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Article

Probabilistic Damage Stability for Passenger Ships—The p-Factor Illusion and Reality

1
Maritime Safety Research Centre (MSRC), Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Marine Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0LZ, UK
2
Bureau Veritas, Marine and Offshore, 92937 Paris, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(3), 348; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10030348
Submission received: 21 January 2022 / Revised: 24 February 2022 / Accepted: 25 February 2022 / Published: 1 March 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Ocean Engineering)

Abstract

The paper complements an earlier publication by the authors addressing the probability of survival in the IMO framework for damage stability assessment, the s-factor. The focus here is on the probability of occurrence of a certain damage scenario (breach), conditional on its dimensions and location (centre and port or starboard side), the p-factor. Pertinent assumptions and limitations are explained, following its evolution for specific application to passenger ships. Attempts to provide analytical descriptions of the damage breach distributions as tetrahedra shapes positioned along the ship length whilst accounting for changes in ship geometry, structural arrangements, and subdivision for consumption by the wider profession has led to misconceptions and misunderstandings of what exactly the p-factor is in the context of probabilistic damage stability calculations. This is evidenced by the fact that the same original damage breach distributions, derived in Project HARDER, based on largely cargo ships with the age spread over the last three decades of the previous century, are still being used today for all ship types, including modern passenger ships. Filling this gap, a new database for passenger ships developed in the EC-funded Project FLARE, is briefly presented, leading to new damage breach distributions specifically for passenger ships. It is believed that this paper will throw considerable light in enhancing understanding on the p-factor, which has been cluttered with unnecessary complexity from the outset.
Keywords: ship damage stability; probabilistic and direct methods; damage breach distributions; p-factor ship damage stability; probabilistic and direct methods; damage breach distributions; p-factor

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MDPI and ACS Style

Vassalos, D.; Mujeeb-Ahmed, M.P.; Paterson, D.; Mauro, F.; Conti, F. Probabilistic Damage Stability for Passenger Ships—The p-Factor Illusion and Reality. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10, 348. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10030348

AMA Style

Vassalos D, Mujeeb-Ahmed MP, Paterson D, Mauro F, Conti F. Probabilistic Damage Stability for Passenger Ships—The p-Factor Illusion and Reality. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2022; 10(3):348. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10030348

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vassalos, Dracos, M. P. Mujeeb-Ahmed, Donald Paterson, Francesco Mauro, and Fabien Conti. 2022. "Probabilistic Damage Stability for Passenger Ships—The p-Factor Illusion and Reality" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 3: 348. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10030348

APA Style

Vassalos, D., Mujeeb-Ahmed, M. P., Paterson, D., Mauro, F., & Conti, F. (2022). Probabilistic Damage Stability for Passenger Ships—The p-Factor Illusion and Reality. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 10(3), 348. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10030348

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