The available data on the impact of air pollution on acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are inconsistent. We investigated the influence of air pollution on the number of severe AECOPD hospitalizations of non-infectious etiology in patients residing in Novi Sad, Serbia. In this time-series, we used a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model in conjunction with distributed lag non-linear models, after controlling for lag days, seasonal and long-term trends, and meteorological factors (air temperature and humidity), to estimate the relative risk (RR) of AECOPD hospitalization for each increase of 10 μg/m³ in the air pollutant concentration. A total of 552 AECOPD hospitalizations were registered during 2017–2022. With each 10 μg/m³ increase in the selected air pollutants’ concentration, the cumulative RR (lags0–7) in single-predictor models for AECOPD admission were 1.52 (95% CI 0.98–2.35) for PM₁₀, 1.44 (95% CI 0.93–2.25) for PM_2.5, 1.13 (95% CI 0.87–1.47) for SO₂, and 0.99 (95% CI 0.69–1.42) for NO₂. Similar results were found in multi-predictor models as well as in group analyses between smokers and non-smokers. In conclusion, no significant associations between exposure to air pollutants and the daily AECOPD admissions were found. There is an obvious need for additional research on the topic. Full article

This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution, variation, abrupt change, and long-term trends of major pollutant emissions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) over the period 1960–2020 using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC)/CityZEN EU projects (MACCity) emissions dataset inventory. These pollutants are carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC). Seven stations were selected (Al-Bahah, Abha, Dahra, Jeddah, Riyadh, Qassim, and Ahsa), which correspond to the highest (hotspot) annual pollutant emissions. The annual cycle analysis of the six pollutant emissions revealed that there are four distinct patterns; the first one has one interannual wave while the other three patterns have two interannual waves. The analysis of the different sectors’ contributions to pollutant emissions revealed that the energy, transportation, and industries sectors have the highest percentage contributions. Significant abrupt change points were detected in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The development and growth rates in the KSA starting from the early 1970s are attributed to the oil boom. The great increase in pollutant emissions in the early 1980s followed by that in the 1990s up to 2000 is due to an increase in fossil fuel demand, industries, transportation, and energy consumption. Full article

In this paper, L-band sounding and surface observation data are used to calculate the boundary layer height (BLH) and evaluated CMA (China Metrological Administration Numerical Forecast System) and ERA5 in Xi’an for 2017–2021 using the Richardson (Ri) and Nozaki methods. For different PM_2.5 pollution levels, the correlation between the vertical profile of meteorological factors and BLH is explored. There is a certain negative correlation between BLH and PM_2.5 concentration. The BLH mean values of Nozaki, Ri, ERA5, and CMA from high to low are ~980 m, ~640 m, ~410 m, and ~240 m, respectively. The highest correlation is between ERA5 and CMA BLH with r² > 0.85 for all pollution processes, while it between other methods is significantly lower (r² < 0.58). The observational BLH is generally higher than the model results. Nozaki has a good adaptability on the light pollution, while Ri is more applicable to the stable boundary layer. In moderate and higher pollution, the ERA5 has a slightly better performance than CMA in BLH, while in light pollution there is a significant underestimation for both. Overall, the correlation between any two BLH methods gradually increases with increasing pollution level. In this study, there is about ~30% probability of polluted weather when BLH < 200 m and only <7% probability when BLH > 2000 m. It is difficult to simulate the neutral boundary layer and inversion processes for CMA and ERA5, but ERA5 has higher forecasting skills than CMA. This study can provide the data and theoretical support for the development of haze numerical forecast. Full article

The 2020 Meiyu season has received extensive attention due to its record-breaking rainfall in the Yangtze–River Huai Basin (YHRB) region of China. Although its rainfall features have been well studied on various time scales, the sub-hourly/hourly rainfall features are unknown. In this study, a wavelet analysis was applied to 1 min rainfall data from 480 national rain gauges across the YHRB, and hourly synoptic patterns during the Meiyu season were grouped using an obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode (PCT). The results suggest that variances on the sub-hourly and hourly scales contributed 63.4% of the 2020 Meiyu rainfall. The hourly synoptic variations in the Meiyu season can be categorized into three major patterns: weak synoptic forcing (P1), a convergence line (P2), and a vortex (P3). The rainfalls under P1 were spatially dispersed over the YHRB and on the shortest time scale, with a 70.4% variance from sub-hourly to hourly rainfalls. P2 had a peak wavelet variance around 30 min–1 h, with rainfalls concentrated to the south of the convergent line. The rainfalls under P3 were locally distributed with a longer duration of around 1–4 h. Compared with the climate mean, hourly rainfall frequencies are indispensable to understanding the 2020 accumulated Meiyu rainfall anomaly. This research highlights the dominant role of synoptic patterns on the temporal and spatial features of the Meiyu rainfall. Full article

Sea surface salinity (SSS) is a crucial indicator that is used to monitor the hydrological cycle in the ocean system. In this study, we evaluated the simulation skill of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in reproducing the SSS in the Asian Marginal Seas (AMSs). The results show that the AMSs’ SSS simulated by most CMIP6 models is generally in good agreement with the observations in terms of spatial patterns and seasonal variability. However, these models tend to overestimate the SSS in the Eastern Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal by up to 1.3 psu, while they underestimate the SSS in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the Southern South China Sea, and the Indonesian Seas, with the bias exceeding −1.5 psu. Additionally, the seasonal variations in the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea exhibit large biases with phase shift or reversal in some CMIP6 models. Notably, the observed magnitudes in the AMSs are significantly higher than the global average of 0.2 psu, ranging from 0.22 to 1.19 psu. Furthermore, we calculated the projected trends in sea surface salinity under different future scenarios by using the CMIP6 models. The results reveal relatively larger SSS freshening trends in the second half of the 21st century compared to the first half. Specifically, the freshening trends for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) of low- (global radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m² by the year 2100), medium- (global radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m² by 2100), and high-end (8.5 W/m² by 2100) pathways are 0.05–0.21, 0.12–0.39, and 0.28–0.78 psu/century, respectively. The most rapid freshening trends of SSS are observed in the East China Seas and the Indonesian Seas, which are over two times greater than the global mean. On the other hand, the SSS freshening trends in the Arabian Sea are slightly lower than the global mean SSS freshening trend. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of extreme events, especially drought and wet events, spanning over the past years, evaluating their trends over time. An investigation of future projections under various scenarios such as SSP-126, SS-245, and SSP-585 for the near (2023–2048), mid (2049–2074), and far future (2075–2100) using the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparisons Project 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble method was also performed. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a simple yet incredibly sensitive tool for measuring changes in drought, is utilized in this study, providing a valuable assessment of drought conditions across multiple timescales. The historical analysis shows that there is a significant increase in drought frequency in subdivisions such as East MP, Chhattisgarh, East UP, East Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Rayalaseema over the past decades. Our findings from a meticulous examination of historical rainfall trends spanning from 1951 to 2022 show a noticeable decline in rainfall across various regions such as Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, and north-eastern states, with a concurrent increase in rainfall over areas such as Gujarat, adjoining regions of West MP and East Rajasthan, and South Interior Karnataka. The future projection portrays an unpredictable pattern of extreme events, including droughts and wet events, with indications that wet frequency is set to increase under extreme SSP scenarios, particularly over time, while highlighting the susceptibility of the northwest and south peninsula regions to a higher incidence of drought events in the near future. Analyzing the causes of the increase in drought frequency is crucial to mitigate its worst impacts, and recent experiences of drought consequences can help in effective planning and decision-making, requiring appropriate mitigation strategies in the vulnerable subdivisions. Full article

Tyre wear particle emissions have gained significant attention due to their harmful effects on the environment and human health. However, studies on tyre wear particles generated under chassis dynamometer conditions are still scarce. This study measures the instantaneous number concentrations and elemental species of tyre wear particles in different light-duty vehicle test cycles. The results show that the particle number (PN) concentrations of the US06 test cycle are much higher than those of the WLTC test cycle due to the larger and more frequent accelerations and decelerations in the former. High PN concentrations are observed during high driving speeds with rapid accelerations, while PN concentrations are much lower during low driving speed with rapid acceleration. Furthermore, tyre tread temperature is found to be related to the formation of tyre wear particles. The PN concentration in the second and third US06 test cycles are similar, indicating that once the tyre temperature exceeds the critical value, the tyres become heated to a steady state, and the PN concentrations will not be affected by the average temperature of the tyre. A low initial tyre temperature can produce high PN concentrations during the cold start phase of test cycles and prolong the time required for tyres to warm up. In addition, the particles contained a high mass fraction of Zn, which can serve as a tracer of tyre wear particles in non-exhaust particle tests of vehicles. Full article

Accelerating glacier shrinkage is one of the most consequential of global warming. Yet, projections for the region remain ambiguous because of the tremendous spatial heterogeneity, especially in the Qilian Mountains, where glacier melt runoff is a vital water resource for the arid downstream area. To better understand glacier changes in this region, this study took regional representative Qiyi Glacier as an example and applied an enhanced distributed surface mass balance (SMB) model to glimpse the SMB variation and possible impacts on melt runoff under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Further, we combined a modified volume-scaling method to update the glacier geometry gradually to enhance long-term reliability. When forced with observed daily temperature and precipitation, the reconstructed glacier SMB, from 1957 through 2013, agrees well with the in situ observations. The result indicates an abrupt change for SMB from positive to negative in 1992 and subsequent mass accelerated loss after 2000. The increased summer air temperature and the pattern of large-scale atmospheric circulation shifts might both cause these changes. Using projected climate forcing from as many as 31 coupled GCMs from the CMIP 5 ensemble, the Qiyi Glacier is projected to undergo sustained SMB loss throughout the 21st century for both RCPs. By 2100, the Qiyi Glacier will lose ~25 m water equivalent (w.e.) for RCP 4.5 and ~37 m w.e. for RCP 8.5. Whereas the glacier area will shrink by 43% for RCP 4.5 and 54% for RCP 8.5 relative to 2013 glacier content, corresponding to the volume of the Qiyi Glacier will lose by 54% for RCP 4.5 and by 65% for RCP 8.5, accordingly. Simultaneously, the glacier terminus will experience extreme melts. The terminus elevation of the Qiyi Glacier will retreat from 4310 m a.s.l. in 2013 to 4810 m a.s.l. (RCP 4.5) and 4838 m a.s.l. (RCP 8.5) by the end of 2100, which will exceed the multi-year average ELA (4749 m) from 1957 to 2013. If the warming trends keep and glaciers melt like the Qiyi Glacier with this ‘shocking’ rate, it will raise the possibility of crippling, long-term water shortages for Hexi corridors. Full article

We report the MMS observations of the intense spikes of field-aligned current (FAC) produced by magnetic reconnection at the plasma sheet (PS) field lines. The MMS was located tailward of a near-Earth X-line and the most intense spike of FAC with an electric current density of ∼70 nA/m² was observed near the magnetic separatrix. The FAC structures located deeper in the PS were strongly filamented and consisted of several spikes with a thickness of ∼(1–2)${\rho }_e$ (${\rho }_e$ is the gyroradius of thermal electrons). We found that the FAC in these structures was carried by unmagnetized thermal and suprathermal electron populations (≥ 1 keV), which were ∼(20–80)% of the entire electron population. Strong nonideal electric fields up to ∼100 mV/m were detected in the FAC spike near the magnetic separatrix. The generation of these fields was mainly due to the anomalous resistivity, possibly caused by the electrostatic fluctuations. As a result, a significant energy dissipation of up to 1.3 nW/m³ occurred within the electron-scale FAC structure, which caused an increase in the electron temperature by a factor of two compared with that outside the FAC. Thus, MMS observations demonstrate that during the interval of the active X-line, the outer part of the PS consists of multiple electron-scale FAC layers/filaments in which a significant energy exchange between electrons and fields occurs. To investigate the stability of these filaments and estimate their lifetime, additional observations and theoretical studies are needed. Full article

Sediment transport in coastal waters has an important impact on the siltation of port channels and changes in the estuary ecological environment. The southeast coast of China is often hit by typhoons, which can affect the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in coastal waters. In this study, we used Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) data to analyze SSC variations in Hangzhou Bay during Typhoon Maria (2018), and the influencing factors were also analyzed. The results showed that: (1) During the typhoon’s transit, the SSC in Hangzhou Bay (HZB) increased by 200–800 mg/L, which was one-fold higher than the day before the typhoon. The variation of SSC on the south bank was noticeable, and the typhoon effect on SSC lasted for 2–3 days; (2) The wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) increased during the typhoon. In general, in the early stage of the typhoon, the SSC in HZB was affected by the wind, and in the interim and late period, SSC was influenced by the effect of wind and wave height; (3) Typhoon “Maria” accelerated the transport of sediment and land-based pollutants from land to sea; the effect of residual current and wind stress are the driving mechanisms for seaward sediment transport. However, mechanisms and driving factors of sediment transport in coast water are complex and diverse. The results of this study can help to understand the processes of riverbed erosion and deposition in Hangzhou Bay and adjacent waters. They are also significant for the study of nearshore hydrodynamic characteristics of typhoons and channel engineering. Full article

We performed a sensitivity study on the life span of a numerically simulated storm using the parameterization of the ventilation coefficient. This is an expanded sequel to our previous study, where the ventilation effect of precipitation particles (snow, rain, and hail) was either halved or doubled as a whole. In this study, we tested the sensitivity of the ventilation coefficient for different precipitation particles and compared that with the previous results. In the present study, we changed the ventilation coefficient in two scenarios: (1) only the rain category was changed; (2) only the snow and hail categories were changed. The results show that these different scenarios lead to different evolution paths for the storm. In general, reducing the ventilation effect of rain leads to quick dissipation, whereas enhancing the ventilation of either rain or snow/hail leads to the development of multicellular storms. An analysis of the physical mechanisms leading to such results is provided. This study shows yet another example of how a change in a cloud’s microphysical parameterization can lead to a profound change in its larger-scale dynamical process. Full article

In this study, localised and non-uniform urban morphology (UM) and urban fraction (UF) parameters are implemented in a single-layer urban canopy scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effect of the refined parameterisation scheme on the simulation of dynamic and thermal fields in the urban canopy of the Guangzhou metropolitan area. The results showed that, compared with the default urban canopy parameters of the WRF model, using the localised UM parameters resulted in the most significant improvement in the 10 m wind speed simulation. In urban districts, the mean bias between the observed and simulated 10 m wind speed was reduced significantly by 59% from 2.63 m/s to 1.09 m/s during the daytime. For the thermal environment simulation during the daytime, higher UF and UM values resulted in lower surface albedos and generated narrower street canyons compared with the default modelling setting, which caused more heat to be trapped in the urban canopy and ultimately led to an increase in the surface skin temperature (TSK) and a largely increased ground heat flux (GRD). As a result, at night, more heat was transferred from the ground to the surface, producing a higher TSK. The effect of the localised UF on the sensible heat flux (HFX) was closely related to the near-surface temperature gradient. The UM caused the HFX to increase during the daytime, which was related to the near-surface heat exchange coefficient in the lower model layers. As the high-resolution UM significantly altered the urban geometry, the dynamic environment simulation resulted in a large increase in friction velocity and a decrease in wind speed. Full article

A measurement campaign was undertaken April–October 2021 using PM₁₀ filter samplers to collect 24 h samples downwind of the Oceano Dunes State Vehicular Recreation Area (ODSVRA), an area that allows off-highway driving on its coastal dunes. The PM₁₀ samples were analyzed and these data were used to identify the sources that contributed to the PM₁₀ under varying meteorological conditions. Exposed filters were weighed to calculate mass concentration and analyzed using X-ray fluorescence to quantify elemental composition, ion chromatography to quantify water-soluble ions, and thermal/optical reflectance to quantify organic carbon and elemental carbon in the particulate matter. These speciated data were used to attribute the sources of PM₁₀ for eight days that exceeded the California state 24 h mean PM₁₀ standard and 39 days that were below the standard. The mean attribution of sources for the eight identified exceedance days was mineral dust (43.1%), followed by sea salt (25.0%) and the unidentified category (20.4%). The simultaneous increase in the mineral dust and unidentified categories with increasing levels of PM₁₀ arriving from the direction of the ODSVRA suggests that the unidentified components were unmeasured oxides of minerals and carbonate. This increases the attribution of mineral dust for a mean exceedance day to 63.5%. The source of the mineral dust component of the PM₁₀ is attributable to wind-driven saltation and dust emission processes within the ODSVRA. Full article

Wind speed forecasting is advantageous in reducing wind-induced accidents or disasters and increasing the capture of wind power. Accordingly, this forecasting process has been a focus of research in the field of engineering. However, because wind speed is chaotic and random in nature, its forecasting inevitably includes errors. Consequently, specifying the appropriate method to obtain accurate forecasting results is difficult. The probabilistic forecasting method has considerable relevance to short-term wind speed forecasting because it provides both the predicted value and the error distribution. This study proposes a probabilistic forecasting method for short-term wind speeds based on the Gaussian mixture model and long short-term memory. The precision of the proposed method is evaluated by prediction intervals (i.e., prediction interval coverage probability, prediction interval normalized average width, and coverage width-based criterion) using 29 monitored wind speed datasets. The effects of wind speed characteristics on the forecasting precision of the proposed method were further studied. Results show that the proposed method is effective in obtaining the probability distribution of predicted wind speeds, and the forecast results are highly accurate. The forecasting precision of the proposed method is mainly influenced by the wind speed difference and standard deviation. Full article

The risk of COVID-19 infection from virulent aerosols is particularly high indoors. This is especially true for classrooms, which often do not have pre-installed ventilation and are occupied by a large number of students at the same time. It has been found that precautionary measures, such as the use of air purifiers (AP), physical distancing, and the wearing of masks, can reduce the risk of infection. To quantify the actual effect of precautions, it is not possible in experimental studies to expose subjects to virulent aerosols. Therefore, in this study, we develop a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to evaluate the impact of applying the aforementioned precautions in classrooms on reducing aerosol concentration and potential exposure in the presence of index or infected patients. A CFD-coupled Wells–Riley model is used to quantify the infection probability (IP) in the presence of index patients. Different cases are simulated by varying the occupancy of the room (half/full), the volumetric flow rate of the AP, two different locations of the AP, and the effect of wearing masks. The results suggest that using an AP reduces the spread of virulent aerosols and thereby reduces the risk of infection. However, the risk of the person sitting adjacent to the index patient is only marginally reduced and can be avoided with the half capacity of the class (physical distancing method) or by wearing face masks of high efficiencies. Full article