1. Introduction
Advancements in science and technology have led to incredibly durable and complex products such as silicone seals, computers, and LEDs. Reliability is a cornerstone of product quality, so manufacturers invest heavily in testing, design, and other efforts to ensure dependable performance. Ideally, this would involve a wealth of life-testing data. However, a challenge arises with highly reliable products, as their extended lifespans often mean that very few or even zero failures occur within a reasonable testing period under normal operating conditions. The traditional maximum likelihood (ML) method faces challenges in this scenario.
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is employed to expedite failure detection. ALT applies higher-than-usual stress conditions (such as temperature and voltage) to products to induce earlier failures and assess their reliability. These data are then analyzed to estimate a product’s lifespan under normal use. There are different ways to apply stress in ALT: Constant stress maintains a fixed level, step-stress increases it gradually in discrete stages, and progressive stress continuously increases it over time. For a more comprehensive understanding of these accelerated models, refer to Nelson’s [
1] study. Using ALT, manufacturers can gather critical failure data more quickly, even for highly reliable products. This approach improves product design, improves testing efficiency, and reduces costs. See
Figure 1 to view the difference between the possible types of ALT, where (
,
, and
) or (A, B, and C) are stress levels. Additionally, NOC (normal operating conditions) are highlighted to indicate baseline performance under standard conditions. For more information, see [
2].
Progressive-stress ALT adopts a different approach compared to constant and step-stress methods. Here, the stress level in each unit constantly increases over time. A specific example is a ramp stress test, where stress increases linearly. Various researchers have explored this approach, with studies focusing on different aspects. For instance, Yin and Sheng [
3] investigated finding the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) for an exponential progressive-stress model, while Bai and Cha [
4] explored optimal test designs and failure rate models under progressive stress conditions. AL-Hussaini et al. [
5] discussed one-sample Bayesian prediction intervals based on progressively type-II censored data from the half-logistic distribution under the progressive stress model.
Figure 1 discussed (1) constant stress levels (
), (2) step-stress (
), and (3) progressive-stress (A, B, C). Types of accelerated life testing, illustrating constant stress, step-stress, and progressive-stress methods with different stress levels. For more information see [
2].
In life testing, experiments often end before all units fail. These “censored data” help to reduce testing time and costs. Two common censoring methods are type-I and type-II censoring. Recently, progressive type-II censoring has gained popularity for analyzing data from highly reliable products. The process works as follows: Suppose n identical items are being tested. The experimenter predefines several failures (m, where m is less than n) that are expected to occur. The experimenter also predetermines how many surviving units to remove
at each failure point. These removal numbers add up to the total number of surviving units that the experimenter will keep at the end
. The test ends after the m
th failure, with any remaining units being withdrawn. For more information on progressive type-II censoring, refer to Balakrishnan and Aggarwala [
6] or Balakrishnan and Cramer [
7].
The research on progressive-stress ALT extends beyond basic models based on censored samples. Rong-hua and Heliang [
8] explored its application with the Weibull distribution and a tampered failure rate model. Other studies used progressive stress with various distribution models and statistical techniques. For instance, Abdel-Hamid and Al-Hussaini [
9] examined progressive stress combined with finite mixture distributions, progressive censoring, and Bayesian analysis for different underlying lifetime distributions. This research demonstrated the versatility of progressive-stress ALT and its potential for analyzing complex failure data. Abdel-Hamid and Al-Hussaini [
10] also studied inference for a progressive stress model based on Weibull distribution under progressive type-II censoring. Recently, studies have used progressive-stress ALT based on censoring schemes [
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16].
This research presents a novel methodology for testing the reliability of highly dependable products by integrating progressive-stress ALT with the Marshall–Olkin length-biased exponential (MOLBE) distribution under progressive type-II censoring. The MOLBE distribution offers greater flexibility in modeling hazard rates compared to other distributions, making it more accurate for analyzing censored data, especially for products with low failure rates. This study explores statistical estimation methods and optimal confidence interval analysis while providing simulation studies to assess the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
This study is structured to guide you through a new life testing approach for highly reliable products.
Section 2 describes the model and testing assumptions.
Section 3 and
Section 4 estimate the model’s parameters using both MLEs and a modern Bayesian approach with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
Section 5 constructs reliable confidence intervals for the parameters. Optimal censoring schemes for the progressive type-II censoring model are obtained in
Section 6. To demonstrate the method’s application,
Section 7 analyzes a real-world dataset.
Section 8 reinforces the approach’s effectiveness through simulations, and
Section 9 concludes this study by providing key takeaways.
2. Model Description and Test Assumption
In this section, an overview of the model under consideration is provided. Also, the ramp stress ALT model is constructed according to the assumptions outlined in the second subsection.
2.1. Marshall–Olkin Length-Biased Exponential Distribution
This study discusses a recently proposed lifetime distribution called the MOLBE distribution, which builds upon the length-biased exponential distribution and Marshall–Olkin family. It generalizes the concept of the length-biased exponential distribution. The mathematical details of this distribution are provided by ul Haq et al. [
17], including its cumulative distribution function (CDF), probability density function (PDF), and hazard rate function (HRF). These functions describe the probability of failure within a certain time, the likelihood of failure at a specific time, and the instantaneous risk of failure over time, respectively.
A recent study by ul Haq et al. [
17] explored the MOLBE distribution as a potential alternative to several existing models for analyzing lifetime data. These existing models included the standard exponential distribution and extensions of exponential, Marshall–Olkin extended exponential, moment exponential, and exponentiated moment exponential distributions. The implication is that MOLBE might offer advantages over these established models for accurately capturing the patterns observed in real-world lifetime data.
2.2. Progressive Stress ALT (PSALT) Structure and Assumptions
This subsection focuses on the underlying assumptions and the mathematical model for designing PSALT experiments. The following provides a breakdown of the key assumptions:
Lifetime Distribution: The lifetime of each object being tested is assumed to follow a MOLBE distribution with specific parameters . This distribution describes the probability of a unit failing at a certain time.
Progressive Stress Levels: The stress applied to the units increases gradually over time according to a predefined law. This law relates the stress level (denoted by ) at a specific stage (i) to the corresponding time (t). The time stages are ordered with increasing values, and each stage represents a specific stress level (which could be voltage, temperature, or another relevant factor).
Stress and Lifetime Relationship: The relationship between the applied stress
and the characteristic lifetime
of the units at each stress level follows an inverse power law. This law describes how the lifetime of the units is expected to decrease as the stress level increases as follows:
where
and
represent unidentified parameters; please refer to the experimental section regarding acceleration for further information on these methods (additional details on these acceleration techniques can be found in Chapter 2 of [
1]).
Typically, the lifespan of a unit follows a MOLBE distribution when operating under normal conditions. Additionally, the progressive stress, denoted as , increases linearly with time at a constant rate h, expressed as , where V is greater than zero; .
The k items tested are divided into groups for the testing procedure.
The effect of stress variation across different levels is modeled using a linear cumulative exposure model. For further elaboration, please refer to Nelson [
1].
Based on the assumption of the linear cumulative exposure model, a test unit’s CDF under progressive stress
can be expressed as
where
and
is the CDF of the MOLBE distribution under progressive stress
with the scale parameter
taken as 1. Therefore, the CDF, PDF, and HRF of the MOLBE distribution are based on PSALT as follows:
where
.
2.3. Progressive Type-II Censored
Various censoring schemes, including common type-I and type-II censoring, have been extensively discussed in the literature; see Kundu and Pradhan [
18]. Recently, progressive censoring schemes have gained attention for their efficient resource utilization. Progressive type-II censoring extends type-II censoring by placing
n units on a life test and observing only
m failures. When a failure occurs, a predetermined number of surviving units are randomly removed. This process continues until the
m-th failure, at which point all remaining units are removed. The censoring numbers
are before the experiment. The sample is denoted by
. For more information, see Balakrishnan and Aggarwala [
6]. The likelihood function for progressive type-II is as follows:
where
is a vector of parameters, and C is a fixed value and does not depend on
. For more information, see [
19,
20,
21,
22,
23,
24].
In some reliability studies, the number of patients dropping out is random. A progressive censoring scheme with random removals is needed, where each unit has the same removal probability
p. The number of units withdrawn at each failure follows a binomial distribution:
,
, and
. For more details, see Tse et al. [
25].
3. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Consider n to be the total number of units under test, and let represent the different stress levels applied during the test, with being the use stress. At each increasing stress level for , identical units are tested. The progressive type-II censoring scheme is conducted as follows:
At the time of the first failure , units are randomly withdrawn from the remaining surviving units. At the time of the second failure , units are randomly withdrawn from the remaining units. The test concludes at the time of the -th failure ; at this point, all remaining units are withdrawn. Evidently, complete samples and type-II censored samples are specific cases of this scheme. Using this notation, the observed progressively censored data under the progressive-stress are for .
This section discusses the MLEs of the parameters
, and
under progressive-stress
ALT when the data are progressive type-II censoring. The likelihood function of
can be expressed as follows:
The log-likelihood function can be written as
The log-likelihood equations for the parameters
,
, and
are, respectively, given by
where
.
As the likelihood equations for , , and are nonlinear and challenging to solve analytically, numerical methods such as the Newton–Raphson method can be employed to find the MLEs of the distribution parameters , , and , denoted as , , and , respectively. In this study, the Newton–Raphson method was implemented using the maxlike function from the Maxlike library in R.
4. Bayesian Analysis
In this section, Bayesian analysis is explored using various prior and posterior distributions of the MOLBE distribution with PSALT based on the PTII censored sample.
4.1. Prior and Posterior Distribution
To carry out the Bayesian analysis, prior distributions for each unknown parameter need to be considered. To ensure that the Bayesian analysis is comparable with the likelihood-based analysis from
Section 4, we assume that the three parameters
,
, and
follow gamma prior distributions. Thus, the following is true:
Assuming that the parameters
, and
are independent, the joint prior PDF is given by
Together with the likelihood function in (
11), by using the Bayesian theorem, the joint posterior density of
, and
can be written as follows:
4.2. Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss Functions
This study investigates two distinct loss functions used in Bayesian estimation. The first one is the squared error loss function (SELF), which treats overestimation and underestimation equally, making it symmetric in nature when estimating parameters. The second option is the linear exponential loss function (LLF), which is asymmetric and assigns different weights to overestimation and underestimation.
The Bayes estimate of the function of parameters
based on SELF is expressed as follows:
The Bayes estimate under LLF of D is given by
where
is the shape parameter of the LLF.
It is important to highlight that the Bayes estimates of
D in Equations (
13) and (
14) are similar to a ratio of three multiple integrals, which cannot be simplified analytically. Therefore, it is advisable to use an approximation technique to compute these estimates, as outlined in the following subsection.
4.3. MCMC Method
In this context, the MCMC method is used to generate samples from the posterior distribution and subsequently calculate the Bayes estimates of
D under ramp stress ALT. The conditional posterior distributions of
,
, and
are obtained from the joint posterior density function given in Equation (
12) as follows:
Since the conditional posterior distributions of the parameters
, and
cannot be simplified into well-known distribution forms, we employ the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, as referenced in Upadhyay and Gupta [
26]. To calculate the Bayes estimates of
under SELF and LLF, the following procedure is used:
Set initial values for , , and , for instance, , , and .
Set .
Generate proposed values , , and , where represents the variance–covariance matrix.
Accept with a probability of .
Repeat steps (3) to (5) times to obtain samples for the parameters .
Calculate the Bayes estimates of
, and
under SELF and LLF using Equations (
13) and (
14) as follows:
where
, and
is also known as a burn-in sample.
5. Interval Estimation
In this section, we construct approximate confidence intervals (ACIs) using the asymptotic normality of MLEs, as well as BCI- and HPD-credible intervals for the parameters , , and .
5.1. Approximate CI
As closed-form solutions for the MLEs of the unknown parameters are not available, it is challenging to determine their exact distributions. Consequently, exact confidence intervals (CIs) for the parameters cannot be computed. Therefore, ACIs for , , and are developed using large sample approximations.
ACIs for
can be computed using the observed Fisher information matrix (FIM), leveraging the asymptotic normality properties of the MLEs. The observed information matrix, derived from the unknown parameters of the log-likelihood function, is used to estimate the asymptotic variance–covariance of the MLEs.
Next, the approximate asymptotic variance–covariance matrix is established as
The MLEs of parameters approximately follow the multivariate normal distribution with mean
and variance–covariance matrix
, namely
. Therefore, for arbitrary
, the
ACIs of the unknown parameters can be expressed as follows:
where
is the
quantile of the standard normal distribution
.
5.2. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals
The bootstrap is a resampling technique used for statistical inference. It is the likelihood applied in the estimation of CIs; see Efron [
27] for more details. In this section, we construct confidence intervals for the unknown parameters
and
using the parametric bootstrap approach. Specifically, we consider the percentile bootstrap (PB) and bootstrap-t (BT) methods for constructing confidence intervals. For further details on the bootstrap technique, refer to [
28,
29,
30,
31].
5.2.1. Percentile Bootstrap CI
Compute the MLEs of ALT for parameters of TCPE distribution;
Generate bootstrap samples using , and to obtain the bootstrap estimate of say , say , and say using the bootstrap sample;
Repeat step (2) times to obtain and ;
Arrange and in ascending order as , and ;
Two-sided BP confidence interval for the unknown parameters , where and are given by and .
5.2.2. Bootstrap-T CI
For Bootstrap-T CI, follow these steps:
Same as steps (1, 2) in BP;
Compute the t-statistic of
as
where
is the asymptotic variance of
, and it can be obtained using the FIM;
Repeat steps 2–3 times and obtain ;
Arrange in ascending order as ;
A two-sided
BP confidence interval for the unknown parameters
,
, and
is given by:
5.3. Highest Posterior Density (HPD) Credible Interval
To compute the Bayesian HPD credible CIs (CCIs) of any function of
, set the credible level to
and apply the MCMC method described in
Section 4.3 based on its point estimation. The following are the specific steps:
To obtain
groups of samples, repeat Steps (1)–(6) of the MCMC method sampling in
Section 5.3;
The samples from the aforementioned groups are sorted in turn to produce , where ;
The HPD credible interval of is , where satisfies the equation , for .
The benefit of the Bayesian credible interval over the classical confidence interval is that it does not require creating a pivot in advance.
6. Optimal Censoring Plan
The ideal method for gathering data through censoring has been extensively studied recently by Burkschat [
32] and Pradhan and Kundu [
26]. Progressive-stress ALT based on progressive type-II censoring involves removing items at specific points during an experiment, allowing for various combinations
of removal times based on the predetermined number of total items
and observed failures
.
Before selecting a particular sampling plan, it is crucial to determine which progressive censoring method yields the most informative data about the unknown parameters that we aim to estimate. This involves two main challenges:
To address these challenges for MOLBE under progressive-stress ALT based on progressive type-II censoring samples with various schemes via binomial removal, this study establishes a set of optimality criteria, as outlined in
Table 1. The table also includes several popular information measures that can help to identify the best progressive-stress ALT based on progressive type-II censoring for a given experiment.
The three optimality criteria (, and ) defined to identify the most informative progressive-stress ALT are based on a progressive type-II censoring scheme for estimating multiple unknown parameters.
: This criterion maximizes the observed FIM, represented as . FIM quantifies the amount of information an experiment provides about the parameters estimated. In this context, a higher value signifies more informative data.
and : These criteria both aim to reduce the uncertainty in the estimates. They do so by minimizing the determinant and the trace (sum of the diagonal elements) of the inverse of the FIM . Lower values indicate less uncertainty.
7. An Application
In this section, a real-world dataset from Nelson [
1] is presented to demonstrate the practical application of MLEs and Bayesian estimation methods. The data are shown as follows:
Failure data with 30 kilovolts (kv): 7.74, 17.05, 20.46, 21.02, 22.66, 43.40, 47.30, 139.07, 144.12, 175.88, and 194.90. Failure data with 32 kv: 0.27, 0.40, 0.69, 0.79, 2.75, 3.91, 9.88, 13.95, 15.93, 27.80, 53.24, 82.85, 89.29, 100.58, and 215.10. Failure data with 34 kv: 0.19, 0.78, 0.96, 1.31, 2.78, 3.16, 4.15, 4.67, 4.85, 6.50, 7.35, 8.01, 8.27, 12.06, 31.75, 32.52, 33.91, 36.71, and 72.89. Failure data with 36 kv: 0.35, 0.59, 0.96, 0.99, 1.69, 1.97, 2.07, 2.58, 2.71, 2.9, 3.67, 3.99, 5.35, 13.77, and 25.50.
This section analyzes the breakdown time of insulating oil under different stress levels (30 kv, 32 kv, 34 kv, and 36 kv). The data at 30 kv are considered the “normal stress” case. Before diving deeper, the researchers check if the chosen MOLBE distribution accurately reflects the breakdown time data at each stress level. To achieve this, we use standard error (SE), AIC, BIC, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test statistic (KSD), and its corresponding p-value (PVKS) for each stress level. The K-S test and its p-value help us to assess how well the MOLBE distribution fits the observed data patterns.
The results in
Table 2 indicate a good fit between the MOLBE distribution and the data for each stress level. This is because the
p-values from the K-S test (included in
Table 2) are greater than 0.05, which suggests a high probability that the data come from the MOLBE distribution.
Figure 2 visually confirms this by plotting the TTT, estimated HF, and empirical CDFs of the data alongside the theoretical CDF, histogram of the data, and the theoretical PDF, QQ, and PP plots of the MOLBE distribution for each stress level. The close alignment between the data and the theoretical function plots of
Figure 2 reinforces the conclusion that the MOLBE distribution is a suitable model for these data.
Figure 2 showcases various statistical plots of oil breakdown datasets for the MOLBE distribution, with each row representing a different dataset or parameter setting. The columns feature distinct types of plots to assess the distribution’s fit to the data. The first column displays TTT (total time on test) plots, which reveal failure patterns. Concave shapes indicate early failures, while convex shapes suggest wear-out failures. The second column presents the estimated hazard rate, reflecting how the failure rate changes over time, with fluctuating trends indicating a non-constant hazard function. The third column compares the empirical CDF with the fitted distribution to demonstrate how well the model matches the observed data.
Further, the fourth column features the estimated PDF, displaying the distribution of failure times with a histogram for empirical data and a red curve for the fitted distribution. The fifth column includes a QQ plot, assessing the goodness of fit by comparing theoretical and empirical quantiles. Any deviations from the straight line suggest discrepancies in the model. Lastly, the PP plot in the final column evaluates how well the empirical distribution matches the theoretical one, with points on the diagonal indicating a good fit. Together, these plots provide valuable insights into the MOLBE distribution’s suitability for modeling oil breakdown data, highlighting areas where the model aligns with or deviates from empirical data.
This study utilizes a real-world dataset to demonstrate a specific life testing approach. The data are subjected to progressive-stress ALT combined with progressive type-II censoring that removes units based on a binomial probability.
Table 3 presents the results of applying this testing method under two scenarios:
Essentially, the table showcases the outcomes of the life-testing approach under different probabilities for removing units during the testing process.
We analyze the data that used progressive-stress testing with progressive type-II censoring. For each test, we calculate the MLEs and Bayesian estimates of the parameters
and
. These estimates are presented in
Table 4. Additionally,
Table 4 presents 95% confidence intervals (CIs) along with the lengths of these intervals. For the MLEs, the length is represented as ACIs (LACI), while for the Bayesian method, the length is represented as CCIs (LCCI). To check that the MLE values have maximum points of likelihood, the likelihood profile is depicted in
Figure 3 for the parameter in the first case. Based on this figure (
Figure 3), the values of MLEs have a maximum point and uniqueness solution. Additionally, MCMC plots are shown in
Figure 4 to determine the convergence and normality of the outputs of the MH algorithm via MCMC for Bayesian estimation and each stress level.
8. Simulation Study
This section compares the performance of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods through simulations. The simulations involve various scenarios using progressive-stress ALT based on progressive type-II censoring schemes with random removal. To achieve this, the analysis leverages the R 4.3.0 software package for extensive calculations. The simulations generate data samples under progressive-stress ALT based on progressive type-II censoring schemes with random removal configurations by specifying the values of models. The specific steps involved in defining these parameter values are detailed later in the study.
The parameter values in this simulation are as follows:
Case 1 is (), Case 2 is (),
Case 3 is (), Case 4 is (), and
Case 5 is ().
The sample sizes for each stress level are defined as follows: , , and ; the censored samples and relative censoring size are determined to be 0.75 and 0.9 for each stress level, and (they must be whole numbers and not fractions). The process used is as follows:
Four samples from a uniform distribution with a range of are generated.
MOLBE samples are generated using the inverse of the CDF. However, this inverse does not have a closed mathematical form. Therefore, the ’uniroot’ function in R, which is a root-finding method rather than an iterative algorithm, is used to obtain the required values. As a result, four samples following the MOLBE distribution are generated.
In addition, the probability of binomial removal p is considered to be and for each stress level l, .
The algorithm technique of a progressive-stress ALT based on progressive type-II censoring has produced a MOLBE distribution with a size of , a censoring size of , and ratios of time stages of stress of 100%, 71.43%, 55.55%, and 41.47%, respectively, for each stress level.
This subsection evaluates the accuracy of different parameter estimates through simulations. The analysis compares two approaches:
MLEs: This method provides point estimates for the model parameters (, and ). The researchers calculate the mean squared error (MSE) and estimated bias of these MLEs to evaluate their accuracy.
Bayesian Estimation: This method incorporates prior information about the parameters. Here, the researchers use a gamma prior distribution with different settings (SELF, LLF with = −0.5, and LLF with = 0.5) to estimate the parameters.
The simulations involve 5000 runs and analyze various aspects of the point estimates:
We estimate bias for MLEs and the Bayesian estimates of and ;
We calculate the MSE for MLEs and the Bayesian estimates;
We determine the optimality measures via FIM for MLEs to determine the best schemes that have a minimum or maximum value of binomial removal.
For interval estimates, the following definitions are used:
Length of CIs: This refers to the width of the interval capturing the true parameter value with a certain confidence level (e.g., 95%). The analysis compares three types of CIs, ACIs, Bootstrap-P CIs, and Bootstrap-T CIs for each parameter.
Coverage Probability (CP): This represents the proportion of times the constructed CIs contain the true parameter value when repeated sampling is conducted. For example, a 95% CI should ideally contain the true parameter 95% of the time.
Bayesian Credible Ranges: Similar to CIs, these represent the range of likely values for the parameters based on the Bayesian approach.
Interestingly, to set up the Bayesian estimation effectively, the researchers leverage the MLEs results. They use the MLEs estimate and its variance–covariance matrix to determine suitable values for the hyper-parameters of the gamma prior distribution.
Since exact formulas are unavailable for the best MLEs, a numerical optimization method, BFGS (Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno), implemented in the R 4.3.0 package ‘MaxLik’. This package calculates the MLEs for each parameter based on the data. For Bayesian estimates, the researchers ran simulations with (12,000 samples) using MCMC and discarded initial adjustments (burn-in) by removing the first 2000 iterations. Finally, the researchers used R’s “coda” tools to obtain the most likely Bayesian values and their credible ranges (HPD intervals) for the same parameters.
Generally, the error in both MLEs and Bayesian estimates decreases as the dataset size increases, (except for some variations). This is likely because using more data provides a clearer picture of the underlying relationships.
In most cases, Bayesian estimates outperform MLEs in terms of accuracy (measured by MSE). This suggests that incorporating prior information about the parameters can be beneficial.
Among the Bayesian approaches, estimates obtained using the LINEX loss function with c = 2 yield the most accurate results (lowest MSE) for the parameters.
The width of both approximate and Bayesian confidence intervals generally shrinks as the data size increases (with some exceptions due to data variation). This indicates a more precise range for the true parameter values.
Compared to approximate confidence intervals, Bayesian credible intervals tend to more accurately capture the true parameter values within the specified confidence level.
Bootstrap techniques tend to be more accurate in terms of capturing the true parameter values within the specified confidence level.
The Bayesian credible intervals have a higher probability of covering the true parameter values compared to approximate confidence intervals. This reinforces the potential advantages of the Bayesian approach for reliable parameter estimation.
Table 15 uses optimality measures to determine the best parameter of binomial removal for this scheme.
9. Summary and Conclusions
This study addressed point and interval estimations for item lifetimes under use conditions following the MOLBE distribution within a progressive-stress ALT framework, utilizing progressive type-II censoring. We employed MLEs and Bayesian methods (under LINEX and SE loss functions) for parameter estimation based on progressive type-II censoring with binomial removal. For the CIs estimated, asymptotic and credible intervals were both obtained. The MCMC technique was used to derive Bayesian estimates of the model parameters. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates and to compare the CI outputs. Two techniques of bootstrap CI were obtained. Additionally, we examined the three distinct optimum test methods for the suggested model using various optimal criteria. A real dataset was analyzed to test the efficiency of the proposed estimation methods. The results indicate that the MOLBE distribution effectively fits the data and that the estimation methods perform well under progressive-stress ALT with progressive type-II censoring. We recommend using the Bayes estimation technique under the LLF loss function with c values close to 0.5 for estimating the model parameters.
In many different sectors, accelerated life testing has been used to rapidly collect failure time data for test units in a significantly shorter period than testing under typical operating circumstances. A ramp stress ALT under type-II UPHC is taken into consideration in this article when the lifetime of test units follows a truncated Cauchy power exponential distribution. The scale parameter of the distribution follows the inverse power law, and the cumulative exposure model accounts for the effect of fluctuating stress. Using type-II UPHC, the maximum likelihood estimates are compared with the Bayesian estimates of the unknown parameters based on symmetric and asymmetric loss functions via MCMC. We also provide some interval estimators of the unknown parameters, including asymptotic intervals, bootstrap intervals, and highest posterior density intervals. Simulations are used to compare the accuracy of the maximum likelihood estimates with the Bayesian estimates, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed confidence intervals for various parameter values and sample sizes. Finally, analysis of real data was examined.