Remote Sensing Monitoring of Degradation and Natural Regeneration of Three Populations of Juniperus turbinata Guss. in Eastern Morocco

Abstract

Juniperus turbinata is an endemic species of the Mediterranean region, recognized for its role in ecological balance. However, concerns have been raised regarding its state of conservation. The objective of this study is twofold: firstly, to assess the rate of degradation of this species in the eastern region of Morocco; and secondly, to monitor the rate of natural regeneration to determine whether this compensates for the rate of degradation. To this end, three populations of red juniper were studied: the littoral (Saidia), the semi-continental (Oued Elhimer) in Jerrada, and the continental (Ich and Abou Lkhel) in Figuig. The first study objective is based on the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) based on satellite images from 1986, 2000, and 2022. The study’s second objective focuses on locating new regenerations of J. turbinata using the Global Positioning System (GPS). The results of this study are alarming, showing a significant loss in the area occupied by J. turbinata in the eastern region of three study sites between 1986 and 2022. The area of J. turbinata matorral decreased by 99.05%, 95.10%, and 89.32% in the coastal, semi-continental, and continental regions of Figuig province, respectively. Regarding the natural regeneration of J. turbinata plants, 121 regenerations were observed along the coast. In the semi-continental region, 27 regenerations were recorded. However, no regeneration was found at the Figuig site. The study reveals that, over the past four decades, the average annual decline J. turbinata in the three regions was 2.62%. Conversely, the average rate of regeneration was recorded as 0.03%. Projections indicate a precipitous decline in the distribution of J. turbinata, with probable extinction of the species in northeastern Morocco.

1. Introduction

Red juniper (Cupressaceae) is a species complex that includes Juniperus phoenicea sensu stricto (s.s.), Juniperus turbinata, and Juniperus canariensis Guyot in Mathou & Guyot [1,2,3,4]. The taxonomic distinctions between J. phoenicea, J. turbinata, and J. canariensis may be attributable to their divergent evolutionary histories since diverging from their common ancestor during the Oligocene epoch [5]. Native to the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions [6], this Tertiary relic is primarily limited in its distribution by abiotic factors—such as temperature extremes ranging from −10 to 40 °C [3,7,8,9,10,11]—and by biotic interactions, including constraints on seed dispersal capacity [12,13,14,15]. J. turbinata, in particular, stands out for its unique characteristics and role as a pioneer species in challenging environments.

Juniperus species have been observed to exhibit characteristics of pioneer species [16,17], often acting as such in the advanced stages of degradation of Quercus ilex. Forests [18]. Furthermore, these species have been observed to thrive in less competitive environments, including maritime dunes situated at altitudes of 50 m or more and limestone rocky mountains at elevations exceeding 2000 m [18,19,20,21,22].

J. turbinata is a species that occurs in Morocco on the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts and in the Atlas Mountains [23,24]. It has been observed to exhibit monoecious and dioecious characteristics, as evidenced by studies conducted by Coste [25] and Rameau [26]. It is regarded as a primitive trait within the Cupressaceae [27]. J. turbinata is distinguished by its extremely slow growth rate [28], but it is also renowned for its remarkable longevity, which exceeds 1500 years [29]. J. turbinata plays a pivotal role in the composition of dune and rocky mountain ecosystems. Its capacity to stabilize the soil and create favourable microclimates for the growth of other plants renders it an essential pioneer species in these often-inhospitable environments. In dunes, where winds can be strong and the soil unstable, the species acts as a natural bulwark, reducing soil erosion and creating more favourable conditions for other plant species to colonize [30]. A similar function is observed in alpine environments, where extreme conditions, characterized by significant temperature variations (diurnal and nocturnal), scarcity of precipitation, and soils that are not conducive to plant growth, are also addressed by J. turbinata through the creation of sheltered microclimates and soil stabilization via root systems [30]. These ecological dynamics are best understood when situated within the three distinct geographical contexts where J. turbinata occurs in eastern Morocco: coastal dunes, mountain areas, and high plateaus. Coastal dunes are dynamic environments formed at the interface between land and sea, shaped by wind, wave action, and vegetation [31]. They are particularly sensitive to disturbance, but play a vital role in coastal protection and biodiversity support. Mountain regions, such as those in the Middle Atlas, are ecologically rich but fragile systems characterized by steep slopes and variable climatic conditions [32]. High plateaus, including those near Jerrada, are defined by undulating reliefs and semi-arid climates, supporting important yet vulnerable ecological and agricultural functions [33]. While these environments differ markedly in physical structure and climatic conditions, they all impose strong constraints on plant survival and regeneration, particularly under increasing environmental stress. Despite its ecological significance, J. turbinata remains vulnerable to human activities, particularly in eastern Morocco, where unsustainable practices have accelerated habitat loss [22,34,35,36,37].

Furthermore, J. turbinata, like all species within its genus, exhibits a remarkably low germination rate in its natural state [38]. Climate change has further compounded this issue over the past two decades. A decline in the production of galls has been observed in drought years [39], and the resilience of new regeneration to extreme weather conditions is questionable. A substantial increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall have led to increasingly hostile environmental conditions for J. turbinata. The combination of prolonged drought and increasingly frequent and intense heat waves poses a substantial challenge to the resilience of these trees. Water stress and alterations in growth cycles disrupt the natural regeneration of populations, making it challenging to maintain their longevity. A study revealed that the forests of Spanish juniper (J. thurifera), a related species, experienced a loss of 6.18 km² of forest cover between 1986 and 2022 in the High Atlas region of Morocco, with a very low natural regeneration rate. Although these data concern a different species, they illustrate the similar pressures that J. turbinata may be facing [40].

The objective of this study is to analyze the regeneration dynamics of J. turbinata in the eastern region of Morocco in relation to environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Specifically, we assess the level of stand degradation and natural regeneration capacity across three distinct geographical contexts. This analysis aims to determine whether the current populations are capable of persisting over the long term. We propose the following hypotheses: (I) natural regeneration is lower in areas subject to high anthropogenic pressure; and (II) stands located in more arid environments exhibit slower regeneration dynamics compared to those in semi-humid conditions. The results of this study will support the development of targeted conservation strategies and promote sustainable management, emphasizing the ecological importance of these relict populations.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

The geographical area under consideration is located in Morocco’s eastern region and comprises three distinct sites (Figure 1).

2.1.1. First Site: Littoral (Municipality of Saidia; Province of Berkane)

This site encompasses an area of 811 hectares, extending along the coastal dunes of Saidia. A portion of this site was inventoried in 1996 as part of Morocco’s Master Plan for Protected Areas and classified as a Site of Biological and Ecological Interest (SIBE). In 2005, it was designated as a Ramsar site by the authors of [41]. The coastal site is located at an average altitude of 57.15 ± 2.23 m (

Table 1. The locations of the three study sites.

Site	Municipality	Province	Latitude	Longitude	Altitude	Distance from Sea
Littoral	Saidia	Berkane	35.09363763 35.11514601	−2.25636434 −2.32276416	57.15 ± 2.23 m	0.1 km
Semi-continental	Oued Elhimer	Jerada	34.42172189 34.41777578	−1.88995441 −1.88019053	1094.35 ± 26.855 m	90 km
Continental	Abou Lkhel et Ich	Figuig	32.47337315 32.46864492	−1.08276935 −1.08440128	1645.45 ± 102.46 m	400 km

). The ecosystem is dominated by J. turbinata Guss. of various ages, forming a variable density over a distance of 7 km. Approximately 40% of the sandy soil is covered with eucalyptus, parts of which were planted in 1951 and 1970. The plant species present include Pistacia lentiscus, Chamaerops humilis, Ephedra, Retama monosperma, Limbarda crithmoides, Limonium, Lycium intricatum, and Tamarix.

2.1.2. Second Site: Semi-Continental (Oued El Himer Commune; Jerada Province)

This site covers an area of 18,900 hectares in the heart of the high plateaux of eastern Morocco, at an average altitude of 1094.35 ± 26.855 m (Table 1). The vegetation is dominated by trees such as J. oxycedrus, Tetraclinis articulata, and J. turbinata, forming a low density of trees over an area of 2 km. Around 30% of the clay soil is covered by vegetation. At the same time, a significant part has recently been reforested under the supervision of the Agence Nationale des Eaux et Forêts (ANEF) with Pinus halepensis. Stipa tenacissima dominates the rest of the site.

2.1.3. Third Site: Continental (Municipality of Ich and Municipality of Abou Lkhel; Province of Figuig)

This site extends over 1,688,189 hectares in the Saharan Anti-Atlas Mountains of southeastern Morocco, at an average altitude of 1645.45 ± 102.46 m (Table 1). The vegetation is dominated by species such as Pistacia atlantica, J. turbinata, and Rosmarinus officinalis, with a variable tree density over a distance of 3 km. It is important to note that access to this location is strictly regulated and requires explicit authorisation from the Royal Armed Forces (FAR), given its proximity to the Moroccan–Algerian border. The rocky surface is covered by vegetation in less than 10% of the area, and the site is also home to species such as Stipa tenacissima. and Thymus vulgaris.

2.2. Satellite Images

Satellite imagery was used to map J. turbinata degradation rates and contributing factors using ARC-GIS software 10.4.1. The analysis monitored the total vegetation cover in three regions, utilizing Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey database https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/ (accessed on 10 October 2023).

Datasets included Landsat 4 and 5 TM C2 Level 1 imagery (90 m resolution) and Landsat 8 and 9 OLI/TIRS C2 Level 1 imagery (30 m resolution), acquired simultaneously from the same location (

Table 2. Satellite image data.

	Acquisition Date	Resolution	Cloud
Landsat 4–5	10 October 2023	90 m *	Less than 5%
Landsat 8–9	15 October 2023	30 m	Less than 5%

* Note: Landsat 4–5 imagery was resampled to 30 m for NDVI analysis, despite nominal coarser resolution.

). Images were downloaded from the USGS EROS Centre via the Global Visualization Viewer portal https://glovis.usgs.gov/app/ (accessed on 10 and 15 October 2023).

To harmonize the datasets spatially, all images were resampled to a common 30 m grid, minimizing geometric distortion and facilitating consistent multi-temporal analysis. Despite slight sensor differences, this resampling process ensured alignment and comparability across time and missions.

For topographic correction, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model at 30 m resolution was used. Although Landsat 4–5 data have a native spatial resolution of 90 m, the 30 m SRTM DEM provided sufficient detail to account for terrain-induced illumination variations, given the moderate relief of the study area [42].

All Landsat images—from sensors 4 to 9—were acquired as Collection 2, Level 1 products and processed to Analysis Ready Data (ARD) standards by the USGS, ensuring consistent geometric and radiometric corrections. This harmonization supported reliable multi-temporal NDVI analysis by minimizing spatial discrepancies between the older (Landsat 4–5) and newer (Landsat 8–9) missions [43].

NDVI calculations used sensor-specific bands, and all products were generated at 30 m spatial resolution to maintain consistency throughout the time series. This approach ensured accurate detection of changes in J. turbinata vegetation cover over time.

The data collected were used to create maps to monitor the decline of J. turbinata matorral using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). These maps highlight the potential causes and characteristics associated with this decline. Thy show the presence and intensity of vegetation in the selected study area, calculated from the combined bands of Landsat images at different altitudes.

There are different methods for assessing the vegetation vigour index, depending on the satisfactory resolution of the data and the level of detail required [44]. However, for our purposes and simplicity, we have used the NDVI in its most widely recognized form for a similar (uniform) land background [45,46]. The NDVI is a measure of vegetation vigour that accurately indicates photosynthetically active biomass. It is simply defined by the following equation:

$$\mathrm{NDVI}={\displaystyle \frac{\left(\mathsf{\lambda }\mathrm{NIR} - \mathsf{\lambda }\mathrm{R}\right)}{\left(\mathsf{\lambda }\mathrm{NIR} + \mathsf{\lambda }\mathrm{R}\right)}}$$

(1)

Understanding the significance of the surface spectral reflectance in the near-infrared (0.7 to 1.1 μm) and visible red (0.6 to 0.7 μm) bands of the electromagnetic spectrum, represented by λNIR and λR, is crucial in our research on the decline and regeneration of J. turbinata in Morocco.

The data normalization process, meticulously carried out using Equation (1) to fall within the range of (1), ensured the accuracy and reliability of our comparisons between images taken under different lighting conditions. The spectral reflectance of green vegetation, which depends mainly on the wavelength, is a key factor in our research.

However, when conditions are not conducive to vegetation growth or when the plant’s chlorophyll production is low, absorption in the visible part of the spectrum is reduced, which can lead to a yellow or red appearance of the plant’s leaves, similar to autumnal senescence [33,47].

This variation locally affects NDVI values, thus reflecting stress or a decline in vegetation. Equation (1) therefore allows for not only normalization of lighting differences, but also detection of these important physiological variations in plant biomass [47].

Calculating NDVI from calibrated Landsat data is essential to correct errors related to sensor parameters (gain and offset), as well as atmospheric and topographic effects. Using metadata information, Equation (1) was applied with bands B3 (λNIR) and B4 (λR) for Landsat 4–5 [48], and B4 (λNIR) and B5 (λR) for Landsat 8–9, with the resulting NDVI values colour-coded to highlight changes in the state and decline of J. turbinata matorral in northeastern Morocco [49].

Although ENVI software 5.5.2 was used for NDVI processing, atmospheric correction tools such as FLAASH or QUAC were not applied, as the study did not involve land cover classification or radiometric analyses requiring absolute surface reflectance values. The analysis was based on calibrated Landsat data, which provided sufficient consistency for temporal NDVI comparison.

2.3. Location of New Regeneration

Young seedlings, less than 10 years old, with a height of less than 20 cm and a stem diameter of less than 3 cm, were carefully identified during field surveys. These young shoots, characterized by leaves entirely in the form of needles, testify to an early stage of development of J. turbinata, an essential indicator of the natural regeneration of this species [50,51,52]. Each seedling was precisely geolocated using a GPS receiver integrated with the mobile application “MOBILE TOPOGRAPHY” [53], a technology that not only marks sampling points, but also collects spatial data in real time [54]. This makes it possible to track their distribution across all the study sites. This method allows for a more detailed analysis of seedling distribution and mapping of active regeneration zones. The data can then be used to assess the effectiveness of natural regeneration processes and formulate conservation strategies adapted to local conditions.

3. Results

Using the NDVI results obtained, three comparisons were made to assess the extent of J. turbinata decline in the three selected study sites.

These comparisons provided a basis for capturing variation in vegetation cover and accurately identifying the areas most affected by this species’ decline. Our aim was not only to map these affected areas, but also to identify the specific periods when this decline was most pronounced, so that we could link these trends to potential causes.

Using NDVI data, we analyzed changes in plant density and estimated the condition [53] and vitality of J. turbinata stands at each study site. This comparative approach allowed us to infer trends in the degradation of this species and identify environmental or anthropogenic factors that may have contributed to its decline. Specifically, NDVI values ranged from 0.15 to 0.45, with higher values (>0.35) indicating dense and healthy vegetation, while lower values (<0.25) were associated with degraded or sparse stands. These thresholds allowed us to spatially differentiate well-preserved habitats from those under ecological stress.

The results are divided into three parts, each corresponding to a different period:

The first part deals with the dynamics of the three populations between 1986 and 2000.

The second part deals with the dynamics of the same populations between 2000 and 2022.

The last part is a summary covering the period from 1986 to 2022.

We then accurately counted new J. turbinata regenerations less than 10 years old in the three study sites. For each site, we carried out a careful assessment to identify and count these young seedlings.

We estimated the total area covered by these new regenerations in parallel with the count. We measured the area occupied by seedlings in quadrats of defined dimensions, which we then extrapolated to obtain an estimate of the total area covered within each site.

Quadrat extrapolation was performed by systematically sampling fixed-area plots (quadrats) within each study zone. In each quadrat, the number of J. turbinata individuals was counted and their ground coverage estimated. These local measurements were then extrapolated to the entire area of the zone by multiplying the average density and coverage per quadrat by the total surface area of the respective zone. This sampling method allowed for a representative estimation of population size and coverage, accounting for spatial variability within each study site.

3.1. Assessment of the Degradation of Three Juniper Forests in the Eastern Region of Morocco

3.1.1. Population Dynamics Between 1986 and 2000

The study covers an area of 18,811 hectares on the coast, from the former town of Saïdia to the Moulouya river. In 1986, Saïdia was a small coastal village with a very limited population, which explains the vast extent of the Saïdia matorral, which covers 981.9 hectares and mainly consists of J. turbinata trees. This area was reduced to 375.75 hectares in 2000 due to urban expansion—specifically, the construction of residential and commercial buildings caused a decrease of 61.74% in 14 years.

The situation in the semi-continental zone, in the highlands of eastern Morocco, is the most worrying of the three zones studied in this time period. Over 18,900 hectares, the Juniperus forest is in severe decline, a trend that, if not addressed, could lead to significant ecological imbalance. In 1986, the area occupied by J. turbinata was 704.25 hectares, but in 2000, it was only 66.33 hectares, a reduction of 90.59%.

In the continental mountains, J. turbinata is in steady decline. In 1986, the area colonized by J. turbinata was 15,067.35 ha, out of a total surveyed area of 1,688,189 ha. This area decreased to 3755.07 ha in 2000, representing a degradation rate of 75.08% in 14 years in this zone (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4 and

Table 3. Changes in juniper plantation area between 1986 and 2000 (in hectares).

Study Area	Area in 1986 in Hectares	Area in 2000 in Hectares
Littoral	981.9	375.75
Semi-continental	704.25	66.33
Continental	15,067	3755.07

).

3.1.2. Population Dynamics Between 2000 and 2022

The urban expansion of the town of Saidia continues to have a devastating impact on biodiversity, particularly on the J. turbinata scrub. There has been a massive reduction of 97.52% in the area occupied by red juniper in the scrub, leaving only 9.27 hectares covered by these trees (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4 and

Table 4. Changes in juniper plantation area between 2000 and 2022 (in hectares).

Study Area	Area in 2000 in Hectares	Area in 2022 in Hectares
Littoral	375.75	9.27
Semi-continental	66.33	34.57
Continental	3755.07	1609.92

), now fragmented into several discontinuous patches. Much of this residual area is threatened by the upcoming phases of the Azur Plan, initiated in 2003, which has led to the construction of a vast 713-hectare seaside resort extending along 6 km of coastline. These ongoing projects are significantly exacerbating the degradation of the last J. turbinata habitats.

In the semi-continental area, a complex web of factors, including land reclamation, overexploitation, and overgrazing, continues to threaten J. turbinata populations. This has resulted in a 47.89% decrease in the area occupied by these trees, leaving only 34.57 ha currently occupied by Juniperus (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4 and Table 4).

In the continental region, the long-term impact of high demand for firewood and timber, combined with goat overgrazing, has led to a steady decline in J. turbinata populations between 2000 and 2022. The area colonized by Juniperus decreased from 3755.07 ha in 2000 to less than 1609.92 ha in 2022 (Table 4), representing a significant decline rate of 57.15% (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4 and Table 4).

3.1.3. A Detailed Assessment of the Dynamics Between 1986 and 2022

A detailed assessment of the rate of decline was carried out over about 36 years, covering all three study sites (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4, and

Table 5. Changes in juniper plantation area between 1986 and 2022 (in hectares).

Study Area	Area in 1986 (ha)	Area in 2022 (ha)	Decline (%)
Littoral	981.9	9.27	99.05
Semi-continental	704.25	34.57	95.09
Continental	15,067.35	1609.92	89.31

).

Degradation trends were consistent across all study zones (Figure 3), with losses exceeding 89% between 1986 and 2022. Despite initial differences in area, this similarity highlights the systemic impact of anthropogenic pressures—such as deforestation, overgrazing, and tourism development—driving ecosystem instability and biodiversity loss, regardless of the zones’ original ecological conditions.

Coastal populations have suffered the most, with a dramatic reduction of 99.05% of the J. turbinata matorral (Figure 3). The semi-continental site also experienced severe degradation, losing 95.09% of its juniper cover. Although continental populations of J. turbinata were relatively well preserved, they still underwent a significant decline of 89.31%. Most of this degradation occurred prior to the establishment of restricted access. To limit further disturbances, the Moroccan Royal Armed Forces created a buffer zone between the Révrins population and the Morocco–Algeria border in the Figuig region, restricting local residents’ movements near the border. This protective measure is particularly beneficial for the continental population, which occupies a large part of the buffer zone. Compared to other study areas, where anthropogenic pressures remain higher, this initiative promotes the conservation and natural regeneration of the stands by reducing human disturbances and grazing, thereby helping to slow down the degradation rate in this region.

Given the ongoing pressure and the scale of habitat loss, particularly in areas targeted by tourism and urban development, urgent conservation measures are needed to prevent irreversible damage.

3.2. Natural Regeneration

Natural Regeneration of Juniperus

Natural regeneration, whether from seeds or vegetatively, was identified during field trips to the three study sites. The seedlings recorded were less than 10 years old and less than 20 cm tall, with a trunk diameter of no more than 3 cm and entirely needle-like leaves.

New seedlings can develop more easily on the coast than in the other two study sites, due to the cooler, wetter climate and extensive tree cover. This resilience is evident in the 121 new seedlings found (Figure 5 and Figure 6) over an area of 9.27 ha, an average of 1.3 (new seedlings) per ha per year.

In the semi-continental region, where trees are scattered and widely spaced, 27 regenerations were established over 34.57 hectares (Figure 6), indicating a very low rate of natural regeneration. In contrast, no new regeneration was observed in the continental region, which is characterized by particularly extreme climatic conditions. Adverse environmental factors—especially prolonged drought (Figure S1) (with very low annual rainfall since 2010) and intense summer heatwaves—appear to compromise tree survival and reproductive capacity. This situation has led to a noticeable reduction in forest cover (Figure 5) and a decline in flowering, significantly limiting seed production and natural regeneration.

Seedling regeneration was highly limited across all sites. In the coastal zone, 121 seedlings were recorded over 9 hectares (~13.4 individuals/ha), and in the semi-continental zone, 27 seedlings were observed over 33 hectares (~0.82 individuals/ha). No regeneration was detected in the continental zone, despite its extensive area (0 seedlings over 1600 hectares).

4. Discussion

4.1. Assessment of the Rate of Degradation of J. turbinata in the Eastern Region of Morocco

4.1.1. Coastal Populations

The impact of urbanization is mainly manifested in the coastal zone of our study, while other sites located in regions far from urban centres remain relatively unaffected. The town of Saïdia, nicknamed the “blue pearl” for its 7 km of sandy coastline, experienced a significant increase in population after 1982. This demographic growth is attributed to the rural exodus caused by the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s [54], and to the acceleration of urban expansion [55,56]. Between 1986 and 2000, these dynamics led to the loss of 606.15 ha of forest or 61.73% of the region’s forest cover.

Subsequently, Saïdia was included in the national “Plan Azur” programme, which aimed to boost tourism in Morocco by developing six seaside resorts: five on the Atlantic coast and one on the Mediterranean coast. Launched as part of the “Vision 2010” strategy, the project aims to attract 10 million tourists annually [57]. Work began in 2003 on the New Touristic Station of Saïdia (NTSS), a vast seaside resort covering 713 hectares of coastline, with a 6 km promenade [58].

This complex, the largest of the six Plan Azur projects, includes a marina, eight luxury hotels, over 2545 villas and apartments, and three 18-hole golf courses [57,58,59]. As part of this development, the FADESA Maroc Group signed an agreement on 27 August 2003 to protect the environment and, in particular, to preserve the coastal dunes, as stipulated in Article 3-3 of the November 2003 urban development specifications [34,35]. When this forested area was handed over to developers, National Water and Forestry Agency Officials asked that this fragile area be developed with care, while accepting some light development [35]. Unfortunately, the construction of hotels, a corniche and “beach clubs” on the dunes and at the top of the beach has caused considerable damage to the plant cover of the coastal forest [22,35]. Once dense and covering an area of 12 km², this Juniper area between Saïdia and the mouth of the Moulouya, a site of biological and ecological interest, was naturally home to J. turbinata. These trees were associated with eucalyptus and Aleppo pine, which were the subject of reforestation campaigns in 1951 and 1970.

However, deforestation due to real estate and tourism projects has resulted in a loss of 97.53% of this forest, or 366.48 hectares.

A similar study by Sbai [60] found a 72.86% reduction in Saïdia’s coastal forest between 1958 and 2018. At the same time, the urban area increased by 533.33% over the same period, reflecting intense urbanization. This urbanization is mainly due to demographic growth, with the population more than tripling from 2410 inhabitants in 1994 to 7.567 in 2014, representing an annual growth rate of 8.89% [61].

4.1.2. Semi-Continental Population

In the semi-continental highlands of Jerrada, the J. turbinata and J. oxycedrus formations are undergoing rapid degradation, mainly due to the conversion of forest land into farmland. In an attempt to expand their farms in the context of limited resources, local farmers are clearing these forests to create arable land. This practice has directly destroyed J. turbinata stands, exacerbating natural habitat fragmentation and threatening local biodiversity [62]. Between 1986 and 2000, this conversion resulted in the loss of 637.92 ha of forest.

In addition, since the 2000s, there has been a sharp increase in demand for sheep and goat breeds specific to this region, due to their adaptation to semi-arid conditions and their economic importance to local people. This increased demand has led to a significant expansion of flocks and increased pressure on natural resources, particularly J. turbinata forests [63]. Between 2000 and 2022, this increase in flocks led to massive overgrazing [64], causing severe destruction of vegetation and seriously compromising the natural regeneration capacity of the forests [65]. More than 31 hectares of these forest formations have been lost to overexploitation.

Goat herds caused particularly severe damage by grazing young shoots, galls, and lower branches of trees [66], thus disrupting the reproductive cycle of the species. This has accelerated degradation, leading to a critical reduction in forest cover between 2000 and 2022. The uncontrolled expansion of herds, without adequate management of pastoral resources, has exacerbated ecological damage in the region [67].

4.1.3. Continental Populations

The situation in the continental mountain region of Figuig is particularly alarming. J. turbinata, the only significant forest resource for the riparian population, is under severe threat from the combined effects of overgrazing, intensive wood harvesting, and climate change [68,69]. Overgrazing by local goat herds represents one of the most destructive pressures in the region. These animals consume both the cones and young shoots of J. turbinata, thereby blocking its natural regeneration [66]. Simultaneously, the local population relies heavily on the species for fuel and construction material, particularly during the cold winter months, contributing further to forest degradation [70]. These anthropogenic pressures resulted in a documented loss of 925.47 hectares of J. turbinata forest between 1986 and 2000 in the eastern High Atlas.

Climate change has further intensified this degradation. In recent years, prolonged droughts and elevated temperatures have caused significant dieback in J. turbinata stands, drastically limiting the species’ capacity for natural regeneration [69]. This vulnerability is amplified by the species’ shallow root system, which restricts access to deeper soil moisture and makes it highly susceptible to water stress during the hottest months [71]. As a result, surface water is rapidly depleted, and direct evaporation increases, accelerating the drying of these fragile ecosystems. Although J. turbinata is known for its hardiness and capacity to tolerate extreme drought [72,73,74], the cumulative impacts of grazing, wood extraction, and climatic stress are overwhelming its resilience.

Between 2000 and 2022, J. turbinata cover in the region decreased by 1963.41 hectares, illustrating the scale of degradation and underscoring the urgent need for conservation interventions.

4.2. Monitoring the Rate of Natural Regeneration of J. turbinata Populations in the Eastern Region

In the coastal city of Saïdia, the situation is urgent. Rapid urbanization is leading to the destruction of coastal habitats. Numerous access roads to Saïdia beach have been opened up in the Saïdia coastal J. turbinata grove, allowing quads to circulate and summer visitors to pass by on foot. However, a large part of the coastline is inaccessible because of the campsites and hotels on the seafront, forcing visitors to cross the forest. This leads to the trampling of new regeneration and disrupts the natural regeneration dynamic, a leading cause of severe impacts on the regeneration of coastal J. turbinata populations [22]. These anthropogenic disturbances, particularly recreational tourism, directly contribute to mechanical damage to seedlings and soil compaction, hindering seedling emergence and establishment. A total of 121 new regenerations were recorded, averaging 1.3 regenerations per hectare per year. By comparing this with our 2022 results [22], when 113 regenerations were observed, representing an average of 1.25 regenerations per hectare per year, we can assess the evolution of regeneration dynamics. Regenerations were quantified using sampling plots of fixed surface area (50 m²), evenly distributed across the study zones. Within each plot, all individuals under 50 cm in height were recorded, allowing for standardized comparisons between regions. A 20-year-old J. turbinata tree covers around 3 m², contributing to a total surface area of 363 m², representing only 0.009% of the area’s vegetation cover.

Although continental zones are often associated with better-preserved forest cover due to reduced human disturbance, natural regeneration of J. turbinata appears to be more viable in the coastal region. This can be attributed primarily to the humid and temperate climate, which promotes flowering and cone production, leading to a higher availability of viable seeds. Moreover, the moderate environmental conditions along the coast enhance seedling survival, especially during the early stages of development. Another contributing factor is the limited grazing pressure in this area, which reduces damage to young regenerating individuals and increases their chances of establishment and growth.

In semi-continental and continental zones, high summer temperatures, combined with high solar radiation and water deficit (low soil water availability), directly negatively affect Phoenician juniper growth and water use, limiting carbon assimilation [74]. Unlike the anthropogenic disturbances observed in Saïdia, these climatic factors—particularly prolonged droughts and heatwaves—trigger physiological stress responses in plants, which hinder reproduction and seedling establishment. This stress occurs when plants are exposed to extreme conditions such as heat or drought [75], weakening the function of photosynthetic organs, disrupting biomass production, and consequently affecting the plant’s carbon footprint [76]. This explains the reduction in leaf area, the partial or total absence of fertilized female cones, and the sex changes observed, with a predominance of male cones in most trees [39].

In the semi-continental region of Oued El Himer, 27 regenerations were recorded, an average of 0.04 plants per hectare per year. A 20-year-old tree covers approximately 3 m², representing only 0.001% of the total plant cover of this regeneration over 20 years. No regeneration was observed at the Figuig site.

Red juniper seeds are difficult to germinate [77,78], as are those of other Juniperus species [78]. This low germination capacity [79] is explained by a thick, impermeable, resinous integument, embryonic immaturity, and dormancy [80,81]. In addition, the embryo can sometimes not develop the radicle due to a physiological inhibition mechanism [48,82]. On the other hand, this situation can be explained by the probable limitation of seed dispersal factors that allow for a wide distribution of stands. This observation is well illustrated by the study carried out by Elmalki [81], who reported that the maximum seed dispersal distance does not exceed 30 m for Phoenician juniper, Spanish juniper, and spiny juniper [75]. In addition to degradation, red juniper forests are threatened with extinction due to low or non-existent natural regeneration. However, this species is neglected by foresters in reforestation programmes because it is a very slow-growing secondary species with complex natural regeneration, and its seeds practically never germinate in nurseries [81]. In the Alborz Mountains of Iran, regeneration of J. polycarpos was found to be low [48]. Similarly, in the Three Rivers headwaters region of Qinghai Province, China, the average regeneration densities for J. tibetica, J. przewalskii, and J. convallium were 332, 279, and 202 individuals per hectare, respectively [82]. In contrast, our study recorded much lower regeneration numbers, which may be attributed to both species-specific characteristics and regional environmental conditions [46].

This dynamic of overexploitation has severe ecological consequences. The local deforestation caused by these practices disrupts ecosystem structure, alters biological interactions, and reduces biodiversity, affecting J. turbinata populations and other species that depend on this habitat. Fragmentation of J. turbinata plant formations reduces connectivity between populations, reducing gene flow and increasing the risk of local extinction in the medium-to-long term.

This study found an alarming imbalance. The average annual degradation rate of the area occupied by J. turbinata in eastern Morocco is 2.62%. At the same time, the regeneration rate is only 0.003%, which is extremely low compared to the degradation rate. These results highlight the severity of the situation and the urgent need for conservation efforts.

With the prospect of global climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall, the rehabilitation of populations is becoming a matter of urgency. This requires developing and mastering appropriate techniques to promote seed germination, produce quality seedlings in the nursery, and ensure successful planting in the field. The potential impact of these changes on J. turbinata populations is significant, underscoring the need for immediate action.

5. Conclusions

In eastern Morocco, J. turbinata faces escalating threats across its range, driven by region-specific pressures:

Coastal Saïdia: Rapid urbanization and tourism infrastructure have decimated 99.05% of coastal juniper habitats, with trampling and habitat fragmentation crippling natural regeneration.

Jerrada Highlands: Agricultural expansion and unsustainable goat herding have degraded 95.09% of semi-continental stands, with overgrazing suppressing seedling survival.

Figuig Mountains: Climate-driven droughts and overexploitation for firewood have reduced continental populations by 89.31%, with no observed regeneration in recent decades.

The alarming imbalance between annual degradation (2.62%) and natural regeneration (0.003%) underscores the species’ precarious trajectory. Without intervention, J. turbinata risks functional extinction in critical ecosystems.

Strategic Recommendations for Conservation:

• Habitat Protection:

Enforce buffer zones in Saïdia’s remaining forests and integrate juniper conservation into Morocco’s “Plan Azur” tourism framework. Restrict goat grazing in Jerrada during seedling seasons and promote agroforestry to reduce farmland encroachment.

2.

Assisted Regeneration:

Invest in seed scarification techniques to overcome dormancy barriers [74] and establish nurseries for drought-resistant seedlings.

Pilot community-led reforestation in Figuig, leveraging traditional knowledge and alternative fuel sources to reduce wood dependency.

3.

Policy and Monitoring:

List J. turbinata under Morocco’s protected species legislation and allocate funds for long-term monitoring.

Develop climate-resilience models to prioritize zones for intervention under IPCC drought scenarios.

This study highlights the urgency of bridging ecological research with actionable policy. The survival of J. turbinata hinges on coordinated efforts that address both anthropogenic pressures and climatic challenges, ensuring the persistence of a keystone species that is vital to Mediterranean biodiversity.