Search Results (1,206)

Understanding how climate variability is reflected in streamflow is essential for reservoir management and hydropower planning. This study investigated how temporal scale influences climate–streamflow relationships, persistence characteristics, and predictability in two Brazilian reservoirs: Três Marias (São Francisco Basin) and Serra da Mesa (Tocantins Basin). Monthly streamflow and climate-index records (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)) from 1979–2020 were analyzed using a 12-month moving average (MA12) filter to emphasize low-frequency variability. Temporal filtering strengthened climate–streamflow relationships, particularly for PDO and AAO, revealing signals that were less apparent in the original monthly series. Lagged-correlation analyses identified contrasting persistence structures between the reservoirs. Três Marias exhibited multi-year persistence timescales (22–27 months), whereas Serra da Mesa showed shorter and more heterogeneous response timescales, ranging from an immediate PDO response to approximately 14–19 months for ENSO and AAO. Forecasting experiments using benchmark models (Persistence and Linear Regression) and deep learning architectures (LSTM and TCN) showed limited predictive skill on the raw monthly series but substantially improved performance after temporal filtering. For the MA12-filtered series, the benchmark models achieved the highest performance in both reservoirs ($R^2\approx 0.95$ in Três Marias and $R^2\approx 0.93$ in Serra da Mesa). Overall, the results indicate that temporal scale strongly influences the detectability of climate signals, the persistence of streamflow variability, and the predictability of reservoir inflows. Full article

In recent decades, summer extreme high-temperature (EHT) events in the Sichuan–Chongqing (SC) region of southwestern China have become increasingly frequent under global warming. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered a key strategy for achieving the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement; however, the response of regional EHT events to CDR remains poorly understood. Based on CN05.1 observations and idealized CO₂ ramp-up and ramp-down experiments from the CMIP6 Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP), this study investigates the historical characteristics of summer EHT events over eastern SC and their responses to CDR. The results show that historical EHT events have become more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense, indicating an overall intensification of regional high-temperature risk. Under idealized CO₂ pathways, regional mean temperature and EHT frequency exhibit pronounced asymmetric and hysteretic responses, with positive anomalies persisting even after CO₂ returns to its initial level. This asymmetric response is closely associated with the enhanced slow oceanic response during the ramp-down period. Stronger El Niño-like and Indian Ocean Dipole-like SST warming intensifies the South Asian High and western Pacific subtropical high, favoring elevated summer temperatures and increased EHT events over eastern SC. Soil moisture also heats the atmosphere by altering the surface latent heat flux in the southwestern part of the study region during ramp-down period. These findings not only improve the understanding of regional extreme event responses in the SC region under carbon neutrality, but also confirm the positive effect of carbon neutrality targets on mitigating regional extreme climate change, thereby highlighting the urgent need to control CO₂ emissions. Full article

Sustainable urban air quality in tropical cities is threatened by interactions between climate change, extreme drought, and long-range wildfire smoke transport. This study investigated the causes of PM_2.5 pollution in Manaus, Brazil, under El Niño conditions during the 2023 drought, focusing on long-range wildfire smoke transport. The links among hydroclimatic drying, wildfire activity, and urban air quality were examined using hourly PM_2.5 observations, meteorological data, long-term climate records, MODIS hotspot and fire radiative power (FRP) data, and air-mass trajectory analyses. Significant long-term warming, decreasing precipitation, and a declining standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were observed around Manaus during 1981–2024, indicating persistent drying. In 2023, severe drought and increased wildfire activity caused an annual mean PM_2.5 concentration of 15.09 µg m⁻³. Directional analyses, upwind FRP, potential source contribution function, and backward trajectories consistently highlighted the eastern and southeastern source regions approximately 500–2200 km from Manaus. These results indicated that PM_2.5 levels were more sensitive to spatial alignment between upwind fires and prevailing winds than to total fire activity alone. In conclusion, the 2023 PM_2.5 surge was driven by long-range wildfire smoke transport under intensified drying and drought, with implications for urban sustainability, public health, and climate-resilient early warning systems. Full article

Dengue virus infection is a febrile illness caused by the Orthoflavivirus Dengue, which is transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus. Despite the fact that Dengue virus (DENV) is present in tropical and subtropical areas, climate change with global warming has been associated with the spread of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in several other regions worldwide. Notably, as the presence of Aedes albopictus has been confirmed in Southern Europe, already locally transmitted cases of Dengue virus infection have been reported in Europe. Apart from Europe, Australia has reported DENV cases in the 21st century that have been associated with the transmission of Aedes aegypti in the neighboring islands. Climate change, namely increasing temperatures, higher humidity and rainfalls, together with the development of urban heat islands, uncontrollable deforestation and urbanization, travelling and trade, has contributed significantly to the spread of DENV infection. Modern diagnosis based upon the advent of “multi-omics” techniques and machinery learning programs will be of the utmost importance for the early and accurate diagnosis of DENV infection. Finally, preventive measures for controlling Dengue virus infection, such as the use of repellents, educational programs, and improvement in water storage and waste management at the community levels would be very useful. Regarding climate change, the One Health Approach by integrating collaboration of various sectors and raising public awareness seems to be of the utmost importance in this context. Further investigations regarding the development of antiviral agents and vaccines will be an important asset in our armamentarium against DENV infection. Full article

Aerosols emitted by biomass burning represent one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our current understanding of the Earth’s radiative balance. We investigate the climatic influence of biomass burning aerosols emitted from six key regions of biomass burning by using GEOS-Chem coupled with the rapid radiative transfer model. We evaluate our model using AERONET observation, with the model reproducing data with 87% observed spatial and seasonal variability with a low negative bias of 7%. The radiation sensitivity is generally highest for North Asia (NAS) and for North America (NCC); lowest for South America (SAM) and South and Southeast Asia (SSA); and moderate for Africa (AFR) and Oceania (OCE). These regional differences are related to the main burning types of the regions. When we consider the global radiation influence, AFR dominates the global picture due to the comparatively large biomass burned. We estimate the global mean radiation influence of biomass burning aerosol is −0.116 W m⁻². For monthly features, in summer, due to higher incident energy obtained in NAS and NCC, high negative radiation sensitivity of biomass burning, biomass burning aerosols, and biomass burning organic aerosol are shown in these regions. Meanwhile, the radiation sensitivity peak of black carbon for these two regions occurs earlier in late spring (NAS) or early summer (NCC), when large incident energy and large high reflectance snow cover coexist in these two high-latitude regions. A significant yearly difference in radiation influence, rather than radiation sensitivity, is found, with the relative difference between the maximum year and minimum year reaching 90% of the maximum radiation influence year. Specifically, two regions affected by El Niño (OCE and SSA) have the most significant yearly variation in all factors, with anomalies occurring in El Niño years. Full article

Substantial uncertainties remain in climate model simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly those associated with internal climate variability. While the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual TC variability is well established, the contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to decadal-scale uncertainty is less well constrained. Although models generally reproduce IPO-related variations in tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the eastern North Pacific, large discrepancies persist across the broader North Pacific basin. Clarifying the role of IPO in modulating TCGF uncertainty is therefore essential for improving decadal TC projections. In this study, we analyzed a large ensemble of historical simulations from the MRI-AGCM within the d4PDF (Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change) framework. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to IPO-composited fields to identify the leading modes of intermember (100 members *60 y, 6000 times) simulation uncertainty on a decadal-scale. The results reveal that state-of-the-art models exhibit robust and spatially coherent uncertainty structures in TCGF under different IPO phases. Two leading modes are identified: (1) a South China Sea mode, closely associated with systematic precipitation biases, and (2) a zonal dipole mode between the eastern and western North Pacific, linked to the equatorward propagation of Arctic Oscillation (AO)-related variability. Misrepresentation of AO variability is found to contribute substantially to biases in simulated TCGF patterns. Comparisons with observational datasets further support the proposed mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of improving the representation of precipitation processes and extratropical–tropical teleconnections in climate models, which is critical for enhancing the reliability of decadal predictions of North Pacific TC activity. Full article

Drought is a major global hazard, yet critical knowledge gaps persist regarding how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates it in topographically complex equatorial regions. This study characterizes ENSO’s spatiotemporal influence on drought across Ecuador’s four principal Köppen–Geiger climate zones: Amazon, Andean highlands, temperate, and arid coastal. Using meteorological data (1985–2015), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) across multiple timescales. Ten ENSO indices were evaluated using Wavelet Coherence analysis to identify non-stationary, scale-dependent correlations and phase dynamics. Results show that tropical, temperate, and Andean (polar tundra) climates exhibit prolonged climatic memory, with significant ENSO correlations across 1- to 24-month SPEI scales. Conversely, arid regions display shorter memory, with correlations dissipating at longer timescales due to limited moisture storage. Phase analysis reveals two high-coherence intervals (1995–2000 and 2007–2013) at the 3-year return period, in which ENSO indices led drought by 9–18 months, underscoring their predictive potential. At 6- and 11-year periods, ENSO signals generally lag SPEI, indicating prolonged drought retention. The Trans-Niño Index and Southern Oscillation Index proved particularly sensitive for the Amazon–Andes transition. These findings establish a robust framework for improving drought monitoring and climate adaptation in vulnerable equatorial regions. Full article

Rice cultivation commonly employs the continuous flooding (CF) method, which depends heavily on water availability creating anaerobic conditions for methane (CH₄) emissions. Rainfed rice areas rely on precipitation for irrigation, making the system sensitive to climatic variability. This study examines associations between ENSO phases and satellite-observed atmospheric XCH₄ variability over Thailand using GOSAT as the primary long-term dataset from 2012 to 2022, with Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI used as a supporting dataset for recent spatial patterns. The analysis conducted covers three cropping seasons: (1) January–April, (2) May–August, and (3) September–December. The results indicate comparable average atmospheric methane concentrations of 1787.94 ± 11.50 XCH₄ (ppb) during El Niño, 1788.8 ± 11.22 XCH₄ (ppb) in neutral conditions, and 1793.45 ± 10.93 XCH₄ (ppb) during La Niña. The obtained data indicate a seasonal variability, with the highest satellite-observed XCH₄ values found during September–December, corresponding to the main growing period of wet-season rice. The results suggest that climate change amplifies these anomalies through altered precipitation patterns and water availability. Current rice cultivation practices warrant reconsideration, in particular the alternate wetting and drying (AWD) method, offering reduced CH₄ emissions while conserving water resources. This underscores the importance of water management strategies for sustainable rice production and resilience to climate variability. Full article

Olive (Olea europaea L.) orchards on the hyper-arid Peruvian coast (Tacna, ${18}^{\circ }$ S) suffered >70$\%$ yield collapses in the 2016 and 2024 El Niño seasons against a non-failure mean of $\sim 6$ t ha⁻¹ and a 2022 La Niña bumper harvest, raising the question of whether insufficient winter chilling is the binding climate constraint. We combined in situ daily meteorology (2015–2025) with yield records from eleven Sevillana–Ascolana parcels (88 parcel-years over eight seasons) and fitted a year-level log-OLS model with mean chill-window and fruit-growth temperatures, validated by year-block bootstrap, permutation, a closed-form Bayesian posterior, and a parcel-year mixed model. The model achieves $R_{log}^2=0.65$, and the chill slope ($\beta =-0.82$) is robust across three independent tests: one-sided permutation $p=0.036$; Bayesian posterior with 99.8% of mass below zero (Savage–Dickey BF₁₀ = 15.9); parcel-year mixed model $p<{10}^{-14}$. Counterfactual restoration of chill-window temperature to its non-failure climatology recovers the full collapse in both years, whereas restoring fruit-growth temperature recovers nothing. CMIP6 delta-method projections identify a chill-collapse threshold at $\Delta T_{\mathrm{winter}}\approx +{1.25 }^{\circ }$C; SSP1-2.6 alone reduces mid-century mean yield by $\sim 52\%$, and SSP5-8.5 reaches $-89\%$ by 2051–2070. Tacna emerges as a chill-sentinel system where winter warmth, not summer heat, is the binding constraint and the transition to the failure regime lies on a near-term adaptation horizon. Full article

Interannual climate variability exerts a strong control on the thermohaline structure of eastern boundary upwelling systems, particularly in transition zones where distinct water masses converge. Seasonal and interannual variability in temperature and salinity were examined in the southern California Current System for the period 2000–2015 using hydrographic observations and satellite altimetry, analyzed by season and ENSO phase. During El Niño, the upper 100 m exhibits positive temperature and salinity anomalies of 1–2 °C and ~0.1–0.2 g kg⁻¹ associated with 50–80 m isopycnal deepening, reduced upwelling-induced ventilation, the expansion of subtropical waters onto the shelf, and enhanced poleward geostrophic transport. In contrast, La Niña conditions shoal isopycnals, enhances upper-layer stratification, and sustains equatorward flow throughout the year. Temperature and salinity anomalies extend below 100 m, suggesting a remote reorganization of the baroclinic structure at the shelf–ocean boundary. Salt fingering is inferred to be the dominant non-conventional mixing process in the region, with peak occurrence in autumn. These results highlight that ENSO confines thermohaline reorganization to the inner continental shelf (~150 km), modulates coastal–ocean density gradients, weakens equatorward geostrophic transport during El Niño, and alters coastal–ocean heat and salt exchanges within the southern CCS transition zone. Full article

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is a critical conduit connecting the tropical western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, constituting an essential component of the global ocean circulation and exerting a significant influence on its large-scale balance. Under the backdrop of global warming, both the magnitude of ITF transport and its relationships with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to undergo substantial changes. Using the SODA3.15.2 reanalysis as an observational benchmark, this study evaluates the ability of 14 CMIP6 models to simulate ITF volume transport. Following a systematic performance assessment, four poorly performing models were excluded, and the remaining 10-model ensemble was employed to construct a multi-model ensemble mean (MME). The MME is then employed to investigate the long-term trends in ITF transport during the historical period (1850–2014) and under two future emissions scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (2015–2100). During the historical period, ITF transport exhibits a transition from a weak strengthening to a weak weakening trend around 1934–1935, detected by both the sliding t-test and the Pettitt test, with relatively modest overall change. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, ITF transport weakens at rates of 0.318 Sv decade⁻¹ and 0.466 Sv decade⁻¹, respectively, with projected declines of approximately 3 Sv (27%) and 4 Sv (36%) by 2100. Reductions during boreal winter and spring exceed those in summer, indicating a pronounced seasonal asymmetry in the ITF response to future warming. The interannual variability of ITF is predominantly driven by ENSO, while the IOD also exerts an independent yet weaker modulating influence. Full article

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as a key factor influencing grapevine phenology and harvest timing in South America. Nevertheless, few long-term analyses have explored its varietal impacts in hyper-arid viticultural regions. The goal was to evaluate the effect of ENSO phases on harvest dates and bioclimatic indices in different grapevine varieties cultivated in Northern Chile. The results revealed that Muscat of Alexandria showed little variation in harvest timing across ENSO phases. In contrast, harvest time in Thompson Seedless was delayed under La Niña events, being strongly correlated with the Maximum Spring Temperature Summation (SON_max) Index. Moscatel Rosada and Flame Seedless showed non-statistical significance and high variability on harvest dates. El Niño phases were consistently warmer than La Niña events that showed markedly greater interannual variability on harvest dates and bioclimatic index values. The strength of correlations was improved when the bioclimatic indices were recalculated over adjusted seasonal windows, underscoring the need for phenology-based rather than calendar-based approaches. These results provide new evidence of the heterogeneous responses of table and Pisco grapevine varieties to ENSO events in the hyper-arid regions of Northern Chile, underscoring the varietal differences in sensitivity to early-season climatic anomalies. Full article

Droughts are complex extreme phenomena that severely impact regional development and water availability. Although the influence of interannual and decadal macroclimatic patterns, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on precipitation alteration is widely recognized, current water management systems lack multivariate predictive approaches to anticipate their phases with sufficient operational lead time. This study developed a predictive framework to project ENSO and PDO phases, establishing an optimal temporal window to forecast drought-triggering conditions. Using monthly historical records, teleconnections were evaluated through cross-correlation and Granger causality. Subsequently, Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and machine learning algorithms (Random Forest) were implemented to project anomalies and classify climatic phases. The Granger causality test demonstrated that ENSO variations statistically precede PDO phase shifts, establishing an optimal forecasting window of three to four months. The VAR model exhibited robust joint explanatory capacity for a continuous four-month projection, while the Random Forest algorithm achieved a predictive accuracy of 52.2% specifically for categorical phase classification at a three-month lead time. It is concluded that this lagged interaction allows for reliable mathematical anticipation, providing an essential analytical framework for exploring regional hydrological dynamics and supporting local preventive water management. Full article

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate variability, strongly influencing precipitation, temperature, and extreme events worldwide. In South America, its impacts are well documented. However, studies examining different ENSO types—Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), and Mixed (MX), defined according to the location of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific—remain limited, particularly for the Brazilian subtropical climate. This study investigates rainfall variability in the Brazilian subtropical region associated with different ENSO types. Composite analyses of precipitation, wind, and SST anomalies were performed, and monthly rainfall data from 703 stations were used to identify homogeneous regions. The results show the intensity and spatial coherence of rainfall signals vary according to El Niño type, with EP events favoring widespread wet conditions and CP events producing more heterogeneous or locally negative anomalies. For La Niña, the intensity and seasonal distribution of negative rainfall anomalies vary by ENSO type: stronger impacts occur in summer (EP), spring (MX), and autumn (CP). These findings improve the understanding of ENSO-related rainfall variability in the Brazilian subtropical region and provide valuable insights for the management of climate-related risks in an area frequently affected by rainfall extremes. Full article

Fire plays an important role in shaping forested ecosystems around the globe. Unlike many other fire-driven forest types, our understanding of pre-settlement fire behavior in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) systems is limited. To better understand the frequency and severity of fires in a putatively stable quaking aspen forest, a small, key watershed was selected for sediment coring to reconstruct fire history, vegetation change, and climatic variability. The study aim was to explore the fire–climate–vegetation linkages in an aspen-dominated catchment. For the past ~4000 years this basin has been dominated by quaking aspen but also subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and their relative composition has shifted inversely over this period. Large, stand-replacing fires occurred, on average, every ~178 years, with individual fire-free intervals ranging from 132 to 323 years. The occurrence of fire was not related to climatic conditions as characterized by either cool-season or warm-season moisture availability (drought proxies). Rather, fire occurrence was most strongly related to fuel accumulation associated with the predictable successional shift in species dominance from quaking aspen to subalpine fir. Unlike in climate-limited systems where managers have little control over fire occurrence due to climatic conditions (e.g., drought), fuel-limited systems are controlled from the bottom up, where the explicit reduction or redistribution of long-term fuel buildup is an effective approach to reducing the likelihood and/or effects of fire in the short-term. Full article