Search Results (29)

Sales forecasting in make-to-order (MTO) production is particularly challenging for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) due to high product customization, volatile demand, and limited historical data. This study evaluates the practical feasibility and accuracy of statistical and machine learning (ML) forecasting methods in MTO settings across three manufacturing sectors: electrical equipment, steel, and office supplies. A cross-industry benchmark assesses models such as ARIMA, Holt–Winters, Random Forest, LSTM, and Facebook Prophet. The evaluation considers error metrics (MAE, RMSE, and sMAPE) as well as implementation aspects like computational demand and interpretability. Special attention is given to data sensitivity and technical limitations typical in SMEs. The findings show that ML models perform well under high volatility and when enriched with external indicators, but they require significant expertise and resources. In contrast, simpler statistical methods offer robust performance in more stable or seasonal demand contexts and are better suited in certain cases. The study emphasizes the importance of transparency, usability, and trust in forecasting tools and offers actionable recommendations for selecting a suitable forecasting configuration based on context. By aligning technical capabilities with operational needs, this research supports more effective decision-making in data-constrained MTO environments. Full article

Objective: This study seeks to forecast the global burden of diabetes-related mortality by type, age group, WHO region, and income classification through 2030, and to assess progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4, which aims to reduce premature mortality (among people age 30–70 years) from noncommunicable diseases (including diabetes) by one-third. Methods: We analyzed diabetes mortality data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Global Burden of Disease 2019, covering 30 years (1990–2019). Using this historical dataset, we generated 11-year prospective forecasts (2020–2030) globally and stratified by diabetes type (type 1, type 2), age groups, WHO regions, and World Bank income classifications. We employed multiple time series and epidemic modeling approaches to enhance predictive accuracy, including ARIMA, GAM, GLM, Facebook’s Prophet, n-sub-epidemic, and spatial wave models. We compared model outputs to identify consistent patterns and trends. Results: Our forecasts indicate a substantial increase in global diabetes-related mortality, with type 2 diabetes driving the majority of deaths. By 2030, annual diabetes mortality is projected to reach 1.63 million deaths (95% PI: 1.48–1.91 million), reflecting a 10% increase compared to 2019. Particularly concerning is the projected rise in mortality among adults aged 15–49 and 50–69 years, especially in Southeast Asia and low- and middle-income countries. Mortality in upper-middle-income countries is also expected to increase significantly, exceeding a 50% rise compared to 2019. Conclusions: Diabetes-related deaths are rising globally, particularly in younger and middle-aged adults in resource-limited settings. These trends jeopardize the achievement of SDG 3.4. Urgent action is needed to strengthen prevention, early detection, and management strategies, especially in Southeast Asia and low-income regions. Our findings provide data-driven insights to inform global policy and target public health interventions. Full article

As the world moves toward a low-carbon future, a key challenge is improving buildings’ energy performance while maintaining occupant thermal comfort. Emerging digital tools such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and Building Information Modeling (BIM) offer significant potential, enabling precise monitoring and control of building systems. However, integrating these technologies into a unified Digital Twin (DT) framework remains underexplored, particularly in relation to thermal comfort. Additionally, real-world case studies are limited. This paper presents a DT-based system that combines BIM and IoT sensors to monitor and control indoor comfort in real time through an easy-to-use web platform. By using BIM spatial and geometric data along with real-time data from sensors, the system visualizes thermal comfort using a simplified Predicted Mean Vote (sPMV) index. Furthermore, it also uses a hybrid machine learning model that combines Facebook Prophet and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the future indoor environmental parameters. The framework enables Model Predictive Control (MPC) while providing building managers with a scalable tool to collect, analyze, visualize, and optimize thermal comfort data in real time. Full article

The sustainable management of energy resources is fundamental in addressing global environmental and economic challenges, particularly when considering biofuels such as ethanol and gasoline. This study evaluates advanced forecasting models to predict consumption trends for these fuels in Brazil. The models analyzed include ARIMA/SARIMA, Holt–Winters, ETS, TBATS, Facebook Prophet, Uber Orbit, N-BEATS, and TFT. By leveraging datasets spanning 72, 144, and 263 months, the study aims to assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex temporal consumption patterns. Uber Orbit exhibited the highest accuracy in forecasting ethanol consumption among the evaluated models, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.77%. Meanwhile, the TBATS model demonstrated superior performance for gasoline consumption, with a MAPE of 3.22%. Our models have achieved more accurate predictions than other compared works, suggesting ethanol demand is more dynamic and underlining the potential of advanced time–series models to enhance the precision of energy consumption forecasts. This study contributes to more effective resource planning by improving predictive accuracy, enabling data-driven policy making, optimizing resource allocation, and advancing sustainable energy management practices. These results support Brazil’s energy sector and provide a framework for sustainable decision making that could be applied globally. Full article

The unpredictable nature of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, makes them unreliable sources of energy for the power system. Nevertheless, with the advancement in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), one can predict the availability of solar and wind energy in the short, medium, and long term with fairly high accuracy. As such, this research work aims to develop a machine-learning-based framework for forecasting global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for Muscat, Oman. The proposed framework includes a data preprocessing stage, where the missing entries in the acquired data are imputed using the mean value imputation method. Afterward, data scaling is carried out to avoid the overfitting/underfitting of the model. Features such as the GHI cloudy sky index, the GHI clear sky index, global normal irradiance (GNI) for a cloudy sky, GNI for a clear sky, direct normal irradiance (DNI) for a cloudy sky, and DNI for a clear sky are extracted. After analyzing the correlation between the abovementioned features, model training and the testing procedure are initiated. In this research, different models, named Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVR), KNN Regressor, Decision Forest Regressor, XGBoost Regressor, Neural Network (NN), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Random Forest Regressor, Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Deep Autoregressive (DeepAR), and Facebook Prophet, are trained and tested under both identical features and a training–testing ratio. The model evaluation metrics used in this study include the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean squared error (RMSE), R², and mean bias deviation (MBD). Based on the outcomes of this study, it is concluded that the Facebook Prophet model outperforms all of the other utilized conventional machine learning models, with MAE, RMSE, and R² values of 9.876, 18.762, and 0.991 for the cloudy conditions and 11.613, 19.951 and 0.988 for the clean weather conditions, respectively. The mentioned error values are the lowest among all of the studied models, which makes Facebook Prophet the most accurate solar irradiance forecasting model for Muscat, Oman. Full article

This paper addresses the problem of estimating passenger demand for flights, with a particular focus on the necessity of developing precise forecasts that incorporate intricate and interdependent variables for effective resource planning within the air transport industry. The present paper focuses on the development of a model for medium-term flight demand estimation by flight destinations. This is based on the analysis of historical airline data on dates, departure times, and passenger demand, as well as the consideration of the influence of macroeconomic indicators, namely gross regional product (GRP), median per capita income, and population of departure and arrival points. This paper reviews international experience in the development of demand forecasting models and their use for resource planning in the industry. The developed model was evaluated using historical data on demand for a single turnaround flight operated by an airline. The developed model allows for the forecasting of the distribution of potential demand for airline flight destinations in the medium term, utilizing comprehensive historical data on departure times and flight demand by destination. Full article

As the effects of global climate change intensify, it is increasingly important to implement more effective water management practices, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as Meoqui, Chihuahua, situated in the arid northern center of Mexico. The objective of this study was to identify the optimal time-series model for analyzing the pattern of water extraction volumes and predicting a one-year forecast. It was hypothesized that the volume of water extracted over time could be explained by a statistical time-series model, with the objective of predicting future trends. To achieve this objective, three time-series models were evaluated. To assess the pattern of groundwater extraction, three time-series models were employed: the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Prophet, and Prophet with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The mean extraction volume for the entire period was 50,935 ± 47,540 m³, with a total of 67,233,578 m³ extracted from all wells. The greatest volume of water extracted has historically been from urban wells, with an average extraction of 55,720 ± 48,865 m³ and a total of 63,520,284 m³. The mean extraction volume for raw water wells was determined to be 20,629 ± 19,767 m³, with a total extraction volume of 3,713,294 m³. The SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,0)₁₂ model was identified as the optimal time-series model for general extraction, while a “white noise” model, an ARIMA(0,1,0) for raw water, and an SARIMA(2,1,1)(2,0,0)₁₂ model were identified as optimal for urban wells. These findings serve to reinforce the efficacy of the SARIMA model in forecasting and provide a basis for water resource managers in the region to develop policies that promote sustainable water management. Full article

Forecasting can be utilized to predict future trends in physiological demands, which can be beneficial for developing effective interventions. This study implemented forecasting models to predict fatigue level progression when performing exoskeleton (EXO)-assisted tasks. Specifically, perceived and muscle activity data were utilized from nine recruited participants who performed 45° trunk flexion tasks intermittently with and without assistance until they reached medium-high exertion in the low-back region. Two forecasting algorithms, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Facebook Prophet, were implemented using perceived fatigue levels alone, and with external features of low-back muscle activity. Findings showed that univariate models without external features performed better with the Prophet model having the lowest mean (SD) of root mean squared error (RMSE) across participants of 0.62 (0.24) and 0.67 (0.29) with and without EXO-assisted tasks, respectively. Temporal effects of BSIE on delaying fatigue progression were then evaluated by forecasting back fatigue up to 20 trials. The slope of fatigue progression for 20 trials without assistance was ~48–52% higher vs. with assistance. Median benefits of 54% and 43% were observed for ARIMA (with external features) and Prophet algorithms, respectively. This study demonstrates some potential applications for forecasting models for workforce health monitoring, intervention assessment, and injury prevention. Full article

The volatile and non-linear nature of stock market data, particularly in the post-pandemic era, poses significant challenges for accurate financial forecasting. To address these challenges, this research develops advanced deep learning and machine learning algorithms to predict financial trends, quantify risks, and forecast stock prices, focusing on the technology sector. Our study seeks to answer the following question: “Which deep learning and supervised machine learning algorithms are the most accurate and efficient in predicting economic trends and stock market prices, and under what conditions do they perform best?” We focus on two advanced recurrent neural network (RNN) models, long short-term memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), to evaluate their efficiency in predicting technology industry stock prices. Additionally, we integrate statistical methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Facebook Prophet and machine learning algorithms like Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to enhance the robustness of our predictions. Unlike classical statistical algorithms, LSTM and GRU models can identify and retain important data sequences, enabling more accurate predictions. Our experimental results show that the GRU model outperforms the LSTM model in terms of prediction accuracy and training time across multiple metrics such as RMSE and MAE. This study offers crucial insights into the predictive capabilities of deep learning models and advanced machine learning techniques for financial forecasting, highlighting the potential of GRU and XGBoost for more accurate and efficient stock price prediction in the technology sector. Full article

Energy demand forecasting is crucial for effective resource management within the energy sector and is aligned with the objectives of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). This study undertakes a comparative analysis of different forecasting models to predict future energy demand trends in Brazil, improve forecasting methodologies, and achieve sustainable development goals. The evaluation encompasses the following models: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Exogenous SARIMA (SARIMAX), Facebook Prophet (FB Prophet), Holt–Winters, Trigonometric Seasonality Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal components (TBATS), and draws attention to their respective strengths and limitations. Its findings reveal unique capabilities among the models, with SARIMA excelling in tracing seasonal patterns, FB Prophet demonstrating its potential applicability across various sectors, Holt–Winters adept at managing seasonal fluctuations, and TBATS offering flexibility albeit requiring significant data inputs. Additionally, the investigation explores the effect of external factors on energy consumption, by establishing connections through the Granger causality test and conducting correlation analyses. The accuracy of these models is assessed with and without exogenous variables, categorized as economical, industrial, and climatic. Ultimately, this investigation seeks to add to the body of knowledge on energy demand prediction, as well as to allow informed decision-making in sustainable energy planning and policymaking and, thus, make rapid progress toward SDG7 and its associated targets. This paper concludes that, although FB Prophet achieves the best accuracy, SARIMA is the most fit model, considering the residual autocorrelation, and it predicts that Brazil will demand approximately 70,000 GWh in 2033. Full article

The advancement towards utilizing renewable energy sources is crucial for mitigating environmental issues such as air pollution and climate change. Offshore wind turbines, particularly floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs), are developed to harness the stronger, steadier winds available over deep waters. Accurate metocean data forecasts, encompassing wind speed and wave height, are crucial for offshore wind farms’ optimal placement, operation, and maintenance and contribute significantly to FOWT’s efficiency, safety, and lifespan. This study examines the application of three machine learning (ML) models, including Facebook Prophet, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Factors (SARIMAX), and long short-term memory (LSTM), to forecast wind speeds and significant wave heights, using data from a buoy situated in the Pacific Ocean. The models are evaluated based on their ability to predict 1-, 3-, and 30-day future wind speed and wave height values, with performances assessed through Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. Among the models, LSTM displayed superior performance, effectively capturing the complex temporal dependencies in the data. Incorporating exogenous variables, such as atmospheric conditions and gust speed, further refined the predictions.The study’s findings highlight the potential of machine learning (ML) models to enhance the integration and reliability of renewable energy sources through accurate metocean forecasting. Full article

In this study, a prototype was developed for the effective utilisation of a domestic solar power plant. The basic idea is to switch on certain electrical appliances when the surplus of generated energy is predicted one hour in advance, for example, switching on a pump motor for watering a garden. This prediction is important because some devices (motors) wear out if they are switched on and off too frequently. If a solar power plant generates more energy than a household can consume, the surplus energy is fed into the main grid for storage. If a household has an energy shortage, the same energy is bought back at a higher price. In this study, data were collected from solar inverters, historical weather APIs and smart energy meters. This study describes the data preparation process and feature engineering that will later be used to create forecasting models. This study consists of two forecasting models: solar energy generation and household electricity consumption. Both types of model were tested using Facebook Prophet and different neural network architectures: feedforward, long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks. In addition, a baseline model was developed to compare the prediction accuracy. Full article

The escalating global population and climate change necessitate sustainable livestock production methods to meet rising food demand. Precision Livestock Farming (PLF) integrates information and communication technologies (ICT) to improve farming efficiency and animal health. Unlike traditional methods, PLF uses machine learning (ML) algorithms to analyze data in real time, providing valuable insights to decision makers. Dairy farming in diverse climates is challenging and requires well-designed structures to regulate internal environmental parameters. This study explores the application of the Facebook-developed Prophet algorithm to predict indoor temperatures in a dairy farm over a 72 h horizon. Exogenous variables sourced from the Open-Meteo platform improve the accuracy of the model. The paper details case study construction, data acquisition, preprocessing, and model training, highlighting the importance of seasonality in environmental variables. Model validation using key metrics shows consistent accuracy across different dates, as the mean absolute percentage error on daily base ranges from 1.71% to 2.62%. The results indicate excellent model performance, especially considering the operational context. The study concludes that black box models, such as the Prophet algorithm, are effective for predicting indoor temperatures in livestock buildings and provide valuable insights for environmental control and optimization in livestock production. Future research should explore gray box models that integrate physical building characteristics to improve predictive performance and HVAC system control. Full article

The aviation industry has driven economic growth and facilitated cultural exchange over the past century. However, concerns have arisen regarding its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and potential impact on climate change. In response to this challenge, stakeholders have proposed the use of electric ground support vehicles, powered by renewable energy sources, at airports. This solution aims to not only reduce emissions, but to also lower energy costs. Nonetheless, the successful implementation of such a system relies on accurate energy demand forecasting, which is influenced by flight data and fluctuations in renewable energy availability. This paper presents a novel data-driven, machine-learning-based energy prediction model that compared the performance of the Facebook Prophet and vector autoregressive integrated moving average algorithms to develop time series models to forecast the ground movement operation net energy demand in the airport, using historical flight data and an onsite airport-based PV power system (ASPV). The results demonstrate the superiority of the Facebook Prophet model over the vector autoregressive integrated moving average (VARIMA), highlighting its utility for airport operators and planners in managing energy consumption and preparing for future electrified ground movement operations at the airport. Full article

The models for forecasting time series with seasonal variability can be used to build automatic real-time control systems. For example, predicting the water flowing in a wastewater treatment plant can be used to calculate the optimal electricity consumption. The article describes a performance analysis of various machine learning methods (SARIMA, Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, ETS, Facebook Prophet, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory) and data-preprocessing algorithms implemented in Python. The general methodology of model building and the requirements of the input data sets are described. All models use actual data from sensors of the monitoring system. The novelty of this work is in an approach that allows using limited history data sets to obtain predictions with reasonable accuracy. The implemented algorithms made it possible to achieve an R-Squared accuracy of more than 0.95. The forecasting calculation time is minimized, which can be used to run the algorithm in real-time control and embedded systems. Full article