Search Results (421)

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon data relies on minor gravitational field variations to map terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA). However, the coarse spatial resolution of three degrees by three degrees restricts their application for evaluating small-scale changes in water storage. To address this challenge, in this study, GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data from 2003 to 2023 were downscaled to 800-m resolution across the Coastal Lowland Aquifer System (CLAS) in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. This downscaling used machine learning (ML) models, including Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Deep Neural Network (DNN). These models incorporated variables such as anomalies in total precipitation (APT), mean temperature (ATM), normalized difference vegetation index (ANDVI), evapotranspiration (AET) from 2003 to 2023, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM, slope angle, soil type, and lithology to generate monthly 800-m TWSA maps. The ANN model showed strong predictive performance (R² = 0.869–0.989 with low RMSE), although the DNN achieved slightly better statistical accuracy and spatial evaluation metrics; however, ANN was selected for its more realistic and spatially consistent outputs regionally. Building on this improved spatial resolution, analysis of the downscaled TWSA data from 2003 to 2023 identified an overall declining trend in water storage. Trend analysis using linear regression shows that the western CLAS—particularly the Gulf Coast aquifer in Texas and western Louisiana—experiences the strongest depletion, with rates of −0.30 and −0.17 cm/year in Zones 1 and 2, respectively, with Zone 1 being statistically significant. In contrast, the eastern CLAS shows relatively stable conditions, with weak, non-significant increases (+0.05 to +0.18 cm/year), likely reflecting natural variability rather than sustained long-term gain. Therefore, ML-based downscaling of GRACE data enables high-resolution TWS assessment and provides a framework for future extraction of groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA), supporting improved groundwater management. Full article

Groundwater storage is vital for managing water resources, especially as global water scarcity intensifies. Estimating groundwater levels regionally is challenging due to natural heterogeneity. We employed a large groundwater observation sample, along with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiments (GRACE) datasets, to develop a random forest model for predicting groundwater levels in China’s Yellow River Basin. The model showed robustness, achieving an R² of 0.95 in calibration and an R² of 0.91 ± 0.009 in 10-fold cross-validation with 100 repetitions. Temporal predictability was lower, with an R² of 0.72 for April–May 2023; however, the temporal prediction is preliminary and limited by the short validation period (April–May 2023), which should be interpreted with caution. Spatial maps revealed significant seasonal declines in fall and winter, particularly in the middle and lower reaches. This study highlights the potential of machine learning with extensive observations to estimate regional groundwater levels and supports groundwater analysis with robust data. Full article

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites primarily monitor changes in land water storage, including groundwater, soil moisture, lake and river surface water, and canopy and snow water. However, its coarse spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees limits its ability to observe smaller basins. To assess aquifer depletion and evaluate a long-term water resource management framework, GRACE data are crucial. It remains rare for GRACE-focused studies to be conducted in great depth. A comprehensive review of 80 articles published between 2011 and 2025 was conducted using the Scopus and Web of Science databases. These articles focused on downscaling GRACE data using machine learning (ML) methods. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) reporting guidelines were used in this review. This study highlights the attributes of ML models, the input variables used, the evaluation metrics, and the output resolution. Based on the analysis of the articles, random forest (RF) methods were used in the majority of the papers. Gradient boosting (GB), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), support vector regression (SVR), and long short-term memory (LSTM) were the most widely used ML methods. As input variables, rainfall (Pr), soil moisture (SM), and runoff (Qs) are essential. In 2011, there were very few journal articles; since 2021, the number has increased. The number of published studies from China was the highest (24), followed by the USA (12) and Iran (9). A total of 38 journals published reviewed articles. In terms of articles, Remote Sensing generates 19%, Journal of Hydrology has 10%, and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies has 8%. The paper also discusses limitations, challenges, recommendations, and potential future directions for improving the accuracy of the GWS change prediction model. Full article

Under the background of global change, the threshold for the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought is crucial for drought early warning and water resource management. However, traditional threshold studies often adopt subjective and fixed conditional probabilities and lack the revelation of the driving mechanisms under macroscopic natural geographical differentiation. This study integrates terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and multi-source environmental data to construct an objective threshold identification method based on Copula joint distribution and “system resilience loss”, and combines explainable machine learning to systematically explore the critical threshold for meteorological drought, triggering a TWSA deficit and its driving mechanisms from the perspectives of three major natural regions, the Eastern Monsoon Region (EMR), the Northwestern Arid Region (NAR), and the Tibetan Plateau Region (TPR). The results show that: (1) from 2005 to 2024, the TWSA significantly decreased in nearly half of China’s regions, with significant regional differentiation; (2) the response of the TWSA to meteorological drought has a significant lag (an average of 9–12 months), and shows a spatial pattern of slower in the east and faster in the northwest; (3) the probability of a TWSA deficit and the triggering threshold both have obvious grade dependence and spatial heterogeneity, with the lowest threshold in the northwest arid region, which is the most sensitive; (4) the threshold is driven by the synergy of multiple factors, with “water dominance and energy modulation”, and the dominant factors show regional differentiation; and (5) irrigation agriculture significantly reduces the drought triggering threshold and exacerbates system vulnerability. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the geographical differentiation laws of drought propagation and regional early warning management. Full article

We present and discuss time-lapse gravity variations recorded by a large-scale absolute gravity network operating in Central Italy. The network comprises four stations distributed across the Lazio, Umbria, and Abruzzo regions, areas affected by the significant seismic activity of 2009 and 2016–2017. From 2018 to 2023, six campaigns were carefully conducted using an FG5 absolute gravimeter. We detected significant gravity decreases around 2020 reaching between −15 and −20 μGal in three sites and approximately −37 μGal at the fourth. The Sentinel-1 time series of permanent scatterers (PS) allowed us to exclude significant contribution from vertical deformations to the observed gravity changes. We analyzed both ground-based data (rainfall gauges and well water levels) and satellite-based observations (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Follow-On, GRACE-FO, mission) together with the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and precipitation models. The results reveal a significant decrease in the regional groundwater content from 2018 to the end of 2020, which coincides temporally with the observed gravity decrease. We show that the absolute gravity variation trends observed at all stations are consistent with regional-scale hydrological processes, pointing to a significant decrease in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during the same time interval. At L’Aquila (AQUI), the gravity anomaly is larger than expected from regional hydrological products alone, suggesting an additional local component possibly related to the hydrogeological response of the fractured karst system undergoing significant post-seismic activity. Full article

Rapid agricultural expansion threatens water security in one of the world’s largest hydroelectric systems, the Itaipu dam, located on the Brazil–Paraguay border. Yet regional hydrological responses to land cover change and climate variability remain insufficiently characterized at management-relevant scales. The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), which sustains agriculture, hydropower, and municipal water supply across both countries, exemplifies this challenge as accelerating cropland conversion raises concerns about long-term water availability. This study investigates hydrological transitions and their statistical associations with land cover changes in the Itaipu study region from 2002 to 2023. We integrate GRACE/GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On), Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSAs), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) precipitation, and LandScan population density using Pettitt’s breakpoint test and Mann–Kendall trend analysis to detect temporal breakpoints and quantify co-variability between hydrology and land surface dynamics. Together, these methods identify a significant basin-wide shift in TWSAs in mid-2009, with storage increases of 151.6 cm at Itaipu and 103.1 cm at Yguazú Reservoir. Over the study period, cropland expanded from 13.5% to 37.9% of total land cover, while savanna declined from 28.1% to 24.2%. After 2009, correlations between land cover and TWSAs strengthened substantially, particularly for wetlands (r = 0.88), croplands (r = 0.73), and savannas (r = −0.81; all p < 0.001), indicating strong coupling between landscape transformation and basin-scale storage variability. Principal Component Analysis shows land use change explains 39–41% of TWSA variance, exceeding hydroclimatic contributions. Granger causality analysis reveals bidirectional coupling between wetlands and water storage at Itaipu, while cropland and savanna dynamics exert predictive influence on downstream hydrology in the Yguazú basin. Water balance decomposition further indicates a post-2009 regime shift, with residual storage transitioning from −10.6 to +4.7 and 78% greater runoff generation per unit precipitation, consistent with reduced infiltration capacity. Together, these findings underscore intensifying land–water feedback and the need for adaptive watershed management under expanding agriculture and climate variability. Full article

The dynamic approach integrates Global Positioning System and K-band range-rate (KRR) observations to enable precise orbit determination (POD) and gravity field recovery. However, background model uncertainties and temporal aliasing introduce frequency-dependent noise into the post-fit KRR residuals, thereby degrading overall solution accuracy. To mitigate these effects, empirical signals are typically modeled using either dynamic (DYN) or kinematic (KIN) parameterization strategies. Nevertheless, the combined use of DYN and KIN parameterizations remains largely unassessed, and their potential synergistic impact on POD and gravity field recovery merits systematic evaluation. This study evaluates the individual and joint impacts of DYN and KIN (DYN+KIN) on The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Follow-On orbit accuracy and monthly gravity field recovery using nearly one year of 2019 data (excluding February due to severe data gaps). The refined solutions act as empirical temporal filters, effectively suppressing low-frequency components in KRR residuals, particularly below 1-cycle-per-revolution. Relative to nominal ambiguity-fixed reduced-dynamic orbits, the refined solutions mainly enhance the cross-track component, with DYN+KIN showing the largest improvement, while along-track precision experiences only minor (sub-millimeter) degradation. Overall three-dimensional orbit accuracy improves from 3.8 cm to 3.0 cm (DYN), 2.8 cm (KIN), and 2.8 cm (DYN+KIN). In terms of gravity field recovery, the DYN+KIN solution begins to exhibit more pronounced deviations from the other solutions beyond degree and order 30. Over oceanic regions, residual mass anomaly analysis shows that the DYN+KIN solution is associated with an approximately 16% higher noise level compared to the individual DYN and KIN strategies, which exhibit modest noise reductions relative to the nominal solution. The DYN+KIN also exhibits a dampened ~160-day periodicity in the temporal evolution of low-degree coefficients (e.g., C_2,0), likely due to spectral overlap between empirical parameter frequencies and low-degree gravity signal components. These results indicate that over-parameterization introduces spectral redundancy and absorbs geophysical signals, underscoring the need to balance parameter flexibility and signal fidelity in gravity recovery strategies. Full article

A hybrid machine learning framework has been developed in this study to estimate Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) in Morocco’s Casablanca–Settat region, which faces serious groundwater stress due to rapid urbanization, intensive agriculture, and climate variability. In this study, TWSA is used as an integrated proxy for groundwater-related storage changes, while acknowledging that it also includes contributions from soil moisture and surface water. The approach combines satellite-based observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) with key environmental indicators such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and land use data to track changes in groundwater availability with improved spatial detail. After preprocessing the data through feature selection, normalization, and outlier handling, the model applies six base learners, i.e., Huber regressor, automatic relevance determination regression, kernel ridge, long short-term memory, k-nearest neighbors, and gradient boosting. Their predictions are aggregated using a random forest meta-learner to improve accuracy and stability. The ensemble achieved strong results, with a root mean square error of 0.13, a mean absolute error of 0.108, and a determination coefficient of 0.97—far better than single-model baselines—based on a temporally independent train-test split. Spatial analysis highlighted clear patterns of groundwater depletion linked to land cover and usage. These results can guide targeted aquifer recharge efforts, drought response planning, and smarter irrigation management. The model also aligns with national goals under Morocco’s water sustainability initiatives and can be adapted for use in other regions with similar environmental challenges. Full article

Against the backdrop of the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events and persistent over-extraction of groundwater, the North China Plain (NCP) is facing significant land subsidence. This study systematically analyzed the surface subsidence response patterns and mechanisms of the NCP during extreme rainfall events by integrating Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, environmental load models, well data, and precipitation records. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2002 to 2020, the groundwater storage change (GWSC) in most of the study area declined at an average rate of trend about 5 cm/yr, while from 2021 to 2024, influenced by heavy rainfall recharge, GWSC recovered with a mean rate of trend about 7 cm/yr; (2) During the extreme rainfall event from 1 July to 31 August 2023, the environmental loading model effectively captured the vertical deformation caused by hydrological loading, showing general consistency with GNSS monitoring results in spatial distribution. Most GNSS stations experienced rapid subsidence during the event (GNSS: 5 mm, model: 2 mm), followed by a gradual rebound after the extreme rainfall, consistent with elastic theory; (3) The deformation at the TJBH station exhibited anomalies attributable to porous elastic effects; (4) Integrated well data confirmed that rainfall recharge primarily influences shallow groundwater. This study reveals the multiple mechanisms underlying extreme hydrological induced land subsidence in the NCP. Full article

Determining long-term changes in global ice and water storage from satellite gravimetry remains challenging due to the limited temporal coverage of high-resolution missions. Here, we combine Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to reconstruct large-scale, non-linear mass variations from 1995 to 2024, extending gravity-based observations into the pre-GRACE era while preserving spatial detail through backward extrapolation. The combined model reveals widespread and statistically significant accelerations in global water and ice mass changes and enables the identification of key turning points in their temporal evolution. Results indicate that in Svalbard, a non-linear transition in ice mass balance occurred in late 2004, followed by a pronounced acceleration of mass loss due to climate warming. Glaciers in the Gulf of Alaska exhibit persistent mass loss with a marked intensification after 2012, while in the Antarctic Peninsula, ice mass loss substantially slowed and a potential trend reversal emerged around 2021. The reconstructed mass anomalies show strong consistency with independent satellite altimetry and climate indicators, including a clear response to the 1997/1998 El Niño event prior to the GRACE mission. These findings demonstrate that integrating SLR with GRACE enables robust detection of non-linear, climate-driven mass redistribution on a global scale and provides a physically consistent extension of satellite gravimetry records beyond the GRACE era. Full article

Groundwater constitutes a vital freshwater resource essential for sustaining agricultural productivity, industrial processes, and domestic water supply. Quantifying spatiotemporal dynamics of Groundwater Storage (GWS) across China provides a critical scientific basis for sustainable water resource management and conservation. Employing a unified methodology combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations and global hydrological models (GLDAS, WGHM), this study investigates spatiotemporal variations in Groundwater Storage Anomalies (GWSA) across China and its nine major river basins from February 2003 to December 2019. The results indicate an overall declining trend in China’s GWSA at −2.27 to −0.38 mm/yr. Significant depletion hotspots are identified in northern Xinjiang, southeastern Tibet, and the Haihe River Basin. Conversely, statistically significant increasing trends are detected in the Endorheic Basin of the Tibetan Plateau and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. Although GWSA inversions derived from different Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models show general consistency, there are still pronounced regional heterogeneities in model performance. The findings offer critical scientific foundations for water resources managers and policymakers to formulate sustainable groundwater management strategies in China. Full article

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) tracks drought events by detecting changes in the global gravitational field and capturing abnormal information on the reserves of surface water, soil water, and groundwater, which makes it possible for a more comprehensive and unified global and regional monitoring of groundwater drought. This study adopted the gravity satellite GRACE data and combined it with the hydrological model dataset. Additionally, we assessed the temporal evolution and spatial pattern of groundwater drought in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and its sub-basins from 2003 to 2022, determined the change points of the hidden seasonal and trend components in groundwater drought, and identified the direct/indirect driving contributions of the main climatic and circulation factors to groundwater drought. The results show that (1) as a normalized index, the groundwater drought index (GDI) can reflect direct evidence of any surplus and deficit in groundwater availability. During the study period, the minimum value (−1.66) of the GDI occurred in July 2020 (severe drought). (2) The average value of GDI in the entire basin ranged from −1.66 (severe drought) to 0.52 (no drought). (3) The average Z_s values (Mann–Kendall Z-statistic) of GDI were −0.23, −0.16, −0.43, and 0.14, respectively, and the proportions of areas with aggravated drought reached 65.21%, 61.05%, 89.70% and 43.67%, respectively. (4) Partial wavelet coherence analysis can simultaneously reveal the local correlations of time series at different time scales and frequencies. Based on partial wavelet analysis, precipitation was the best factor for explaining the dynamic changes in groundwater drought. (5) The North Pacific Index (NPI), the Pacific/North American Index (PNA), and the Sunspot Index (SSI) can serve as the main predictors that can effectively capture the drought changes in groundwater in the YRB. The GRACE satellite can provide a new tool for monitoring, tracking, and assessing groundwater drought situations, which is of great significance for guiding the development of the drought early warning system in the YRB and effectively preventing and responding to drought disasters. Full article

The ongoing global decline in groundwater levels poses significant challenges for sustainable water management. Satellite gravity missions, such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO), provide valuable estimates of groundwater storage changes at regional scales. However, the relatively coarse spatial resolution of these satellite data limits their direct applicability to local groundwater management. In this study, we address this limitation for China by analyzing groundwater monitoring data from 108 cities with shallow groundwater use and 37 cities with deep groundwater use from the period 2019–2022, integrating in situ groundwater level records, official monitoring reports, monthly dynamic data, and GRACE-FO-derived groundwater storage estimates. Our findings reveal rapid groundwater depletion in northern China, especially in Xinjiang and Hebei Provinces. Fluctuations in shallow groundwater levels in Beijing and Jiangsu are closely related to precipitation variability. For deep aquifer regions, GRACE-FO-derived groundwater storage changes show a moderate Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.45 and groundwater level variations. Regional analysis for 2019–2021 in the Northeast Plain and the Huang–Huai–Hai Basin indicates better agreement between satellite-derived storage and groundwater levels, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.58 in the Huang–Huai–Hai Basin. Groundwater level dynamics are strongly influenced by both precipitation and pumping, with an approximate three-month lag between precipitation events and groundwater storage responses. Overall, satellite gravity data are suitable for use in regional groundwater assessment and could serve as valuable indicators in areas with intensive deep groundwater exploitation. To enable fine-scale groundwater management, future work should focus on improving the spatial resolution through downscaling and other advanced techniques. Full article

The increasingly severe phenomenon of groundwater drought poses a dual threat to the development and construction of a region, as well as its ecological environment. Traditional groundwater drought monitoring methods rely on observation wells, which makes it difficult to obtain dynamic drought information in areas with limited measurement data. Based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite technology and data, the suitability of the standardized groundwater index (GRACE_SGI) was explored for drought characterization in the Mu Us Sandy Land. Multiscale and seasonal trend changes in groundwater drought in the study area from 2002 to 2021 were comprehensively identified. Subsequently, the characteristics of hysteresis time between the GRACE_SGI and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) were clarified. The results show that (1) different fitting functions impact the parameterized GRACE_SGI fitting results. The Anderson–Darling method was used to find the best-fitting function for groundwater data in the study area: the Pearson III distribution. (2) The gain and loss characteristics of the GRACE_SGI are similar, showing downward trends at different time scales, including seasonal scales. (3) The absolute values based on the maximum correlation coefficients between the SPI and the GRACE_SGI at different time scales were 0.1296, 0.2483, 0.2427, and 0.5224, with time lags of 0, 0, 12, and 11 months, respectively. The vulnerability of semiarid ecosystems to hydroclimatic changes is highlighted by these findings, and a satellite-based framework for monitoring groundwater drought in data-scarce regions is provided. Full article

Terrestrial water storage includes soil water storage, groundwater storage, surface water storage, snow water equivalent, plant canopy water storage, biological water storage, etc., which can comprehensively reflect the total change in water volume during processes such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and human water use in the basin hydrological cycle. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite provides a powerful tool and a new approach for observing changes in terrestrial water storage and groundwater storage. The North China Plain (NCP) is a major agricultural region in the northern arid area of China, and long-term overexploitation of groundwater has led to increasingly prominent ecological vulnerability issues. This study uses GRACE and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) hydrological model data to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater drought in the NCP and its various sub-regions from 2003 to 2022, identify the locations, occurrence probabilities, and confidence intervals of seasonal and trend mutation points, quantify the complex interactive effects of multiple climate factors on groundwater drought, and reveal the propagation time from groundwater drought to agricultural drought. The results show that: (1) from 2003 to 2022, the linear tendency rate of groundwater drought index (GDI) was −0.035 per 10 years, indicating that groundwater drought showed a gradually worsening trend during the study period; (2) on an annual scale, the most severe groundwater drought occurred in 2021 (GDI = −1.59). In that year, the monthly average GDI in the NCP ranged from −0.58 to −2.78, and the groundwater drought was most severe in July (GDI = −2.02); (3) based on partial wavelet coherence, the best univariate, bivariate for groundwater drought were soil moisture (PASC = 19.13%); and (4) in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the propagation time was mainly concentrated in 1–5 months, with average lag times of 2.87, 3.20, and 2.92 months, respectively. This study can not only reduce and mitigate the harm of groundwater drought to agricultural production, social life, and ecosystems by monitoring changes in groundwater storage, but also provide a reference for the quantitative identification of the dominant factors of groundwater drought. Full article