Presenting the Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting and Determining Permissible Land Use Changes Based on Drinking Water Quality Standards: A Case Study of Northern Iran
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Water Quality Data and Land Use Status
2.3. Data Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis
3.2. Regression Results
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis of Land Use Change and Water Quality
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Sub Catchments | Area (ha) |
---|---|
Rooteh | 15,579.7 |
Meygoon | 7124.4 |
Ahar | 9266.8 |
Central Latyan | 13,420.1 |
Total | 45,390.9 |
Sampling Stations | Time Intervals (Year) | pH | TDS (mg/L) | Na+ (mg/L) | Mg+ (mg/L) | Ca+ (mg/L) | SO42− (mg/L) | Cl− (mg/L) | NO3− (mg/L) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rooteh | 2005–2000 | 8.04 | 114.18 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 1.58 | 0.56 | 0.15 | 4.40 |
2010–2005 | 7.91 | 152.81 | 0.16 | 0.56 | 1.96 | 0.59 | 0.22 | 4.32 | |
2015–2010 | 8.19 | 147.52 | 0.23 | 0.67 | 1.79 | 0.62 | 0.22 | 4.32 | |
Meygoon | 2005–2000 | 7.80 | 317.93 | 1.25 | 1.71 | 2.28 | 1.46 | 0.72 | 4.00 |
2010–2005 | 7.85 | 383.97 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 3.35 | 1.97 | 1.16 | 4.60 | |
2015–2010 | 7.86 | 319.96 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 2.78 | 1.49 | 0.81 | 4.44 | |
Ahar | 2005–2000 | 7.78 | 3136.77 | 32.15 | 9.61 | 9.46 | 29.83 | 17.00 | 3.40 |
2010–2005 | 7.61 | 4912.89 | 45.34 | 15.28 | 9.93 | 35.73 | 27.44 | 3.60 | |
2015–2010 | 7.64 | 2172.50 | 17.88 | 6.63 | 7.73 | 16.37 | 10.16 | 4.44 | |
Central Latyan | 2005–2000 | 7.85 | 216.13 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 2.35 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 3.14 |
2010–2005 | 7.86 | 196.26 | 0.37 | 0.76 | 2.38 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 4.40 | |
2015–2010 | 8.07 | 206.46 | 0.56 | 0.83 | 2.35 | 0.89 | 0.46 | 5.10 | |
Jajrood Catchment | 2005–2000 | 7.87 | 953.75 | 8.52 | 3.23 | 3.92 | 8.16 | 4.58 | 3.74 |
2010–2005 | 7.81 | 1411.48 | 11.89 | 4.59 | 4.40 | 9.76 | 7.29 | 4.10 | |
2015–2010 | 7.94 | 711.61 | 4.96 | 2.44 | 3.66 | 4.84 | 2.91 | 4.58 |
Sub-Catchments | Land Use | Year | The Trend of Changes in | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 2010 | 2015 | Land Use Area (ha) | ||||||
Area (ha) | Area (%) | Area (ha) | Area (%) | Area (ha) | Area (%) | 2005–2010 | 2010–2015 | ||
Rooteh | Orchard | 471.8 | 3 | 513 | 3.3 | 479 | 3.1 | Increasing 41.2 | Decreasing 34.0 |
Irrigated Farming | 33.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0 | 70.7 | 0.5 | Decreasing 30.9 | Increasing 68.2 | |
Pastures | 15,048.9 | 96.6 | 15,000.1 | 96.3 | 14,854.4 | 95.3 | Decreasing 48.8 | Decreasing 145.7 | |
Residential Areas | 25.6 | 0.2 | 64.1 | 0.4 | 175.6 | 1.1 | Increasing 38.5 | Increasing 111.5 | |
Sum | 15,579.7 | 100 | 15,579.7 | 100 | 15,579.7 | 100 | - | - | |
Meygoon | Orchard | 1192.7 | 16.7 | 881.7 | 12.4 | 495.5 | 7 | Decreasing 311.0 | Decreasing 386.3 |
Irrigated Farming | 16.9 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 0 | Decreasing 11.9 | Decreasing 1.6 | |
Pastures | 5564.5 | 78.2 | 5567.6 | 78.1 | 5514.7 | 77.4 | Decreasing 3.0 | Decreasing 52.8 | |
Residential Areas | 350.3 | 4.9 | 670.1 | 9.4 | 1110.8 | 15.6 | Increasing 319.9 | Increasing 440.7 | |
Sum | 7124.4 | 100 | 7124.4 | 100 | 7124.4 | 100 | - | - | |
Ahar | Orchard | 463.4 | 5 | 574.2 | 6.2 | 781.4 | 8.4 | Increasing 110.8 | Increasing 207.2 |
Irrigated Farming | 0 | 0 | 157.3 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | Decreasing 157.3 | Decreasing 157.3 | |
Pastures | 8787.9 | 94.8 | 8522.4 | 92 | 8367.5 | 90.3 | Decreasing 265.5 | Decreasing 154.9 | |
Residential Areas | 15.4 | 0.2 | 12.9 | 0.1 | 117.9 | 1.3 | Decreasing 2.6 | Increasing 105.1 | |
Sum | 9266.8 | 100 | 9266.8 | 100 | 9266.8 | 100 | - | - | |
Central Latyan | Orchard | 1959.2 | 15 | 1350 | 10 | 1089 | 8 | Decreasing 609.3 | Decreasing 261.0 |
Irrigated Farming | 76.8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Decreasing 73.8 | Decreasing 2.0 | |
Pastures | 11,272.8 | 83 | 11,969.9 | 89 | 12,059.9 | 90 | Increasing 697.1 | Increasing 89.9 | |
Residential Areas | 111.3 | 1 | 97.2 | 1 | 270.2 | 2 | Decreasing 14.1 | Increasing 173.0 | |
Sum | 13,420.1 | 100 | 13,420.1 | 100 | 13,420.1 | 100 | - | - | |
Jajrood Catchment | Orchard | 4087.2 | 9 | 3318.9 | 7.3 | 2844.8 | 6.3 | Decreasing 768.3 | Decreasing 474.1 |
Irrigated Farming | 127 | 0.3 | 167.8 | 0.4 | 75.1 | 0.2 | Increasing 40.8 | Decreasing 92.7 | |
Pastures | 40,574.1 | 89.4 | 41,060 | 90.5 | 40,996.4 | 90.3 | Increasing 485.8 | Decreasing 63.6 | |
Residential Areas | 602.7 | 1.3 | 844.3 | 1.9 | 1474.6 | 3.2 | Increasing 241.6 | Increasing 630.3 | |
Sum | 45,390.9 | 100 | 45,390.9 | 100 | 45,390.9 | 100 | - | - |
Multivariate Regression Model | Independent Variables * | Dependent Variable | R2 | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
pH = −16.758 + 0.101 PA + 0.085 RA | PA, RA | pH | 0.884 | 0.012 |
TDS = −57,018.252 + 654.820 PA − 437.620 RA | PA, RA | TDS | 0.836 | 0.018 |
Cl− = −346.607 + 3.968 PA − 2.759 RA | PA, RA | Cl− | 0.812 | 0.023 |
SO42− = −277.802 + 3.246 PA − 3.285 RA | PA, RA | SO42− | 0.809 | 0.023 |
NO3−=−7.145 + 0.116 PA + 0.387 RA | PA, RA | NO3− | 0.766 | 0.035 |
Na+ = −314.598 + 3.627 PA − 2.950 RA | PA, RA | Na+ | 0.790 | 0.025 |
Mg+ = −171.392 + 1.973 PA − 1.350 RA | PA, RA | Mg+ | 0.774 | 0.033 |
Ca+ = −57.077 + 0.689 PA − 0.463 RA | PA, RA | Ca+ | 0.800 | 0.024 |
Permissible Area of Pasture (ha) | Permissible Area of Pasture (%) | Permissible Area of Residential Areas (ha) | Permissible Area of Residential Areas (%) | Water Quality Permissible Limit (mg/ L) | Multivariate Regression Model |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1471.3 | 9.92 | 79.5 | −10.34 | 6.5–9 | pH = −16.758 + 0.101 PA + 0.085 RA |
1074.8 | 7.25 | 86.92 | −11.3 | 1500 | TDS = −57,018.252 + 654.820 PA − 437.620 RA |
1213.5 | 8.19 | −11.23 | 1.46 | 400 | Cl− = −346.607 + 3.968 PA − 2.759 RA |
1691.7 | 11.41 | −34.22 | 4.45 | 400 | SO42− = −277.802 + 3.246 PA - 3.285 RA |
5412.2 | 36.51 | 34.2 | −4.45 | 50 | NO3− = −7.145 + 0.116 PA + 0.387 RA |
1341.2 | 9.05 | 73.85 | −9.6 | 200 | Na+ = −314.598 + 3.627 PA − 2.950 RA |
1111.1 | 7.49 | −516.1 | 67.11 | 30 | Mg+ = −171.392 + 1.973 PA - 1.350 RA |
1509.2 | 10.18 | −481.95 | 62.67 | 300 | Ca+ = −57.077 + 0.689 PA − 0.463 RA |
Water Quality Parameters | Values of Water Quality Parameters for Residential Areas Change (mg/L) | Values of Water Quality Parameters for Pastures Area Change (mg/L) |
---|---|---|
pH | 8.7 | 7.0 |
TDS | 3139.4 | 6408.5 |
Cl− | 21.4 | 37.4 |
SO42− | 22.5 | 34.8 |
NO3− | 8.0 | 3.1 |
Na+ | 22.5 | 35.0 |
Mg+ | 9.4 | 19.6 |
Ca+ | 0.4 | 9.7 |
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Allahdad, Z.; Malmasi, S.; Montazeralzohour, M.; Sadeghi, S.M.M.; Khabbazan, M.M. Presenting the Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting and Determining Permissible Land Use Changes Based on Drinking Water Quality Standards: A Case Study of Northern Iran. Resources 2022, 11, 103. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources11110103
Allahdad Z, Malmasi S, Montazeralzohour M, Sadeghi SMM, Khabbazan MM. Presenting the Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting and Determining Permissible Land Use Changes Based on Drinking Water Quality Standards: A Case Study of Northern Iran. Resources. 2022; 11(11):103. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources11110103
Chicago/Turabian StyleAllahdad, Zahra, Saeed Malmasi, Morvarid Montazeralzohour, Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi, and Mohammad M. Khabbazan. 2022. "Presenting the Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting and Determining Permissible Land Use Changes Based on Drinking Water Quality Standards: A Case Study of Northern Iran" Resources 11, no. 11: 103. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources11110103