Economic Impacts of Disasters and Economic Events on Commercial Fishery—The Case of Mississippi Blue Crabs

Abstract

Impact assessments are necessary for supporting fisheries’ disaster applications and management options for states affected by disasters. This paper measures the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on commercial dockside values of the Mississippi blue crab fishery. The mean-difference model estimates the direct impacts when the current dockside values fall below the benchmark values. The marine economic recovery model identifies the significant determinants of the variations in the dockside values. Mean-difference model results indicate that the Mississippi blue crab fishery sustained direct losses due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, and the opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway in 2011. The estimated marine economic recovery model explained 93 percent of the variations in real dockside values. Two independent variables are statistically significant, including blue crab landings and time. The disaster variables have the expected signs but are not statistically significant. These methodologies’ usefulness is applicable in assessing the direct impacts on fisheries and other economic sectors affected by disasters such as major hurricanes, oil spills, massive freshwater intrusion, and harmful algal blooms.

1. Introduction

The crab industry made significant economic contributions to the state of Mississippi. The crab industry produced total sales of $8.18 million, created 244 jobs, and generated a total income of $3.55 million [1]. These contributions represent three and four percent of total seafood industry sales and job contributions in 2009. In addition, the crab industry contributed $0.52 million to indirect business tax collections. Seafood processing data provided by NOAA Fisheries [2] showed that fewer than three Mississippi processing plants reported handling crabs after 2011. As a result, crab processing data were combined with oyster processing data to maintain the confidentiality of processing data. This lack of crab processing data since the last decade led to the non-reporting of the economic impacts of crab processing in Mississippi. A survey of Mississippi seafood restaurants showed that participating restaurants purchased snow crab, Dungeness crab, and king crab [3]. Due to the confidentiality of crab and oyster processing data in Mississippi, the economic contribution of the two species to the total seafood industry has been combined since 2015 [4]. According to federal law, data are made public when more than three businesses report said data to maintain data privacy.

The declining trend in crab processing activities in Mississippi indicates severe disruptions in the industry supply chains, from harvesting to processing and distribution activities. Poor biological performance, natural, technological, and man-made disasters, global pandemics, and economic events bring about these disruptions. Recent disasters include Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, the 2011 and 2019 Bonnet Carre Spillway disasters, and the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020.

Hurricane Katrina’s powerful winds and high storm surge reached the Mississippi coastline on 29 August 2005. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina had significant economic impacts on Mississippi’s seafood industry and left lingering effects in subsequent years. Massive damage was reported by Mississippi commercial fishing vessels [5], processing, wholesaling, and retailing establishments [6], charter boats for hire, marinas, and live bait dealers [7].

Deepwater Horizon is the largest oil spill in marine oil drilling operations history. Four million barrels of oil flowed from the damaged Macondo well into the Gulf of Mexico over 87 days before being completely plugged on 15 July 2010 [8]. Early-life-stage blue crabs were reported to be sensitive to photo-induced toxicity from Deepwater Horizon slick oil [9]. The effects of the 2010 oil spill on landings, revenues, and effort in the commercial blue crab fishery were examined [10]. Their findings suggest that the 2010 oil spill led to substantial, short-term losses to the blue crab fishery. They also observed that the blue crab fishery exhibited high resilience and recovered quickly after removing the fishing closures.

A study reported that “post-oil spill studies in the northern Gulf of Mexico found widespread evidence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) contamination associated with the DWH oil spill event in coastal biota, including wild-caught blue crab megalopae” or young blue crabs [11]. Another study reported that PAHs derived from the aquatic environment are accumulated and are toxic to fish and invertebrates [12]. Attention was drawn to the need for ongoing and thorough investigations into the economic impacts of the oil spill on Gulf of Mexico fisheries [13]. An economic study reported closures of Mississippi seafood and related establishments associated with the massive oil spill in 2010 [14].

The Mississippi marine sector was threatened by the lingering impacts of the prolonged and twice opening of most of the 350 bays of the Bonnet Carre spillway for 123 days from 27 February to 17 April and 10 May to 27 July 2019 [15]. Several million gallons of polluted water were released into the Mississippi Sound, causing massive water quality problems. Several press releases reported harmful algal blooms (HABs) in July and August 2019 in the Mississippi Sound. HABs in the Mississippi Sound from the Louisiana border to the Alabama border resulted in state-mandated prohibition of water-related activities during the period. Eight years earlier, the Bonnet Carre Spillway was opened for 42 days, from 9 May to 20 June 2011 [15]. This prolonged freshwater intrusion caused massive water quality problems in the Mississippi Sound.

The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S. on 13 March 2020. The U.S. economy was in recession from February to June 2020. The U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. China reciprocated by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports. Fuel prices on the Gulf Coast rose to more than $5 per gallon in 2022 [16].

This paper aims to develop a marine economic recovery model for a commercial blue crab fishery based on long-term secondary data. The specific objectives are as follows:

• To estimate empirical marine economic models of the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery.
• To measure the individual and joint direct impacts of time, real input prices, unemployment rates, disasters, and economic events on real dockside values.
• To estimate the economic impacts of recent major disasters and economic events on the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery.

2. Methods

Disasters and economic events affect the aggregate demand and supply of marine sector goods and services. Global pandemics and recessions set back aggregate demand. Tariffs, higher fuel costs, and disasters cut down aggregate supply. The economic resiliency of the marine sector is measured by its ability to recover to pre-disaster aggregate demand and supply levels. Impact assessments are necessary for supporting fisheries’ disaster applications and management options for states affected by disasters. Impact assessment methodologies have improved since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Rapid Impact assessment needs updated data on the economic industry affected by recent disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the 2011 and 2019 openings of the Bonnet Carre Spillway. The same methodologies can be applied to assess the direct impacts on other economic sectors affected by disasters.

This paper developed two approaches to measuring the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery. These economic models include the mean-difference model and the marine economic recovery model.

2.1. Mean-Difference Model

NOAA Fisheries [17] defined the “typical damages to the commercial fishing sector included revenues losses and structural damages to processor and dealer facilities, loss of product, damages to commercial fishing vessels, and lost gear”. This paper measures direct loss caused by a disaster event in terms of income and production value reduction.

The mean-difference model estimates losses associated with a major disaster by comparing the values of selected economic indicators during the year the disaster occurred to their means during the benchmark period. The benchmark period is the years immediately preceding the year the disaster occurred. It is preferred to be at least three consecutive years without any other major disaster. Losses occur when the current values are less than the benchmark means.

These direct losses are the direct impacts in estimating the total economic impacts using the IMPLAN Cloud [18] software. Succeeding years’ real dockside values are compared to the benchmark periods to measure economic losses.

Three benchmark periods were selected for the major disaster events during the past two decades. The benchmark period for Hurricane Katrina was from 2000 to 2004. These five years were selected as the benchmark since no major disasters occurred during these years.

The benchmark period for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and 2011 Bonnet Carre Spillway opening started from 2007 to 2009. These three years were designated as the benchmark since no major disasters struck during these years.

The benchmark period for the 2019 Bonnet Carre Spillway openings and the COVID-19 pandemic was from 2014 to 2018. These five years were chosen as the benchmark since no major disasters happened during these years.

The dockside values of Mississippi blue crab landings used in the mean-difference and economic recovery models covered 2000 to 2022. The annual U.S. consumer price index deflates the annual dockside values.

2.2. Marine Economic Recovery Model

The marine economic recovery model is defined by Equation (1) as

$$\mathrm{Y}=\mathrm{a}+\mathrm{b}\left(\mathrm{X}\right)+\in ,$$

(1)

where Y—real dockside values, X—measurable output and real input prices, disasters and economic events, and $\in$—error term. The independent variables include commercial landings, time, real fuel prices, unemployment rates, magnitude and duration of disasters, and economic events [

Table 1. Description and summary of the variables included in the marine economic recovery model of the Mississippi blue crab fishery, 1995–2022.

Variable	Description	Number of Observations	Mean	Standard Deviation
Commercial landings	Million pounds	28	0.663	0.217
Real dockside value	Million dollars	28	1.079	0.362
Unemployment rate	Percent	28	6.578	1.571
Real diesel price	Dollars per gallon	28	2.835	0.913
Average water release due to Bonnet Carre Spillway opening	Cubic yards per second	28	1882.107	3683.074
Recession months	Months per year	28	1.087	2.962
COVID-19 days	Days per year	28	36.536	107.999
Disaster days	Days per year	28	4.179	17.099
Trade war months	Months per year	28	1.929	4.337

]. This model was adopted from the initial versions of the marine economic recovery model developed for the Mississippi oyster fishery [19,20,21].

Recent disasters included major hurricanes, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the opening of the Bonnet Carre spillway, and harmful algal blooms. Hurricane Katrina destroyed fishing vessels and seafood facilities, including crab fishing vessels, fishing gear, and processing plants. The massive oil spill in April 2020 damaged the Gulf of Mexico States marine ecosystem and prolonged the closure of state and federal waters to fishing activities. The prolonged opening of the Bonnet Carre Spill from May to June 2011 led to a massive intrusion of freshwater into the Mississippi Sound. The prolonged opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway twice from March to July 2019 led to a massive intrusion of freshwater into the Mississippi Sound, leading to water quality deterioration and harmful algal blooms. These disasters are assumed to have negatively affected the real dockside values of commercial blue crab landings.

The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S. on 13 March 2020. The U.S. economy was in recession from February to June 2020. The U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. China reciprocated by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports. Fuel prices in the Gulf Coast rose to $4.68 per gallon in 2022, more than 50 percent higher than the previous year. These economic events are also assumed to negatively affect the real dockside values of blue crab commercial landings.

2.3. Sources of Data

The NOAA Fisheries [22] website publishes the commercial landings and dockside values. Dockside prices are imputed from the commercial landings and dockside values. The U.S. Department of Energy Information [16] is the source of fuel prices in the Gulf of Mexico region. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [23] website posts the Mississippi unemployment rates. Several online sources described the duration of disasters, recession, COVID-19, and trade war events. The water release due to the Bonnet Carre Spillway opening was compiled and imputed from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers website. The dockside values of Mississippi blue crab landings used in the economic recovery models covered 1995 to 2022 deflated by the annual U.S. consumer price index and converted in to 2024 dollars. The main reason is that there were no data available before 1995 for prices of diesel fuel.

2.4. Statistical Analysis

The marine economic recovery model was estimated using Stata 18 (StataCorp LLC, Lakeway Drive, College Station, TX, USA). The empirical model defined by Equation (1) was estimated using the regress and robust variance procedures of Stata-18. The variation inflation factor was calculated to detect the possible presence of multicollinearity. The marginal impacts of disaster events were computed using the margins procedure.

2.5. Economic Impact Analysis

The total economic impacts were estimated using the cloud version of IMPLAN [18] software. Shellfish fishing is the economic sector representing commercial blue crab harvesting. Shellfish fishing “comprises establishments primarily engaged in the commercial catching or taking of shellfish (e.g., clams, crabs, lobsters, mussels, oysters, sea urchins, shrimp) from their natural habitat” [24]. However, the IMPLAN [18] sector used in the economic impact analysis is sector 17—commercial fishing.

IMPLAN is a software that combines data and analytics to understand better an event’s economic impacts [18]. IMPLAN uses annual and regional data to map buy–sell relationships. It can calculate an event’s direct, indirect, and induced effects in a specified location. The software measures the impacts on the number of jobs, sales, income, value-added, and tax revenues. The IMPLAN software calculates the foregone sales, jobs, incomes, value-added, and tax revenues associated with a loss of commercial crabbing dockside values due to disasters.

Five types of impacts were estimated to quantify the annual economic impacts—output or sales, employment, income, total value-added, and tax revenues. The sales, income, total value-added, and tax impacts are expressed in dollars for the year specified by the user. Employment impacts are described as a mix of full-time and part-time jobs. Sales or output, income, value-added, and tax impacts were expressed in dollars. Sales are the gross sales by businesses within Mississippi. Labor income includes personal income such as wages and salaries and proprietors’ income or income from self-employment. Tax revenues consist of state, local, and federal tax collections. Employment impacts are expressed in terms of a mix of both full-time and part-time jobs.

The total economic impact is the sum of direct, indirect, and induced impacts. Direct impacts are measured by the sum of all of the lost dockside values suffered by commercial blue crab fishermen due to disasters. The direct impacts of commercial crabbing are derived from the estimate of the total direct Loss to Mississippi blue crab fishery measured by the mean-difference models.

In IMPLAN [18], models of the Mississippi economy were created using Mississippi data from the years the disasters occurred. An IMPLAN [18] scenario was set up with the direct loss to Mississippi commercial blue crab landings during each major disaster as the direct sales value. IMPLAN [18] internally generated the equivalent direct jobs, income, and value-added impacts from the value of the initial sale. The IMPLAN sector used for the Mississippi blue crab fishery is sector 17, commercial fishing.

The IMPLAN [18] software generated the direct, indirect, and induced effects of the total direct loss in commercial blue crab landings. Indirect impacts result from changes in the economic activity of other industrial sectors that supply goods or services to the commercial blue crabbing industry. Induced impacts are the result of industry employees’ personal consumption expenditures.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Historical Commercial Blue Crab Landings

Managing the blue crab Callinectes sapidus fishery in the Gulf of Mexico is the individual states’ responsibility under the regional management plan’s purview [25]. The harvesting of blue crabs, called Callinectes sapidus, is allowed in Mississippi year-round except in the winter crab sanctuary located southeast of Cat Island [26]. Licensed recreational crab fishermen can catch crabs in Mississippi waters south of Interstate 10. Licensed commercial crab fishermen can catch crabs south of the CSX railroad bridges.

The Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery has undergone significant variations since 1995 (Figure 1). Commercial blue crab landings averaged 0.663 (std dev = ±0.218) million pounds from 1995 to 2022. The significant variations in Mississippi commercial blue crab landings led to severe fluctuations in real dockside values (mean = $1.043, std dev = ±0.035 million, Figure 2), and the imputed dockside prices of blue crabs continued to rise during recent years (Figure 3).

3.2. Mean-Difference Model Results

3.2.1. Benchmark Period 2000–2004 Associated with Hurricane Katrina 2005

Economic losses associated with Hurricane Katrina occur when the real dockside values after the disaster are below the real benchmark values before the disaster. The five-year benchmark period selected for Hurricane Katrina was from 2000 to 2004 (Figure 4). Direct losses were observed in 2005 and 2008, but no direct losses were seen in 2006 and 2007. The direct losses reached—$323,548 in 2005 and—$371,784 in 2008. These direct impacts were 37% and 43% of the 2000–2004 benchmark mean in 2005 and 2008, respectively.

3.2.2. Benchmark Period 2007–2009 Associated with the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in 2010 and Bonnet Carre Spillway Opening in 2011

Economic losses associated with the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill and the 2011 opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway (BCS) arose when the real dockside values after the disasters were below the benchmark values before the disasters. The three-year benchmark period selected for these two disasters was from 2007 to 2009 (Figure 5). Direct losses were observed in 2010, 2011, and 2013. No direct losses were observed in 2012 or 2014. The direct losses reached −$337,987 in 2010, −$424,493 in 2011, and −$311,730 in 2008, which were 39%, 49%, and 36% compared to the 2007–2009 benchmark mean.

3.2.3. Benchmark Period 2014–2018 Associated with the Bonnet Carre Spillway Opening in 2019 and the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020–2022

Economic losses associated with the 2019 BCS opening and the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 appeared when the real dockside values after the disasters were below the benchmark values before the disasters. The five-year benchmark period selected for these two disasters was from 2014 to 2018 (Figure 6). Direct losses were not observed from 2019 to 2022 compared to the 2014–2018 benchmark mean.

3.3. Marine Economic Recovery Model Results

The empirical model estimated for the marine economic recovery of the Mississippi blue crab fishery significantly explained 93 percent of the variations in the real dockside values. Two independent variables are statistically significant (

Table 2. Regression results with the real dockside values of the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery as the dependent variable, 1995–2022.

Item	Coefficient	t-Value
Commercial landings ***	1.144378	11.320000
Time *	0.018060	2.280000
Real diesel price	−0.037546	−1.190000
Unemployment rate	−0.024393	−1.520000
Average water release due to Bonnet Carre Spillway opening	−0.000013	−1.530000
Recession months	−0.001279	−0.310000
COVID-19 days	−0.001279	0.660000
Disaster days	−0.001279	−1.100000
Trade war months	0.012018	1.030000
Constant	−0.503525	−1.580000

Number of observations 28.000; F-value 160.710; R-squared 0.930; Root mean squared error 0.127; Legend: *—significant at 0.05, ***—significant at 0.01.

).

Blue crab landings exerted direct impacts, increasing real dockside value by $1.144 million for every million pounds rise in commercial landings. Real dockside values rose at an average of $0.018 million per year. The rise in real diesel prices had a negative but insignificant impact on real dockside values.

The unemployment rate, which represents the labor force situation in Mississippi, tends to negatively impact dockside values significantly. However, its effects on the real domestic landings of blue crabs are not statistically significant. This variable is used as a proxy variable for blue crab fishing efforts but is unavailable.

The volume of water released during the Bonnet Carre Spillway openings tends to diminish the real dockside values of the Mississippi blue crab fishery, but is not statistically significant. Hypothetically, the real dockside value of blue crab landings could have fallen by $24,000 when water release reached 1882 cubic yards per second, which is the average annual volume of water released from 1995 to 2022. Large and prolonged freshwater intrusion into the Mississippi Sound created deteriorating water quality conditions in the critical ecosystem that supports marine life. This worsening condition could lead to severe mortalities and reduced reproductive capacity for marine life that cannot move away from these affected marine waters.

Although not statistically significant, the number of recession months negatively affected real dockside values. The number of COVID-19 days tends to have indirect but insignificant effects on real dockside values, and the number of trade war months is inclined to have direct but minor effects. Recessions and the global pandemic disrupted economic activities and reduced employment and incomes.

Figure 7 shows the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery model, 1995–2022. The dots show annual real dockside values. The curve shows the predicted real dockside values. The estimated real dockside values were derived from the empirical economic recovery model shown in Table 2.

This marine economic recovery model explained 93 percent of the variations in real dockside values of Mississippi blue crab landings from 1995 to 2022. Using the same approach, models for other commercial fisheries can be developed. This marine economic recovery modeling allows for projections of the future trends of commercial fishing as it follows a path of recovery after major disasters and financial events.

3.4. Total Economic Impacts on Commercial Blue Crab Fishery

Economic Impacts Associated with Hurricane Katrina in 2005

IMPLAN events were created to estimate the total economic effects of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, and the BCS opening in 2011. The events created in the IMPLAN cloud used the IMPLAN data year corresponding to the disaster year. All of the economic impacts are expressed in 2024-dollar values, as well as the initial direct impacts associated with major disasters. Indirect and induced impacts result from the direct losses on dockside values associated with the major disasters. Indirect impacts are the reduction in the economic activity of other industrial sectors that supply goods or services to the commercial blue crabbing industry. Induced impacts are the reduction in industry employees’ personal consumption expenditures. All of these impact indicators are measured for the entire state of Mississippi. Any changes in sales, jobs, income, value-added and tax revenues reflect changes for the entire state regional economy.

The first IMPLAN event was created with 2005 Mississippi input-output data to analyze the economic impacts of Hurricane Katrina on the blue crab fishery. An industry output loss of −$323,548 was made in the commercial fishing sector with 2005 data year and 2024-dollar values. The total economic impact of the foregone sales of Mississippi commercial blue crabs reached −$363,653 in lost sales or output (

Table 3. Economic impact summary of forgone blue crab landings value associated with the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster, in 2024 dollars.

Impact	Employment	Labor Income ($)	Value Added ($)	Output ($)
1—Direct	−16	−63,208	−318,026	−323,548
2—Indirect	0	−894	−1623	−3510
3—Induced	0	−10,723	−20,884	−36,595
Total	−17	−74,825	−340,532	−363,653

). The foregone blue crab sales also cost the state economy about 17 jobs, −$74,825 in lost income, and −$340,532 in reduced value-added. In addition, the missed blue crab dockside values lowered federal tax collections by −$124,270. Local and state taxes also fell by −$97,474.

A second IMPLAN event was created with 2010 Mississippi input-output data to estimate the economic impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on the blue crab fishery. An industry output loss of −$337,987 was constructed in the commercial fishing sector with 2010 data year and 2024-dollar values. The total economic impact of the skipped sales of Mississippi commercial blue crabs reached −$542,210 in lost sales or output (

Table 4. Economic impact summary of the forgone blue crab landings value associated with the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster.

Impact	Employment	Labor Income ($)	Value Added ($)	Output ($)
1—Direct	−12	−236,768	−332,987	−337,987
2—Indirect	0	−925	−1637	−3776
3—Induced	−1	−51,763	−104,405	−182,447
Total	−13	−289,456	−439,029	−524,210

). The missed blue crab sales also cost the state economy about 13 jobs, −$289,456 in lost income, and −$439,029 in reduced value-added. In addition, the missed blue crab dockside values lowered federal tax collections by −$148,852. Local and state taxes also dropped by −$99,922.

A third IMPLAN event was created with 2011 Mississippi input-output data to estimate the economic impacts of the Bonnet Carre Spillway opening in 2011 on the blue crab fishery. An industry output loss of −$424,493 was structured in the commercial fishing sector with 2011 data year and 2024-dollar values. The total economic impact of the lost sales of Mississippi commercial blue crabs reached −$638,820 in lost sales or output (

Table 5. Economic impact summary of the forgone blue crab landings value associated with the 2011 Bonnet Carre Spillway disaster.

Impact	Employment	Labor Income	Value Added	Output
1—Direct	−13	−283,264	−417,343	−424,493
2—Indirect	0	−1239	−2147	−5124
3—Induced	−1	−58,954	−118,419	−209,203
Total	−15	−343,457	−537,910	−638,820

). The missed blue crab sales also cost the state economy about 15 jobs, −$343,457 in lost income and −$537,910 in reduced value-added. In addition, the omitted blue crab dockside values diminished federal tax collections by −$199,477. Local and state taxes also went down by −$143,843.

No IMPLAN events were created for the 2019 Bonnet Carre Spill disaster and the COVID-19 pandemic. No direct losses were observed in the 2019 man-made disaster and the global pandemic starting in 2020.

4. Summary, Limitations, and Implications

This paper presented the results of two methods of analysis of the economic impacts of natural, technological, and man-made disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on commercial dockside values of the Mississippi blue crab fishery. The mean-difference models estimated that the Mississippi blue crab fishery sustained direct losses due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, and the opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway in 2011. The marine economic recovery model explained 93 percent of the variations in real dockside values with two independent variables, including blue crab landings and time, significantly explaining variations in real dockside values. The major disaster variables have the desired negative signs but were statistically insignificant.

The key limitations confronted in the analysis were the lack of data on fuel prices before 1995, the absence of fishing effort data on Mississippi blue crab fishing, and accurate data on water released during the openings of the Bonnet Carre Spillway. Future economic modeling efforts on other commercial fisheries in Mississippi should consider using better estimates of water release from the Bonnet Carre Spillway openings in the past and incorporating better forms of model specifications. These modeling improvements would enhance the economic value of the information generated in future assessments of other commercial fisheries.

Using this modeling approach, models for other commercial fisheries can be developed to estimate the impacts of disasters in the future. These rapid assessment methods will assist in submitting federal disaster applications associated with major disasters. This marine economic recovery modeling allows for projections of future trends of commercial fishing as it recovers after major disasters and financial events. These methodologies’ usefulness is applicable in assessing the direct impacts on fisheries and other economic sectors affected by disasters such as major hurricanes, oil spills, massive freshwater intrusion, and harmful algal blooms. Sharing these disaster assessment methods with interested coastal communities and residents, marine-, agricultural- and coastal-related industries, business establishments and organizations, state and federal regulatory agencies, land and sea grant research and extension staff, and interested students, will stimulate improvement in data monitoring, collection, compilation, analysis, and sharing for future damage assessments.