-throughput imaging datasets is time-consuming and often inconsistent. Automated deep-learning approaches can overcome this bottleneck by providing accurate and reproducible image analysis. Here, we present an enhanced U-net-based segmentation model that incorporates region-of-interest refinement to improve the delineation of organoid boundaries. The method was validated on bright-field organoid images and demonstrated robust performance, achieving an accuracy of 98.15%, a dice similarity coefficient of 97.19%, and a Jaccard index of 94.53%. Compared with conventional segmentation methods, our model provides superior boundary detection and morphological quantification. These results highlight the potential of this approach as a reliable tool for high-throughput organoid analysis, supporting applications in disease modelling, drug screening, and personalised medicine. Full article