**3. Trends in Economic and Educational Development Affecting Short-Cycle VET Courses**

This section draws panel (cross-country time-series) data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) published by the World Bank. Our dataset is composed of 67 countries with sufficient data over 19 years from 2000 to 2018 for selected variables. The country cases include 25 developed and 42 less-developed (including developing and least developed countries) countries in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe (see country list in Table 1).

**Table 1.** Developing and Less-developed Countries By Region in 2018 (n = 67): Nations and A Chinese Administrative Regions Providing Sufficient Data on Education Finance, Economic Development, Education System Development, and Population.



**Table 1.** *Cont.*

Breakdown of developed and less-developed countries was prepared by the United Nations (UN/DESA). Retrieved from https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/WESP2019\_ BOOK-ANNEX-en.pdf (accessed on 10 March 2023). (\*) European Union Nation. Retrieved from: https: //www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=is+finland+in+thr+Ru%3F&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF- (accessed on 10 March 2023).

Most of the developed countries that consistently reported were in the EU. The US and Canada did not provide sufficient data, eliminating the North American Trade Alliance from this analysis. Only one administrative area in China, Hong Kong, was included, limiting our ability to draw implications for the Asian high-tech supply chain. We limit generalization in recognition of these critical data gaps.

The less-developed nations from all regions across the world provided information. Several Eastern European countries formerly in the Soviet sphere of influence joined the EU in the early 2000s, including East Germany, which merged with West Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Slovak Republic. Engagement in the EU uplifted these economies as these nations met the economic standards of development by 2018. Former Eastern European nations, including Albania, Hungary, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, once part of the Soviet sphere in Europe, did not develop rapidly. Per capita GDP is the primary indicator of development, and this indicator has a substantial differential (Figure 1). China and Russia did not supply sufficient data, so their influence is also beyond the scope of this study.

**Figure 1.** GDP Per Capita (in Constant 2015 US\$) by countries' development status.

Developed nations have more than three times the economic production per capita of less-developed countries. However, it would be a mistake to assume that the average citizen benefited from the economic growth of Western European nations [27]. Indeed, Western Europeans born after 1950 have experienced downward economic mobility on average compared to their parents [77].

Using World Bank data, we analyze the longitudinal trends in economic development in developed and less-developed nations, followed by enrollment in short-cycle programs. The trends analyzed below examine the variables included in the fixed-effects regression analysis in Section 4.

## *3.1. Economic Development within Globalizing Nations*

Engagement in the global economy boosts the economies of less-developed nations. The GDP per capita remained below USD 10,000 (in constant US dollars) from 2000 until 2014 and only began to break this barrier after 2016 (Figure 1) with changes in trade alliances after 2015. The post-recession global economic recovery during this period seems a more likely influential factor. There was also a slight economic uplift in the economies of the less-developed nations after 2016. From this data, it is not possible to conclude that changes in trade alliances were a cause of these temporal changes; this is an issue that merits further study.

Between 2000 and 2010, manufacturing output in developed nations declined while it rose in less-developed countries (Figure 2). Manufacturing output grew from 2000 to 2007 in less-developed countries, then gradually declined until 2015, then fell sharply. Uncertainty about US–China trade is an issue not represented in this data. As recession waned in 2013, manufacturing increased in Easter Europe [78]. However, China realigned trade with the EU, and these nations seemed to benefit from the UK's withdrawal [79]. These are recent developments and, therefore, probably would not impact these data reports.

**Figure 2.** Manufacturing output (in billions, Constant 2015 USD) by countries' development status.
