The Effectiveness of Russian Government Policy to Support SMEs in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Features of SME Development Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic
1.2. Development of SMEs during the COVID-19 Pandemic
2. Literature Review
3. Methods and Materials
- (1)
- the number of SMEs, units (X1);
- (2)
- the number of employees of small and medium-sized enterprises, thousand people (X2);
- (3)
- the volume of SME turnover, billion RUB (X3);
- (4)
- the volume of production costs of small and medium-sized businesses, billion RUB (X4);
- (5)
- the amount of net profit of SMEs, billion RUB (X5);
- (6)
- the amount of equity capital of SMEs, billion RUB (X6);
- (7)
- the amount of borrowed and attracted capital of SMEs, billion RUB (X7);
- (8)
- the volumes of private investment in fixed assets of SMEs (foreign investment, funds of organizations and population), billion RUB (X8);
- (9)
- the intensity of COVID-19 propagation (X9);
- (10)
- producer price index, % (X10);
- (11)
- consumer price index, % (X11).
- (1)
- Duration of quarantine in the world (t1), days. The first country to introduce quarantine was China—since 23.01.2020, restrictions have been introduced that affect small and medium-sized businesses around the world. Therefore, 23 January 2020 is the “zero” point from which the duration of quarantine in the world is counted for the purposes of this study. The influence of this indicator on the level of business activities of small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia is conditioned by the mood of panic of the population, the limitation of passenger and transport traffic, the increase in the cost of transporting goods and a decrease in foreign trade. The value of the correlation coefficient between the quarantine duration in the world and the RSBI is −0.97;
- (2)
- The duration of quarantine in Russia (t2), expressed in days, is the duration of the non-working day regime. The impact of quarantine is expressed by a decrease in domestic demand for goods and services; decrease in labor productivity as a result of teleworking (according to [40], teleworking leads to a 5% decrease in labor productivity). The value of the correlation coefficient between the duration of non-working days in Russia and the RSBI is −0.96.
4. Results
- with an increase in the amount of deferred tax/duty payments by 1% relative to the level of 2018, the RSBI increases by 0.820%;
- with a decrease in the number of on-site tax audits by 1% it will increase by 0.855%;
- with a decrease in the number of cameral tax audits by 1% it will increase by 0.815%;
- with a decrease in the amount of insurance premium for compulsory social insurance by 1% it will increase by 0.824%;
- with a decrease in interest on loans by 1% it will increase by 0.753%;
- with a decrease in the number of enterprises that went bankrupt at the initiative of creditors by 1% it will increase by 0.004%;
- with an increase in the volume of subsidies allocated from the federal budget for government support of small and medium-sized businesses by 1% it will increase by 0.827%;
- with an increase in the volume of investments at the expense of budget funds in equity capital of small and medium-sized businesses by 1% it will increase by 0.844%;
- with an increase in investment in equity capital of small and medium-sized businesses at the expense of state non-budgetary funds by 1% it will increase by 0.767%.
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Type of Government Support | Indicator | Symbolic Notation of the Indicator |
---|---|---|
Tax support [74] | The amount of deferred payments (installment liabilities) and restructured debt, million RUB, which includes taxes and fees payable, as well as fines and tax sanctions payable | G1 |
Number of on-site tax audits, units | G2 | |
Number of office tax audits, units | G3 | |
The amount of premium income from compulsory social insurance, million RUB | G4 | |
Credit support [75] | Interest on loans to support small and medium-sized businesses, % per annum | G5 |
Administrative support [76] | The number of enterprises that went bankrupt on the creditors’ initiative, units | G6 |
Public funding [77] | The volume of subsidies allocated from the federal budget for government support for small and medium-sized businesses, billion RUB | G7 |
The volume of investment in fixed assets of small and medium-sized businesses at the expense of budget funds, billion RUB | G8 | |
The volume of investment in fixed assets of small and medium-sized businesses at the expense of state non-budgetary funds, billion RUB. | G9 |
Null Hypothesis | Prob. | Causal Direction | Paired Correlation Coefficients |
---|---|---|---|
G1 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.003 | G1→X5 | 0.852 |
G2 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.002 | G2→X5 | −0.888 |
G3 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.004 | G3→X5 | −0.847 |
G4 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.003 | G4→X5 | −0.856 |
G5 does not Granger cause X7 | 0.003 | G5→X7 | −0.862 |
G6 does not Granger cause X1 | 0.006 | G6→X1 | −0.819 |
G7 does not Granger cause X7 | 0.000 | G7→X7 | 0.947 |
G8 does not Granger cause X7 | 0.000 | G8→X7 | 0.966 |
G9 does not Granger cause X7 | 0.005 | G9→X7 | 0.838 |
X1 does not Granger cause X2 | 0.006 | X1→X2 | 0.809 |
X1 does not Granger cause X3 | 0.010 | X1→X3 | 0.772 |
X1 does not Granger cause X4 | 0.009 | X1→X4 | 0.782 |
X2 does not Granger cause X3 | 0.002 | X2→X3 | 0.892 |
X2 does not Granger cause X4 | 0.002 | X2→X4 | 0.884 |
X3 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.000 | X3→X5 | 0.967 |
X4 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.000 | X4→X5 | −0.951 |
X5 does not Granger cause X6 | 0.006 | X5→X6 | 0.817 |
X5 does not Granger cause Y | 0.000 | X5→Y | 0.963 |
X6 does not Granger cause X3 | 0.004 | X6→X3 | 0.839 |
X6 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.006 | X6→X5 | 0.817 |
X6 does not Granger cause Y | 0.001 | X6→Y | 0.924 |
X7 does not Granger cause X3 | 0.000 | X7→X3 | 0.961 |
X7 does not Granger cause X5 | 0.001 | X7→X5 | 0.925 |
X7 does not Granger cause Y | 0.005 | X7→Y | 0.834 |
X8 does not Granger cause X6 | 0.006 | X8→X6 | 0.812 |
X8 does not Granger cause X7 | 0.000 | X8→X7 | 0.994 |
X9 does not Granger cause Y | 0.000 | X9→Y | −0.997 |
X10 does not Granger cause X4 | 0.005 | X10→X4 | 0.834 |
X11 does not Granger cause X3 | 0.004 | X11→X3 | −0.840 |
Y does not Granger cause X1 | 0.005 | Y→X1 | 0.831 |
Government Support Indicators | Chain of Intermittent Actions | Changes in Indicator Y under the Intermittent Influence, % |
---|---|---|
G1, million RUB | G1→X5→Y | 0.820 |
G2, units | G2→X5→Y | −0.855 |
G3, units | G3→X5→Y | −0.815 |
G4, million RUB | G4→X5→Y | −0.824 |
G5, % per annum | G5→X7→X5→Y | −0.753 |
G5→X7→Y | ||
G5→X7→X3→X5→Y | ||
G6, units | G6→X1→X2→X3→X5→Y | −0.004 |
G6→X1→X2→X→X5→Y | ||
G6→X1→X3→X5→Y | ||
G6→X1→X4→X5→Y | ||
G7, billion RUB | G7→X7→X5→Y | 0.827 |
G7→X7→Y | ||
G7→X7→X3→X5→Y | ||
G8, billion RUB | G8→X7→X5→Y | 0.844 |
G8→X7→Y | ||
G8→X7→X3→X5→Y | ||
G9, billion RUB | G9→X7→X5→Y | 0.767 |
G9→X7→Y | ||
G9→7→X3→X5→Y |
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Razumovskaia, E.; Yuzvovich, L.; Kniazeva, E.; Klimenko, M.; Shelyakin, V. The Effectiveness of Russian Government Policy to Support SMEs in the COVID-19 Pandemic. J. Open Innov. Technol. Mark. Complex. 2020, 6, 160. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6040160
Razumovskaia E, Yuzvovich L, Kniazeva E, Klimenko M, Shelyakin V. The Effectiveness of Russian Government Policy to Support SMEs in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2020; 6(4):160. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6040160
Chicago/Turabian StyleRazumovskaia, Elena, Larisa Yuzvovich, Elena Kniazeva, Mikhail Klimenko, and Valeriy Shelyakin. 2020. "The Effectiveness of Russian Government Policy to Support SMEs in the COVID-19 Pandemic" Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity 6, no. 4: 160. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6040160