5. Results and Discussion
Cost calculation of Scenario 0 (currently following PW treatment method,
Figure 3):
TC (0) per year = cost of drilling a disposal well and the continuous costs of operating it per barrel of water disposed (variable, depending on quantities of PW).
For the current situation where the PW is being disposed of entirely in the SK oilfield with no further use or treatment apart from gravity-based oil–water separation, which costs USD 0.08/barrel [
65], the calculation should be based on a disposal capacity of 1,000,000 barrels of PW per day, where details of the calculations are found in the
Supplementary Section A.
Given that the infrastructure is mostly available, it is important to consider the paid amounts as being of the current value, to properly compare the fixed and variable costs of all other scenarios.
Cost calculations of Scenario 1 (50 v% water injection of the treated PW for EOR and 50 v% disposal in a conventional Class II disposal well,
Figure 4):
To enhance the productivity of an oilfield with the use of water injection, a sequence or a pattern is required [
75].
Figure 5 (below) displays a seven-well injection pattern proposed for the water injection system to reuse treated PW in EOR techniques for the specified oilfield in South Kuwait. Such layouts have been implemented before, in different locations, and have proved to be successful in increasing the oil output in the producing wells [
76]. For each six oil-producing wells, an injection well is drilled to create a water drive and to increase the pressure in the reservoir, consequently increasing the pressure in the formation and leading to a higher flow of fluid within the formation pores to the production zones of the wells, resulting in a larger flow of production fluid to the surface.
Commercial disposal wells costs are typically between USD 0.50 and USD 2.50 per barrel of fluid [
77], whilst water injection costs range from USD 1 to USD 3 [
78]. In some regional cases in the GCC, for every 10 barrels of injected water, 1 barrel of oil has been recovered [
76].
The scenario 1 that was considered is designed to employ ceramic membrane technology, along with gravity separation prior to EOR water injection for 50 percent of the PW amounts generated, and the remaining 50 percent of PW is to be disposed of by using the current methods comprising traditional Class II disposal wells, as earlier in Scenario 0. Here, the PW that is disposed of in the wells is of higher purity than in scenario 0, due to gravity and ceramic membrane filtration, as in our previous studies the oil content was successfully reduced by 98.4% (from 306 mg/L to less than 5 mg/L oil) [
60]. The reason that not all PW is re-injected into the production zone is that there is a risk of blocking the formation and preventing the flow of oil from the porous rocks to the producing wells [
79]. Excessive water injection may disrupt the original stress equilibrium, resulting in a fault slip that would lead to a leakage in hydrocarbons [
61].
The cost of gravity separation and hydrocyclones is USD 0.509 per m
3 of PW or USD 0.08 per barrel of PW [
68]. The operational cost for ceramic membranes at a crossflow velocity of 2.0 m/s is USD 0.23/m
3, giving an overall total cost of USD 3.21/m
3 or USD 0.51 per barrel [
69]. Therefore, a total variable cost of 0.59 USD per barrel of PW for gravity separation and ceramic membrane treatment was incorporated into TC (1).
The second segment of TC (1) calculations, after PW treatment, is the utilization of PW quantities for EOR (water injection) and disposal with 500,000 barrels of treated PW to be reinjected for EOR purposes and 500,000 barrels to be disposed of by means of traditional disposal wells.
The capital expenditure to use ceramic membranes is USD 7,330,000 for every 55,100,000 barrels of PW treated per year (151,000 barrels per day) [
69]. Therefore, the total capital expenditure (CAPEX) or initial costs to build the ceramic membrane treatment facility is calculated to be USD 48,543,000. To be able to accommodate the increments in PW generated as stated in our prediction of a 3% annual volume increase of PW, the fixed costs were calculated for a 1,200,000-barrel capacity, to accommodate the increasing PW quantities over a 5-year period. Hence, the total cost rises to USD 58,143,600.
This gives us a lower range value of TC (1a) and an upper range value of TC (1b), where the difference in costs lies in the variable rates for water injection and disposal. Details of the calculations are found in the
Supplementary Section B.
On the revenue side, TR (1) is dependent on the oil production increase due to EOR processes, which again is dependent on the quantities of water reinjected into the production zone. For TR (1), it is proposed that for every 10 barrels of injected PW, 1 additional barrel of oil will be produced. This leads to the following calculation for TR (1), which is further explained in
Supplementary Section C:
In order to properly calculate the economic returns of the increased oil production, an adjusted 5-year average of OPEC oil prices has been used in the formula.
Finally, for scenario 1, returns for the first year are expected to range from USD 532,000,000 in added economic revenue to a loss of USD 198,000,000. These results reflect the initial capital costs of drilling injection and disposal wells, with the latter being without any economic return. In the second year, returns range from USD 710,000,000 in added revenue to a revenue loss of USD 20,000,000.
Cost calculations of Scenario 2 (PW use as a source of industrial salt and of purified water).
In scenario 2 (
Figure 6), ceramic membrane technology, gravity separation and adsorption filtration (with the use of biomass/activated carbon) are considered to treat the input PW from the SK oilfield. Thereafter, PW is treated with NaOH/CO
2 or with Na
2CO
3 to precipitate unwanted CaCO
3 and strontium carbonate (SrCO
3). The PW is directed towards a solar distillation pond to recover valuable salts from PW and usable water. In scenario 2-I, construction of a caustic soda/soda production plant is planned. To that end, part of the PW brine stream is directed to the caustic-soda production plant, while the remainder is funneled to the solar distillation unit. In scenario 2-II, caustic soda is acquired externally, and all PW is directed to the solar distillation unit.
For all scenarios 2-I, 2-II and 2-III, the fixed costs for a walnut-shell filtration system is USD 1,000,000 for a 43,000-barrel capacity facility [
35]. Therefore, the total cost for a 1,000,000-barrel capacity facility was calculated, along with the varying cost component of USD 0.3 per barrel of PW treated. Added to this are the costs of the ceramic membrane filtration and the gravity separation, discussed above. Below are shown are the calculated total costs for these operations, TC (2)-filtration, with the details of the calculations in the
Supplementary Section D.
Next, the costs for the precipitation of unwanted salts for the industrial-salt recovery process are calculated for scenarios 2-I (NaOH produced on-site by the electrolytic chloralkali process), 2-II (NaOH sourced externally), and 2-III (Na2CO3 sourced externally). In scenarios 2-I and 2-II, the needed carbon dioxide (CO2) is sourced externally. With respect to this, the chemical reactions (a)–(c) apply.
It could be observed that much of Ca and Sr present in PW from South Kuwaiti oil production processes can be precipitated as carbonates. Interestingly, most of the heavy metal content is also eliminated from the PW, most likely as metal hydroxides, metal carbonates and as mixed metal salts. The precipitation can be enacted by the addition of NaOH to PW that has been saturated with CO
2. Initially, the alkaline earth metals precipitate as hydroxides, which have higher water solubility than the corresponding carbonates, but which convert to the less-soluble carbonates over some time, to give overall reaction (a). A faster, but potentially more expensive, process is the addition of soda (sodium carbonate, Na
2CO
3), which leads to the immediate formation of the metal carbonates (reaction (b)). For the precipitation of Ca
2+ according to reaction (a), NaOH can either be sourced externally (2-II) or can be produced on-site by electrolysis of brine (aq. NaCl) according to reaction (c), producing chlorine at the anode and hydrogen at the cathode as side products of the reaction.
Added costs in the precipitation process by the addition of aq. HCl after the precipitation.
It must be noted that the treated PW has to be brought back to the pH value that it had prior to the precipitation of CaCO
3/SrCO
3. This needs to be carried out by the addition of aq. HCl, so that for every sodium ion added in the precipitation process, either through NaOH or Na
2CO
3, a chloride ion is added. In the case of having prepared NaOH on site by electrolysis of brine (scenario 2-I), the by-products chlorine and hydrogen can be utilized to prepare the necessary HCl in a plant on-site, according to reaction (d).
However, the facility costs of a production plant of hydrogen chloride including the set-up of the production facility and the running costs in the first five years of operation can be set at USD 735/ton HCl or USD 242/ton 33w% HCl.
In scenarios 2-II and 2-III, HCl has to be sourced externally at a cost of ca. USD 89/ton 33w% aq. HCl. To cover an addition of 3.561 tons NaOH, 9833 tons of 33w% HCl are needed at a price of USD 875,200 per day or USD 319,000,000 per year.
Revenue calculations for scenarios 2 (filtration) and scenarios 2-I–2-III (precipitation) [TR(2) and TR (2-I, 2-II and 2-III)].
Membrane filtration and adsorption filtration: One source of revenue in TR (2) is the reclaimed oil quantities from the ceramic membrane filtration/adsorption processes. The data are based on experiments carried out by the authors using a ceramic membrane filtration and biomass filtration using typical PW from the SK field, where the oil recovery rate during the ceramic membrane/PW adsorption processes in the studies was between 0.0935 percent (14.5 mL of oil for every 15,200 mL of PW) to 0.25 percent (38 mL of oil for every 15,200 mL of PW) [
78]. The quantity of recoverable barrels of PW per day for a generation rate of 1,000,000 barrels of PW is between 935 barrels and 2500 barrels per day, with an API of 16.02°.
The average crude oil from the reservoirs of the SK oil field has 16.05º API gravity and 5.42% sulfur content. It can be concluded from
Table 5 that crudes from SK oilfields are of relatively lower quality as compared to crudes from other Kuwaiti oilfields, such as from the Minagish oilfield.
Table 5 shows the classification into light, medium and heavy oil, depending on the API value. Against this background, our oil samples recovered from the filtration operations above showed 18.5° API gravity, a sulfur content of 4% and a pH of 7–8. With this, the recovered oil is of relatively high commercial value. It must be noted that the barrel price of crude oil sold by GCC countries was USD 69.79 in 2018, before decreasing in the COVID-19 years to USD 41.47 in 2020, recovering to USD 69.89 in 2021 and increasing to USD 100.08 in 2022 [
80]. The average oil selling price over the last 5 years was USD 69.05 [
80].
In all scenarios 2-I–2-III, revenue comes from precipitated CaCO3, where in scenarios 2-II and 2-III this is the only revenue coming from the precipitation process. In our experiments, the CaCO3 produced was just below the required purity for certain applications, where it must also be noted that there is a Sr content and many of the heavy metals present in the PW, albeit in very small concentrations, crystallize with CaCO3 (see above). Apart from that, there always has been a small concentration of Na+ in our precipitated CaCO3. Nevertheless, it can be expected that higher-purity CaCO3 can be reached with a slightly better controlled precipitation process.
With this in mind, 1 ton of CaCO
3 has a value of USD 50–350, depending on the purity [
74]. Therefore, the revenue from 4451.25 tons CaCO
3 per day ranges from USD
81,000,000 per year to USD
569,000,000 per year.
In scenario 2-I, NaOH is prepared by electrolysis from brine [see reaction (c)], and here chlorine gas and hydrogen gas are produced as side products. The sales value of hydrogen reaches USD 7220 per metric ton on the global markets [
65], or USD 7.22 per kg. Therefore, every kg of NaOH produced will provide a revenue of USD 0.1805 from hydrogen sales. Chlorine sells at USD 250/ton [
64]. Therefore, every kg of NaOH produced will provide a revenue of USD 0.195 (for 886 g Cl
2) from chlorine sales. This gives a total of USD 0.3755/kg NaOH-produced revenue from the by-products of NaOH production, [
71] where the market value of H
2 produced would be USD 235,000,000 and the value of Cl
2 would be USD 288,000,000 per year. Detailed calculations can be found in the
Supplementary Section E.
Should H2 and Cl2 be seen as sources of revenue, then HCl needs to be acquired externally at a cost of USD 319,000,000 per year, as mentioned above, and is carried out for scenarios 2-II and 2-III. Otherwise, Cl2 and H2 created as side products are used to produce the needed HCl, and thus do not contribute to additional revenue. Depending on the market values, the capacity utilization of the NaOH and HCl plants, and other logistic considerations, a different mix of sales and acquisitions of chlorine, hydrogen and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid will be appropriate under different circumstances. This is only true for scenario 2-I, as in the other scenarios H2 and Cl2 are not produced and HCl needs to be sourced externally.
Also, it must be noted that sodium hydroxide has a market value of USD 260 per ton [
63]. Therefore, the NaOH production can be laid out in such a way that more NaOH is produced than is needed for the CaCO
3 precipitation. Momentarily, while a certain percentage of filtered PW is diverted to the NaOH production in scenario 2-I, the sodium content of the diverted PW is merged again with the main stream of PW during the precipitation process. Should it be found beneficial to produce excess NaOH to sell on the market, then the sodium needed for it will be diverted permanently from the PW stream and will no longer be available to produce industrial salt.
The oil–water separation in PW using membrane- and adsorption-filtration processes costs
USD 03,000,000 per year. There are revenues from oil recovery in this process valued from USD
22,000,000 per year to USD
60,000,000 per year. This leads to an overall loss of USD
243,000,000 per year to USD
281,000,000 per year, as shown in
Supplementary Section F.
In the precipitation process of unwanted alkaline earth metals, especially of Ca
2+, we have to distinguish between three scenarios: 2-I, 2-II, and 2-III. Details of the calculations are in
Supplementary Section G and the cost- and revenue-variation impacts are shown in
Supplementary Section H. For reasons of simplicity, for all scenarios HCl is sourced externally.
According to the calculations shown in
Table 6 above, only scenario 2-1, where NaOH is produced on-site and chlorine and hydrogen gases are sold, whereas hydrochloric acid is sourced externally, produces a profit at this stage. It must be highlighted that the authors did not figure in the needed infrastructure for the distribution, storage and sale of chlorine and hydrogen gases.
The most significant factor in the elevated costs of the precipitation process for scenarios 2-I and 2-II is the purchase of CO
2. It must be noted that momentarily excess gases separated from the petroleum/PW are flared, after separation of the H
2S component. The composition of the gas of the SK site is very similar to that published by Alqaheem [
84] (
Table 7). A number of efforts have been undertaken to utilize either the material or the heat content of the excess gas. Where the gas is flared on-site, the heat content can be utilized. The generated CO
2 can be sequestered. The utilization of CO
2 in enhanced oil recovery through injection into the subsurface has been investigated extensively. It is this CO
2 gas, however, which can be used in processes 2-I and 2-II, which would significantly reduce the cost of these processes.
The fixed cost for carbon capture and utilization for a post-combustion capture technology facility is estimated to be USD 45 per ton of CO
2 captured [
85], and the transport costs are USD 0 to 7 per ton of CO
2. This is more cost-effective than buying CO
2 at USD 215 per ton. A generic scheme of including carbon sequestration in the processes of scenario 2 is shown in
Figure 7.
Desalination of PW and production of industrial salt using an average solar distillation.
After the precipitation of CaCO
3, PW is subjected to desalination by solar distillation An
average solar distillation total cost of USD
1,189,000,000 per year is used in our calculations for the simplicity of data presentation, noting that an upper value of USD 1,971,000,000 (USD 1,000,000
5.4
365) and a lower value of USD 406,000,000 (USD 1,000,000
1.113
365 {fixed and operational costs for the solar distillation} have been recorded, which are detailed in
Supplementary Section I. A further comparison for the cost of different thermal- and electrical-energy-dependent desalination methods is shown in
section J of the Supplementary Material.
In scenario 2-I, close to 1 million barrels of PW carrying an upper range of 51.500 ppm Na+ (130.880 ppm NaCl) are directed towards the solar distillation units. Here, 15,605 tons of NaCl can be produced per day, with a value of USD 780,000 per day (at USD 50 per ton NaCl) to USD 4,000,000 per day (at USD 260 per ton NaCl).
In scenarios 2-II and 2-III, the PW streams are enriched with NaCl, due to the addition of externally sourced sodium salts during the precipitation process. This adds an additional 5203 tons NaCl to the PW stream per day. Therefore, 20,808 tons of NaCl can be produced per day in both scenarios 2-II and 2-III, with a value of USD 1,000,000 per day (at USD per ton NaCl) to USD 5,000,000 per day (at USD 260 per ton NaCl).
This amounts to USD 286,000,000 per year—USD 1,481,000,000 per year for NaCl reclamation from PW derived from scenario 2-I and USD 380,000,000 per year—USD 1,975,000,000 per year for PW derived from either scenario 2-II or scenario 2-III.
The second product from the desalination step is the desalted water, which, at USD 0.79 per barrel, sells at USD 790,000 per day (USD 288,000,000 per year).
Overall cost analysis
In all scenarios (I-III) presented, the three products, CaCO
3, NaCl (industrial salt) and desalinated water, are of commercial value, as is the oil separated from the PW. The results are displayed in
Table 8 below:
It can be seen from the above that all scenarios 2-I–2-III lead to an overall loss, when forced to be operated with lowest sales prices of the products. Nevertheless, the more interesting scenario is scenario I, where NaOH is produced on-site. This offers two side products of commercial value, Cl2 and H2. These two can also be used to produce the HCl needed for the completion of the precipitation process. However, HCl may well be cheaper to source externally than to produce on-site, especially if no such production facility is yet present, as is the case in the SK oilfield operation. If needed, Cl2, H2 and HCl can be sold in different volumes, depending on market demands. This helps lower the break-even price that CaCO3 needs to be sold at.
Table 9 depicts the net outcomes of scenario-0, scenario-1, and scenarios 2-I–2-III. It can be seen that scenario 1 is the only profitable case throughout, with more than an estimated USD 530 million in net revenue per annum. Scenario 2-I was found to be 43.5 percent cheaper than the currently practiced method at the SK oilfield for the first year of implementation. From the second year onwards, the total revenues from scenario 2-I exceed the operational costs by 20 percent, resulting in an operating profit of more than USD 115,000,000 per annum, generated from the reclamation and sales of valuable materials found in PW streams. Scenario 2-II turned out to be more expensive than scenario 0, while scenario 2-III was cheaper than scenario 0, with scenarios 0 and 2-II generating losses even in the second year, after excluding the fixed costs. From the second year onwards, scenario 2-III records marginal profits estimated to reach USD 21 million per annum only. Therefore, scenario 2-I is the most cost-effective case of all scenarios 2 and compared to scenario 0, as it is expected to retrieve the losses in the first year, including the fixed costs, within 1.63 years.
The processes just analyzed mimic a process studied by Wenzlick [
86], but with a different end product, along with minor adjustments, as indicated in
Figure 8. It must be noted, however, that, interestingly, the sulfate content of the PW from the SK field, as analyzed, has a relatively low sulfate concentration, so that an addition of barium chloride (BaCl
2) to remove the sulfate as BaSO
4 is not needed, which obviates at least one filtration process. Also, we replaced the Mechanical Vapor Recompression (MVR) with a solar distillation for the final desalination process. Most studies carried out with MVR are with PW with 50,000 ppm salt concentration or less. Higher salt concentrations, as for the PW of the SK oilfield, necessitate a higher operating pressure [
87] and therefore a higher operating cost, surpassing the minimum of 2 kWh energy required to produce 1 m
3 of distillate from the PW stream at USD 2.2/kWh operational cost. In all cases where MVR was introduced, the brine revenue did not exceed the MVR cost and the tipping fee was the decisive factor in generating profits [
85]. It must be noted that recently a recovery of water and minerals from a produced water stream from oil and gas production was proposed, using a low-temperature evaporation and crystallization dynamic vapor recovery [
88].
The red circle defines the steps eliminated for the proposed process, as the precipitation of barium sulfate is not needed in the studied case.
In scenarios 0 and 1 of the current proposal, either all or part of the PW is being pumped into disposal wells. It must be noted that disposal wells can be categorized into Class I and Class II wells. Class I wells are used to inject hazardous and non-hazardous wastes into deep, confined rock formations. Class I wells are typically drilled thousands of feet below the lowermost underground source of drinking water to prevent contamination of freshwater aquifers. As an example, around 800 operational Class I wells currently exist in the United States, of which 17 percent are hazardous-waste-disposal wells and 53 percent are used for the injection of non-hazardous industrial waste. Most Class I hazardous-waste wells are located at industrial facilities and dispose of waste generated on-site. They serve industries such as petroleum refining, chemical production, municipal waste treatment and pharmaceutical production [
89].
Currently, Class II wells are used only to inject fluids associated with oil and natural-gas production. Class II fluids are primarily brines (salt water) that are brought to the surface while producing oil and gas. The number of Class II wells varies from year to year based on fluctuations in oil and gas demand and production. Approximately 180,000 Class II wells are in operation in the United States, where only 20 percent of the total are disposal wells and the rest are distributed between enhanced recovery wells and hydrocarbon storage wells [
89].
Usually, the injection of produced water is carried out by the operator who generated it, where it is injected into underground permeable rock formations with no oil or gas production, and sealed above and below by continuous, waterproof layers where most operators maintain their own saltwater disposal wells (SWDs), similar to the operators of the SK oilfield. Commercial disposal is an alternative option for oil and gas operators who do not wish to operate any PW treatment facility. Here, a third party is paid for the injection of PW into a Class I or II disposal well [
89]. However, Class I wells are rarely approved to be offsite [
90].
Due to the similarity between the industrial and commercial activities, it can be expected that regulations for PW disposal wells for the oil and gas industry could be revised, in that Class I disposal wells are to be used exclusively, especially since other petroleum refining waste material is disposed of in Class I wells.
When comparing the costs associated with the disposal in the different well classes, it is found that Commercial Class II saltwater disposal facilities charge USD 0.50 to USD 1.00 per barrel of water injected, which is within the current disposal well ranges calculated in our proposal, while Class I wells charge USD 7.50 to USD 10.50 per barrel injected [
91]. Therefore, a regulatory change in a re-classification of PW to a hazardous waste and the requirement of a specialized third-party entity for proper disposal, using Class I disposal wells, will result in significantly increased expenditures, amounting to 3-to-4 times the maximum calculated disposal costs given in our proposal (found in Tc1b). The disposal costs could be expected to rise from USD 456,000,000 to a range of USD 1,369,000,000 to 1,825,000,000 per year.
This potential change in disposal costs due to a change in the permitted disposal-well class for PW disposal will lead to a deficit in scenario 1, ranging from USD −318,000,000 to −774,000,000 per year for the first year only, when not considering the median costs or the expected annual increase, as the generated quantities rise on an annual basis. Such significant economic burden will force the operating oil company to re-consider scenarios 2-1 or 3 (see below) as alternatives to scenarios 0 and 2 as they treat the produced water efficiently and have fewer PW-disposal activities.
Table 10 shows the total outcome for scenario 1 in the case of PW being classified as a hazardous material in a 5-year net-outcome comparison:
Regulatory changes in the use of disposal wells will also have an effect on scenario 0, which is followed currently in the SK oil field.
Table 11 (below) demonstrates the difference between Scenario 0 with altered disposal wells and Scenario 2-1, where the waste material is collected and reused:
Table 11 shows that scenario 2-I is 8 times cheaper than scenario 0, when regulatory changes are put into place, with the net losses from scenario 2-I being 12.5 percent of the net losses of scenario 0. Discounting the fixed costs of establishing the infrastructure, scenario 2-I remains profitable, though from the second year onwards.
The double effect of lower oil prices and more stringent environmental controls expose the oil producing company to even higher potential losses, with the returns barely reaching half of the required expenses, resulting in an alarming situation that is best avoided by preventive strategic planning. This means that a sudden shift towards the exclusive use of Class I wells for PW disposal would cause a major issue for oil and gas operators. Their production capacity would be at risk, due to the unavailability of enough Class I disposal wells to accommodate all the PW quantities currently disposed of in Class II disposal wells, as there are only 800 wells of the first type compared to 180,000 of the latter [
87]. Therefore, it is of strategic importance to plan ahead of any possible environmental regulatory changes and secure a safe disposal infrastructure in the long term. A rise in the demand for Class I disposal wells may also increase the prices asked for by commercial disposal-well providers. Nevertheless, it is difficult to predict the market price of Class I disposal wells at any specific time. This again is a potential risk that may jeopardize the oil companies’ production operations and further affect their financial returns. Kuwait usually follows US standards related to the oil industry, such as API standards, and commits to international agreements to preserve the environment under the UN, which makes it vulnerable to these changes.
Scenario 1 uses 50% of the PW produced for EOR operations. However, EOR water injection is not a flexible solution for the increasing amounts of PW generated at a specific oilfield. The excessive reinjection of treated or untreated produced water can cause many complications. Therefore, it is important to consider the potential setbacks when contemplating alternative solutions to reuse or recycle increasing amounts of PW. Low-salinity water injection can cause a number of problems for the hydrocarbon-producing formation. Thus, alteration of water salinity and the migration of fine particles lead to the blockage of the pore walls of the producing formation, causing a decline in the pores’ permeability [
92]. This can alter the well’s injectivity as quickly as 100 days after starting the water injection, and within three years the reduction in injectivity can reach 77 percent. The higher the injection pressure or rate, the faster the observed decrease in injectivity [
93]. Furthermore, the changing characteristics of PW and its incompatibility with the oil-producing formations can result in the rapid formation of scale, which again leads to a diminishing producing-pore size [
94]. This is also partly due to the invasion of foreign particles [
95], which in turn reduce the flow of oil from the formation to the wells, resulting in an oil production loss [
96]. So, it is important to consider the protection of the reservoir in the process of the oilfield development, and the possible extent of damage to the reservoir due to its sensitivity to different attributes such as water, salt, fluid velocity and acids. Because of these reasons, we do not recommend a full-fledged EOR water injection scenario, referred to in the manuscript as scenario 1. Scenario 1 is the most profitable approach, but it is associated with complexities and with the most risks.
Scenario 3—a hybrid proposal
Due to the risks described above, associated with scenario 1, a hybrid proposal (
Figure 9) was considered, which is essentially a 50:50 hybrid of scenario 1 and scenario 2-1. So, scenario 3 comprises gravity separation, ceramic-membrane and adsorption filtration as PW purification methods, and water injection (EOR), along with solar distillation as later-stage processes for an efficient PW utilization, bringing the two high-potential-revenue-generating scenarios together.
For scenario 3, the points discussed for scenarios 1 and 2 remain valid. The quality of the CaCO3 that is precipitated has a significant effect on the economic return of this portion of the process. A HCl plant on-site is of benefit, as is the carbon sequestration from the flare gases of the oil production process in the form of CO2.
Scenario 3, however, is free from concerns about regulatory changes regarding PW disposal wells. The infrastructure needed for scenario 2 has to be put in place for scenario 3, in addition to the infrastructure needed for the reinjection of PW. On the other hand, scenario 3 provides the most flexibility of all scenarios.
EOR injection is of higher economic return only when the variable costs are well controlled. Otherwise, a large deficit or loss is incurred, especially when the EOR-injection and solar-distillation costs rise. Financially, a merger between both scenarios 1 and 2, as proposed in scenario 3, outweighs the current disposal methods implemented in the SK oilfield, and similar disposal activities practiced in other oilfields within the State of Kuwait, as it generates profits.
As our previous calculations showed, the only profitable model among the versions of scenario 2 is scenario 2-I, and only after eliminating the fixed costs of the first year. Therefore, scenario 2-I has been selected as a component of the hybrid proposal, along with scenario 1 (EOR), albeit without a disposal of 50% of the PW in disposal wells, as this 50% will now be treated according to scenario 2-I. The economic calculations for the first year, including fixed costs, are found in
section K of the Supplementary Data.
Table 12 and
Table 13 show economic calculations for the proposed hybrid process (scenario 3) for the first year and for the following 4 years, here excluding fixed costs. All the PW-related costs and revenues are adjusted to the expected 3-percent increase in PW generation over the projected period of 5 years for each scenario (in USD millions).
Table 12 works with the lower range of injection costs,
Table 13 with the higher range of injection and distillation costs.
Again, the calculations indicate that the injection costs for EOR are critical to the economic feasibility of the hybrid solution, where the hybrid solution can generate more than USD 1.226 billion over the course of 5 years, including the initial capital expenses, with an average rate of return exceeding 81 percent on an annual basis. This is considered very economical in terms of revenue, and such forecasts should be very encouraging for oilfield operators or production companies, e.g., for Kuwait Oil Company or Kuwait Gulf Oil Company. The economic calculations for the following 4 years, excluding fixed costs, are as displayed in
Table 13 below, with all the PW-related costs and revenues adjusted to the expected 3-percent increase in PW generation over the projected period of 5 years for each scenario (in USD millions), with the detailed calculations found in the
Supplementary Section K:
The large difference between Tc-3a and Tc-3b in the costs of water injection has reflected on the proposal’s profitability, where the average IRR dropped from 72% to −50%. This highlights the importance of managing the operational costs within the planned limits, to avoid any operational losses once the project is commissioned.
The final solution comprises the following processes: (a) gravity separation, (b) ceramic membrane filtration, (c) adsorption filtration, (d) EOR water injection and (e) solar distillation. The process is designed to have three layers of filtration to remove all impurities. Secondly, water injection has a great economic advantage, and increases the SK oilfield output by 50,000 barrels per day. This incentivizes the operating company to pursue this solution as the largest revenue source, namely increased oil production, and utilizes, in part, the existing infrastructure, minimizing capital requirements. The reclamation of salt from the PW stream, as well as the sales of treated PW, offer additional constant revenues and at the same time eliminate or at least reduce a significant waste stream of the oil extraction in the SK oilfield as a clear measure to preserve the local environment. This is in line with the strategic goals of the state authorities.
Expected Impact of Enhanced Oil-Recovery Operations on Kuwait’s Economy
The Kuwaiti economy is highly reliant on oil sales. When oil prices are high, the economic contribution of oil sales towards the national GDP increases to more than 55 percent (
Figure 10). The volume of oil is another important factor affecting the revenue from crude oil exports. Water injection naturally increases the pressures in the reservoir and results in an increased oil output [
97]. The earlier calculated percentages are used to predict the economic impact on Kuwait’s GDP once it is implemented in all its existing oilfields.
Due to the fact that Kuwait’s GDP is up to 50% dependent on oil activities, a 20% uptick in its producing capacity would result in a 10% increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) and also in its GDP per capita. The Government of Kuwait depends on oil revenues to cover 90 percent of its fiscal budget. Therefore, an 18% incremental increase in oil revenues in the fiscal budget of the government of Kuwait can be expected for scenario 1, assuming that oil prices are consistent over the same period.
Figure 11 and
Figure 12 demonstrate the possible outcomes of developing two of Kuwait’s major oilfields through water-injection EOR methods.
Due to the natural fluctuation in oil prices, as shown in
Figure 10 (above), it is important to have the possibility to compensate with an adjustment in the volume of oil produced. EOR techniques such as the one discussed above in scenarios 1 and 3 can help satisfy increased oil demand.