Initial Inoculum and the Severity of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Dose-Response of SARS-CoV-2 Infections
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Mathematical Model
2.2. Measurements
- Peak viral load: The maximum amount of virus is commonly used as an indicator of the transmissibility of an infection [42].
- Time of viral peak: This is the time between the start of the infection and the peak of the virus and can give an indication of how quickly the virus is replicating.
- Viral upslope: Viral upslope is the exponential growth rate of the viral titer before the peak is reached and is another indication of how quickly the virus is spreading from cell to cell.
- Infection duration: The infection duration is indicative of how long an infected patient might test positive for presence of the virus. Note that the threshold used here is 10 virions based on a 10 RNA copies/ml detection threshold for the experimental data [45] that is converted to individual virions.
3. Results
4. Discussion
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ABM | Agent based model |
AUC | Area under the curve |
CUDA | Compute unified device architecture |
MOI | Multiplicity of infection |
ODE | Ordinary differential equation |
PDM | Partial differential equation model |
SARS-CoV-2 | Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 |
SHIV | Simian-human immunodeficiency virus |
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Parameter | Meaning | Value |
---|---|---|
Infection rate | 84.0 | |
Mean eclipse duration | ||
Eclipse shape parameter | 30 | |
Mean infectious lifespan | ||
Infectious shape parameter | 100 | |
Viral production rate | 19,900 | |
Viral clearance rate | 0.00490 | |
Diffusion coefficient |
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Fain, B.; Dobrovolny, H.M. Initial Inoculum and the Severity of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Dose-Response of SARS-CoV-2 Infections. Epidemiologia 2020, 1, 5-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia1010003
Fain B, Dobrovolny HM. Initial Inoculum and the Severity of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Dose-Response of SARS-CoV-2 Infections. Epidemiologia. 2020; 1(1):5-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia1010003
Chicago/Turabian StyleFain, Baylor, and Hana M. Dobrovolny. 2020. "Initial Inoculum and the Severity of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Dose-Response of SARS-CoV-2 Infections" Epidemiologia 1, no. 1: 5-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia1010003