Search Results (2)

There is a pressing need for tools that can rapidly predict ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$ concentrations and assess health impacts under various emission scenarios, aiding in the selection of optimal mitigation strategies. Traditional chemical transport models (CTMs) like CMAQ are accurate but computationally intensive, limiting practical scenario analysis. To address this, we propose a novel method integrating a conditional U-Net surrogate model with health impact assessments, enabling swift estimation of ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$ concentrations and related health effects. The U-Net model was trained with 2019 South Korean ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$ data, including precursor emissions and boundary conditions. Our model showed high accuracy and significant efficiency, reducing processing times while maintaining reliability. By combining this surrogate model with the EPA’s BenMAP-CE tool, we estimated potential premature deaths under various emission reduction scenarios in South Korea, extending projections to 2050 to account for demographic changes. Additionally, we assessed the required ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$ emission reductions needed to counteract the increase in premature deaths due to an aging population. This integrated framework offers an efficient, user-friendly tool that bridges complex air quality modeling with practical policy evaluation, supporting the development of effective strategies to reduce ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$-related health risks and estimate economic benefits. Full article

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with the 7th generation aerosol module (AERO7) was employed to simulate organic aerosol (OA) in Seoul, Korea, for the year 2016. The goal of the present study includes the 1-year simulation of OA using WRF-CMAQ with recently EPA-developed AERO7 with pcVOC (potential VOC from combustion) scale factor revision and analysis of the seasonal behavior of OA surrogate species in Seoul. The AERO7, the most recent version of the aerosol module of the CMAQ model, includes a new secondary organic aerosol (SOA) species, pcSOA (potential SOA from combustion), to resolve the inherent under-prediction problem of OA. The AERO7 classified OA into three groups: primary organic aerosol (POA), anthropogenic SOA (ASOA), and biogenic SOA (BSOA). Each OA group was further classified into 6~15 individual OA surrogate species according to volatility and oxygen content to model the aging of OA and the formation of SOA. The hourly emissions of POA and SOA precursors were compiled and fed into the CMAQ to successfully simulate seasonal variations of OA compositions and ambient organic-matter to organic-carbon ratios (OM/OC). The model simulation showed that the POA and ASOA were major organic groups in the cool months (from November to March) while BSOA was a major organic group in the warm months (from April to October) in Seoul. The simulated OM/OCs ranged from 1.5~2.1 in Seoul, which agreed well with AMS measurements in Seoul in May 2016. Full article