Figure 1.
(a) A location map of Lesvos Island, Greece, and Petra–Molyvos beach, (b) the coastal area, referred to as the “Vulnerability area”, where the vulnerability assessment was conducted (including topographic details), along with the main streams interacting with the coast, the mouths of the most significant streams such as Molyvos, Petra, and Anaxos rivers, and the boundaries of the Petra hydrological basin, which was included in the study analysis, and (c) topographic and hydrological details of the Petra basin, together with the area referred to as the “Flood Assessment Area”, where flood risk assessment was performed.
Figure 1.
(a) A location map of Lesvos Island, Greece, and Petra–Molyvos beach, (b) the coastal area, referred to as the “Vulnerability area”, where the vulnerability assessment was conducted (including topographic details), along with the main streams interacting with the coast, the mouths of the most significant streams such as Molyvos, Petra, and Anaxos rivers, and the boundaries of the Petra hydrological basin, which was included in the study analysis, and (c) topographic and hydrological details of the Petra basin, together with the area referred to as the “Flood Assessment Area”, where flood risk assessment was performed.
Figure 2.
(a) The geomorphology of the coast under study, along with the geological formations identified in the region, and (b) the types of land use observed throughout the broader area, referring to the year 2018 (112—discontinuous urban fabric, 131—mineral extraction sites, 142—sport and leisure facilities, 211—non-irrigated arable land, 223—olive groves, 231—pastures, 242—composite culture systems, 243—land principally occupied by agriculture, 312—coniferous forest, 321—natural grassland, 323—sclerophyllous vegetation, 324—transitional woodland/shrub, 523—sea and ocean).
Figure 2.
(a) The geomorphology of the coast under study, along with the geological formations identified in the region, and (b) the types of land use observed throughout the broader area, referring to the year 2018 (112—discontinuous urban fabric, 131—mineral extraction sites, 142—sport and leisure facilities, 211—non-irrigated arable land, 223—olive groves, 231—pastures, 242—composite culture systems, 243—land principally occupied by agriculture, 312—coniferous forest, 321—natural grassland, 323—sclerophyllous vegetation, 324—transitional woodland/shrub, 523—sea and ocean).
Figure 3.
(a) The geological background of the Petra basin, and (b) the types of land use within the Petra basin, referring to the year 2018 (112—discontinuous urban fabric, 131—mineral extraction sites, 211—non-irrigated arable land, 223—olive groves, 242—composite culture systems, 243—land principally occupied by agriculture, 311—broad-leaved forest, 312—coniferous forest, 324—transitional woodland/shrub).
Figure 3.
(a) The geological background of the Petra basin, and (b) the types of land use within the Petra basin, referring to the year 2018 (112—discontinuous urban fabric, 131—mineral extraction sites, 211—non-irrigated arable land, 223—olive groves, 242—composite culture systems, 243—land principally occupied by agriculture, 311—broad-leaved forest, 312—coniferous forest, 324—transitional woodland/shrub).
Figure 4.
Graphical representation of the methodological framework developed in the present study to investigate the interconnection among coastal vulnerability, sediment transport, and river flood risk.
Figure 4.
Graphical representation of the methodological framework developed in the present study to investigate the interconnection among coastal vulnerability, sediment transport, and river flood risk.
Figure 5.
A Windrose depicting the primary wind directions in Petra–Molyvos and used to estimate wind exposure in the study area, during the period from 2017 to 2022.
Figure 5.
A Windrose depicting the primary wind directions in Petra–Molyvos and used to estimate wind exposure in the study area, during the period from 2017 to 2022.
Figure 6.
Map depiction of USLE factors for the Petra basin: (a) K-factor, (b) LS-factor, (c) C-factor, and (d) P-factor.
Figure 6.
Map depiction of USLE factors for the Petra basin: (a) K-factor, (b) LS-factor, (c) C-factor, and (d) P-factor.
Figure 7.
The seven sub-basins and the three junctions (J1–J3) of the study area, along with the main tributaries (SB1–SB7), the “Flood Assessment Area” and the nine cross-sections located in its interior and considered in the hydraulic simulations.
Figure 7.
The seven sub-basins and the three junctions (J1–J3) of the study area, along with the main tributaries (SB1–SB7), the “Flood Assessment Area” and the nine cross-sections located in its interior and considered in the hydraulic simulations.
Figure 8.
(a) The ranking evaluation of the first three parameters, i.e., Relief, Surge Potential, and Wind, of the coastal exposure index, (b) the ranking evaluation of the remaining parameters, i.e., Geomorphology, Habitats, Wave, alongside the Coastal Vulnerability estimated by the INVEST model considering all six parameters, and (c) Coastal Vulnerability also considering Sea Level Rise over a 10-year return period for the projected scenario RCP 8.5, compared to the previously estimated baseline scenario.
Figure 8.
(a) The ranking evaluation of the first three parameters, i.e., Relief, Surge Potential, and Wind, of the coastal exposure index, (b) the ranking evaluation of the remaining parameters, i.e., Geomorphology, Habitats, Wave, alongside the Coastal Vulnerability estimated by the INVEST model considering all six parameters, and (c) Coastal Vulnerability also considering Sea Level Rise over a 10-year return period for the projected scenario RCP 8.5, compared to the previously estimated baseline scenario.
Figure 9.
Soil loss distribution for the Petra basin (the areal percentage of each soil erosion class is given in parentheses).
Figure 9.
Soil loss distribution for the Petra basin (the areal percentage of each soil erosion class is given in parentheses).
Figure 10.
Integrative water surface profile along the examined reach within the “Flood Assessment Area”, together with the plan view of water surface elevation at cross-sections XS-2, XS-7, and XS-8, for the three different flow profiles (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Figure 10.
Integrative water surface profile along the examined reach within the “Flood Assessment Area”, together with the plan view of water surface elevation at cross-sections XS-2, XS-7, and XS-8, for the three different flow profiles (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Figure 11.
Flood inundation maps for the three different recurrence intervals (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Figure 11.
Flood inundation maps for the three different recurrence intervals (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Figure 12.
Inundated areas in each type of land use (112—discontinuous urban fabric, 242—composite culture systems) for the three different recurrence intervals (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Figure 12.
Inundated areas in each type of land use (112—discontinuous urban fabric, 242—composite culture systems) for the three different recurrence intervals (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Figure 13.
Impact of natural and human factors on the coast–watershed system in the area of interest: (a) coastline morphology adjacent to the Petra river’s mouth in 2003 (Google Earth Image), (b) coastline morphology adjacent to the Petra river’s mouth both in 2003 and 2024 (Google Earth Image), clearly illustrating beach retreat over these years, (c) human interventions (i.e., bridge, channelization) in the riverbed, and (d) human interventions in the river’s mouth (Petra beach).
Figure 13.
Impact of natural and human factors on the coast–watershed system in the area of interest: (a) coastline morphology adjacent to the Petra river’s mouth in 2003 (Google Earth Image), (b) coastline morphology adjacent to the Petra river’s mouth both in 2003 and 2024 (Google Earth Image), clearly illustrating beach retreat over these years, (c) human interventions (i.e., bridge, channelization) in the riverbed, and (d) human interventions in the river’s mouth (Petra beach).
Table 1.
The complete set of data gathered within the present study, including a brief description, their source, and the specific processes for which the various data are needed.
Table 1.
The complete set of data gathered within the present study, including a brief description, their source, and the specific processes for which the various data are needed.
Data | Description | Process * | Source |
---|
Bathymetry | Raster file of the area of interest with a pixel size of 100 m × 100 m. | CV | European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) (europa.eu) |
Relief | This parameter is defined as the average surface elevation—DEM raster file with a 27 m resolution. | CV, HC, HS, SY | Copernicus Land Monitoring Service |
Surge Potential | The distance from the shore to the edge of the continental shelf, protected by a significant land mass—polylines created in QGIS 3.16.13. | CV | Shoreline/Coastline Databases|NCEI (noaa.gov) |
Natural Habitats | Seagrass data exported from MARISCA project and converted into polylines in QGIS 3.16.13. | CV | Seagrass data by [42] |
Geomorphology | Classification of physical characteristics including descriptions and ranks—polylines created in QGIS 3.16.13. | CV | European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) (europa.eu) |
Climatic Forces | Wind–wave exposure model in MATLAB R2022b—hourly data at a height of 10 m (January 2017–December 2022). | CV | Meteoblue Monioudi, and Velegrakis [43] |
Sea Level Rise | ESLs are considered the sum of the mean sea level, the astronomical tide, and the episodic coastal water level rise due to storm surges and wave setups (present and future scenarios—RCPS 4.5 and RCPs 8.5). | CV | Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard|Nature Communications [44] |
Landmass | Outline of the coastal region—modified polygon in QGIS 3.16.13. | CV | DIVA-GIS |
Land Use | Modified polygon in QGIS 3.16.13 (CLC Version 2018). | CV, HC, HS, SY | Copernicus Land Monitoring Service |
Precipitation | Statistical analysis of daily rainfall data (July 2009–October 2022). | SY, HC | Meteo.gr |
Geology | Modified polygon in ArcGIS 10.2.2. | CV, SY, HC | University of the Aegean—Department of Geography Cartography & Geoinformatics Laboratory |
Work Field | Use of the Topcon Hiper VR GNSS receiver for the collection of surface elevation data. (TopCon Way, State of California, CA, USA) | HS | University of the Aegean—Department of Marine Sciences Coastal Morphodynamics & Management & Marine Geology |
Satellite Images | Use of historical data from the years 2003 and 2024 to examine changes in the evolution of both the coastal zone and the river mouth. | CWC | Google Earth |
Table 2.
Bio-geophysical parameters and their respective classification ranges at each shoreline point.
Table 2.
Bio-geophysical parameters and their respective classification ranges at each shoreline point.
Variables/Rank | Very Low | Low | Moderate | High | Very High |
---|
Geomorphology | Rocky, high cliffs, seawalls | Medium cliff, bulkheads, small seawalls | Low cliff, alluvial plain, rip-rap | Cobble beach, lagoon, bluff | Barrier beach, sandy beach, mudflat |
Natural Habitats | Coral reef, mangrove, high saltmarsh | High dune, low marsh | Low dune, scrubland | Seagrass, kelp | No habitats |
Relief, Wind and Wave Exposure, Surge Potential | 0 to 20% | 21 to 40% | 41 to 60% | 61 to 80% | 81 to 100% |
Seal Level Rise | 0–1.0 m | 1.1–1.30 m | 1.31–1.60 m | 1.61–1.90 m | >1.91 m |
Table 3.
Ranges of extreme sea level rise (ESLs) for the three return periods (10, 50, and 100 years) and their components correspond to the wave conditions along the Petra–Molyvos coastline for different dates and under the climate scenarios.
Table 3.
Ranges of extreme sea level rise (ESLs) for the three return periods (10, 50, and 100 years) and their components correspond to the wave conditions along the Petra–Molyvos coastline for different dates and under the climate scenarios.
| Tr | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 |
---|
2000 | 2050 | 2100 | 2050 | 2100 |
---|
RSLR (m) | - | 0 | 0.19 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.76 |
ηTide (m) | - | 0.12–0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12–0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12–0.13 |
ηCE (m) | 10 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.12 |
50 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.28 |
100 | 1.42 | 1.4 | 1.39 | 1.4 | 1.34 |
ESL (m) | 10 | 1.31–1.32 | 1.48–1.49 | 1.80–1.81 | 1.51–1.52 | 2.01 |
50 | 1.48 | 1.65–1.66 | 1.96–1.97 | 1.68–1.69 | 2.16–2.17 |
100 | 1.54–1.55 | 1.72 | 2.03–2.04 | 1.74–175 | 2.22–2.23 |
Table 4.
K-factor values according to the geological formations within the Petra basin.
Table 4.
K-factor values according to the geological formations within the Petra basin.
ID | Geological Formations | K |
---|
Q.al | Alluvial plains (clay, sand, gravel, fluvial deposits) | 0.030 |
Ng.d | Dyke | 0.020 |
Ng.ul | Upper lava unit | 0.022 |
Ng.II2 | Lower lava unit | 0.020 |
Ng.ul1 | Lowermost parts of the upper lava unit | 0.022 |
Table 5.
C- and P-factor values for each land use type within the Petra basin.
Table 5.
C- and P-factor values for each land use type within the Petra basin.
CLC Code | Land Cover | C | P |
---|
112 | Discontinuous urban fabric | 0.001 | 1.00 |
131 | Mineral extraction sites | 0.050 | 1.00 |
211 | Non-irrigated—arable land | 0.300 | 0.70 |
223 | Olive groves | 0.100 | 0.50 |
242 | Composite culture systems | 0.180 | 0.50 |
243 | Land principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of natural vegetation | 0.070 | 0.70 |
311 | Broad-leaved forest | 0.001 | 1.00 |
312 | Coniferous forest | 0.001 | 1.00 |
324 | Transitional woodland shrub | 0.020 | 1.00 |
Table 6.
The geomorphological features of all sub-basins, together with the respective concentration times calculated using Giandotti’s formula.
Table 6.
The geomorphological features of all sub-basins, together with the respective concentration times calculated using Giandotti’s formula.
Sub-Basin | Area (km2) | Mainstream Length (km) | Mean Sub. Elevation (m) | Outlet Elevation (m) | Mean Sub. Slope (%) | tc (hrs) |
---|
Sub 1 | 0.91 | 1.55 | 13.86 | 6.00 | 5.41% | 2.74 |
Sub 2 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 17.19 | 9.00 | 6.49% | 0.74 |
Sub 3 | 0.05 | 0.30 | 17.88 | 12.00 | 8.02% | 0.69 |
Sub 4 | 0.82 | 2.11 | 166.37 | 10.00 | 26.81% | 0.68 |
Sub 5 | 0.89 | 1.75 | 121.76 | 13.00 | 24.40% | 0.77 |
Sub 6 | 0.90 | 1.85 | 160.95 | 19.00 | 26.65% | 0.69 |
Sub 7 | 4.37 | 4.35 | 261.64 | 21.00 | 29.72% | 1.20 |
Table 7.
The values of the parameters included in the rational method, along with the peak discharge values for the three different time periods at Junction J3.
Table 7.
The values of the parameters included in the rational method, along with the peak discharge values for the three different time periods at Junction J3.
Junction | T (years) | tc (hrs) | i (mm h−1) | Area (km2) | C | Q (m3 s−1) |
---|
J3 | 5 | 2.63 | 21.46 | 7.14 | 0.58 | 24.6 |
50 | 35.38 | 0.69 | 48.7 |
100 | 40.19 | 0.72 | 57.7 |
Table 8.
Coastal Vulnerability Index estimation for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which present the identical CVI of each return period (10, 50, and 100 years).
Table 8.
Coastal Vulnerability Index estimation for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which present the identical CVI of each return period (10, 50, and 100 years).
Return Period | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 |
---|
Very Low | Low | Moderate | High | Very High | Very Low | Low | Moderate | High | Very High |
---|
Baseline T10 | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% |
2050 T10 | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% |
2100 T10 | 0.0% | 1% | 51% | 47% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1% | 46% | 52% | 0.6% |
Baseline T50 | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% |
2050 T50 | 0.0% | 1% | 51% | 47% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1% | 51% | 47% | 0.6% |
2100 T50 | 0.0% | 1% | 46% | 52% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1% | 46% | 52% | 0.6% |
Baseline T100 | 0.0% | 2% | 54% | 44% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2% | 56% | 44% | 0.0% |
2050 T100 | 0.0% | 1% | 51% | 47% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1% | 51% | 47% | 0.6% |
2100 T100 | 0.0% | 1% | 46% | 52% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1% | 46% | 52% | 0.6% |
Table 9.
Soil loss and sediment yield at Petra basin.
Table 9.
Soil loss and sediment yield at Petra basin.
| Parameters | Units | Values |
---|
Soil loss | Annual soil loss (per ha) | t ha−1 yr−1 | 9.83 |
Annual soil loss (per km2) | t km−1 yr−1 | 983 |
Catchment area | km2 | 8.0 |
Total annual soil loss | t yr−1 | 7860 |
Sediment yield | Reduction sediment yield factor (Vanoni) | - | 0.364 |
Annual sediment yield (per km2) | t km−1 yr−1 | 358 |
Total annual sediment yield | t yr−1 | 2860 |
Table 10.
Flood characteristics for the three different recurrence intervals (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
Table 10.
Flood characteristics for the three different recurrence intervals (5-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods).
T (years) | Q (m3 s−1) | Flood Inundation Area (km2) | Percentages of Inundated Areas | Max. Flood Depth (m) |
---|
Discontinuous Urban Fabric | Composite Culture Systems |
---|
5 | 24.6 | 0.031 | 4.5% | 95.5% | 1.33 |
50 | 48.7 | 0.069 | 12.4% | 87.6% | 2.17 |
100 | 57.7 | 0.079 | 16.3% | 83.7% | 2.27 |