**1. Introduction**

Patterns of public investment in higher education differ between and within countries. Many countries have prioritized vocational training in their national policies [1]. Many European Union (EU) countries have focused on STEM preparation in secondary schools and STEM fields in universities [2]. Enrollment in short-cycle tertiary education programs has decreased or fluctuated in the past two decades [3]. According to the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) developed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), short-cycle tertiary education, or ISCED Level 5, refers to those programs below bachelor's or equivalent level that are practically based, occupationally-specific, at least two years long, and prepare students to enter the labor market (please refer to Appendix A for a detailed definition) [4]. For example, shortcycle tertiary education in the United States is mainly offered through two-year community and technical colleges as associate bachelor's degree programs [4]. For analytical purposes, this paper adopts the classification developed by the United Nations [5] and groups the countries of the world into two broad categories: developed countries (or economies) and less-developed countries (those not listed as developed countries, including economies in transition, developing economies, and the least developed economies).

**Citation:** Yang, L.; St. John, E.P. Public Investment in Short-Cycle Tertiary Vocational Education: Historical, Longitudinal, and Fixed-Effects Analyses of Developed and Less-Developed Countries. *Educ. Sci.* **2023**, *13*, 573. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/educsci13060573

Academic Editor: Xinqiao Liu

Received: 11 March 2023 Revised: 22 May 2023 Accepted: 25 May 2023 Published: 1 June 2023

**Copyright:** © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

In developed and less-developed countries, short-cycle tertiary vocational education shares multiple important aims related to social and economic growth: a pathway to a bachelor's degree or equivalent, vocational and technical education, workforce training, and continuing or lifelong learning [6,7]. As the global production of parts—the supply chain—developed in the early twenty-first century, many manufacturing functions moved from developed nations to less-developed countries, incentivizing vocational and higher education expansion in some of these [8]. For example, in Malaysia, the public polytechnics offering two-year certificate and three-year diploma programs in areas of industry and commerce expanded their enrollment by 1.5 times from 2009 to 2012 and become the most extensive public tertiary vocational education providers [9]. In China, to promote economic development and address the shortage of skilled technicians in trades and industries, the number of tertiary vocational colleges offering two- or three-year vocational programs has grown substantially since the late 1990s [10]. Investment in short-cycle technical training enables workers to develop skills needed for employment in newly industrializing economies. In theory, it allows them to achieve economic wellbeing (i.e., the ability to support their families), an essential human capability [11].

This study addresses two research questions: (1) How have education finance, economic development, and educational systems influenced tertiary short-cycle vocational education, after controlling for population characteristics? (2) Do the influences of education finance, economic development, and educational systems on short-cycle tertiary education (primarily vocational and technical programs) differ between developed and less-developed countries?

We use three steps: a review of historical education development, a trend analysis of educational and public investment variables, and an econometric model analyzing factors related to public investment. The first step of this triangulation method is to present a policy review for the countries studied. Next, the longitudinal trend analysis explores differences in short-cycle programs, focusing on the shift toward bachelor's programs and the economic and educational developments within evolving trade alliances and supply chains [12]. Third, the econometric analysis adapts the fixed-effects model developed by Yang and McCall [13] to explore whether the strategies of education finance and the structure of educational systems help interpret recent changes in tertiary vocational education.

#### **2. Public Policy on Postsecondary Vocational/Technical Education**

European higher education systems and policies evolved different on a different trajectory to the USA in the early twenty-first century. The USA had adopted a British model during the colonial period but later pioneered an independent path [14]. European models for organizing education followed colonialism through the empire period before WWII. Educational planning in former colonizing nations continued to influence the Cold War, before economic globalization began influencing nations' strategies in higher education planning, especially in ASEAN and EU nations. In contrast, the British model substantially influenced the evolution of the educational system in Australia and other Commonwealth countries into the early 1980s [15,16]. Thus, European institutional forms and languages became the basis for educational developments in many colonizing nations [17]. Economic globalization continues to influence changes in educational planning in former colonial countries.

Initially, the "Washington Consensus" [18] argued that privatization through high tuition fees and student loans would expand college access in less-developed countries more rapidly than public spending. Using this logic, the World Bank argued that students should pay for their vocational education and training in less-developed countries, replacing tax subsidies to institutions and students with future debt for graduates (and dropouts). This policy shift recommended that private enterprises provide training with government interventions kept to a minimum. This policy prescription was seriously flawed. Newly industrializing nations sought ways to engage more fully in international production, especially the rapidly advancing and high-performing Asian economies [19]. During the

same period, European countries elevated technical programs to bachelor's status. The US embarked on collegiate prep requirements for most secondary students, emphasizing advanced science and math courses based on comparisons of Catholic and public secondary schools [20]. Some states failed to make exceptions before many students dropped out of K-12 [21,22]. Most community colleges focused on transfer to four-year colleges [23]. Patterns of investment in short-cycle training rapidly changed as nations and regions developed niches in the evolving global economy.

Furthermore, during neoliberal economic globalization after 1980, the adoption of American-style metrics for global rankings and the elite American university model was emulated in many nations [24]. However, the US model of STEM education did not become the basis for reorganizing vocational and technical education. Rather than integrating vocational education into high school programs, the first step in the USA was to replace more expensive vocational courses with advanced science and math courses. Europe followed the reverse path by integrating vocational courses into options for students in both secondary and higher education. Short-cycle training was a transitional step.

Historically, short-cycle postsecondary education (less than bachelor's) in technical and community colleges was central to economic development in states across the USA, achieving alignment of working-class educational and work opportunities. After WWII, the USA produced and supplied goods for a world recovering from the ravages of war. However, this pattern changed radically: most states raised high graduate standards to the level expected in collegiate programs in engineering and science [23]. As STEM reforms progressed, most US community colleges shifted away from certificates in auto repair, plumbing, and other technical fields to enable students to transfer to four-year programs. For example, Indiana turned its technical college system into the state community college system [25]. There is still strong demand for short-term courses in the USA, but in many states, preparation for transfer has become the priority for many community colleges.

In contrast, as noted above, many EU nations upgraded technical education in their technological institutes and universities. In addition, EU trade agreements purposefully protected manufacturing and working-class jobs [26]. These policies accelerated the decline of the working middle class in the USA compared with Western Europe [2,27]. Since the USA and other North American nations did not provide sufficient data for the empirical analyses in this research, we do not continue this comparison.

Below, we examine recent policy literature that covers trends and practices of tertiary vocational education and education finance policies in developed and less-developed counties. We consider technical and vocational education policy in the context of national and regional postsecondary education systems. We focus on nations within alliances as an additional force influencing developments in education.

## *2.1. Technical, Vocational and Higher Education Policy in European Countries*

We focus on European nations because they provide sufficient data on education and economic developments for inclusion in the statistical analyses. We consider the EU, the UK, and post-Soviet nations separately because they followed different pathways when developing vocational and technical education policies. Our focus on the EU countries results from their high World Bank data reporting rate. We caution in generalizing beyond the EU because few non-EU developed countries provided sufficient data. We aim to build a comparative understanding and, thus, reference the US case when it helps clarify points arising in the review and analysis.

## 2.1.1. The UK, Brexit, and the Commonwealth

As England was engaging in the first industrialized age, Adam Smith [28] criticized the religion-centric European universities of the period for not developing sciences and subjects that could inform the economic development of nations in the emerging period. During the empire period, lasting until World War II (WWII), changes in education and industrial development were closely linked in nations within empires. The UK's break

from the European Union (EU) in 2015 and the continuing legacy of the British Empire illustrate the UK's distinctive role in education and the global economy.

The UK began changing international higher education access before the EU emerged. Although it has left the EU, the UK remains part of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA). Its national approach to developing and transforming vocational education remains distinctive. In 1856 the University of London originated distance education to educate children of government officials across the empire [28]. This history led to the British Open University further transforming access to higher education globally [29] in the EU and most developed nations. The UK's Oxford and Cambridge are now among the world's top five universities, having thrived during economic globalization since the end of the Cold War [30].

After 1980, British higher education came under attack by Margaret Thatcher [31]. While British higher education followed a new path thereafter [32], much of the course of US K-12 and higher education changed after Ronald Reagan's attacks on public education and college pricing refaced policy on markets and national standards. Britain shifted away from technical, short-cycle education after 1980. The British government emphasized economic globalization within and beyond the Commonwealth as Ronald Reagan withdrew support for international organizations and focused on tearing down the Berlin Wall. Of course, the adoption and troubled development of democratic institutions were part of the first stage of globalization. Still, the influence of Thatcher's free market ideology was globally transformative at the time, especially in South Asia.

The UK started to transform its technical education system before it joined the EU. Under UK leadership before WWII, the British Commonwealth had a lengthy history of technical and further education. It began to change its technical and further education system in the 1980s, well before the emergence of the EU. The British Commonwealth provides unique examples of the spread of a nation's model through diaspora networks before 1980, followed by the nation's neoliberal ideology influencing economic globalization [15]. Further education is no longer part of higher education in the UK and does not enjoy the same status. In contrast, starting in the late 1970s, the UK upgraded technical education into the tertiary system. The UK privatization of higher and technical education started by raising tuition and expanding loans in the late 20th century.

Thus, tertiary education was more privatized than in other EU nations in the early twenty-first century [18]. Marginson [33] argues that demand for higher education is inelastic and does not create an access barrier to education, because of income-contingent loans over the past decade. Continuing education of non-traditional part-time students also departs from the EU open-access approach, because part-time and mature students have access to loans but must repay the borrowed amount. Only about 11 percent of students enroll in further education colleges to pursue this pathway, where students are primarily at sub-degree certificate and diploma levels [33].

Comparing national histories within the Commonwealth presents a challenge. Ireland, for example, is in the EU, but its higher and vocational systems still have strong similarities to the UK. New Zealand and Ireland also have a long history of British influence. Further, the Commonwealth linkages and British investment in education training in Southeast Asia influenced collaborative engagement in education for economic development. Yet, these nations' educational systems had uncommon origins. The British and Australians supported indigenous development education for national industries in the 1980s, through the Colombo Plan (an alliance to rebuild Asia after WWII). For example, in 1988, the Colombo Plan Staff College organized an international "Planning Strategically" conference for senior officials from 15 Asian nations, in Manila, Philippines. In contrast, the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe was strongly influenced by US democratic institutionalized values [34,35]. The aims were to cast off post-colonial status and focus on indigenous education for economic development.

We consider the British Commonwealth's legacy in technical education when comparing the UK nations to the EU or less-developed Commonwealth nations or groups

of developing countries around the globe. The UK and many Commonwealth nations upgraded technical education in the late twentieth century. England and other Commonwealth nations transformed technical education institutions into higher education institutions, a transitional process that started in the 1980s [15,16].
