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Meteorology, Volume 1, Issue 3 (September 2022) – 6 articles

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14 pages, 11664 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Upper Ocean Thermal Field Metrics Dataset

by Charles R. Sampson, James Cummings, John A. Knaff, Mark DeMaria and Efren A. Serra

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 327-340; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030021 - 1 Sep 2022

Viewed by 1983

Abstract

The upper ocean provides a source of thermal energy for tropical cyclone development and maintenance through a series of complex interactions. In this work, we develop a seventeen-year dataset of upper ocean thermal field metrics for use in tropical cyclone studies and development of tropical cyclone intensity prediction models. These metrics include the surface temperature, two different measures of vertically integrated heat content, and four different measures of vertically averaged temperature. Some metrics have been used to study upper-ocean energy response to tropical cyclone passage, while others have been employed to improve operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction models. The vertically integrated ocean heat content has been used to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts at U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers and is an integral part of several operational intensity forecast models. A static 2005–2021 dataset that includes all twelve metrics described within is available on the Naval Research Laboratory web server, and a subset of six metrics have been produced in real-time at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and provided to the public via the GODAE server since 2021. Full article

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16 pages, 5106 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Wind Predictions in the Lower Stratosphere: State of the Art and Application of the COSMO Limited Area Model

by Edoardo Bucchignani

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 311-326; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030020 - 29 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2275

Abstract

In the last few decades there has been increasing interest in the commercial usage of the stratosphere, especially for Earth observation systems. Stratospheric platforms allow Earth monitoring at a regional scale with persistency toward a limited area. For this reason, accurate meteorological forecasts are needed in order to guarantee stationarity. The main aim of this work is to provide a review of wind prediction techniques in the stratosphere, achieved by the most popular global models, such as ECMWF IFS, NCEP GFS and ICON. Then, the capabilities of the COSMO limited area model to reproduce the wind speed in the stratosphere are evaluated considering a model configuration with very high resolution (about 1 km) over a domain located in Southern Italy, assuming the radio sounding data at Pratica di Mare airport as the reference. Vertical profiles were analyzed for selected days, highlighting good performances, though improvements can be achieved by adopting a fifth-order interpolation of the model data. Finally, monthly wind speed time series for selected heights were post-processed by means of fast Fourier transform, revealing the existence of main frequencies and the presence of a scaling regime and a power law of the form f^−β over a broad range of time scales, in the Fourier space. The exponent spectral β is close to the exact 5/3 Kolmogorov value for all the datasets. Full article

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23 pages, 13458 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

Theoretical Studies on the Motions of Cloud and Precipitation Particles—A Review

by Pao K. Wang

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 288-310; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030019 - 22 Aug 2022

Viewed by 2257

Abstract

The theoretical studies on the flow fields around falling cloud and precipitation particles are briefly reviewed. The hydrodynamics of these particles, collectively called hydrometeors, are of central importance to cloud development and dissipation, which impact both the short-term weather and long-term climate processes. This review focuses on the solutions of the appropriate Navier–Stokes equations around the falling hydrometeor, particularly those obtained by numerical methods. The hydrometeors reviewed here include cloud drops, raindrops, cloud ice crystals, snow aggregates, conical graupel, and smooth and lobed hailstones. The review is made largely in chronological order so that readers can obtain a sense of how the research in this field has progressed over time. Although this review focuses on theoretical studies, brief summaries of laboratory experiments and field observations on this subject are also provided so as to substantiate the calculation results. An outlook is given at the end to describe future works necessary to improve our knowledge in this area. Full article

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14 pages, 69809 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Validation of Precipitation Type Forecasts Based on ECMWF’s Ensemble Model for Hungary

by Dóra Cséke and István Ihász

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 274-287; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030018 - 9 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2470

Abstract

Forecasts of precipitation type are of high priority, as they have a large influence on human safety, the economy and the environment. In recent decades, methods of statistical post-processing of numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs were only applied beside the experience of the operational forecasters. In the last few years, numerical models developed significantly; thus, precipitation type has become a variable directly calculated in some models. In the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) integrated forecast system (IFS) model, a new method has been used since 2015 to predict the type of precipitation. In this study, we examine the forecast of the ECMWF IFS ensemble model concerning precipitation type through ensemble verification and a case study on a freezing-rain situation for the territory of Hungary. We put emphasis on the investigation of the usability of ensemble forecasts. We introduce the developed forms of visualization supporting the interpretation of ensemble precipitation-type forecasts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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20 pages, 24607 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Process Studies of the Impact of Land-Surface Resolution on Convective Precipitation Based on High-Resolution ICON Simulations

by Shweta Singh and Norbert Kalthoff

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 254-273; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030017 - 31 Jul 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1769

Abstract

This study investigated the relevant processes responsible for differences of convective precipitation caused by land-surface resolution. The simulations were performed with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) with grid spacing of 156 m and Large Eddy Simulation physics. Regions of different orographic complexity, days with weak synoptic forcing and favourable convective conditions were selected. The resolution of land-surface properties (soil type, vegetation) and/or the orography was reduced from 156 to 5000 m. Analyses are based on backward trajectories (Lagrangian Analysis Tool (LAGRANTO)), heat budget and convective organisation potential (COP) calculations. On average, the relative difference of areal mean daily precipitation at 1250 and 5000 m land-surface resolutions compared to 156 m were 6% and 15%, respectively. No consistent dependency of precipitation on orography or land-surface properties was found. Both factors impact convective initiation over areas with embedded mesoscale-sized land-surface heterogeneities. The position of convective precipitation was often influenced by the resolution of orography. Coarsening from 156 to 5000 m considerably changed the location of wind convergence and associated convection initiation. It also affects the onset times of clouds (<20 min) and precipitation (≈1 h). Cloud aggregation and microphysical processes proved to be important for further development towards convective precipitation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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23 pages, 5561 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Probabilistic Evaluation of the Multicategory Seasonal Precipitation Re-Forecast

by Yiwen Xu

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 231-253; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030016 - 13 Jul 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2142

Abstract

The Meteo-France seasonal forecasting system 7 provides a 7-month forecast range with 25 ensembles. The seasonal precipitation re-forecast (from May to November 1993–2015) was evaluated by the Brier score in terms of accuracy and reliability based on tercile probabilities. Multiple analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the score. These results show that the spatial distribution of the Brier score depends significantly on tercile thresholds, reference data, sampling methods, and ensemble types. Large probabilistic errors over the dry regions on land and the Nino regions in the Pacific can be reduced by adjusting the tercile thresholds. The forecast errors were identified when they were insensitive to different analysis methods. All the analyses detected that the errors increase/decrease with the lead time over the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean. The intra-seasonal analysis reveals that some of these errors are inherited from monthly forecasts, which may be related to large-scale, short-term variability modes. A new confidence interval calculation was formulated for the “uncertain” case in the reference data. The confidence interval at a 95% level for the mean Brier score over the entire tropical region was quantified. The best estimations are ~6% the mean Brier score for both the above and below-normal terciles. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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