Search Results (7)

In 2022, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely impacted the EU’s energy supply chain, and the EU’s natural gas import pattern has begun to reconstruct, and exploring the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas trade and its driving factors is the basis for improving the resilience of its supply chain and ensuring the stable supply of energy resources. This paper summarizes the law of the change of its import volume by using the complex network method, constructs a multi-dimensional index system such as demand, economy, and security, and uses the geographic detector model to mine the driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of natural gas imports in EU countries and propose different sustainable development paths. The results show that from 2000 to 2023, Europe’s natural gas imports generally show an upward trend, and the import structure has undergone great changes, from pipeline gas dominance to LNG diversification. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the number of import source countries has increased, the market network has become looser, France has become the core hub of the EU natural gas market, the importance of Russia has declined rapidly, and the status of countries in the United States, North Africa, and the Middle East has increased rapidly; natural gas consumption is the leading factor in the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas imports, and the influence of import distance and geopolitical risk is gradually expanding, and the proportion of energy consumption is significantly higher than that of other factors in the interaction with other factors. Combined with the driving factors, three different evolutionary directions of natural gas imports in EU countries are identified, and energy security paths such as improving supply chain control capabilities, ensuring export stability, and using location advantages to become hub nodes are proposed for different development trends. Full article

This study examines how the Russia–Ukraine conflict has affected the robustness of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade network—an essential component of the global energy transition. As environmental concerns intensify worldwide, LNG is gaining strategic importance due to its cleaner emissions and greater flexibility compared to traditional fossil fuels. However, the global LNG trade network remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, particularly due to its concentrated structure. In this context, we construct the LNG trade network from 2020 to 2023 and employ complex network analysis to explore its structural characteristics. We assess network robustness under various attack strategies, budget constraints, and phases of the conflict. Furthermore, we utilize the difference-in-differences (DID) method to evaluate the conflict’s impact on network robustness. Our findings reveal that the global LNG trade network exhibits a distinct center–periphery structure and regional clustering. Although the network scale has continuously expanded, its connectivity still requires improvement. The Russia–Ukraine conflict has significantly weakened network robustness, with negative impacts intensifying across attack phases and under greater budget constraints. The optimal attack strategy causes the most severe degradation, followed by high-importance attacks, while random and low-importance attacks exert limited influence. Our DID-based analysis further confirms the conflict’s significant negative impact. To strengthen its resilience, the global LNG trade network should diversify its partnerships and invest in infrastructure enhancements. Full article

The shift of European countries to more environmentally friendly sources of energy is leading to an increase in the share of natural gas in the energy mix. At the same time, the flexibility and cost-effectiveness of maritime transport are making liquefied natural gas (LNG) more competitive compared to traditional forms of natural gas, despite recent geopolitical, health and economic events threatening its supply chain. The aim of this study is to analyze the European LNG import network using network theory indicators to identify trading communities in the network and to investigate the security of supply through network failure simulation. The network model was developed using a programming code in MATLAB R2022B software. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: (a) a shift in the center of gravity of LNG trade from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic shores was identified; (b) a gradual consolidation of Europe’s import network was noted; (c) an increasing dependence of Europe on a limited number of countries was observed; and (d) the most critical nodes for network resilience were identified through modeling. Based on these findings, recommendations are proposed to strengthen Europe’s energy security and independence. Full article

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has influenced global LNG shipping patterns; nevertheless, current research about its effects on the nodes and local regions of the LNG shipping network remains insufficient. This study employs a series of network metrics and a robustness evaluation model to examine the evolution in the structure and functionality of the LNG shipping network amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict, integrating LNG vessel origin–destination data from 2021 to 2023 to analyze the network’s structure and robustness. The research indicated that: (1) The alteration in trade relations instigated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict modified global LNG flows, resulting in a fragmented overall network structure and diminished transportation efficiency. The Russia–Ukraine conflict catalyzed the enhancement of European ports, leading to a substantial rise in the significance of premier European ports within the LNG transport network. Significant export ports, such as Ras Laffan, hold substantial importance within the network. (2) Among various assault techniques, degree-based intentional attacks inflict the greatest harm on the LNG shipping network. The robustness of the LNG shipping network declined following the Russia–Ukraine conflict, rendering it particularly susceptible in 2023. The findings indicate that the Russia–Ukraine conflict altered the structure of the LNG transportation network and diminished its robustness. The work holds substantial theoretical importance for examining the influence of geopolitical events on LNG transportation and for improving the maritime industry’s ability to navigate complicated circumstances. Full article

Natural gas is considered a transitional energy source in the transition to clean energy owing to its clean, efficient, and ecologically beneficial properties. The trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG) serves as the backbone of the global natural gas trade and significantly influences the dynamics of the global energy trade system. This paper constructs long-term global LNG trade networks, and explores the spatiotemporal evolution and topological structures of the international LNG trade by utilizing multilevel network analysis methods, to provide insights for comprehensively understanding the market dynamics of the global LNG trade system. The findings indicate the following: (1) The global LNG trade volume shows an overall upward trend, and the global LNG trade network exhibits uneven spatial distribution, clear hierarchical differentiation, and an increasingly complicated structure. Global LNG trade is gradually changing from regionalization to globalization, and the international LNG market is undergoing structural reshaping. (2) The global LNG trade network continues to expand in size and density, and the rapidly growing LNG supply and trade relations are driving the formation of the global natural gas market. (3) Global LNG trade is still in a phase of rapid change, with the global efficiency of the network increasing and then decreasing. The trade network has traditionally been centered on ten countries, including Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Qatar. (4) The global LNG trade network exhibits clear core-periphery structures with considerable polarization effects, and the trade network structure is continuously evolving and is growing unbalanced. Finally, we put forward relevant policy suggestions to promote global LNG trade interconnectivity and enhance environmental protection and respond to global climate change. Full article

Global natural gas trade volume amounted to 1300 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 and it is expected to increase regarding the growing concern for low-carbon emission fuel. However, natural gas requires special infrastructure in the transportation stage such as natural gas pipelines or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants and tankers. We use a Network Game theory where natural gas supply networks are treated as edges and adopt the Link-based Flexible Network Allocation Rule (LBFN) as a solution concept that can replace the Shapley Value. Our study reveals that Russia’s efforts to build diversionary routes effectively decrease the relative bargaining power of its traditional transit countries and increase its relative bargaining power. If there had been no Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Nord Stream-2 would have come online as planned and Russia would have enjoyed high relative bargaining power as a dominant gas supplier. This is one of the underlying reasons why several European countries and the U.S. expressed strong opposition to the Nord Stream-2 project. However, if Russia cuts the gas supply to European countries as a result of recent events and the U.S. LNG penetrates into the European gas market, Russia will inevitably suffer from a huge decrease in its relative bargaining power. Full article

Unstable factors such as international relations, geopolitics, and transportation routes make natural gas trade complex and changeable. Diversified and flexible sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can guarantee the energy supply security of natural gas-consuming countries. Therefore, it is very important to find potential natural gas trade links to help the government find potential partners and prepare strategically in advance. In this paper, the global LNG network is taken as the research object. In order to fully consider the importance of nodes and the influence of economic and political factors, the “centrality degree” and “node attraction degree” are added into the link prediction algorithm, and multifactor coupling is carried out. The reliability of the improved algorithm is verified using the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation index, and the prediction results are analyzed. The results are as follows: Trinidad, Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea (Eq. Guinea) are more likely to establish new LNG trading relationships with other countries. For all potential trade relationships, potential relations involving the above countries are more likely to be realized within 5 years, while potential relations involving China, India, Japan, and South Korea are more likely to be realized within 2 years. China, India, and South Korea are more likely to import LNG from Algeria, and Taiwan Province is more likely to import LNG from Algeria, Angola, Eq. Guinea, and America. On the basis of the above study, states and governments can give priority to the above countries and regions when dealing with the possible LNG supply crisis. Full article