Economies

Economic security, understood as the capacity of an economy to sustain stable material living conditions for its households when adverse shocks occur, has become a central policy concern across the G-20. This paper examines the macroeconomic correlates of economic security in 19 G-20 economies over the period 2000 to 2023, with particular attention to heterogeneity across the security distribution. Economic security is measured by a composite index constructed through principal component analysis from gross domestic savings and the inverse of vulnerable employment, and an augmented index additionally incorporates public social protection expenditure. The empirical strategy combines two-step system generalized method of moments estimation, the augmented mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimators, panel unit root and cointegration tests that allow for structural breaks, and the method of moments quantile regression, thereby addressing dynamic endogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, structural change, and distributional heterogeneity. Income inequality and unemployment are negatively associated with economic security, whereas living standards, labor force participation, and financial development are positively associated with it. The mean group estimates exceed the short-run dynamic coefficients in absolute value, which indicates that these are structural rather than cyclical correlates. The associations are two to three times stronger at the 10th than at the 90th percentile of the index, and the point estimates are roughly twice as large among the emerging as among the advanced members, so that the scope for policy improvement is concentrated in the least secure economies.

Corruption research encompasses institutional, organizational, economic, and sociopolitical indicators that are related but not interchangeable. This study identifies literature-derived corruption-related indicators, assesses their content relevance through expert evaluation, and examines how specialized participants’ relevance ratings are empirically grouped. A sequential exploratory multi-stage design was applied. An integrative literature review generated a preliminary indicator pool; 18 experts assessed its content relevance; and the resulting conceptual pool was operationalized into a 20-item questionnaire administered to 376 specialized participants using a five-point Likert-type scale. Principal component analysis retained four components explaining 67.66% of the total variance. These components correspond broadly to institutional governance and corruption control; firm-level organizational mechanisms and corporate integrity; macroeconomic indicators and development outcomes; and sociopolitical context, elite capture, and accountability. The components summarize patterns of covariation among participants’ relevance ratings rather than causal mechanisms, relationships among the underlying socioeconomic phenomena, or direct measures of corruption or economic performance. The study provides an exploratory, perception-based, and literature-grounded framework for organizing corruption-related indicators and offers a basis for subsequent research using objective indicators, longitudinal designs, and comparative country-level analyses.

Money laundering associated with international trade is known as trade-based money laundering (TBML). Estimating, quantifying and identifying macroeconomic determinants of TBML is vital to provide an indication of illegal financial activity. The main objective of the study was to examine the macroeconomic determinants of South Africa’s estimated TBML with trading partners Africa and the European Union, by empirically examining the short-run and long-run dynamics. A quantitative research design was employed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, covering the period from 2001 to 2025. The results revealed TBML mechanisms in the two corridors, export under-invoicing dominates the Africa corridor, while the EU corridor had net over-invoicing in exports as well as imports. Trade openness and tariffs had a statistically significant positive relationship with TBML, while real exchange rate depreciation, financial development and institutional quality exhibited statistically significant negative relationships with TBML. Inflation exhibited a statistically significant positive relationship with TBML in the SA–Africa corridor, while the positive relationship in the SA–EU corridor was statistically insignificant. In conclusion, TBML macroeconomic determinants vary in magnitude across the two corridors. These findings highlight that TBML is not driven by a single factor but reflects the interaction of macroeconomic factors.