Search Results (6,692)

Advanced wastewater management systems are necessary to effectively direct severely contaminated initial rainwater runoff to the treatment facility only when pollutant concentrations are elevated during the initial flush event, thereby reducing the risk of water pollution caused by urban drainage systems. This necessitates the implementation of intelligent decision-making systems, forecasting, and monitoring. However, conventional “deterministic” forecasts are inadequate for making informed decisions in the presence of uncertainty regarding future values, despite the fact that a variety of modeling techniques have been employed to predict total suspended solids at specific locations. The literature contains a number of “probabilistic” forecasting approaches that take into account uncertainty. Among them, this paper proposes the Model Conditional Processor (MCP), which is well-known in hydrological, hydraulic, and climatological fields, to forecast the predictive probability density of total suspended solids based on one or more deterministic predictions. This is intended to address the issue. The decision to divert the first flush is subsequently guided by the predictive density and probabilistic thresholds. The effective implementation of the MCP approach is demonstrated in a real case study that is part of the USGS’s extensive and long-term stormwater monitoring initiative, based on observations of a real stormwater drainage system. The results obtained confirm that probabilistic approaches are suitable instruments for enhancing decision-making. Full article

This study, carried out as part of a large countrywide investigation into the sheep and goat industries in Greece, focused on respiratory problems of lambs and kids in Greece. The work was performed as part of a wider study performed in farms throughout the country with the participation of farmers, by means of an in-person questionnaire investigation. The specific objectives of the study were (a) the assessment of the presence of respiratory problems in lambs and kids and (b) the identification of variables associated with the presence of these problems in the farms. Data were collected from 325 sheep flocks and 119 goat herds. The annual incidence rate for respiratory problems in lambs was 1.4% (95% confidence intervals: 1.3–1.4%) and that in kids was 1.1% (1.0–1.2%). The annual incidence rate was significantly lower in farms that applied a semi-extensive or extensive management system (1.2% in sheep and 1.0% in goat farms) than in farms that applied an intensive or semi-intensive or extensive (1.5% and 1.3%, respectively) management system. In multivariable analysis, the lack of a barn for lambs, the proximity (<10 km) of the farm to industrial sites, and the experience of farmers emerged as significant predictors in sheep farms, and the proximity to industrial sites and the administration of antibiotics to newborns routinely emerged as significant predictors in goat farms. Sheep (27.4%) and goat (22.7%) farmers considered ‘pneumonia’ as the second most important health problem of lambs and kids. Respiratory problems were more often declared an important problem by farmers in proximity to industrial sites: 21.6% versus 12.5%. Overall, the study contributes information regarding the presence of respiratory problems in lambs and kids in Greece. A notable finding has been the association of proximity to industrial sites with a higher incidence rate of respiratory problems of lambs and kids in the farms. This has similarities to the results of relevant studies on people and potentially reflects that air pollution in the farm environment might be a factor to take into account in health management. One may also postulate that, possibly, data from farms can be employed to indicate potential risk from air pollution for humans, although further and more detailed work will be necessary to draw relevant conclusions. Full article

As global attention to sustainable development grows, the role of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices is becoming increasingly prominent across various industries, particularly in export-oriented sectors. This paper examines the impact of ESG performance on the export competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. By analyzing data from 9641 A-share listed manufacturing companies between 2011 and 2021, along with ESG ratings from the Huazheng database, this study investigates how ESG performance influences export competitiveness through financing constraints and risk-taking behavior. In the baseline regressions, ESG performance is positively associated with both the export sophistication index (ESI, coefficient = 0.0132, p < 0.05) and the log of export value (EXPORT, coefficient = 0.0241, p < 0.01). The findings show that superior ESG performance significantly enhances export competitiveness by reducing financing constraints and increasing risk tolerance. Further analysis reveals that the effect of ESG performance is stronger in regions with poorer business environments and among firms with lower institutional investor ownership. This study provides empirical evidence on how Chinese enterprises can enhance their international competitiveness through ESG practices, offering valuable insights for policymakers and business leaders seeking to integrate ESG and boost export competitiveness. Full article

Disasters caused by natural hazards, including the August 2023 floods in Slovenia and the 2020 earthquakes in Croatia, resulted in a combined damage and loss of about EUR 26 billion. Indemnity insurance covered only a small share, shifting recovery to public budgets. This review examines whether parametric insurance can provide transparent, pre-arranged, and auditable post-event liquidity to smooth public finances and support timely recovery. A structured qualitative review of peer-reviewed studies, supervisory materials, and EU and national law assesses data readiness, enforceability, and consumer protection duties. EU rules address parts of prudential and conduct risk. However, gaps persist in trigger verification, automated execution, and in the treatment of third-party trigger data sources and calculation methodologies documented for supervisory reviews and audits (no published parametric-specific accreditation standards). The core gap reflects the low take-up of catastrophe insurance rather than a low overall insurance penetration. Parametric cover is treated strictly as a complement to indemnity insurance. We outline narrowly scoped pilots using verifiable, publicly sourced triggers, version-controlled calculations, pre-tested basis risk disclosures, and reversible, auditable settlements with human oversight. Parametric designs add value only when verifiable triggers, transparent disclosures, and supervisory audits are embedded ex ante. Full article

This study examines whether CEO risk tolerance influences a firm’s sustainable practices, as measured by Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores. The analysis uses facial width–height ratio (fWHR) as a proxy for CEO testosterone and risk-taking behavior. A regression analysis of S&P 500 firms from 2018 to 2022 shows that a greater fWHR is negatively associated with ESG scores, although the economic effect is small. A one standard deviation increase in fWHR decreases ESG by half a point on a 100-point scale. Further investigation into CEO turnover reveals a surprising asymmetry: when a new CEO has a higher fWHR, ESG scores increase significantly compared to firms without a CEO change. This finding, along with other confounding effects, suggests that a certain amount of calculated, strategic risk-taking may be necessary to successfully promote corporate sustainability programs. Full article

The rising cost of traditional energy sources is forcing us to seek alternatives that enable energy self-sufficiency. At the Madrid Zoo Aquarium (Spain), the production of biomethane through the anaerobic digestion of organic waste is being considered, improving environmental management and achieving a competitive advantage in the energy management process. This opportunity also carries with it the possibility of explosions, fires or polluting environments, which requires the establishment of preventive measures to minimize these risks. To respond to this type of contingency, this study develops both empirical equation and charts that allow the establishment of dangerous distances that must be considered due to the presence of flammable gases escaping into the atmosphere and the duration of the danger, taking into account the influence of environmental conditions and dilution. Different risk situations are considered, both during the operation of the facility and during the cleaning and maintenance of tanks and equipment, as well as in the management of waste generated at the end of treatment. Full article

In this segment of the Palliative Care Unit case series, we introduce a patient with a long history of oncological treatments for recurrent breast cancer. After active treatments and a global control of the neoplasm, disease progression made the patient access different lines of chemotherapies, even asking for them in anticipation of a few advantages in the balance between benefits and risks. When the patient decided to permanently discontinue chemotherapy, she felt she had disrupted her values. Also, as a reaction to breaking bad news without estimating alternative paths, she considered her deteriorating condition as the sole criterion for assisted dying in another country. Could this be a self-consistent choice for this patient, so determined to find and pursue possibilities in treatment previously? Should this clue respond precisely to the patient’s needs? This contribution’s objective is to debate possibilities of patient self-determination and dignity at the end of life by integrating psychological support, palliative care, and legal–ethical awareness. This case study presents multidisciplinary team work through some key turning points. This team work was carried out in a national context that is currently inconclusive regarding assisted suicide, since active euthanasia is illegal. At the same time, the national Constitutional Court (242/2019) recently opened the possibility of eventual medically assisted suicide under certain circumstances. In this case, health professionals considered this context and tried to delve deeply into respecting the patient’s identity in order to determine when and if the exceptional circumstances were met. This case highlights the ethical sense of end-of-life accompaniment, which when conducted by physicians, nurses, and psychologists together can lead to effective support and allow patients to maintain their identity and to express themselves respecting not only their fears but also their vision of themselves as human beings. A first key turning point was, for instance, taking into account the patient’s history and values, and a subsequent one was supporting the patient in exploring healthcare services and related end-of-life support. In a further key turning point, the patient was helped in engaging with physicians in order to understand types of continuous care, as well as the timing and expected results of sedation. Finally, she chose a healthcare service where she could spend the end of her life in fulfillment of her values. Overall, this case report illustrates how integrating psychological support, palliative care, and legal–ethical awareness can promote patient self-determination and dignity at the end of life. Full article

This article addresses the storage of carbon dioxide [CO₂] in underground geological formations. It presents the results of a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of sequestering CO₂ in Cambrian aquifer units located within the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea. The northern segment of a structure within the Rozewie tectonic block was selected as the research and test site. The aim was to determine the sequestration capacity and select optimal locations for injection wells, taking into account storage safety. The results and conclusions are based on numerical simulations of CO₂ injection and plume migration within a brine-filled structure using Petromod software v. 2024. A geological model of the site was developed representing the spatial distribution of petrophysical parameters (porosity and permeability) of the reservoir and sealing horizons. Fault zones were also mapped and parameterised in order to evaluate the structural integrity and identify potential migration barriers for the injected gas. An initial assessment assumed the possibility of injecting 100 Mt of CO₂ into the analyzed structure over a 30-year period using ten wells. However, simulation results based on the current state of geological characterization demonstrated that injection performance may vary considerably between individual wells. Wells situated within zones of highest reservoir capacity were estimated to sustain injection rates of 6–7 Mt of CO₂ over 30 years, implying that a greater number of injection wells would be required to accommodate the target storage amount. Fault seal capacity was evaluated using an algorithm based on the Shale Gouge Ratio (SGR) criterion, which enabled the assessment of fault permeability and revealed potential risks of CO₂ leakage. Numerical simulations further facilitated the estimation of the reservoir’s storage potential and the optimization of injection well placement, considering both injection efficiency and the risk associated with CO₂ migration and leakage. Full article

The Loess Plateau is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, where rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides severely constrain regional economic and social development. Therefore, investigating the stability of shallow loess slopes under rainfall conditions is of great significance. Taking Yuzhong County in Gansu Province as an example, this study uses the SINMAP model (Version 2.0) to assess slope stability. The areas of unstable zones under different rainfall intensities were identified, and the spatial distribution of hazard sites was analyzed to evaluate the applicability of this deterministic physical model in the study area. Furthermore, a Personnel Risk Level (PRL) determined by combining population density with the Stability Index (SI, defined as the probability that the factor of safety exceeds 1: SI = Prob (FS > 1)) was proposed and applied to assess the potential impact of landslides on local residents. The novelty of this study lies in three aspects: (1) targeting Yuzhong County (a loess region with scarce comprehensive landslide risk assessments) to fill the regional research gap, (2) quantifying PRL through a modified hazard index (HI = population density × (1/SI)) to achieve spatialized risk mapping for vulnerable populations, and (3) systematically analyzing the dynamic response of slope stability to five gradient rainfall intensities (from light rain to severe rainstorm) and verifying model sensitivity to key parameters. The results show that as rainfall intensity increases, stable areas gradually decrease while unstable areas expand, with stable zones progressively transforming into unstable ones. Greater rainfall intensity also leads to an increase in the number of landslides within unstable zones. The proposed PRL helps delineate the severity of hazards in different townships, providing new references for mitigating casualties and property losses caused by landslides. Full article

Cases of confirmed tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) have increased dramatically over the last 30 years, highlighting growing endemicity across Eurasia. Two preventative vaccines, Encepur^® (Bavarian Nordic A/S, Hellerup, Denmark) and FSME-Immun^® (Pfizer Ireland Pharmaceuticals, Cork, Ireland), are licensed in Europe. For both vaccines, primary immunisation consists of a three-dose regimen, administered over approximately one year using “Conventional” dosing schedules. Both vaccines can also be administered using “Rapid” schedules, which shorten the interval between the first two doses but still take around a year to complete. Currently, only Encepur offers an approved “Express” schedule, whereby all three priming doses are given within 21 days. The effectiveness of TBE vaccination is markedly higher in individuals who receive ≥3 doses, compared with those who receive only one or two doses, indicating the importance of series completion. Moreover, seropositivity takes several weeks to develop after vaccination. As such, individuals are advised to initiate vaccination before peak tick season to allow sufficient time to develop protective immunity during periods of highest risk. Despite these considerations, vaccine uptake and series completion remain suboptimal in TBE-endemic regions. Furthermore, many vaccinees—including travellers with limited time before departure and residents of endemic areas—do not initiate vaccination until peak tick season, when risk is greatest. Broader use of Encepur’s Express schedule may help to address these challenges. The Express schedule’s 21-day timeframe may help to increase series completion by reducing drop-offs associated with prolonged dosing intervals. Additionally, it can support timely protection by enabling series completion, with sufficient time post-vaccination to develop protective immunity, all within a single-risk season, even among late initiators. In this narrative review, we evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of Encepur’s Express schedule and discuss its potential utility across a broader range of vaccinees. These insights may help inform TBE vaccine recommendations and support efforts towards improving vaccination strategies amid increasing TBE risk. Full article

Ecosystem services play a crucial role in maintaining ecological balance and supporting socio-economic development. However, long-term human activities and climate change have led to severe ecosystem degradation and exacerbated soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. This study takes the Loess Plateau as a case study and using key models such as Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of five ecosystem services—water yield, habitat quality, windbreak and sand fixation, soil conservation, and net primary productivity (NPP)—from 2000 to 2020. Based on the land use types projected by the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model for 2025 and 2030 under natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios, the study simulates these five ecosystem services and the comprehensive ecosystem service index for the Loess Plateau in 2025 and 2030. Finally, an ecological risk assessment model based on the inverse transformation of ecosystem services is constructed to identify key ecological restoration areas on the Loess Plateau by 2030. The results indicate: (1) From 2000 to 2020, water yield, soil conservation services, and NPP on the Loess Plateau showed a significant increasing trend, The unit area sand fixation capacity displayed a spatial pattern of higher values in the Northwest and lower values in the Southeast, while soil conservation and NPP exhibited the opposite trend, with higher values in the Southeast and lower values in the Northwest. Water yield decreased from the Southeast to the Northwest. During this period, the comprehensive ecosystem service index of the Loess Plateau generally declines, but the balance and synchronicity of ecosystem services improve, with a reduction in regional disparities. (2) Different future scenarios have different effects on the regional pattern of ecosystem services and restoration. Among future scenarios, the ecological protection scenario is most conducive to enhancing comprehensive ecosystem services, reducing the proportion of medium- and high-priority restoration zones. The cropland protection scenario has the lowest proportion of general restoration zones, but local ecological risks increase. The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration and land-use planning on the Loess Plateau, promoting the long-term stability and sustainable development of ecosystem services. Full article

This study explores the complex relationship between addiction and well-being among youth by examining social, behavioral, and economic factors. It aims to identify the key determinants influencing addiction and their impact on young individuals’ physical, mental, and social well-being. Utilizing a dataset including variables such as social isolation, academic decline, financial issues, and mental and physical health problems, the study applies correlation analysis and hierarchical clustering techniques to uncover significant patterns. The results reveal that behaviors like experimentation (ρ = 0.34), social isolation (ρ = 0.28), and financial stress (ρ = 0.22) are strongly associated with addiction. These findings suggest that early risk-taking behaviors, particularly experimentation, play a critical role in the development of addiction and highlight the importance of early intervention. Social and economic stressors are also key contributors, emphasizing the need for targeted prevention strategies. The study concludes that addiction among youth is a multidimensional issue requiring holistic responses, including enhanced social support, economic assistance, and improved access to healthcare. These insights can inform effective policies and interventions aimed at reducing addiction rates and promoting well-being in young populations. Full article

Background/Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia associated with significant morbidity, including stroke, heart failure, and increased mortality, necessitating oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy to reduce thromboembolic risk. However, OACs, including warfarin and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs), increase the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, a serious complication requiring precise risk stratification in the emergency department (ED). Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Emergency Department of Balikesir University Hospital in Turkey between 2019 and 2023 and evaluates systemic inflammatory markers as predictors of GI bleeding in AF patients receiving OACs. A total of 155 patients were divided into case (GI bleeding) and control (no GI bleeding) groups, comparing demographics, comorbidities, CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, and inflammatory indices (uric acid/albumin ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], systemic immune inflammation index [SII]). Results: For patients receiving NOACs, the case group exhibited significantly higher uric acid/albumin ratio, NLR, PLR, and SII (p < 0.05). For patients receiving warfarin, only the uric acid/albumin ratio was significantly elevated (p < 0.001). Hypolipidemia and elevated uric acid were associated with bleeding risk in patients receiving NOACs, while hypoalbuminemia and elevated urea predicted bleeding in patients receiving warfarin. HAS-BLED scores were significantly higher in bleeding groups, unlike CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores. Conclusions: These findings suggest that inflammatory indices, particularly in patients taking NOACs, are associated with GI bleeding risk stratification. Integrating these biomarkers into clinical practice could optimize personalized anticoagulation strategies, reducing morbidity and mortality in AF patients. Full article

Against the background of the rapid transformation of traditional economies and societies and continuous global climate change, how to ensure the long-term stability of the coastal ecological environment has become a key issue to be studied. In this paper, we take the 20 km buffer zone extending inland from the South African coastal zone as the study area. By constructing a vegetation vulnerability evaluation system, the current and future scenarios are compared in depth based on the base period (2010–2020), the near term (2030–2059), and the long term (2070–2099) with the help of GIS spatial analysis, the Moran index, and other methods. The results show that there are obvious spatial differences in vegetation vulnerability in the South African coastal zone. The extremely vulnerable areas of vegetation are mostly distributed on the west coast of South Africa, and some areas have obvious high–high aggregation patterns. The transfer of SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the near term is relatively stable, and the vegetation vulnerability level rebounds significantly in the long term; the vulnerability level of SSP2-4.5 scenarios has increased in both the near term and the long term, indicating that the risk of vegetation vulnerability has increased; while the SSP5-8.5 scenario has a significant deterioration trend in the long term, and the risk of vegetation vulnerability shifting to a high vulnerability level has increased significantly. Land use type has a significant impact on the response of vegetation vulnerability to SSP prediction. In the process of transformation from the base period to the long term, the proportion of vegetation vulnerability shifting to extremely vulnerable and severely vulnerable levels is notably high for both cultivated land and forest land—particularly under high-emission scenarios, driven by agricultural intensification for cultivated land and climate stress for forest land. This paper deeply explores the spatiotemporal evolution law and driving mechanism of vegetation vulnerability in the South African coastal zone under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, providing decision support for better development and protection of the South African coastal zone in the future. Full article

The rising prevalence of geopolitical conflicts and other disruptive events threatens the globally integrated supply chain of the integrated circuit (IC) industry. To identify the key industries and key enterprises within the IC industry and clarify the key influencing factors of the industry’s resilience, this paper takes the Chinese IC industry as the research object. Firstly, this paper has achieved the quantitative modeling of China’s IC industry system by constructing a three-level industrial chain and supply chain network. Then, using the agent-based modeling simulation method, a large number of risk events were simulated, and the key risk nodes within the system were identified. Finally, through the experimental design, this study completes the analysis of the key points of the resilience capability of China’s IC industry. The results provide theoretical insights into resilience mechanisms and support evidence-based management strategies for the IC industry. Full article